Fantasy Football

Thought for certain to begin the season on the Lions’ PUP (physically unable to perform) list, the Detroit Free Press is now reporting that the team will choose to allow running back Kevin Jones to join the active roster. Leaving him on the PUP list would have kept him off the field until at least week 7, with Tatum Bell taking the bulk of the work until then.

Jones will not be shut down for the first half of the season as originally thought.

While it is uncertain how (or if) Jones will be used in Week 1, at least the option is now available. Jones, whose season ended prematurely in 2006 because of a Lisfranc injury (foot), has not practiced yet this preseason. Because he is not in game shape, he is unlikely to play a major role in the offense for the first few weeks.

However, this changes the prospects of fantasy draft boards. Jones needs to be moved up draft sheets, while Tatum Bell needs to slide a bit. It is very possible that Jones will be starting by the third of fourth game of the season. As long as his foot is healthy and he regains his game shape, he has the ability to be a huge fantasy factor at the RB position once again.

I will squeeze in my QB rankings today and my bust and sleeper picks tomorrow for those of you with Labor Day weekend drafts. Here we go with my top 25 QBs.

1. Peyton Manning (Ind)- He’s consistent, durable, smart, and plays in too good of an offense not to be the first QB taken off the board.
2. Carson Palmer (Cin)- Believe it or not, Palmer actually throws the best ball in the NFL. No one is as field smart as Peyton, but Palmer is just as good as him in the arm strength and accuracy department.

Brees led the NFL with 4,418 passing yards in ‘06. He should be a lock to eclipse the 4,000 yard mark once again in ‘07.

3. Drew Brees (NO)- Their defense will still give up points and Brees has all the weapons to keep up in the shootouts. There is no reason why he shouldn’t repeat last season.
4. Tom Brady (NE)- I like Brady behind the other 3 because the Patriots should be winning most of their games in the 4th quarter, which will be clock killing time. He just isn’t as likely to get hooked up in wild ones as the top 3.
5. Marc Bulger (Stl)- After the big 4, I am not sure I would take a QB for a while. However, if I was forced to choose one, I would go with Bulger.
6. Donovan McNabb (Phi)- He has looked great in the preseason, and to be honest the knee shouldn’t change his game much because he had stopped running prior to the injury anyway.
7. Philip Rivers (SD)- He should only get better and LT will put him in position to throw 25+ TDs.
8. Jon Kitna (Det)- Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Mike Martz are 4 reasons for success. He should be playing from behind a lot as well.
9. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea)- I think Seattle’s offense is overrated, so I’m not extremely high on Hasselbeck. He’s still a quality QB however.
10. Matt Leinart (Ari)- He obviously has the weapons, he just needs to show some progression in his 2nd season. I think he will, and I expect a solid season.
11. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)- As many of you know, I love Big Ben this year. He will bounce back huge from his disappointing 2006 season.
12. Tono Romo (Dal)- Some think Romo will regress this season, but I disagree. I like how he moves in the pocket and he’s fairly accurate. He’s not a bad QB1 and a great QB2.
13. Vince Young (Ten)- He needs to make huge plays on the ground to avoid a bust sophomore season, which he probably will do. However, the Titans just don’t have enough at WR to help his passing TD total. I would avoid him, especially in 6 point passing TD leagues.
14. Alex Smith (SF)- We will know if Alex Smith was worth the 1st overall pick for the 49ers this season. They went out and got him some weapons at WR and Frank Gore will help the offense move the ball once again. There is really no excuse for a poor season.
15. Jay Cutler (Den)- Sorry, I’m not a fan. Sure, he has a cannon arm, but so did Kerry Collins. Like Alex Smith, he really won’t have an excuse for a poor season, as the Broncos have plenty of talent surrounding him. Take him at your own risk.
16. Matt Schaub (Hou)- Schaub is going undrafted in many leagues, and that is ridiculous. He is well worth a late round pick as a QB2 or QB3. He is my sleeper QB of this year.
17. Eli Manning (NYG)- It is a make or break season for Eli in New York. I’m predicting break, as his beyond pathetic performance in last season’s wildcard game against Philly was enough to show me he’ll never live up to his name.
18. Jeff Garcia (TB)- Jon Gruden likes Garcia, and he should give him plenty of opportunities to make plays.
19. Brett Favre (GB)- This should be his last season, and it likely won’t be anything more than an average one.
20. Jake Delhomme (Car)- His play has really dropped off in the last couple of years, and this will be his last season in Carolina if it continues. I think he will improve.
21. J.P. Losman (Buf)- For the record, Losman is not good… at all. However, Lee Evans is great, and he’ll make enough huge plays to allow Losman to sneak in some good games.
22. Rex Grossman (Chi)- He’s young and could improve, which is why he makes the top 25. The odds aren’t good however.
23. JaMarcus Russell (OAK)- If he ever signs, it won’t take but a few games before he’s thrown to the wolves. He could be valuable the second half of the season.
24. Brady Quinn (Cle)- It shouldn’t be more than 4 or 5 games before Quinn takes over. At that point, the Browns should be close to winless and it will be Brady’s turn. He has Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to work with, so he is not without weapons.
25. Chad Pennington (NYJ)- He makes the final spot because I believe Pennington still has potential to be above average. He’s never going to be a fantasy superstar, but he can be good enough to store on your bench.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Upon request, I will toss out my top 50 WR rankings for the few of you left who still have drafting to do.

1. Chad Johnson (CIN)- Palmer is due for his career year, which bodes well for CJ. He was in top form Monday night when he toasted Falcons’ corner DeAngelo Hall on numerous occasions.
2. Reggie Wayne (IND)- He is only getting better and Peyton Manning knows it. The favoritism of Manning has to be passed from Harrison to Wayne sometime soon.
3. Steve Smith (CAR)- If Jake Delhomme was playing better, Smith would be my #1. He is the most explosive WR in the NFL, bar none.
4. Marvin Harrison (IND)- Is there any reason to believe he won’t be a top 5 WR once again?

Houshmanzilly, don’t be afraid to put him on the board…..championship.

5. TJ Houshmandzadeh (CIN)- He just keeps moving up my board, and for good reason. You do realize he would have lead the NFL in receptions in ‘06 had he not missed 2 games? 90 catches in 14 games, and Palmer loves to look to him inside the 10-yard line. Take him with confidence.
6. Anquan Boldin (ARI)- He is falling way too far in drafts. He is the most dominate WR in the league after the catch, as defenders can’t bring him down. Ken Whisenhunt wants to use him as a RB in some formations, which adds to his value. Ken would be smart to do so.
7. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)- Fitzgerald and Boldin go hand in hand. You can’t go wrong with either one, but there is no reason Larry should be going 8 WR ahead of Anquan in drafts (ESPN average). Can someone give me the logic on that?
8. Torry Holt (STL)- If it weren’t for his knee trouble, he would be in the top 5. I have to admit, I’m very concerned. I would steer clear.
9. Andre Johnson (HOU)- I have said it once and will say it again, he’s going to be huge in ‘07. He probably had himself a party when he found out the Texans weren’t bringing David Carr back.
10. Terrell Owens (DAL)- He can still play, but I worry about him both getting injured and/or punching a coach. He is capable of both.
11. Roy Williams (DET)- If he wasn’t so injury prone he would be higher on the list. When he is on the field he will put up great numbers.
12. Marques Colston (NO)- Drew Brees loves Colston, and he was just too good in ‘06 to be a fluke.
13. Randy Moss (NE)- Here is the ultimate wildcard. He has lost a step, I don’t care what he says. However, he has never had a QB as good as Tom Brady slinging him the ball, so the two cancel each other out. It could be feast or famine.
14. Javon Walker (DEN)- If I was a fan of Jay Cutler, Walker would make my top 10. However, I am not, so he is here.
15. Lee Evans (BUF)- I almost feel as sorry for Evans as I did for Andre Johnson while David Carr was in Houston. JP Losman is terrible, but Evans is awesome.
16. Hines Ward (PIT)- Ben Roethlisberger will be much better, as I have alluded to, so Hines Ward will as well. Ward has one great season left in him.
17. Plaxico Burress (NYG)- Eli Manning will not improve, but he is just good enough to get Plax the ball when need be. He should have around the same stats as ‘06, which is just fine.
18. Donald Driver (GB)- While I was extremely high on him prior to last season, I am extremely low on him this year, even before his foot injury. He is coming off of a career year, and I just can’t see him staying healthy.
19. Santana Moss (WAS)- He will make big plays and have huge weeks, so he can’t be ranked too low. Jason Campbell will make or break him.
20. Calvin Johnson (DET)- He is in the right situation to back up the hype. I don’t see anything but an above average season or better from the rook.
21. Darrell Jackson (SF)- He continues to have injury problems and now has downgraded at QB. He’s still good enough to draft as a WR2 or WR3.
22. Deion Brach (SEA)- Darrell Jackson’s loss is Branch’s gain. He should get plenty of looks from Matt Hasselbeck.
23. Reggie Brown (PHI)- Like Tom Brady, McNabb loves to spread the ball around. I’m just not as high on Brown as some are, but he should still have a decent season.
24. Donte’ Stallworth (NE)- Stallworth should benefit from defenses worrying about Randy Moss. He needs to stay healthy to be a factor, which as been his strong suit.
25. Bernard Berrian (CHI)- Berrian can’t reach his full potential because of Rex Grossman, but he’s too talented not to put up some good numbers anyway.
26. Vincent Jackson (SD)- When Gates isn’t targeted in the passing game, Jackson will. He has red zone skills and deep play ability that should result in solid numbers.
27. Chris Chambers (MIA)- Recent reports have Chambers being shopped in the trade market, but it looks as if he will stay. If I were him, I would want out. Trent Green shouldn’t do him any justice this season.
28. Laveranues Coles (NYJ)- He’ll likely be on the injury report every week and but manage to play. His could get to 1,000 yards but his TD total will be very low.
29. Mark Clayton (BAL)- I never thought I would say this, but Clayton would be better off with Kyle Boller throwing him the ball. Steve McNair can’t get Clayton the ball deep down the field and that is where he should make his killing.
30. Braylon Edwards (CLE)- Edwards will be inconsistent because of his QB play, but he has the skills to be a solid fantasy producer. Maybe once Brady Quinn gets settled in, Edwards can be big down the stretch.
31. Joey Galloway (TB)- He’s 35, but he still has plenty of speed. Had a 17.0 yard per catch average in ‘06. Jeff Garcia could ensure that he has one more 1,000 yard season.
32. Santonio Holmes (PIT)- Showed signs of growth toward the end of last season. He should be good for a few 50+ yard TDs this season as Big Ben’s only deep threat.
33. Greg Jennings (GB)- With Donald Driver banged up, Jennings should move up on draft sheets. Brett Favre believes in Jennings, and should look his way plenty again this year.
34. Terry Glenn (DAL)- He would be higher, but he’s having knee trouble that he may not recover from. It is probably better to stay away and grab Patrick Crayton instead.
35. D.J. Hackett (SEA)- Hackett will get his first chance to start in Seattle in ‘07. Many feel that his is going to have a big season, but I am a little more reserved.
36. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)- He will only be valuable if he becomes targeted more than Coles. I just don’t believe Pennington is good enough to make both of them fantasy factors once again.
37. Kevin Curtis (PHI)- He is now starting for the normally pass happy Eagles, so he has to be considered a sleeper. Again, McNabb likes to spread the ball, so there is no telling how good he will be.
38. Devery Henderson (NO)- 23.3 yards per catch in 32 grabs in ‘06 shows his big play potential. He should start in Week 1.
39. Mike Furrey (DET)- 98 receptions, 1,086 yards, 6 TDs. Can he do it again? No.
40. Isaac Bruce (STL)- With Torry Holt’s knee becoming an issue, Bruce may be looked upon to produce more than he has in a while. He still managed 1,000 yards in ‘06.
41. Drew Bennett (STL)- I like Bennett as a Ram. With his TD ability, he could become quite a late round fantasy pick.
42. Muhsin Muhammad (CHI)- Bernard Berrian is the better WR to own, but Muhammad is good enough for a bench spot on your fantasy team.
43. Ronald Curry (OAK)- It remains to be seen whether he or Jerry Porter will emerge as the go to receiver in Oakland’s passing game. My bet is on Curry, but the “go to receiver” in Oakland is not that prestigious of a title.
44. Jerry Porter (OAK)- It will be Porter or Ronald Curry claiming garbage yards at the end of games in Oakland. We should know the story after the first few weeks.
45. Derrick Mason (BAL)- Mason is still Steve McNair’s security blanket, so he should have some decent yardage games. He may only see the end zone once or twice.
46. Joe Horn (ATL)- When he is healthy and plays, he should produce a decent game or two. His age and Joey Harrington make the overall outlook very shady.
47. Patrick Crayton (DAL)- Crayton can play, and he may get a chance to start with Terry Glenn hurting. Tony Romo likes Crayton a lot, and so do I.
48. Tedd Ginn Jr. (MIA)- The rookie will begin the year as the 3rd WR, but he should be starting by mid-season. He will make at least one long TD catch before the season is over.
49. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)- The slot WR in Indy is always an intriguing choice. Peyton Manning seems to like the rookie, and he there is no reason he shouldn’t produce some decent numbers.
50. Dwayne Bowe (KC)- The Chiefs have limited options at WR, so the rookie will get every chance to start the season. He could score 4 or 5 TDs.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Here we go with R&D for the rest of the Week 3 preseason games.

Houston 28 Dallas 16

J. Witten (DAL): 3rec/47yds/1 TD, a nice game for Witten who remains a decent TE choice late in drafts

T. Owens (DAL): 1rec/35yds/1 TD, Owens can still play, but age and the TO factor make me want to go with youth over Owens

P. Crayton (DAL): 2rec/26yds, with Terry Glenn having knee trouble that will likely continue into the regular season, Crayton is a great WR sleeper

J. Jones (HOU): 2rec/26yds/1 TD, 1car/10yds, the rookie is impressing, who also had a 91 yard punt return in this one, he should get more snaps opposite Andre Johnson than Kevin Walter

Jets 20 Giants 12

L. Washington (NYJ): 7car/6yds, 3rec/86yds/1 TD, the TD came on a 79 yard pass down the sidelines which you have probably seen on Sportcenter by now, Washington will hold value all year despite playing behind Thomas Jones, the Jets will look to get him the ball any way they can

E. Manning (NYG): 17-25/146yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, Manning has looked fantastic in the preseason, but he has not faced the blitzing he will during the regular season, there are still reasons for reservation here

Chicago 31 San Francisco 28

C. Benson (CHI): 19car/33yds/1 TD, 1rec/2yds, I am not a Benson fan, and I think there will be a lot more where this came from during the regular season, the fact that he will get the ball a ton and score some TDs bumps his value

A. Peterson (CHI): 6car/27yds/1 TD, 1rec/7yds, the other Adrian Peterson will be heard from this season in Chicago, Benson is likely to get hurt, so Peterson should hold value as a handcuff

B. Berrian (CHI): 3rec/79yds/1 TD, 1car/11yds, Berrian is as talented as they come, it is just a shame that Rex Grossman is his QB, B-squared is still a great mid-late round pick

Seattle 30 Minnesota 13

C. Taylor (MIN): 8car/61yds, there is no reason for owners to forget Taylor as a fantasy factor because of AP, but that seems to be what is happening, Taylor will likely have a few games where he gets 20-30 touches because of a Peterson injury

S. Alexander (SEA): 8car/30yds/1 TD, 1rec/5yds, Alexander will punch in the short ones as he did with a 1-yarder here, but he seems to have left all his long runs back in his record breaking 2005 season

B. Engram (SEA): 4rec/53yds, with all of the D.J. Hackett hype going on, Engram is not being talked about much as a solid slot WR in Seattle, Engram seems to be Hasselbeck’s security blanket in many situations, so don’t be surprised to see him put up better numbers in a few games than both Hackett and Deion Branch

Cleveland 17 Denver 16

J. Lewis (CLE): 15car/46yds/1 TD, 2rec/30yds, he is certainly going to get the ball, he just isn’t like to do much when he gets it, there is no reason to believe he will ever reach 30 yards receiving at any point during the regular season as he did here (yes I’m serious)

B. Quinn (CLE): 7-11/81yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, Quinn has been solid in his two preseason games, but Charlie Frye will get the nod in Week 1, once the Browns lose their first few games, Quinn will get the call

K. Winslow (CLE): 3rec/47yds, if Winslow had any kind of proven QB winging him the pigskin, he would likely end up being the best fantasy TE at year’s end, as it stands, he will just have to settle for garbage yards from Frye and Quinn when the Browns are losing in the 4th quarter, that should still be enough to get him in the top 3

J. Cutler (DEN): 9-16/115yds/1 TD, 2car/6yds, it seems that many people are high on Cutler as a franchise QB, while I am not, if Culter is what I think he’s not, Javon Walker will be huge and Brandon Marshall will justify his sleeper status, I just don’t see it

Vincent Jackson will be the Chargers’ deep threat in ‘07 and is considered by many as the sleeper WR of fantasy drafts.

San Diego 33 Arizona 31

M. Turner (SD): 9car/20yds, 1rec/11yds, Turner suffered a high ankle sprain in this one, which Tomlinson owners need to be aware of, The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting Turner could be questionable for Week 1, so Darren Sproles could end up as LT’s handcuff for the first few games of the regular season

P. Rivers (SD): 20-29/282yds/2 TDs, Rivers looked great in this tune up, but LT never saw the field, which is a good reason why he attempted 29 passes in a preseason game, there will be too much Tomlinson during the regular season and especially in the red zone to allow Rivers to become a solid QB1

V. Jackson (SD): 4rec/92yds/2 TDs, Jackson is going to be Rivers’ other target besides Antonio Gates, and his consistency will highly depend on how much the Chargers and Norv Turner decide to throw the ball, there is no doubt he has a huge upside in 2007

A. Boldin (ARI): 5rec/143yds/1 TD, 1car/2yds, there is no better after-the-catch WR in the NFL, he’s too big and too powerful to be brought down by any defensive back alone, Ken Whisenhunt wants to use him as he did Hines Ward in Pittsburgh, which should spell around 10 TDs, don’t be completely shocked to see him used as a RB in some goal line situations

M. Leinart (ARI): 10-16/196yds/1 TD, 2car/4yds, as he goes, Boldin and Fitzgerald will go, I expect solid numbers from the trio in ‘07

Pittsburgh 27 Philadelphia 13

C. Buckhalter (PHI): 10car/43yds, 1rec/1yd, Buckhalter has the talent to produce solid numbers if Westbrook went down, handcuff him if you own BW

W. Parker (PIT): 10car/32yds/1 TD, 3rec/40yds, of the 13 touches Parker had in this game, there was only one that stuck out in my mind, and it wasn’t the TD (18yds), Parker was stuffed and fumbled the ball away on his only goal line touch of the game, I’m growing concerned that the Steelers will use Najeh Davenport inside the 5.

Atlanta 24 Cincinnati 19

C. Johnson (CIN): 5rec/83yds/1 TD, I know it is only the preseason, but CJ absolutely toasted DeAngelo Hall in this one, this is a sign of things to come in ‘07

C. Palmer (CIN): 15-22/136yds/2 TDs, He is going to be huge this year, and when I say huge I mean he might be the #1 ranked fantasy QB when it is all over with, CJ and Housh are just too good to be stopped on a weekly basis

J. Norwood (ATL): 9car/25yds, 2rec/17yds/1 TD, Dunn looked awful, so again, owners shouldn’t be scared to draft Norwood, he is by far the best offensive weapon the Falcons have

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Attention fantasy owners, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has reported today that Rams WR Torry Holt has admitted that his ailing right knee is not completely healthy from postseason surgery. Holt underwent surgery six months ago to repair torn cartilage in his right knee, and was held out of the Rams third preseason game over the weekend because of continued soreness. In the article, Holt made several statements that should steer fantasy owners clear of him in 2007. “It’s just one of those deals where I’m not recovering as quick as I used to,” said Holt, 31. “I have to get used to that and stay patient. … I don’t know if it’ll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.”

There is little doubt that Holt can still play at age 31, but his career season might be in the rear view mirror.

Holt is being drafted as a top 5 WR in fantasy leagues, so his knee being only healthy enough to “go out and play” is not the news his owners want to hear. While at “about 70, 80 percent” as Holt says, he is still one of the better WR in the league, but it makes him too risky of a pick in the first two rounds of any draft. “It feels good some days, and some days it doesn’t feel as good,” Holt said. “I’m getting somewhat used to that and getting to the point where I can manage it pretty well.”

Again, these comments should raise a red flag to owners who have yet to draft their team. Even without the knee problem, Holt has likely lost a step at this point in his career, and I have advised and will continue to advise those who ask to stay away from him this season. You would be much better off taking younger WRs such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, or TJ Houshmandzadeh if you are looking to go WR early in your draft.

I will finish up R&D for Week 3 of the preseason later today.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Here we go with the first half (2nd half tomorrow) of R&D for the 3rd week of the NFL preseason. It was a busy weekend, with many starters playing an entire half. I will highlight a few impact fantasy players from each game.

Packers’ rookie WR James Jones made some noise in Week 3 of the preseason.

Jacksonville 21 Green Bay 13

D. Driver (GB): 3rec/27yds, the story here is not the stats but the foot injury that Driver suffered, the Packers’ official site is reporting that head coach Mike McCarthy is hopeful that he’ll be fine for the opener

B. Jackson (GB): 11car/20yds/1TD, 4rec/23yds, Jackson looked awful running the ball but punched a short one in and had some receiving yards. Morency didn’t play so Jackson looks like the Week 1 starter. Limit your expectations greatly if you plan on drafting him.

J. Jones (GB): 6rec/80yds, with Driver hurt the rookie Jones is looking even more intriguing to fantasy owners, he is still behind Jennings on the depth chart but needs to be handcuffed to Driver right now as insurance

New Orleans 30 Kansas City 7

R. Bush (NO): 6car/51yds, Bush looked great on the ground as the Saints offense looked dynamic, Brees/McAllister/Bush/Colston should all have big seasons

D. Brees (NO): 17-19/182yds/1 TD, Brees was almost flawless and has clearly established himself with Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer as a top 3 QB

B. Croyle (KC): 5-17/45yds/1 INT, with this game went Croyle’s chance to start as Damon Huard was named the starter over the weekend, this news only helps Tony G’s value

L. Moore (NO): 6rec/88yds, Moore is fighting for the 3rd WR position with David Patten, who also had a nice game, this situation is worth keeping an eye on

D. Patten (NO): 6rec/75yds/1TD, Patten is battling Moore for the 3rd WR spot, and reportedly is pushing Devery Henderson for a starting job, my bet is that Henderson will line up opposite Colston in Week 1

Tennessee 28 Buffalo 17

L. White (TEN): 11car/51yds, 3rec/23yds, White might have solidified the starting job for Week 1 with this performance, although it is still expected to be somewhat of a committee at RB for the Titans

C. Brown (TEN): 6car/42yds, 2rec/25yds, with White also having a strong game, Brown will likely be backing up in Week 1, although he should get some looks and steal carries from White

V. Young (TEN): 13-19/162yds/2 TDs, 2car/4yds/1 TD, a great game from Young, and if he can find a way to get the ball downfield during the regular season, he could emerge into a fantasy stud, chances of that happening however are very slim

M. Lynch (BUF): 9car/9yds, 1rec/3yds, this is ugly and he will obviously have to perform better than this during the regular season to ensure he will get 20-25 touches a game

L. Evans (BUF): 5rec/100yds/1 TD, the great game from Evans was highlighted by a 64-yard TD, his big games will continue to be there because of his big play ability but will be inconsistent because of Losman

New England 24 Carolina 7

T. Brady (NE): 17-22/167yds/2 TDs, Just another day at the office for Brady, he has to be taken after Manning, Palmer, and Brees go in your draft

J. Delhomme (CAR): 11-18/162yds/1 TD, Jake still has a firm grasp on the starting job as Carr threw nothing but dump passes and tossed a pick in this one, a good season from Delhomme would really help Steve Smith’s cause

K. Colbert (CAR): 1rec/48yds/1 TD, Colbert will open the season as Carolina’s #2, but how long he remains there will depend on rookie Dwayne Jarrett’s progression

Oakland 20 St. Louis 10

I. Bruce (STL): 4rec/77yds, With Holt having knee problems and sitting this one out, Bruce suddenly is gaining fantasy value, Drew Bennett is the projected #2, but Marc Bulger will still look Bruce’s way enough to keep him off most fantasy FA lists

L. Jordan (OAK): 18car/41yds/1 TD, 1rec/49yds, the show is obviously going to be his for the first 4 weeks of the regular season, if the matchup is right, he could be startable in a pinch

R. Curry (OAK): 3rec/27yds/1 TD, the score came on a 19 yard pass from Culpepper, and I expect these two to hook up a few times during the regular season, Curry won’t put up great numbers, but he should be the go to guy in Oakland’s passing game

Indianapolis 37 Detroit 10

P. Manning (IND): 23-27/233yds/3 TDs, Manning looked to be in regular season form, as he chopped up the Lions in just one half of play, he shouldn’t be slipping to the 2nd round in any draft

R. Wayne (IND): 6rec/70yds/1 TD, the TD came on a 1 yard fade route that Manning placed perfectly, I would take Wayne over Harrison on age alone

M. Harrison (IND): 3rec/33yds/1 TD, you would think he would have to slow down at some point, but until he shows it, he has to be ranked among the top 5 receivers on all draft sheets

T. Bell (DET): 3car/12yds, like Donald Driver, it was his injury (shin) and not his stats that caught attention, but head coach Rod Marinelli said he is going to be fine

Tampa Bay 31 Miami 28

J. Galloway (TB): 2rec/39yds/1 TD, Garcia connected with Galloway on a 26-yard TD in the 2nd quarter, for lack of other options Galloway remains the Bucs #1 wideout

Washington 13 Baltimore 7

D. Mason (BAL): 5rec/31yds/1 TD, he is going to remain Steve McNair’s favorite target, but his fantasy value will still remain limited in a run happy Ravens’ offense

S. Moss (WAS): 1rec/40yds, Moss has just as much big play ability as any WR in the league, and his QB is the only thing slowing him from WR1 status at this point, a solid WR2 in any format

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

My first installment of weekly Research and Development will be coming Monday, August 27 for Week 3 of the NFL preseason. R&D (as I like to call it) is a run through the weekly NFL box scores to check the fantasy developments within each game. I will be doing R&D every Monday during the regular season as well.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Ben Roethlisberger is ready for fantasy football stardom. Yes, you read that right. I know, you have absolutely no reason to believe that Roethlisberger can put up the type of stats necessary to be a fantasy superstar. Well, I’m here to tell you that he can, and he will in 2007.

Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and both fantasy owners and football fans alike are going to see it on display this season. I realize that Roethlisberger had a very poor season for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2006, but in my mind, he gets a free pass. I would like to see Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, or any other great QB in the NFL go through what Big Ben went through prior to the ‘06 season and still have a quality year, because I don’t think it is possible. I’m quite sure that preparing for an NFL season is difficult enough without having to endure a life-threatening motorcycle accident, only to be followed by an emergency appendectomy a week before the first game. The point is clear, and that is the real Ben Roethlisberger never really showed up to play the ‘06 season.

The Steelers plan to open up the offense in ‘07, which will certainly delight Roethlisberger owners.

There are a few reasons why I believe Roethlisberger is going to show up for fantasy owners in a big way in ‘07. For one, as I stated before, Roethlisberger is a great QB. His 98.1 rating in his rookie season and 98.6 rating in his 2005 sophomore and Superbowl winning year prove his excellence on the field. He can throw the deep ball, he can throw the accurate short pass, and he certainly can take off and run if he has to (6 rushing TDs in 3-year career). Second, and you may not want to believe it, but the Steelers are equipped with one of the best offenses in the AFC in ‘07. Not only does Big Ben have Willie Parker running behind him, but he also has several solid receiving weapons to help him boost his stats. “Mr. Reliable” Hines Ward, 2nd year wideout Santonio Holmes, and 3rd year tight end Health Miller will all be beneficial targets for Roethlisberger this season. We all know what Ward can do when healthy, as he still has another 1,000 yard and 10+ TD season left in him. The Steelers’ first round pick in ‘06, Holmes showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last season as well as his deep threat ability over the course of the year. He combined for 214 receiving yards the last two games in ‘06, and also displayed a 16.8 yard per catch average when the season was said and done. While Heath Miller disappointed many fantasy owners in his sophomore season, he still has the talent to get open in the middle of the field, as well as become a great redzone target for Roethlisberger in ‘07.

Having said all of that, Roethlisberger can only be as good for fantasy owners as the opportunities he will get to make plays. While the Steelers made smashmouth football famous under former head coach Bill Cowher (which obviously never helped Roethlisberger’s cause as a fantasy QB), the tide could be changing under new head coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. In a recent USA Today article, Arians mentions that “Ben should light it up” this season, and as Peyton Manning’s first QB coach, he may know a few things about great QBs lighting it up. Also in the article, Roethlisberger talks about how he felt a little constrained by Bill Cowher’s offense last season. “We were so predictable — run on first, run on second, throw on third-and-long — and that killed us,” Roethlisberger said. “Last year, if we took a shot downfield and it was incomplete — or, heaven forbid, intercepted — we weren’t throwing it again for a long time. And since we knew we were only throwing 15-20 times, we were so careful with doing this and that. It will be nice to know that Bruce isn’t going to handcuff us.”

To me, this sounds like an offense that is going to be fine with allowing Roethlisberger to throw the ball 30+ times a game, something that rarely happened under Cowher. All the tools are in place for Big Ben to become a fantasy stud, he just needs the opportunity to chuck the rock, and it appears that he will get the chance in ‘07. He is currently projecting as a 9th round pick (105) in a 12-team league according to ESPN’s average draft sheet. Having a solid QB available this late in the draft allows owners to stack up on the RB and WR position early without having to burn a pick on a QB. I encourage this strategy, as I can see Roethlisberger going for the tune of 3,500+ yards, 25+ passing TDs, and 1-4 rushing TDs.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

103 receptions, 1147 yards receiving, and 5 touchdown catches is a great season for any NFL wide receiver. For Andre Johnson, those 2006 statistics only touched the surface of what is to come from the 6′3 Texans WR in 2007. There is one reason, and one reason only, that superstar fantasy statistics are in Johnson’s future this season. That reason is because David Carr is no longer throwing him the ball, and it is really that simple.

Being the fantasy fanatic that I am, I have probably only missed a handful of NFL games in the last 10 years. In the 4 year span that has been Andre Johnson’s career in Houston, I have failed to find more of a misuse of superstar talent than I have when watching the Texans on the tube every Sunday. It really isn’t the Houston Texans fault as an organization, as I am quite sure they know what they have in Johnson. However, you can only do so much with your superstar wideout when you have a QB as inept as Carr under center.

Johnson often had to become a defender when David Carr attempted to get him the ball downfield. That should all change with Matt Schaub throwing him the ball in ‘07.

Yes, I have heard the excuse that everyone wants to give Carr a million times, and I am just not buying that his offensive line was entirely to blame. He was on his back for most of his career in Houston, not so much because of his poor offensive line, but more because he can’t make quick decisions and can’t read defenses. I’m not saying that Houston has a good offensive line by any means, but you can’t lay 5 years of poor QB play on the o-line.

From a fantasy perspective for Johnson, the problem was more that Carr couldn’t get the ball downfield to an explosive WR that should thrive on the deep pass. While Carr’s QB rating (82.1) improved some last season, it was mainly because his completion percentage was 68.3, which was aided mostly by short dump passes. He only threw 11 TDs compared to 12 interceptions, while the Texans’ coaching staff rarely allowed him to chuck the ball downfield to Johnson, and rightfully so. Here are some mind blowing statistics that show you exactly what I’m talking about. Of the 28 QBs with more than 300 passing attempts in ‘06, only Bruce Gradkowski (5.1), Joey Harrington (5.8), Eli Manning (6.2) Charlie Frye (6.2), and Vince Young (6.2) had a worse yard per completion statistic than Carr (6.3). Of the 20 WRs who had 70 or more receptions in ‘06, Johnson’s 11.1 yards per catch was tied for the lowest along with the Lions’ Mike Furrey. Hey, no disrespect to Furrey, but I don’t think that he displays quite the downfield speed that Johnson does.

Why is this all going to change for Johnson in ‘07? David Carr out, and Matt Schaub in, and again, it is that simple. Yes, Schaub is unproven, but in the short playing time he had in Atlanta, he showed on numerous occasions that he wasn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield. In both his 27 attempts in ‘06 and 64 attempts in ‘05, Schaub averaged 7.7 yards per completion. New head coach Gary Kubiak is not going to be afraid to let Schaub gun the ball downfield to Johnson, which is going to result in more receiving yards and more TDs. The Texans should also be involved in more shootouts than ever, as the defense who finished in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed last season should not improve by much.

In a fantasy year where there is much debate over who the top wideouts in the league are going to be, Johnson has a real chance to make his presence felt. I believe that he will end the ‘07 season as a top 5 fantasy wideout, and it wouldn’t come as a complete shock to see him lead the NFL in both receptions (led league in ‘06) and receiving yards. I certainly believe that he will have a career high in TDs, likely in the 10-12 range. His current average draft position for WRs in ESPN leagues is 16th. You should be able to grab him sometime in the 4th round or early in the 5th, which would be an absolute steal. Whatever you do, don’t miss out on what is going to be a career year for Andre Johnson.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Jon Kitna joined Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Marc Bulger, and Carson Palmer in the 4,000 yard club last season. Not bad company.

He’s turning age 35 in September, but just like 80’s movies, Jon is only getting better with age. This year Jon Kitna “Magic”, as I like to call him, tries to build on his career high 4,208 passing yards with an even more explosive offense that now includes rookie phenom Calvin Johnson and speedster Tatum Bell. Throw in Mike Furrey, Roy Williams, and Kevin Jones (out till week 6) and you have yourself some dangerous weapons. Health permitting and thanks to offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Kitna should have close to 600 passing attempts once again in 2007, and should easily break the 4,000 yard barrier. He’ll definitely throw his fair share of picks, but his TD passes could reach the 30 mark. All in all, he’s a very solid 5th to 6th round QB that predicts to easily earn his value. I’d take him over Matt Hasselbeck, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers without blinking an eye. Detroit is just too poor on defense to expect to win many games, and that leads to a lot of passing to play comeback. Not to mention, the Lions play in a dome which seems to always lead to more high scoring games as opposed to playing in extreme weather conditions. All signs point to yes on #8 in ’07, including him keeping the same suave haircut.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

Draft strategy, draft strategy, draft strategy, that is all fantasy football owners want to talk about this time of year. Hey, it makes sense; people want to know what the best draft strategy is when it comes to selecting a competitive fantasy football team. Does the perfect draft strategy exist? My answer is that it does exist, and the key is to simply take the best available player at all times, regardless of position.

I know, you have been told several times that you would be foolish not to select a RB with your first two picks. I’m here to tell you that you are foolish if you abide by that strategy as law. It is true, RBs do win fantasy leagues. However, the huge misconception is that the RBs who win owners fantasy leagues all are going to be drafted in the first two rounds.

Frank Gore is living proof that championship RBs can be found in the later rounds of your draft.

Let’s look at the top 12 total points RBs from a 2006 standard RB scoring league (1pt=10yds rush, 1pt=10yds rec, 6pts=TD) with respect to when they might have been drafted in a 12-team competitive league last season.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson- Top 5
2. Larry Johnson- Top 5
3. Steven Jackson- 1st round
4. Frank Gore- Middle or late round
5. Willie Parker- 2nd round
6. Brian Westbrook- 1st or 2nd round
7. Maurice Jones-Drew- Late round or undrafted
8. Rudi Johnson- 1st round
9. Ladell Betts- Late round or undrafted
10. Joseph Addai- 3rd to 6th round
11. Chester Taylor- 3rd to 6th round
12. Deuce McAllister- 2nd to 5th round

Of the 12, only Tomlinson, Johnson, Johnson, and Jackson were almost certainly 1st round picks. Of the remaining 8, only Parker and Westbrook were likely a 2nd round choice, which means that half of the top 12 RB total point producers from ‘06 most likely weren’t selected in the first two rounds of your draft last season. The point is that you can find RB talent past the first two rounds if you play your cards correctly, leaving you the opportunity to draft upper echelon players at other positions in earlier rounds.

Here is how I would apply my “best player available” strategy for the first few rounds of your draft. Now, if you are slotted somewhere from 1 to 7 in your draft, the best available player is most likely going to be a RB. There aren’t any players I would take over Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, Addai, Johnson, Westbrook, or Parker. However, if you are slotted from 7 to 12 in a 12-team league, I believe that the “best available player” will start to vary in position.

At pick 8 to 12, and especially from 12 back to 8, owners applying the two RB rule are going to start overreaching out of desperation to fill the RB position. If you are smart, you will cash on their mistakes. They will bypass sure fire players like Peyton Manning (my #1 ranked QB), Carson Palmer (my #2 ranked QB), and Chad Johnson (my #1 ranked WR) for overrated RBs like Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry. My advice is to take players that you know are going to perform week in and week out for your team. Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry could all have great ‘07 seasons, but Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Chad Johnson will have great ‘07 seasons. If you went with McGahee, Brown, or Henry over Manning, Palmer, or Johnson, you wouldn’t be taking the best available player, and your team will ultimately suffer because of it.

To the owners who are convinced that RBs like McGahee and Brown aren’t overreaches in the late 1st or early 2nd round, I’ll explain to you why they are. McGahee is averaging the 13th overall pick in ESPN leagues as of today, while Brandon Jacobs is averaging the 35th overall pick. I hate to break it to you McGahee fans, but these guys are virtually the same fantasy player. They both will get goal line carries in a relatively weak offense, they both will likely be replaced on 3rd downs, and they both are going to average around the same amount of carries per game. The hype on McGahee is just that, hype. There is no reason, based on both statistics and brain power, that McGahee should be going 22 slots ahead of Jacobs. Let’s compare Ronnie Brown and Jerious Norwood. How much difference is there in the two RBs going into the season? They are both young with raw talent, they both play in terrible offenses, and they will both get the ball. Why is Brown being picked 15th, while Norwood is being taken 50th? I’ll tell you why, it is the two RB rule getting the best of nervous owners early in the draft.

I’ll finish this off by saying that I have drafted every possible way, with every possible strategy. Having said that, my most competitive teams always come by simply drafting the best player available, regardless of position. Trust me; it is the way to go.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

A quick recap of my top 30 rankings…..Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, Addai, L Johnson, Westbrook, Parker, Jones-Drew, Maroney, R Johnson, Bush, McAllister, McGahee, Jacobs, Portis, Alexander, Brown, Henry, Norwood, Benson, Green, Barber III, T Jones, J Jones, Taylor, Betts, Lynch, Peterson, D Williams, James.

31. Carnell Williams (TB)- Cadillac certainly deserves to be ranked this low based on his ‘06 statistics. His 3.90 YPT was terrible, and his 0.41 PPT is indicative of Mike Alstott stealing the Bucs goal line touches. However, Williams has a few things going for him this season. Mike Alstott has retired, and with his retirement he leaves Williams his TD opportunities. Also, if Jeff Garcia can imitate the QB he was at the end of last season, Tampa Bay should be able to move the ball more often. Michael Pittman will play on 3rd downs, so Williams’ value will be limited to what he can do on the ground and how many TDs he can punch in. If he can stay healthy, Cadillac could end up a being a bargain on draft day.

If Vernand Morency can shake the injury bug, he has definite sleeper potential.

32. Vernand Morency (GB)- I’ll go on the record and say that I like Morency. He’s a very elusive back, with decent hands to go along with it. His obvious problem is that he can’t stay healthy. With his preseason knee injury setting him back a bit, it looks as if rookie Brandon Jackson will start week 1 for the Packers. However, I strongly believe that Morency will prove the more productive RB of the two when he touches the ball. Most people are going to draft Jackson over Morency, but I would go the opposite direction.

33. Tatum Bell (DET)- Kevin Jones is looking like he’s not going to make it back into uniform until at least week 6 of the regular season, which leaves Bell as the starting RB in Detroit to start the year. His 4.44 YPT in Denver last season wasn’t bad, but it remains questionable as to whether or not T.J. Duckett will steal his goal line carries as Mike Bell did in ‘06. Mike Martz seems to love Bell, which is never a bad thing from a fantasy perspective. He should produce solid numbers in a good Lions offense while he’s in there, but Kevin Jones will play when healthy.

34. Kevin Jones (DET)- Had it not been for the season-ending foot injury in ‘06, Jones would have topped 1,500 total yards and scored at least 10 TDs. While he won’t be back until week 6, he’s talented enough to grab at a good price and stash away for later. If it becomes mid-late in your draft, and Jones is still there, you could do a lot worse than calling out his name.

35. Jamal Lewis (CLE)- I suppose because he is a starting RB in the NFL that he deserves some attention, although I prefer to give him zero. His 3.76 YPT shouldn’t raise any in Cleveland, and his TD opportunities will obviously be scarce. He will produce some decent statistical weeks only because he will get the ball, but you would be better off taking someone with more upside.

36. LenDale White (TEN)- White has some obvious talent, but his injuries and lack of work ethic may never allow him to realize it. The Titans are going to give him the chance to start the regular season, but rookie Chris Henry and the unexplainable Chris Brown are awaiting his possible failures. There is no telling how this situation will play out as the season gets underway.

37. Chester Taylor (MIN)- With Adrian Peterson coming to town, Taylor is almost like a forgotten man in Minnesota. The Vikings don’t appear to think that Taylor has what it takes to be an every down back, and they could be correct. If Peterson is healthy, Taylor won’t see the field enough to produce good numbers. However, Taylor is ranked here because the chance of Peterson remaining healthy is probably slim to none.

38. Brandon Jackson (GB)- He was the Packers 2nd round pick out of Nebraska, and looks to be their week 1 starter by default. Again, I think Morency will prove the more productive RB for fantasy owners once the season is a few games in, but Jackson does deserve a look around this time.

39. DeShaun Foster (CAR)- Let me ask…..what happened to DeShaun Foster in ‘06? There is just no excuse for 4.08 YPT and 0.48 PPT from a player of Foster’s talent level. Maybe he will show up to play in ‘07, but even if he does, it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to steal a full time gig from DeAngelo Williams.

40. LaMont Jordan (OAK)- The Raiders are a disaster. They signed Dominic Rhodes; he’s suspended for 4 games, so it’s back to Jordan to begin the season. The real problem is that Jordan and Rhodes aren’t that good even if they weren’t going to be splitting carries from week 5 on. It is probably best to just avoid the entire Oakland team for fantasy purposes.

41. Dominic Rhodes (OAK)- See LaMont Jordan

42. Warrick Dunn (ATL)- Dunn is soon going to realize that the RB show in Atlanta no longer belongs to him. Jerious Norwood will shine early on, and Dunn will likely be limited to 3rd down duties by season’s end. That is, of course, if he can stay healthy.

43. Mike Bell (DEN)- Travis Henry has shown in the past that he is no guarantee to stay healthy, and I still believe that Bell will get goal line carries even when Henry is healthy. Bell had a solid 4.72 YPT in ‘06, showing that he is capable of very good numbers given the opportunity. Bell is a must handcuff for all Henry owners.

44. Michael Turner (SD)- Yes, it is handcuff territory, and there aren’t any better to have in fantasy football than Turner. Call me crazy if you want, but if Tomlinson went down with a serious injury, you wouldn’t lose much production as long as you had Turner to use the rest of the year. It goes without saying, but Turner is a must handcuff for Tomlinson owners.

45. Chris Henry (TEN)- The Titans RB situation is going to be wild in ‘07. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see LenDale White, Chris Brown, and the rookie Henry all start at least one game before the season is over. Who knows, if White proves unproductive or gets injured, Henry could produce for fantasy owners before it is all said and done.

46. Chris Brown (TEN)- See Chris Henry

47. Reuben Droughns (NYG)- Because I am a big believer in Brandon Jacobs, I don’t see Droughns as any more than a handcuff RB. He doesn’t have bad hands, so he could see work on 3rd down.

48. Adrian Peterson (CHI)- Mark my words, the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson won’t be the only one with fantasy value in ‘07. Cedric Benson is very injury prone, and I think this Peterson has the skills to be very productive if needed. If you are going for Benson, make sure and stash Peterson on your bench.

49. Leon Washington (NYJ)- 5.23 YPT in ‘06 shows that Washington is very explosive. He might not be big enough to carry a full load of work, but he’ll hold solid fantasy value if Thomas Jones goes down or doesn’t produce. He is well worth drafting late and storing on your bench.

50. Anthony Thomas (BUF)- If Marshawn Lynch doesn’t show much early in ‘07, Thomas will likely begin to take snaps away from the rookie. Only a serious Lynch injury however would give Thomas a huge workload in any game this season. He can be handcuffed to Lynch at his owner’s pleasure.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

A quick recap of my 1-15 rankings…Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, Addai, Johnson, Westbrook, Parker, Jones-Drew, Maroney, Johnson, Bush, McAllister, McGahee, Jacobs, Portis.

16. Shaun Alexander (SEA)- And now we come to Shaun Alexander’s 2006 season grade……F minus! Alexander’s 3.58 YPT number was the 3rd worst among RBs who touched the ball more than 100 times in ‘06. The good news, however, is that he did manage more YPT production than both Cedric Houston(3.48) and Kevan Barlow(2.83). Do you see where I’m going with this? Fantasy owners need to stop living in the past. Alexander could have a bounce back season, I’m certainly not ruling that out, but even if he is twice as good as he was in ‘06, he still wouldn’t reach the production needed to be worthy of a top 5 pick (ESPN average). He is a year older, a year more injury prone, and the Seahawks offense is on the decline. They didn’t break the top 15 in total offense last season, and they traded their most productive WR to the 49ers in the off-season. There are just a lot more reasons to be skeptical of Alexander than there are to be optimistic. I would stay away.

17. Ronnie Brown (MIA)- Despite the horrendous offense he plays in, Brown still managed a solid YPT number (4.69) in ‘06, which shows his talent level. If he can sidestep another injury in ‘07, he is a lock for 300+ touches, which makes him a relatively solid pick around this time. The Dolphins offense shouldn’t improve much, but Brown should remain productive, at least from a yards standpoint.

18. Travis Henry (DEN)- Don’t get me wrong, I like Travis Henry. I expect both his 4.48 YPT and 0.59 PPT from ‘06 to increase in the Broncos offense this season. What I don’t like, or shall I say who I don’t like, is head coach Mike Shanahan. He is completely unpredictable and untrustworthy, as every fantasy owner knows. He used Henry in a goal line situation early in the preseason, but as we have all come to know from Shanahan, that really doesn’t tell us much. I was impressed with what I saw from Mike Bell in goal line situations last season, and quite frankly, I think Shanahan was too. Henry is a great risk/reward pick, but don’t be surprised if Bell is vulturing his TDs come Week 1.

Without Michael Vick, Jerious Norwood will now be the Falcons’ main offensive attraction.

19. Jerious Norwood (ATL)- Norwood is an absolute stud; there is just no other way to put it. His 6.62 YPT was #1 among all RBs with at least 100 touches in ‘06. The Falcons offense will be ugly with Joey Harrington now running the show, but that will be even more reason to get Norwood the ball. The team is going to need a huge spark in ‘07, and I think the Falcons realize that Norwood can be the guy to give it to them. Warrick Dunn will gradually take a backseat to Jerious in ‘07, so don’t let him frighten you away.

20. Cedric Benson (CHI)- I have to say, I’m just not a fan of Benson’s. He is sluggish, lacks great moves, and has shown that he is injury prone in his short time in the NFL. His 4.25 YPT in ‘06 was lackluster, but he did manage a solid 0.64 PPT because of his 6 TDs in only 165 touches. Now that Thomas Jones is wearing a Jets uni, Benson’s touches should double this season as long as he can stay healthy. He likely won’t, so take the other Adrian Peterson as insurance if you do venture Benson’s way in ‘07.

21. Ahman Green (HOU)- Green had a solid season for the Packers in ‘06. His 4.59 YPT last season suggests he still does have some fuel left in his tank. The Texans will give him every opportunity to reach 300 touches in ‘07, and if he does, he will best the 6 TDs he scored last season in Green Bay. However, that remains a big if.

22. Marion Barber III (DAL)- 5.38 YPT and a whopping 1.15 PPT in ‘06 reveal his true talent. The only question that remains is how much that talent will be on display in ‘07. Head coach Wade Phillips has said that he will likely use both backs as Bill Parcells did in ‘06, which would limit Barber to 3rd downs and goal line carries. However, if he continues to outshine Julius Jones early in the year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him starting by midseason.

23. Thomas Jones (NYJ)- Jones only belongs here because the Jets will try to get him the ball as much as they can in ‘07. His 4.11 YPT last season was subpar, and the Jets offense doesn’t have much more to offer Jones than the Bears offense did. There just doesn’t seem to be much upside here at all.

24. Julius Jones (DAL)- Much like Bush and McAllister, it doesn’t make sense for Jones and Barber to be ranked very far apart. Jones is actually projected to touch the ball more than Barber, and in the Cowboys relatively strong offense, he can still produce decent statistics for your fantasy team. I would still draft Barber ahead of Jones based on Barber’s stronger upside.

25. Fred Taylor (JAX)- If Jones-Drew wasn’t so unbelievable, Taylor would warrant a higher spot on the list. 5.46 YPT and 0.69 PPT in 254 touches last season are strong numbers for a RB ranked in this spot. However, Jones-Drew should surpass Fred in touches in ‘07, which is why Taylor occupies this position.

26. Ladell Betts (WAS)- Betts is the Larry Johnson of two seasons ago in the sense that it’s very debatable as to when to take a great handcuff RB in your draft. With Portis’ durability very much in question, this seems about the right time. It’s hard to argue with Betts’ 5.37 YPT production in just shy of 300 touches in ‘06.

27. Marshawn Lynch (BUF)- It’s now time to toss in the rookies. The reason Lynch is ranked over Adrian Peterson is in large part because of Chester Taylor. The Bills will be much more willing to ditch Lynch’s surrounding RBs and give him the bulk of the work than the Vikings will be to forget about Taylor. Any rookie that has a chance to get 300+ touches, no matter the team, deserves consideration and attention.

28. Adrian Peterson (MIN)- I’m impressed, and I’ve always been impressed while watching him play at Oklahoma. He’s fast, he’s quick, he’s agile, he has juke moves, he has spin moves, and he has some power. If he can maintain his health, Adrian Peterson is going to be a great NFL RB. As for ‘07, Chester Taylor is still going to see his fair share of time, which obviously cuts into Peterson’s value. His talent alone makes him worth the pick.

29. DeAngelo Williams (CAR)- His ‘06 YPT of 5.29 screams that he should be the starting RB in Carolina, but as of now, the job remains DeShaun Foster’s. Foster looked awful last season, and if that continues early in ‘07, Williams will take his job and run with it.

30. Edgerrin James (ARI)- Oh how the mighty have fallen. 3.67 YPT and 0.46 PPT make his ‘06 owners want to hurl. Yes, he was that bad and you probably know it. The offensive line in Arizona is nothing to write home about, but that can’t be the entire problem. Something is not right with the Edge, and may never be again. It got so bad for James last season that Marcel Shipp was stealing his goal line carries. James has an outside chance for a revival season only because it is possible that new coach Ken Whisenhunt still thinks he is good.

Monday, August 20 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings (31-50)

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.

I have shown you the Yards Per Touch numbers. I have shown you the Points Per Touch numbers. Now it is time for me to reveal my overall ‘07 RB rankings. Here we go with 1 through 15.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)- No drama here. 5.75 YPT and 1.04 PPT with 404 touches in ‘06 is quite unbelievable. No reason to think the Chargers offense will suffer with Norv Turner now running the show. Only thing that can stop Tomlinson from #1 status will be an injury. That is why you handcuff him with Michael Turner.

2. Steven Jackson (STL)- Jackson is the clear cut #2 this season. The Rams have become more run balanced with Mike Martz in Detroit, and Scott Linehan loves Jackson. What is not to love about 5.35 YPT in 436 touches in ‘06. Expect the same workload, and the same production in ‘07.

3. Frank Gore (SF)- In my opinion, this is a toss up between Gore and Joseph Addai. The reason Gore ultimately occupies the spot is because his 5.84 YPT in ‘06 topped both Tomlinson and Jackson. His 0.73 PPT number should go up with increased TD opportunities. Alex Smith is a year older and wiser, and Darrell Jackson should help the 49ers offense improve.

Can Addai score 20+ TDs in ‘07? You better believe it.

4. Joseph Addai (IND)- Yes that is right, #4. What is there not to like about Addai? 5.29 YPT in ‘06 and now he is the featured back in perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL. He showed effectiveness on the goal line in ‘06, and he could top 20 TDs this season. There just aren’t many RB in the league that will have the scoring chances Addai will in ‘07. Take him here with confidence.

5. Larry Johnson (KC)- He was less productive in ‘06 than ‘05 from both a YPT and PPT standpoint, but that is to be expected when you break the NFL record for carries in a season. He is still holding out, but being a Kansas City native, I expect Scary Larry to sign before the season gets underway. When he does ink his new contract, the Chiefs will feel obligated to force feed him the ball once again. He’ll top 400 touches barring injury, and he’s too talented not to produce solid numbers. Just don’t expect 19 TDs with the offense the Chiefs are putting on the field in ‘07.

6. Brian Westbrook (PHI)- When Westbrook gets the ball, the man is explosive. 6.04 YPT for a RB with over 300 touches is simply amazing. His knee troubles are a bit scary for a guy that is only 28, but he should be good for another 300 touches in ‘07. He will break enough long TDs to reach 10 once again, which will make him worthy of this pick.

7. Willie Parker (PIT)- Parker sits below Westbrook for two reasons. One, his ‘06 YPT of 4.66 wasn’t outstanding. Two, it is questionable as to whether he will be able take on another 368 touch season as he did in ‘06. Steelers’ new head coach Mike Tomlin maintains that Parker will play on third downs and receive goal line carries as he did last season. The Steelers offense is very equipped, so nothing but a Parker injury would suggest his numbers will drop off too much.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)- Surprised to see Jones-Drew this high? If you have read my previous blogs, you shouldn’t be. Jones-Drew just might be the most explosive RB to enter the league since Barry Sanders. Let me repeat that in case you read it wrong. Jones-Drew just might…….ok so I’m not going to repeat it, but it is true. To finish 7th in total points in a standard RB scoring league despite touching the ball only 212 times, is special. Jones-Drew is just too good not to get the ball to more, and the Jaguars know it. If he touches the ball just 250-275 times, he’ll be a top 5 back. If he touches the ball 300+ times, look out! 6.5 YPT and 1.07 PPT numbers are just too impressive to let this guy slip far in your draft.

9. Laurence Maroney (NE)- Maroney had a solid 4.77 YPT in ‘06, and punched in 7 TDs while only receiving 197 touches. With Corey Dillon (13 TDs in ‘06) out of the picture in New England, Maroney should be able to get close to 300 touches and score 10-15 TDs. The only downside to Maroney is that the Patriots use Kevin Faulk on 3rd downs.

10. Rudi Johnson (CIN)- The fact that the Bengals have no one else to give the ball to forces me to slot Rudi here. 3.94 YPT and 0.59 PPT are just plain ugly numbers for a RB in the Bengals offense. Maybe Johnson will improve those numbers this year, but there is also a chance that he just isn’t that good. One thing is certain; he is going to get the ball.

11. Reggie Bush (NO)- We all know about Reggie Bush. 5.38 YPT in ‘06 tells us he’s a big play guy, but again, we already knew that. He should see a few more touches (243 in ‘06) in ‘07, but Deuce McAllister will again see most of the goal line action. How high Bush can climb in ‘07 will depend on how many long runs and catches he can bust for TDs. He is ranked this high because he has the ability to break off quite a few.

12. Deuce McAllister (NO)- Deuce and Bush go hand in hand. If Bush is ranked as a 1st round RB, McAllister has to be as well. He receives goal line carries in a very productive offense, which should get him to 10+ TDs again in ‘07. His 4.58 YPT is not too bad either, which means he will put his 250+ carries to good use.

13. Willis McGahee (BAL)- Yes, I have heard the hype. He has lost weight, he looks good, he is going to see 3rd down action, yada yada yada. That is all fine, but I have to see it to believe it. McGahee is just not that impressive from a statistical standpoint, no matter what team he is playing for. It is not as if the Ravens are an offensive juggernaut either, so he is still going to see the line stacked against him as he did in Buffalo. Having said all of that, he has good chance to get 350+ touches, which would make him worthy of a pick around this time.

14. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)- Don’t be afraid to take Brandon Jacobs, because he is going to be the next great big back in the NFL. He is not just a goal line guy, as he has swift feet and good explosion. While he only had 107 touches in ‘06, his 5.35 YPT is still impressive. He will put the Reuben Droughns factor to bed very quickly early in the season.

15. Clinton Portis (WAS)- 4.81 YPT and 0.77 PPT before going down with injury in ‘06 proves Clinton Portis can still be a huge fantasy factor. Yes, he’s injury prone, but he’s only 26, and he still has a lot of speed left in him. Ladell Betts success last season only tells me that the Redskins offensive line is solid, and that Portis will find running room when he gets the ball. Betts will play in 3rd down situations, but they aren’t paying Clinton $50 million to share 1st and 2nd down carries. He would be a bargain here.

Sunday, August 19 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings (16-30)
Monday, August 20 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings (31-50)

Now that I have given you a better understanding of the Yards Per Touch statistic (YTP), and why it is important when assessing the running back position, it is now time to add the Points Per Touch (PPT) statistic to the mix. While YPT will tell us what players are eating up chunks of yardage from goal line to goal line, PPT will give us an indication of who is both racking up yards and hitting paydirt.

PPT (in this case) is calculated using a standard fantasy RB scoring system, with 1 point being awarded for every 10 yards rushing, 1 point being awarded for every 10 yards receiving, and 6 points being awarded for every touchdown scored. To get the PPT statistic using the standard scoring system, we simply divide an individual RBs total rushing yards by 10, divide total receiving yards by 10, and multiply their touchdowns by 6. Those 3 numbers are then added together for the RBs total points, which is then divided by the RBs total touches (Carries+Receptions), to get Points Per Touch.

Total Points= (Rushing Yards/10) + (Receiving Yards/10) + (Touchdowns*6)
PPT= (Total Points/Total Touches)

While PPT does take yards into account, essentially the final statistic is heavily weighted on the amount of TDs scored, as is almost every fantasy football league in existence. Just as we did with the YPT figure, let’s take a look at the 2006 PPT numbers (from best to worst) for all RBs with over 100 touches.

Low YPT and PPT numbers indicate that Rudi Johnson is overrated.

Marion Barber III- 1.15 PPT (158 touches)
Maurice Jones-Drew- 1.07 PPT (212 touches)
Brandon Jacobs- 1.04 PPT (107 touches)
LaDainian Tomlinson- 1.04 PPT (404 touches)
Brian Westbrook- 0.81 PPT (317 touches)
Corey Dillon- 0.81 PPT (214 touches)
Clinton Portis- 0.77 PPT (144 touches)
Jerious Norwood- 0.77 PPT (111 touches)
Steven Jackson- 0.76 PPT (436 touches)
Mike Bell- 0.74 PPT (177 touches)
Reggie Bush- 0.74 PPT (243 touches)
Larry Johnson- 0.73 PPT (457 touches)
Correll Buckhalter- 0.73 PPT (107 touches)
Frank Gore- 0.73 PPT (373 touches)
Willie Parker- 0.73 PPT (368 touches)
Joseph Addai- 0.71 PPT (266 touches)
Kevin Jones- 0.70 PPT (242 touches)
Laurence Maroney- 0.69 PPT (197 touches)
Fred Taylor- 0.69 PPT (254 touches)
Deuce McAllister- 0.68 PPT (274 touches)
Leon Washington- 0.66 PPT (176 touches)
Cedric Benson- 0.64 PPT (165 touches)
Ladell Betts- 0.64 PPT (298 touches)
Vernon Morency- 0.61 PPT (107 touches)
DeAngelo Williams- 0.61 PPT (154 touches)
Ron Dayne- 0.60 PPT (165 touches)
Cedric Houston- 0.60 PPT (120 touches)
Travis Henry- 0.59 PPT (288 touches)
Rudi Johnson- 0.59 PPT (364 touches)
Wali Lundy- 0.59 PPT (157 touches)
Ronnie Brown- 0.58 PPT (274 touches)
Ahman Green- 0.57 PPT (312 touches)
Sammy Morris- 0.55 PPT (113 touches)
Kevan Barlow- 0.54 PPT (138 touches)
Willis McGahee- 0.54 PPT (277 touches)
Chester Taylor- 0.54 PPT (345 touches)
Jamal Lewis- 0.54 PPT (332 touches)
Dominic Rhodes- 0.53 PPT (223 touches)
Julius Jones- 0.53 PPT (276 touches)
Warrick Dunn- 0.52 PPT (308 touches)
Thomas Jones- 0.52 PPT (332 touches)
Shaun Alexander- 0.52 PPT (264 touches)
Lamont Jordan- 0.51 PPT (124 touches)
Anthony Thomas- 0.49 PPT (129 touches)
Tatum Bell- 0.49 PPT (257 touches)
DeShaun Foster- 0.48 PPT (259 touches)
Reuben Droughns- 0.47 PPT (247 touches)
Edgerrin James- 0.46 PPT (375 touches)
Justin Fargas- 0.42 PPT (191 touches)
Carnell Williams- 0.41 PPT (255 touches)
Maurice Morris- 0.38 PPT (172 touches)

As expected, just about every TD producer in the league is near the top of the PPT list. Once again, just as the case with YPT, the more touches a RB had, the more impressive a high PPT number becomes.

Given both YPT and PPT for every RB in the league, and taking all factors that lead to these statistics into consideration, it becomes much easier to make educated picks on draft day rather than to simply make guesses. From the numbers, we can see that Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the most explosive RBs in the NFL when he touches the ball. Not only did he average 6.5 yards every time he touched the rock last season, he averaged over 1 fantasy point as well. Considering that the Jaguars offense remains very much the same in 2007, there is no reason to suggest Jones-Drew won’t be able to repeat his 227 total points (ranked 7th) from last season. If anything, the second year back could see his workload increase, which would likely make him a top 5 RB in ‘07. Once again, he is currently the 15th RB coming off the board according to ESPN’s average draft list, which makes absolutely zero sense.

Rudi Johnson is a prime example of how breaking down YPT and PPT from last season can help you tremendously on draft day. His YPT(3.94) and PPT(0.59) are pathetic for a RB featured in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Johnson is a fantasy product of the Bengals offense, and of the amount of touches he receives, and that is the bottom line. As long as Johnson gets his 350+ touches in ‘07, he shouldn’t have any problem equaling his 214 total points from ‘06 (ranked 8th). However, when you contemplate that Jones-Drew surpassed Johnson in total points in ‘06 while touching the ball 152 less times, it puts into perspective just how unproductive Rudi is when he gets the pigskin. Drafting a RB in the first round that continuously shows low levels of YPT and PPT production is like playing with fire, and sometime in the next few seasons, owners will get burned with Johnson. My advice if you’re thinking about taking Johnson? Pass on Rudi, take Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush, or Laurence Maroney around the same time. Another strategy would be to pass on Rudi, take your top ranked receiver (mine is Chad Johnson), and draft a guy like Brandon Jacobs one or two rounds later. Jacobs shows outstanding YPT(5.35) and PPT(1.04) production, and should get close to 300 touches in ‘07 with Tiki Barber now talking politics. With this strategy, there is a good chance you will end up with a RB in Jacobs that will equal Rudi’s points, and you will have a stud WR to boot.

I will tie everything together tomorrow by revealing my overall RB rankings, along with my sleeper and bust predictions.

Saturday, August 18 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
Sunday, August 19 Blog: Draft Strategy, Take the Best Available Player