Fantasy Football

My apologies for bringing this to you about six hours later than we had hoped for, but you skip town for a few days and all hell breaks loose. Anyways, it shouldn’t be a problem, just read it tomorrow morning if you’re busy now. Christ, what do you people want from me?

I can’t recall the last time that the champion of the AFC South wasn’t the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m willing to guess that it was probably when Tennessee made the Super Bowl and came up one infamous yard short of putting it into overtime against a heavily favored St. Louis Rams team. This probably says more about the other two teams in the division than it does about Indianapolis or Tennessee (even though Jacksonville is regularly in the playoffs), especially the team at large here.

The Titans are meticulously coached and for being such a small market, they’re regularly competitive, but they tend to have a longer curve than most. Look at their regular season win totals dating back to 2002: 11, 12, 5, 4, 8, 10, 13. That’s 63 total wins in seven seasons, which comes out to exactly nine wins a season. Just above the cusp of .500.

But obviously there were some growing pains from the end of the McNair heyday to however you would identify the team now. This is to be expected with any NFL franchise when their quarterback starts to decline. You think the Colts and Patriots aren’t going to fall out of contention when Manning and Brady’s stars start to fade? Please.

Looks like I'll have to go elsewhere for my fat jokes.

I guess that’s my issue with the Titans and why I’m skeptical of their prospects this season: they have no identity. Sure, we know them as a tough-minded, hard-hitting defensive team, but where’s their offense coming from? No receivers (I wouldn’t have terribly high expectations for a rookie out of Rutgers, but thar’s just me), presumably dismal options at quarterback (though we’re not completely sold that Vince Young is hopeless), a great running back in Chris Johnson and a sufficient one in LenDale White (who’s supposedly shedding weight). At a certain point you’re going to find the defense a more reliable scoring option than the offense.

But how long can they rely solely on the running game while also having the worst passing game in the conference? My guess is the clock is ticking and they’re much closer to a 4-12 season than they are a 13-3. This does not bode well for fantasy. The NFL is a “rains it pours” league. Things seldom happen gradually, like they do in baseball or basketball, it’s a house of cards. And for a team like Tennessee, when it crumbles, it takes awhile to rebuild. My guess is they start working Young into the offense this season, because for not only this season but in the immediate future, they don’t really have any other current options.

Can’t Miss (for what one can reasonably expect): Chris Johnson, LenDale White, defense. It is worth taking under advisement that both Johnson and White over-extended themselves last season, and that the front offices lack of motivation to find any additional pieces is quite likely going to end up hurting both of them. But you know that Johnson is still going to be the team’s primary weapon and that White is going to reap the benefits of Johnson’s grunt work in between the tens.

Tread Lightly: I think it goes without saying that Justin Gage, Kerry Collins and Alge Crumpler are not exactly considered ideal fantasy prospects. If you’re league is so deep that these people have to be drafted, then all I can say is I hope you stay healthy.

Dark Horses: None. Well, they’re real long shots in Vince Young and Chris Henry, but I’m pretty sure you don’t have to draft either of them, just keep your head on a swivel on Sunday afternoons for when Collins, White or Johnson go down in a heap of mush and broken bones, because it’s almost certain to happen. That backfield was way too healthy all last season.

Tennessee is still a loaded roster that poses an amiable threat to any opponent. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a team won a Super Bowl based solely on a great all-time defense and an above average running game (2000 Ravens, 2003 Buccaneers most recently). But that passing game is going to inadvertently hurting both of those units. I know they were sufficient last season and you might be thinking “why couldn’t they just replicate what they did in 2008?” The phrase borrowed time comes to mind, hopefully it won’t end up getting the better of them.