Fantasy Football

You know it’s a bad sign for the franchise when you go from 10-6 and missing the playoffs on a technicality in 2007, to finishing below the Bengals in 2008. That means, as it tends to with any given season in the AFC North, last in the division. The Browns aren’t without hope, and it was absolutely critical that they replaced their coach, but this team still seems a few pieces short, especially since they keep trading them away.

This is obviously a team in a rebuilding process. New coach, new quarterback and still no credibility on defense. Frankly, it’s kind of amazing a team is even capable of being this unimpressive on one side of the ball for so long, given the parity in the league. Even the Cardinals have gotten their shit together in this era, why the Browns and Lions can’t do the same is beyond me. That’s right, Browns fans. I just put you in the same boat with the Lions, it’s nothing personal. I just hate you for making Cleveland so fucking miserable to be in.

But we have potential, despite what the makeup of the team and inner-front office turmoil would lead you to believe. A young, upstart quarterback in Brady Quinn. No one in the front office seems to like him, but they’re still giving him his shot. Eric Mangini was an odd choice, considering they just had an Bill Belichick disciple who was actually the coordinator opposite of Crennel in New England, but he didn’t deserve to be fired in New York and seems perfectly capable of head coaching an NFL team. Of course, he did force all his rookies to assist him at some camp, more or less against their will (maybe that’s why he continued to trade down in the draft?).

There all egomaniacs, but is he a destructive one?

And that is the issue with the Browns: you can applaud every move they make but there’s always some caveat to why you should denounce it from a logistical or strategic standpoint. They have a good young QB, but no one in the front office likes him; Eric Mangini is potentially a great coach, but just not for this team; they made the right move by continually trading down, then drafted for positions they don’t necessarily need; Edwards is one of the five most talented receivers in the league, but he drops more passes than any of his counterparts. And on and on it goes. Still, they have some fantasy bulk on this team that is worth strong consideration.

Can’t Miss (for what one can reasonably expect): Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis are definitely worth consideration. The one good thing the Browns did was use their first pick at center to beef up an already respectable offensive line. I don’t want to overvalue this decision, but running backs are so reliant on their blocking so their not always taking it on the chin. Maybe they can break outside or put a little force into the collision themselves. And Edwards was just too impressive in 2007 to not be worthwhile. Certainly his value has dropped quite a bit, but if you’re drafting him before the fourth or fifth round anyways, then you’re an idiot and there’s no helping you.

Tread Lightly: They don’t really have any over-valued players that I stear clear of. If anyone it would be Edwards, but I think he’s prime for a rebound. Last year it wasn’t that he wasn’t getting open, its that he would drop two passes a game, usually one of them on a key play. If that isn’t still afflicting him you’re getting a top ten fantasy receiver at great value. So yeah, not Edwards or anyone else is someone to have much trepidation about. Unless you need me to repeat my disdain for the defense.

Dark Horses: This is pretty much the Cleveland Browns, a dark horse in every sense of the term. I like Steve Heiden having a breakout year in the absence of Kellen Winslow, they have two rookie receivers they took in the second and third round with Brian Robiskie out of Ohio State and Mohamed Massaquoi out of Georgia to help pick up where Stallworth and Jurevicius left off. James Harrison is an under-used asset who will see more carries out of necessity rather than out of option (as much as I like Lewis as a late pick for your starting lineup, he is starting to age). And Brady Quinn, of course, belongs in this category. You probably won’t have to draft him but there are enough weapons on this offense that if he’s going to be a successful pro quarterback, it’s going to show this season.

I imagine this team is going to go about 6-10 this season, but it won’t be on part of their offense (though its by no means going to be perfect). The defense will be the main culprit for their next disappointing season. Hopefully Mangini and the front office can keep their shit together long enough so that they can build with this core group of players.

We’re off to Chicago but we’ll be back on Monday to start our profile of the AFC South.

I really have no idea what to make of this team. My initial instinct is to assume they’re going to be terrible, and history has proven that this in all likelihood this is a safe assumption. But then you hear people like John Clayton claiming that they should be a playoff contender this season, and then you remember that even though Carson Palmer is a shell of what he used to be, he’s also a tangible improvement over Ryan Fitzpatrick. So which way do we lean?

With each passing year, this mascot looks less and less intimidating.

Obviously this is all contingent on the team staying free, but I have a difficult time believing it. For starters, lets look at what they did in the off-season. They drafted a talented yet head case offensive lineman out of Alabama in Andre Smith, whom apparently has a difficult time with states initials. Smith has potential but certainly isn’t a sure thing, mostly because he’s emblematic of all the off-the-field issues the Bengals have dealt with and often overlooked. Needless to say, it isn’t exactly a winning formula. The second round they took Ray Malaluga out of USC, and that is arguably the best value pick in the draft.

As far as players we can count on making an impact, I’d give them a solid B- (not exactly setting the world on fire but there’s a lot of hope wrapped up in these two). In free agency they kind of took it on the chin losing TJ Houshmenzadeh, who decided playing under the overcast skies in a weaker division back home was better than playing under the overcast skies in Ohio. Jury’s still out

The Bengals, on top of being shortsighted and poorly managed, have caught a number of bad breaks. There was the neck injury to first round pick David Pollack that ended his career, Rudi Johnson falling into irrelevancy and most importantly, Carson Palmer busting his knee to shit and sitting out two full seasons in the past four years. It’s hard to blame the Bengals for any of this, but at the same time they’ve wasted a number of picks and made numerous front office moves in the interest of making a buck as opposed to actually winning (note: these things aren’t always mutually exclusive).

It’s tough to say what their game plan will be as the offensive line is depleted. I imagine since they haven’t made much of an effort to acquire any new running backs (Benson, Perry, Watson is the current pecking order according to ESPN), the passing game is going to be the primary weapon. But obviously the offensive line is still integral for that to work, and you just traded your best receiver (Housh) and replaced him with my dead grandfather’s brother (Laveranues Coles). I, for one, would brace myself for another disappointing season if I’m a Bengals fan, and thankfully I’m not.

Can’t Miss (or for what one can reasonably expect): As skeptical as I am that Coles can in any way hold a candle to Houshmenzadeh, the Bengals are going to air it out this season because they lack any other options. And since he is there second receiver, you can probably get good value out of him, most likely in the early teens. Carson Palmer is probably a suitable starter, but if you can get him as a backup in the 8th or 9th and use him as trade bait if he produces, that would be the ideal play. And last but not least, if he can afford another strike on his record, I think Henry is the most viable weapon they have right now. Again, he should be around later than he has any business being.

Tread Lightly: Do not, under any rationale, draft this defense. Same goes for the running backs, the tight end and whoever else isn’t a receiver or Carson Palmer. We’d be pretty bearish on Chad Johnson as well, since he’s going to be rated higher than anyone else at wide out on this team and I don’t see him producing much more than Henry or Coles.

Dark Horses: There really aren’t any. I can’t recommend any running backs because it’s a complete fucking toss-up who they’re going to play and why. Maybe they want to prove Perry was worth that first round pick, maybe they think Benson can improve the streak he was on at the end of 2008, maybe they want to keep miles off both of them and play Kenny Watson. Basically, all your dark horses are in the “can’t miss” section of this post, and that’s never a good sign.

At least you’re not the Browns, Cincy fans; you’ve actually been to a couple Super Bowls. Just don’t expect to revisit one anytime soon. On the bright side you still have a couple viable fantasy players to over-draft so you can pretend to still give a shit about this team, on the downside, you’re not going to be a playoff contender until well after those players are gone, as your team’s issues seem to be systemic, and seem to extend beyond whatever personnel that system is working with.

Tomorrow: The one and only Cleveland Browns. Ugh, we might wait until Monday so as we’re not driving to Chicago in tears.

They stole the Super Bowl.

Haha, good one, Browns fans. Because they’re called the Steelers, I get it. You guys are priceless. If it wasn’t for the insecurity of Browns fans, I don’t think I’d ever recognize what a superbly ran organization the Pittsburgh Steelers are while living in Ohio. So I guess I owe you one, Cleveland.

Take glee, Cleveland, in the fact that the quarterback of your rival settles for Pittsburgh women.

Really, I shouldn’t pile on. People talk about how lopsided the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry (used) to be (it still is, just in the opposite direction now). But the Yankees, for all their bravado, have some stints of futility in their past and before 2004 I believe the Red Sox at least went to a few World Series’ since their last win in 1918 or whenever it was (my apologies, I don’t really give a shit).

But with the Browns and Steelers, the disparity could only be greater if Cleveland swapped places with the Lions. Pittsburgh has won more Super Bowls than any other franchise (6) and are prime to continue dominating the division, the Browns were a no show coming off their first promising season since the 80’s (2007) and are staring down the barrel of another season of hopelessness and defeat.

I could go on and on about the glaring success ratio between these two franchises in the Super Bowl era, but really it’s because the Steelers are that good, more so than the Browns are that bad. However, that’s coming from a real world perspective, the Browns arguably have a better crop of fantasy players, and it’s for a couple reasons: 1) Pittsburgh rarely has two dominant seasons in a row but they rarely have a losing one, but they usually follow up a playoff season with something just north or south of .500. Let’s look at their record for the last seven years:

2002: 10-5-1, win wild card game and lose in divisional round.
2003: 6-10, miss playoffs
2004: 15-1, lose in conference title game to veteran savvy Patriots.
2005: 11-5, won the Super Bowl as a wild card by winning a couple of the flukier playoff games in NFL history by beating an over-confident Colts team in the divisional round and a to this day pissed off about the officiating Seahawks team in the Super Bowl.
2006: 8-8, miss playoffs
2007: 10-6, lose in the first round to Jacksonville
2008: 12-4, win Super Bowl against a 9-7 Cardinals team that caught fire at the right time.

Never mind, he doesn't.

And 2) They’ve won more Super Bowls than any other franchise, but the two I’ve seen them win they’ve been beneficiaries of circumstance. Mostly the other team choked or their were a plethora of injuries that weakened their primary opponents for those titles. If you look at the aforementioned list, 2008 saw Indianapolis teeter along until they finally had to play a legit team in a late blooming Chargers squad, a New England team that lost the best player in the league in week 1 and a Chargers team that lost the best defensive player in the league and never really came together.

That was their chief competition last year. Oh, and a Titans team that lost Albert Haynesworth for the playoffs and had Kerry Collins at quarterback. In 2005 they were a six seed, played an always overrated but more so than usual because everyone was telling them how great they were Colts team, and the second best offense in the Bengals, whose pro-bowl quarterback went down with a career-altering knee injury on the first offensive snap of the game.

All I’m saying is this team is by no means a sure thing for fantasy or league purposes. They’re erratic offensively and tend to rely on the defense a little too much. I’d put more confidence in the Patriots offense, and their catalyst is coming off of season ending leg surgery.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): All that said, they’ve only played under Mike Tomlin for the past two seasons and they are considerably more prone to the passing game under him than they were under Cowher. Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, probably still Willie Parker and (it goes without saying) the defense are suitable fantasy starters from the Steelers. Just consult your local draft board to know where to take them at.

Tread Lightly: I’ve always liked Heath Miller. In fact I still do. In terms of raw talent I think he’s second only to Kellen Winslow, and even then he lacks the component that makes one a fucking headache in the locker room. But Tomlin simply does not like to regularly incorporate his tight end in the passing game. If there are other positions that you feel take priority then fine, put Miller in as your starter and call it a day. But if you can at all help it, do not be fooled by his flash.

Dark Horses: Rashard Mendenhall. He had some problems holding onto the football, but with tiny and quickly aging (like all NFL running backs) Willie Parker, I still have confidence in Mendenhall’s pro-prospects. Limas Sweed is another could be fantasy steal that I like, but to a significantly lesser extent. In fact, if he’s productive on a consistent basis, it probably won’t be until at least the  middle of the season. You should definitely hold off on drafting him, but either Sweed or Dallas Baker are going to be regular contributors on this offense.

So there you have it. The Steelers instill confidence and trepidation all at the same time. This is partly due to their playing style and partly to their players. None of them other than Parker have ever shown any regular fantasy prowess. They have a lot of budding stars, but no top 30 picks. In a parity driven league that makes for a Super Bowl contender, but like everything else involving the NFL, it’s nothing more than a crapshoot.

Back tomorrow with an overview of perennial fantasy wasteland: The Baltimore Ravens.

Rounding out the AFC East is the Buffalo Bills, the lone small market team in the NFL’s two eastern divisions, and there lack of appeal to free agents and coach’s is demonstrated in their record. On top of being the only small market in the eastern divisions, they double as the only of the eight to endure a losing record in 2008. 7-9, it’s not like they were a laughing stock, but they are definitely out-matched amongst their peers. That said, the Bills are hopeful heading into 2009. I happen to disagree, but we’ll get to that later.

Obviously one precursor to this new found hope is the arrival of Terrell Owens. This is an odd free agency pickup for a couple reasons. For starters, Owens isn’t exactly a rust belt kind of guy, and that’s what the Bills thrive on. There is almost no question that he’ll resent playing there. Secondly, Buffalo doesn’t really need a receiver, particularly not one as problematic as Owens can be. But simultaneously it makes sense, both parties are in a state of desperation. Buffalo needs to make money and show their fans they’re serious about contending, after a promising 5-1 start, Buffalo finished the last eleven weeks 2-8. And TO needs Buffalo since, honestly, no one else wants him.

Maybe she'll end up visiting Buffalo as a result of all this?

Buffalo should have really reconsidered as well. Right now the only news that having Owens on their team is garnering pertains to The Superstars, and some would argue quite reasonably that this is just the beginning of the sideshow. We’ve all seen the spectacle that is the Eagles, the Niners and — to a much lesser extent — the Cowboys, why the Bills think they’re immune or foolish enough to hope that he’s grown out of it, is unknown to me.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Marshawn Lynch has all the makings of a fantasy stud (high draft, pick, reasonable offensive line, improving passing game & one of the last few backs who isn’t giving up a significant percentage of carries to a teammate), but he’s been unreliable for a solid two seasons now. Some would attribute that to a lackluster passing game and bringing Owens should open up some running lanes. Third round or lower, there are better prospects on better teams for at least 25 picks. Also a primary beneficiary of Owens’ arrival: Lee Evans. He’s been moved to second option but with his expectations diminished he’ll probably finally live up to them. Congrats, Lee.

Tread Lightly: Trent Edwards. He just hasn’t showed any promise, and I don’t know why they weren’t in the Cutler sweepstakes more than they were. Lee Evans and Josh Reed are serviceable, and a damn site better than what Cutler had in Denver. If I’m not mistaken they took themselves out of the bidding because of all the rumors circulating that he was a headcase, but yet they brought in Terrell Owens. I have no idea either. He has some weapons around him, but then again he’s always had weapons at his disposal. With two brand new offensive lineman, I could see it being a slow start, if not an entirely disappointing season.

Dark Horses: The defense should be strong and a potential starter on your fantasy team and a perfectly reasonable backup. I know I have a tendency to worry about how a defense can be hampered by a bad offense, but Buffalo seems to know there limitations (as evidenced and countered by the Owens signing). Fred Jackson, who’s a solid backup that the team seemed to grow in confidence with as the season went along, brings a lot to the table. Since he’s a second string running back, it could very well be worth your while to use a late, late round pick on him.

Anyways, as for Terrell himself, who is noticeably absent because he doesn’t fit any of these three molds, his personality combined with his age and seemingly diminishing star all make TO something of a leper in today’s NFL. Most aren’t as eccentric, old or talented, and our categorizing isn’t all that comprehensive so we didn’t really think to prepare for him. But we will say that if Owens is on your radar, be aware that in addition to all of the aforementioned reasons, they also lost their best offensive lineman (Jason Peters) to Philly in a trade and that Edwards is by far and away the worst quarterback he has ever played with professionally. Something to keep in mind is all.

Tomorrow we start our preview of the AFC North and the returning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

This division probably had the most story-laden season in 2008, and the Jets are no exception. After a strong 8-3 start, they collapsed much in the same fashion that the Dolphins regathered, losing four of the next five and completely missing the playoffs by a mile (with today’s NFL standards). Somehow the Jets managed to pin this all on Eric Mangini, who seems to have an unusual coaching style, but knows how to coach a winning franchise.

Nothing like being the beneficiary of circumstance. This guy's like Tommy Carcetti. Google it.

This, of course, was the fault of Brett Favre, whose managed to turn into the Steve Francis of the NFL. For the uninitiated, that means he’s a coach killer. So Mangini gets fired, Favre retires to make a spectacle out of trying to garner the interest of the Vikings and the team trades up to draft a top five QB and we get someone named Rex Ryan as a head coach. In short, it’s a total fucking mystery what their offense is going to look like. I would suggest you look at their offensive productivity for 2007, the year before they had Favre, give the offensive line two more years of improvement, take away Laverneus Coles and replace Kellen Clemens with Marc Sanchez, a rookie quarterback out of USC who couldn’t beat out John David Booty for the starting position, and he’s a third string backup for the worst QB team in the league.

Can’t Miss (for what one could reasonably expect): Well, there aren’t many of these that the Jets roster is sporting. It’s going to revolve around a unqualified or rookie quarterback, a pedestrian receiving corps, a serviceable running game and a loaded offensive line. Thomas Jones is probably the closest you’re going to get to a sure thing on this team, and even he is going to share a number of carries with Leon Washington and rookie third round draft pick Shonn Greene, who we’ve praised before and we feel is likely to get at least a small share of carries throughout the season.

Tread Lightly: Every receiver that plays a down for this team. You can probably get Jerricho Cotchery at good value, but with the options he has throwing to him, do you really want to take that chance before the season starts? Same goes for Chansi Stuckey, who was hot and cold for every single game last season, and more often than not he reflected the latter.

Dark Horses: Dustin Keller is probably the most popular fit for this category, but I like Shonn Grenne, as I have my doubts about Jones’ body holding up for two full straight seasons and Leon Washington’s capacity as an every down back. Keller is certainly a definitive prospect, but I’d make sure I draft another tight end before I put too much stock into him coming off a season wherein he was playing with a Favre, a quarterback known for his penchant for throwing to tight ends (Mark Chumura, Bubba Franks, Donald Lee, etc.).

Even this defense, which is pretty star-studded can’t be relied on. How many turnovers are they going to have to suffer from the offense? What style of offense can we expect Ryan to run? I’m sure it will emphasize moving the ball on the ground, but will the passing game be sufficient enough to keep opposing defenses honest?

In short, there are just too many question marks on this team that all stem from their quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez might be the next John Elway, but I imagine even the most optimistic and loyal Trojan and Jets fans have their reservations. My advice — for this entire roster, really –
is to under-shoot everyone by about two rounds, and if any of them are still available try to get them at value. But if they’re taken earlier than they should be, just regard it as a more valuable asset staying on the board for one more pick.

The New England Patriots are unique in that no matter how many years they go without winning a Super Bowl, they’re always the favorite going into the season. And deservedly so. The best player (Brady) combined with the best coach (Belichick, despite what South Park may see) and the best front office (assuming Pioli wasn’t responsible for everything), tends to make a successful franchise, and with the exception of the San Antonio Spurs, no one has been more successful the past decade than the Pats in all of professional sports (spare me, Red Wings fans).

With this caliber of succcess tends to come a plethora of fantasy options, even though their offense hasn’t been all that blistering in their three Super Bowls, but that all changed with the acquisition of Randy Moss, who attracts a double team on every play and still produces as much as any receiver in the league. People have been expressing their doubts about the Patriots in 2009, given the age and recent injury issues they’ve endured, but should they remain healthy, there’s no reason they won’t produce just like they did in 2007.

Any excuse I can find.

Can’t Miss (for what one would reasonably expect): Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker. All three of these guys, in no particular order, are almost invaluable. You could draft all three of them and be competitive. Brady should get his touchdowns with two pro-bowl receivers and both receivers are still the primary targets for the best quarterback in the league. We have no idea what the recovery process will be like for Brady, but it seems more likely that there isn’t one than if he never comes back to full-form. Obviously this entire operation hinges on his well-being, if he isn’t in good health than everyone else is rendered mediocre. But we’re confident the wheels aren’t coming loose just yet.

Tread Lightly: Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor. The first is injury prone, the second is aging and the third is over the hill. If Maroney stays healthy then he should prove to be a valuable prospect, and Faulk has some absolutely monster games in his absence last season, but we get the impression that carries are going to be pretty evenly spread, and none of them are going to be consistent fantasy performers. It would seem that the Patriots have taken to the Shannahan mode of running back play, and that’s not good for any of us. I’d also be weary of Joey Galloway, who’s going to be in the Dante Stallworth 2007 role, and while it looks and sounds promising, it’s good for one breakout play every three games.

Dark Horses: Benjamin Watson. If they’re as pass happy as they were two years ago, then Watson is always a viable option. If not, then he turns into another utility player, and they have at least four or five of those at skill positions.

All told, the real breakout performer for fantasy football from this team might be the defense. If they’re able to stifle opposing offenses like they were during the Super Bowl years, Belichick may not feel compelled to force the issue on offense, which means a lot of running out the clock and a lot of sitting with a comfortable but not record-breaking lead. You know they still want redemption for the 2008 Super Bowl against the Giants, that is the optimum goal here. And whenever a team this talented is going to be this hungry, I like them as a mainstay fantasy destination in my draft.

For tomorrow: The New York Jets

Instead of doing this randomly, we decided to list these according to the final standings in our local newspaper. The AFC East is at the top, and Miami squeaked out the division with a Big East like schedule, so we’re starting with the overly celebrated Dolphins, who now call Land Shark Lager stadium home.

For those who seek an alternative to Corona.

The 2008 Dolphins, as you are probably well aware if you’re reading this site, are responsible for the biggest single season turn around in NFL history, going from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and AFC divisional champs in 2008. Say what you will about their schedule (like I just did) or their luck (Brady going out in week 1, the Jets unforeseen collapse), a ten game turnaround in a sixteen game season is remarkable. The problem is, however, that they did this without any central focus on the offensive end. With the exception of Ronnie Brown, every player was interchangeable from a statistical output.

Whether it was Greg Camarillo or Ted Ginn or Ricky Williams or anyone else, the Dolphins opted for schematics in lieu of star power (a common and intelligent trend right now in the NFL). The bad news is their fantasy options are limited, even Ronnie Brown went for a biscuit over 900 and ten touchdowns, far from a top twenty pick. The good news is they provide a lot of options for a ten person league in bye-weeks. If you can manage it, drafting all your players with differing off-weeks from the Dolphins (or at least enough so that Miami’s players can spell you) and pick up a couple of these henchmen they’ve accumulated, it’s as good as you can plan on doing.

Can’t Miss (for what one can realistically expect): Ronnie Brown. Injuries have taken him out of his prime earlier than he should have been, but between Ricky Williams and the wildcat formation, Brown has as much mid-round potential as anyone, and the likelihood he is re-injured is slim. I also like Ted Ginn, though I’d recommend taking him after you’ve already filled all your starter spots. Unless Pennington gets a Popeye arm when he eats spinach, it’s still not strong enough to keep up with Ginn. Also, the defense. Bill Parcells will always assemble a competent defense, and their projected status of 12-15 overall in the league is more than appropriate.

Tread Lightly: Like we said, expectations are fairly low for pretty much everyone on this team. But I’d recommend staying away from Pennington, Williams & Bess. Pennington, for all his second in MVP voting hype, is really nothing more than a backup QB on a fantasy team, and even then you can find better. Williams, sorry to say, is something of a has been, and his productivity is only going to fall from last year to 2009. He’ll have a couple good games that might entice you to acquire him off free agency should he be available, but don’t rush him into a starter spot, if Brown is healthy he’s bound to disappoint. If you actually know who Davone Bess is and want to know why you shouldn’t draft him, let me know and I’ll offer an explanation.

Dark Horses: Anthony Fasano and Greg Camarillo. Fasano is a perfectly suitable tight end and could have a surprising, Owen Daniels-like season if he can garner some attention from the powers that be. Camarillo was showing flashes of brilliance last night until he went out for the season in week twelve and missed five games. In 10.5 games he had 55 catches and two touchdowns, almost tailor-made for backup status.

That pretty much covers everyone except for the rookies, and the best you’re getting from this draft class is Patrick Turner, a wide receiver out of USC who I would guess won’t be any better than Camarillo or Ginn, and probably on par with Bess if he gets the playing time. The highest you can take Brown is probably the fourth round, anything after that is fine. Everyone else on this team, because the construct of the team, has warning flags pouring out of their ass.

Tomorrow: the New England Patriots