Fantasy Football

We are getting around to this late, but we were busy writing this, which is very much apropos of this post. Anyhow, yesterday we covered the women of Mad Men and their current day NFL counterparts. Today we cover the men of Sterling Cooper and draw a random, innocuous and easily refutable comparison for them. Shall we?

Note: We left off Bryan Batt as Salvatore because we don’t want Kordell Stewart tracking us down, as well as Joel Murray as Fred Rumsen, because the most notable thing he has done is play Mozart or something with his zipper.

Don Draper - LaDanian Tomlinson
He doesn’t play the most crucial position (that belongs to the quarterback & Roger Sterling), but he is the most integral and least dispensable part of the team. Don has come from humble beginnings to surprise everyone who ever knew him. Tomlinson went to TCU of all places and was traded for the rights to Mike Vick on draft day, in a move that was widely considered a misstep for the Chargers. Needless to say, I think they’ve both made a lifetime of proving people wrong.

Roger Sterling - Marvin Harrison
Roger: Quietly reckless, stoic in success and always able to cover up any immoral behavior even after sustaining a heart attack. Marvin Harrison: Potentially (likely) has a disturbing past but has always maintained a solid reputation as someone you would want your kids to look up to. I’d probably rather my non-existent kids modeled themselves after Randy Moss. It was either him or one of the couple hundred NFL players that probably cheats on his wife.

Bert Cooper - Jeff Garcia
Cooper seems to be growing a little senile these days, and I think constantly being disregarded and looked over for a replacement has finally gotten to Jeff Garcia. He’s 38, and has spent his entire career being everyones second choice, and he might be starting to lose it. (Other considerable choices for this: Roy Williams, Al Davis & Pacman Jones).

Duck Phillips - Vince Young
The Vince Young to Don’s Tomlinson. Duck sees the future of the ad business and is willing to adapt and take risks while doing so. Young represents the newer model of quarterback and is very unconventional and progressive in his approach to the game. Given their respective performances to date, their shortcomings outweigh their accomplishments and their hype and status is unwarranted.

Pete Campbell - Terrell Owens
Needlessly ruffles feathers, throws temper-tantrums over nothing and always seems to feel slighted. The only real difference between these two, is Pete happens to be white, married and built like he is made out of play-doe. Oh, and while Pete wanders if he will cry, Owens unabashedly and unapologetically does it on national television over his teammate’s sensibilities after he cost them a playoff game.

Harry Crane - Philip Rivers
Just kind of a bumbling fucking idiot. Both of them.

Ken Cosgrove - Andre Johnson
Undervalued, vital to the process but not always available in one way or another (injury, the Utz potato chip incident) and has as of now been toiling away in virtual obscurity.

Paul Kinsey - Clinton Portis
We would link these two together for their outrageous wardrobes alone, but both have an inflated ego and unproven since of self-worth. Portis regularly puts his foot in his mouth, while Paul walks on eggshells hoping to avoid doing so but still manages to be Don’s whipping boy.

Surprisingly, these pairings seem a lot more thin than those for the women of Mad Men. No idea why.

Anyhow, That’s probably it until Tuesday, where we will review our draft from our pay league that is Sunday night. Yes, that means we are probably taking Monday off. If we aren’t hungover then we might consider otherwise.

The Washington Redskins will play the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight on NBC. You could watch this game and scout backups for the inevitable injuries both teams are set to incur. Or! You could watch the first three games of college football and look for promising prospects for the 2009 season. I’d probably go with the latter, because I sure as shit do not want any Redskins on my team, and Jacksonville is a quarterback, a slew of receivers that will all get playing time and a couple running backs that everyone is fully aware of. I’m going with the college games, but the choice is yours, my friends.

But, since this is an NFL fantasy site, here are some players to look out for this season on these respective teams. There is no guarantee that any of these players will take the field, but should they receiver ample and meaningless PT, they are worth considering this fantasy season.

Jacksonville

Troy Williamson/Jerry Porter: The new tandem of mediocre to potentially good receivers in Jacksonville’s arsenal. We tend to think Williamson has the better chance to finally succeed, if for nothing else than we have no reason to believe he doesn’t want to. But, given Minnesota’s dismal quarterbacks since Williamson was drafter seventh overall in 2004, Porter has actually demonstrated more productivity in his career.

If he was mass produced and sold as an action figure, he just has to be good.

Chauncey Washington: With Maurice Jones-Drew already having “P”’s and “Q”’s next to his name on ESPN, it is safe to assume that he, and the often maligned for his health problems, aging Fred Taylor might need someone to at least spell them, if not take over the bulk of the running game. Chauncey Washington could end up being that person. We don’t necessarily recommend drafting him, but the rookie out of USC is someone to keep an eye on as the typical rotation of running backs is churned out this season from the waiver wire.

Washington Redskins

Devin Thomas: This kid can play and should grow to be at least a reliable second option on a contender at some point in his career. I watched him rather closely at Michigan State and he exceeded expectations there. Washington has apparently opted to play their starters tonight (something I was not aware of earlier), making his value all the better should Santana Moss or Antwaan “I’ll never realize my full potential” Randle-El sustain some sort of injury, which is bound to happen. Even if it doesn’t, they are both past their prime and kind of inconsistent. Look for Thomas to get more and more looks as the season carries on, and a viable pick should you procrastinate drafting wide outs this season.

Malcolm Kelly: Pretty much the same expectations I have for this rookie receiver out of Oklahoma, only to a slightly lesser extent. Again, his predecessors are only so reliable, and he produced some decent numbers and showed a lot of potential with the Sooners. And I say this as a person with an adamant distaste for all things Oklahoma football.

That is pretty much the extent of it. We’re not exactly going to see a fantasy monsoon between these two squads (particularly out of the Redskins). But if you need something to keep your attention during this game — and I know you will — this is your saving grace.

So apparently when I use the word “later” to describe the length of time before a new post, we actually mean “tomorrow”. I just wanted to clarify.

Anyhow, we don’t know how big the crossover audience is for a post like this, but since both Mad Men and fantasy football are immensely popular, we figured it might draw at least a modest amount of hits — as opposed to not hits at all — to compare the characters from the 1960’s Madison Avenue drama with like-minded fantasy football performers. This comparison is subjective, tenuous and completely pointless, but it gives me something to write about. This morning we’ll start with the women of Mad Men, then tomorrow find appropriate likenesses for the male characters.

Joan Holloway - Terrell Owens
Flamboyant, unpredictable and caustic when needed to be. To much the same degree Miss Holloway is wanted by all men with fixations on red heads for sexual gratification, Owens is wanted by all fantasy owners for his proclivity for the end zone. They are both over thirty and amazingly still considered to be very much in their prime.

Peggy Olson - Drew Brees
The underdog. In every sense of the term, both have defied expectations via mitigating circumstances. Drew Brees, drafted with the first pick in the second round, was initially expected to play backup for at least awhile if not his entire career before Phillip Rivers decided to hold out during his rookie season, enabling the starting position for Brees to demonstrate his hidden talents. Peggy, after being used in a test study for Bel-Jolie lipstick, managed to stand out amongst her peers as a potentially great copywriter without fully realizing it.

Betty Draper- Donovan McNabb
Overly loyal and increasingly agitated perfectly describes these two peas in a pod. While McNabb struggles to stay healthy and is constantly questioned when he is, Betty is growing resentful of her place in her life and marriage, but stands by her man all the same (It just dawned on me that some of these players and the actresses might not appreciate these comparisons).

Rachel Menken - Peyton Manning
Talented and principled, both have followed in their family’s footsteps into retail and quarterbacking respectively, and seemingly carry a sense of entitlement as a result. There flaws are minimal: While Rachel sleeps with married men before marrying someone her father would approve of, Manning pisses off his offensive line with numerous and endless audibles, inducing suicide attempts and probably rampant spousal abuse on a weekly basis. And they are both second options in their own way.

Midge Daniels - Chad Johnson
Both potentially out for the season, eccentric, and neither couldn’t be anymore unintentionally conformist while striving desperately to be non-conformist. If either exceeds expectations this year we would be surprised.

Bobbie Barrett - Brett Favre
Self-starting, over-achievers that no one other than business associates seems to like for varying reasons, but mantains the loyalty of a close few. Brett Favre, after spending a career in Green Bay, Wisconsin; is adapting to a new environment in New York, while Bobbie adjusts to and excels in television production coming from talent management.

Hildy (no last name on IMDB) - Jabbar Gaffney
Under-appreciated yet justifiably overshadowed, but talented enough to come through when is necessary. Hildy, to give Harry a much needed storyline and when Pete Campbell needs an earful. And Gaffney, for picking up the slack when Randy Moss is struggling/being triple-teamed.

Back with NFL equivalents for Don, Roger, Bert, Duck, Pete, Harry, Paul & Ken tomorrow, which means I might not post it until next week.

News and notes from around the league:

-Kyle Boller’s shoulder might not be ready for the first week of the season, to which everyone in Baltimore let out a sigh of relief. Seriously, this might be the best news for the city since The Wire went off the air. Why is he even contention for the starting position? Does any fan of this team want Boller starting over either Troy Smith or even Joe Flacco? It’s time to move on from six seasons of relative futility at the quarterback position. At least be futile with a different player. Anyhow, feel better about your Derrick Mason, Todd Heap & Willis McGahee picks.

Boller has Heath Shuler like potential...in that he might one day run for office. He could never match his performance on the football field.

-Michael Strahan has made it official: he is staying retired. I guess potentially funneling more money his ex-wife’s way isn’t all that appealing. Whatever it was, thank you for not Favre-ing us, Mr. Strahan.

Speaking of insufferable quarterbacks, Matt Leinart is not throwing in the towel on the battle for the QB1 spot with the Cardinals (the most prestigious position in all of sports). Even though everyone says he isn’t ready (which doesn’t really make any sense, considering this is third season with two pro-bowl receivers) he is throwing a temper-tantrum of sorts about Chris Mortenson’s report. I guess the question is, why is 37 year-old Kurt Warner even a viable competitor for the position? With the hype that Warner had coming out of USC, he should be competing for MVP, much less his job. Also, if you draft one of them, you have to draft both. Of the three main quarterbacks to come out in 2005 (Young, Leinart & Cutler), Cutler will prove to be the better of the three.

-If you are wondering why Earnest Graham is still a top twenty pick, it’s because Carnell Williams is now on the PUP list. What an injury plagued/bad luck career he has had to date, he’s like one step ahead of Ki-Jana Carter in terms of forces outside his control dictating his legacy. You’re aware of this if you’ve drafted him early in the past two seasons.

This was kind of weak, back with something else later.

What did I tell you, huh? What did I tell you? Did I not tell you that I would be back? No bruised thigh is going to keep me, Trent Edwards, out of the lineup, assuring a single starter at quarterback for the Bills and giving hope to your fantasy season after you waited until the twelfth round to draft a quarterback.

You think I’m going to let that Tulane putz reclaim the starting position by default? Fuck that. This Lossman guy couldn’t even hold a candle to Shaun fucking King, and he was a backup to Trent Dilfer. At least you knew what you would get out of King: a great clipboard holder. Me? Well, I’m an enigma. And expect it to stay that way.

You think Lossman should get the nod because we traded up to draft him in the first round? That by virtue of being a first round pick, I should take a backseat and recognize his fatter paycheck? Not going to happen. Me and Mr. Lossman will be unwavering all year in our inconsistency. You don’t even know which of us will start, let alone how we’ll play.

If you want what you qualify as a sure thing, then over draft a Chad Johnson-less Carson Palmer in the first five rounds of your draft, see how that works for you. But don’t fucking pretend like you can resist the allure of me in the 16th. Yeah, yeah, I know you want some finality in the status of your fantasy players, but it just isn’t going to happen. Not in this city. Not with me, not with Lossman, Not with Lee Evans, Not with ANYBODY! You will be begging for the days of an 2004 Drew Bledsoe when I’m through with you, Buffalo.

So go ahead, draft me, you know you want to. Just think about all the synergy we have in the backfield now that Marshawn Lynch has a year under his belt. It will make all the difference, you’ll see. Then once you have me, you’ll immediately regret not taking Vince Young in the 11th. The false hope you have in him is much greater than you have in me.

For the most part, one of the biggest dilemmas in constructing your fantasy football season is settling on a date. Some people do auto-drafts, which kind of defeats the entire purpose and sucks the life out of a fantasy league. You are literally letting machines make your decisions for you so you don’t have to be bothered with such trivial concerns. If you are so indifferent to something that you would let a computer do all the work for you, then why even bother to pretend that you’re interested?

Fuck off, auto-draft people. It’s always some spineless twerp with the unholy girlfriend suggesting this. Just because you are so pussy-whipped that you can’t break away from the death grip she has on your scrotum for a couple hours to even do an online draft, doesn’t mean the rest of us have to adhere to the demands of your over-eager cock. This same person is also responsible for the same complaints:

-Wants to keep the league friendly. In other words, he doesn’t want to put in any money in the confidence of his team. Fuck off. It’s friendly with or without money. Not all of us take the $20-$200 all that seriously because none of us have our finances monitored by someone we’ve been dating for two months.

-When he does agree to the draft, is regularly hurrying people because he is “short on time”. Translation: I made a promise to my girlfriend that I couldn’t keep because I am deftly afraid of her.

-Drafts a kicker in the first ten rounds because the kicker starts. This doesn’t impede on the draft and it technically plays in my favor, but it still pisses me off.

-Wants to invite his girlfriend to play.

Let it be known that in theory, I generally have no problem with the last one. The whole boys club thing is a little unsettling to me in a number of ways. But generally the culprit is so insistent regardless of whether we already have either the maximum amount of teams or an even number, and adding her would either exceed that maximum or round us out to an odd number of teams, meaning someone is always on a bye week. So to include her, we either have to kick someone out of the league, which is unfathomable; or scramble to find another participant for her inclusion.

I’m flexible. I can agree to the latter, typically. If said couple can assist in finding another participant that won’t bitch about the entry fee and is available for the designated time for the draft, it would be nice. But do not ever expect this. They never consider what a daunting task this is and just wait idly for you to make everything work out for their self-involved asses. So fuck off, needy girlfriend of/and pathetically complacent friend.

Occasionally you run into people that are completely unreasonable.

Anyhow, even with all the personal dilemmas and conflicting time tables, there is a new variable to factor in this equation: preseason injuries. It has been this way for roughly two or three years now so I am a little late on this, but scheduling your draft anytime before September is an exercise in futility. You spend at least a solid twenty minutes prepping for it, and for what? To draft a running back that tears his ACL in the second quarter of the third preseason game, because somehow that is when everyone decides that starters should go for roughly three quarters (unless you’re a top ten player). That’s twenty minutes in addition to the draft that you will never get back.

Generally it’s all fair because everyone is drafting at the same time, and you are all running the same gamut if you choose to draft in early August. If you did this, and you drafted Chad Johnson, then ‘dems the breaks. But it is in everyone’s best interest to keep the draft at least in late August, at least most star players have gotten their reps in and will generally be sidelined for that least preseason game.

Trust me when I say this is in everyone’s interest. Even if you stay healthy, you don’t want to hear the one person lamenting and clinging to that one injury to his star wide out as justification for why he is in last place, regardless of how legitimate it is. You want to stay injury free? Draft 1998 Brett Favre. Otherwise you conceded to the agreed upon draft date and knew the circumstances going in, so take your bitching to your coworkers because I don’t want to hear it.

Basically what I am saying is this: Never be your league’s commissioner. It is time consuming, nerve-racking and just a general pain in the ass trying to coordinate schedules and take individuals eccentricities into consideration. And before you know it the whole thing is like planning a wedding you don’t even want. My suggestion to avoid this responsibility is just keeping your mouth shut and waiting for someone else to bring it up, then force your recommendations on whichever sap agreed to run your league.

Back later.

If for some reason you are planning on watching the eyesore that is a pre-season football game between the Seahawks and Chargers (like, you’re a fan of one of these two teams or something), we figured profiling the potential fantasy dark horses for each team would be fitting. Mainly because you will be watching at least a half of backups. At least it is the third and not the fourth game, which is a disgrace to the American way of life.

Seattle:

Seneca Wallace: naturally Matt Hasselbeck is the starter, but he is thirty-three and now battling nagging injuries. Wallace has been his backup for as long as Jim Sorgi has backed up Peyton Manning. Some people seem to think he is actually capable of starting. We aren’t in that camp, but if you have Hasselbeck on your team or are a Seahawks fan, have a look at your almost certain future.

Maurice Morris/TJ Duckett: What the hell happened to Mack Strong? If there was ever a player with a name suited to play fullback, it is Mack Strong. Anyhow, is there a team TJ Duckett hasn’t played for at this point? And has he ever lived up to expectations? For those thinking he will be getting those goal line carries, I would think again. Size doesn’t necessarily mean strength. Who the hell is Maurice Morris?

Will Heller: He is actually listed as the starting tight end, which probably means he won’t see the field too much. If he does, keep your eyes peeled to see if they will be throwing to him this season. Or rather, if Seneca Wallace will throw to him if Hasselbeck is incapacitated. Nothing like having a wasted bench spot on a backup tight end no one has ever heard of.

San Diego:

Billy Volek: Not that you would ever draft him, but we kind of like Volek more than Rivers. If Rivers is to miss a game and your starter is Kurt Warner, we suggest taking a gander at who the Chargers are playing that week.

Jacob Hester: If you watched LSU at all last year, then you probably know that Hester leaves it all on the field when he suits up. If Tomlinson feels like conserving himself this season and they are going to distribute carries, and even more specifically goal line carries, Hester is a very viable alternative.

It is kind of a nightmare to travel all the way to New Orleans from Columbus, only to watch your team be decimated by a white running back.

Darren Sproles: Despite his diminutive size (though we will agree he is better suited as a third down back), Sproles has a lot of game in him. Again, his overall fantasy production hinges on Tomlinson’s health (or lack thereof), but he also shares return duties with Parker, redeeming the limitations of his pint size body coming out of the backfield.

The Defense: With Merriman probably missing at least a good portion of the season, you might want to observe who they might be replacing him with. Needless to say, if he does sit out a considerable amount of time, you might want to rethink these half-assed rankings.

Back tomorrow morning. Honestly.

As I understand it there are two different types of popularized salary cap leagues: One played with real money in which the market dictates each players value. And the other with fake money in which multiple teams can acquire one player, and that players stock either rises or falls with each passing week depending on performance. If the players stock rises, you can trade him out of his increased value or keep him on your roster.

If it wasn’t obvious from the intro, I joined a salary cap league with the latter. I would have been willing to do join a pay league, but it is through my Chiropractor with a bunch of strangers, so my input was expendable. (I am twenty-six and go to a chiropractor on a weekly basis while surrounded by geriatrics and whiplash victims. With any luck a picture of me will never make a public website, but you should be able to assume that I have a body of an eighty year-old man.)

But within the confines of the rules I am confined too, I like the change of pace. Basically, we all start out with $50,000,000 of fake money, we have to fill 12 roster spots (three receivers, three running backs, two quarterbacks, a defense, a tight end and a kicker) all of whom start and we have an unlimited number of transactions before the first week of the season. Meaning, if I bought one player then thought better of it, I can sell him and acquire someone else with the newfound available cap space.

Given the prices of the players, this is all a lot more difficult then it sounds. Basically, you want to buy low and sell high, or at least relative to how you think they will perform against their peers versus where they are priced at. For instance, I bought Ted Ginn for $2.15 million. If he pans out and becomes an elite receiver, his stock will rise potentially to that of a Chad Johnson who’s worth $5.25 million (I have no idea what the degree of fluctuation is like). I can then either stick with Ginn or trade him out for a better receiver or an upgrade at another position.

While a traditional fantasy league ironically is more akin to starting a business, the salary league is like solving a weekly puzzle. You are just trying to procure the best pieces to sufficiently complete it. You could, in theory, have the top twelve scorers every week if you play your hand right. This of course is highly unlikely; but is ultimately the goal. For the hell of it, here are the players I took for my twelve spots.

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees: $8.5 million
Matt Hasselbeck: $ 6.75 million

We went high on quarterbacks because we feel like out of the three major positions, the elite quarterbacks are more reliable than the elite players at running back or receiver. We still might swap out Hasselbeck for Matt Schaub ($5.35 million) and upgrade at wide out. You will see why in a minute.

Running Backs
Brian Westbrook: $9 million
Julius Jones: $5.52 million
Jonathan Stewart: $4.8 million

We bought pretty high with running backs to, and we expect this portion of our roster to have a much higher turnover rate than any other. But you have to have an arsenal of players and we feel like Jones and Stewart, while priced a little higher than we would like to see relative to their peers, we are still getting a bargain price for how their seasons will turnout. We were torn between Stewart and Mendenhall, but since Willie Parker will probably eat up a lot more early carries than DeAngelo Williams we went with the Oregon alum. Of course, we drafted Brandon Jackson in the seventh round last season, so it is best not to listen to us.

Receivers
Jerricho Cotchery: $5.25 million
Ted Ginn: $2.15 million
Bryant Johnson: $1.15 million

This is where it gets dicey. Because while I over-indulged at quarterback and running back (particularly quarterback), we looked for value at receiver. Cotchery will have a huge season that will land him in the top ten for receivers. We are certain of this. Ted Ginn is the top wideout and return man on a Miami Dolphins team that can only improve. It is with Bryant Johnson we feel like we are playing roulette because of how anemic the Niners offense has been since Jeff Garcia left town. Still, it’s only for a little over a fiftieth of our cap so it isn’t much of a gamble, plus we like that he will be starting with a new team with a new offensive coordinator (Mike Martz) and potentially a new quarterback in San Fran.

It's probably not a good sign that of the first twenty images on a Google image search for Ted Ginn, 14 of them he is in OSU garb.

Tight end: Jeremy Shockey, $3.3 million
We are mulling this one over still, but we initially bought Tony Gonzalez and sold him to upgrade at running back.

Defense: New York Jets, $2.35 million
This will probably change every week for us based on match ups. The Jets week one opponent? Miami. It kind of contradicts our Ted Ginn pick, but we’re alright with that.

Kicker: Mike Nugent, $1.2 million
Whatever. He has looked bad in the off-season but we expect him come around. This is also dependent on match-up but won’t change as much because it is blind luck.

After doing an overview we realized how monolithic our selection of players is. Essentially, if he isn’t on the Jets, Seahawks, Saints or our favorite team, or didn’t go to Ohio State, then his name is Bryant Johnson or Jonathan Stewart. This will probably hurt us, but it is for fun and experimental so we really don’t give a shit. We are still tinkering with this team and fully expect it to blow up in our face.

Back with something you might actually care about later.

Sorry for the incredibly late post. We have an explanation over here, but if you don’t want to click on the link, long story short is: we had to give a coworker a ride to the mechanic. If we didn’t have to do that, this would have been posted at least five hours ago. If it makes you feel any better, said coworker is now on our shit list.

But anyways, given the likelihood that everyone reading this is only drafting one tight end, one kicker and one defense; we decided it is better to cram them all into one succinct post instead of trying to think of something clever, insightful or interesting to say about Mason Crosby.

So, hear is Talking Fantasy Football’s top ten of each of these three positions:

Tight Ends:

1) Kellen Winslow - Everything he did last season plus whatever comes with a year’s experience.
2) Jason Witten - Can block, but basically a second wide out.
3) Antonio Gates - Ditto
4) Tony Gonzalez - …And now with a second year starter.
5) Jeremy Shockey - Very tempting to put as high as two, but we’ll play it conservatively.
6) Todd Heap - So long as Troy Smith is the quarterback.
7) Alge Crumpler - Should rebound with a QB that doesn’t like throwing to shitty receivers.
Dallas Clark - Always reliable.
9) Chris Cooley - underused and still finished sixth in overall scoring.
10) Vernon Davis - Is fully capable, just waiting on team catch up with him

One name we intentionally left of this list is Heath Miller. Why? because fuck Heath Miller. We’ve over-drafted him each of the past two seasons when he should have broken out, but since he is such a skilled blocker, they divy up tight end plays between him and some other white guy who was too slow to be a linebacker. So fuck the Steelers with a pineapple.

This might be too light, proper vindictation might have to be one of those square watermelons.

Defenses:

1) Minnesota - Just hope Tavaris doesn’t throw too many interceptions deep in their own territory.
2) San Diego - Always rated highly, and always live up to it. Last year they led the league in production.
3) Green Bay - Balanced defense with no glaring weaknesses.
4) Jacksonville - They lost Marcus Stroud, but still have a loaded attack.
5) Tennessee - Should only get better, but they have the same liability as Minnesota.
6) New England - Sometimes on the field too long, and rarely have long breaks as the offense scores quickly.
7) Tampa Bay - As balanced as Green Bay, just not as good.
New York Giants - Will they create the same pressure in the backfield without Strahan? We tend to think so.
9) Seattle - Great at home, vulnerable on the road.
10) Dallas - Should improve, but we’re reluctant to believe it.

When it comes to predicting the success of a team’s defense, few things are more imperative than schedule. Which we didn’t look at before determining these rankings. Heed this advice at your own peril.

Kickers

Top Five:
1) Nick Folk - The variables that make up a kickers strength: Accuracy and the offenses ability to move the ball. Folk has both in spades.
2) Adam Vinateri - Google him if you don’t know why.
3) Phil Dawson - See Nick Folk.
4) Shane Graham - NFL in Ohio will at least excel in something.
5) Jason Elam - You have a better suggestion?

Bottom Five:
1) David Akers - His performance parallels McNabb’s health over the past five seasons.
2) Rian Lindell - Who? Also, he plays for Buffalo.
3) Joe Nedney - He could be the next Vinateri, but he plays for the Niners so we’ll never know.
4) Justin Medlock - He made one field goal last season.
5) Whoever Miami’s kicker is - He’s Miami’s kicker.

My apologies for being so brief and I can assure you this site will not typically operate this way. The frequency and depth of the posts will be something in between today and the rest of the week. Also, who the hell wants to read paragraphs about the fantasy outlook for kickers?

Back Monday with something other than a list.

With quarterbacks, rankings of these nature tend to be a lot more straightforward. Everyone, including someone as dissenting as myself, can agree to a certain extent, where each quarterback will rank amongst his peers. Not only that, but there are no more than thirty-five of them that anyone is going to draft and the variation will be diminished by default. So for other positions, when we did five to avoid, it was relative to where you would have to draft them. For quarterbacks, it is more along the lines of these guys will ruin your week should they start for you.

1) Vince Young
Do not believe that he is going to bounce back from a dismal second season. He might come through in the clutch and make big plays in big moments, and they may even go to the playoffs. But drafting him for those reasons is like seeing a Judd Apatow movie for the Oscar potential. We did elude to the Titans having an improved offense with the acquisition of Alge Crumpler when hyping LenDale White, but we suspect the improvement will be minimal, though enough that the running game can carry them even further. They still have no noteworthy receivers and the offense will still be primarily on the run.

2) Alex Smith
Stubby fingers McGee has yet to live up to his #1 overall pick hype, and even with the improvement that will come with Mike Martz play calling, we aren’t expecting Smith’s production to be proportionally improved. Basically, if he were a receiver and caught for the amount of yards he is going to pass for this season, he would be a dead lock for the pro bowl.

3) Marc Bulger
Just like with his top receiver and partner in the backfield Steven Jackson, we expect Marc Bulger to produce about the same type of season that he did last year. Long story short, Bulger was cut in our league about halfway through the season. 11 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and under 3,000 yards, albeit that was only in 12 games, but that would only increase his interception total to twenty.

4) JaMarcus Russell
He’s in pretty much the same boat that Matt Ryan is, only with more contention within the team. Sorry Oakland fans, but Russell is a player who built his reputation off one bowl game against Notre Dame (probably one of the worst defenses to ever play in a bowl game) and your front office bought the hype. If you are in a position where you have dug yourself into a hole and are looking for a starter; and think that maybe, just maybe, JaMarcus Russell can make this offense respectable, please reconsider.

If we are comparing former SEC quarterbacks, he is no Jason Campbell.

5) Aaron Rodgers
For obvious reasons. We actually thought he would be effective and assimilate to the system he has been studying for three years quite smoothly. But his predecessor who refused to be his mentor has done everything he can to prevent a smooth transition. We are actively rooting for him, but think he is almost damaged now. Green Bay is basically the hospital in One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest at this point, he wasn’t crazy until they sent him there.

Rounding out the top ten, most of these probably don’t need mentioning, but we will anyways:

6) Any QB for the Arizona Cardinals: The receivers are moody, the running backs are pedestrian, Leinhart and Warner’s positions are tenuous. It’s a poor mans Rodgers-Favre situation.
7) Either Buffalo quarterback: See #6.
Jeff Garcia: Damn near forty and adversely effected by Brett Favre melodrama. Plus his best receiver is the same age he is.
9) Either Chicago quarterback: Unless your league is relegated to NFC North players, it shouldn’t be hard to avoid Grossman or Orton.
10) Tavaris Jackson: Probably the worst starting quarterback with job security in the history of the NFL. I’m harsh but fair.

Cover tight ends, defenses and maybe kickers tomorrow.

If you are looking to stockpile receivers and running backs like many fantasy football players are wont to do, you may be looking at a shaky quarterback in the later rounds of the draft. Here are the five you don’t want to sit on if you miss out on one of the top nine.

1) David Garrard
With new receivers in Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter, David Garrard might actually have some playmakers who this team has desperately needed. Garrard finally beat out Leftwich for the starting quarterback role, and looks to capitalize on the responsibility by improving on last year’s efficient performance. By efficient, I mean he only had eighteen touchdowns, but those are much more valuable next to only three interceptions.

2) Jay Cutler
Coming off an up-and-down first season assuming the starting position, Cutler could be poised for a breakout year. His numbers were about what you would expect: twenty touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3,500 passing yards; just good enough for a serviceable quarterback. Generally this is when you see a quarterback make the leap from serviceable to effective, we are actually optimistic that will happen. The same can’t be said for all Colorado natives.

This is just where South Park and Talking Fantasy Football will have to disagree.

3) Matt Schaub
With a healthy receiving core headed by Andre Johnson and a year of experience under his belt (he was all but a rookie last season), Schaub has the potential and the weapons to make up for that surplus of running backs you took. All that said, Andre Johnson’s health really is the key. Of the nine touchdown passes Schaub threw, eight were to Johnson. And that was in nine games. We recommend Schaub, but only with a healthy Andre Johnson to open up the field.

4) Eli Manning
There is an offset chance some Giants nut in your league overdrafts the younger Manning by about a mile, if that is the case then just look at it as one more available receiver or running back available to you later. If not, Eli will give you a steady performance week in, week out (though there are exceptions). If Plaxico figures out what planet he resides on, there is a good chance he applies the experience he got from the Superbowl run.

5) Jake Delhomme
I’d probably only draft him as a backup because you have no idea how he will come back from his season ending injury last year. But if you are in dire straits, the potential here is high as he comes back into an improved offensive line, a real running back, and his second favorite career target back in Muhsin Muhammad to accompany a healthy Steve Smith.

Rounding out the ten best value picks:
6) Donovan McNabb: You may run into the same problem drafting McNabb late as you will have with Eli Manning, but shrug it off and take comfort in the fact that Kevin Curtis will be sidelined for awhile.
7) Philip Rivers: Should improve, might not. If you draft a quarterback in the first eight rounds you won’t have to worry about it.
Jon Kitna: Exactly how many more years does Detroit hope to get out of his averageness? Anyhow, throws for a lot of yards, which should help offset his interceptions.
9) Brady Quinn: If you drafted Derek Anderson, you better be prepared to use a bench spot on Quinn.
10) Matt Ryan: Will obviously stumble along the way, but at least you don’t know what you’re getting. Unless you are in a league that consists of multiple Bostonians or Georgians, he should be available.

Five to avoid in a couple.

Since we are starting so late and since there are only thirty-two starting quarterbacks in the NFL (though over 60 made starts last season, but is anyone considering drafting more than maybe four of the backups in the league?), we are going to limit our profile on them to three posts: this one, value picks & the quarterbacks to avoid.

1) Tom Brady
Just like with Randy Moss, you set the single season record for touchdowns at your position, you are the default number one fantasy option the following year. Particularly for Brady, since his cumulative of TD’s was 50. 50! He won’t be able to repeat that (if he does they are probably going undefeated again in the regular season), but this is the safest pick in the draft, much less at just quarterback.

He's kind of a douchebag, if you can stomach having him on your team then you'll be all the better for it.

2) Drew Brees
I guess I am supposed to put Peyton Manning here by default, but with his nagging injuries I’m inclined to drop him a little (don’t worry Manning apologists, it won’t be too far). Brees plays in a weaker division (and conference), has more weapons at his disposal (Including a brand new tight end, , and had a stronger second half of the season last year. Amidst all this evidence, we’re inclined to put Brees in the two slot.

3) Tony Romo
Fantasy football isn’t a measure of wins and losses but of individual statistics. At the moment, Romo has a top three receiver, a top five tight end, a great running game and a history of putting up big numbers in the regular season. Last year he had five more throwing touchdowns and threw for more yards than Manning. He even ran two into the end zone. With again, the uncertainty of his injury and the fact he plays in the AFC south, we have Romo here at three.

4) Peyton Manning
Hey, he’s still Peyton Manning. Despite my utter, irrational contempt for the guy, I can’t deny the results. Should he stay healthy, he’ll have another pro bowl season at a bare minimum.

5) Ben Roethlisberger
I know the popular sentiment for the five hole is Carson Palmer, but he has limited himself to the right side of the field since his knee injury. Roethlisberger has arguably better receivers, two better tight ends and a better running game (keeping opposing defenses honest). With their defense taking a step back this season, going for 28+ ppg will be an attainable goal for the offense.

Rounding out the top nine:
6) Matt Hasselbeck: As reliable as anyone, just don’t count on them to win two games in the playoffs.
7) Derek Anderson: Was much higher until the pre-season game against the Giants.
Carson Palmer: Puts up lofty numbers against weak teams, drops the ball against contenders. His picture should under the definition of “Inconsistent” in the dictionary.
9) Brett Favre: This might be too low, but its like walking into a drug deal with him this year: anything could happen.

Five value picks later today.

Just like with receivers, this isn’t necessarily the five worst running backs in the league. But rather, five backs that you want to avoid drafting where everyone says you should. If you can get them later then expected then by all means…but don’t draft someone with question marks all around him just because it is common consensus to do so.

1) Steven Jackson
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. we want no part of this Rams team. He’s still holding out, if he shows up at camp this second it will be too late for him to be prepared for the season, the offensive line is depleted, the quarterback is a mixed bag, and he was pretty unimpressive when healthy last season. Hey, we had him two seasons ago and he paid dividends, so we know what he is capable of at his peak. It’s just, of former Oregon State players, we have a lot more confidence in Chad Johnson than we have in Steven Jackson, and you all know what we think of Chad Johnson.

2) Frank Gore
How does Yahoo still have him ranked as the 8th overall fantasy player? Ask any fantasy player who had him last season if they were satisfied with his performance. He went for just over 1,500 total yards, but only had six touchdowns and was the generally a top five pick. The earliest we can justify taking him is round four, maybe late third if we haven’t taken a running back.

3) Willie Parker
Rushed for over 1,300 yards last season, with a paltry two touchdowns. In other words, he had 2/3 as many touchdowns as he did fumbles. My guess is Willie Parker is the guy who stockpiles women’s phone numbers in bars but never calls any of them. If those stats seem respectable enough to you to warrant a second round pick, remember that they drafter Rashard Mendenhall, so the production should only decline.

4) Larry Johnson
Banged up for a good part of last season, has two ready and willing backups with Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles, has already gotten his signing bonus and has a ridiculous amount of mileage on him after only five seasons. Needless to say, we’d rather roll the dice with a Denver running back in the seventh round then draft someone we suspect is washed up.

5) Willis McGahee
We’re not supremely confident that he will let you down if you use one of your first two picks on him, but we have virtually no faith Bawlmer’s capacity for moving the ball down field. With him battling nagging injuries and a capable backup and no surefire quarterback, he could end up sitting out a couple more games than you would like out of a first or second rounder.

Five more shaky choices:
6) Jamal Lewis: a return to last season’s performance would be nothing short of a miracle.
7) Edgerrin James: Still no threatening backup, but we his production continues to underwhelm.
Thomas Jones: Having Brett Favre could open up the run game, but he is 30 years old and we’re not sure if he will capitalize.
9) Rudi Johnson: The only reason he is not higher is that we don’t know if anyone is really considering drafting him that high.
10) DeAngelo Williams: Not exactly highly touted, but he isn’t even worth a late rounder.

Back tomorrow with quarterbacks, obviously will be formatted a tad differently than the past two days.

Pretty much the same principal as receiver, in that these rankings are for players who won’t break the cusp of third or even fourth tier guys, but will be a great acquisition in later rounds either because they are underrated, or they may see a few carries and potentially more if a teammate sustains and injury(something we don’t really rely on with receivers).

1) Kenny Watson
There is about a 95% chance that he usurps Rudi Johnson as the starter this season. I mean, he kind of already did, but this is the running back equivalent of the Harrison-Wayne “who’s the better receiver?” conundrum in Indy. If you can grab hold of Watson in the 8th round or better, we recommend doing so. Just be wary of Chris Perry, who might start to resemble an NFL running back this season after four seasons years in obscurity.

2) Chester Taylor
Mind you, before Adrian Peterson came to town and broke off over 1,300 yards, Chester Taylor went for over 1,200 the year before. With Peterson healthy, Taylor can only hope to see an absolute max of 35% or so of the carries. But to have him on the bench and use him during bye weeks is enough incentive to draft him in the 9th or 10th round, if Peterson happens to fall victim to injury (like some of us are inexplicably certain will happen), you have another compotent starter on your roster.

Probably the best Pro to come out of Toledo, and he's backing up the best running back to come out of Oklahoma. For shame.

3) Kevin Smith
This guy was an absolute stud for Central Florida last year, and we think he has the potential to be the same with the Lions. Not widely known, but since the Lions seem to hate all their running backs, look to pick up Smith earlier than expected. Right now he is listed as their starter.

4) Felix Jones
Another rookie. While everyone trips over themselves trying to draft Marion Barber, sit back and wait to take his backup, who should see ample playing time that will only increase as the season continues. That may come sooner than later as he has looked phenomenal in the pre-season (if that counts for anything).

5) Matt Forte/Kevin Jones
We have no idea who the starting quarterback or running back will be for this team, but both of these guys should be around late in the draft that you can make a desperate attempt to acquire them if you prioritized receivers and quarterbacks. Who knows, maybe Kyle Orton will lead them to the promise land?

Rounding out the top ten value picks:

6) Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith: Does anyone have any faith in Larry Johnson’s longevity in the NFL? If not, then it may be wise to pick up one of these two. It’s kind of a cop out to list both backups, but with all this running back by committee bullshit, its the best we can offer.
7) Ray Rice: A beast at Rutgers (something we never thought we would say), with Willis McGahee already listed as questionable on ESPN, look for Rice to get some significant PT.
Brandon Jackson: Think Ryan Grant won’t be able to handle a 16 week workload? or will choke under the pressure with no Favre to rely on? This is his replacement.
9) Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward: Assign a player to each side, flip the coin, and see which one comes up.
10) Whichever Denver running back you think is willing to murder his teammates to ensure at least 60% of the carries.

Five to avoid later today, if not in the next hour and a half then expect them later tonight.

This is kind of an odd category to define, but for the sake of consistency we are going to use the same definition we did for receivers: Someone who could exceed the expectations of the masses and produce a pro bowl season. So ere goes…

1) Julius Jones
Just like everyone else we thought Marion Barber was the better of the two in Dallas. But with him going to Seattle and there tendency to throw to the running back, and him being their sole playmaking running back (with all due respect to Mack Strong), in addition to them dumping a bunch of money into Jones, we like his chances to produce some decent numbers this season.

2) LenDale White
For all the discussion about his weight coming into the NFL, he put up some fairly impressive numbers last year. If Tennessee can move the ball downfield a little more efficiently this season (which I think they will with Crumpler), giving White more short yardage touchdown opportunities, we might see a pro bowl season for the USC alum. Just keep him away from the barbeque or whatever it is they eat in Memphis.

3) Jonathan Stewart
We are not sure how much of a sleeper Stewart can really be considered. DeAngelo Williams will split carries with from the start, but Williams will prove to be unable to compensate for his size. Stewart is the perfect combination of size and speed, and we imagine he will be getting the majority of the carries by week five. Hopefully he can develop some sort of pop culture persona or write a book or something, so he can go on Daily Show and the world as we know it will cease to exist.

Can you even tell the two Jon Stewart's apart?

4) Rashard Mendenhall
We were going to do a separate post for rookies, but as evidenced by Jonathan Stewart, today is going to be virtually impossible without including them. We have serious concern about Willie Parker’s ability to rebound. With the Steelers drafting a running back in the first round, it would appear I’m not alone. That first round pick absolutely decimated the Big Ten last year, and he is an absolute hass that they need for short yardage. They should split carries fairly evenly in the first place, if Parker goes down with some sort of injury, a 1,000+ yard season isn’t out of the question.

5) Michael Turner
He would have made top ten if it wasn’t for the fact that he plays for the Falcons. For years, everyone has drafted him prematurely in hopes that Tomlinson would get injured and they could capitalize on it with another top-tier running back. Now in Atlanta, no one seems to optimistic about his chances to succeed to the point we contemplated putting him on the value picks list.. We expect Atlanta to improve this season in every aspect of the game, and a part of that is the running game.

Rest of the ten sleepers:

6) Ronnie Brown: A lot of uncertainty about Brown, but with the season he was in the midst of producing last year, we like him in the third or fourth (where we got him in both our drafts).
7) Reggie Bush: Most of his production might come from receiving, but he still lines up at running back.
Earnest Graham: Can someone who broke 200 fantasy points be regarded as a sleeper? In a draft this deep with running backs: absolutely.
9) Chris Brown/Steve Slaton: Whoever starts for Houston should put up some numbers.
10) Almost any backup for a starter who is sidelined early (there are about twenty of them).