Fantasy Football

When you take into consideration that this team is generally dismissed as a bottom-feeder, they’ve actually posted some pretty impressive records as of late. All you have to do is lower your expectations beyond any reasonable measure, and voila! They’re overachieving.

I kid the Texans, but only because I have high expectations for them. In theory, with the way they’ve drafted lately they should be a playoff contender. In reality, their division has been too competitive for them to overcome. If they played in the AFC or NFC west, they probably would have made the playoffs a couple times in the past five years. But alas, they’re forced to compete for the playoffs against the second best team this decade along with the Jags and Titans, both of whom who’ve made the playoffs a combined six times in the past seven years (that’s a lot of wild card births).

So what’s the outlook in Houston heading into 2009? As per usual, it is hopeful. The Texans have a young, promising defense spearheaded by 2006 first round draft picks Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and 2007 first round pick Amobi Okoye. Never the less, it has been a continual issue for them, as they seem to improve every year can never perform on a consistent basis. Some of that has to do with coaching changes, some with inexperience and a lot to do with glaring weakness on the defensive side.

But really, since the Texans inception in 2002, their biggest issue has been the quarterback position. In 2003 they thought they’d have a franchise player in David Carr. If you’re under the age of fifteen you probably don’t know who that is, so needless to say it didn’t pan out (not that it mattered, the other option was Joey Harrington and he never came to form either). When they finally realized they had to move on in between 2006 and 2007 seasons, they executed a mini-blockbuster trade for at the time Mike Vick’s backup and assumed valued asset, Matt Schaub.

Again, it seemed like the right move at the time (they gave up two second rounders and traded first round picks with the Falcons) because they needed a quarterback and outside of the offensive line, seemed serviceable everywhere else on the field. Not to mention he beat out fellow ACC alum and fourth overall pick Phillip Rivers twice for QB of the year in college. But two seasons later and Houston has been indecisive and impatient with Schaub, as he and Rosenfels have almost split the past 32 games evenly (18-14 in favor of Schaub) to a 16-16 record (8-8 both seasons).

Though they are two games over .500 with Schaub and two under with Rosenfels is besides the point. This team’s primary issue has been resolving their ongoing quarterback issue. With Rosenfels off for purpler arena pastures in Minneapolis, hopefully Schaub can turn into the player everyone once thought he’d be coming out of Atlanta.

Or perhaps everyone read too much into a few impressive pre-season games.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton. Their passing game might struggle but between Rosenfels and Schaub, the Texans completed 367 passes in 2008. 245 of them (about 67%) went to Daniels, Walter and Johnson. Now, Johnson should be a late first, early second round pick, the other two you can probably get at value. Owen Daniels is the justification why everyone holds out on drafting a tight end.

One thing I will never understand is how devalued a running back’s performance in college will be in regards to his pro prospects. I know they’re interchangeable, but why anyone would think Slaton wouldn’t be worthy of such a later pick than Jonathan Stewart, Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice would all warrant higher picks is beyond me. I mean, does anyone in the NFL watch college football? Not that any of the aforementioned names are bad picks per say, in fact the 2008 rookie class of running backs kind of ushered in the notion of the running back position being an affordable one, but Slaton had a better college career than all of these guys and was drafted after all of them.

Tread Lightly: Matt Schaub. A great season for a quarterback requires a lot more consistency and poise than it does for a running back or receiver, and I’m just not sure Schaub has it in him at this point. For instance, while those three receiving targets combined for 245 receptions only 18 of them were for touchdowns (3/2 was his 2008 ratio), and not all of them were from Schaub. Barring injury, he shouldn’t have to worry about splitting starts with Dan “safety hazard” Orlovsky, but I wouldn’t over-value anything Matt Schaub has to offer, regardless of his teammates numbers.

Dark Horses: If, however, Schaub does get his shit together, you might want to look out for Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis to have serviceable seasons, maybe use one of them on a bye week here and there. Also, Chris Brown might spell Steve Slaton here and there, and is basically their sole option at running back should Slaton sustain some sort of injury. If the last two seasons have taught me anything, you can always count on injuries to running backs.

I’m just going to admit I have no idea where to put the defense. They have potential, but they have for the past two seasons. They’re not really a dark horse in that I can’t envision them being any better than those ranked in front of them. And I can’t advise against picking them where they’re ranked since everyone has them under-valued (but not considerably). We’ll just say that they’ll be a suitable backup for your bye week or a starter against an inferior offense.

Anyhow, we like the Texans from a fantasy perspective and think they can make a playoff push this year. But most of their prospects are out of their hands since their ceiling is only so high. Basically, they need some teams to fail to meet expectations (Ravens, Titans, Dolphins, Bills) and for no one else to exceed theirs. I have a feeling 9-7 can get you a wild card, that is well within Houston’s reach.

Tomorrow: the woefully disappointing and misplaced Jacksonville Jaguars.