Fantasy Football

While there is an excess of serviceable to good running backs, there is a shortage of great ones. Going into the 2008 season the top five running backs seems pretty straight forward, and has been covered by about a couple hundred thousand other online sites, so this post is somewhat redundant. But, maybe you’ll be taken aback by my witticisms and prose…I’m just kidding, this is going to be like everything else you’ve ever read.

1) LaDanian Tomlinson
Like virtually every other NFL team, I don’t have any particular like or dislike for the Chargers. But good lord am I sick of hearing about this guy. And it pains me to rank him as the top running back. What are you going to do, though? When you factor in all the attributes one looks for in a fantasy running back (performance, consistency & health), he is the best culmination of the three. Whatever decline he experienced last season was…well, it was considerable. But his production was still good enough to lead the league in rushing.

Did anyone see the 60 Minutes profile on him? They wouldn’t let the cameras videotape most of his training program. Probably because he does steroids, but either way its like the fucking Manhattan Project. I’m like that as well, but I prefer my seclusion when I’m eating donuts. I only eat them alone. In the dark. And if anyone calls me while I’m digging into a baker’s dozen, I pick up the phone and scream, “You’re interrupting my quiet time!”

That, my friends, is a pro.

2) Brian Westbrook
He has the reputation of being injury prone, but outside of one season three years ago it is mostly a myth (though we won’t lie, yahoo constantly having him listed as questionable in2007 was quite nerve-racking). He has missed one game in each of the past two seasons, about as good as you can expect from any running back in the physically unforgiving NFL. Also, Westbrook is something of an anomaly in the NFL these days: much like Tomlinson, he sees probably 80% of the carries for his team (and also like Tomlinson, contends for leading receiver coming out of the backfield).

3) Adrian Peterson
We know by week six his body will be mangled like something out of Planet Terror, but we can’t help it. The potential on this guy is like nothing we’ve ever seen before. When watching highlights or talking about the day that was in the NFL or whatever, I just want to be able to say, “he’s on my fantasy team” about Peterson. I am unabashedly smitten with AP as a fantasy football prospect. I just wish he would return some of my letters. Also, we’ll be over drafting Chester Taylor this season.

4) Joseph Addai
As reliable (maybe even more so) as Tomlinson, but he’s like the anti-Peterson. In other words, he is the conservative pick. He’ll probably get you twenty points a week and its about a 95% chance that he stays healthy, but he’ll never get you forty. We mentioned the acquisition of Rhodes, but if he is getting more than 15% of the carries by week five we’d be surprised. Anyhow, why his production will be steady, we kind of expect the Colts to slip a bit this season, and we have no idea how his stats will be effected.

Ooh, wow. Look at him go for fifteen touchdowns in just his sophomore season. Did he break the single game rushing record in his rookie season?...Didn't think so.

5) Laurence Maroney
With the deadly passing game and the improvement he showed towards the end of last season and in the playoffs (the passing game carried the team for the first 12 weeks while he got healthy), we like his chances for a breakout season. Also, we like him splitting time with LaMont Jordan & Kevin Faulk, as he should see a considerable majority of the carries. I hope. Assuming I have him on my team. Otherwise we are fully on the Kyle Eckel bandwagon.

Rest of the top ten:
6) Marion Barber: We need no more justification than this clip.
7) Maurice Jones Drew: Runs, catches and returns…a true multi-tasker.
Ryan Grant: Only for the beastly line, impressive numbers last season and absence of competitive second running back. We are a little worried about the morale in Green Bay right now.
9) Brandon Jacobs: Seems to be healthy though we are worried about it. Also worried about? The plethora of running backs lined up behind him.
10) Marshawn Lynch: Fairly uninspiring and we are not much more confident in him than we are in the next ten guys, but we need to fill this spot.

Today will follow the same format as yesterday with the receivers. Stay tuned.

We have all over-drafted a player a year too late, a year too early, under the wrong circumstances and sometimes we were just lacking the appropriate information. These are five players to avoid drafting unless you can get them at a cheap price. For instance, one of the people on this list is Chad Johnson. Now, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take him in the fifth round if he is available, but relative to where he is likely going to be drafted, there will always be much better, reliable options, at the receiver position or elsewhere.

1) Greg Jennings
Obviously the change at quarterback factors into this, but we also feel that as good as Jennings was last year, he might reclaim his backseat to Donald Driver this season. With a new quarterback like Rodgers, he is going to feel much more comfortable throwing to a set receiver like Driver than throwing over the top to a player like Jennings. Earliest to draft him: 5th round.

2) Anquan Boldin
Obviously a remarkable talent, produces in every way imaginable. But between the contract disputes that he seems to be developing Shawn Kemp levels of insecurity over, and uncertainty at quarterback (as in, who to start and if either of them will be sufficient), we are reluctant to take him anywhere before the fifth round.

3) Chad Johnson
Let’s see, he’s unstable, pissed at the front office and possibly his coach, demanding, dissatisfied and constantly fighting nagging injuries. While he is still a remarkable talent, it hurts his game that Palmer never seems to throw to the left side of the field since his knee injury and when Chad Johnson isn’t happy, no one is. Offenses with firepower that we are scared to death of taking most of their players from (though there are exceptions) are the Cardinals, Bengals & Rams. Earliest we could take him: 4th round. Speaking of which…

Unless your league scores for creative end zone celebrations, its best to steer clear of Ocho Cinco in the first few rounds.

4) Torry Holt
Simply put, we want nothing to do with this Rams team. Given, Bulger and everyone around him could rebound back to their once vaunted status, and Holt could benefit from that, but we are skeptical. They do benefit from playing in that downy soft NFC West division, but that isn’t enough incentive to draft such a commodity in one of the first three rounds, of which he is sure to go. Early fifth is as high as we can imagine going for Holt.

5) Lee Evans
It seems like a popular sentiment to proclaim this the year Lee Evans earns his keep, the problem is we can’t figure out why. The Bills still have the same uncertainty at quarterback, the running game is still marginal, and he still plays in frigid fucking Buffalo (so you know the passing game will be reigned in for those home December games). The only difference we’re aware of is the addition of James Hardy. Whom we like above all other rookie receivers, but hardly think he’s going to be deterring the defense away from Mr. Evans. Not right away, at least. Honestly, seventh, maybe sixth round is the best we could do for him.

6-10:
6) Reggie Brown: After watching the Eagles hang their hopes on him for the past two seasons, and watching him fall short in every critical moment, we don’t want him in the 100th round.
7) Any Seahawk receiver: Can anyone tell me who the primary target is on this team? Is it Deon Branch? Nate Burleson? The numbers from last season would tell you it is Bobby Engram, but does a repeat performance in 2008 seem likely?
Any Oakland receiver: Spearheaded by Ronald Curry. It makes you wonder why they didn’t draft Calvin Johnson over the assured bust that is JaMarcus Russell, considering it was the same year that they traded Moss to New England for a can of sardines.
9) Marvin Harrison: Between his health, off-the-field problems, growing irrelevance and the uncertainty around Manning’s injury, there is more reason to stay away from him than OJ at this point.
10) Roy Williams: He might go lower than you’d expect based on his pitiful 2007 season, but be very wary of him. He had five touchdowns last season and I believe four of them were in the first three weeks of the season. Buy low, and very low at that.

We are looking forward to this post blowing up in our face. Tune in for our running back rankings tomorrow.

While the difference between this and sleepers might seem negligible, and it admittedly probably is, but while sleepers are considered those who could reach the upper-echelon of receivers, this is ranking players who can be productive though drafted in lower rounds.

1) Jabbar Gaffney
With Dante Stallworth now toiling away in Cleveland, Gaffney should step up and assume the third wide receiver spot. If there is anything that hurts Moss’ fantasy value, it’s that Brady and Bellicheck couldn’t care less about who is catching passes. This benefits Gaffney, who came on strong for the Pats in the second half of last season. This kid can play, it is just a matter of him getting touches.

2) Muhsin Muhammad
“Chicago is where receivers go to die” is Muhsin’s way of summarizing his experience with the Bears. Now feeling adequately compensated from his dismal three seasons in Chicago, Muhammad has journeyed back to where he made his name. Do not expect him to return to his 2004 numbers, but expect an improvement from his awful stint in Chicago.

They look pretty lively here. Though its probably the NFL equivalent of reaching the front of the bread line.

3) Bryant Johnson
There is a decent chance someone over-drafts him in your league, if that is the case then shrug it off. But Bryant Johnson, finally out of the shadows of Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona, now has a fresh start with the 49ers. The problem with that of course, is that it is with the 49ers, an offense that has looked consistently inept since drafting the ill-advised Alex Smith in 2005.

4) Chris Henry
Guess who’s back? As of today, the Bengals have invited Chris Henry, the immensely troubled wide receiver out of West Virginia (how have him and Pacman never been arrested together?), back to the team. It could coincide with Housh and Chad Johnson having mental (only applies to Johnson)/physical health problems, either way, if your league isn’t based out of Ohio, there is a good chance this news will elude most of your draft. Sure, he is suspended for the first four games, but sitting him on your bench when there are no bye weeks isn’t that much of a sacrifice for a guy who can play.

5) Shaun McDonald
This all comes down to how much faith you have in Roy Williams to act like a human being. At the moment we’re wavering. He’s not like Ricky Williams, he seems to definitively enjoy playing football, but he seems disinterested in taking it even remotely seriously. I can appreciate that, but it makes this Lions receiving core a fucking mystery in fantasy football. McDonald had a stellar year in 2007, we have no idea how the stellar Mike Furrey, scatterbrained Roy Williams and emerging Calvin Johnson will effect his status, which means he has a lot of potential and little profile, definitely good for a safe late round pick.

Rounding out the top ten:
6) Anthony Gonzalez: He actually benefits if Harrison and Wayne are healthy and productive.
7) Robert Meachem: He would be higher on this list if not for Shockey coming to town and Devry Henderson standing in front of him.
Devin Hester: No Bernard Berrian or Mushin Muhammad in Chi-town anymore, much like Bryant Johnson (and to an even greater extent), someone is almost guaranteed to overdraft him. If Kyle Orton’s arm can keep up with him we’ll be surprised, though.
9) Patrick Crayton: Someone other than Witten and Owens has to catch the ball.
10) Troy Williamson: Blazing speed with a reliable quarterback that could turn a few heads in Jacksonville.

List of five to avoid a little later.

When you call someone a sleeper, it can be a very subjective term. So for the sake of this post, we will narrow it down to this: Someone who can exceed the expectations of the masses and turn into a pro-bowler. In other words, they could break the ceiling and emerge into the top ten of this list when all is said and done. Someone like, say, Plaxico Burress doesn’t qualify, because you know what you are getting from him, and he’s not going to exceed expectations because even if he has a career season, its only going to be marginally better than what he’s done in the past.

1) Jerricho Cotchery
To summarize, in Cotchery’s tinier with the Jets, they have never had a quarterback who could throw the ball accurately down field. Now with Brett Favre lining up behind center, not only do they have a quarterback who can do so accurately, he will unabashedly do so inaccurately as well. His stats were fairly impressive last year with noodle-armed Pennington and in-over-his-head Clemens, so expect him to improve on that two touchdown total from 2007.

2) Santonio Holmes
Last year’s numbers were a mixed bag, with a great ypc average, but not very many catches. And with the acquisition of Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, the Steelers might be the same old story on offense: A surplus of short gains and a periodic big play down field. But with a defense that will probably take a couple steps back, an (arguably) top five quarterback, a balanced attack on offense and a player with Holmes’ speed, we could see him being their new Plaxico Burress this season.

3) Calvin Johnson
Does he overtake Roy Williams as the primary target? If last season was any indication, Williams is obviously disinterested with football or hoping to force a trade through incredibly uninspired play (Shaun McDonald outscored him on his own team). Johnson, however, is a workhorse. And all reports lead to him being the emerging star of this uneven offense. If Kitna can still be as mediocre as he’s always been, we might see a top five statistical year out of him.

How is he not on steroids?

4) Dwayne Bowe
If you consider how inept this offense was, Bowe’s rookie numbers were staggeringly impressive. We have a hard time seeing him crack that top ten, but with another year to develop some chemistry with seemingly doomed for failure quarterback Brodie Croyle, he could see an enormous increase in stats from his debut season. If nothing else, Kansas City has an embarrassingly low number of options.

5) Reggie Williams
Between Matt Jones turning into Jenny from Forrest Gump, Fred Taylor aging and David Gerrard being free of distraction from a five year long quarterback controversy, we wouldn’t be surprised if Williams finally turned into the NFL receiver we thought he would be while at the University of Washington. He did have ten touchdowns last year, but has to be more effective in between the twenties to make himself a top tier player.

Rest of the top ten:
6) Roddy White: Had a good season last year, and with a quarterback that has the confidence of the organization behind him, White could have a breakout season. We expect pretty much the same production, though.
7) Kevin Curtis: Will McNabb be healthy? Will the offense demonstrate a semblance of cohesion? If the answer is yes to both, Curtis could be the prime benefactor.
Joey Galloway: This guy will turn thirty-seven during this season, but what are Tampa’s other options. If he stays healthy, he could impress some people. We’re skeptical any of these things will happen.
9) Derrick Mason: We have no idea who the quarterback is going to be for the Ravens, but lets just say we like his chances much more with Troy Smith as the starter.
10) Chris Chambers: We have not one iota of insight into the Chargers mentality on the offensive side of the ball. But after a half season with Rivers and everyone else, expect Chambers to feel more at home with this incredibly talented unit. You can throw Vincent Jackson in here as well.

Again, if you are not noticing a lot of symmetry with this list, it is because it isn’t based on past performance, but rather who has a chance of cracking the top ten in overall production. These aren’t necessarily the ten guys not already in our top ten that have the best chance of ending up there, but top ten that you may not expect too. See, its not at all convoluted.

Given that many people have either had or will have their fantasy drafts in the upcoming couple weeks, we are going to spend the rest of this week doing player rankings. Today we’ll do three top five lists all revolving around receivers. This post is dedicated to the five best, then we’ll post the top five sleepers, top five value picks, and finish it with five to stay away from. It isn’t terribly original, but we got on this blog too late to exhibit any originality this close to the start of the season.

1) Randy Moss
Speaking of a profound lack of originality, Randy Moss is our selection for the best fantasy receiver in football. It’s unoriginal for a reason though: If you break the single season record for touchdown receptions, short of having an arrow shot through your knee before the season starts, you’ll be considered the best option at your position going into the draft.

2) Braylon Edwards
This might be a little presumptuous, but we like the 16 touchdowns he posted last year, we think the addition of Donte Stallworth should actually open things up for both of them, and we can’t think of any reason this offense would regress. It all depends on how scarred he was from that blog forum on Costas Now.

3) Terrell Owens
He seems to be the consensus #2 this year in fantasy, but he drops far too many passes and with the absence of a proven second receiver on the Cowboys, we could see him slipping a little this season. On the other hand, and It’s only training camp, but he looks remarkably poised and motivated on Hard Knocks. We have one rule of thumb, when you cry on a national stage in humiliating fashion, you have to redeem yourself in some way in the following calendar year. Owens looks prime to do so on the football field.

4) Steve Smith
He would be at #2 if it weren’t for the two game suspension that was handed down after he broke his teammates face for no reason at all, that probably trumps Gus Ferotte’s self-induced concussion from a few years ago in terms of football meathead-ery. Short temper and all, we think he is prime for a big comeback year assuming Delhomme can stay healthy and is similar to his old self. Remember, when Moss was wasting away in Oakland and Owens was…doing whatever Owens was doing his second season in Philly, Smith was unequivocally the best receiver in fantasy football.

Mr. Smith may have picked the wrong line of work.

5) Reggie Wayne
With and aging Marvin Harrison now living a publicly lawless lifestyle (Come on, he doesn’t celebrate in the end zone, he has to be a stand up guy!), Reggie Wayne makes his official ascension into the number one slot on this team. It has been speculated about for years, and it will finally happen this season (You could argue that this happened last season, but it would have been by default with Harrison out for the majority of the season). Still, with Manning’s health a potential issue, Wayne’s stats could see a tremendous decline.

Just for the hell of it, the rest of the top ten:
6) Houshmandzadeh: Still better than Chad Johnson, though frail like Yao Ming.
7) Marques Colston: Would be in top five if not for acquisition of Shockey and rise of second year receiver Robert Meachem (more on both of them later).
Wes Welker: Stone cold reliable, and with Stallworth in Cleveland, Brady will be forced to dump to him out of a lack of options more often.
9) Andre Johnson: Would be higher if it weren’t for his seemingly never-ending strand of injuries. Would be higher if we had any faith in him playing all sixteen weeks.
10) Larry Fitzgerald: Probably the opposite of Welker in terms of reliability, but has a Reggie Wayne like ceiling.

You may recall that last year there was a shortage of healthy, reliable running backs. We could experience something similar in 2008 with wide receivers, making it all the more imperative to snag one of the top ten receivers available. Keep that in mind if you have an option between any of these guys and Edgerrin James and Willie Parker.

For our first substantive post, I would like to talk about the perils of the first overall draft pick. This is generally regarded as something to be envied, but generally those people either lose every season they play in, or have never played fantasy football altogether. Your seasoned fantasy football participant knows it is far better to have the last pick instead of the first in the opening round of your draft.

(Mind you, all posts on this site will be circumstantial. Meaning, the settings of your draft might make this advice useless. The first overall pick isn’t that detrimental if you are in an eight team league. I’m not sure if those even exist anymore given the immense popularity of fantasy football these days. But if you happen to be in one, then bully for you. Now go draft your pro-bowler laden team and don’t worry about anything, because your entire league will be determined by your over-saturated waiver wire pool).

Back to the post.

Certainly it can have its advantages. I mean, you get the closest thing you can to a lock, and that player — barring injury — generally finishes within the top ten in overall scoring, regardless of how your league is formatted. What goes unmentioned is what happens after that pick. In short, the talent pool is depleted before you are back on the clock. You go from getting what is (generally) the most coveted player in the league that may or may not get injured to someone who isn’t all that much better than a fourth round pick. Meanwhile, if you are picking between 4-12 (assuming that is the size of your league), you walk away with two barn burners.

It is particularly difficult in a season like this one. For a number one overall selection, every single player has question marks around him. Whether its Adrian Peterson and his split time with Chester Taylor and constant injury problems dating back to his sophomore season at Oklahoma, or LaDanian Tomlinson and his depreciation last season, or Joseph Addai and Indy’s reacquisition of Dominick Rhodes, etc. Everyone has some glimmer of doubt with this pick and no one is really standing out amongst the first six or seven candidates on anyone’s rankings. The worst part of it is: for the sake of your season, it is absolutely critical you get this right. Because if this pick turns out to under-perform or is sidelined for whatever reason, there’s about a 95% chance your season is cooked.

It's hard to look past this man's potential.

I was faced with this very dilemma in a public draft earlier this season. I have never had the first overall pick in any fantasy draft prior to this random ordering. To me, the question was a no-brainer: Tom Brady. For starters, I resent the “Always draft a running back first” mantra that is so prevalent for these things (that’s another post, but it is especially true this year). He isn’t a health liability, he’s a workhorse, still has a great receiving core and is motivated. Do I expect him to throw fifty touchdowns or whatever again? Of course not. But if he manages to get 30 or more with a limited number of picks? Then I’ll feel vindicated.

But did I like the team I ended up with as a result? Absolutely not. After taking Brady, I sat on my fat ass for the next twenty minutes waiting for every one to take the maximum amount of allotted time to pick, then ended up taking….(it’s almost embarrassing to say) Plaxico Burress. Ugh. Now, I could have arguably (and in hindsight) should have went with Steve Smith who was still available, despite the two games he is suspended for. But I like Burress’ breakout potential, quarterback, and surrounding teammates a lot more than I like Steve Smith’s. After that I went with Kellen Winslow, and I’m content with that pick with the first in the third round.

In short, I ended up with a stud quarterback, a borderline stud receiver and the best tight end in the league. My two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Julius Jones) are both health risks and I am left spinning in the wind trying to play catchup after that Tom Brady selection. Maybe I defied conventional wisdom too much by waiting for the last pick in the fourth round to take a running back, but there isn’t that many great receivers to go around and this is a twelve person league.

Contrast this in another twelve team league wherein I was drafting sixth overall, my first five picks were Brian Westbrook, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Derek Anderson & LenDale White (followed by Tony Gonzalez and Julius Jones in rounds six and seven). Needless to say, I am much more optimistic about the outcome with this team.

So while it is swell and all having Tom Brady on my team, it fucking blows not having Braylon Edwards or Brian Westbrook or Laurence Maroney to accompany him. My best advice? Should you be unfortunate enough to find yourself in this ridiculously unenviable position, trade the pick to the newbie in your league for better positioning. Then cry in shame as whoever you take in the first round ends up shattering his knee in week two.

Hi. my online alias is State School Elitist. We have written for 451 Press for the past two years over here, where you can read mindless and subjective drivel about various television series’ and industry news. We’ve decided to take this blog out of retirement for a myriad of reasons. Most notably the minimal amount of money to be made from writing here, but also the unhealthy obsession we’ve developed with fantasy football (and basketball) over the past two or three years.

One thing we want to make clear: This is not a news site. We will mention and post links to relevant injuries and updates, but if you are looking for an injury report or some other shit, we will not have anything beyond maybe a link to one on Friday. Sports news is such a force at this point that anyone can figure out if their players are injured through some means other than a random, obscure sports blog. And since more people use yahoo than any other site for their leagues, I know they offer status updates on your team page. So, if you want to know who’s in and who’s out on your fantasy team, then it is quite simple: go look at your fantasy team.

In terms of content, what we will offer is prognostications, suggestions, personal experiences, all hopefully injected with some humor. Because while fantasy football can be quite frustrating and we are at a point now where several of us take it a tad too seriously, there should be some levity to the whole thing. Mainly because it is entertainment at its core, and the bulk majority of us walk away from a season with nothing of substance to show for it. So, why grow embittered over the inevitable disappointment?

...And here's a visual interpretation of our brain in the second week of playoffs last season.

Also, we’ll try to stay on topic, but will occasionally veer towards college football and NFL non-fantasy news, but try to keep it to extent that it relates to fantasy football. Needless to say, I hope a post about how a rookie’s college performance should indicate his NFL expectations isn’t too much for one to bear.

Anyways, while the title of our inaugural post might seem a little melodramatic, it still gets the point across. We are reviving Talking Fantasy Football more than a year after some schlub left it in week 4 of the 2007 season. We promise to only add high quality content to this site, and hope to assist you through the trials and tribulations of your fantasy football draft and season.