Fantasy Football

This division probably had the most story-laden season in 2008, and the Jets are no exception. After a strong 8-3 start, they collapsed much in the same fashion that the Dolphins regathered, losing four of the next five and completely missing the playoffs by a mile (with today’s NFL standards). Somehow the Jets managed to pin this all on Eric Mangini, who seems to have an unusual coaching style, but knows how to coach a winning franchise.

Nothing like being the beneficiary of circumstance. This guy's like Tommy Carcetti. Google it.

This, of course, was the fault of Brett Favre, whose managed to turn into the Steve Francis of the NFL. For the uninitiated, that means he’s a coach killer. So Mangini gets fired, Favre retires to make a spectacle out of trying to garner the interest of the Vikings and the team trades up to draft a top five QB and we get someone named Rex Ryan as a head coach. In short, it’s a total fucking mystery what their offense is going to look like. I would suggest you look at their offensive productivity for 2007, the year before they had Favre, give the offensive line two more years of improvement, take away Laverneus Coles and replace Kellen Clemens with Marc Sanchez, a rookie quarterback out of USC who couldn’t beat out John David Booty for the starting position, and he’s a third string backup for the worst QB team in the league.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Well, there aren’t many of these that the Jets roster is sporting. It’s going to revolve around a unqualified or rookie quarterback, a pedestrian receiving corps, a serviceable running game and a loaded offensive line. Thomas Jones is probably the closest you’re going to get to a sure thing on this team, and even he is going to share a number of carries with Leon Washington and rookie third round draft pick Shonn Greene, who we’ve praised before and we feel is likely to get at least a small share of carries throughout the season.

Tread Lightly: Every receiver that plays a down for this team. You can probably get Jerricho Cotchery at good value, but with the options he has throwing to him, do you really want to take that chance before the season starts? Same goes for Chansi Stuckey, who was hot and cold for every single game last season, and more often than not he reflected the latter.

Dark Horses: Dustin Keller is probably the most popular fit for this category, but I like Shonn Grenne, as I have my doubts about Jones’ body holding up for two full straight seasons and Leon Washington’s capacity as an every down back. Keller is certainly a definitive prospect, but I’d make sure I draft another tight end before I put too much stock into him coming off a season wherein he was playing with a Favre, a quarterback known for his penchant for throwing to tight ends (Mark Chumura, Bubba Franks, Donald Lee, etc.).

Even this defense, which is pretty star-studded can’t be relied on. How many turnovers are they going to have to suffer from the offense? What style of offense can we expect Ryan to run? I’m sure it will emphasize moving the ball on the ground, but will the passing game be sufficient enough to keep opposing defenses honest?

In short, there are just too many question marks on this team that all stem from their quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez might be the next John Elway, but I imagine even the most optimistic and loyal Trojan and Jets fans have their reservations. My advice — for this entire roster, really –
is to under-shoot everyone by about two rounds, and if any of them are still available try to get them at value. But if they’re taken earlier than they should be, just regard it as a more valuable asset staying on the board for one more pick.

The New England Patriots are unique in that no matter how many years they go without winning a Super Bowl, they’re always the favorite going into the season. And deservedly so. The best player (Brady) combined with the best coach (Belichick, despite what South Park may see) and the best front office (assuming Pioli wasn’t responsible for everything), tends to make a successful franchise, and with the exception of the San Antonio Spurs, no one has been more successful the past decade than the Pats in all of professional sports (spare me, Red Wings fans).

With this caliber of succcess tends to come a plethora of fantasy options, even though their offense hasn’t been all that blistering in their three Super Bowls, but that all changed with the acquisition of Randy Moss, who attracts a double team on every play and still produces as much as any receiver in the league. People have been expressing their doubts about the Patriots in 2009, given the age and recent injury issues they’ve endured, but should they remain healthy, there’s no reason they won’t produce just like they did in 2007.

Any excuse I can find.

Can’t Miss (for what one would reasonably expect): Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker. All three of these guys, in no particular order, are almost invaluable. You could draft all three of them and be competitive. Brady should get his touchdowns with two pro-bowl receivers and both receivers are still the primary targets for the best quarterback in the league. We have no idea what the recovery process will be like for Brady, but it seems more likely that there isn’t one than if he never comes back to full-form. Obviously this entire operation hinges on his well-being, if he isn’t in good health than everyone else is rendered mediocre. But we’re confident the wheels aren’t coming loose just yet.

Tread Lightly: Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor. The first is injury prone, the second is aging and the third is over the hill. If Maroney stays healthy then he should prove to be a valuable prospect, and Faulk has some absolutely monster games in his absence last season, but we get the impression that carries are going to be pretty evenly spread, and none of them are going to be consistent fantasy performers. It would seem that the Patriots have taken to the Shannahan mode of running back play, and that’s not good for any of us. I’d also be weary of Joey Galloway, who’s going to be in the Dante Stallworth 2007 role, and while it looks and sounds promising, it’s good for one breakout play every three games.

Dark Horses: Benjamin Watson. If they’re as pass happy as they were two years ago, then Watson is always a viable option. If not, then he turns into another utility player, and they have at least four or five of those at skill positions.

All told, the real breakout performer for fantasy football from this team might be the defense. If they’re able to stifle opposing offenses like they were during the Super Bowl years, Belichick may not feel compelled to force the issue on offense, which means a lot of running out the clock and a lot of sitting with a comfortable but not record-breaking lead. You know they still want redemption for the 2008 Super Bowl against the Giants, that is the optimum goal here. And whenever a team this talented is going to be this hungry, I like them as a mainstay fantasy destination in my draft.

For tomorrow: The New York Jets

Instead of doing this randomly, we decided to list these according to the final standings in our local newspaper. The AFC East is at the top, and Miami squeaked out the division with a Big East like schedule, so we’re starting with the overly celebrated Dolphins, who now call Land Shark Lager stadium home.

For those who seek an alternative to Corona.

The 2008 Dolphins, as you are probably well aware if you’re reading this site, are responsible for the biggest single season turn around in NFL history, going from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and AFC divisional champs in 2008. Say what you will about their schedule (like I just did) or their luck (Brady going out in week 1, the Jets unforeseen collapse), a ten game turnaround in a sixteen game season is remarkable. The problem is, however, that they did this without any central focus on the offensive end. With the exception of Ronnie Brown, every player was interchangeable from a statistical output.

Whether it was Greg Camarillo or Ted Ginn or Ricky Williams or anyone else, the Dolphins opted for schematics in lieu of star power (a common and intelligent trend right now in the NFL). The bad news is their fantasy options are limited, even Ronnie Brown went for a biscuit over 900 and ten touchdowns, far from a top twenty pick. The good news is they provide a lot of options for a ten person league in bye-weeks. If you can manage it, drafting all your players with differing off-weeks from the Dolphins (or at least enough so that Miami’s players can spell you) and pick up a couple of these henchmen they’ve accumulated, it’s as good as you can plan on doing.

Can’t Miss (for what one can realistically expect): Ronnie Brown. Injuries have taken him out of his prime earlier than he should have been, but between Ricky Williams and the wildcat formation, Brown has as much mid-round potential as anyone, and the likelihood he is re-injured is slim. I also like Ted Ginn, though I’d recommend taking him after you’ve already filled all your starter spots. Unless Pennington gets a Popeye arm when he eats spinach, it’s still not strong enough to keep up with Ginn. Also, the defense. Bill Parcells will always assemble a competent defense, and their projected status of 12-15 overall in the league is more than appropriate.

Tread Lightly: Like we said, expectations are fairly low for pretty much everyone on this team. But I’d recommend staying away from Pennington, Williams & Bess. Pennington, for all his second in MVP voting hype, is really nothing more than a backup QB on a fantasy team, and even then you can find better. Williams, sorry to say, is something of a has been, and his productivity is only going to fall from last year to 2009. He’ll have a couple good games that might entice you to acquire him off free agency should he be available, but don’t rush him into a starter spot, if Brown is healthy he’s bound to disappoint. If you actually know who Davone Bess is and want to know why you shouldn’t draft him, let me know and I’ll offer an explanation.

Dark Horses: Anthony Fasano and Greg Camarillo. Fasano is a perfectly suitable tight end and could have a surprising, Owen Daniels-like season if he can garner some attention from the powers that be. Camarillo was showing flashes of brilliance last night until he went out for the season in week twelve and missed five games. In 10.5 games he had 55 catches and two touchdowns, almost tailor-made for backup status.

That pretty much covers everyone except for the rookies, and the best you’re getting from this draft class is Patrick Turner, a wide receiver out of USC who I would guess won’t be any better than Camarillo or Ginn, and probably on par with Bess if he gets the playing time. The highest you can take Brown is probably the fourth round, anything after that is fine. Everyone else on this team, because the construct of the team, has warning flags pouring out of their ass.

Tomorrow: the New England Patriots

Alright, this is getting incredibly tedious looking for headlines to offer big picture perspectives on here. So I think starting tomorrow we’re going to start breaking down every team from a fantasy perspective: who to draft where, who to avoid when, dark horses and busts, the whole nine. We’re going to try and write this from the perspective of the coach, and what strategies give the team the best chance of winning, because that’s going to dictate who accumulates the most statistical productivity. It seems like someone could actually benefit from such work, as opposed to me just looking for filler so this site doesn’t go on indefinite hiatus.

But anyhow, there are a couple news items that kinda sorta warrant mentioning, but I wouldn’t get too excited. This isn’t a fantasy football equivalent of Michael Jackson dying, it’s more like the lead singer of Good Charlotte springing his pinkie finger. Ugh, I’ve already spent too much time talking about this.

It’s a couple days old now, but Joe Jurevicius is suing the Cleveland Browns for the unsanitary conditions in their locker room that led to his and others staph infections (most notably Kellen Winslow). This really does raise some eyebrows, and the sanitation in the Browns locker room is a great metaphor for the general disarray of the franchise. But damn, Joe, it isn’t like this team doesn’t already have enough problems without you slapping them in the face with (at least on the surface of it) perfectly legitimate lawsuits.

Unlike The Browns, Joe Banner knows how to run a professional sports franchise.

Anyhow, if you’re looking for a fantasy angle from this story, how’s this: don’t draft any Cleveland Browns. Or if you have too, limit yourself to drafting them about three rounds later than the median of all the fantasy rankings you happen to read. There is always going to be someone more reliable at that point in the draft than who Cleveland has to offer.

LeSean McCoy and the Philadelphia Eagles have reached an agreement, which is good news for Philly fans who’ve needed a respectable backup running back ever since Deuce fucking Staley left town. With him safely in the number two slot, I’d be cautious about Brian Westbrook, who’s perennially listed on the probable/questionable board and can be seen limping during warm-ups on a weekly basis. With someone like McCoy to pick up the slack, they’re going to be a lot more conservative with Westbrook and a lot more liberal with McCoy.

That’s not to say Westbrook is in Cleveland Browns territory, not by a mile. But if all things are equal between him and, say, Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch, I might opt for the alternatives. His fantasy reign has been tremendous, but I think this is when the Eagles start their transition, you might want to do the same.

My apologies for taking the day off yesterday, but we have a viable excuse that we can actually prove, we were writing a running diary for last night’s NBA draft. Go here if this is something that might interest you or if you were planning on seeking revenge for our failing to post something disappointingly dry and poorly written. If the latter is the case, I wouldn’t be too surprised by any day off from now until August.

In case you haven’t noticed, golf and the NBA are dominating sports headlines right now (especially the NBA), and any news coming out of the NFL is fairly superfluous as it pertains to fantasy football. There is good news, however, that we found out Hard Knocks with the Cincinnati Bengals is scheduled to premiere on August 12th.

I feel like we’re becoming too preoccupied with HBO sports on this site, but we watched Hard Knocks in its entirety when they were filming at the Chiefs mini-camp in 2007. We couldn’t stomach more than a couple episodes with the Cowboys, and we get a sneaking suspicion that as much as we’re anticipating the insider look with the Bengals, it could be just as dull. Plus the show always felt hollow to me, I never really understand what the point is, and it makes the intense presentation of it so befuddling. Maybe last season it was just lacking in likable personalities, but it doesn’t really matter either way, because there is no way we don’t end up watching at least the first two episodes.

In other non-related news, Gloria Estefan now owns a hefty share of the Miami Dolphins. NFL fans/players are probably, by and large, the most concerned with being emasculated. Between the pretty pastel colors they sports, the smiling adorable Dolphin that is their logo, and a famous salsa dancing pop singer from then 80’s now owning a percentage of the team, I think this might be the last straw that leads to their base abandoning the team. They might as well have Kim Gandy come in and coach the team. I’m kidding of course, but is it going to surprise me if there’s some dust up in Jacksonville between a Jags fan that was heckling a Dolphins fan over his team’s new minority ownership? Probably not.

Their only hope is that most Dolphins fans don’t know who Gloria Estefan is (which seem highly improbable living in Miami) or they don’t read headlines in the off-season. Either way will suffice. But this could be the source of constant ridicule from opposing fans and players. At least in the article it says that the stadium will be named after Jimmy Buffet’s Land Shark Lager, that should help balance out the feelings of inadequacy. If nothing else they can get loaded on it. Things are going to seem really dire when they go 7-9 this season.

Probably it for the week unless something notable comes across the wire. Enjoy the weekend.

Not much going on other than the rumor that Green Bay is likely to reach a new deal with longtime under-appreciated wide out Greg Jennings. For essentially the past three seasons he’s been the best receiver on a pass happy offense and has managed to fly under the radar. Granted, he wasn’t a high draft pick, nor has he ever been top five in any receiving statistical category, but he’s been one of the more reliable receivers, right under the level of tier-1 players (which consists of Steve Smith, Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald).

If you were wondering what Greg Jennings looked like, now you know.

Green Bay, being the smallest market by far in all of professional sports, is always reluctant to renew or extend contracts for their players, and even more so with their receivers (anyone else remember the Javon Walker saga?). But this is probably long overdue. Whether they’ll admit it or not, the organization still has some reservations about Aaron Rodgers. And they’re desperate to prove that letting Brett Favre leave after he retired for the second time was the right decision.

Personally, I don’t think that’s something they have to concern themselves with, as Favre has already crashed and burned with the Jets, and Rodgers has shown a lot of potential in his first season. People think Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are viable QB options next season? Looked at their stats compared to Rodgers and then get back to me on that. Don’t get me wrong,  you don’t want to put too much faith/responsibility on the shoulders of any one person (like the Eagles have done for virtually McNabb’s entire career), and if I’m a Green Bay fan I have to be pleased with the news that renegotiations are so far amicable. But Rodgers has the capacity to quarterback a competitive playoff team.

The fact Green Bay is going out of their way to accommodate its players should also be a positive sign for their fantasy prospects. I’ve stated so before and this only solidifies my position: Green Bay is poised for a big season, both for fantasy and substantive purposes.

Going into pretty much any NFL or fantasy football season, by far and away the most predictable outcome of any field of players at a specific position is quarterback. I don’t think there’s much argument that should they all stay healthy, Manning, Brady, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Brees, Rivers and Warner should all have good to great fantasy seasons. That’s eight guys, snag one of them and all you need is a serviceable backup.

But going into the 2009 season there are a couple of anomalies. Specifically, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Both coming off fantastic rookie campaigns, not necessarily from a fantasy perspective, but from an efficiency one.  Still, everyone has  high expectations for fantasy and to lead their teams back into the playoffs. Both of which we’re skeptical of actually happening.

This reminds us of the case with Vince Young going into his sophomore season: He led his team into the playoffs, taking a wild card at 8-8 in a competitive AFC. He went into second year regularly ranked as a top ten quarterback on fantasy boards and (at least in a couple of anecdotal examples) going as high as the second round (though all these people who drafted him that high were from Texas). A concept which is obviously absurd in hindsight, but the hype became bigger than the actual player, and that’s regularly a good sign for a quarterback that inexperienced.

For starters, and people have a tendency to do this, you don’t want to overlook the players actual contribution to the team’s success. Yes, Flacco and Ryan both had respectable rookie seasons, but both had dominant running games spearheading the offense (especially Ryan) and overwhelming defenses that forced a lot of turnovers (especially Flacco). The common thread is to judge a quarterback by the wins and losses column (See: Cutler, Jay), and this typifies the overly-simplistic nature of NFL commentary that we can’t stand.

Sure, Cutler was second in the league in passing yardage and sixth in touchdowns with a non-existent running game, a mediocre receiving corps. and the worst defense in the league…but he missed the playoffs! Obviously this logic is flawed for fantasy football, but it’s actually used as justification for why Chicago is ill-fated in finally acquiring a quarterback with pro-bowl talent.

This is the antithesis to how people perceive Ryan and Flacco: They both made the playoffs so clearly they’re the next Marino and Montana. It’s arguments such as these two that make NFL analysis insufferable to watch. That, and the self-righteous nonsense from jocktards that used to inhabit these rosters. I know everyone will tell me they know more about the game than I ever will, and they should, but when I listen to them talk it really doesn’t feel that way.

Anyhow, I have much higher hopes for Ryan than I do for Flacco, and I’d still draft all the aforementioned quarterbacks before these two (and there are about six others in the conversation). These teams aren’t going to rely on the passing game for points, they’re going to rely on moving the ball on the ground and go to air it out sporadically, just to keep teams honest. So try reign it in a bit come draft time, you’d be better off relying on their backups off of waiver wire than taking either of these guys in the first three rounds.

Between the NBA draft, people actually caring about golf and tennis over the weekend and baseball garnering its usual headlines, the NFL is probably experiencing its quietest stint of the calendar year. Meaning, there isn’t much to write about. Not that there would be otherwise. The Patriots minicamp could be infiltrated with swine flu and it would be inconsequential to this site since it’s June.

Expect to see more of this come October.

But there’s a little news circulating, and it can pretty much all be found in this post on ESPN, and I’m just going to echo part of it and offer a little hack’s knowledge. Most notably from that little rundown, there are rumors that Beanie Wells is slow to come around in Arizona, and you shouldn’t over-draft him as right now he stands behind Tim Hightower and New York Mets pitcher Jason Wright*. I don’t have the same access as Tristan H. Cockcroft (which has to be an alias), but it seems a tad early in the preseason to be drawing such conclusions.

Apparently this is all happening not because he’s performed poorly, but because he wasn’t allowed to due to some odd rule that prevents rookies from working out with the teams that drafted them while their universities are in session. Since OSU is on quarters they run until early-mid June (most schools are on semesters, and end in early May), and Arizona starts there pre-season camps at some point before then.

So basically, what this news brief is saying, is that since Chris Wells wasn’t able to make practice in June due to some mitigating set of circumstances, as a first round draft pick he’ll be riding the bench playing third string and will only see PT when/if the Cardinals manage to blow anyone out. He’ll basically be filling Edgerrin James’ shoes except for being under-the-hill, he’ll be deemed unworthy of approaching it. Not to blow this out of proportion, but I wouldn’t buy this for a second. In fact, I don’t even know why I’m posting about it, because no one is ever going to remember Ken Wizzenhunt saying this when Wells is rushing for three touchdowns in week five against the Texans.

Assuming he stays healthy, I can’t think of a single, solitary reason Wells wouldn’t be starting by week three (and if they start slow, he’ll usurp Tim Hightower long before that). He’s runs a 4.5 at about 230 pounds, sees the opening in the line as well as anyone I’ve seen come through Ohio State, and has been playing to get in the NFL for the past two seasons (meaning he’s been indifferent to the games he’s been playing in lately). If you watched him play in college, your expectations should be pretty high. We’ve been carrying the Wells torch since January, but I don’t think this is clouding our judgment.

I’m not suggesting that Wells is infallible and that he’s an absolute surefire bet, because no one is. But the notion that Wells’ fantasy season is in jeopardy or his fantasy projection should be altered because he missed a couple practices in June seems a tad brash. If you’re looking for a reason to avoid Wells, then his constant stream of health issues (which I think he was overly cautious about to protect his NFL prospects), or his lack of breakaway speed or his tendency to get caught from behind (in college, no less). All of these are more valid concerns than his no show at a practice due to a league rule he has no control over, and one that will have no bearing on his game performance anyways.

*Not actually the pitcher for the Mets, but someone I’ve never heard of before.

We’ll see what the world brings us tomorrow.

God, it’s getting to the point that I can’t tell if I’m writing a fantasy football blog or a police beat, they’ve been relatively interchangeable this week. The most noteworthy moment to happen this past week was Artie Lange raking Joe Buck over the coals on Buck’s own show. Obviously, it goes without saying, that this has nothing to do with football, much less fantasy football. Joe Buck calls games as drabbly as is humanly possible, and Artie Lange cracks dirty jokes on satellite radio for a living. In short, there isn’t much happening (hence yet another unannounced sabbatical yesterday).

So anyway, lets go to a quick rundown of completely inconsequential news, at least for the topic at hand. There’s a good chance we take the first half of July off, just to cleanse the palate and wait for something substantive to write about, unlike this depressing shit.

Dante Stallworth, as I’m sure you’ve heard, plea bargained his way out of extended prison time and was eligible to play this season, until Roger Goodell said he wasn’t. From a fantasy perspective nothing’s changed from what we all thought the outcome of this would be, so we’ve veered away from it. However, the meatheads that comprise local Columbus radio have tempted me to get on my soapbox, but I have and will continue to refrain from doing a moral critique on this.

More Ohio related NFL legal trouble: Donte Whitner had his court date pushed back on charges stemming from a night club incident earlier this off-season. Donte Whitner, a highly effective defensive back, will probably always be best known for this, and for the Bills over-drafting him when they could have traded down to the mid-20’s and still have gotten “their guy”. Anyhow, whatever bearing this might have on your fantasy team is minimal at best, if you were stuck drafting the Bills defense you probably have bigger problems.

And finally, in retiree news: Bernie Kosar is filing for Chapter 11 and Ryan Leaf has turned himself in and posted bail, I have no idea for what, though it doesn’t really matter… But, but, they’re not receivers, they’re quarterbacks. How could this be? I thought only receivers fucked up their personal and professional lives, that’s why we call them divas, because they’re completely unmanageable and have no reliable skill-set outside of catching a football. These two have a chance to get back on track though, unlike that filthy thug Chad Johnson, who is clearly a criminal because he likes to do creative end zone dances that fans and teammates find wildly entertaining. Isn’t that right, Joe Buck?

Ahem, got a little off-track there.

Anyways, yes, the world is a fucked up place and the NFL isn’t immune to it. It’s almost like these are real people that occasionally have to deal with real world issues. Wow, how eye-opening.

Back next Monday with something new on the docket.

You know, I write this blog and I feel like I am fairly apt in the trials and tribulations of the NFL and fantasy football. But truth be told, much like everyone else that writes about football either professionally or for recreation, I am very much a layman. Outside of a couple of summer workouts when I contemplated going out for receiver in high school, I’ve never played the game on a competitive level, never coached it, and when I post I usually prefer to keep this in mind: There’s a strong chance you’re embarrassingly wrong.

That said, when first your pro-bowl caliber quarterback, whose never had a problem with anyone in the organization, never complained about anyone in college despite him being heads and shoulders better than everyone else on his team, suddenly decides he wants to skip town because of a new coaching regime, I’m a little skeptical when the team claims he’s being too demanding.

But again, I’m not there. I have no idea what the circumstances are or how NFL front office politics work.

I'm not convinced he isn't a rogue cell for the Raiders.

However, if a few months later your pro-bowl receiver who led the league in receptions last season decides he wants traded as well, then I think it’s safe to say you made a poor coaching hire. I know Brandon Marshall hasn’t exactly been a model citizen, but just like with Cutler, I don’t remember any of his teammates or Mike Shannahan having any complaints about him. I guess what I’m wondering (and the only thing that can save Josh McDaniels’ reputation before he even coach’s a single game) is if his two best players are/were disgruntled because they have personal/professional issues with McDaniels himself, or if they’re displeased with the firing of Shannahan in the first place.

The latter might make him a viable candidate down the road when he goes looking for another job (because he’s getting fired from this job in two years tops, and my prediction is by the end of the 2009 season) after this team goes 2-14 (if they’re lucky). Honestly, if you’re looking at the type of season the Broncos are staring at, you do not, under any circumstances, spend your first round pick on a running back. That was his first mistake, after isolating his two best weapons on the offensive end.

At least there is one constant in Denver.

And you know what? Those two wins might be generous. Cutler and Marshall made that team respectable (they didn’t really blow that lead in the AFC West so much as they realized their talent level), and the team was offensively explosive with one of the ten worst running games in the league.  They had the second worst defense, and in just about any other year it would have been top dog, they just happened to exist simultaneously with the first ever 0-16 team in the history of the league. What are they going to look like with Kyle Orton as their starting QB and Eddie Royale as their biggest offensive threat? Shudder.

I suppose the good news for Broncos fans — other than the cheerleaders, of course — is that the turnover rate for playoff teams in the NFL is high. And so long as you can keep from becoming a permanent fixture in the cellar (Raiders, Lions, etc), you’re never that far removed from being in the playoffs. Problem is, I’m not so sure they aren’t closer to finding themselves amongst those teams than they are to making a wild card.

Back later with whatever may come across the ticker.

Nothing really to speak of with fantasy football, but if you happen to catch Joe Buck Live last night it was probably a little more “newsworthy” than an offensive lineman holding out at camp. If you didn’t watch it, the entire hour (at least the segments when sports were discussed) was basically about the NFL. And let me just say, that having a prolonged conversation with Brett Favre probably couldn’t go much better, but it was still one of the more stinted and awkward conversations I’ve seen in awhile.

The Packer legend kicked off the hour (at least after Buck’s “hilarious” monologue), and for roughly twenty minutes we got to listen to Favre hem-and-haw over his relationship with the Vikings and the likelihood of him coming back to the NFL. It was a great third of an hour filled with non-answers and boyish “charm”, which apparently these days just means you can’t confidently form a complete sentence. He did give one direct answer when he said he wouldn’t play for anyone else other than Minnesota, which is a euphemism for “I don’t need to play for a team that I regard as having no shot of winning a Super Bowl with or without me.”

He seemed even more disinterested than the audience.

The second segment — after another vexing interlude from Buck that was a field interview with David Wright, a guy who plays baseball for one of the New York teams, it would seem — was with Michael Irvin and Chad Johnson, and they chose this segment to chastise Chad Johnson for having the audacity to attempt to entertain people, by conflating his on-field antics with operating outside the law like so many of his peers on the Bengals. Irvin talked about him like he wasn’t even in the room, and Joe Buck even ran a segment about athletes and celebrities off-the-field dalliances being documented by TMZ and other media outlets.

The segment could have painted the founder of The Smoking Gun to look a little more creepy than they did, but I’m glad they found some restraint. I actually found him to be refreshing in a segment that desperately needed some logic thrown into the mix. For god knows what reason, every mainstream pundit/columnist desperately wants the illegal discretions of professional athletes to be kept discrete (unless of course it involves steroids), and that’s something I’ve never really understood. Why is the reputation of a stranger who gets a DUI so important to them? It felt like they were painting Smoking Gun guy as the arch-villain and Ari Fleischer, a PR guy for several athletes, as the hero; protecting the reputation of occasionally amoral athletes.

Anyhow, Johnson –who mailed in an appearance for Hard Knocks and HBO synergy– had the good sense to bring up the fact that the only thing he’s guilty of is being a tad self-aggrandizing to the majority of NFL spectators (though Bengals fans probably love that degree of celebration when they’re winning). When Joe Buck pressed him to admit he’s been detrimental to at least his own team (and somehow this is related to the topic at hand of illegal activity), Johnson held his feet to the fire and asked for examples. Naturally, Joe Buck didn’t have any.

Who would've thought he'd be vulgar?

The real carnage came when Artie Lange came on set and basically just eviscerated Joe Buck during the television and “overtime” segment that they post online (and have subsequently removed). Outside of a few off-the-cuff remarks from Lange to Irvin, basically none of it had to do with football, but it warrants mentioning because it made the Bissinger-Leitch dust up on Costas Now from a little over a year ago look like a Bill Moyers interview.

In short, a complete and colossal failure that is now making headlines everywhere because Artie Lange basically asked Joe Buck if he likes to perform oral-sex on men. As a result, that show in September will probably air according to plan.

Probably it for today, back with some more tomorrow. Maybe Denis Leary will ask Al Michaels if his second favorite website is lickingscrotums.com

Sorry about the hiatus, folks. We were under the weather to the point we were skipping work, and even more so than usual. Not to mention there isn’t/wasn’t much going on in the way of fantasy football, with my 101 temperature I was feeling even less compelled to post. Again, my apologies. Next time I’ll try to be more perseverant when I can’t lift my head.

This whole thing could have been avoided if he found something a little more manageable.

But that brings us to the week with a couple dour notes. Well, you be the judge. Plaxico Burress’ court date has been pushed back to September, meaning he won’t go to trial until at least Summer of 2010 (there are entirely too many people in New York). This could be construed as good news…I guess. It entirely depends on where he ends up for anyone who cares either way. But I think when you’re relying on delayed trials to actually get on the field, your career has taken a turn for the worst.

Also, before you get all anxious looking to steal Burress early should he end up in Philly or New Orleans or some place equally attractive for receivers, remember that he will still be suspended by the NFL. I think this is a first strike (so to speak) with Burress, so expect him to miss around four to five games. You know, the same penalty they have for steroid abuse.

Also, Vince Young gave one of the more bizarre interviews with Michael Smith on Sportscenter that was replayed to death yesterday. In it, he claims that “suicide wasn’t an option”. Well, that’s good. But again, when you’re refuting accusations of attempted suicide, things have not gone according to plan. I think right now the last thing Young should be concerned with is his status on the Titans, because they seem content to let him backup Kerry Collins for the time being, and it’s been alleged that he might have some other…issues to work out. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, do not over-draft anyone from Tennessee this season. I mean, it’s wise not to over-draft anybody, but if all things are equal, take the guy who isn’t on the Titans.

And finally (this has no preset notions of tawdriness too it, at least not from a legality/mortality standpoint), we have trouble in 8-8 paradise: Owen Daniels did not show up for mini-camp. Oh no, now who’s going to be your fall back tight-end available on the waiver wire when the Steelers are on their bye week?

I guess from the team’s perspective this is kind of a big deal, Owen Daniels might be the best blocker they have on their line. But from a fantasy perspective? You’re better off drafting Brandon Pettigrew, since Detroit has a rookie quarterback and he’s a monstrous target that should be downfield, in between the tackles. Point being, I think as the season progresses, you can find better tight ends, despite what every fantasy publication may tell you. If his physical projections as a newborn were anywhere nearly as inflated as his yearly fantasy projections, I’m pretty sure he’s about two feet shorter than he was supposed to be.

Back with more tomorrow.

There’s a bunch of non news items like people returning to camp, Brett Favre status with the Vikings and op-ed on Mike Vick, but it’s all incredibly mundane, retread material that the NFL is famous for. Personally, I think I’d rather jump into a pit of lava filled with gremlins than write about “What It All Means” with any of these news-breaks, because they’re all so meaningless.

For some reason, the NFL isn’t making headlines in early June. Right now fantasy baseball is in vogue, and I can’t think of anything more relentlessly boring. I know a lot of people enjoy it, and I really shouldn’t judge. I play fantasy basketball and actually enjoy it more than football, but I feel like there’s a fine line of excessiveness with statistical productivity that fantasy basketball and fantasy baseball rest on opposite sides of.

So in lieu of having anything related to the NFL to write about that doesn’t consist of some headline like, “why this trade/acquisition will spell S-U-C-C-E-S-S for your fantasy team?”, we’re going to list the top ten sports/sporting events that would relate kindly to the fantasy realm but for whatever reason they aren’t (In other words, every sport that isn’t football, baseball, basketball, hockey, Nascar, golf and box office predictions), because no one’s ever done anything like this.

1) The Olympics

This is a tad vague, but you could pick individual athletes, countries, keep it confined to individual sports or a field of hand-selected ones. In all, this is probably the best fantasy sport option, and it would actually force you to take an interest in something most Americans either completely disregard or only pretend to care about. Not to mention the eye candy. Tell me, all things being equal, would you rather stare at the woman off to the left or Vince Wilfork in skin tight clothing?

2) Boxing

Man, if there was ever a sport that needed an influx of creative approaches to watch it. It’s simple: more points are earned for the heavier the weight classes, but the league would span every class from feather to heavy. The scoring format would be something like points earned for each win to varying degrees with decision, KO and TKO; bonus points for successful title defenses. This is obviously a rough overview that could be tweaked, but I think it’s the best chance to revive a sport that has been relying on HBO reality mini-series for exposure.

3) Soccer

Soccer also offers a fair share of work distractions.

This is a tad tricky since the scoring is so low, but if you brought non-productive stats like shots on goal or successfully deflected goal kicks,  then I think you have a game. Also, this would lend itself kindly to the World Cup, which seems completely unpredictable every year (at least from the very distant view with which I watch the World Cup) , and the way it is formatted with randomly compiled “groups” and whatnot, it would be much easier to score. The sport is so god damn tabloid infested you could get points for each confirmed WAG one of your players/teams managed to bed.

4) Horse Racing

Much like boxing, this is a sport definitely in need of a revival. Not so much because we still pretend to be knowledgeable and intrigued by at least one race a year (though usually three). We’re not really sure we regard this as a sport, though. And if you’ve ever been inside a sport book in Vegas or at an a track, we think they already have a version of fantasy horse racing available for those interested, it’s called traditional gambling. I hear it’s a blast. Me? I prefer the pig races at county fairs.

5) Lacrosse

I can’t begin to express my annoyance with this sport and it would seem virtually everyone who plays it, but it does accompany itself well to the fantasy concept: moderately high scoring, defensive statistics that laymen can follow and a growing player and fan base. I would never give this northeast institution the satisfaction of me following it, because it seems to attract some of the more loathesome and irritating college students known to man.

tied for 6th) Surfing & Bull-riding

There probably isn’t two sports with more dissimilar fan bases and participants, but for both it’s all about duration of time. In other words, how long does your surfer/rider stay upright riding a wave/a bull. And if one of the people you drafted dies in competition, you lose the spot on your roster.

Bowling

Points can be earned by placement and by final score. It could be calculated on a sliding scale from 300 and from first place. Plus, alcohol and sandwich consumption could be supplementary categories, like turnovers and offensive rebounds in fantasy basketball.

9) Tennis

It just seems so remarkably predictable that I can’t imagine this holding anyone’s interest. Either you have Federer or Nadal or you don’t, and that’s basically your league. Even then, which surface they’re playing on, nine times out of ten it will tell the tale. Maybe you could keep them out of your draft just so the two people who randomly would get the top picks wouldn’t be assured to finish in the money.

10) Poker

I’ve actually heard this tossed around as a possibility, but gambling on gambling seems like it’s about the last sign of a problem. If this is something you’re engaging in, chances are your spouse has left you, you’ve lost your job and have emptied your savings. Two weeks after joining a “fantasy poker” league I’m pretty certain that murder at least crosses your mind.

We’ll keep it at ten because as little as we know about the nine aforementioned sports, we know even less about something like Jailai, Rugby, Cricket and Field Hockey. I don’t want to be misleading, we wouldn’t ever actually partake in any of this, as introverted as we are, even we like to get away from flickering monitors a couple times a day.  Anyhow, this was fun, even if it was only used for filler. Hopefully something pertaining to the NFL that doesn’t invoke the names/words Favre, Vick, rookie, extension or mini-camp will make some headlines, and we can use that as fodder for this site.

We often lament how difficult and pointless it is to keep a fantasy football website updated from the months of February to…July, we’ll say. But perhaps we shouldn’t complain so much, since Matthew Berry took the time to compile a top 200 fantasy list for ESPN. Of course, I probably wouldn’t complain if I was making more than a 1,000th of what Berry does, but that’s besides the point. I suppose there is a market for some of this so we might as well jump on the bandwagon, we’re going to give you five reasons Matthew Barry’s list is misguided. And none of these reasons will be, “he was too lazy to number his top 200″.

1) Knowshon Moreno is his top rated rookie.

The team will be lucky if a fan cares this much in 2009.

He actually makes a big deal out of this, as it’s the headline atop the window in Firefox, but it’s just patently false and wreaks of standard NFL short-sightedness and blatant ignorance of college football (it’s so peddling to the meat head conglomerate that makes up a decent majority of the NFL fan base). Just in terms of running backs, Chris Wells and (if Joesph Addai doesn’t return from surgery in time) Donald Brown will be infinitely more valuable than Moreno, who’s going to slip into virtual anonymity playing in Denver, the leading contender right now to replicate the 2008 Lions.

Actually, you might hear about Moreno, but it won’t be in a positive light. It will be something like, “Knowshon Moreno, rookie running back for the Denver Broncos, tore every ligament in his body playing in San Diego today. Yes, once the Chargers realized that the Broncos run blocking is a shell of its former self and that they don’t have a passing game to keep defenses honest, Shawne Merriman tackled the once promising Georgia alum seven yards deep in the backfield”. I’m not even going to bother getting into the receivers that could be better fantasy options.

2) Michael Turner is his highest rated player.

He also makes a point of patting himself on the back for rating Adrian Peterson #2, which you can definitely make an argument for, but not in favor of Turner. For starters, Turner is sacrificing carries to Norwood still, they’re inevitably going to have a more difficult schedule (which means tougher defenses than last season), Turner is small, vulnerable to injury and has only carried a backfield for one season. That’s usually enough to label you enough of a risk to drop you a bit in rankings. He should have a great season, but there are better surefire bets out there (Matt Forte, Jones-Drew come to mind).

3) Thomas Jones cracked his top 15.

Say what you will about Brett Favre, his presence alone made the running game respectable in New York. Don’t believe me because it’s in vogue to discredit Brett Favre (which I’ve made a hobby of doing since 2001)? Look at Thomas Jones’ numbers from 2007 to 2008, most notably the touchdown totals (from two to fifteen). I wouldn’t expect a drop-off of such an absurd degree, if for no other reason than the offensive line is just so much improved since the 2007 campaign. But if you think Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens is demanding the same attention from defenses as Favre, then you’re probably a Jets fan. Oh, and they used their second pick in the draft on a running back (Shonn Greene out of Iowa).

4) LaDanian Tomlinson cracks the top ten.

Why does this seem like it’s done out of nostalgia? How many more disappointing seasons will Tomlinson need to have before he’s assessed properly? I hate to sound cynical, but at some point we’re going to be forced into realizing that in today’s NFL, a running back’s usefulness to his franchise has a five year shelf-life, anything more than that and you’re playing with house money. I’m giving it a 65% chance that Sproles accumulates more yards than Tomlinson.

5) Running backs solely occupy the top thirteen.

We harped on this yesterday, but more to the point: these guys are durable but injury prone. Meaning, they could miss half a season and come back almost to where he was when he left, but he still misses those eight games. It’s not an slight against the plethora of people occupying the position, but rather just the nature of it. I know it sounds crazy, but six foot, 200 pound men repeatedly colliding into 6′3, 270 pound men, can be kind of hazardous for the former.

With that in mind, and given the inherent unpredictability of the NFL, are we that certain that Stephen Jackson or Clinton Portis or Steve Slaton are going to have better fantasy seasons than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson? I wouldn’t complain because sure, you can make that argument. But it doesn’t seem like the counter-argument is ever taken into consideration.

Anyhow, I could go on dissecting this thing. Nitpicking every single perceived liberty Matthew Berry took with his rankings, but that would be too monotonous for an already monotony-laden post. We’ll stop here and leave you to make your own interpretations.

I come to you this week bearing good news regarding the state of fantasy football in June: ESPN is now offering round-the-clock mock drafts. Regrettably I admit that this made me way happier than it had any business doing. You mean I can inconsequentially pick NFL players based on projected statistical output with complete strangers from all over the country? Sign me up!

If you’re a tad OCD about this and don’t have much of a social life, this is the perfect way to waste your time while pretending you’re doing something constructive by “prepping” for your fantasy football draft. This is a total fallacy, obviously, but it makes the act itself seem more dignified. Besides, I think there is a small amount of truth that participating in a couple of these will put you in a better situation when it comes time for your real fantasy draft (this is generally the one you actually invest money in).

I mean, the sample size has to be enormous for it to actually mean anything, plus you probably know the majority of people you’re drafting with well enough that you don’t need a fucking gallop poll to determine which way they’re going to sway. But look: I ended up with my first four picks (8th overall) being Andre Johnson (second best receiver bar none going into this season), Brandon Jacobs (no more Derrick Ward eating up carries), Wes Welker (absolutely primed for a 2007 like resurgence) and Aaron Rodgers (kind of an over-draft, but his numbers last year were gaudy and he’s only going to improve on them).

Beyond that I can’t remember who I took other than Jason Witten in the sixth, Felix Jones, Jay Cutler as my backup QB, Kenny Watson in the fifteenth round, Minnesota’s defense after I had drafted all my other starters, Muhsin Muhammad, Shonn Greene and LeSean McCoy. It’s all pretty meaningless since there were only three people not auto-picking by the fifth round.

But more so than who was drafted where and how that might reflect the draft that I care about two months from now, it gave me a better feel for the 2009 landscape. Right now, virtually every team is running two (and in some cases three) viable running backs. Given the rate of injury and the considerably unpredictable nature of the position,  there is absolutely no reason to dedicate any of your higher picks to running back. In fact much like last year, I’d advocate filling your receiver slots earlier than most, since most would agree that Larry Fitzgerald is so much more of a sure thing than Maurice Jones-Drew (whom I actually like).

Anyways, that’s all I really have for you today. We should be returning tomorrow with some injury/surgery/optional mini-camp news.