Fantasy Football

Today I’ll rank the QBs for this weekend’s matchups, and follow up tomorrow with my Week 1 RB rankings and Saturday with my Week 1 WR rankings.

Manning owners couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 matchup.

1. P. Manning (IND) vs NO: All the makings of a shootout
2. D. Brees (NO) at IND: See Peyton Manning
3. T. Brady (NE) at NYJ: Anything less than 3 TDs would disappoint
4. M. Bulger (STL) vs CAR: Should approach 300 yards and get 2 scores
5. C. Palmer (CIN) vs BAL: Hopefully 2 TDs will make up for the lack of yards he’ll likely get
6. D. McNabb (PHI) at GB: I can’t envision a poor performance here
7. M. Leinart (ARI) at SF: Should be a high scoring game on Monday night
8. M. Hasselbeck (SEA) vs TB: Expect Hasselbeck to get at least 2 TDs as Seattle is solid at home
9. B. Roethlisberger (PIT) at CLE: Steelers should put it to the Browns and Ben will be a big reason why
10. P. Rivers (SD) vs CHI: At least he gets the tough Bears D at home
11. T. Romo (DAL) vs NYG: Dallas should be able to put up points on Giants at home
12. J. Kitna (DET) at OAK: Raiders secondary is tough, but Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson should make at least one big play
13. J. Cutler (DEN) at BUF: It is either going to be real good or real bad
14. E. Manning (NYG) at DAL: Should be playing from behind to help pad stats
15. M. Schaub (HOU) vs KC: I see a good start for the new Texans QB
16. A. Smith (SF) vs ARI: I’m not convinced yet but he has a good matchup
17. V. Young (TEN) at JAX: I don’t see him making 200 yards passing or getting 2 TDs so he better be great on the ground
18. B. Favre (GB) vs PHI: Should be trailing late and will probably get 300 yards, might not throw more than 1 TD
19. J. Delhomme (CAR) at STL: Steve Smith should be good for 1 TD and it could be a long one
20. J. Garcia (TB) at SEA: Seahawks should put Tampa away early and Garcia will likely be forced to chuck it 30-40 times, good yardage and 2-3 INTs should follow
21. D. Garrard (JAX) vs TEN: Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew should do most of the damage in this one, but Garrard could get some yards on the ground
22. S. McNair (BAL) at CIN: If Cincy can get some early points, Baltimore could be forced to the air more
23. J.P. Losman (BUF) vs DEN: This has all the makings of disaster
24. C. Pennington (NYJ) vs NE: I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t finish the game
25. C. Frye (CLE) vs PIT: At least if you were forced to start him you know he’d be playing from behind
26. R. Grossman (CHI) at SD: He has a chance to turn the ball over more than 5 times
27. T. Green (MIA) at WAS: This final score may consist of all FGs
28. J. Campbell (WAS) vs MIA: See Trent Green
29. J. Harrington (ATL) at MIN: He wasn’t good in Detroit, he wasn’t good in Miami, and he won’t be good in Atlanta
30. D. Huard (KC) at HOU: If you get points for handoffs you should start Huard
31. J. McCown (OAK) vs DET: The only good news is he gets Detroit
32. T. Jackson (MIN) vs ATL: If you are forced to start Jackson for any reason you should forfeit your game and your season

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team.

As we approach NFL’s opening weekend, some owners are scrambling to find out if their recently drafted fantasy stars are even going to suit up. If this is the case, it is time we check to see how they are progressing mid-week. If they are in fact going to miss or be limited for the week’s action, it is going to be another player’s gain, which in turn could make them a fantasy factor for your team.

Injured

Randy Moss (NE)- Mike Reiss of The Boston Globe is reporting that Moss (hamstring) has put together back-to-back days of full-pads practice, which is putting him on target for Week 1 activity. However, Reiss also mentions that he doesn’t believe the Patriots will give Randy a full load of work, considering he has missed so much preseason time.

Don’t underestimate Wes Welker’s value in Week 1 with Randy Moss limited.

Beneficiary

Wes Welker (NE)- While Donte Stallworth will get more looks with Moss not up to full speed, Welker is the guy that is likely to be on your free agent list right now. He had a sneaky good season in Miami last year, and he molds perfectly into the short passing game of the Patriots. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Welker be the most productive Patriots receiver on Sunday. You wouldn’t be crazy to start him over Moss this week.

Injured

Thomas Jones (NYJ)- Jones (calf) has practiced to begin the week and all indications point to him getting the start on Sunday. However, like Randy Moss, because of his missed preseason time, he can’t be expected to be in complete game shape. His work will likely be limited in some way.

Beneficiary

Leon Washington (NYJ)- With Jones ailing a bit, Washington should get plenty of work on Sunday. If he gets between 10-15 touches, which is very possible, he could make some noise on Sunday. If you are looking for a RB3 or possible flex, you could do a lot worse than plugging Washington into your lineup this week.

Injured

Donald Driver (GB)- The Green Bay Press-Gazette reports that Driver (foot) practiced today. He is expected to practice the rest of the week and be a go for Sunday. If you own Driver, feel free to start him as you normally would.

Beneficiary

Greg Jennings (GB)- With the possibility of Driver being slowed, Jennings will have the opportunity to step up and make some plays this week. He proved that he can do it with some great performances last year, but rookie James Jones is challenging him for some looks this season. We will find out on Sunday who Brett Favre will favor when Driver is not in his sights.

James Jones (GB)- The rookie had a strong preseason, and he could be this years Greg Jennings. Sunday should tell us a lot about how Brett Favre feels about the youngster.

Injured

Terry Glenn (DAL)- Glenn was expected to practice today, but nothing has been confirmed as of yet. He will likely be listed as questionable, and he could be the dreaded game-time decision for Sunday night football against the Giants. My guess would be that he will see limited snaps even if he does suit up. If I owned him, I would keep him on the bench.

Beneficiary

Patrick Crayton (DAL)- With Glenn up in the air, Crayton has significant fantasy value in Week 1. Crayton will get his fare share of looks from Tony Romo whether or not Glenn plays, and he should be good for 50+ yards and a possible TD. If Glenn is ruled inactive, Crayton has the ability to approach the 100 yard mark.

Injured

Clinton Portis (WAS)- While Portis is expected to start the game on Sunday against the Dolphins, the Washington Post reported that head coach Joe Gibbs has said he wants Ladell Betts to take more of the work early in the season. This leaves Portis owners in a real bind, especially if they have Betts as handcuff. Because Gibbs doesn’t strike me as the deceiving type, I believe him when he says that Betts will get more looks on Sunday. I would go with Betts over Portis as a fantasy owner.

Beneficiary

Ladell Betts (WAS)- Despite the Dolphins being a tough matchup for Betts, he should still play as a decent RB2 and a great RB3 for Week 1. Again, I expect him to get more touches than Portis on Sunday, and he is good enough to produce a solid game.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team.

With two short days until opening kickoff of the Thursday night Colts and Saints matchup, most fantasy drafts and auctions have come to an end. The next 48 hours or so are reserved for fantasy daydreaming. Owners love to envision a 20 TD season from their running backs (not named Tomlinson), even though they know it is far out of reach. For some running backs, the high TD total is simply unattainable. Their future TD total is in serious doubt because of what is known as the fantasy vulture. It is time to take a look at who the possible TD vultures may be, and whose value they may effect.

Heath Evans (NE)- Laurence Maroney owners should not feel safe until they see him punch a few in from a short distance. Bill Belichick is certainly unpredictable, and it has been rumored that Evans is going to get looks in short yardage situations. There is no telling how it will all unfold, but if Maroney gets a chance to take one in week 1, he needs to prove himself worthy.

Najeh Davenport (PIT)- Willie Parker should start the season as the goal line back, but the job is far from safe. Much like Maroney, Parker needs to be successful in early situations inside the 5 to solidify his spot for the rest of the year.

Ron Dayne (HOU)- I believe that Ahman Green will get every opportunity to be the short yardage back, simply because of his past success and his rather large contract. However, Dayne’s size and bulldozing ability make him a strong candidate for looks inside the 5.

Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jones (JAX)- The Jaguars goal line situation is an interesting one. If everything remains as it was at the end of last season, Jones-Drew will get all the touches inside the 5. However, Jones is back from a torn ACL and will play FB, and there is a chance he will get some looks near the endzone. I think the Jaguars have given up on Fred Taylor as a short yardage back, and rightfully so.

Mike Bell could be a nightmare for Travis Henry owners.

Mike Bell (DEN)- There hasn’t been too much talk about Mike Bell as the goal line back in Denver, but there should be. If I owned Travis Henry, I wouldn’t be extremely confident that he is going to be in the game inside the 5 come Sunday afternoon. Bell was fantastic in short yardage situations last season, and I don’t think Mike Shanahan has forgotten it. It could go either way, but Henry’s stock as a 1st or 2nd round pick would plummet if he is removed on the goal line.

Marion Barber III (DAL)- The vulture king of the ‘06 season is back for another round in ‘07. There has been some talk that new head coach Wade Phillips would allow Julius Jones to remain in the game on the goal line, but it probably won’t materialize. Barber was just too good in the role last year.

Tony Hunt/Correll Buckhalter (PHI)- Hunt, a rookie out of Penn State, has been rumored as the Brian Westbrook vulture of ‘07. However, I think there is a good chance it is going to be Buckhalter. Buckhalter is the undisputed #2, and he runs with enough power to be successful near the goal line. In a really shaky scenario, it could wind up becoming a mixture of all three RBs when the Eagles penetrate the 5-yard line.

T.J. Duckett (DET)- Whether it is Tatum Bell or Kevin Jones starting at RB, they both have to worry about Duckett vulturing TDs. He has proven success in the role, and that may be enough for the Lions to go with him on the goal line.

Adrian Peterson (MIN)- In the freak occurrence that the Vikings actually make it inside the 5-yard line this year, it will be AP who gets the looks. Despite the fact that he has a straight up running style, he runs with tremendous power. There is little doubt that he runs with more power than Chester Taylor, so this situation won’t leave much to the imagination.

Jerious Norwood (ATL)- Because Warrick Dunn is the official starter, Norwood has to be listed as vulture. With rookie Jason Snelling recently being waived, the job seemingly is going to be Norwood’s. The Falcons could decide to leave Dunn out there in certain short yardage situations, but he just hasn’t been very successful when given the opportunity. The bottom line is that Norwood is going to be more valuable than Dunn however you slice it.

Deuce McAllister (NO)- Because Reggie Bush is being drafted over Deuce, Bush owners will view McAllister as a vulture. Reggie will get a few touches inside the 5, but McAllister will get the majority. Deuce is the better bet to score more rushing TDs again in ‘07, which is why I don’t understand him slipping so far in the drafts I have seen.

Marcel Shipp (ARI)- Shipp is the one RB on this list that is almost assured of goal line looks. He was very good in the role at the conclusion of the ‘06 season, and Edgerrin James has never excelled as a short yardage back. If James doesn’t improve his horrendous yards per carry (3.4) from last year, Shipp could be looking at increased time between the 20’s as well.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team.

Now it has come time for the ultimate pre-draft list, the sleeper and bust list. Fantasy owners love the sleeper and bust list, likely because they feel these names are the ones who will give them an edge over the competition at the draft. I take this list very seriously, because this is a great time for me to separate myself from everyone else giving advice in the fantasy world. After all, a fantasy advisor is only as good as his predictions, and the sleeper and bust list is one that readers will remember vividly. My busts will be high profile, and my sleepers will be players who may not even get drafted. Here we go…

Busts

QB Vince Young (TEN)- I see a lot of Michael Vick in Vince Young (not a dog killer), a great running QB who everyone believed his passing stats would eventually catch up with his rushing stats. As we know with Vick, it just never happened. It is possible that Young will become a better passer than Vick, and turn into a fantasy superstar, but I just don’t see how it will happen this year. The Titans are very thin at WR, and it is going to be a case where Young will have to make his WRs better, not the other way around. I don’t believe that Young is accurate enough to make that happen, and his passing stats will suffer greatly because of it. He will still run his way to some great weeks, but he’s not going to be consistent enough through the air to make up for the games in which his running game is slowed. I would let someone else take him.

Vince Young’s inability to make big plays through the air will leave him as an inconsistent QB1.

RB Willis McGahee (BAL)- I don’t agree with the notion that McGahee will emerge as this great RB now that he is out of Buffalo. Sure, he probably has a better offensive line in Baltimore than he did with the Bills, but the Ravens’ passing game isn’t going to get defenders out of the box. He is going to face the same stacked line week in and week out that he did with the Bills, and he has proven time and time again that he can’t get to the secondary. Yes, he will get fed the ball, but he is not most durable RB in the league, so can we really expect him to workhorse his way to the end of the season? I don’t see enough TD potential, and certainly not enough big play potential for him to be taken as a RB1.

RB Cedric Benson (CHI)- I believe Benson is staring bust season right in the face. To me, he looks sluggish and slow running the ball. Even worse than that, he couldn’t even stay healthy when he split time with Thomas Jones, so what makes me believe he’ll be able to carry the load this season? Like McGahee, he is going to be looking at 8 and 9 men in the box every week, and I’m not convinced he’s good enough to take it on. It is also not a stretch to assume he’ll have limited scoring opportunities with Rex Grossman leading the offense.

RB Travis Henry (DEN)- I have been burned by the Mike Shanahan running back carousel too many times. It all looks great from a distance, take a talented RB who produced in Tennessee last season and stick him in the Broncos’ offense, and you have a fantasy stud. Well, I’m not convinced. A fumble here, a missed block there, and all of the sudden your RB1 is in the Shanahan doghouse. You could turn on a Denver game in Week 4 and some guy you’ve never heard of is handling the rock 15 to 20 times. I’m also concerned that Mike Bell will get short yardage looks, and if it doesn’t start that way, it certainly could end that way. Remember, Shanahan shows no loyalty towards his RBs, and it can get very tiring by midseason.

WR Donald Driver (GB)- I was going to put him on this list even prior to his foot injury. He’s coming off a career year in which he was really beat up quite a bit. He played through injury a lot in 2006, and I would be surprised if he was able to sustain his health through the entire 2007 season. Brett Favre will try to get Greg Jennings and rookie James Jones involved in the offense early in the season and Driver’s numbers should fall.

Honorable Mention: RB Rudi Johnson (CIN), RB Shaun Alexander (SEA), WR Terrell Owens (DAL)

Sleepers

RB Vernand Morency (GB)- Owners are almost ignoring him in recent drafts, and I don’t understand why. Sure, he’s not 100% at the moment, and certainly not the pinnacle of heath, but he’s a talented runner. The Packers like him, one because they traded for him last season, and two because they didn’t have a problem letting Ahman Green go on his way in the offseason. As long as he can get healthy, he will be the main man in Green Bay before midseason, leaving Brandon Jackson in his wake, trust me. Don’t ignore him near the end of your draft.

RB Mike Bell (DEN)- Bell was solid when called upon last season, and as I alluded to with Travis Henry, you just never know with Mike Shanahan. His goal line abilities would make him an all-around touch RB if Henry got hurt or fell out of favor with Shanahan. He is a good guy to have stored away on your bench if you have the room.

RB Chris Brown (TEN)- I don’t think anyone knows exactly how the RB situation is going to shake down in Titan land when the season begins. LenDale White should get the majority of touches when healthy, but Chris Brown is not going to be ignored by head coach Jeff Fisher this season. The Titans obviously think Brown can produce, or he wouldn’t still be hanging around in Tennessee. I can definitely see a situation in which Brown is receiving the bulk of the work by midseason, so keep him on your watch list.

RB Adrian Peterson (CHI)- You know how I feel about Benson, so the other Adrian Peterson should have a chance to show what he can do at some point this year. No one knows how good he really is, but the Bears obviously showed some confidence in him by trading Thomas Jones. He needs to be handcuffed to Benson without question, and other owners need to be ready to snatch him from the free agent list if Benson is aching.

RB Correll Buckhalter (PHI)- Some have talked about rookie RB Tony Hunt as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, but Buckhalter is the guy to have. Westbrook has very little chance of playing all 16 games, and Buckhalter has the ability to fill in nicely when he is out. He has bounced back from consecutive knee injuries and looked better than ever in his short time on the field last season. He should be FA eye candy until Westbrook is hurting, but don’t be afraid to grab him at any point if you have the room to do so.

QB Matt Schaub (HOU)- Some of the QB2’s and QB3’s that are being taken over Schaub baffle me. Why would you want an aging veteran like Steve McNair on your bench rather than a young QB like Schaub with a ton of upside? Schaub will play garbage man in a lot of games the Texans are behind, and he should end up with one of the higher pass attempt numbers in the league. I see a lot of reason to want Schaub as a bench QB late in your draft.

WR Patrick Crayton (DAL)- With Terry Glenn (knee) looking unsure of himself for the beginning of the season, Crayton will likely be the #2 man in the Cowboys’ passing game. He developed good chemistry with Tony Romo at the end of last season, so there is reason to believe that he will get a decent amount of looks in ‘07. I would grab him in the later rounds of your draft, as he has the potential to become a nice WR3 if Glenn continues to have issues with his knee.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Thought for certain to begin the season on the Lions’ PUP (physically unable to perform) list, the Detroit Free Press is now reporting that the team will choose to allow running back Kevin Jones to join the active roster. Leaving him on the PUP list would have kept him off the field until at least week 7, with Tatum Bell taking the bulk of the work until then.

Jones will not be shut down for the first half of the season as originally thought.

While it is uncertain how (or if) Jones will be used in Week 1, at least the option is now available. Jones, whose season ended prematurely in 2006 because of a Lisfranc injury (foot), has not practiced yet this preseason. Because he is not in game shape, he is unlikely to play a major role in the offense for the first few weeks.

However, this changes the prospects of fantasy draft boards. Jones needs to be moved up draft sheets, while Tatum Bell needs to slide a bit. It is very possible that Jones will be starting by the third of fourth game of the season. As long as his foot is healthy and he regains his game shape, he has the ability to be a huge fantasy factor at the RB position once again.

I will squeeze in my QB rankings today and my bust and sleeper picks tomorrow for those of you with Labor Day weekend drafts. Here we go with my top 25 QBs.

1. Peyton Manning (Ind)- He’s consistent, durable, smart, and plays in too good of an offense not to be the first QB taken off the board.
2. Carson Palmer (Cin)- Believe it or not, Palmer actually throws the best ball in the NFL. No one is as field smart as Peyton, but Palmer is just as good as him in the arm strength and accuracy department.

Brees led the NFL with 4,418 passing yards in ‘06. He should be a lock to eclipse the 4,000 yard mark once again in ‘07.

3. Drew Brees (NO)- Their defense will still give up points and Brees has all the weapons to keep up in the shootouts. There is no reason why he shouldn’t repeat last season.
4. Tom Brady (NE)- I like Brady behind the other 3 because the Patriots should be winning most of their games in the 4th quarter, which will be clock killing time. He just isn’t as likely to get hooked up in wild ones as the top 3.
5. Marc Bulger (Stl)- After the big 4, I am not sure I would take a QB for a while. However, if I was forced to choose one, I would go with Bulger.
6. Donovan McNabb (Phi)- He has looked great in the preseason, and to be honest the knee shouldn’t change his game much because he had stopped running prior to the injury anyway.
7. Philip Rivers (SD)- He should only get better and LT will put him in position to throw 25+ TDs.
8. Jon Kitna (Det)- Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Mike Martz are 4 reasons for success. He should be playing from behind a lot as well.
9. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea)- I think Seattle’s offense is overrated, so I’m not extremely high on Hasselbeck. He’s still a quality QB however.
10. Matt Leinart (Ari)- He obviously has the weapons, he just needs to show some progression in his 2nd season. I think he will, and I expect a solid season.
11. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)- As many of you know, I love Big Ben this year. He will bounce back huge from his disappointing 2006 season.
12. Tono Romo (Dal)- Some think Romo will regress this season, but I disagree. I like how he moves in the pocket and he’s fairly accurate. He’s not a bad QB1 and a great QB2.
13. Vince Young (Ten)- He needs to make huge plays on the ground to avoid a bust sophomore season, which he probably will do. However, the Titans just don’t have enough at WR to help his passing TD total. I would avoid him, especially in 6 point passing TD leagues.
14. Alex Smith (SF)- We will know if Alex Smith was worth the 1st overall pick for the 49ers this season. They went out and got him some weapons at WR and Frank Gore will help the offense move the ball once again. There is really no excuse for a poor season.
15. Jay Cutler (Den)- Sorry, I’m not a fan. Sure, he has a cannon arm, but so did Kerry Collins. Like Alex Smith, he really won’t have an excuse for a poor season, as the Broncos have plenty of talent surrounding him. Take him at your own risk.
16. Matt Schaub (Hou)- Schaub is going undrafted in many leagues, and that is ridiculous. He is well worth a late round pick as a QB2 or QB3. He is my sleeper QB of this year.
17. Eli Manning (NYG)- It is a make or break season for Eli in New York. I’m predicting break, as his beyond pathetic performance in last season’s wildcard game against Philly was enough to show me he’ll never live up to his name.
18. Jeff Garcia (TB)- Jon Gruden likes Garcia, and he should give him plenty of opportunities to make plays.
19. Brett Favre (GB)- This should be his last season, and it likely won’t be anything more than an average one.
20. Jake Delhomme (Car)- His play has really dropped off in the last couple of years, and this will be his last season in Carolina if it continues. I think he will improve.
21. J.P. Losman (Buf)- For the record, Losman is not good… at all. However, Lee Evans is great, and he’ll make enough huge plays to allow Losman to sneak in some good games.
22. Rex Grossman (Chi)- He’s young and could improve, which is why he makes the top 25. The odds aren’t good however.
23. JaMarcus Russell (OAK)- If he ever signs, it won’t take but a few games before he’s thrown to the wolves. He could be valuable the second half of the season.
24. Brady Quinn (Cle)- It shouldn’t be more than 4 or 5 games before Quinn takes over. At that point, the Browns should be close to winless and it will be Brady’s turn. He has Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to work with, so he is not without weapons.
25. Chad Pennington (NYJ)- He makes the final spot because I believe Pennington still has potential to be above average. He’s never going to be a fantasy superstar, but he can be good enough to store on your bench.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Upon request, I will toss out my top 50 WR rankings for the few of you left who still have drafting to do.

1. Chad Johnson (CIN)- Palmer is due for his career year, which bodes well for CJ. He was in top form Monday night when he toasted Falcons’ corner DeAngelo Hall on numerous occasions.
2. Reggie Wayne (IND)- He is only getting better and Peyton Manning knows it. The favoritism of Manning has to be passed from Harrison to Wayne sometime soon.
3. Steve Smith (CAR)- If Jake Delhomme was playing better, Smith would be my #1. He is the most explosive WR in the NFL, bar none.
4. Marvin Harrison (IND)- Is there any reason to believe he won’t be a top 5 WR once again?

Houshmanzilly, don’t be afraid to put him on the board…..championship.

5. TJ Houshmandzadeh (CIN)- He just keeps moving up my board, and for good reason. You do realize he would have lead the NFL in receptions in ‘06 had he not missed 2 games? 90 catches in 14 games, and Palmer loves to look to him inside the 10-yard line. Take him with confidence.
6. Anquan Boldin (ARI)- He is falling way too far in drafts. He is the most dominate WR in the league after the catch, as defenders can’t bring him down. Ken Whisenhunt wants to use him as a RB in some formations, which adds to his value. Ken would be smart to do so.
7. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)- Fitzgerald and Boldin go hand in hand. You can’t go wrong with either one, but there is no reason Larry should be going 8 WR ahead of Anquan in drafts (ESPN average). Can someone give me the logic on that?
8. Torry Holt (STL)- If it weren’t for his knee trouble, he would be in the top 5. I have to admit, I’m very concerned. I would steer clear.
9. Andre Johnson (HOU)- I have said it once and will say it again, he’s going to be huge in ‘07. He probably had himself a party when he found out the Texans weren’t bringing David Carr back.
10. Terrell Owens (DAL)- He can still play, but I worry about him both getting injured and/or punching a coach. He is capable of both.
11. Roy Williams (DET)- If he wasn’t so injury prone he would be higher on the list. When he is on the field he will put up great numbers.
12. Marques Colston (NO)- Drew Brees loves Colston, and he was just too good in ‘06 to be a fluke.
13. Randy Moss (NE)- Here is the ultimate wildcard. He has lost a step, I don’t care what he says. However, he has never had a QB as good as Tom Brady slinging him the ball, so the two cancel each other out. It could be feast or famine.
14. Javon Walker (DEN)- If I was a fan of Jay Cutler, Walker would make my top 10. However, I am not, so he is here.
15. Lee Evans (BUF)- I almost feel as sorry for Evans as I did for Andre Johnson while David Carr was in Houston. JP Losman is terrible, but Evans is awesome.
16. Hines Ward (PIT)- Ben Roethlisberger will be much better, as I have alluded to, so Hines Ward will as well. Ward has one great season left in him.
17. Plaxico Burress (NYG)- Eli Manning will not improve, but he is just good enough to get Plax the ball when need be. He should have around the same stats as ‘06, which is just fine.
18. Donald Driver (GB)- While I was extremely high on him prior to last season, I am extremely low on him this year, even before his foot injury. He is coming off of a career year, and I just can’t see him staying healthy.
19. Santana Moss (WAS)- He will make big plays and have huge weeks, so he can’t be ranked too low. Jason Campbell will make or break him.
20. Calvin Johnson (DET)- He is in the right situation to back up the hype. I don’t see anything but an above average season or better from the rook.
21. Darrell Jackson (SF)- He continues to have injury problems and now has downgraded at QB. He’s still good enough to draft as a WR2 or WR3.
22. Deion Brach (SEA)- Darrell Jackson’s loss is Branch’s gain. He should get plenty of looks from Matt Hasselbeck.
23. Reggie Brown (PHI)- Like Tom Brady, McNabb loves to spread the ball around. I’m just not as high on Brown as some are, but he should still have a decent season.
24. Donte’ Stallworth (NE)- Stallworth should benefit from defenses worrying about Randy Moss. He needs to stay healthy to be a factor, which as been his strong suit.
25. Bernard Berrian (CHI)- Berrian can’t reach his full potential because of Rex Grossman, but he’s too talented not to put up some good numbers anyway.
26. Vincent Jackson (SD)- When Gates isn’t targeted in the passing game, Jackson will. He has red zone skills and deep play ability that should result in solid numbers.
27. Chris Chambers (MIA)- Recent reports have Chambers being shopped in the trade market, but it looks as if he will stay. If I were him, I would want out. Trent Green shouldn’t do him any justice this season.
28. Laveranues Coles (NYJ)- He’ll likely be on the injury report every week and but manage to play. His could get to 1,000 yards but his TD total will be very low.
29. Mark Clayton (BAL)- I never thought I would say this, but Clayton would be better off with Kyle Boller throwing him the ball. Steve McNair can’t get Clayton the ball deep down the field and that is where he should make his killing.
30. Braylon Edwards (CLE)- Edwards will be inconsistent because of his QB play, but he has the skills to be a solid fantasy producer. Maybe once Brady Quinn gets settled in, Edwards can be big down the stretch.
31. Joey Galloway (TB)- He’s 35, but he still has plenty of speed. Had a 17.0 yard per catch average in ‘06. Jeff Garcia could ensure that he has one more 1,000 yard season.
32. Santonio Holmes (PIT)- Showed signs of growth toward the end of last season. He should be good for a few 50+ yard TDs this season as Big Ben’s only deep threat.
33. Greg Jennings (GB)- With Donald Driver banged up, Jennings should move up on draft sheets. Brett Favre believes in Jennings, and should look his way plenty again this year.
34. Terry Glenn (DAL)- He would be higher, but he’s having knee trouble that he may not recover from. It is probably better to stay away and grab Patrick Crayton instead.
35. D.J. Hackett (SEA)- Hackett will get his first chance to start in Seattle in ‘07. Many feel that his is going to have a big season, but I am a little more reserved.
36. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)- He will only be valuable if he becomes targeted more than Coles. I just don’t believe Pennington is good enough to make both of them fantasy factors once again.
37. Kevin Curtis (PHI)- He is now starting for the normally pass happy Eagles, so he has to be considered a sleeper. Again, McNabb likes to spread the ball, so there is no telling how good he will be.
38. Devery Henderson (NO)- 23.3 yards per catch in 32 grabs in ‘06 shows his big play potential. He should start in Week 1.
39. Mike Furrey (DET)- 98 receptions, 1,086 yards, 6 TDs. Can he do it again? No.
40. Isaac Bruce (STL)- With Torry Holt’s knee becoming an issue, Bruce may be looked upon to produce more than he has in a while. He still managed 1,000 yards in ‘06.
41. Drew Bennett (STL)- I like Bennett as a Ram. With his TD ability, he could become quite a late round fantasy pick.
42. Muhsin Muhammad (CHI)- Bernard Berrian is the better WR to own, but Muhammad is good enough for a bench spot on your fantasy team.
43. Ronald Curry (OAK)- It remains to be seen whether he or Jerry Porter will emerge as the go to receiver in Oakland’s passing game. My bet is on Curry, but the “go to receiver” in Oakland is not that prestigious of a title.
44. Jerry Porter (OAK)- It will be Porter or Ronald Curry claiming garbage yards at the end of games in Oakland. We should know the story after the first few weeks.
45. Derrick Mason (BAL)- Mason is still Steve McNair’s security blanket, so he should have some decent yardage games. He may only see the end zone once or twice.
46. Joe Horn (ATL)- When he is healthy and plays, he should produce a decent game or two. His age and Joey Harrington make the overall outlook very shady.
47. Patrick Crayton (DAL)- Crayton can play, and he may get a chance to start with Terry Glenn hurting. Tony Romo likes Crayton a lot, and so do I.
48. Tedd Ginn Jr. (MIA)- The rookie will begin the year as the 3rd WR, but he should be starting by mid-season. He will make at least one long TD catch before the season is over.
49. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)- The slot WR in Indy is always an intriguing choice. Peyton Manning seems to like the rookie, and he there is no reason he shouldn’t produce some decent numbers.
50. Dwayne Bowe (KC)- The Chiefs have limited options at WR, so the rookie will get every chance to start the season. He could score 4 or 5 TDs.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Here we go with R&D for the rest of the Week 3 preseason games.

Houston 28 Dallas 16

J. Witten (DAL): 3rec/47yds/1 TD, a nice game for Witten who remains a decent TE choice late in drafts

T. Owens (DAL): 1rec/35yds/1 TD, Owens can still play, but age and the TO factor make me want to go with youth over Owens

P. Crayton (DAL): 2rec/26yds, with Terry Glenn having knee trouble that will likely continue into the regular season, Crayton is a great WR sleeper

J. Jones (HOU): 2rec/26yds/1 TD, 1car/10yds, the rookie is impressing, who also had a 91 yard punt return in this one, he should get more snaps opposite Andre Johnson than Kevin Walter

Jets 20 Giants 12

L. Washington (NYJ): 7car/6yds, 3rec/86yds/1 TD, the TD came on a 79 yard pass down the sidelines which you have probably seen on Sportcenter by now, Washington will hold value all year despite playing behind Thomas Jones, the Jets will look to get him the ball any way they can

E. Manning (NYG): 17-25/146yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, Manning has looked fantastic in the preseason, but he has not faced the blitzing he will during the regular season, there are still reasons for reservation here

Chicago 31 San Francisco 28

C. Benson (CHI): 19car/33yds/1 TD, 1rec/2yds, I am not a Benson fan, and I think there will be a lot more where this came from during the regular season, the fact that he will get the ball a ton and score some TDs bumps his value

A. Peterson (CHI): 6car/27yds/1 TD, 1rec/7yds, the other Adrian Peterson will be heard from this season in Chicago, Benson is likely to get hurt, so Peterson should hold value as a handcuff

B. Berrian (CHI): 3rec/79yds/1 TD, 1car/11yds, Berrian is as talented as they come, it is just a shame that Rex Grossman is his QB, B-squared is still a great mid-late round pick

Seattle 30 Minnesota 13

C. Taylor (MIN): 8car/61yds, there is no reason for owners to forget Taylor as a fantasy factor because of AP, but that seems to be what is happening, Taylor will likely have a few games where he gets 20-30 touches because of a Peterson injury

S. Alexander (SEA): 8car/30yds/1 TD, 1rec/5yds, Alexander will punch in the short ones as he did with a 1-yarder here, but he seems to have left all his long runs back in his record breaking 2005 season

B. Engram (SEA): 4rec/53yds, with all of the D.J. Hackett hype going on, Engram is not being talked about much as a solid slot WR in Seattle, Engram seems to be Hasselbeck’s security blanket in many situations, so don’t be surprised to see him put up better numbers in a few games than both Hackett and Deion Branch

Cleveland 17 Denver 16

J. Lewis (CLE): 15car/46yds/1 TD, 2rec/30yds, he is certainly going to get the ball, he just isn’t like to do much when he gets it, there is no reason to believe he will ever reach 30 yards receiving at any point during the regular season as he did here (yes I’m serious)

B. Quinn (CLE): 7-11/81yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, Quinn has been solid in his two preseason games, but Charlie Frye will get the nod in Week 1, once the Browns lose their first few games, Quinn will get the call

K. Winslow (CLE): 3rec/47yds, if Winslow had any kind of proven QB winging him the pigskin, he would likely end up being the best fantasy TE at year’s end, as it stands, he will just have to settle for garbage yards from Frye and Quinn when the Browns are losing in the 4th quarter, that should still be enough to get him in the top 3

J. Cutler (DEN): 9-16/115yds/1 TD, 2car/6yds, it seems that many people are high on Cutler as a franchise QB, while I am not, if Culter is what I think he’s not, Javon Walker will be huge and Brandon Marshall will justify his sleeper status, I just don’t see it

Vincent Jackson will be the Chargers’ deep threat in ‘07 and is considered by many as the sleeper WR of fantasy drafts.

San Diego 33 Arizona 31

M. Turner (SD): 9car/20yds, 1rec/11yds, Turner suffered a high ankle sprain in this one, which Tomlinson owners need to be aware of, The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting Turner could be questionable for Week 1, so Darren Sproles could end up as LT’s handcuff for the first few games of the regular season

P. Rivers (SD): 20-29/282yds/2 TDs, Rivers looked great in this tune up, but LT never saw the field, which is a good reason why he attempted 29 passes in a preseason game, there will be too much Tomlinson during the regular season and especially in the red zone to allow Rivers to become a solid QB1

V. Jackson (SD): 4rec/92yds/2 TDs, Jackson is going to be Rivers’ other target besides Antonio Gates, and his consistency will highly depend on how much the Chargers and Norv Turner decide to throw the ball, there is no doubt he has a huge upside in 2007

A. Boldin (ARI): 5rec/143yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, there is no better after-the-catch WR in the NFL, he’s too big and too powerful to be brought down by any defensive back alone, Ken Whisenhunt wants to use him as he did Hines Ward in Pittsburgh, which should spell around 10 TDs, don’t be completely shocked to see him used as a RB in some goal line situations

M. Leinart (ARI): 10-16/196yds/1 TD, 2car/4yds, as he goes, Boldin and Fitzgerald will go, I expect solid numbers from the trio in ‘07

Pittsburgh 27 Philadelphia 13

C. Buckhalter (PHI): 10car/43yds, 1rec/1yd, Buckhalter has the talent to produce solid numbers if Westbrook went down, handcuff him if you own BW

W. Parker (PIT): 10car/32yds/1 TD, 3rec/40yds, of the 13 touches Parker had in this game, there was only one that stuck out in my mind, and it wasn’t the TD (18yds), Parker was stuffed and fumbled the ball away on his only goal line touch of the game, I’m growing concerned that the Steelers will use Najeh Davenport inside the 5.

Atlanta 24 Cincinnati 19

C. Johnson (CIN): 5rec/83yds/1 TD, I know it is only the preseason, but CJ absolutely toasted DeAngelo Hall in this one, this is a sign of things to come in ‘07

C. Palmer (CIN): 15-22/136yds/2 TDs, He is going to be huge this year, and when I say huge I mean he might be the #1 ranked fantasy QB when it is all over with, CJ and Housh are just too good to be stopped on a weekly basis

J. Norwood (ATL): 9car/25yds, 2rec/17yds/1 TD, Dunn looked awful, so again, owners shouldn’t be scared to draft Norwood, he is by far the best offensive weapon the Falcons have

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Attention fantasy owners, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has reported today that Rams WR Torry Holt has admitted that his ailing right knee is not completely healthy from postseason surgery. Holt underwent surgery six months ago to repair torn cartilage in his right knee, and was held out of the Rams third preseason game over the weekend because of continued soreness. In the article, Holt made several statements that should steer fantasy owners clear of him in 2007. “It’s just one of those deals where I’m not recovering as quick as I used to,” said Holt, 31. “I have to get used to that and stay patient. … I don’t know if it’ll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.”

There is little doubt that Holt can still play at age 31, but his career season might be in the rear view mirror.

Holt is being drafted as a top 5 WR in fantasy leagues, so his knee being only healthy enough to “go out and play” is not the news his owners want to hear. While at “about 70, 80 percent” as Holt says, he is still one of the better WR in the league, but it makes him too risky of a pick in the first two rounds of any draft. “It feels good some days, and some days it doesn’t feel as good,” Holt said. “I’m getting somewhat used to that and getting to the point where I can manage it pretty well.”

Again, these comments should raise a red flag to owners who have yet to draft their team. Even without the knee problem, Holt has likely lost a step at this point in his career, and I have advised and will continue to advise those who ask to stay away from him this season. You would be much better off taking younger WRs such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, or TJ Houshmandzadeh if you are looking to go WR early in your draft.

I will finish up R&D for Week 3 of the preseason later today.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Here we go with the first half (2nd half tomorrow) of R&D for the 3rd week of the NFL preseason. It was a busy weekend, with many starters playing an entire half. I will highlight a few impact fantasy players from each game.

Packers’ rookie WR James Jones made some noise in Week 3 of the preseason.

Jacksonville 21 Green Bay 13

D. Driver (GB): 3rec/27yds, the story here is not the stats but the foot injury that Driver suffered, the Packers’ official site is reporting that head coach Mike McCarthy is hopeful that he’ll be fine for the opener

B. Jackson (GB): 11car/20yds/1TD, 4rec/23yds, Jackson looked awful running the ball but punched a short one in and had some receiving yards. Morency didn’t play so Jackson looks like the Week 1 starter. Limit your expectations greatly if you plan on drafting him.

J. Jones (GB): 6rec/80yds, with Driver hurt the rookie Jones is looking even more intriguing to fantasy owners, he is still behind Jennings on the depth chart but needs to be handcuffed to Driver right now as insurance

New Orleans 30 Kansas City 7

R. Bush (NO): 6car/51yds, Bush looked great on the ground as the Saints offense looked dynamic, Brees/McAllister/Bush/Colston should all have big seasons

D. Brees (NO): 17-19/182yds/1 TD, Brees was almost flawless and has clearly established himself with Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer as a top 3 QB

B. Croyle (KC): 5-17/45yds/1 INT, with this game went Croyle’s chance to start as Damon Huard was named the starter over the weekend, this news only helps Tony G’s value

L. Moore (NO): 6rec/88yds, Moore is fighting for the 3rd WR position with David Patten, who also had a nice game, this situation is worth keeping an eye on

D. Patten (NO): 6rec/75yds/1TD, Patten is battling Moore for the 3rd WR spot, and reportedly is pushing Devery Henderson for a starting job, my bet is that Henderson will line up opposite Colston in Week 1

Tennessee 28 Buffalo 17

L. White (TEN): 11car/51yds, 3rec/23yds, White might have solidified the starting job for Week 1 with this performance, although it is still expected to be somewhat of a committee at RB for the Titans

C. Brown (TEN): 6car/42yds, 2rec/25yds, with White also having a strong game, Brown will likely be backing up in Week 1, although he should get some looks and steal carries from White

V. Young (TEN): 13-19/162yds/2 TDs, 2car/4yds/1 TD, a great game from Young, and if he can find a way to get the ball downfield during the regular season, he could emerge into a fantasy stud, chances of that happening however are very slim

M. Lynch (BUF): 9car/9yds, 1rec/3yds, this is ugly and he will obviously have to perform better than this during the regular season to ensure he will get 20-25 touches a game

L. Evans (BUF): 5rec/100yds/1 TD, the great game from Evans was highlighted by a 64-yard TD, his big games will continue to be there because of his big play ability but will be inconsistent because of Losman

New England 24 Carolina 7

T. Brady (NE): 17-22/167yds/2 TDs, Just another day at the office for Brady, he has to be taken after Manning, Palmer, and Brees go in your draft

J. Delhomme (CAR): 11-18/162yds/1 TD, Jake still has a firm grasp on the starting job as Carr threw nothing but dump passes and tossed a pick in this one, a good season from Delhomme would really help Steve Smith’s cause

K. Colbert (CAR): 1rec/48yds/1 TD, Colbert will open the season as Carolina’s #2, but how long he remains there will depend on rookie Dwayne Jarrett’s progression

Oakland 20 St. Louis 10

I. Bruce (STL): 4rec/77yds, With Holt having knee problems and sitting this one out, Bruce suddenly is gaining fantasy value, Drew Bennett is the projected #2, but Marc Bulger will still look Bruce’s way enough to keep him off most fantasy FA lists

L. Jordan (OAK): 18car/41yds/1 TD, 1rec/49yds, the show is obviously going to be his for the first 4 weeks of the regular season, if the matchup is right, he could be startable in a pinch

R. Curry (OAK): 3rec/27yds/1 TD, the score came on a 19 yard pass from Culpepper, and I expect these two to hook up a few times during the regular season, Curry won’t put up great numbers, but he should be the go to guy in Oakland’s passing game

Indianapolis 37 Detroit 10

P. Manning (IND): 23-27/233yds/3 TDs, Manning looked to be in regular season form, as he chopped up the Lions in just one half of play, he shouldn’t be slipping to the 2nd round in any draft

R. Wayne (IND): 6rec/70yds/1 TD, the TD came on a 1 yard fade route that Manning placed perfectly, I would take Wayne over Harrison on age alone

M. Harrison (IND): 3rec/33yds/1 TD, you would think he would have to slow down at some point, but until he shows it, he has to be ranked among the top 5 receivers on all draft sheets

T. Bell (DET): 3car/12yds, like Donald Driver, it was his injury (shin) and not his stats that caught attention, but head coach Rod Marinelli said he is going to be fine

Tampa Bay 31 Miami 28

J. Galloway (TB): 2rec/39yds/1 TD, Garcia connected with Galloway on a 26-yard TD in the 2nd quarter, for lack of other options Galloway remains the Bucs #1 wideout

Washington 13 Baltimore 7

D. Mason (BAL): 5rec/31yds/1 TD, he is going to remain Steve McNair’s favorite target, but his fantasy value will still remain limited in a run happy Ravens’ offense

S. Moss (WAS): 1rec/40yds, Moss has just as much big play ability as any WR in the league, and his QB is the only thing slowing him from WR1 status at this point, a solid WR2 in any format

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

My first installment of weekly Research and Development will be coming Monday, August 27 for Week 3 of the NFL preseason. R&D (as I like to call it) is a run through the weekly NFL box scores to check the fantasy developments within each game. I will be doing R&D every Monday during the regular season as well.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Ben Roethlisberger is ready for fantasy football stardom. Yes, you read that right. I know, you have absolutely no reason to believe that Roethlisberger can put up the type of stats necessary to be a fantasy superstar. Well, I’m here to tell you that he can, and he will in 2007.

Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and both fantasy owners and football fans alike are going to see it on display this season. I realize that Roethlisberger had a very poor season for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2006, but in my mind, he gets a free pass. I would like to see Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, or any other great QB in the NFL go through what Big Ben went through prior to the ‘06 season and still have a quality year, because I don’t think it is possible. I’m quite sure that preparing for an NFL season is difficult enough without having to endure a life-threatening motorcycle accident, only to be followed by an emergency appendectomy a week before the first game. The point is clear, and that is the real Ben Roethlisberger never really showed up to play the ‘06 season.

The Steelers plan to open up the offense in ‘07, which will certainly delight Roethlisberger owners.

There are a few reasons why I believe Roethlisberger is going to show up for fantasy owners in a big way in ‘07. For one, as I stated before, Roethlisberger is a great QB. His 98.1 rating in his rookie season and 98.6 rating in his 2005 sophomore and Superbowl winning year prove his excellence on the field. He can throw the deep ball, he can throw the accurate short pass, and he certainly can take off and run if he has to (6 rushing TDs in 3-year career). Second, and you may not want to believe it, but the Steelers are equipped with one of the best offenses in the AFC in ‘07. Not only does Big Ben have Willie Parker running behind him, but he also has several solid receiving weapons to help him boost his stats. “Mr. Reliable” Hines Ward, 2nd year wideout Santonio Holmes, and 3rd year tight end Health Miller will all be beneficial targets for Roethlisberger this season. We all know what Ward can do when healthy, as he still has another 1,000 yard and 10+ TD season left in him. The Steelers’ first round pick in ‘06, Holmes showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last season as well as his deep threat ability over the course of the year. He combined for 214 receiving yards the last two games in ‘06, and also displayed a 16.8 yard per catch average when the season was said and done. While Heath Miller disappointed many fantasy owners in his sophomore season, he still has the talent to get open in the middle of the field, as well as become a great redzone target for Roethlisberger in ‘07.

Having said all of that, Roethlisberger can only be as good for fantasy owners as the opportunities he will get to make plays. While the Steelers made smashmouth football famous under former head coach Bill Cowher (which obviously never helped Roethlisberger’s cause as a fantasy QB), the tide could be changing under new head coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. In a recent USA Today article, Arians mentions that “Ben should light it up” this season, and as Peyton Manning’s first QB coach, he may know a few things about great QBs lighting it up. Also in the article, Roethlisberger talks about how he felt a little constrained by Bill Cowher’s offense last season. “We were so predictable — run on first, run on second, throw on third-and-long — and that killed us,” Roethlisberger said. “Last year, if we took a shot downfield and it was incomplete — or, heaven forbid, intercepted — we weren’t throwing it again for a long time. And since we knew we were only throwing 15-20 times, we were so careful with doing this and that. It will be nice to know that Bruce isn’t going to handcuff us.”

To me, this sounds like an offense that is going to be fine with allowing Roethlisberger to throw the ball 30+ times a game, something that rarely happened under Cowher. All the tools are in place for Big Ben to become a fantasy stud, he just needs the opportunity to chuck the rock, and it appears that he will get the chance in ‘07. He is currently projecting as a 9th round pick (105) in a 12-team league according to ESPN’s average draft sheet. Having a solid QB available this late in the draft allows owners to stack up on the RB and WR position early without having to burn a pick on a QB. I encourage this strategy, as I can see Roethlisberger going for the tune of 3,500+ yards, 25+ passing TDs, and 1-4 rushing TDs.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

103 receptions, 1147 yards receiving, and 5 touchdown catches is a great season for any NFL wide receiver. For Andre Johnson, those 2006 statistics only touched the surface of what is to come from the 6′3 Texans WR in 2007. There is one reason, and one reason only, that superstar fantasy statistics are in Johnson’s future this season. That reason is because David Carr is no longer throwing him the ball, and it is really that simple.

Being the fantasy fanatic that I am, I have probably only missed a handful of NFL games in the last 10 years. In the 4 year span that has been Andre Johnson’s career in Houston, I have failed to find more of a misuse of superstar talent than I have when watching the Texans on the tube every Sunday. It really isn’t the Houston Texans fault as an organization, as I am quite sure they know what they have in Johnson. However, you can only do so much with your superstar wideout when you have a QB as inept as Carr under center.

Johnson often had to become a defender when David Carr attempted to get him the ball downfield. That should all change with Matt Schaub throwing him the ball in ‘07.

Yes, I have heard the excuse that everyone wants to give Carr a million times, and I am just not buying that his offensive line was entirely to blame. He was on his back for most of his career in Houston, not so much because of his poor offensive line, but more because he can’t make quick decisions and can’t read defenses. I’m not saying that Houston has a good offensive line by any means, but you can’t lay 5 years of poor QB play on the o-line.

From a fantasy perspective for Johnson, the problem was more that Carr couldn’t get the ball downfield to an explosive WR that should thrive on the deep pass. While Carr’s QB rating (82.1) improved some last season, it was mainly because his completion percentage was 68.3, which was aided mostly by short dump passes. He only threw 11 TDs compared to 12 interceptions, while the Texans’ coaching staff rarely allowed him to chuck the ball downfield to Johnson, and rightfully so. Here are some mind blowing statistics that show you exactly what I’m talking about. Of the 28 QBs with more than 300 passing attempts in ‘06, only Bruce Gradkowski (5.1), Joey Harrington (5.8), Eli Manning (6.2) Charlie Frye (6.2), and Vince Young (6.2) had a worse yard per completion statistic than Carr (6.3). Of the 20 WRs who had 70 or more receptions in ‘06, Johnson’s 11.1 yards per catch was tied for the lowest along with the Lions’ Mike Furrey. Hey, no disrespect to Furrey, but I don’t think that he displays quite the downfield speed that Johnson does.

Why is this all going to change for Johnson in ‘07? David Carr out, and Matt Schaub in, and again, it is that simple. Yes, Schaub is unproven, but in the short playing time he had in Atlanta, he showed on numerous occasions that he wasn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield. In both his 27 attempts in ‘06 and 64 attempts in ‘05, Schaub averaged 7.7 yards per completion. New head coach Gary Kubiak is not going to be afraid to let Schaub gun the ball downfield to Johnson, which is going to result in more receiving yards and more TDs. The Texans should also be involved in more shootouts than ever, as the defense who finished in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed last season should not improve by much.

In a fantasy year where there is much debate over who the top wideouts in the league are going to be, Johnson has a real chance to make his presence felt. I believe that he will end the ‘07 season as a top 5 fantasy wideout, and it wouldn’t come as a complete shock to see him lead the NFL in both receptions (led league in ‘06) and receiving yards. I certainly believe that he will have a career high in TDs, likely in the 10-12 range. His current average draft position for WRs in ESPN leagues is 16th. You should be able to grab him sometime in the 4th round or early in the 5th, which would be an absolute steal. Whatever you do, don’t miss out on what is going to be a career year for Andre Johnson.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Jon Kitna joined Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Marc Bulger, and Carson Palmer in the 4,000 yard club last season. Not bad company.

He’s turning age 35 in September, but just like 80’s movies, Jon is only getting better with age. This year Jon Kitna “Magic”, as I like to call him, tries to build on his career high 4,208 passing yards with an even more explosive offense that now includes rookie phenom Calvin Johnson and speedster Tatum Bell. Throw in Mike Furrey, Roy Williams, and Kevin Jones (out till week 6) and you have yourself some dangerous weapons. Health permitting and thanks to offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Kitna should have close to 600 passing attempts once again in 2007, and should easily break the 4,000 yard barrier. He’ll definitely throw his fair share of picks, but his TD passes could reach the 30 mark. All in all, he’s a very solid 5th to 6th round QB that predicts to easily earn his value. I’d take him over Matt Hasselbeck, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers without blinking an eye. Detroit is just too poor on defense to expect to win many games, and that leads to a lot of passing to play comeback. Not to mention, the Lions play in a dome which seems to always lead to more high scoring games as opposed to playing in extreme weather conditions. All signs point to yes on #8 in ’07, including him keeping the same suave haircut.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Draft strategy, draft strategy, draft strategy, that is all fantasy football owners want to talk about this time of year. Hey, it makes sense; people want to know what the best draft strategy is when it comes to selecting a competitive fantasy football team. Does the perfect draft strategy exist? My answer is that it does exist, and the key is to simply take the best available player at all times, regardless of position.

I know, you have been told several times that you would be foolish not to select a RB with your first two picks. I’m here to tell you that you are foolish if you abide by that strategy as law. It is true, RBs do win fantasy leagues. However, the huge misconception is that the RBs who win owners fantasy leagues all are going to be drafted in the first two rounds.

Frank Gore is living proof that championship RBs can be found in the later rounds of your draft.

Let’s look at the top 12 total points RBs from a 2006 standard RB scoring league (1pt=10yds rush, 1pt=10yds rec, 6pts=TD) with respect to when they might have been drafted in a 12-team competitive league last season.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson- Top 5
2. Larry Johnson- Top 5
3. Steven Jackson- 1st round
4. Frank Gore- Middle or late round
5. Willie Parker- 2nd round
6. Brian Westbrook- 1st or 2nd round
7. Maurice Jones-Drew- Late round or undrafted
8. Rudi Johnson- 1st round
9. Ladell Betts- Late round or undrafted
10. Joseph Addai- 3rd to 6th round
11. Chester Taylor- 3rd to 6th round
12. Deuce McAllister- 2nd to 5th round

Of the 12, only Tomlinson, Johnson, Johnson, and Jackson were almost certainly 1st round picks. Of the remaining 8, only Parker and Westbrook were likely a 2nd round choice, which means that half of the top 12 RB total point producers from ‘06 most likely weren’t selected in the first two rounds of your draft last season. The point is that you can find RB talent past the first two rounds if you play your cards correctly, leaving you the opportunity to draft upper echelon players at other positions in earlier rounds.

Here is how I would apply my “best player available” strategy for the first few rounds of your draft. Now, if you are slotted somewhere from 1 to 7 in your draft, the best available player is most likely going to be a RB. There aren’t any players I would take over Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, Addai, Johnson, Westbrook, or Parker. However, if you are slotted from 7 to 12 in a 12-team league, I believe that the “best available player” will start to vary in position.

At pick 8 to 12, and especially from 12 back to 8, owners applying the two RB rule are going to start overreaching out of desperation to fill the RB position. If you are smart, you will cash on their mistakes. They will bypass sure fire players like Peyton Manning (my #1 ranked QB), Carson Palmer (my #2 ranked QB), and Chad Johnson (my #1 ranked WR) for overrated RBs like Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry. My advice is to take players that you know are going to perform week in and week out for your team. Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry could all have great ‘07 seasons, but Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Chad Johnson will have great ‘07 seasons. If you went with McGahee, Brown, or Henry over Manning, Palmer, or Johnson, you wouldn’t be taking the best available player, and your team will ultimately suffer because of it.

To the owners who are convinced that RBs like McGahee and Brown aren’t overreaches in the late 1st or early 2nd round, I’ll explain to you why they are. McGahee is averaging the 13th overall pick in ESPN leagues as of today, while Brandon Jacobs is averaging the 35th overall pick. I hate to break it to you McGahee fans, but these guys are virtually the same fantasy player. They both will get goal line carries in a relatively weak offense, they both will likely be replaced on 3rd downs, and they both are going to average around the same amount of carries per game. The hype on McGahee is just that, hype. There is no reason, based on both statistics and brain power, that McGahee should be going 22 slots ahead of Jacobs. Let’s compare Ronnie Brown and Jerious Norwood. How much difference is there in the two RBs going into the season? They are both young with raw talent, they both play in terrible offenses, and they will both get the ball. Why is Brown being picked 15th, while Norwood is being taken 50th? I’ll tell you why, it is the two RB rule getting the best of nervous owners early in the draft.

I’ll finish this off by saying that I have drafted every possible way, with every possible strategy. Having said that, my most competitive teams always come by simply drafting the best player available, regardless of position. Trust me; it is the way to go.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.