Fantasy Football

So we held our fantasy draft for my league that I actually care about the results of, and uh, needless to say, I do not like the team I ended up with.

After scrambling to make sure my nitwit friends knew when our draft was and what the stipulations were despite telling each of them at least five times, I was rewarded with the last pick in the first round. And that is fine, we’ve said before we would rather have the last than the first, first round pick. But being too far one way or the other, with each couplet of picks you have to take into consideration how the rest of your entire league is going to draft each of their next two rounds, and that is virtually impossible.

Bottom line is, we are going to find something to bitch about regardless of where we are picking because fantasy sports seems to be the one facet of life that we are incapable of being reasonable about, and this was no exception.

This is basically what we turn into on draft day.

The team isn’t all bad, but I felt as if I was treading water the entire time and ended up taking players I might otherwise not want. No one wants to hear the intricate details of any fantasy football draft other than their own so I’ll keep this pithy: we were seduced by the temptress that is the yahoo rankings, which we often disagree with but assume the fellow teams in our fantasy leagues use as a template for how they draft. And they do, just to a limited extent we did not anticipate. If yahoo is a hooker in the brothel that is internet fantasy rankings, then she has VD, is forty-five years old, and on Sunday night we had a Jimmy McNulty like stupor going on.

Other notes, we went with Peyton Manning as our first round pick, he has fucked us in gambling before (both for and against…think Pittsburgh, playoffs 2005 as the most egregious example) and we know he will in fantasy as well. Braylon Edwards, Marques Colston and Maurice Jones-Drew as our first running back made up rounds 2-4 for us. Notable picks that may seem out of place (either too high or low) were Matt Hasselbeck in the 9th round (hopefully trade bait for a couple teams in my league), Kenny Watson in the 8th and Bobby Engram in the 12th.

We have little justification for how we drafted Colston so high and just as little explanation for getting Hasselbeck in the 9th, but that tends to be the nature of these things. You have one guy who overdrafts all his players, someone always ends up with an aging and injury prone roster, one team that looks loaded one and one that looks dreadful; and you just sort the chips as they come. Unfortunately for us, the one aspect of our team that we like relative to the rest of the league is our backup receivers (Vincent Jackson, Bobby Engram and Mushin Muhammad). That, I have to imagine, is not a good sign.

Some highlights from the draft were Philip Rivers going in the second round to a guy who was auto-picking clearly with his own rankings, because not even Yahoo can fuck things up that bad. Supposedly he is counting on a really, really big year from the NC State alum. Also, Eddie Royal being drafted in the 12th (at all is surprising, really; by the same guy who took Rivers), Boldin falling to the fifth and Derrick Mason to the 15th all kind of blew my hair back.

Here are our draft results if you want to ask us for further explanation. Despite our provocations in the last paragraph, we can talk incessantly about why we opted for each player we did. And if you look at how we ranked players a couple weeks ago, it is pretty true to form. But go ahead, tell us how mistaken and misguided we are.

As I understand it there are two different types of popularized salary cap leagues: One played with real money in which the market dictates each players value. And the other with fake money in which multiple teams can acquire one player, and that players stock either rises or falls with each passing week depending on performance. If the players stock rises, you can trade him out of his increased value or keep him on your roster.

If it wasn’t obvious from the intro, I joined a salary cap league with the latter. I would have been willing to do join a pay league, but it is through my Chiropractor with a bunch of strangers, so my input was expendable. (I am twenty-six and go to a chiropractor on a weekly basis while surrounded by geriatrics and whiplash victims. With any luck a picture of me will never make a public website, but you should be able to assume that I have a body of an eighty year-old man.)

But within the confines of the rules I am confined too, I like the change of pace. Basically, we all start out with $50,000,000 of fake money, we have to fill 12 roster spots (three receivers, three running backs, two quarterbacks, a defense, a tight end and a kicker) all of whom start and we have an unlimited number of transactions before the first week of the season. Meaning, if I bought one player then thought better of it, I can sell him and acquire someone else with the newfound available cap space.

Given the prices of the players, this is all a lot more difficult then it sounds. Basically, you want to buy low and sell high, or at least relative to how you think they will perform against their peers versus where they are priced at. For instance, I bought Ted Ginn for $2.15 million. If he pans out and becomes an elite receiver, his stock will rise potentially to that of a Chad Johnson who’s worth $5.25 million (I have no idea what the degree of fluctuation is like). I can then either stick with Ginn or trade him out for a better receiver or an upgrade at another position.

While a traditional fantasy league ironically is more akin to starting a business, the salary league is like solving a weekly puzzle. You are just trying to procure the best pieces to sufficiently complete it. You could, in theory, have the top twelve scorers every week if you play your hand right. This of course is highly unlikely; but is ultimately the goal. For the hell of it, here are the players I took for my twelve spots.

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees: $8.5 million
Matt Hasselbeck: $ 6.75 million

We went high on quarterbacks because we feel like out of the three major positions, the elite quarterbacks are more reliable than the elite players at running back or receiver. We still might swap out Hasselbeck for Matt Schaub ($5.35 million) and upgrade at wide out. You will see why in a minute.

Running Backs
Brian Westbrook: $9 million
Julius Jones: $5.52 million
Jonathan Stewart: $4.8 million

We bought pretty high with running backs to, and we expect this portion of our roster to have a much higher turnover rate than any other. But you have to have an arsenal of players and we feel like Jones and Stewart, while priced a little higher than we would like to see relative to their peers, we are still getting a bargain price for how their seasons will turnout. We were torn between Stewart and Mendenhall, but since Willie Parker will probably eat up a lot more early carries than DeAngelo Williams we went with the Oregon alum. Of course, we drafted Brandon Jackson in the seventh round last season, so it is best not to listen to us.

Receivers
Jerricho Cotchery: $5.25 million
Ted Ginn: $2.15 million
Bryant Johnson: $1.15 million

This is where it gets dicey. Because while I over-indulged at quarterback and running back (particularly quarterback), we looked for value at receiver. Cotchery will have a huge season that will land him in the top ten for receivers. We are certain of this. Ted Ginn is the top wideout and return man on a Miami Dolphins team that can only improve. It is with Bryant Johnson we feel like we are playing roulette because of how anemic the Niners offense has been since Jeff Garcia left town. Still, it’s only for a little over a fiftieth of our cap so it isn’t much of a gamble, plus we like that he will be starting with a new team with a new offensive coordinator (Mike Martz) and potentially a new quarterback in San Fran.

It's probably not a good sign that of the first twenty images on a Google image search for Ted Ginn, 14 of them he is in OSU garb.

Tight end: Jeremy Shockey, $3.3 million
We are mulling this one over still, but we initially bought Tony Gonzalez and sold him to upgrade at running back.

Defense: New York Jets, $2.35 million
This will probably change every week for us based on match ups. The Jets week one opponent? Miami. It kind of contradicts our Ted Ginn pick, but we’re alright with that.

Kicker: Mike Nugent, $1.2 million
Whatever. He has looked bad in the off-season but we expect him come around. This is also dependent on match-up but won’t change as much because it is blind luck.

After doing an overview we realized how monolithic our selection of players is. Essentially, if he isn’t on the Jets, Seahawks, Saints or our favorite team, or didn’t go to Ohio State, then his name is Bryant Johnson or Jonathan Stewart. This will probably hurt us, but it is for fun and experimental so we really don’t give a shit. We are still tinkering with this team and fully expect it to blow up in our face.

Back with something you might actually care about later.

Sorry for the incredibly late post. We have an explanation over here, but if you don’t want to click on the link, long story short is: we had to give a coworker a ride to the mechanic. If we didn’t have to do that, this would have been posted at least five hours ago. If it makes you feel any better, said coworker is now on our shit list.

But anyways, given the likelihood that everyone reading this is only drafting one tight end, one kicker and one defense; we decided it is better to cram them all into one succinct post instead of trying to think of something clever, insightful or interesting to say about Mason Crosby.

So, hear is Talking Fantasy Football’s top ten of each of these three positions:

Tight Ends:

1) Kellen Winslow - Everything he did last season plus whatever comes with a year’s experience.
2) Jason Witten - Can block, but basically a second wide out.
3) Antonio Gates - Ditto
4) Tony Gonzalez - …And now with a second year starter.
5) Jeremy Shockey - Very tempting to put as high as two, but we’ll play it conservatively.
6) Todd Heap - So long as Troy Smith is the quarterback.
7) Alge Crumpler - Should rebound with a QB that doesn’t like throwing to shitty receivers.
Dallas Clark - Always reliable.
9) Chris Cooley - underused and still finished sixth in overall scoring.
10) Vernon Davis - Is fully capable, just waiting on team catch up with him

One name we intentionally left of this list is Heath Miller. Why? because fuck Heath Miller. We’ve over-drafted him each of the past two seasons when he should have broken out, but since he is such a skilled blocker, they divy up tight end plays between him and some other white guy who was too slow to be a linebacker. So fuck the Steelers with a pineapple.

This might be too light, proper vindictation might have to be one of those square watermelons.

Defenses:

1) Minnesota - Just hope Tavaris doesn’t throw too many interceptions deep in their own territory.
2) San Diego - Always rated highly, and always live up to it. Last year they led the league in production.
3) Green Bay - Balanced defense with no glaring weaknesses.
4) Jacksonville - They lost Marcus Stroud, but still have a loaded attack.
5) Tennessee - Should only get better, but they have the same liability as Minnesota.
6) New England - Sometimes on the field too long, and rarely have long breaks as the offense scores quickly.
7) Tampa Bay - As balanced as Green Bay, just not as good.
New York Giants - Will they create the same pressure in the backfield without Strahan? We tend to think so.
9) Seattle - Great at home, vulnerable on the road.
10) Dallas - Should improve, but we’re reluctant to believe it.

When it comes to predicting the success of a team’s defense, few things are more imperative than schedule. Which we didn’t look at before determining these rankings. Heed this advice at your own peril.

Kickers

Top Five:
1) Nick Folk - The variables that make up a kickers strength: Accuracy and the offenses ability to move the ball. Folk has both in spades.
2) Adam Vinateri - Google him if you don’t know why.
3) Phil Dawson - See Nick Folk.
4) Shane Graham - NFL in Ohio will at least excel in something.
5) Jason Elam - You have a better suggestion?

Bottom Five:
1) David Akers - His performance parallels McNabb’s health over the past five seasons.
2) Rian Lindell - Who? Also, he plays for Buffalo.
3) Joe Nedney - He could be the next Vinateri, but he plays for the Niners so we’ll never know.
4) Justin Medlock - He made one field goal last season.
5) Whoever Miami’s kicker is - He’s Miami’s kicker.

My apologies for being so brief and I can assure you this site will not typically operate this way. The frequency and depth of the posts will be something in between today and the rest of the week. Also, who the hell wants to read paragraphs about the fantasy outlook for kickers?

Back Monday with something other than a list.

With quarterbacks, rankings of these nature tend to be a lot more straightforward. Everyone, including someone as dissenting as myself, can agree to a certain extent, where each quarterback will rank amongst his peers. Not only that, but there are no more than thirty-five of them that anyone is going to draft and the variation will be diminished by default. So for other positions, when we did five to avoid, it was relative to where you would have to draft them. For quarterbacks, it is more along the lines of these guys will ruin your week should they start for you.

1) Vince Young
Do not believe that he is going to bounce back from a dismal second season. He might come through in the clutch and make big plays in big moments, and they may even go to the playoffs. But drafting him for those reasons is like seeing a Judd Apatow movie for the Oscar potential. We did elude to the Titans having an improved offense with the acquisition of Alge Crumpler when hyping LenDale White, but we suspect the improvement will be minimal, though enough that the running game can carry them even further. They still have no noteworthy receivers and the offense will still be primarily on the run.

2) Alex Smith
Stubby fingers McGee has yet to live up to his #1 overall pick hype, and even with the improvement that will come with Mike Martz play calling, we aren’t expecting Smith’s production to be proportionally improved. Basically, if he were a receiver and caught for the amount of yards he is going to pass for this season, he would be a dead lock for the pro bowl.

3) Marc Bulger
Just like with his top receiver and partner in the backfield Steven Jackson, we expect Marc Bulger to produce about the same type of season that he did last year. Long story short, Bulger was cut in our league about halfway through the season. 11 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and under 3,000 yards, albeit that was only in 12 games, but that would only increase his interception total to twenty.

4) JaMarcus Russell
He’s in pretty much the same boat that Matt Ryan is, only with more contention within the team. Sorry Oakland fans, but Russell is a player who built his reputation off one bowl game against Notre Dame (probably one of the worst defenses to ever play in a bowl game) and your front office bought the hype. If you are in a position where you have dug yourself into a hole and are looking for a starter; and think that maybe, just maybe, JaMarcus Russell can make this offense respectable, please reconsider.

If we are comparing former SEC quarterbacks, he is no Jason Campbell.

5) Aaron Rodgers
For obvious reasons. We actually thought he would be effective and assimilate to the system he has been studying for three years quite smoothly. But his predecessor who refused to be his mentor has done everything he can to prevent a smooth transition. We are actively rooting for him, but think he is almost damaged now. Green Bay is basically the hospital in One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest at this point, he wasn’t crazy until they sent him there.

Rounding out the top ten, most of these probably don’t need mentioning, but we will anyways:

6) Any QB for the Arizona Cardinals: The receivers are moody, the running backs are pedestrian, Leinhart and Warner’s positions are tenuous. It’s a poor mans Rodgers-Favre situation.
7) Either Buffalo quarterback: See #6.
Jeff Garcia: Damn near forty and adversely effected by Brett Favre melodrama. Plus his best receiver is the same age he is.
9) Either Chicago quarterback: Unless your league is relegated to NFC North players, it shouldn’t be hard to avoid Grossman or Orton.
10) Tavaris Jackson: Probably the worst starting quarterback with job security in the history of the NFL. I’m harsh but fair.

Cover tight ends, defenses and maybe kickers tomorrow.

If you are looking to stockpile receivers and running backs like many fantasy football players are wont to do, you may be looking at a shaky quarterback in the later rounds of the draft. Here are the five you don’t want to sit on if you miss out on one of the top nine.

1) David Garrard
With new receivers in Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter, David Garrard might actually have some playmakers who this team has desperately needed. Garrard finally beat out Leftwich for the starting quarterback role, and looks to capitalize on the responsibility by improving on last year’s efficient performance. By efficient, I mean he only had eighteen touchdowns, but those are much more valuable next to only three interceptions.

2) Jay Cutler
Coming off an up-and-down first season assuming the starting position, Cutler could be poised for a breakout year. His numbers were about what you would expect: twenty touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3,500 passing yards; just good enough for a serviceable quarterback. Generally this is when you see a quarterback make the leap from serviceable to effective, we are actually optimistic that will happen. The same can’t be said for all Colorado natives.

This is just where South Park and Talking Fantasy Football will have to disagree.

3) Matt Schaub
With a healthy receiving core headed by Andre Johnson and a year of experience under his belt (he was all but a rookie last season), Schaub has the potential and the weapons to make up for that surplus of running backs you took. All that said, Andre Johnson’s health really is the key. Of the nine touchdown passes Schaub threw, eight were to Johnson. And that was in nine games. We recommend Schaub, but only with a healthy Andre Johnson to open up the field.

4) Eli Manning
There is an offset chance some Giants nut in your league overdrafts the younger Manning by about a mile, if that is the case then just look at it as one more available receiver or running back available to you later. If not, Eli will give you a steady performance week in, week out (though there are exceptions). If Plaxico figures out what planet he resides on, there is a good chance he applies the experience he got from the Superbowl run.

5) Jake Delhomme
I’d probably only draft him as a backup because you have no idea how he will come back from his season ending injury last year. But if you are in dire straits, the potential here is high as he comes back into an improved offensive line, a real running back, and his second favorite career target back in Muhsin Muhammad to accompany a healthy Steve Smith.

Rounding out the ten best value picks:
6) Donovan McNabb: You may run into the same problem drafting McNabb late as you will have with Eli Manning, but shrug it off and take comfort in the fact that Kevin Curtis will be sidelined for awhile.
7) Philip Rivers: Should improve, might not. If you draft a quarterback in the first eight rounds you won’t have to worry about it.
Jon Kitna: Exactly how many more years does Detroit hope to get out of his averageness? Anyhow, throws for a lot of yards, which should help offset his interceptions.
9) Brady Quinn: If you drafted Derek Anderson, you better be prepared to use a bench spot on Quinn.
10) Matt Ryan: Will obviously stumble along the way, but at least you don’t know what you’re getting. Unless you are in a league that consists of multiple Bostonians or Georgians, he should be available.

Five to avoid in a couple.

Since we are starting so late and since there are only thirty-two starting quarterbacks in the NFL (though over 60 made starts last season, but is anyone considering drafting more than maybe four of the backups in the league?), we are going to limit our profile on them to three posts: this one, value picks & the quarterbacks to avoid.

1) Tom Brady
Just like with Randy Moss, you set the single season record for touchdowns at your position, you are the default number one fantasy option the following year. Particularly for Brady, since his cumulative of TD’s was 50. 50! He won’t be able to repeat that (if he does they are probably going undefeated again in the regular season), but this is the safest pick in the draft, much less at just quarterback.

He's kind of a douchebag, if you can stomach having him on your team then you'll be all the better for it.

2) Drew Brees
I guess I am supposed to put Peyton Manning here by default, but with his nagging injuries I’m inclined to drop him a little (don’t worry Manning apologists, it won’t be too far). Brees plays in a weaker division (and conference), has more weapons at his disposal (Including a brand new tight end, , and had a stronger second half of the season last year. Amidst all this evidence, we’re inclined to put Brees in the two slot.

3) Tony Romo
Fantasy football isn’t a measure of wins and losses but of individual statistics. At the moment, Romo has a top three receiver, a top five tight end, a great running game and a history of putting up big numbers in the regular season. Last year he had five more throwing touchdowns and threw for more yards than Manning. He even ran two into the end zone. With again, the uncertainty of his injury and the fact he plays in the AFC south, we have Romo here at three.

4) Peyton Manning
Hey, he’s still Peyton Manning. Despite my utter, irrational contempt for the guy, I can’t deny the results. Should he stay healthy, he’ll have another pro bowl season at a bare minimum.

5) Ben Roethlisberger
I know the popular sentiment for the five hole is Carson Palmer, but he has limited himself to the right side of the field since his knee injury. Roethlisberger has arguably better receivers, two better tight ends and a better running game (keeping opposing defenses honest). With their defense taking a step back this season, going for 28+ ppg will be an attainable goal for the offense.

Rounding out the top nine:
6) Matt Hasselbeck: As reliable as anyone, just don’t count on them to win two games in the playoffs.
7) Derek Anderson: Was much higher until the pre-season game against the Giants.
Carson Palmer: Puts up lofty numbers against weak teams, drops the ball against contenders. His picture should under the definition of “Inconsistent” in the dictionary.
9) Brett Favre: This might be too low, but its like walking into a drug deal with him this year: anything could happen.

Five value picks later today.

Just like with receivers, this isn’t necessarily the five worst running backs in the league. But rather, five backs that you want to avoid drafting where everyone says you should. If you can get them later then expected then by all means…but don’t draft someone with question marks all around him just because it is common consensus to do so.

1) Steven Jackson
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. we want no part of this Rams team. He’s still holding out, if he shows up at camp this second it will be too late for him to be prepared for the season, the offensive line is depleted, the quarterback is a mixed bag, and he was pretty unimpressive when healthy last season. Hey, we had him two seasons ago and he paid dividends, so we know what he is capable of at his peak. It’s just, of former Oregon State players, we have a lot more confidence in Chad Johnson than we have in Steven Jackson, and you all know what we think of Chad Johnson.

2) Frank Gore
How does Yahoo still have him ranked as the 8th overall fantasy player? Ask any fantasy player who had him last season if they were satisfied with his performance. He went for just over 1,500 total yards, but only had six touchdowns and was the generally a top five pick. The earliest we can justify taking him is round four, maybe late third if we haven’t taken a running back.

3) Willie Parker
Rushed for over 1,300 yards last season, with a paltry two touchdowns. In other words, he had 2/3 as many touchdowns as he did fumbles. My guess is Willie Parker is the guy who stockpiles women’s phone numbers in bars but never calls any of them. If those stats seem respectable enough to you to warrant a second round pick, remember that they drafter Rashard Mendenhall, so the production should only decline.

4) Larry Johnson
Banged up for a good part of last season, has two ready and willing backups with Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles, has already gotten his signing bonus and has a ridiculous amount of mileage on him after only five seasons. Needless to say, we’d rather roll the dice with a Denver running back in the seventh round then draft someone we suspect is washed up.

5) Willis McGahee
We’re not supremely confident that he will let you down if you use one of your first two picks on him, but we have virtually no faith Bawlmer’s capacity for moving the ball down field. With him battling nagging injuries and a capable backup and no surefire quarterback, he could end up sitting out a couple more games than you would like out of a first or second rounder.

Five more shaky choices:
6) Jamal Lewis: a return to last season’s performance would be nothing short of a miracle.
7) Edgerrin James: Still no threatening backup, but we his production continues to underwhelm.
Thomas Jones: Having Brett Favre could open up the run game, but he is 30 years old and we’re not sure if he will capitalize.
9) Rudi Johnson: The only reason he is not higher is that we don’t know if anyone is really considering drafting him that high.
10) DeAngelo Williams: Not exactly highly touted, but he isn’t even worth a late rounder.

Back tomorrow with quarterbacks, obviously will be formatted a tad differently than the past two days.

Pretty much the same principal as receiver, in that these rankings are for players who won’t break the cusp of third or even fourth tier guys, but will be a great acquisition in later rounds either because they are underrated, or they may see a few carries and potentially more if a teammate sustains and injury(something we don’t really rely on with receivers).

1) Kenny Watson
There is about a 95% chance that he usurps Rudi Johnson as the starter this season. I mean, he kind of already did, but this is the running back equivalent of the Harrison-Wayne “who’s the better receiver?” conundrum in Indy. If you can grab hold of Watson in the 8th round or better, we recommend doing so. Just be wary of Chris Perry, who might start to resemble an NFL running back this season after four seasons years in obscurity.

2) Chester Taylor
Mind you, before Adrian Peterson came to town and broke off over 1,300 yards, Chester Taylor went for over 1,200 the year before. With Peterson healthy, Taylor can only hope to see an absolute max of 35% or so of the carries. But to have him on the bench and use him during bye weeks is enough incentive to draft him in the 9th or 10th round, if Peterson happens to fall victim to injury (like some of us are inexplicably certain will happen), you have another compotent starter on your roster.

Probably the best Pro to come out of Toledo, and he's backing up the best running back to come out of Oklahoma. For shame.

3) Kevin Smith
This guy was an absolute stud for Central Florida last year, and we think he has the potential to be the same with the Lions. Not widely known, but since the Lions seem to hate all their running backs, look to pick up Smith earlier than expected. Right now he is listed as their starter.

4) Felix Jones
Another rookie. While everyone trips over themselves trying to draft Marion Barber, sit back and wait to take his backup, who should see ample playing time that will only increase as the season continues. That may come sooner than later as he has looked phenomenal in the pre-season (if that counts for anything).

5) Matt Forte/Kevin Jones
We have no idea who the starting quarterback or running back will be for this team, but both of these guys should be around late in the draft that you can make a desperate attempt to acquire them if you prioritized receivers and quarterbacks. Who knows, maybe Kyle Orton will lead them to the promise land?

Rounding out the top ten value picks:

6) Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith: Does anyone have any faith in Larry Johnson’s longevity in the NFL? If not, then it may be wise to pick up one of these two. It’s kind of a cop out to list both backups, but with all this running back by committee bullshit, its the best we can offer.
7) Ray Rice: A beast at Rutgers (something we never thought we would say), with Willis McGahee already listed as questionable on ESPN, look for Rice to get some significant PT.
Brandon Jackson: Think Ryan Grant won’t be able to handle a 16 week workload? or will choke under the pressure with no Favre to rely on? This is his replacement.
9) Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward: Assign a player to each side, flip the coin, and see which one comes up.
10) Whichever Denver running back you think is willing to murder his teammates to ensure at least 60% of the carries.

Five to avoid later today, if not in the next hour and a half then expect them later tonight.

This is kind of an odd category to define, but for the sake of consistency we are going to use the same definition we did for receivers: Someone who could exceed the expectations of the masses and produce a pro bowl season. So ere goes…

1) Julius Jones
Just like everyone else we thought Marion Barber was the better of the two in Dallas. But with him going to Seattle and there tendency to throw to the running back, and him being their sole playmaking running back (with all due respect to Mack Strong), in addition to them dumping a bunch of money into Jones, we like his chances to produce some decent numbers this season.

2) LenDale White
For all the discussion about his weight coming into the NFL, he put up some fairly impressive numbers last year. If Tennessee can move the ball downfield a little more efficiently this season (which I think they will with Crumpler), giving White more short yardage touchdown opportunities, we might see a pro bowl season for the USC alum. Just keep him away from the barbeque or whatever it is they eat in Memphis.

3) Jonathan Stewart
We are not sure how much of a sleeper Stewart can really be considered. DeAngelo Williams will split carries with from the start, but Williams will prove to be unable to compensate for his size. Stewart is the perfect combination of size and speed, and we imagine he will be getting the majority of the carries by week five. Hopefully he can develop some sort of pop culture persona or write a book or something, so he can go on Daily Show and the world as we know it will cease to exist.

Can you even tell the two Jon Stewart's apart?

4) Rashard Mendenhall
We were going to do a separate post for rookies, but as evidenced by Jonathan Stewart, today is going to be virtually impossible without including them. We have serious concern about Willie Parker’s ability to rebound. With the Steelers drafting a running back in the first round, it would appear I’m not alone. That first round pick absolutely decimated the Big Ten last year, and he is an absolute hass that they need for short yardage. They should split carries fairly evenly in the first place, if Parker goes down with some sort of injury, a 1,000+ yard season isn’t out of the question.

5) Michael Turner
He would have made top ten if it wasn’t for the fact that he plays for the Falcons. For years, everyone has drafted him prematurely in hopes that Tomlinson would get injured and they could capitalize on it with another top-tier running back. Now in Atlanta, no one seems to optimistic about his chances to succeed to the point we contemplated putting him on the value picks list.. We expect Atlanta to improve this season in every aspect of the game, and a part of that is the running game.

Rest of the ten sleepers:

6) Ronnie Brown: A lot of uncertainty about Brown, but with the season he was in the midst of producing last year, we like him in the third or fourth (where we got him in both our drafts).
7) Reggie Bush: Most of his production might come from receiving, but he still lines up at running back.
Earnest Graham: Can someone who broke 200 fantasy points be regarded as a sleeper? In a draft this deep with running backs: absolutely.
9) Chris Brown/Steve Slaton: Whoever starts for Houston should put up some numbers.
10) Almost any backup for a starter who is sidelined early (there are about twenty of them).

While there is an excess of serviceable to good running backs, there is a shortage of great ones. Going into the 2008 season the top five running backs seems pretty straight forward, and has been covered by about a couple hundred thousand other online sites, so this post is somewhat redundant. But, maybe you’ll be taken aback by my witticisms and prose…I’m just kidding, this is going to be like everything else you’ve ever read.

1) LaDanian Tomlinson
Like virtually every other NFL team, I don’t have any particular like or dislike for the Chargers. But good lord am I sick of hearing about this guy. And it pains me to rank him as the top running back. What are you going to do, though? When you factor in all the attributes one looks for in a fantasy running back (performance, consistency & health), he is the best culmination of the three. Whatever decline he experienced last season was…well, it was considerable. But his production was still good enough to lead the league in rushing.

Did anyone see the 60 Minutes profile on him? They wouldn’t let the cameras videotape most of his training program. Probably because he does steroids, but either way its like the fucking Manhattan Project. I’m like that as well, but I prefer my seclusion when I’m eating donuts. I only eat them alone. In the dark. And if anyone calls me while I’m digging into a baker’s dozen, I pick up the phone and scream, “You’re interrupting my quiet time!”

That, my friends, is a pro.

2) Brian Westbrook
He has the reputation of being injury prone, but outside of one season three years ago it is mostly a myth (though we won’t lie, yahoo constantly having him listed as questionable in2007 was quite nerve-racking). He has missed one game in each of the past two seasons, about as good as you can expect from any running back in the physically unforgiving NFL. Also, Westbrook is something of an anomaly in the NFL these days: much like Tomlinson, he sees probably 80% of the carries for his team (and also like Tomlinson, contends for leading receiver coming out of the backfield).

3) Adrian Peterson
We know by week six his body will be mangled like something out of Planet Terror, but we can’t help it. The potential on this guy is like nothing we’ve ever seen before. When watching highlights or talking about the day that was in the NFL or whatever, I just want to be able to say, “he’s on my fantasy team” about Peterson. I am unabashedly smitten with AP as a fantasy football prospect. I just wish he would return some of my letters. Also, we’ll be over drafting Chester Taylor this season.

4) Joseph Addai
As reliable (maybe even more so) as Tomlinson, but he’s like the anti-Peterson. In other words, he is the conservative pick. He’ll probably get you twenty points a week and its about a 95% chance that he stays healthy, but he’ll never get you forty. We mentioned the acquisition of Rhodes, but if he is getting more than 15% of the carries by week five we’d be surprised. Anyhow, why his production will be steady, we kind of expect the Colts to slip a bit this season, and we have no idea how his stats will be effected.

Ooh, wow. Look at him go for fifteen touchdowns in just his sophomore season. Did he break the single game rushing record in his rookie season?...Didn't think so.

5) Laurence Maroney
With the deadly passing game and the improvement he showed towards the end of last season and in the playoffs (the passing game carried the team for the first 12 weeks while he got healthy), we like his chances for a breakout season. Also, we like him splitting time with LaMont Jordan & Kevin Faulk, as he should see a considerable majority of the carries. I hope. Assuming I have him on my team. Otherwise we are fully on the Kyle Eckel bandwagon.

Rest of the top ten:
6) Marion Barber: We need no more justification than this clip.
7) Maurice Jones Drew: Runs, catches and returns…a true multi-tasker.
Ryan Grant: Only for the beastly line, impressive numbers last season and absence of competitive second running back. We are a little worried about the morale in Green Bay right now.
9) Brandon Jacobs: Seems to be healthy though we are worried about it. Also worried about? The plethora of running backs lined up behind him.
10) Marshawn Lynch: Fairly uninspiring and we are not much more confident in him than we are in the next ten guys, but we need to fill this spot.

Today will follow the same format as yesterday with the receivers. Stay tuned.

We have all over-drafted a player a year too late, a year too early, under the wrong circumstances and sometimes we were just lacking the appropriate information. These are five players to avoid drafting unless you can get them at a cheap price. For instance, one of the people on this list is Chad Johnson. Now, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take him in the fifth round if he is available, but relative to where he is likely going to be drafted, there will always be much better, reliable options, at the receiver position or elsewhere.

1) Greg Jennings
Obviously the change at quarterback factors into this, but we also feel that as good as Jennings was last year, he might reclaim his backseat to Donald Driver this season. With a new quarterback like Rodgers, he is going to feel much more comfortable throwing to a set receiver like Driver than throwing over the top to a player like Jennings. Earliest to draft him: 5th round.

2) Anquan Boldin
Obviously a remarkable talent, produces in every way imaginable. But between the contract disputes that he seems to be developing Shawn Kemp levels of insecurity over, and uncertainty at quarterback (as in, who to start and if either of them will be sufficient), we are reluctant to take him anywhere before the fifth round.

3) Chad Johnson
Let’s see, he’s unstable, pissed at the front office and possibly his coach, demanding, dissatisfied and constantly fighting nagging injuries. While he is still a remarkable talent, it hurts his game that Palmer never seems to throw to the left side of the field since his knee injury and when Chad Johnson isn’t happy, no one is. Offenses with firepower that we are scared to death of taking most of their players from (though there are exceptions) are the Cardinals, Bengals & Rams. Earliest we could take him: 4th round. Speaking of which…

Unless your league scores for creative end zone celebrations, its best to steer clear of Ocho Cinco in the first few rounds.

4) Torry Holt
Simply put, we want nothing to do with this Rams team. Given, Bulger and everyone around him could rebound back to their once vaunted status, and Holt could benefit from that, but we are skeptical. They do benefit from playing in that downy soft NFC West division, but that isn’t enough incentive to draft such a commodity in one of the first three rounds, of which he is sure to go. Early fifth is as high as we can imagine going for Holt.

5) Lee Evans
It seems like a popular sentiment to proclaim this the year Lee Evans earns his keep, the problem is we can’t figure out why. The Bills still have the same uncertainty at quarterback, the running game is still marginal, and he still plays in frigid fucking Buffalo (so you know the passing game will be reigned in for those home December games). The only difference we’re aware of is the addition of James Hardy. Whom we like above all other rookie receivers, but hardly think he’s going to be deterring the defense away from Mr. Evans. Not right away, at least. Honestly, seventh, maybe sixth round is the best we could do for him.

6-10:
6) Reggie Brown: After watching the Eagles hang their hopes on him for the past two seasons, and watching him fall short in every critical moment, we don’t want him in the 100th round.
7) Any Seahawk receiver: Can anyone tell me who the primary target is on this team? Is it Deon Branch? Nate Burleson? The numbers from last season would tell you it is Bobby Engram, but does a repeat performance in 2008 seem likely?
Any Oakland receiver: Spearheaded by Ronald Curry. It makes you wonder why they didn’t draft Calvin Johnson over the assured bust that is JaMarcus Russell, considering it was the same year that they traded Moss to New England for a can of sardines.
9) Marvin Harrison: Between his health, off-the-field problems, growing irrelevance and the uncertainty around Manning’s injury, there is more reason to stay away from him than OJ at this point.
10) Roy Williams: He might go lower than you’d expect based on his pitiful 2007 season, but be very wary of him. He had five touchdowns last season and I believe four of them were in the first three weeks of the season. Buy low, and very low at that.

We are looking forward to this post blowing up in our face. Tune in for our running back rankings tomorrow.

While the difference between this and sleepers might seem negligible, and it admittedly probably is, but while sleepers are considered those who could reach the upper-echelon of receivers, this is ranking players who can be productive though drafted in lower rounds.

1) Jabbar Gaffney
With Dante Stallworth now toiling away in Cleveland, Gaffney should step up and assume the third wide receiver spot. If there is anything that hurts Moss’ fantasy value, it’s that Brady and Bellicheck couldn’t care less about who is catching passes. This benefits Gaffney, who came on strong for the Pats in the second half of last season. This kid can play, it is just a matter of him getting touches.

2) Muhsin Muhammad
“Chicago is where receivers go to die” is Muhsin’s way of summarizing his experience with the Bears. Now feeling adequately compensated from his dismal three seasons in Chicago, Muhammad has journeyed back to where he made his name. Do not expect him to return to his 2004 numbers, but expect an improvement from his awful stint in Chicago.

They look pretty lively here. Though its probably the NFL equivalent of reaching the front of the bread line.

3) Bryant Johnson
There is a decent chance someone over-drafts him in your league, if that is the case then shrug it off. But Bryant Johnson, finally out of the shadows of Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona, now has a fresh start with the 49ers. The problem with that of course, is that it is with the 49ers, an offense that has looked consistently inept since drafting the ill-advised Alex Smith in 2005.

4) Chris Henry
Guess who’s back? As of today, the Bengals have invited Chris Henry, the immensely troubled wide receiver out of West Virginia (how have him and Pacman never been arrested together?), back to the team. It could coincide with Housh and Chad Johnson having mental (only applies to Johnson)/physical health problems, either way, if your league isn’t based out of Ohio, there is a good chance this news will elude most of your draft. Sure, he is suspended for the first four games, but sitting him on your bench when there are no bye weeks isn’t that much of a sacrifice for a guy who can play.

5) Shaun McDonald
This all comes down to how much faith you have in Roy Williams to act like a human being. At the moment we’re wavering. He’s not like Ricky Williams, he seems to definitively enjoy playing football, but he seems disinterested in taking it even remotely seriously. I can appreciate that, but it makes this Lions receiving core a fucking mystery in fantasy football. McDonald had a stellar year in 2007, we have no idea how the stellar Mike Furrey, scatterbrained Roy Williams and emerging Calvin Johnson will effect his status, which means he has a lot of potential and little profile, definitely good for a safe late round pick.

Rounding out the top ten:
6) Anthony Gonzalez: He actually benefits if Harrison and Wayne are healthy and productive.
7) Robert Meachem: He would be higher on this list if not for Shockey coming to town and Devry Henderson standing in front of him.
Devin Hester: No Bernard Berrian or Mushin Muhammad in Chi-town anymore, much like Bryant Johnson (and to an even greater extent), someone is almost guaranteed to overdraft him. If Kyle Orton’s arm can keep up with him we’ll be surprised, though.
9) Patrick Crayton: Someone other than Witten and Owens has to catch the ball.
10) Troy Williamson: Blazing speed with a reliable quarterback that could turn a few heads in Jacksonville.

List of five to avoid a little later.

When you call someone a sleeper, it can be a very subjective term. So for the sake of this post, we will narrow it down to this: Someone who can exceed the expectations of the masses and turn into a pro-bowler. In other words, they could break the ceiling and emerge into the top ten of this list when all is said and done. Someone like, say, Plaxico Burress doesn’t qualify, because you know what you are getting from him, and he’s not going to exceed expectations because even if he has a career season, its only going to be marginally better than what he’s done in the past.

1) Jerricho Cotchery
To summarize, in Cotchery’s tinier with the Jets, they have never had a quarterback who could throw the ball accurately down field. Now with Brett Favre lining up behind center, not only do they have a quarterback who can do so accurately, he will unabashedly do so inaccurately as well. His stats were fairly impressive last year with noodle-armed Pennington and in-over-his-head Clemens, so expect him to improve on that two touchdown total from 2007.

2) Santonio Holmes
Last year’s numbers were a mixed bag, with a great ypc average, but not very many catches. And with the acquisition of Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, the Steelers might be the same old story on offense: A surplus of short gains and a periodic big play down field. But with a defense that will probably take a couple steps back, an (arguably) top five quarterback, a balanced attack on offense and a player with Holmes’ speed, we could see him being their new Plaxico Burress this season.

3) Calvin Johnson
Does he overtake Roy Williams as the primary target? If last season was any indication, Williams is obviously disinterested with football or hoping to force a trade through incredibly uninspired play (Shaun McDonald outscored him on his own team). Johnson, however, is a workhorse. And all reports lead to him being the emerging star of this uneven offense. If Kitna can still be as mediocre as he’s always been, we might see a top five statistical year out of him.

How is he not on steroids?

4) Dwayne Bowe
If you consider how inept this offense was, Bowe’s rookie numbers were staggeringly impressive. We have a hard time seeing him crack that top ten, but with another year to develop some chemistry with seemingly doomed for failure quarterback Brodie Croyle, he could see an enormous increase in stats from his debut season. If nothing else, Kansas City has an embarrassingly low number of options.

5) Reggie Williams
Between Matt Jones turning into Jenny from Forrest Gump, Fred Taylor aging and David Gerrard being free of distraction from a five year long quarterback controversy, we wouldn’t be surprised if Williams finally turned into the NFL receiver we thought he would be while at the University of Washington. He did have ten touchdowns last year, but has to be more effective in between the twenties to make himself a top tier player.

Rest of the top ten:
6) Roddy White: Had a good season last year, and with a quarterback that has the confidence of the organization behind him, White could have a breakout season. We expect pretty much the same production, though.
7) Kevin Curtis: Will McNabb be healthy? Will the offense demonstrate a semblance of cohesion? If the answer is yes to both, Curtis could be the prime benefactor.
Joey Galloway: This guy will turn thirty-seven during this season, but what are Tampa’s other options. If he stays healthy, he could impress some people. We’re skeptical any of these things will happen.
9) Derrick Mason: We have no idea who the quarterback is going to be for the Ravens, but lets just say we like his chances much more with Troy Smith as the starter.
10) Chris Chambers: We have not one iota of insight into the Chargers mentality on the offensive side of the ball. But after a half season with Rivers and everyone else, expect Chambers to feel more at home with this incredibly talented unit. You can throw Vincent Jackson in here as well.

Again, if you are not noticing a lot of symmetry with this list, it is because it isn’t based on past performance, but rather who has a chance of cracking the top ten in overall production. These aren’t necessarily the ten guys not already in our top ten that have the best chance of ending up there, but top ten that you may not expect too. See, its not at all convoluted.

Given that many people have either had or will have their fantasy drafts in the upcoming couple weeks, we are going to spend the rest of this week doing player rankings. Today we’ll do three top five lists all revolving around receivers. This post is dedicated to the five best, then we’ll post the top five sleepers, top five value picks, and finish it with five to stay away from. It isn’t terribly original, but we got on this blog too late to exhibit any originality this close to the start of the season.

1) Randy Moss
Speaking of a profound lack of originality, Randy Moss is our selection for the best fantasy receiver in football. It’s unoriginal for a reason though: If you break the single season record for touchdown receptions, short of having an arrow shot through your knee before the season starts, you’ll be considered the best option at your position going into the draft.

2) Braylon Edwards
This might be a little presumptuous, but we like the 16 touchdowns he posted last year, we think the addition of Donte Stallworth should actually open things up for both of them, and we can’t think of any reason this offense would regress. It all depends on how scarred he was from that blog forum on Costas Now.

3) Terrell Owens
He seems to be the consensus #2 this year in fantasy, but he drops far too many passes and with the absence of a proven second receiver on the Cowboys, we could see him slipping a little this season. On the other hand, and It’s only training camp, but he looks remarkably poised and motivated on Hard Knocks. We have one rule of thumb, when you cry on a national stage in humiliating fashion, you have to redeem yourself in some way in the following calendar year. Owens looks prime to do so on the football field.

4) Steve Smith
He would be at #2 if it weren’t for the two game suspension that was handed down after he broke his teammates face for no reason at all, that probably trumps Gus Ferotte’s self-induced concussion from a few years ago in terms of football meathead-ery. Short temper and all, we think he is prime for a big comeback year assuming Delhomme can stay healthy and is similar to his old self. Remember, when Moss was wasting away in Oakland and Owens was…doing whatever Owens was doing his second season in Philly, Smith was unequivocally the best receiver in fantasy football.

Mr. Smith may have picked the wrong line of work.

5) Reggie Wayne
With and aging Marvin Harrison now living a publicly lawless lifestyle (Come on, he doesn’t celebrate in the end zone, he has to be a stand up guy!), Reggie Wayne makes his official ascension into the number one slot on this team. It has been speculated about for years, and it will finally happen this season (You could argue that this happened last season, but it would have been by default with Harrison out for the majority of the season). Still, with Manning’s health a potential issue, Wayne’s stats could see a tremendous decline.

Just for the hell of it, the rest of the top ten:
6) Houshmandzadeh: Still better than Chad Johnson, though frail like Yao Ming.
7) Marques Colston: Would be in top five if not for acquisition of Shockey and rise of second year receiver Robert Meachem (more on both of them later).
Wes Welker: Stone cold reliable, and with Stallworth in Cleveland, Brady will be forced to dump to him out of a lack of options more often.
9) Andre Johnson: Would be higher if it weren’t for his seemingly never-ending strand of injuries. Would be higher if we had any faith in him playing all sixteen weeks.
10) Larry Fitzgerald: Probably the opposite of Welker in terms of reliability, but has a Reggie Wayne like ceiling.

You may recall that last year there was a shortage of healthy, reliable running backs. We could experience something similar in 2008 with wide receivers, making it all the more imperative to snag one of the top ten receivers available. Keep that in mind if you have an option between any of these guys and Edgerrin James and Willie Parker.

For our first substantive post, I would like to talk about the perils of the first overall draft pick. This is generally regarded as something to be envied, but generally those people either lose every season they play in, or have never played fantasy football altogether. Your seasoned fantasy football participant knows it is far better to have the last pick instead of the first in the opening round of your draft.

(Mind you, all posts on this site will be circumstantial. Meaning, the settings of your draft might make this advice useless. The first overall pick isn’t that detrimental if you are in an eight team league. I’m not sure if those even exist anymore given the immense popularity of fantasy football these days. But if you happen to be in one, then bully for you. Now go draft your pro-bowler laden team and don’t worry about anything, because your entire league will be determined by your over-saturated waiver wire pool).

Back to the post.

Certainly it can have its advantages. I mean, you get the closest thing you can to a lock, and that player — barring injury — generally finishes within the top ten in overall scoring, regardless of how your league is formatted. What goes unmentioned is what happens after that pick. In short, the talent pool is depleted before you are back on the clock. You go from getting what is (generally) the most coveted player in the league that may or may not get injured to someone who isn’t all that much better than a fourth round pick. Meanwhile, if you are picking between 4-12 (assuming that is the size of your league), you walk away with two barn burners.

It is particularly difficult in a season like this one. For a number one overall selection, every single player has question marks around him. Whether its Adrian Peterson and his split time with Chester Taylor and constant injury problems dating back to his sophomore season at Oklahoma, or LaDanian Tomlinson and his depreciation last season, or Joseph Addai and Indy’s reacquisition of Dominick Rhodes, etc. Everyone has some glimmer of doubt with this pick and no one is really standing out amongst the first six or seven candidates on anyone’s rankings. The worst part of it is: for the sake of your season, it is absolutely critical you get this right. Because if this pick turns out to under-perform or is sidelined for whatever reason, there’s about a 95% chance your season is cooked.

It's hard to look past this man's potential.

I was faced with this very dilemma in a public draft earlier this season. I have never had the first overall pick in any fantasy draft prior to this random ordering. To me, the question was a no-brainer: Tom Brady. For starters, I resent the “Always draft a running back first” mantra that is so prevalent for these things (that’s another post, but it is especially true this year). He isn’t a health liability, he’s a workhorse, still has a great receiving core and is motivated. Do I expect him to throw fifty touchdowns or whatever again? Of course not. But if he manages to get 30 or more with a limited number of picks? Then I’ll feel vindicated.

But did I like the team I ended up with as a result? Absolutely not. After taking Brady, I sat on my fat ass for the next twenty minutes waiting for every one to take the maximum amount of allotted time to pick, then ended up taking….(it’s almost embarrassing to say) Plaxico Burress. Ugh. Now, I could have arguably (and in hindsight) should have went with Steve Smith who was still available, despite the two games he is suspended for. But I like Burress’ breakout potential, quarterback, and surrounding teammates a lot more than I like Steve Smith’s. After that I went with Kellen Winslow, and I’m content with that pick with the first in the third round.

In short, I ended up with a stud quarterback, a borderline stud receiver and the best tight end in the league. My two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Julius Jones) are both health risks and I am left spinning in the wind trying to play catchup after that Tom Brady selection. Maybe I defied conventional wisdom too much by waiting for the last pick in the fourth round to take a running back, but there isn’t that many great receivers to go around and this is a twelve person league.

Contrast this in another twelve team league wherein I was drafting sixth overall, my first five picks were Brian Westbrook, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Derek Anderson & LenDale White (followed by Tony Gonzalez and Julius Jones in rounds six and seven). Needless to say, I am much more optimistic about the outcome with this team.

So while it is swell and all having Tom Brady on my team, it fucking blows not having Braylon Edwards or Brian Westbrook or Laurence Maroney to accompany him. My best advice? Should you be unfortunate enough to find yourself in this ridiculously unenviable position, trade the pick to the newbie in your league for better positioning. Then cry in shame as whoever you take in the first round ends up shattering his knee in week two.