Fantasy Football

As mentioned yesterday, this team has had a stranglehold on one of the more competitive divisions over the past decade, and just when it looked like the bottom was about to collapse beneath them, Peyton Manning willed this team to a 12-4 record and a wild card spot in the playoffs (where they were immediately upset by an 8-8 Chargers team, as per usual except for one season).

In a season with no real standout performances, it turned out to be an MVP season for the future hall-of-fame inductee, despite it not being his best by a long shot. Some expect this team to rebound — as absurd as it is to be expected to rebound from 12-4 — and return to their usual dominant style. I, for one, expect the exact opposite: for them to continue sliding into the abyss.

Not that their going .500 or anywhere near it. I could see a scenario where they’re 10-6 or 11-5. Though I never thought much of Tony Dungy as a coach, I think the new regime might even be an improvement, so that might stop the hemoraging that’s bound to start as Manning gets older, but you can already see it starting. For starters, no more Marvin Harrison, who was getting long in the tooth himself. What’s even more befuddling is they didn’t bother to seek out a replacement in free agency or the draft. I suppose they thought since they got by without him last year than can do the same this year.

He's not taking this lightly.

So Gonzalez will take his place and Wayne becomes the go-to-guy. That’s more than serviceable. I mean, it’s probably still a top 15 receiving corps in the league (definitely behind the Patriots, Cardinals, Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Bills, Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, Saints, Texans); but that’s a stark contrast to their usual top five status from the past seven years or so. It’s going to be detrimental to the team, and more specifically the offense, as a whole.

Can’t Miss (for what one can reasonably expect): While I think they’re going to slide a bit more this season, you’re still not going wrong with Manning or Wayne. Both are aging but not old and both have been too dominant for too long to anticipate a significant drop off in a season’s time.

Tread Lightly: I say this only because of their first round draft pick, but I wouldn’t be too anxious to draft Joseph Addai. For that matter, I wouldn’t be over-reaching for Mike Hart or Donald Brown either. It’s too unpredictable. Why would they draft a running back and not a receiver in the first round. Or better yet, why not draft a much needed defensive player? This team’s success has hinged on Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney for the past five years, I think it’s time to diversify on that side of the ball. Speaking of which, don’t draft the Colts defense either.

Dark Horses: I’ve done a terrible job of defining these three categories, so I’ll try to do it to suit this pick: it’s all relative to where the player is expected to be drafted. So if a player is a projected 8th round pick and I think he warrants fourth round attention, I put him in the “dark horses” category. If he’s a second round projection and I don’t like him before the fifth, I put him in the “tread lightly” section. If he’s appropriately ranked by your average fantasy rankings, he gets a “can’t miss” placement.

That said, I really like Dallas Clark in 2009. Sure, he’s considered a top…6 tight end (Winslow, Gates, Gonzalez, Cooley and Witten are all considered better options), but most wouldn’t think of drafting him until the eighth or ninth round, so you can still get him in the sixth or seventh and get better, if not superior production compared to the other options at those spots. Just look at his totals from last season in 15 games: 77 receptions for 848 yards and six touchdowns. Not to mention Marvin Harrison played in some of those games. If you facotr in his absence combined with Clark getting that 16th game in, I think you’re looking at close to 1,000 yards receiving, roughly 10 TD’s and close to 100 receptions.

Other than Clark the only guy who might exceed his perceived value here is Gonzalez, but I’m so worried about his height and above-average but not lightning quick speed being too much adversity. So I wouldn’t be putting him too far ahead of where everyone else has him.

That’s the Colts in a nutshell. Still a lot of fantasy value, not much defense and potentially the beginning of the end of an era (if that didn’t already happen last season). I’ve never been a Colts fan so I welcome the potential failure, this seems to be an unpopular opinion, but whether it is or isn’t; try not to let it effect your fantasy season. I might be overcompensating but there is legitimate reason to expect a break from the norm.

Tomorrow: the perennially 8-8 Houston Texans.