Fantasy Football

For our first substantive post, I would like to talk about the perils of the first overall draft pick. This is generally regarded as something to be envied, but generally those people either lose every season they play in, or have never played fantasy football altogether. Your seasoned fantasy football participant knows it is far better to have the last pick instead of the first in the opening round of your draft.

(Mind you, all posts on this site will be circumstantial. Meaning, the settings of your draft might make this advice useless. The first overall pick isn’t that detrimental if you are in an eight team league. I’m not sure if those even exist anymore given the immense popularity of fantasy football these days. But if you happen to be in one, then bully for you. Now go draft your pro-bowler laden team and don’t worry about anything, because your entire league will be determined by your over-saturated waiver wire pool).

Back to the post.

Certainly it can have its advantages. I mean, you get the closest thing you can to a lock, and that player — barring injury — generally finishes within the top ten in overall scoring, regardless of how your league is formatted. What goes unmentioned is what happens after that pick. In short, the talent pool is depleted before you are back on the clock. You go from getting what is (generally) the most coveted player in the league that may or may not get injured to someone who isn’t all that much better than a fourth round pick. Meanwhile, if you are picking between 4-12 (assuming that is the size of your league), you walk away with two barn burners.

It is particularly difficult in a season like this one. For a number one overall selection, every single player has question marks around him. Whether its Adrian Peterson and his split time with Chester Taylor and constant injury problems dating back to his sophomore season at Oklahoma, or LaDanian Tomlinson and his depreciation last season, or Joseph Addai and Indy’s reacquisition of Dominick Rhodes, etc. Everyone has some glimmer of doubt with this pick and no one is really standing out amongst the first six or seven candidates on anyone’s rankings. The worst part of it is: for the sake of your season, it is absolutely critical you get this right. Because if this pick turns out to under-perform or is sidelined for whatever reason, there’s about a 95% chance your season is cooked.

It's hard to look past this man's potential.

I was faced with this very dilemma in a public draft earlier this season. I have never had the first overall pick in any fantasy draft prior to this random ordering. To me, the question was a no-brainer: Tom Brady. For starters, I resent the “Always draft a running back first” mantra that is so prevalent for these things (that’s another post, but it is especially true this year). He isn’t a health liability, he’s a workhorse, still has a great receiving core and is motivated. Do I expect him to throw fifty touchdowns or whatever again? Of course not. But if he manages to get 30 or more with a limited number of picks? Then I’ll feel vindicated.

But did I like the team I ended up with as a result? Absolutely not. After taking Brady, I sat on my fat ass for the next twenty minutes waiting for every one to take the maximum amount of allotted time to pick, then ended up taking….(it’s almost embarrassing to say) Plaxico Burress. Ugh. Now, I could have arguably (and in hindsight) should have went with Steve Smith who was still available, despite the two games he is suspended for. But I like Burress’ breakout potential, quarterback, and surrounding teammates a lot more than I like Steve Smith’s. After that I went with Kellen Winslow, and I’m content with that pick with the first in the third round.

In short, I ended up with a stud quarterback, a borderline stud receiver and the best tight end in the league. My two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Julius Jones) are both health risks and I am left spinning in the wind trying to play catchup after that Tom Brady selection. Maybe I defied conventional wisdom too much by waiting for the last pick in the fourth round to take a running back, but there isn’t that many great receivers to go around and this is a twelve person league.

Contrast this in another twelve team league wherein I was drafting sixth overall, my first five picks were Brian Westbrook, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Derek Anderson & LenDale White (followed by Tony Gonzalez and Julius Jones in rounds six and seven). Needless to say, I am much more optimistic about the outcome with this team.

So while it is swell and all having Tom Brady on my team, it fucking blows not having Braylon Edwards or Brian Westbrook or Laurence Maroney to accompany him. My best advice? Should you be unfortunate enough to find yourself in this ridiculously unenviable position, trade the pick to the newbie in your league for better positioning. Then cry in shame as whoever you take in the first round ends up shattering his knee in week two.