Fantasy Football

How apropos of recent headlines that the Vikings would fall on this week, one might think we even planned it. But rest assured we do not have that kind of foresight, nor have we paid enough attention to Favre’s contract situation to actually know when his first final decision with the Vikings was going to be made. But it’s done, now we can all blissfully move on. At least for now. Wait until Minnesota is 3-4 heading into week 8 and is scrambling for an “answer”.

Not that I’m totally bearish on the Vikings, they’re still loaded on both sides of the ball and if you took the quarterback off of everyone’s team, they have easily the best squad in the league.* I guess the biggest problem with that theory is the quarterback is unequivocally the most vital position in the league, probably in any professional team sport. So while we may have the most talented team in the league, it’s arguably the least inconsequential “most talented team” in NFL history.

It would be a shame to not let this help facilitate a Super Bowl run.

And while they still have more than any team in their division at running back, on the O-line and on the defensive side of the ball, all three of those teams have improved, while they’ve stayed virtually the same. I wouldn’t expect the Lions to make a run for their crown, but Green Bay and Chicago are definitely going to test their wherewithal. They only won the division by one game, it’s not much of a stretch to assume that the Bears and Packers have caught up to them.

Actually, to be fair to the Vikings, as I’ve stated before, I think this team is drastically improved with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback in place of Tavaris Jackson. They don’t necessarily need Joe Montana back their slinging passes, but someone defenses actually have to worry about completing plays is a marked improvement over what they had last season. I’m pretty sure, and in no way am I being facetious when I say this, Jeff George would be a step-up from Tavaris Jackson. Of course, Brad Childress has to have the foresight to actually start Rosenfels, that’s something that remains to be proven. For a guy who seems so hesitant to change the status quo…lets just say that if I were a Vikings fan, I would be praying for Vick to get a workout.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor. One is a top five player, the other you probably don’t even have to draft. But one thing is for certain, whoever is running behind this line is potent. Shaun Alexander could see a career revival playing for the Vikings, and he’s the poster-boy for the “running backs are expendable” argument. An argument that he would once again prove, if he were to play for the Vikings.

Tread Lightly: Sidney Rice, whichever quarterback they throw out there. Sidney Rice is the one starting receiving option on this team I have absolutely no faith in. Shit, Glen Holt is listed as their fourth option and I’d be more inclined to pick him up off of waivers despite only sort of recognizing his name (and I’m pretty sure I’m conflating it with Torry). then actually wasting a valuable draft pick on this fugazi. I don’t really need to expound why I wouldn’t draft one of their quarterbacks again, do I?

Dark Horses: Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Vinsanthe Shiancoe. The first two because I think Rosenfels can actually get them the ball. It might be at the expense of 30 interceptions on the season, but by God, he will complete passes to them on occasion. And with Shiancoe, well, he will be the one person who could benefit from Tavaris Jackson starting, which makes him as much of an enigma on his own team as being a 6′4, 250LB Englishmen  in the United States and playing professional American football for a living. I mean, look at his numbers last season (which should grow exponentially if Jackson holds onto the reigns), compared to Owen Daniels’ when Rosenfels was playing for Houston (to lazy to find a link for it). It’s not really up for debate who Shiancoe is rooting for.

There really isn’t much more to this team beyond the many issues at passing game. If Rosenfels starts and can make them respectable on that front or if they can somehow bring in a third option, then the Vikings are a considerable favorite to win the division. If Rosenfels can’t answer the call or they fail to bring in another viable QB, then their going to teeter along and have to hope the tornado wrecks everyone else’s house but there’s. Just like in 2008!

*Eat it, Chargers fans. You may have the borderline tropical paradise of a city that you reside in and Vikings fans may live in blisteringly cold weather that no one in this century should be relegated too, but watching Adrian Peterson eight times a year in person makes up for a lot of that.

That’s it for the week, back Monday with the Bears.

Regardless of what this team does on or off the field, Dan Snyder will undoubtedly be the face of it. For better or worse, their success and failures are married to his wallet and whether or not he’s actually getting value out of his regular unabashed spending. Most would suggest that no, he hasn’t, since the Redskins have yet to make it to the second round of the playoffs since he purchased the team, much less win a Super Bowl.

Pretty much every season this team has managed to surprise a few naysayers, most notably after the unfortunate and untimely death of probably the hardest hitting safety of my lifetime, Sean Taylor (My friends and I used to joke about how we’d rather pick a fight with Ray Lewis over Taylor, if for no other reason than Lewis might eventually show some mercy, and we meant this in the most complimentary way possible). In 2007 the Redskins managed to sneak into the playoffs because collapsing down the stretch is what NFL teams do in a parity driven league, and winning four straight from weeks 14-17 will get you in the post-season if you stayed respectable in weeks 1-13. This left everyone with false high hopes going into 2008.

I say false because 2007 was such a flash in the pants. In 2008 they were going up against the returning Super Bowl champs in the Giants, the presumably loaded Dallas Cowboys, and the most resilient team of the decade in the Eagles. Hoping to get into the playoffs against that line of competitors is daunting at best, and impossible with Jason Campbell as your starting quarterback at worst. The fact they finished 8-8 was a testament to the deep pockets of Snyder and a parity driven league.

That said, this team is resilient in their own right. Of the eight losses they accrued last year only two of them were by a double digit margin (Steelers 23-6 and Giants 23-7). They also never gave up more than 27 points all season, and with the addition of Albert Haynesworth the defense should be even more stifling. Portis and Betts are still manning the backfield and despite my earlier ribbing, Jason Campbell was more than serviceable in 2008. If anything, the constant speculation around the draft that they wanted to trade up to draft Marc Sanchez is going to drop his productivity more than any lack of capability on Campbell’s part.

Outside of a lack of size at receiver and a shaky offensive line, there really isn’t a god explanation for the Redskins shortcomings. But when every team is loaded yet flawed as the NFL is these days, your margin of error can’t be so great. You have to be able to score at will to be considered a Super Bowl threat. And when your QB is only throwing 13 TD passes a season, that speaks to a problem.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Clinton Portis. 1,400 yards and 9 touchdowns is a great season for a second or third round pick, other than mileage accumulated over the years I don’t see why he couldn’t duplicate that season. Being the most overpaid player in the league doesn’t make you a bad fantasy pick, per say, but it does mean you bring too little to the table for what your paycheck represents. Cris Cooley is another player you want on your fantasy roster. His statistical output isn’t that much worse than Gates, Witten or Gonzalez, yet you can get him about three or four rounds later than all of those guys…Alright so he only had one touchdown last season, I would bank on an improvement in 2009.

Also, the defense. If you’re looking for a team that doesn’t give up a lot of points and always has QB’s worried, the Washington is a safe, late round bet that you won’t have to over-draft.

At least he’s your psycho now, Redskins fans.

Tread Lightly: Just both starting receivers. When are Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El going to officially be “too old” so I don’t have to look at them on my draft board anymore, tempting me with their blinding speed but poor route running and efficiency. I wish both men well but really, that day can’t come soon enough.

Dark Horses: Ledell Betts only because he’s proven to handle the workload when Portis is injured, I don’t expect him to see any more carries this year than he did last year otherwise. Jason Campbell, obviously you don’t want him as your starter, but should something happen to your starting QB, he at least won’t cost you points, even if he’s only earning very few.

I don’t want to delve too deeply into this, but Washington’s backup receivers, if their college careers are any indication, have loads of potential. You can probably wait to pick up Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly off of free agency, but they both offer the size that neither Randle-El and Santana Moss are lacking, not to mention that they’re both twenty-two years old. I like them a lot as fill-ins should either one of them go down with injury, or if Moss just doesn’t feel like playing again.

Anyhow, since we know the defense is top ten, that the running game is perfectly suited to make a Super Bowl run and that Campbell is improving, I think that these might be the missing secret components to the Redskins success. If they move Randle-El back to the slot where he belongs and put Kelly or Thomas opposite of Moss, they should have a receiving corps that looks respectable, instead of a makeshift group of guys that consist of a flake (Moss), a modified QB (Randle-El) and a bunch of great college receivers being severely under-utilized.

Will they make a title run? I remain pessimistic. If for no other reason that this team seems absolutely jinxed in some way. No matter who they bring in or how much money they spend, it never seems to have much of an impact. But with so much uncertainty, everyone’s guessing and their really isn’t a good reason they won’t go 11-5; even though I can say the same thing about the possibility of them going 5-11.

This team, more so than any other one, is an absolute enigma. You’re better off guessing which totals are in the Deal or No Deal suitcases than you are accurately predicting the Redskins season. All we can agree on, is that their nickname is still absurdly racist, to a comedic and undeniable degree.

We didn’t get around to previewing the Redskins today. My apologies for that. The schedule for this site is so minute that you’d think we’d be able to keep up with it on a regular basis. We have a legitimate excuse this time, however. We woke up with a blistering headache, searing back pain and extremely mild nausea. Other than that, we let you, the loyal reader down without an alibi.

Obviously there’s been some news to make the rounds in the past day or two that we’ve forgone commenting on, mainly because this isn’t really a news site (we don’t care enough to keep it regularly updated, obviously). But first and foremost, the death of Jim Johnson could end up having a profound effect on the landscape of the NFC East. We’ve already sang the praises of Johnson a couple days ago, but allow me to reiterate a little more clearly: most valuable coordinator in the league during his tinier (he makes Jason Garrett poser ass look like Rich Kotite). He personified the bullshit phrase, more with less. He was never adequately staffed and he did more with the minimal amount of talent at his disposal than any other coordinator in the league. RIP, Mr. Johnson, quite arguably the best who ever did it.

We’ve been avoiding the Brett Favre drama for the majority of the off-season, mainly because it was all such conjecture and speculation. But even with the news that he’s not signing with Minnesota before camp, it still feels premature to comment on his season long absence. Anyhow, we don’t really have anything original to say about it, other than we stll think Rosenfels is a significant improvement over Tavaris Jackson. If fact if they can reign in his penchant for untimely turnovers, the roster is so loaded that they can be a contender in the NFC East. Why not? They made the playoffs last year and damn near knocked off the Eagles in the first round (I’m sure the Giants would have appreciated it, though).

Point being, don’t count out the Vikings just because they didn’t land the ol’ gunslinger. I mean, I don’t like them to improve much from 2008, but they’re in the same position they were in then as they are now; it’s just the conference and division is infinitely improved.

In semi-related news, Mike Vick is back on the open market pending a five game suspension. Reportedly already half the teams have preemptively rescended an invite to camp, Washington included. And you know, I can think of one team that’s been lacking a suitable starting quarterback for the past five years, have had the best running back and a top five defense in the league for two and just got done failing to court a 40 year-old quarterback out of retirement. It seems like they could use him. It really seems like even if he isn’t better than Rosenfels, you could at least bring him into camp and find out for yourselves.

I have to be honest with you, as despicable and wretched and borderline evil as what I think he did was, I’d love to have him with the Eagles now that he’s paid the piper to both the state and league. McNabb, Vick and Westbrook exploding out of the backfield seems almost unstoppable, espcially with their crop of receivers. As good of a fit as he may be for the Vikings to potentially give a chance back under center, the Eagles could use some added explosiveness. Much like every team in the league. But this is all moot, because he’s going to end up in New England and haunt us all in our sleep with what he brings to the table for a title contender.

Back tomorrow with Redskins preview.

Looking back on it, I think putting the Cowboys on Hard Knocks last season was detrimental to their reputation as “America’s team” or whatever moniker we’re applying to them these days. For as long as I can remember, what’s always been their appeal was some false notion of “mystique”, but putting the entire squad on camera for roughly six hours showed us that no, in fact, the Cowboys we’re just as dull and thoughtless as any run of the mill collection of athletes, perhaps even more so.

Maybe the lack of excitement was specific to that one season, and it was a complete coincidence HBO knocked on their door for the documentary series. Actually, it wasn’t a coincidence at all. The Cowboys were housing Terrell Owens for a second season and had just brought in Tank “keeps one in the Chamber” Johnson and Pacman Jones of “making it rain” fame; not to mention that photogenic Jessica Simpsonator Tony Romo. This team had all the makings of an NFL franchise just dying to receive an extended profile.

Now we’re looking at the 2009 season, and three of those have been released (naturally they kept the white one). As much baggage as those three come with, all of them are immensely talented, and most would consider a team losing talented players to be a loss. But we’re at a stage in the NFL now where everyone thinks addition is possible through subtraction (I’m looking at you, Broncos fans). Usually I disagree, but in this instance; I can’t.

It was just too much. Between the paparazzi and the history and expectations and injuries and off-the-field distractions, the Cowboys were destined to fail. Looking back on it there was no real reason for them to be so highly touted: a shaky coach constantly under pressure from losing his job to his coordinator (this is possibly the dumbest fucking preemptive decision by an owner in the history of dumb fucking preemptive decisions by owners), an unproven quarterback with only a handful of starts and a defense that has never been what everyone said it should be (but they have DeMarcus Ware! He was a beast in that one pre-season game from three years ago!).

In short, they might not be as talented but they clubhouse rapport should be improved, the expectations aren’t as high so a playoff birth (as opposed to a Super Bowl win) should suffice and when all is said and done, they’re still one of the ten most talented teams in the league (I have them behind San Diego, New England, Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Philly, The Giants, Pittsburgh & Minnesota). So expectations are still high, just not blisteringly so. Now that everyone can finally take a sigh of relief without worrying about the consequences, Dallas should be back in the playoff hunt in 2009.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Jason Witten, Roy Williams, Marion Barber. The former is my favorite of these three. I honestly think he should be the first tight end drafted (never draft a tight end before the fourth round. Terrible, terrible value otherwise). Williams is starting to get really old, really quick, but the best receiver on a team that can’t help but air it out? I like his potential, especially without Owens doing a circus act every time he out-produces the new Buffalo Bill (that came out wrong). And Barber I had to place here only because his stock has dropped, I can’t believe Dallas didn’t try to trade Choice or Jones, because what do they need with all three of these backs?

God, I fucking hate the Cowboys.

Tread Lightly: Tony Romo is really the only offensive fit here. Just how scarred is he from that season ending game against the Eagles, his breakup with Jessica Simpson, and the media consensus that he was never more than a byproduct of their hype? It’s going to be interesting to watch unfold and I won’t be surprised if he breaks out this season, but there are just too many more reliable QB’s for fantasy football, especially now that he’s working with an average receiving corps. in lieu of a powerhouse.

The defense falls into this boat as well. Are we really supposed to have any faith in this busted secondary and a front seven that relies on the productivity of maybe three standouts (Ware, Spears & Ellis)? I’d rather draft Philly’s defense, and despite writing their preview yesterday, I’ve already forgotten the names of all their linebackers. Maybe it’s because they weren’t giving up 28 ppg against playoff teams in 2008. That could have something to do with it, I think.

Dark Horses: Tashard Choice, Felix Jones & Patrick Crayton. The former two because Marion Barber is relatively tiny, even if productive, and there isn’t a single reason I can think of that he won’t be splitting carries again. It’s worth noting that Jones missed the last ten games of the season in 2008, but look at the numbers he was putting up before his unfortunate knee injury.

If Barber was on your roster last year, you probably remember Choice as the guy who came in and ruined your fantasy season when Jones was sidelined, we’re banking on Jones stay healthy and fill that void, but I think there’s a better chance of it raining one dollar bills than both Barber and Jones staying healthy. Crayton makes this list because he’s the second receiver and the only other adequate option at wide out other than Williams. Congratulations, Patrick.

This team, oddly enough, reminds me of the 2006 Bengals: loads of fantasy options and no real promise for the playoffs. It’s not their fault, really. Well it is partly so because they’re so mis-managed, but the conference and division they reside in is particularly strong. In their own division I like Philly and New York more, but in the conference I don’t think you can discount Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle or San Fransisco. If you include Dallas that’s 75% of the conference that has a realistic shot of making the playoffs. Don’t get mad, Cowboys fans, just blame parity and ignore the fact that it allows you to be competitive in the first place. I know how you excel at ignoring logical overtures like that.

Tomorrow: the Washington Redskins, AKA the NFL’s most expensive courtesan, but she still steals your wallet.

Note: We failed to post on Monday like we promised, seems necessary that we acknowledge as much. Our sister was getting married and we thought we would have time to post this, but as it turns out weddings require a lot of needless legwork so they seem more important than they already are. Anyways, here we are, yet another day behind. Enjoy.

Say what you will about Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid and Joe Banner, no one excels at getting to conference title games quite like they do. Sure, they lose roughly 80% of them and have failed to win a Super Bowl in their tinier with the Eagles, but how many teams can say they’ve made five conference title games in eight years (including four in a row from 2001-04) and the playoffs two additional times? I tell you, the answer is one: the New England Patriots. The main difference being, of course, that the Patriots also have three rings to show for their efforts, something the Eagles fell short of too many times.

Many in Philly like to chalk this up to Reid and McNabb failing to come through in crucial moments, and their has been some failings on the part of both of them. Everyone carries some burden when you lose as many franchise making games as they have, and the coach and quarterback are obviously no exception. But this argument has always struck us as shortsighted, and the front office have left them short-handed, especially at receiver. I know he didn’t play in the playoffs, but its no coincidence that they made the Super Bowl also happened to be the one year they had and were on good terms with Terrell Owens for the majority season.

If nothing else, he helped earn them home field advantage and was their one offensive player that performed as expected in the Super Bowl (thus we thought he had earned the ear of Eagles management for a restructuring of his contract, but he couldn’t have argued his case in a more deplorable, self-obsessed fashion). Once he left the franchise looked like it was on the verge of imploding, as the fallout between Owens and Reid, Owens and the front office, Owens and his offensive coordinator and Owens and McNabb seemed to open up some unsealable wounds. Not to mention that McNabb struggled to stay healthy, and they stayed loyal to him as perennially under-appreciated NFL whipping boy Jeff Garcia was shown the door yet again with another franchise he helped win games for.

But, for every seemingly ill-fated decision, every bizarre on-field instance that works against them, every contract dispute and devastating injury (McNabb, Westbrook is always banged up, Stacy Andrews, Jevon Kearse, etc), the Eagles are still a member of the NFL proletariat. A team that always has to be regarded as a playoff contender so long as McNabb is there, Philly looks as strong as they were at the beginning of the aughts. With the drafting of DeSean Jackson in 2008 and Jeremy Maclin in 2009 to accompany Kevin Curtis and Brian Westbrook (who was more or less a receiver) , they’ve sufficiently addressed what has been their biggest weakness before and after the Terrell Owens season of 2004. Progress!

I don’t want to be too laudatory, this team isn’t without its limitations. Namely the defense and Westbrook’s health/age are both concerns for Eagle nation. But barring injury — which has been the sole reason they’ve had a sub .500 record at any point in the decade (2005 and 2007), they will contend for the Super Bowl in the NFC.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Donovan McNabb, DeSean Jackson. As much as we like this offense going into 2009, we can’t really guarantee a lot of productivity from players like Curtis and Westbrook (we’ll get to that in a moment) or rookies McCoy and Maclin. But McNabb, with about five legitimate receiving targets and Jackson being the number one option (plus return duties), we like both of them to meet and exceed any reasonable expectations one might have for either the veteran QB or te flashy young receiver.

Tread Lightly: Brian Westbrook. Let me explain, I still think he’s going to have a perfectly reasonable fantasy season, but most still have him ranked as a top ten or (in some cases) top five pick. When he plays, he will produce. The Eagles offense is built to accomodate the running back and he’s taken full advantage of it for the past seven seasons; but with a suitable every down back in rookie LeSean McCoy and Westbrook aging faster than Jack, they’re going to be overly-precautious about him playing with injuries of any degree. In short, Westbrook’s time will be cut down (especially later in the season) and even if he’s still capable of producing like he has the past five years, he won’t get the opportunity to do so. The same principal applies to Kevin Curtis, but to a much lesser extent, as he was never the beast that Westbrook was/is.

The defense is also going to take a mild step back. Despite the plethora of key defensive losses over the past couple seasons (most notably Brian Dawkins, but they’re certainly others), the biggest of which doesn’t ever play a down. Jim Johnson, the legendary Eagles defensive coordinator whose had to deal with constant short-changing from the front office and unsuitable backups for pretty much his entire career with Philly has always made the defense credible. With him taking a sabbatical, I’m not sure they can maintain the same level of efficiency without Akeem Jordan, Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong as their starting linebacker corps.

Some of the greatness still resides.

Dark Horses: Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and Cornelius Ingram. In other words, the Eagles first three picks in the 2009 draft. With this and the addition of Jason Peters from Buffalo, I honestly think Philly was the runaway leader in “best draft” speculation. Maclin’s going to become a desperately needed playmaker, much in the same way Jackson was last year, only he’s going to be complimentary to their ace (assuming he eventually signs, that is). McCoy was projected by most as the second or third best back in the draft. They drafted him at great value (53rd overall) and is probably ready to start as an every down back (if last year’s crop of rookies were anything to go by). If he went to a team that didn’t have the best back of the decade, he’d almost certainly be starting by week 10, but the circumstances being what they are, he’s probably going to see about 35% of the carries when Westbrook is playing.

Cornelius Ingram makes this category since he went to Florida and the Eagles let LJ Smith skip town after six seasons of mediocrity. I don’t have high expectations for him, but a starting tight-end whose virtually unknown but posessing talent is always a potentially lethal commodity, especially for a pass-happy team like Philly. It’s also important to note that he might have slipped under the radar with an injury during his 2008 season.

As an admitted fan of the team, it’s somewhat disappointing that they’re still missing the prototypical 6′5, 195LB wide receiver that can bail them out of broken plays and throw desperation passes too. But the offensive line should be ramped up with the resigning of Andrews and the trade for Jason Peters that the pass protection will be among the best in the league, and with one of the speedier receiving units, they should be able to compensate for the lack of size. The real problem is if the offense will be able to compensate for the losses they’ve endured on defense. Right now, we’re of the opinion that they can, but remain skeptical that they will.

Tomorrow we take a look at the regularly disappointing Dallas Cowboys.

I guess it’s appropriate that the Giants are our inaugural NFC team for our 2009 preview before any team finalizes their roster, since they’ve more or less been the face of the conference for the better part of three years, if not longer. Who else would it have been? The Seahawks? Jesus, the NFC is downright pitiable in that case, might as well relinquish the crown and hand it over to the New York team,

Anyways, the Giants have been through its share of ups (what the layman refers to as the “biggest Super Bowl upset of all time”) and downs (Tom Coughlin pissing all of his players off and accidentally running the problem children out of town, Plaxico Burress capping himself in the thigh while wearing sweatpants in a nightclub), but for the past two years they’ve managed to be the NFC’s best team, and there isn’t much reason for that to change, unless you’re an unreasonable cynic.

Fortunately and unfortunately, that’s what I tend to be when it comes to the longevity of success with NFL franchises. Forgive me, but Eli Manning is no Peyton or Tom Brady, and that’s generally what you need to exceed five years of NFL dominance. And even though there are exceptions, I don’t think this Giants team is one of them. For starters, their defense is good, great even; but it can’t hold a candle to the defenses that have gotten by with marginal quarterback play, like the Ravens and Bucs of this decade, the Bears of the 80’s and the Steelers and  of the 90’s.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a durable fantasy option, the sack machine that is their front seven can carry anyone through a season. But is it good enough to make them regular Super Bowl contenders?…I’ll say yes, but I have a hard time believing that the losses of Derrick Ward and Plaxico Burress can be filled by Hakeem Nicks (we loved the pick, but he’s six feet tall and a rookie) and something called Danny Ware.

I think Jacobs is handily a top ten back, and his productivity has been depreciated by the likes of Ward and Bradshaw, now that at least one of them is gone, he should skyrocket in value but he won’t, because he’s injury prone. And Bradshaw is a good backup but also limited if expected to start. You might as well bring Cedric Benson in at that point…if the Bengals didn’t jump on him like he was Barry fucking Sanders. This guy has a criminal record? What are we waiting for?! Go, Go, Go!

The more I ponder the question of the Giants 2009 prospects, the less encouraged I feel. This team was never particularly dominant, relied on Burress far more than they’re ever willing to admit (But they beat the Seahawks without him!) and their front seven can’t average three dozen sacks a game forever. There is obviously still plenty to like about this team, but you’re insane if you think everyone else in their conference isn’t catching up to them.

I know no one wants to believe it, but this is going to be difficult to replace.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Brandon Jacobs. Yes, he’s injury prone, but so is everyone else in the league. In short, if all things are equal and he stays healthy, he could have an LDT circa 2006 season if he gets the carries. Which he will, since Eli doesn’t have a gangly 6′6 receiver to bail him out with jump balls anymore. Kevin Boss is going to be a regular target now, but is now a viable draftee at tight end. I wouldn’t want to put all my eggs in his basket (that’s not an analogy for anything, by the way), but odds are he’s sufficient enough as a starter in a 10+ league.

Tread Lightly: Eli Manning. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see him getting it done in cold weather games frequently enough, and unfortunately he plays in New York. I know he won a Super Bowl and all with them and pulled off a full highlight reel while doing so, but maybe he should have reconisdered the logistics of turning down the Chargers.

Dark Horses: The rest of the fucking roster. There isn’t much bad you can say about guys like Amani Toomer, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mario Manningham, Domenik Hixon or Hakeem Nicks; but there isn’t much good to say about them either. Assuming you don’t pick any of them before the 9th or 10th round of your draft, you’re probably getting good value, but then again the odds of any of these guys sinking like a stone is too high for not reconsidering.

The NFC is remarkably improved heading into 2009. The Saints, Packers and Bears are just three of the teams that will strongly vie for one of those playoff births that they missed last year. I’d imagine the Giants will compete for the divisional title, but if the fall asleep at the wheel and te Cowboys or Eagles manage to steal it from them, I’m not going to be the least bit surprised, and they will be left clinging to the unmerciful force of the NFL Wild Card.

Tomorrow: our Philadelphia Eagles. I use the phrase “our” in the loosest possible sense (both gramatically and emotionally).

For a team regarded as a potential dark horse, they’re really a popular choice to make the playoffs. This tends to happen just about every year, usually with one team from each conference. The difference being –and I think this is a good sign for Chiefs fans– the only people I hear with higher than usual expectations for a team coming off a 2-14 season tend to be people who watch the NFL for a living.

I can definitely see where they’re coming from, but I also think it’s shortsighted. This is a team that traded away what most would consider a top ten defensive player (Jared Allen) which they turned into several draft picks. At the moment, their first overall pick from that draft (Glenn Dorsey), isn’t looking too impressive, as in his first season he looked slow, weak and out of place. Usually trading for picks is commendable and advantageous, you generally want to substitute older talent with younger talent in this league, but there are exceptions and this is almost undoubtedly one of them. Allen was just entering the prime of his career, was a proven commodity and almost definitively has close to a decade left of playing at a pro-bowl level. It’s tough to argue trading him for some unknown draft picks.

Not much else to post for the Chiefs 2008 season.

Still, while the defense has toiled away and is completely ineffectual, they haven’t been terribly impressive on the offensive side, either. With the exception of the home run pick in Dwayne Bowe (you could tell he would be a top ten receiver just from his Hard Knocks footage), they haven’t really drafted any top-tier offensive talent. It seems abundantly clear that replacing Larry Johnson is becoming more and more imperative, whom just two years ago was considered a top three fantasy pick along with Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson (guess what all of them have in common).

They started on their way to doing this, getting Matt Cassel out of New England in what looks like a gift-wrapped package to the Chiefs for their old employee now Chiefs GM, Scott Pioli. Combined with Bowe, young upstart Mark Bradley and newly acquired vet Bobby Engram, we could be looking at a lethal passing game assuming Cassel’s improvement last season wasn’t solely the work of Bill Belichick and the weapons made available to him in New England.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Dwayne Bowe. I really think this guy is well on his way to being a top five receiver, with the addition of a reliable quarterback his productivity is only going to go up. Speaking of which, Cassel really should be a safe bet. I mean, I would feel a little trepidation about relying on him if I were a Chiefs fan, but for fantasy purposes, there should be little to no drop off.

Tread Lightly: Larry Johnson. Lets face it, this guy was washed up in the same season he was considered a top three pick. He’s been living off a season and a half of remarkable play for about five years now, and I think it’s time we all moved on, including the Chiefs.

Dark Horses: Mark Bradley, Bobby Engram, Brad Cottam & Jamaal Charles. The first three because the passing game should be the best this team has to offer, and I don’t know who is going to be prioritized for what. Cottam, by the way, is Tony Gonzalez’s replacement. Gonzo is an extraordinary talent but my guess is the Chiefs offense designed a lot of plays of the tight end, we get to see if that was specific to the player they had at their disposal or if they relished in the deceptiveness of targeting the tight end. Charles is on there solely because of what I just said about Larry Johnson, and someone has to help keep defenses honest.

There’s still the issue of the defense potentially being a disaster, as it was last season (third worst in the league behind the worst I’ve ever seen and the first ever 0-16 team in NFL history). But I think this team is undoubtedly heading in the right direction. If they can get more production out of that newly minted defense they can make a serious push for the playoffs. If not, expect them to finish around 7-9 and second in the division. Progress!

Tomorrow we break into the NFC with the New York Giants.

Well, the good news is they didn’t finish in last place in the division. The bad news is they only had to win 3 games to avoid it and their still without any sort of legitimate offense, an above average defense that has seen its apex and a slew of talented running backs who are rendered mediocre because they have no line and no passing game protecting them. If this all seems familiar it’s because this has been the state of Raider nation since Rich Gannon retired, or whatever it is flash-in-the-pants quarterbacks do when their run of good fortune ends.

To the Raiders credit, they did manage five wins in 2009, two more than the required three to stay out of the AFC West cellar, which is the second most decrepit cellar to be in (congrats, Chiefs!). But even the rival they bested seems to have more hope than the Oakland, and its been roughly five years with the same song and pony show. They seem unwilling to comply with the natural order of things, mainly because of so many regrettable high first round draft picks they have money invested in. Robert Gallery, JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden (so far, but even if he turns into a pro-bowler he’s still unnecessary) and even Michael Huff, who’s turned out to be an effective DB but they took him over Jay Cutler and Mat Leinart (whom we’re still not convinced is a bust).

If you’re keeping count, that’s their last four first overall picks. Even with parity, you can’t rebuild while whiffing that many times on top ten picks that you heavily invest in. Not to mention all the embarrassingly simple logic that motivated all these picks. They knew they were trading Randy Moss the year they had the first overall pick, so why not A) get more for him than a fourth rounder and B) draft Calvin Johnson because you need to replace a receiver and he was the only sure thing in that draft, or C) Even if you are trading Randy Moss and don’t want to simply fill his void, beef up on the offensive line with Joe Thomas.

Might be wise to get him some more carries.

Both Johnson and Thomas were more worthy of a first overall pick than JaMarcus Russell, a guy who made his bones by running up the score on Notre Dame in a bowl game. Mind you, Russell had talent on each end stretching to both sidelines while that Notre Dame defense is probably the worst to ever grace the field of a BCS bowl game. That’s not hyperbole, that’s an honest assessment and an embarrassing one for the Raiders. That said — this is an unpopular sentiment — I actually thought Russell started to demonstrate signs of growth towards the end of 2008, but as improved as his last three weeks were, they’re only so confidence inspiring.

Anyway, things didn’t get much better in 2009 when they decided to take Derrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland over four other fathomable options (Michael Crabtree being the most notable, but also Maclin, Harvin and Nicks), something Bey simply wasn’t. So what can we expect out of Oakland? Amazingly, improvement. But no playoffs. Really, every team with the exception of Denver should improve in 2009.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): None. Absolutely none of their players are surefire fantasy hopefuls. For where Id’ be forced to take them, I’d draft the third receiver on the Cardinals before I draft anyone on the Raiders.

Tread Lightly: Just based on how fantasy football works, JaMarcus Russell isn’t a suitable player to draft when you take into consideration he’s been unproductive so far and they brought in Jeff Garcia’s decomposing body to for clipboard holding duties (which seems to indicate Russell’s team is starting to lose faith in him). If you’re league has 14+ teams in it, you can probably justify him as a backup. Otherwise I think it’s best to look elsewhere despite three games of encouraging play.

Dark Horses: Say what you will about him (like I just did), but Heyward-Bey has the opportunity to be the best receiver on this team in his rookie season. His only real competition for the title is Javon Walker, whose career was sort of ruined by Brett Favre and the Packers (and various bizarre off-the-field…situations. Both of which he was the victim rather than the perpetrator). Also, you’re probably getting great value with any of their running backs. Specifically Darren McFadden, who has pro-bowl potential but has yet to get the carries to prove it. Also: the defense, Zach Miller & Javon Walker.

What you may have noticed about our breakdown is that they’re about twice as many words in the “dark horses” category as the other two combined, and since JaMarcus Russell lies in the “tread lightly” portion of the preview you could preclude that the season is riding on their QB. Like just about every other team in the NFL. Congrats, Oakland Raiders! You’ve made the leap from being woefully inefficient and inept to just slightly below average, like most teams in the league. Welcome to the herd, gentlemen. And to think, you could be a playoff team had you drafted with a little more foresight.

Tomorrow: the flashiest team in the midwest, the Kansas City Chiefs.

If you’re looking for a team to take the biggest nosedive from 2008 to 2009, I’d put my money on the Cutler-less, Shannahan-less Denver Broncos. When the best thing you can say about a team is they have a top ten receiving corps (and even that’s a stretch), you know it could turn into a long season. And really, I don’t think anyone could give you a rationale answer as to why the team is so bad. People can try to rationalize it, but any impartial observer could tell you any sort of logic they might apply to kamikazing a team like this is flawed.

There’s a sentiment floating around amongst NFL fan bases these days that the players basically shouldn’t be given any consideration under any circumstances. “What a bunch of fucking prima-donnas” or “do your fucking job” are popular choices to dismiss any concerns a player/employee might have about his team/employer. If Jay Cutler says he doesn’t like the direction he’s going in, “Fuck you, Jay Cutler, we’re better off with Kyle Orton”. I think most people recognize how shortsighted this is, but most people aren’t your average NFL die-hards.

In short, there was no reason to fire Shannahan as head coach unless he demanded to stay on as GM, in which case you carefully deliberate the situation. But if he was that tightly related to the state of Cutler’s apparently fragile mindset, I think you just keep him in house. Even if there is absolutely no excuse for their defense to be as bad as it was, which was almost handily the worst NFL defense I’ve seen in my life (any time a team goes 0-16 there are least has to be a debate about it).

So what are they working with? A running back they drafted in the first round. They needed a running back, but not that early. They would have been better off drafting a linebacker or offensive lineman (preferably the former) and taking a back in the second, third or fourth. Just because Shannahan left doesn’t mean you have to do the antithesis to everything he stood for, especially since they were generally successful with his brand of implementation.

That isn’t to say Moreno is ill-suited at the moment. With that receiving corps. and the momentary flashes of competence that Orton demonstrated last season, Moreno’s first season in the NFL might not be chum in a shark tank, but I’m betting it is. And even if the offense can stay on course, you still have the issue of this flaccid, inept and torturous for the fans to watch defense. You could watch the Washington Nationals and see less futility. At best I think you’re looking at a 5 win season, at worst it wouldn’t surprise me to see a repeat of the 2008 Lions (they open the season Bengals, Browns, Raiders, so it’s unlikely).

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royale are by and large both appropriately ranked, I don’t expect either to have the same season they had last year (particularly Marshall), but the drop off should be minimal. Guys like these always tend to get their numbers even if they are in vein.

Tread Lightly: Do not draft this defense. For one, the offense isn’t going to be as productive, requiring the defense to be on the field longer, the longer the defense is on the field the more points they give up. Secondly, who is their anchor? Champ Bailey? He’s as talented as they come but he’s also 31. At least they picked up Brian Dawkins and used picks 2-4 on defense, but the former is 35 and the latter is unpredictable. You might as well draft the Bengals defense if you’re looking for a long, long shot. I can’t recommend any running backs since they have four who’ve seen ample playing time on other rosters plus Moreno. Honest to god, why did they draft him?

Dark Horses: Kyle Orton. I always felt like he got a bad rap in Chicago, but a bad rap in the sense he could be a Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson type, not that he’s rivaling a potential hall-of-famer in talent and capability. But with this receiving corps compared to what he had to work with in Chicago, Orton could definitely materialize into a serviceable backup on your fantasy roster.

If I end up being right about this team, there was absolutely no reason for putting themselves in this position. Maybe Cutler was a petulant little child when Shannahan left and maybe you did have a dissapointing second half in 2008, why make your team worse for an unnecessary rebuilding process? For what? Spite? When your young quarterback has a breakthrough season it’s best to ride that gravy train until it stops. For better or worse every other franchise in the NFL does exactly this when in the same position because quarterbacks with that much potential are something of a rarity, and pandering to them is occasionally a necessary evil. Sorry, Broncos fans. I’m afraid you’re going to have to find this out the hard way.

But hey, Jay Cutler is no longer a Bronco, he just has to play in the best city in the country. Showed him.

Back tomorrow with an Oakland Raiders preview. The hits just keep on coming out of this division.

For the past two years at the draft now, I’ve heard that the Chargers do not need their picks, that they’re just over-loading a loaded roster. That’s two years, and the people covering the draft are so dead-fucking-serious about it you think their capable of murder should someone disagree with them at that very moment. Well, I guess I’m just not seeing this innate superiority.

That isn’t to say I don’t think they’ll win this division, because they most certainly are. But it has more to do with the inferiority in their conference than their incomparable harem of talent. It’s easy flaunt your prowess when the Raiders are in your division and your stiffest competition is the Kansas City Chiefs (who we like as a dark horse. But they’re just that: a dark horse, very few are expecting anything from them).

With that said, I really don’t want to under-sell this team because I think they actually make the leap this season. They’re returning everyone, their schedule is pretty light relative to other teams who made the divisional playoffs (because of a disappointing 8-8 season) and Shawne Merriman is coming back. In today’s league that buys you a playoff spot and probably a bye (though that’s obviously debatable). Their weaknesses are easily masked and compensated for in other facets of the team. Expect them to be exceedingly annoying and successful just like they were last year, except to a greater degree.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Vincent Jackson,

Sorry Phil, this picture never gets old.

Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates. I’m tempted to put more because I feel like this entire passing game could be on a roster in the right league. I’m pretty sure they’ll have offensive lineman with more illegal receptions than the Oakland Raiders receiving corps. by year’s end. But these are the three that will undoubtedly perform for you and perform well. Rivers will probably lead the league in insufferable post-game interviews as well, make sure your league scores for those. He’s basically Ryan Leaf with NFL-made talent.

Tread Lightly: Chris Chambers and LaDainian Tomlinson. These two essentially have one thing in common: they’re both old. Old as the day is long. This is all relative, of course. They’re both 31 and 30, respectively; but this is increasingly a young man’s league. With virtually no margin for error, which means those in their 30’s are a dying breed. Their like the toucan at this point. Not to mention that these two tend to have more miles on them than most of their contemporaries. I’d be very wary of each. Especially Tomlinson, who I’ve seen as high as a second round pick on a draft ranking.

Dark Horses: A slew of Chargers backups are earning this title. Malcolm Floyd, Darren Sproles, Jacob Hester and the defense are leading this helm, though. All three of them earn the rank as “dark horse” since the people they’re playing behind are like Tom ‘n Jerry old. Floyd is a talented wide out just waiting for his contract to end/Chambers to leave, Hester is durable fullback with as much heart as anyone in the league, and we all saw what Sproles was capable of last season. You can probably hold off on drafting Floyd and Hester, but Sproles is an absolute must if the remaining options aren’t guaranteeing anything, we’ve been labeling him a dark horse for close to a year now.

This season is going to be a litmus test for this core group of players, but especially for Norv Turner, whose hiring (and replacement of Schottenheimer) people still question to this day. If he can take them to a 12-4 division title and make the conference championship game, the front office (more specifically, AJ Smith) will be validated. If they can’t, we might see an unnecessary rebuilding akin to what we’re watching in Denver right now.

Speaking of which, we’ll offer a full helping of Denver Broncos dismemberment on Monday. Have a good weekend.

Maurice Jones-Drew. That’s all I have to say. Maurice Jones-Drew. If you’re looking at any other bright spot on this roster, please let me know if you find anything. Right now we see a team with a young but renovated and talented offensive line, a quarterback they were to quick to extend a contract with, a defense that was a shell of its former self last season and a receiving corps made up of has-beens and busts.

That isn’t to say the team is completely hopeless. After all, they did goo 11-5 last season, Gerrard had as efficient of a season as a quarterback could realistically have (though a few more passing TD’s would have been nice) and the defense was dominant. I guess there isn’t any reason to assume they couldn’t return to form, but I don’t. Outside of losing a few key defensive players between 2007 and 2008 seasons (which they still haven’t replaced) and adding a couple inconsequential receivers (Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter), essentially nothing changed.

Yet amazingly, there are high expectations for this team, and it’s a bi-product of a parity-ridden NFL. What on God’s green earth would lead you to believe that a team coming off a 5-11 season that made no significant changes and plays in the same division as the team with the best record in the NFL (Titans), a 12-4 wild card (Colts) and a popular dark horse (Texans), would anyone expect this team to be in the playoffs? Let’s rundown the roster and see if I’m the crazy one.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Maurice Jones-Drew, that’s all I have for you. And even he’s prone to injury. If you want a running back with weapons around him to draft for fantasy, then I have two other teams in this division I’d like to introduce you too. Actually, we should probably throw the defense in here. If anything they’re going to over-perform for where they tend to be ranked, so you can usually get decent value out of them,

Tread Lightly: None of their prospects are rated too highly, but I’d be skeptical of all of them. Why would Dennis Northcutt, Gerrard, Troy Williamson or Mercedes Lewis have a good season? Give me one good reason and I’ll reconsider.

Dark Horses: Torry Holt. We’re going to see just how irredeemable this passing game is with Holt, who still has plenty left in the tank but St. Louis is trying to move on, so he signs with this hodge-podge franchise. I suspect it will be a pretty lackluster year for the Super Bowl champion, but he’ll only be partly responsible for it. Chauncey Washington is another potential dark horse as Jones-Drew is prone to injury and Washington is their backup. Plus he went to USC, so we know he’s willing to perform for the right price.

So there it is, your 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars who are amazingly still in Jacksonville. I don’t really get the lack of support for this team. Jacksonville’s nice every time I go there, but I’m always there for the cocktail party so it doesn’t really count. If you take away the beach and The Lighttower restaurant I don’t think there’s much else to do in that city. They love college football, why the aversion to the pro game? I prefer college football myself, but certainly wouldn’t object or silently protest an NFL team in Columbus. Then again, there isn’t enough money in the world or a crime heinous enough to threaten me with that would convince me to watch NASCAR.

Tomorrow: Our lampooning of the AFC West kicks off. And man, what a lampooning it’s going to be.

When you take into consideration that this team is generally dismissed as a bottom-feeder, they’ve actually posted some pretty impressive records as of late. All you have to do is lower your expectations beyond any reasonable measure, and voila! They’re overachieving.

I kid the Texans, but only because I have high expectations for them. In theory, with the way they’ve drafted lately they should be a playoff contender. In reality, their division has been too competitive for them to overcome. If they played in the AFC or NFC west, they probably would have made the playoffs a couple times in the past five years. But alas, they’re forced to compete for the playoffs against the second best team this decade along with the Jags and Titans, both of whom who’ve made the playoffs a combined six times in the past seven years (that’s a lot of wild card births).

So what’s the outlook in Houston heading into 2009? As per usual, it is hopeful. The Texans have a young, promising defense spearheaded by 2006 first round draft picks Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and 2007 first round pick Amobi Okoye. Never the less, it has been a continual issue for them, as they seem to improve every year can never perform on a consistent basis. Some of that has to do with coaching changes, some with inexperience and a lot to do with glaring weakness on the defensive side.

But really, since the Texans inception in 2002, their biggest issue has been the quarterback position. In 2003 they thought they’d have a franchise player in David Carr. If you’re under the age of fifteen you probably don’t know who that is, so needless to say it didn’t pan out (not that it mattered, the other option was Joey Harrington and he never came to form either). When they finally realized they had to move on in between 2006 and 2007 seasons, they executed a mini-blockbuster trade for at the time Mike Vick’s backup and assumed valued asset, Matt Schaub.

Again, it seemed like the right move at the time (they gave up two second rounders and traded first round picks with the Falcons) because they needed a quarterback and outside of the offensive line, seemed serviceable everywhere else on the field. Not to mention he beat out fellow ACC alum and fourth overall pick Phillip Rivers twice for QB of the year in college. But two seasons later and Houston has been indecisive and impatient with Schaub, as he and Rosenfels have almost split the past 32 games evenly (18-14 in favor of Schaub) to a 16-16 record (8-8 both seasons).

Though they are two games over .500 with Schaub and two under with Rosenfels is besides the point. This team’s primary issue has been resolving their ongoing quarterback issue. With Rosenfels off for purpler arena pastures in Minneapolis, hopefully Schaub can turn into the player everyone once thought he’d be coming out of Atlanta.

Or perhaps everyone read too much into a few impressive pre-season games.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton. Their passing game might struggle but between Rosenfels and Schaub, the Texans completed 367 passes in 2008. 245 of them (about 67%) went to Daniels, Walter and Johnson. Now, Johnson should be a late first, early second round pick, the other two you can probably get at value. Owen Daniels is the justification why everyone holds out on drafting a tight end.

One thing I will never understand is how devalued a running back’s performance in college will be in regards to his pro prospects. I know they’re interchangeable, but why anyone would think Slaton wouldn’t be worthy of such a later pick than Jonathan Stewart, Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice would all warrant higher picks is beyond me. I mean, does anyone in the NFL watch college football? Not that any of the aforementioned names are bad picks per say, in fact the 2008 rookie class of running backs kind of ushered in the notion of the running back position being an affordable one, but Slaton had a better college career than all of these guys and was drafted after all of them.

Tread Lightly: Matt Schaub. A great season for a quarterback requires a lot more consistency and poise than it does for a running back or receiver, and I’m just not sure Schaub has it in him at this point. For instance, while those three receiving targets combined for 245 receptions only 18 of them were for touchdowns (3/2 was his 2008 ratio), and not all of them were from Schaub. Barring injury, he shouldn’t have to worry about splitting starts with Dan “safety hazard” Orlovsky, but I wouldn’t over-value anything Matt Schaub has to offer, regardless of his teammates numbers.

Dark Horses: If, however, Schaub does get his shit together, you might want to look out for Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis to have serviceable seasons, maybe use one of them on a bye week here and there. Also, Chris Brown might spell Steve Slaton here and there, and is basically their sole option at running back should Slaton sustain some sort of injury. If the last two seasons have taught me anything, you can always count on injuries to running backs.

I’m just going to admit I have no idea where to put the defense. They have potential, but they have for the past two seasons. They’re not really a dark horse in that I can’t envision them being any better than those ranked in front of them. And I can’t advise against picking them where they’re ranked since everyone has them under-valued (but not considerably). We’ll just say that they’ll be a suitable backup for your bye week or a starter against an inferior offense.

Anyhow, we like the Texans from a fantasy perspective and think they can make a playoff push this year. But most of their prospects are out of their hands since their ceiling is only so high. Basically, they need some teams to fail to meet expectations (Ravens, Titans, Dolphins, Bills) and for no one else to exceed theirs. I have a feeling 9-7 can get you a wild card, that is well within Houston’s reach.

Tomorrow: the woefully disappointing and misplaced Jacksonville Jaguars.

UPDATE: This is why I was hesitant to start doing this so early in the summer, but as you’ve probably heard by now, Derrick Mason has announced he’s retiring. This was unexpected. Even though he’s been in the league for 12 years, he’s coming off a 1,000 receiving yard season on a shit offense. It’s not going to surprise me if he pulls a Favre (though obviously it would be less dramatic), but for the time being he is gone and isn’t likely to be back with the Ravens. In other words, as disparaging as this post was about their fantasy prospects, multiply everything by about three. The running backs might actually increase in value, though; since their best receiver is now their tight end.

If there was ever a team whose fantasy output was in direct contrast to their winning percentage, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. Maybe I’m simply bitter, because in my first year playing fantasy football I drafted Jamal Lewis third or fourth overall, and, well, you can probably tell which year I’m referring too.

But there is no denying the lack of offensive firepower on this team. Never have I seen an organization rely so heavily on tipped passes on offense and defense swaying games in their favor, most notably in the late, great, Steve McNair’s last season (he was integral but his fast ball had disappeared and he was well past his prime). Outside of that, since winning the Super Bowl they’ve relied on Jeff Blake (also well passed his prime when he carried Cincy to 8-8 for, like, an entire decade) and Anthony Wright, but mostly in spite of being a regular disappointment, Kyle Boller has been their starting quarterback. Not once did he break the top 28 QB’s in the league.

But now they have Joe Flacco out of the university of Delaware. Never mind that Flacco couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko at Pitt (who? Exactly) thus forcing his transfer to the I-AA school and that nothing was asked of him last year besides “don’t turn the ball over regularly, especially not in crucial situations”, the entire world has convinced itself that Joe Flacco is going to be a star. I imagine him to be a star in the same way I expected Weebay to give up Namond to Colvin. (my apologies, I had to force in one Wire reference and link in this post).

It would make sense for this to be a Wolverines jersey, but its not Balmer fans.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m a tad more skeptical. It could be because I hate the Ravens and their very existence with every fiber of my being, or because I didn’t think much of Flacco when he was coming out of college. But if you look at his numbers and his QB ranking from last season, I feel like there’s validity to my concerns. To be quite honest, I’m not sure that from a fantasy perspective, Joe Flacco is any better or worse than Chad Pennington. I’m not sure which player that’s supposed to be an insult towards, but I do know that I want as few fantasy players on my roster that are teammates of either guy as possible.

Anyway, he’s only one player out of a plethora of guys you don’t want on your team. Shall we commence? We shall…

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Well, if you insist on drafting a Baltimore Raven for a fantasy league with less than twenty teams in it, and that Raven isn’t the defensive unit, we can’t emphasize enough that that person absolutely has to be Derrick Mason. He sort of had a breakthrough last year — his first real productive season since leaving the Titans for Charm City– playing with a quarterback that has a mildly accurate deep ball (we’ll give Flacco that much). He caught 80 passes for over 1,000 yards receiving and 5 TD’s. Not exactly pro bowl numbers but it’s the best and most reliable you’re going to find amongst this sad bunch.

Tread Lightly: Can I just put “the whole roster except for the defense” and be done with it? No? Well let me give you the reasons: all the running backs have talent but there are simply too many of them (McGahee, Rice and McClain) and they’re all too comparable in talent to expect any of them to stand out, we’ve already explained in great length why you don’t want Flacco on your roster, and while Mark Clayton sounds effective in principal, in practice he’s a nightmare; he’s stats have gone down every years since 2006.

Dark Horses: All you’re going to get from me is one of their running backs is valuable should at least one other be incapacitated. McGahee, McClain and Rice are all perfectly capable, and could all be 2nd round picks on the right team. But since they all have to share carries, you’re looking at best cast scenario being (this is just off the top of my head)…maybe seventh or eighth round? That would probably be McGahee, and even then you’re getting better value taking McClain or Rice later, because it stands to reason they’re going to receive comparable PT to the expected starter.

I’m not sure what to make of Todd Heap or if he’s even on the team anymore, so we’re ignoring him. I do know that LJ Smith is on the roster, and while he was a cross to bear in Philadelphia, Baltimore thought enough of his skill set to sign him and should be taking plays/looks away from Heap. But yes, this is Baltimore’s fantasy makeup for the 2009 season. I could be unbelievably and embarrassingly wrong, but if you’re looking for a total skeptics point of view as it pertains to the Ravens, you’ve come to the right place my friend.

Tomorrow: Hard Knocks‘ very own Cincinnati Bengals.

As mentioned yesterday, this team has had a stranglehold on one of the more competitive divisions over the past decade, and just when it looked like the bottom was about to collapse beneath them, Peyton Manning willed this team to a 12-4 record and a wild card spot in the playoffs (where they were immediately upset by an 8-8 Chargers team, as per usual except for one season).

In a season with no real standout performances, it turned out to be an MVP season for the future hall-of-fame inductee, despite it not being his best by a long shot. Some expect this team to rebound — as absurd as it is to be expected to rebound from 12-4 — and return to their usual dominant style. I, for one, expect the exact opposite: for them to continue sliding into the abyss.

Not that their going .500 or anywhere near it. I could see a scenario where they’re 10-6 or 11-5. Though I never thought much of Tony Dungy as a coach, I think the new regime might even be an improvement, so that might stop the hemoraging that’s bound to start as Manning gets older, but you can already see it starting. For starters, no more Marvin Harrison, who was getting long in the tooth himself. What’s even more befuddling is they didn’t bother to seek out a replacement in free agency or the draft. I suppose they thought since they got by without him last year than can do the same this year.

He's not taking this lightly.

So Gonzalez will take his place and Wayne becomes the go-to-guy. That’s more than serviceable. I mean, it’s probably still a top 15 receiving corps in the league (definitely behind the Patriots, Cardinals, Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Bills, Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, Saints, Texans); but that’s a stark contrast to their usual top five status from the past seven years or so. It’s going to be detrimental to the team, and more specifically the offense, as a whole.

Can’t Miss (for what one can reasonably expect): While I think they’re going to slide a bit more this season, you’re still not going wrong with Manning or Wayne. Both are aging but not old and both have been too dominant for too long to anticipate a significant drop off in a season’s time.

Tread Lightly: I say this only because of their first round draft pick, but I wouldn’t be too anxious to draft Joseph Addai. For that matter, I wouldn’t be over-reaching for Mike Hart or Donald Brown either. It’s too unpredictable. Why would they draft a running back and not a receiver in the first round. Or better yet, why not draft a much needed defensive player? This team’s success has hinged on Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney for the past five years, I think it’s time to diversify on that side of the ball. Speaking of which, don’t draft the Colts defense either.

Dark Horses: I’ve done a terrible job of defining these three categories, so I’ll try to do it to suit this pick: it’s all relative to where the player is expected to be drafted. So if a player is a projected 8th round pick and I think he warrants fourth round attention, I put him in the “dark horses” category. If he’s a second round projection and I don’t like him before the fifth, I put him in the “tread lightly” section. If he’s appropriately ranked by your average fantasy rankings, he gets a “can’t miss” placement.

That said, I really like Dallas Clark in 2009. Sure, he’s considered a top…6 tight end (Winslow, Gates, Gonzalez, Cooley and Witten are all considered better options), but most wouldn’t think of drafting him until the eighth or ninth round, so you can still get him in the sixth or seventh and get better, if not superior production compared to the other options at those spots. Just look at his totals from last season in 15 games: 77 receptions for 848 yards and six touchdowns. Not to mention Marvin Harrison played in some of those games. If you facotr in his absence combined with Clark getting that 16th game in, I think you’re looking at close to 1,000 yards receiving, roughly 10 TD’s and close to 100 receptions.

Other than Clark the only guy who might exceed his perceived value here is Gonzalez, but I’m so worried about his height and above-average but not lightning quick speed being too much adversity. So I wouldn’t be putting him too far ahead of where everyone else has him.

That’s the Colts in a nutshell. Still a lot of fantasy value, not much defense and potentially the beginning of the end of an era (if that didn’t already happen last season). I’ve never been a Colts fan so I welcome the potential failure, this seems to be an unpopular opinion, but whether it is or isn’t; try not to let it effect your fantasy season. I might be overcompensating but there is legitimate reason to expect a break from the norm.

Tomorrow: the perennially 8-8 Houston Texans.

My apologies for bringing this to you about six hours later than we had hoped for, but you skip town for a few days and all hell breaks loose. Anyways, it shouldn’t be a problem, just read it tomorrow morning if you’re busy now. Christ, what do you people want from me?

I can’t recall the last time that the champion of the AFC South wasn’t the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m willing to guess that it was probably when Tennessee made the Super Bowl and came up one infamous yard short of putting it into overtime against a heavily favored St. Louis Rams team. This probably says more about the other two teams in the division than it does about Indianapolis or Tennessee (even though Jacksonville is regularly in the playoffs), especially the team at large here.

The Titans are meticulously coached and for being such a small market, they’re regularly competitive, but they tend to have a longer curve than most. Look at their regular season win totals dating back to 2002: 11, 12, 5, 4, 8, 10, 13. That’s 63 total wins in seven seasons, which comes out to exactly nine wins a season. Just above the cusp of .500.

But obviously there were some growing pains from the end of the McNair heyday to however you would identify the team now. This is to be expected with any NFL franchise when their quarterback starts to decline. You think the Colts and Patriots aren’t going to fall out of contention when Manning and Brady’s stars start to fade? Please.

Looks like I'll have to go elsewhere for my fat jokes.

I guess that’s my issue with the Titans and why I’m skeptical of their prospects this season: they have no identity. Sure, we know them as a tough-minded, hard-hitting defensive team, but where’s their offense coming from? No receivers (I wouldn’t have terribly high expectations for a rookie out of Rutgers, but thar’s just me), presumably dismal options at quarterback (though we’re not completely sold that Vince Young is hopeless), a great running back in Chris Johnson and a sufficient one in LenDale White (who’s supposedly shedding weight). At a certain point you’re going to find the defense a more reliable scoring option than the offense.

But how long can they rely solely on the running game while also having the worst passing game in the conference? My guess is the clock is ticking and they’re much closer to a 4-12 season than they are a 13-3. This does not bode well for fantasy. The NFL is a “rains it pours” league. Things seldom happen gradually, like they do in baseball or basketball, it’s a house of cards. And for a team like Tennessee, when it crumbles, it takes awhile to rebuild. My guess is they start working Young into the offense this season, because for not only this season but in the immediate future, they don’t really have any other current options.

Can’t Miss (for what one can reasonably expect): Chris Johnson, LenDale White, defense. It is worth taking under advisement that both Johnson and White over-extended themselves last season, and that the front offices lack of motivation to find any additional pieces is quite likely going to end up hurting both of them. But you know that Johnson is still going to be the team’s primary weapon and that White is going to reap the benefits of Johnson’s grunt work in between the tens.

Tread Lightly: I think it goes without saying that Justin Gage, Kerry Collins and Alge Crumpler are not exactly considered ideal fantasy prospects. If you’re league is so deep that these people have to be drafted, then all I can say is I hope you stay healthy.

Dark Horses: None. Well, they’re real long shots in Vince Young and Chris Henry, but I’m pretty sure you don’t have to draft either of them, just keep your head on a swivel on Sunday afternoons for when Collins, White or Johnson go down in a heap of mush and broken bones, because it’s almost certain to happen. That backfield was way too healthy all last season.

Tennessee is still a loaded roster that poses an amiable threat to any opponent. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a team won a Super Bowl based solely on a great all-time defense and an above average running game (2000 Ravens, 2003 Buccaneers most recently). But that passing game is going to inadvertently hurting both of those units. I know they were sufficient last season and you might be thinking “why couldn’t they just replicate what they did in 2008?” The phrase borrowed time comes to mind, hopefully it won’t end up getting the better of them.