Fantasy Football

Sorry about the hiatus, folks. We were under the weather to the point we were skipping work, and even more so than usual. Not to mention there isn’t/wasn’t much going on in the way of fantasy football, with my 101 temperature I was feeling even less compelled to post. Again, my apologies. Next time I’ll try to be more perseverant when I can’t lift my head.

This whole thing could have been avoided if he found something a little more manageable.

But that brings us to the week with a couple dour notes. Well, you be the judge. Plaxico Burress’ court date has been pushed back to September, meaning he won’t go to trial until at least Summer of 2010 (there are entirely too many people in New York). This could be construed as good news…I guess. It entirely depends on where he ends up for anyone who cares either way. But I think when you’re relying on delayed trials to actually get on the field, your career has taken a turn for the worst.

Also, before you get all anxious looking to steal Burress early should he end up in Philly or New Orleans or some place equally attractive for receivers, remember that he will still be suspended by the NFL. I think this is a first strike (so to speak) with Burress, so expect him to miss around four to five games. You know, the same penalty they have for steroid abuse.

Also, Vince Young gave one of the more bizarre interviews with Michael Smith on Sportscenter that was replayed to death yesterday. In it, he claims that “suicide wasn’t an option”. Well, that’s good. But again, when you’re refuting accusations of attempted suicide, things have not gone according to plan. I think right now the last thing Young should be concerned with is his status on the Titans, because they seem content to let him backup Kerry Collins for the time being, and it’s been alleged that he might have some other…issues to work out. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, do not over-draft anyone from Tennessee this season. I mean, it’s wise not to over-draft anybody, but if all things are equal, take the guy who isn’t on the Titans.

And finally (this has no preset notions of tawdriness too it, at least not from a legality/mortality standpoint), we have trouble in 8-8 paradise: Owen Daniels did not show up for mini-camp. Oh no, now who’s going to be your fall back tight-end available on the waiver wire when the Steelers are on their bye week?

I guess from the team’s perspective this is kind of a big deal, Owen Daniels might be the best blocker they have on their line. But from a fantasy perspective? You’re better off drafting Brandon Pettigrew, since Detroit has a rookie quarterback and he’s a monstrous target that should be downfield, in between the tackles. Point being, I think as the season progresses, you can find better tight ends, despite what every fantasy publication may tell you. If his physical projections as a newborn were anywhere nearly as inflated as his yearly fantasy projections, I’m pretty sure he’s about two feet shorter than he was supposed to be.

Back with more tomorrow.

So here it is, the biggest sporting event in America that manages to be over hyped every single year. It is a frequent topic of discussion whether or not a Super Bowl lives up to expectations. Ofttimes a person posed with such a question will make some sort of blanket statement along the lines of, “the game always sucks anyways”, as if it’s a highly original thought to dismiss a conversation piece with some faux-anti-establishment stance. When in actuality this perspective is so commonplace that it tows the line more so than ripping it off course.

And it’s for no reason really. If you look back at every Super Bowl going back to the Packers win over the Patriots in 1996, the duds have been few and far between. Fuck it, let’s just do the rundown in chronological order:

Packers over Patriots: I enjoyed this game immensely but we’re calling it a half-dud mainly because it wasn’t closely contested. This was one of those games in which everything that everyone thought would happen, happened. But between all the special teams plays and that it laid the groundwork for the Patriots dynasty, we found it enjoyable and look back on it fondly. This was also the last game in the NFC’s streak of Super Bowl victories.

Broncos over Packers: Was regarded as a tremendous upset and I’m still not sure why. Denver was fucking stacked but some things never change, because even when Brett Favre was great he was still overrated. There wasn’t much he could do about Denver hanging 31 on his defense. Terrell Davis went ape shit and John Elway solidified his legacy. This is probably still my favorite Super Bowl.

The personel helped the epicness of this one.

Broncos over Falcons: On the other hand, this is probably the worst. It will, for always and forever be remembered as the Super Bowl that missed out on the greatest NFL offense I’ve ever seen in the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Just go look at the numbers and the roster. This was a loaded offense with a serviceable defense that missed out on the title because their kicker who hadn’t missed a field goal all season, decided that late in the fourth quarter in the NFC title game was an appropriate time to do so. As a result, we got this god awful blowout that everyone could see coming a mile away.

Rams over Titans: This was supposed to be a blowout but the tenacious Tennessee Titans led by Steve McNair and Eddie George made a game of it, coming up just a yard short of the end zone to send it into overtime (not win them the title like historical revisionists are so apt to do). Definitely an entertaining, memorable contest.

Ravens over Giants: The Falcons-Broncos game was technically the worst we’ve ever seen, but only because we didn’t even bother to watch this train wreck. We didn’t know who was going to win and we didn’t give a shit. Both teams we impossible to objectively root for and this was during our freshman year of college. Needless to say we were preoccupied.

Patriots over Rams: The biggest upset we had seen at the time, the Patriots went in as double digit underdogs and came out with the win. At the time, every neutral fan was elated, none the wiser that it would start a dynasty and put the nation’s most insufferable fans in the spotlight for an entire decade. Never the less, the game itself was immensely satisfying because we never liked those Rams teams. They always got too much credit for their offense, “GREATEST. EVER.” Was the common description, completely ignoring our beloved Minnesota Vikings that we bandwagoned in 1998.

Buccaneers over Raiders: A dud in all respects but it’s gets a better rating than the Broncos second win or the Ravens win because we won money off of it, and for Craig Kilborne’s joke, “When asked if he was going to throw six interceptions in his next professional outing, Rich Gannon threw a pen at the reporter…only for it to be caught by another reporter”.

If we're mentioning the Buccaneers and their the host city for the Super Bowl, you can be damn sure that we're posting a picture of their cheeleaders.

Patriots over Panthers: This was a great second half. Or maybe it only felt that way because it followed the dreariest half of football we’ve ever been privy too. It also stands out because while just about everyone was picking the Patriots to win, the only people who were diverging from common consensus were former players turned analysts. The Pats still ended up winning but they really shouldn’t have, and it still remains the best argument for why an ex-player makes a better analyst by virtue of being an ex-player than say, John Clayton.

Patriots over Eagles: Patriots beat “my” team in dramatic fashion, take home their third title in four years by a field goal. In spite of my subjectivity, this game offered a lot for the indifferent viewer.

Steelers over Seahawks: Just when you were tiring of the Patriots and were happy to see them left out of super Sunday, you immediately regretted it after watching this poor excuse for a game. The went into the game as a wild card favorite and ended up winning based on a series of calls that could have gone either way, and they all ended up going against them. To this day Seahawks fans still bitch about it.

Colts over Bears: This game was only two years ago and we remember nothing about it. Two stinkfests in a row.

Giants over Patriots: A textbook David vs. Goliath match up that produced similar results. This time around it was the Patriots getting bounced by a three point margin, much to the glee of everyone who hates dynasties.

As you can see, that’s a 6-6-1 giving us a 50% success rate. So, in other words, much like everything else in the world it only disappoints you half the time. Just enjoy the game regardless of what shape it takes. At least its free. With that said, lets take a look at the Sunday’s game. We’ll follow the same format we used for the divisional and playoff rounds.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: I drifted through the past two weeks just assuming everyone was picking the Steelers. But listening to the radio for the first time since the Monday following the title games, it would seem the tide has shifted. Even though Pitt is still a heavy favorite they can now play the vaunted “Nobody respects us” card, something that hard-hitting meat-heads thrive off of. This moniker is like chum in a shark tank.

We could very well end up seeing Pitt mopping the floor with the Cardinals. They’re better coached, have more overall talent and possess a balanced offensive attack that the Cardinals only saw against a self-destructing Panthers team. We all remember Roethlisberger’s performance from his first Super Bowl that his team won in spite of, but most would tell you that while his play is inconsistent and shaky at times, a repeat performance like that is unlikely. Most would probably tell you if they avoid turning the ball over, they should be in the clear.

On the defensive side, this is statistically one of the better defenses to ever grace and NFL field. Tenacious, intimidating, strategic…There isn’t a liability to be found. But have they played a team with this many weapons in the post-season? Call me crazy, but I think the Cardinals receiving corps. top three options are better than any receiver sported by either the Chargers or Ravens. Not that I would expect them too, but the Steelers aren’t incapable of overlooking their opponent.

Arizona’s Outlook: And for good reason. This is a team that only got into the playoffs by playing in and winning one of the weaker divisions we’ve ever seen in the NFL (or the NBA for that matter). Everyone always said throughout the Cardinals three playoff wins that their vanquished opponents took them too lightly, and that was their undoing. Obviously this played a role but I don’t know if it’s necessarily a tremendous character flaw that everyone made it out to be. Of course they were taken lightly! They were 9-7 in the regular season and limped into the post-season. This team we’ve seen in January is obviously filled with ringers.

But it has been a helluva run, regardless of how you frame their journey to Tampa. The defense has adapted to each opponent, gotten to the quarterback and taken advantage of their mistakes. The offense is clicking on all cylinders and has played almost flawless football (which includes one and a half games without Boldin), each side has sucked it up and Edgerrin James is now contributing amply, spelling Tim Hightower. If there is a team of destiny in this game, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. And I have to be honest, that seems to be the vibe from a lot of observers, objective and subjective alike. Why else would they pick Arizona to win?

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Larry Fitzgerald able to leap buildings in a single bound? Will his dad pretend to be objective while watching him in the press box? Will God win this game for Kurt Warner? Is Anquan Boldin going to murder his coordinator? Did the entire city of Pittsburgh relocate itself in Tampa, Florida? Can Arizona run the ball on Pitt? Can Pitt throw the ball on Arizona? Will strip clubs prove to be a distraction?

Fantasy Advice: We’ll get back to fantasy posts the week after the Super Bowl. My apologies for this.

The Pick: We’re torn. On one hand, we’ve got the stalwarts in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The workman like NFL mainstay that no one is surprised to see here, “defense wins championships and all that”. They went through what was statistically the toughest regular season schedule and came out of it with a 12-4 record. But they only went 3-4 in the seven games they played against playoff teams.

On the other we have the Arizona Cardinals, a makeshift team of a second year coach, a once washed up quarterback and a virtual no name defense. They weren’t supposed to make it out of the first round and managed to do so by the skin of their teeth. Throughout the course of the playoffs, they’ve demonstrated that they’re capable of winning this game, but look at these scores: 56-35, 48-20, 35-14, 47-7. Do you know what these are? These are the scores of games that the Cardinals lost during the regular season. Basically, when deliberating on whether you’re picking the Cardinals, you’re deciding if the two week hiatus is going to kill their momentum.

Jesus, I don’t know why we’re so indecisive with this one. Just in writing this post we’ve changed our mind about ten different times…Alright, we’re going to say that yes, it did indeed kill their momentum. Between that and the fact that the Steelers are going to have about ten times as many fans as the Cardinals, not to mention that Pittsburgh is just, and this is a crazy notion, simply the better team. We’ll take them to win and to cover the 6.5, but only because we’re rooting for Arizona.

Not exactly a barrel of laughs is this match-up, unless you include unintentional humor. To be honest, unless the Steelers are wearing their throwback unis with the yellow helmets I really can’t stand either of these teams. It’s a collection of inarticulate jock-tards trading witless barbs before they beat the shit out of each other for our amusement and millions of dollars. None of it is meant to be serious, but it’s treated like the apocalypse by both franchises (especially the Ravens). Even thought the NFC title game features what many would consider two undeserving teams, at least it seems to be recognized as entertainment by everyone except for the Eagles fans.

But yeah, I’m really partial to those yellow helmets. They’re fucking shiny, alright? What do you want from me.

I was an ardent fan in this game against the lowly, lowly Bills.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: Well, they certainly seem to be taking things in stride and not paranoid at all, right? Certainly they’re not buying into the “it’s impossible to beat a team three times in one season” credo. Considering I read on Deadspin yesterday that in the third game wherein one team has one the first two, they are 11-7 the third time around. So as you can see, they do not win an overwhelming amount of the time, but the notion that the team on the losing end of the first two games is destined to win is absurd.

Still, we’ve seen crazier things take place. The Ravens, even more than the Cardinals beating the Falcons, were lucky to sneak past the Titans. If Chris Johnson plays the entire game or if the refs catch that egregious delay of game (even though they did complete a 20 yard pass), things really could have swung in the Titans favor.

So everyone is picking against the Steelers, it seems. Despite their throttling of the Chargers and the fact that they’ll be at home in remarkably terrible weather going against a rookie quarterback (more on that later). Mind you, this is really the first time Willie Parker will be completely healthy going up against this Ravens defense. I know it’s a tad different than running against the Chargers, but It makes a significant difference when your next best option is Melwde Moore. Not to mention that Roethlisberger looked pretty efficient and like a playoff vet last week (something he hadn’t looked like until that moment). Personally, I think the Steelers fan base is one of the more needlessly paranoid in all of sports.

Baltimore’s Outlook: This team thrives on cliches, so naturally they’ve been playing the underdog card to the hilt this entire week and my God is it fucking irritable to listen too. Two things about the coverage of the Ravens and the Ravens themselves that has driven me nuts:

1) Derrick Mason talking shit to the Steelers and any opponent they may have down the road. He does realize that no one is afraid of their offense, right? That we’re all still relatively shocked when the offense successfully executes a play for over ten yards? If anyone is worried about being “ran over by the Ravens”, it is their defense and not their offense. Lord, you’d think that he already forgot that Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright have been throwing to him for the past three seasons.

2) I think it was someone on CBS’ pregame crew that said something along the lines of, “I think we should reconsider calling Joe Flacco a rookie anymore”. Hey nameless dipshit, “rookie” in and of itself is not exactly an insult. It signifies that you’re technically playing your first year in the league. It is, as far as the NFL is concerned, a technical term. No one is disparaging him by simply pointing out that he’d never taken a snap in the NFL before this season. It was kind of out of his hands, you know. Being born when he was. If only the NFL would let high schoolers into their league, then he’d be a seasoned vet, that’s assuming he could still walk.

Anyhow, now that we’re done venting all our disdain for the Ravens, let me explain why I think they could win: Turnovers. This is the brand of defense that thrives not on efficiency, but speed, intimidation and forced errors. Their defense is statistically worse than the Steelers, but if I’m a quarterback I’d rather going against Pitt. Let me put it this way, if they were playing Joe Flacco instead of Ben Roethlisberger, I’d consider them a shoe-in. Now it’s the proverbial coin flip. Also, while I think Parker is a better running option than the Ravens two running backs combined, McGahee and McClain are of a different brand. Parker is a speed back who’d actually benefit from ideal weather conditions, McGahee and McClain are better equipped to endure the harsher conditions.

As much as it pains me to say, they have a great shot to pull off the upset.

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Baltimore the favorite since they’ve already lost twice to the team they’re playing? Can Baltimore win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback? Is Ed Reed going to take it out on Heinz Ward that he didn’t win defensive player of the year? Does either team have any sense of irony? Who would win in a Necessary Roughness style bar brawl? Will the American public stand for another Ravens Super Bowl?

Fantasy Implications: As mentioned yesterday, I’m really expecting more production out of the NFC game. Kickers, tight ends and especially defenses are ideal acquisitions here. And if you must veer into skill position territory, I wouldn’t go beyond Ward, Parker or Mason.

The Pick: With a seemingly inflated line of +6 for the Ravens, I’m taking them to cover the spread but for the Steelers to advance. Basically, if the weather is anything in Pittsburgh like it is in Columbus, I don’t expect either team to break 17 points, meaning the opposition only needs twelve to stay inside six. But between home field advantage and the comparatively veteran quarterback, the Steelers should be able to come out of the box with a win. Which naturally means they probably won’t.

Probably it for the week, enjoy the games on Sunday.

For the sake of posterity, we’re going to follow the same format we did for the divisional playoff previews, because that went so swimmingly.

Philly’s Outlook: Reportedly Andy Reid isn’t even allowing his team to watch footage from their Thanksgiving throttling of the Cardinals, because if recent history is any indication, that game took place on Neptune. I like this strategy, when nothing about the entity with which you are employed makes sense anymore, defy all conventional wisdom. Not to mention that that games was played in an arctic monsoon, it won’t really have the same pace as a match up between the same two teams indoors at University of Phoenix Stadium (I can’t begin to explain how fortunate Arizona is in this regard).

That said, I think Philly would have beaten Arizona anywhere on fateful Thanksgiving night. When the final score is 48-20, that definitely lends to the theory that if you’re not the better team in general, then you were definitely the better team at the time. Unfortunately, since this is the NFL, all that means is you are all the more susceptible to a loss at the next go-around. Basically, they are going to have to defy the odds to win on Sunday.

How do we suspect they do that? Well, if Donovan McNabb continues to be sub-par on 1st and 2nd down but deliver on 3rd, that sounds like the fitting stake they can drive into the hearts of the Cardinals, being that Arizona hasn’t had to overcome even a modicum of adversity in these playoffs. Also, Philly’s defense is considerably better than either Atlanta’s or Carolina’s; and I certainly hope that the Eagles aren’t underestimating the Cardinals like the two teams before them.

The odd thing about the Eagles in the past two games, however, is that the team has historically gone the way of Brian Westbrook. He was completely ineffectual against the Giants, and if it wasn’t for one screen pass that turned into a 70 yard touchdown everyone would say the same thing about his performance against the Vikings. But despite his considerable shortcomings, they’ve managed to win both games convincingly. With word coming out that he tweaked his ankle in the Giants game (though when doesn’t Westbrook tweak something?), one would assume they need him to beat the Cardinals since he broke off four touchdowns against them on Thanksgiving (being an unsuspecting fantasy victim of that is etched into my mind). But since they’ve done it without him against what many would assume to be far superior teams, it’s anyone’s ball game.

Basically, if the Eagles go into this game with a semblance of determination and do not take the Cardinals lightly, they should win fairly convincingly.

Arizona’s Outlook: The argument for the Cardinals seems to be that they’re a team of destiny. The win against the Falcons and the implosion of Jake Delhomme would seem to suggest as much. But can’t the same thing be said about the Eagles? Whose turnaround has been just as unexpected, even if it wasn’t as abrupt? I guess the question really is, whose destiny was to make the NFC title game and whose was to make/win the Superbowl? (Because questions like this are so logical)

I’ll let you know where I am siding in a second, but the Cardinals do have some things going for them. 1) They’re still the underdog. It has been a good year for the underdog in the 2008/09 NFL playoffs. As of now, they’re 6-2 in not just covering, but outright winning. In addition, both these teams have thrived off playing the “no one respects us” card as a motivator. The Cardinals still have this to their advantage, the Eagles do not. Unfortunately for them, they’re playing a team that’s even more of a fluke than they are.

2) They’re at home. Look, I know the Cardinals went out east and refuted all the naysayers who said they didn’t have a chance just because Arizona was 0-5 when on the Atlantic coast and Carolina was 8-0 at home (what tediousness). But it generally doesn’t drop below freezing in Charlotte, North Carolina. Come January in Philadelphia, you’re lucky if it stays above 20. And despite Arizona’s epic collapse at the end of the season taking place all over the country, their two worst games were at New England and at Philly. In other words, count your blessings, everyone associated with Arizona, that the second half of the NFL’s playoff seeding rarely makes any sense.

Speaking of people who are ecstatic that this game is in Arizona...

3) The team they’re playing is only 9-6-1. So far they’ve upset two teams from the NFC South that were 11-5 and 12-4 respectively. The Eagles regular season tribulations are widely reported and almost served as a springboard for their two week playoff run (they beat the Giants in week fifteen, took a week off against the Redskins and lost, then clobbered the Cowboys in week 17. It was truly inspiring). Conventional wisdom would suggest that this bodes well for the Cardinals.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Can Donovan McNabb with the “big one”? Is Kurt Warner’s playoff experience a factor? Can Anquan Boldin’s chiropractor cure cancer? Is Edgerrin James going to leave the Cardinals? Does DeSean Jackson upset small children with his self-boasting? Just how unsportsmanlike is Donovan McNabb and what goes on in his head? Because, you know, Donovan McNabb has such an extensive history of questionable on-field behavior. I’ll never forget the time he body slammed Terrell Owens in 2004.

Fantasy Implications: If you’re still reading this site for fantasy football all I can do is apologize. The URL has gotten very misleading in the past few weeks. In short: I expect a high scoring affair rivaled only by the Kurt Warner teams of old in St. Louis. Depending on how many moves you have left in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge Extravaganza, I would put all my stock in this game except for my kicker and defense (Jeff Reed & Pittsburgh are the other viable options here) and fill the void in the Superbowl left by my vanquished players.

The Pick: If you can’t tell from the contrarian mess that was written up until this point, I’m not really taking this even a little seriously anymore. Earlier I asked which is the team of destiny to make the Superbowl and which to make the NFC Title game earlier. Well, since Arizona hadn’t won a home playoff game in 61 years and this will be the Eagles fifth NFC title game in eight seasons, it feels like Arizona’s destiny has already been met. I am taking Philly to win and to cover the four points they’re getting. It has been an unfathomable run for the Cardinals, but you can put asterisks next to both of their wins thus far (even if the win in Carolina was impressive).

Then again, this might be McNabb’s and Andy Reid’s fate: Relegated too good to great seasons but no Superbowl wins. To say the least, I can totally envision a scenario in which Arizona earns their trip to Tampa, but for a team that has won two games based on multiple freak occurrences that have constantly played in their favor, I have to take the Eagles.

AFC title preview tomorrow.

I have some good and bad news for the fantasy world: Much to the delight of Kansas City Chiefs fans, Scott Pioli has been named their new GM.

This implies a few things: 1) Herm Edwards might be out of a job unless he can charm his way into leading the Chiefs to another sub-500 record. 2) Assuming he is shown the door sooner rather than later, then the Chiefs should no longer be a black hole of suck for the NFL or fantasy owners. For the most part, they’ve only had one reliable player since Dick Vermeil left (Tony Gonzalez) and a slew of injury prone running backs. Just with Pioli being there, they could produce some notable players other than Gonzalez (and now Dwayne Bowe) even if Edwards keeps his job. And 3) We’re in the early stages of this team’s makeover, but regardless of what they look like heading into next season, no one will have any idea how to draft them.

Think of how the NFL works these days with the abrupt single season turnarounds from teams, the inconsistent week to week and season to season individual performances, and that’s just the on the field effects outlook of fantasy football. When you factor in all the clubhouse drama that can sway the incredibly fragile individual and collective psyche of these teams, everyone is guessing from the get-go. Throw in a new GM and a completely revamped offensive roster with (one would hope) a new quarterback, and you might as well auto-draft when it comes to the Chiefs.

While I’d be cautiously optimistic as a Chiefs fan for the upcoming season, as a fantasy participant I would just be cautious. There isn’t anything that says a new coach won’t come in and completely revamp this offense and turn Tony Gonzalez into primarily a blocker instead of a receiver (that’s assuming he stays in KC, which he probably won’t). What if they start a rookie quarterback who isn’t Matt Ryan? Will Dwayne Bowe warrant a high pick? Whose going to be the primary running back? Is Larry Johnson still reliable with a decent passing game? Whose there backup? If they draft a third round running back and keep Johnson, what will the division of carries look like?

So while it is almost impossible to predict how anyone’s fantasy season will go (with a few notable exceptions every year), it’s even more so with a new front office. Which is exactly what the Chiefs will be rolling in 2009’s season with. In short, Scott Pioli’s arrival in Kansas City should only strengthen the parity that the NFL goes out of its way to procure. I hope everyone outside of Missouri and Kansas is happy.

Actually, the good news for everyone else is the Patriots should be collapsing within the next decade. I, for one, welcome the trade off. Not for any spiteful reasons, the Chiefs just have a cooler stadium. It looks like a halfpipe.

Talking Fantasy Football is a meritocracy, and aesthetically pleasing stadiums head our ranking of merits.

Something has happened in the past couple weeks that seems to have made Baltimore the overwhelming favorite to win this game. Not in Vegas, of course, but in the media and just general public perception. Go read a neutral message board where this game is the topic. Overwhelmingly it seems that everyone is favoring Balmer. No idea how this happened, but I imagine it has something to do with Kerry Collins and the last time he faced the Ravens in the post-season.

Just assume Giants fans are laughing their sick asses off at the Titans predicament.

Baltimore’s Outlook: Sporting the best in insanely energetic and intimidating defenses, the Ravens have made a resurgence of sort by acquiring a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over once every three possessions (whudda thunk it?). This has seemed to ignite the rest of the team, knowing their not going to be crippled by the worst starter they have, who just happens to also play the most important position. It’s a new day in Baltimore.

This team, much like the Eagles and Chargers, are peaking at exactly the right time. There defense is almost guaranteed to force turnovers, and as stated above, with Kerry Collins at the helm for the opposing offense, I can understand why most in Baltimore are feeling confident. Great defense, multiple threats at running back and a serviceable passing game often make for a Superbowl champion.

However, there is this little notion of having a rookie quarterback that should put more on edge. Sure, he’s a vast improvement over Kyle Boller or or Anthony Wright or Chris Redman (basically any quarterback that has ever played for the Ravens not named Vinny Testaverde), but he’s still a rookie. Regardless of how promising he looks. And a rookie on the road against a statistically better defense than the one he plays with can often be cause for concern for a team in the post-season.

Tennessee’s Outlook: Best record in the NFL, top five running game, top three coach and top three defense, so why is everyone picking against them? Weak close to the season would be my best guess. Sure, some of it was malaise and injury (notably: Albert Haynesworth), but that is definitely going to alter the perception of everyone with an opinion. Those of you who were confident are a little shaken, and those who were skeptical have leaped off the bandwagon they were dangling from the edge of in the first place.

Still, this team manhandled the Steelers in week sixteen and one of their three losses on the season was to the Colts the following week, where they basically threw in the towel because they had already locked up the conference’s one seed for the playoffs. One would think that would be enough to keep the bandwagon strong, but longterm memories (and by longterm, I mean beyond the previous week) are non-existent in sports, especially the NFL. “What have you done for me lately” also translates loosely into, “was it done before or after your next opponent’s recent accomplishment? Because that determines who I’m picking”.

Baltimore beat a sorry Jags team in a must win week 17 situation and absolutely destroyed the Dolphins in their wild card game, so, that’s the common consensus. Baltimore will beat the Titans. But I think this is shortsighted. How much is the dismissal of Tennessee is substantive based and how much is reactionary and superficial? Tennessee, while having the second best defense all season, rarely forced turnovers. They’re almost completely devoid of a highlight reel for a season that has to be considered a resounding success. No Ed Reed’s or Ray Lewis’. The closest thing the Titans have to anyone like that is Haynesworth, and he’s a defensive tackle. There isn’t a lot of flash to be had at defensive tackle.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: What’s Vince Young’s mindset? How’s Vince Young reacting to his team accomplishing so much while he’s on the sideline? Can Vince Young rebound from the setback earlier in the season? Will Vince Young play? Is this team better with Collins next year? What if Collins struggles early, do they play Vince Young? You might have noticed that these are all mild variations on about two different subjects, and I wouldn’t expect anything different.

Fantasy Implications: Defenses should carry the day here. Your better off going with players at skill positions who aren’t facing such distinctly tough adversaries in the NFL.com Playoff Fantasy Challenge Extravaganza. LenDale White’s had three weeks off now, Lord knows what he’s going to look like coming out of the tunnel.

The Pick: Look, I’m just as frightful about the potential for another Baltimore Ravens Superbowl as anyone. The team is streaking, they seem to have a competent coach (this is the NFL right? How often do we see one competent coach replaced with another? This has to be considered a milestone), and every thing seems to simply be working in their favor. But I can’t ignore how dominant the Titans looked all season. These teams played week five in Baltimore, where the Titans won 13-10. A lot has changed since then, namely Collins and Flacco have had time to adapt to their current surroundings. Given that the game was played in Baltimore and Tennessee still won with a 40 year-old quarterback, I think I’m going with the minority and taking the Titans to win and cover.

As evidenced by when I am writing this, though, I am in no way confident about it. And yes, I am aware I am taking the favorites to win every game and to cover all but one of them, and that in a year with this much parity, that is extremely improbable. Fuck it, after last week I’m on tilt and almost have to do this.

Enjoy the games everyone.

I can’t believe this shit actually happened. I mean, I guess they’re both in the same division and perennial playoff contenders, and with the current unlucky streak I’m on I really shouldn’t be all that surprised. Only I could take a 20-1 bet with the returning Superbowl champs and have them square off against my team in their first playoff game. At least give me until the conference championship so I have some time to adjust. If the NFL had a modicum of sense to their playoff seeding I would be getting just that. Now, instead of playing the softness that is the Arizona Cardinals, the Giants are facing elimination against my half-heartedly beloved Eagles.

Philly’s Outlook: With a resurgence that I’m almost convinced Andy Reid stumbled into when he benched McNabb in the second half of that now infamous blowout they sustained against the Ravens, the Eagles look to repeat their performance against the Giants in week 14. Coming off an expected and rather convincing win against the Vikings, many believe this Eagles team is poised to make a 2007 Giants like run for the title.

We, however, are not buying it. As nice of a consolation prize as it would be to see the Eagles win the Superbowl in lieu of the Giants winning me $630 on a $30 bet, this team is extremely erratic offensively. My mind keeps going back to that 10-3 loss and how indicative it seemed of their whole season, especially since it was in between blowout wins against the Browns and Cowboys, two teams that were considered to be at opposite ends of the NFL talent spectrum. In short, they’re just too inconsistent. Of their sixteen regular season games, in all but five of them the Eagles scored either over 35 or under 20. Four of which were under 15 (Redskins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers) and another three met or exceeded 40 (Cardinals, Cowboys, Niners). That is a wide spectrum of teams for both circumstances.

Now, it goes without saying that it’s never a bad thing to score a lot of points. They were 5-1 in games over 35. But this is the Giants in the playoffs we’re talking about, does anyone see them putting up numbers even remotely comparable to that? There best bet is to play it close to the vest and keep the Giants number of possessions limited. Attempt to keep it a low scoring affair that doesn’t give them a chance to rile up the crowd. It’s obviously not an impossible feat (they split the season series with only 11 points dividing them) and I’d actually venture to say that a healthy amount of pundits are picking them to win this game, if not the majority. But when you have two teams that are evenly matched (at least when the Giants are banged up), I tend to side with whoever has the better game plan.

C'mon, it could be their last game of the season. You had to have known I was posting a picture of Eagles cheerleaders.

New York’s Outlook: Has a team that’s been so dominant throughout a season ever had so many questions surrounding them throughout the playoffs? Perhaps the biggest one: Have they recovered from not having Plaxico Burress to bail out their quarterback yet? We know the running game and defense will be replenished, but if Philly is able to blitz as successfully as they did against Minnesota and they force Manning into some errant passes…this game could (and probably should) really come down to the wire. Especially with the secondary the Eagles currently sport (it might be unpopular, but we deem it the best in the league).

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Is Plax still a distraction? Is Tom Coughlin’s coaching style suitable for such a tenuous situation? Will this game save Donovan in Philly? Will it save Andy Reid in Philly? Can McNabb turn this game into an endorsement for Swanson family dinners? Is Eli the better Manning brother? Can Brian Westbrook shoot fire out of his hands? Will Asante Samuel drop any key receptions? Seriously, how much does this team hate Tom Coughlin?

Fantasy Implications: I’m not going to comb over it again, but if fantasy football is still of concern for you, I really like a rested Brandon Jacobs and Kevin Boss to be key contributors in this game for the Giants. On the opposite side, if I like anyone it’s obviously Westbrook. And if you think the Eagles are going to win, for reasons stated above I like their defense. A lot. Their receivers (Brown, Jackson & Curtis) are the best McNabb has been dealt since 2003, but still too inconsistent and fucking tiny.

The Pick: Giants at -4? Ehh, I like New York to win but Philly to cover. It is mildly ironic I am not taking the favorite with the smallest line of the three we’ve seen so far, but remember I am doing this from most to least confident. And I’m not entirely sure why I have this rated as more confident that the Titans-Ravens game, as prognosticating it seems like a guaranteed losing proposition. I can see an Eagles win because they’re at their peak throughout the season, but I could see them losing because of inconsistency and questionable play calling.

I could see the Giants coming through with a win because they’re simply better coached and more talented than the Eagles, but I could also see them being upset because, I kid you not, they might be contemptuous that they have to play the Eagles in the first place. Considering Philly took Arizona behind the woodshed just over a month ago and they have a better record, no one would argue that the Giants are getting the raw end of the deal between them and Carolina. They’re probably wondering right now why they went to the trouble of forcing that game in week 16 into overtime. Given the circumstances, we’ll hedge our bets and make sure we’re right on at least one account. Expertise!

Here’s the second slate of games for the last weekend of the NFL regular season. I can’t really call it the second “half”, because their is only six of them. Thank the NFL and their absurd scheduling for this gross inequity in the two posts. I’m not assuming blame for this. See this? (rubs hands together vigorously) This is me washing my hands of the situation. I will not be held responsible.

Home teams in CAPS.

NEW YORK JETS -3 Miami
Line Pick: I know New York is destined to win this game, just to piss me off, but good lord have they looked terrible. Are they getting three just because there will probably be snow on the ground? That seems awfully tentative. I guess I’ll go with common consensus just because the Jets couldn’t sink any lower than they have, and they have won games against New England and Tennessee. But I do not feel good about it. At all.

Fantasy Advice: I would not suspect anyone other than Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones are going to have solid fantasy games here. Maybe Dustin Keller or Coles will do right by you, but it doesn’t really feel like it has the makings of a high scoring game.

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 Dallas
Line Pick: This is a brutal game to pick. Both are going to go full throttle. Just because. Not for any particular or tangible reason (though I suppose Dallas could still make the playoffs, I have no idea what the tiebreakers are and everything). The only team with playoff talent that is more finicky than Dallas is Philadelphia, but Philly’s at home and it should be in extreme conditions…We’ll take Philly to cover, mostly because we want to see Dallas barred from the post-season. Not because we have any strong convictions one way or the other.

Fantasy Advice: Philly has a top three secondary and a questionable run defense, so go with Tashard Choice assuming Barber is still sidelined. Owens’ vindictiveness is unparallel, so you might see him break off a long overdue two touchdown game. Witten should have a big game because Philly’s linebackers do not offer much in the way of pass coverage. Otherwise…I think you’re looking at a standard fantasy guessing game. Curtis and DeSean Jackson are both worth considering, but look at Philly’s point totals for the past six games: 13, 7, 48, 20, 30 & 3. It warrants mentioning that the only two home games in that mix were the 30 & 48, but those were against Cleveland and Arizona. As much as we like to mock Dallas’ defense, they run circles around the two of them.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Dallas Cowboys.

Basically what I’m saying is, I have no idea what the fuck I’m talking about.

ARIZONA -6 Seattle
Line Pick: Wow. I guess I have to take Seattle given how Arizona has looked as of late. But have the Cardinals sunk so low that they can’t find the heart to beat a team in their own beshitted division? I think they may have. And anyhow, they can still win, just by less than two field goals. They only beat the Seahawks by six in Seattle, and that was a month and a half ago when people were still buying into the Cardinals as a legitimate playoff contender. Yeah, we’re feeling confident in the Seahawks now. Nice job, Cardinals.

Fantasy Advice: Despite the pick of the Seahawks, we like virtually every startable Cardinal to produce. Unless they’re playing the Vikings, they seem to be a little more comfortable at home. Or rather, they look like they’re in outer space when on the road. Which is ironic, because I’m pretty sure that dome they play in used to orbit the moon. On the Seahawks side of the ball, everyone and no one is viable. This Cardinals defense could give up 40 to the Lions at this point, but we’re still talking about Seneca Wallace here. Despite the piss poor defense, I’d be hunting for alternatives.

SAN FRANSISCO -3 Washington
Line Pick: I’m taking the Niners specifically because they’re not the team traveling cross country. I think this game will prove just how inexplicable every game the Eagles play seems to be and confirm Mike Singletary’s return to San Fran next year where he can set the blog world ablaze with his unorthodox motivation tactics, and insipid reporters can ask him awkward an misinformed questions about his departed idols.

Fantasy Advice: I don’t really have any sleepers to recommend, unless you still consider Isaac Bruce a sleeper. I don’t think you can, since he has managed to crack 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games, and he broke ten fantasy points in the other two he didn’t manage a touchdown. If you have any faith in a Washington offensive player that isn’t named Clinton Portis, then you’re a better man than I.

BALTIMORE -12.5 Jacksonville
Line Pick: I think with San Diego now having a chance to make the playoffs and the Browns residing in Cleveland, we can safely say that Jacksonville was the biggest disappointment of the season. A 12.5 point dog to a team with a rookie quarterback, and to be honest, I don’t know if it is big enough. Last year, in this same situation, I don’t think Balmer even scores 13 points, now they’re favored to win by that much. Unreal. And yeah, we’re picking the Ravens.

Fantasy Advice: So it appears I can’t mock Jacksonville receivers anymore. At least not Dennis Northcutt at home against the softest defense making the playoffs this side of Arizona, San Diego & Denver. So yeah, we expect him to be shutdown and shutout, because he’s their best option now. We tend to think even Jones-Drew is going to struggle in this game, despite getting all the carries because Fred Taylor finally remembered he’s in his fifties. The Ravens are supporting a healthy stable of running backs that are sure to see a lot of yards and a lot of carries. And based on Reggie Wayne finally producing last week, we like Derrick Mason and Michael Clayton to have similar performances.

SAN DIEGO -8 Denver
Line Pick: The Sunday night game couldn’t be more appropriate. Two underachieving teams struggling to win the second worst division in football. We like the Chargers to ultimately win this, but 8 is entirely too high. Denver is still coached by Mike Shanahan and they still have Jay Cutler. Not to mention that San Diego is a tad prone to losing home games in dramatic (traumatic?) fashion. Yeah, they really should pull out the W if for no other reason than their defense can occasionally (if infrequently) make a stop. When they played at the beginning of the season Denver won by a single point at 39-38, not that much has changed. San Diego to win, Denver to cover.

Fantasy Advice: I’m not sure what the fantasy equivalent of “bet the farm” is, but do that. Anyone whose anyone I would start in this game. Except for the defenses, of course.

That’s it for the week, enjoy the games. We’ll be back on Monday to do a retrospective of sorts.

Alright, we managed to find the time to post the first half of our picks today. So brace yourselves, the holidays are about to get explicit. And by explicit, I mean slightly sarcastic and pessimistic. Oh yeah, it’s going to be crazy.

Also, I know the holidays are a time for self-reflection and giving. So I would just like that reflect on the fact that I went 11-5 last week, and give anyone who actually reads this site some more advice to put them in the red. We didn’t do so hot in the Sunday afternoon-Monday night games (a shittastic 3-4), but damn near swept the Thursday night-early Sunday games (a virile 8-1, God damn, Niners. I’m probably the first person all season that this team actually induced anger rather than pity from).

That brings our season (AKA five week) record to 43-33-4. I know it’s completely invalid to make exceptions like this, but if you took out our one losing week, we’d be sporting a 38-24-2 record. Not to be too self-aggrandizing, but if you had put $50 on every game and taken our picks for those four weeks and for some reason didn’t heed our advice in week 15, you’d be up a little less than $700. Again, you’re welcome.

Anyhow, onto the picks. These are always tentative because you have to adjust your expectations based on who is going to rest their starters and who isn’t. Usually you can make an educated guess, as an example: I suspect this Titans-Colts game might be a race to see whose least interested in winning. I certainly wouldn’t use it as a barometer for whose going to the Superbowl.

ATLANTA -14.5 St. Louis
Line Pick: This Rams team has really been pissing me off as of late. I don’t think I’ve correctly picked for or against them in the past three weeks, and its usually been some fluky bullshit as to why not. But with Atlanta soundly in the playoffs, I think I like St Louis to cover. That is lacking confidence to be sure, because this Rams team is awful and the Falcons might want to put on a spectacle for the home crowd. But St. Louis is going to be trying, as they seem to like Jim Haslett enough to want to convince management to keep him around. I have no idea how you justify that, though. Either putting money on this or keeping Haslett.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I like Jerious Norwood to just wreck this already hobbling St. Louis defense. While Atlanta might want to win convincingly, there is no doubt in my mind that their going to play it safe with both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If you are actively participating in a championship game, bench virtually everyone whose isn’t in a contest contingent on making the playoffs. On the St. Louis side I can’t recommend anyone. There are too many available replacement players and backups that would serve you better than anything the Rams can guarantee.

New England -6.5 BUFFALO
Line Pick: Now this is dicey. I could totally see a scenario where Buffalo closes out the season being bracket buster to both the Patriots and the Broncos, getting their fans all riled up as the season winds down, then either moving to Toronto or having an epic collapse from their current state of mediocrity in 2009. On the other hand, this is the Patriots competing for a playoff spot against a team that is 1-5 in division. We’ll take the Pats to win by roughly ten or twelve, and get snubbed from the playoffs while a team they trounced last week by 37 hosts a wild card game.

Fantasy Advice: I don’t know, we’ll definitely find out how similar to Tom Brady Matt Cassel can be in this game. Basically you can’t go wrong with any of the stalwarts in this game. But since they run four different running backs and are playing a team a tad more interested than the Cardinals, I’d stay away from all of them. Also, I’m a little concerned about the Bills. I have no idea the strength of Belichick’s will, and if he wants to clobber his opponent in this game just so he and Boston Sports Nation can get all petulant about not being in the playoffs, then I’m afraid that is completely possible. Much like the Rams, I’d probably avoid every player on the Bills.

CINCINNATI -3 Kansas City
Line Pick: These are two teams that have looked a little more lively just in time for the season to end. We have no idea how motivated either of them are going to be, but we’ll take the Chiefs solely because they’re getting points. Also, Cinncy might be a little over-confident after being the fifth consecutive defense to shut out the Browns. I wish I was kidding.

Fantasy Advice: This seems like the type of game that Housh would shine in, and that KC defense has a lot of holes. You probably aren’t going to go wrong with either him or Benson. For KC, do we have any idea who there go to guy in the backfield is? Is it Larry Johnson? I swear I haven’t heard his name mentioned for about two months now. Go Dwayne Bowe or do not even bother with this team.

If it wasn't for that Lions game, this game might induce the most suicides. Now both franchises can just thank God they're not the Lions or Packers.

GREEN BAY -9.5 Detroit
Line Pick: The sadists game of the week. We do not care how bad this Lions team is, we expect them to at least come out of the gate with some intensity. Hopefully that will carry over into the second half. We’ll take them to cover, and potentially (but probably not) beat a Green Bay team that just might consider the 2008 affair a disappointment. I can’t bet on this game, though. It feels immoral. Almost like wagering on bum fights or something.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Smith should be useful, as should Calvin Johnson. We don’t want to get to excited with recommending you start Detroit Lions, though. For the Packers, as is the case with every team playing the Lions, everyone is a viable candidate. With Green Bay’s receivers, it’s tough to pick just one. We say you hedge your bets on this. If you have Greg Jennings, also plug in James Jones to improve your position with Aaron Rodgers.

Tennessee -3 INDIANAPOLIS
Line Pick: This might be the closest thing to a circus we’ve seen from two playoff bound teams. Both Jeff Fisher and Tony Dungy are way too pragmatic to actually give a shit about making a week 17 “statement”. Let me put it this way, whoever wins this game will probably lose if they square off again in the post-season. At least if both teams are trying. Since Indy seems to have struggled regularly with pedestrian teams (Lions, Jags, Browns, Chargers, Texans), well take the Titans to cover. Though there is no way we’re taking Indy to beat them in the playoffs so don’t listen to us. We’re a walking bag of contradictions.

Fantasy Advice: Anthony Gonzalez. That’s all I’m going to say for the Colts. He seems to be their only offensive weapon that is listed as questionable/probable/doubtful every week, so the risk in playing him is considerably lower. Also: Dallas Clark. Who was for this the first time since his injury listed as questionable for last weeks game against the Jags. As a result he ripped off over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. For the Titans, this might be a LenDale White special. If it starts to get embarrassing (for him and the Titans), they might put in a third stringer or even Johnson for a handful of carries. Really, though, I like White going against this run defense.

MINNESOTA -6.5 New York Giants
Line Pick: Uhhh, I know they’ve clinched everything but this is still the Giants that the Vikings are playing, right? You know, the same Giants that went full throttle in week 17 against the Pats last year even though they couldn’t improve their position as the 6th seed in the NFC. Given, the circumstances are different. But the idea of the Giants being a 6.5 point dog is a little too much for me to accept when Tavaris Jackson is quarterbacking the opposing team. I’ll roll the dice on the team that has nothing to play for, simply because I think should they meet again, the Giants would rather play the Bears than a team with Adrian Peterson coming out of the backfield.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Adrian Peterson, of course. Ahmad Bradshaw (who’s a perfectly suitable starter, much less a backup) should see a lot more carries than usual. Derrick Ward needs 52 yards to break 1,000, so that might be incentive for Coughlin to play him more than he should, unless the front office intervenes because there’s a bonus to be had if he breaks that milestone. It’s a judgment call, really. I also like both tight ends for differing reasons.

Carolina -3 NEW ORLEANS
Line Pick: Yeah, we like New Orleans to win this outright. We still are not all that enamored of Carolina, especially on the road. And New Orleans is still trying to put Drew Brees over the 5,000 yard mark for the season. Not to mention they’re 6-1 at home (accounting for all but one of their wins) and have an offense that’s as potent as any in the league. Oh, and Carolina’s coming off a game where they gave up over 300 yards on the ground. I don’t care who you are, if you’re giving up that many rushing yards, then I expect to see a Lions or Chiefs logo next to your name, not an emblem that indicates you’ve already clinched a playoff spot.

Fantasy Advice: Everyone seems to be a viable candidate in this game. I would steer clear of Jonathan Stewart, however. I know the Saints have a shaky run defense, but he’s not exactly himself without the cozy confines of whatever you call the stadium the Panthers play in. But yeah, Thomas, Williams, Smith, Muhammad, Moore, Colston: You have the green light on all of them.

PITTSBURGH -10.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: I have no idea if the Steelers are still playing for anything and frankly I don’t care. Not only are they at home and these two are pretend rivals, Cleveland couldn’t muster a single field goal against the Bengals in their own stadium, much less a touchdown. I fully expect the Browns to finish this season without having scored and offensive touchdown in the last six weeks of it. My God. You know, I am always hesitant to claim something best/worst of all time, usually because it sounds simple-minded and impossible to quantify. But with Ken Dorsey lining up under center, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team worse than these Cleveland Browns. And yes, I am including this years Lions, who I think would mop the floor with Cleveland if they were fortunate enough to be playing them on Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Whichever Steelers running back is healthy because everyone will want to get this over and done with as quickly as possible. If Cleveland is going to score, it won’t be via Braylon Edwards that does it. I do not like any of these players going up against Pittsburgh’s defense, but you might be able to find a dark horse in Josh Cribbs or Jerome Harrison. Especially if Crennel would go out with a little foresight and given his options, play Cribbs at quarterback. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

TAMPA BAY -13 Oakland
Line Pick: Much to our chagrin, JaMarcus Russell has looked surprisingly adequate the past couple weeks. But with Tampa vying for a playoff spot at home I have to take them to cover. Especially since they lost 34-7 in the last road game they played. And that was just down the coastline. Oakland is traveling cross country and playing a 1PM EST game. That’s just cruel.

Fantasy Advice: Well, all of a sudden Tampa is running three running backs between Dunn, Graham and Williams. So your guess is as good as mine. Antonio Bryant is the closest thing to a lock on this Buccaneers team. Take that for what its worth. On Oakland: No one. Unless Johnnie Lee Higgins comes through for all us loyal members of Raider nation.

HOUSTON -2.5 Chicago
Line Pick: Houston seems to be one of the few teams that excels at home compared to on the road, but the Bears are playing for the playoffs. In short, I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Just because it wouldn’t make any sense based on what happened in week 16, I’m taking the Texans to cover and follow through on the back-to-back 8-8 seasons that I’m sure Texans fans fucking love. But this is one game I’d avoid like the Sex and The City movie.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson always perform. Even against defenses as staunch as Chicago’s. Ironically we’d stay away from Matt Schaub, as we see him throwing 2-3 interceptions this game. Matt Forte is about the only player on Chicago anyone can ever recommend. If anyone ever tells you to start Devin Hester and attempts to give some long-winded explanation as to why, stop him in his tracks and tell him he’s an asshole. This might seem harsh, but there is no reason for anyone to ever have a “hunch” about someone like Devin Hester on this Bears team. Greg Olsen is pretty much the only other player you can take a risk on.

Alright, that’s it for the 1PM games. 4PM and prime timers later today.

Well, we actually covered last night, but how in the world was it so close? Indy’s supposed to be one of three teams in the AFC with a legitimate shot at winning the Superbowl, not someone who needs 4th quarter rallies and blind luck to beat a teams like the Jags and Lions. But anyhow, from a fantasy perspective, it was a good night for your truly. I was sporting a Dallas Clark, Peyton Manning & Maurice Jones-Drew combination the likes of which I haven’t seen all season.

We’ll put this in perspective: in an average week, you’re all but guaranteed to win your game if you can amass upwards of around 140 points (I think only twice has someone eclipsed this number and still lost). After the performances of those three, I am currently on pace to score 250. Sorry for the bit of self-aggrandizement, but I’m sure some of you can also feel quite content about the onslaught of fantasy production last night.

Alright, only seven afternoon/Sunday/Monday night games. Whenever I write this post, I tend to wear out towards the end. Because at the very least, the manner in which we doll out fantasy advice is the same for each game, just with different names. Really, I can’t imagine there is anything I could say that will change your mind, so I just mail in some bullshit about what I expect to happen in each game, which is no more or less valid than anyone else’s bullshit. So, with that said, here’s my line picks and some fantasy “analysis” that took us roughly five minutes to conjure up.

DENVER -7 Buffalo
Line Pick: So, the Broncos are supposed to cover a touchdown with that defense. Am I missing something? I know Buffalo isn’t making the playoffs, but have they been getting blown out by average teams lately? Their last three losses have been 27-31, 16-3 and 10-3. The 16-3 game came at the hands of the Dolphins, and I’m willing to bet that Denver’s defense hasn’t held anyone under 29 points all season. I’ll take the points, though it seems too obvious.

Fantasy Advice: With that said, Cutler has been deadly at mile high and they’re starting to run thin at running back with their backup fullback now out for the season. If you want to gamble on Tatum Bell, be my guest. But you deserve to have your luggage stolen if you do. Buffalo is a sea of unreliable middle-tier players (Even Marshawn Lynch only has 7 touchdowns). But going against Denver, it’s a fire sale. I’d start Brandom Stokley if it wasn’t for my bias against white receivers not named Wayne Chrebet or Wes Welker.

Houston -7 OAKLAND
Line Pick: Well, I guess I have to start taking Houston seriously now. Seven points against the Raiders? Sounds like a go. On a side note, who the hell are the Raiders going to draft this off-season? Michael Crabtree? James Lauranitis? Some lineman we can’t name at the moment? Is there an aspect of their team that doesn’t need addressing? Personally, if I’m a Raiders fan, I like the notion of taking a quarterback as a second or third round pick. Just not Tebow in the first round (which given the way management has drafted, is something you might see yourself worrying about).

He'd look pretty good not producing in the silver and black because the franchise that drafted him is dysfunctional. Am I right?

Fantasy Advice: Yeah, everyone involved with the Texans passing game and Steve Slaton are mandatory starts, Oakland is a wasteland for fantasy football. We’ve made similar statements about other teams and players yesterday, but if you would consider starting any Raiders, you probably aren’t still in the playoffs anyhow. So don’t worry about it.

New York Jets -4.5 SEATTLE
Line Pick: Hmm, the Jets have been trudging along these past three weeks, in fact the only reason they haven’t lost three in a row was Buffalo inexplicably squandered away a win against them last Sunday. Actually, forget that. Buffalo squandering away wins is kind of there MO. There is nothing inexplicable about it. But still, this is the Seahawks we’re talking about. Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, it might be good enough to beat the Rams in St. Louis, but if Favre loses this week 16 game in a tight playoff race, it might the last nail that finally motivates him to hang it up. And since we’re convinced he’s never going to retire, we like the Jets to cover.

Fantasy Advice: I guess we can officially say we drafted Thomas Jones in the second round a year too early. It’s amazing what having a healthy threat at quarterback can do for a running back’s numbers, isn’t it? Anyhow, I like him and Leon Washington this week, along with Dustin Keller. On the Seahawks side of the ball: see my overview of the Raiders. Alright, maybe Deon Branch is a reasonable option, but we recommend against it.

MINNESOTA -3.5 Atlanta
Line Pick: We’re still waiting for this Vikings team to drop a tough game, but it has been four weeks now and every win has been convincing. We are hesitant to take any NFC South team on the road as stated ad nauseam here. What I need is a moment of clarity with this one.
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Alright, I’ll take Atlanta to cover but for Minnesota to win. Two teams that primarily run the ball and play relatively physical defense, a close margin of victory seems plausible, if not probable. Even still, just stay away from this one unless you’re on some sort of Nick Cage in Leaving Las Vegas conclusion.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I hate stating the obvious but both running backs are a go. Speaking of which, I like Adrian Peterson as the MVP this year, especially if they end up winning the division. The guy is probably going to break 1,600 yards with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson as his quarterback. Every team knows he’s running the ball, and yet virtually no team has been able to stop him. In short, he isn’t the standard, expendable running back that could be replaced with a 4th round draft pick in 2009. He’s a game changer, the likes of which I don’t think we’ve seen since Barry Sanders (though they have completely different running styles). Usually it’s about the machine, but in this case, Peterson is the machine.

Philadelphia -5 WASHINGTON
Line Pick: Why the hell is this a 4PM game? Anyway, outside of the NFC South teams, virtually everyone in the NFL is comparable on the road vs. at home, except for Washington. This team seems to be considerably worse when playing at RFK or whatever it’s called now. Still, Philly — despite three impressive wins in a row now — doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me; but we don’t seem to have any other options. I hate to make such an uninspired prediction, but we’ll take the Eagles to cover five against the Redskins.

Fantasy Advice: Washington is turning into what everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season (Plug in “We are who we thought they were!” jokes here). And last time they played Philly, the Eagles completely shut out Santana and most of the passing game, except for Cooley. I like Cooley and potentially Portis if anyone can guarantee that he won’t walk onto the field dressed like Greenman. For the Eagles, they seemed to spread the ball around a little more against Cleveland, but like we mentioned earlier this week, Cleveland can make anyone look like a pro-bowler. Stick with the stalwarts (basically just Westbrook), and maybe Curtis or Jackson if you’re feeling frisky. Hey, what does Reggie Brown have to do to get cut from this team? He’s in James Thrash/Todd Pinkston territory at this point.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Yeah, they’ve let me down the past couple weeks, but Carolina’s bandwagon is mighty crowded right now. To be quite honest we’re surprised the Panthers aren’t favored. But Vegas appears to know better, and that the skewed perception of them is the result of two home blowouts against Tampa and Denver, and a road win against an apparently overrated Green Bay team, though it was impressive at the time. Still, there are a lot of caveats to these games that make the wins look much more impressive than they really are. Namely, the Packers blow and Carolina is 8-0 at home to explain the two most recent wins. In fact they haven’t had a close game yet against any respectable team on the road, which is what the Giants are with or without Burress. We’ll lay the points and expect the Giants to reclaim their thrown as front runners.

Fantasy Advice: I like Williams, Jacobs and Ward a lot more than I like Jonathan Stewart, who personifies Carolina’s struggles away from Charlotte. Hixon and Toomer should be serviceable. Or rather, if the Giants are actually going to cover three points, they’re going to have to be. I’d stay away from Muhsin Muhammad if at all possible (note: we don’t think it’s possible for us) and whatever wide outs Carolina is sporting not named Steve Smith; as we’re inclined to think Delhomme wets the bed on Sunday night.

Chicago -4 Green Bay
Line Pick: Did Matt Forte break his fibula last game? Why is this only four, especially with some of the less favorable lines the Pack have been getting against lesser opponents? Something’s afoot, or maybe it’s just the snowfall in the desert that’s fucking with everyone. Oh, that’s why. Right before Green Bay began this descent into complete shittery they shellacked the Bears 37-3 and everyone was declaring them the best team in the NFC not in the East. Anyhow, we’re still taking Chicago to dish out some comeuppance from that ridiculous performance.

Fantasy Advice: I’d stay away from Donald Driver (Again, I don’t know if we can) and anyone not named Greg Jennings on the Packers. Chicago doesn’t offer much other than Forte in the way of fantasy either. Put it this way, if you’re relying on this game to amount in a fantasy comeback for you, then I recommend watching a movie while it’s on.

Alright, that’s probably it for the week. Enjoy the games should we part ways until Monday.

I haven’t watched nary a second of last night’s Bears-Saints game, but from looking at my fantasy page, it appears Reggie Bush either re-aggrevated his injury or was benched for fear of doing so. Either way, between him and Matt Forte, my opponent only managed roughly 22 points, with about 16 of them coming from the Bears running back. On the other hand, we didn’t play Colston because he’s had maybe four good games all season. Naturally, for what’s probably the second time we’ve benched him since he’s been healthy, he gets in the end zone. Fuck that Saints team and all their unpredictability.

There were considerably more games for last night and with the 1PM slate on Sunday, which pisses us off incredibly. Why does the NFL format their television schedule in the manner that they do? For the most part, every market gets four games on Sundays (three in the afternoon, one at night) and one game on Monday night. You can’t even consider the Thursday night game part of the lineup because it’s only available on the NFL Network (unless of course the NFL allows your local market to pick up the home team’s game that otherwise wouldn’t be available to them, I guess we should be grateful?).

So for the most popular sport in the country, they offer the layman under a third of all possible matchups on any given week (give or take one or two). Why not sparse it out a little more? Of the 16 games available to them after the byes, 13 of them air in only two different time slots. Does this not seem illogical? Even if you have NFL Network, you can only realistically follow one or two games at a time (depending on how many televisions you can cram into a living room).

Wouldn’t they be better served to start games at intersecting times. Maybe a couple at 11AM, a few at 1PM, some at 3PM, several at 5PM and save two for the prime time slots at 8PM on Sunday and Monday night? That is a lot more availability and as a result a lot more revenue, is it not? Look at The Oscars, or any entertainment awards show, they don’t just start chucking little trophies across the audiotorium to try and get it over with. No, they stretch it out over an unfathomable length of time to milk every dollar out of it they can.

I never thought the NFL equivalent of this format would be favorable.

Anyhow, I do not mean to tell the NFL its business, they’re obviously making money hand over fist with their current arrangement with both the broadcast networks, ESPN and the NFL network. But maybe if everything with the NFL wasn’t so exclusive, they wouldn’t have to lay off 150 people.

Onto the picks, home team in CAPS. We’re 0-0-1 on the week after last night’s game.

ARIZONA Pick ‘em Minnesota
Line Pick: I’ll take Arizona at home, despite them being 3-7 against all non NFC West teams. Minnesota is actually great in domes, so this might be unwise, but I think the Vikings are due for a loss.

Fantasy Advice: It might be a good day to start Berrian or whatever other receivers are on Minnesota, since it doesn’t seem like the Cardinals can stop anyone from passing the ball. But you do so at your own peril. This will probably be the first and last time I recommend starting a receiver who has either Gus Ferotte or Tavarais Jackson throwing to him. Minnesota has a great defense so you might want to consider benching Warner if you drafted him as a backup and he became your starter as the season moved forward. At this point, can you justify benching any Cardinals receivers? I say no.

NEW ENGLAND -7 Oakland
Line Pick: Yeesh, The Pats have left a lot to be desired the last couple weeks, but we’ll still take them to cover here. These two teams are polar opposites in terms of professionalism. Just based on that alone I can’t take Oakland with seven in Foxboro.

Fantasy Advice: I’d expect Moss to be out for a little vengeance, but I can’t recall a more indifferent hall of famer. Welker, Kevin Faulk and Cassel should all be safe options, and of course you should always start a defense who’s playing the Raiders. On the other side of the ball, much like the Bengals of Cincinnati, I wouldn’t go near any of their players.

CAROLINA -7 Denver
Line Pick: This Denver team has been an enigma for quite some time, but Carolina has been on a role and they’re deadly at home. I think you have your answer right their. Yes, I am aware of Jay Cutler’s arm strength, at this point I hope he’s mentioning it ironically.

Fantasy Advice: It’s a fire sale for Carolina Panthers. Stewart, Williams, Delhomme, Muhammad, Smith…regardless of how many you have, they all have to be starting. Denver…just play the regulars. You could make a stretch with someone like Stokley if you’re in a deep league, but Carolina’s defense is nothing to sneeze at.

BALTIMORE -2 Pittsburgh
Line Pick: Alright, maybe we didn’t do this Baltimore team justice last week, but we have a hard time believing they should be a favorite against a solidified and respected Pittsburgh defense. For this matchup, we’re going with the better of the two quarterbacks. Roethlisberger, though inconsistent and sort of disappointing throughout the course of the season, has faced defenses like this for four seasons now, in late season games against viable playoff teams. Flacco looks good beating up on Cleveland. We’ll take the points on the road.

Fantasy Advice: Pssh, Michael Clayton has been coming on a lot more since Baltimore discovered how to move the ball downfield, but it is hard to recommend anyone other than top-tier players against Pitt. The Steelers have Hines Ward, two running backs and a slew of other players that you have to reconsider starting against Baltimore. The offense, much a result of their quarterback, is rather erratic. I like Ward and Parker, but don’t expect more than a touchdown out of anyone else.

DALLAS -3 New York Giants
Line Pick: So they lose one game because of some errant dropped passes by a shell shocked wide receiver, and now they’re a 3-point dog against an 8-6 team? Of course they are. They’re playing the Cowboys in Dallas. Everyone is a dog. This Dallas team has too many “stars” to be an underdog, am I right? If you can’t tell, I’m taking the points with the Giants.

Fantasy Advice: Well, like we said, there are a lot of stars on Dallas, and the circumstances are such that I think you have to cap it at them. You really don’t want Miles Austin in their against this pass rush. Or Patrick Crayton. Tashard Choice if Barber isn’t playing. And Barber, whose had a Roethlisberger like season, is actually questionable. For the Giants, I would actually expect Ward to get his fair share of carries and for Toomer, Boss and Hixon to all produce.

PHILADELPHIA -14 Cleveland
Line Pick: Let’s just make it a rule of thumb, and give the points in every single game the Browns play for the next three weeks. Ken Dorsey. My God, they might as well put the Frisbee dog from PCU back there. For next week’s game against the Bengals, they should have David Spade get on the intercom and say, “Doesn’t matter who wins, because they’re all losers”.

Fantasy Advice: Westbrook, McNabb, Jackson and maybe even Buckhalter depending on how out of control things get. Oh, and with Dorsey lining up under center, I would use the same approach that I recommended for teams playing Oakland. On Cleveland’s side of the ball…Um, in really deep leagues, Jerome Harrison or Josh Cribbs might be worth a gamble. You can’t really play any of their receivers. Not that the Browns have used Dante Stallworth appropriately all season.

That’s it for the week. Enjoy the games and we’ll be back on Monday.

Our apologies for not posting yesterday, it wasn’t anything personal or due to a lack of talent, but extreme technical issues at work and with this site. It would have just been some nonsensical drivel to meet our daily quota anyways.

If your league has a playoff, week 15 is the one week where every league is actively participating in it. Either you’re winding down (semi-final or final) or just starting up (quarterfinal). Very few leagues only use four teams in their playoffs (which would be relegated to weeks 16 & 17, and seems way too exclusive for leagues over 8 teams, and even then, why not just throw every team in it? It’s a fucking fantasy league, not a gulag), so I wish you all that made it the best of luck. Unless of course you’re in my league, then I wish you nothing but misfortune and multiple injuries to each of your players.

Anyhow, since we missed our quota yesterday, today we’re going to exceed it with line picks and fantasy advice for tonight and Sunday’s 1PM games.

We kkkiiinnnnda came back down to earth with our NFL picks this week, going a dismal 7-9 thanks to unsuspectingly ugly wins from Denver and New England, absurd risks like St. Louis and Oakland, and no-shows from Tampa and Washington. That’s right, it’s everyone else’s fault but mine. If half of these games go the way they were supposed to, I finish 10-6 yet again, and increase my seasonal record to 30-16-2. Now I’m mired in mediocrity at 27-19-2. I am not hesitant to remind you that I still remain well over .500, but not so much so that I can claim savant status. We said it when we started doing this and we’ll say it again: Do not gamble on the NFL if you have alternatives.

But anyhow, onto this week’s picks. As always, home teams are in CAPS. See that, it’ll look just like that. But with different letters.

CHICAGO -3 New Orleans
Line Pick: Well, I’m taking the cold weather team in the cold weather town over the warm weather team that also plays in a dome. Call us crazy, but the Bears being unable to cover three against a team this inconsistent would be a good indicator that they’re not making the playoffs. They probably aren’t, but choking away this game means they wouldn’t have won but a couple games all season.

Fantasy Advice: See, for similar reasons stated above, we really like Matt Forte to show up to this game. I can’t think of any mid-level players to recommend for this one, but you’re probably not going to go wrong with either Greg Olsen or Jeremy Shockey.

ATLANTA -3 Tampa
Line Pick: Alright, it kinda fucked us going against the home NFC South team last week, so we’re going to remain steady this week. Atlanta at home should be able to cover three, especially after that dismal performance from Tampa on Monday night. Still, we will acknowledge that we are struggling with the notion of Tampa dropping two in a row. Perhaps they’re due, though.

Fantasy Advice: We’re going to go ahead and recommend Harry Douglas for this game. Call it a hunch. Also, since Warrick Dunn appears to be the only running back left in the NFL getting over 80% of his teams carries you should really be starting him as well. Do not be fooled by the Antonio Bryant game from last week. It was on primetime and flashy and admittedly impressive, he isn’t the type of receiver to replicate a performance like that.

Washington -7 CINCINNATI
Line Pick: Probably more so than any other team in the league, we cannot fathom what this team is going to do week in, week out. But since they appear to be imploding and they’re on the road…nope. No, we cannot do it. We refuse to take Cinncy, even with seven at Paul Brown. Take Washington because they are still probably under the impression that they’re in the playoff race.

Fantasy Advice: Again, we can’t recommend anyone from Cinncy. This Washington defense, even with the fallout on offense, is stingy. On Washington, well, we like the receivers (Thomas, Moss and Randle El) and now that Shaun Alexander is no longer around to get two carries a game and Portis is losing his mind, we like Betts to see some playing time.

Sometimes, image is pretty telling of personality.

INDIANAPOLIS -17 Detroit
Line Pick: Wow that’s a sizable line. But Detroit probably realizes there only winnable game from last week and are going to be rather unmotivated to give a shit. And Indy seems to be adjusting to their new stomping grounds quite nicely. We saw last week that Indy can dispatch the lesser teams at home quite handily.

Fantasy Advice: Anthony Gonzalez, Calvin Johnson and maybe Shaun McDonald. Obviously you’re going to start Manning. Addai has been slow to produce as of late, if he’s actually playing I wouldn’t hesitate to put him in. This Lions run defense made LenDale White look agile on Thanksgiving.

San Diego -5 KANSAS CITY
Line Pick: Well, speaking of teams I have a difficult time assessing, San Diego is the NFL equivalent of DaVinci Code (I haven’t seen or read it, so if it isn’t as much of an enigma as everyone makes it out to be, I stand corrected). I know Arrowhead is a difficult place to play in and the Chargers are fickle, but they never seem to struggle with the truly terrible teams in the league. I’ll give the points, but I feel like we’re doing that way too frequently this week.

Fantasy Advice: Darren Sproles broke off a huge game last week, could that have been the turning point we predicted about six weeks too early? Yes. Yes, I think it is. Especially since Tomlinson and the rest of the franchise still thinks he’s the better option, they might be more susceptible to play who they think is the least valuable of the two. On KC’s side, I like Bowe to come through big for his owners. Gonzalez, Rivers and San Diego’s receivers should all be viable options. Even Malcolm Floyd.

ST LOUIS (no line) Seattle
Line Pick: You have my sympathies if you do not have Direct TV and are forced to watch this game. Even if you’re a fan of one of these two teams. Shit, at least when you’re watching the Cards wail away on your boys, at least you’re watching a playoff team. Anyhow, since I can’t find a line and am picking a winner, I’ll take the home team even though Seattle showed a little something against New England last week. It must be sad when your team’s best game of the season is in a loss.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I don’t know what to tell you. Start everybody or start nobody. St Louis’ defense is atrocious and Seattle’s isn’t far behind. The Rams produce a better offense and Seattle spreads it around a little too much to actually recommend a receiver. I suppose if you have Deon Branch then your inclined to start him against the Rams. But man does that feel tentative with Seneca Wallace throwing to him on the road.

Miami -6.5 San Fransisco
Line Pick: Alright, San Fran appears to have made a leap as evidenced against the Jets last week. But that was at home. None the less, Miami can still win this game and not cover, and they’re not exactly prone to blowing teams out. Even though we feel like everyone is buying into Mike Singletary way too prematurely, we’ll take San Fran to cover but to lose.

Fantasy Advice: Ted Ginn, who we seem to recommend every week and he never comes through, we are going to recommend yet again. Because he eventually has to have another good game, right? RIGHT? Both defenses are pretty apt so in reality we’re going to say start both of them. Though they’ll both give up some points, they’ll also create turnovers against inconsistent (some might say shitty) offenses.

NEW YORK JETS -7 Buffalo
Line Pick: Well, we’ll take the Jets. I know they’ve had a couple bad losses (Denver at home and the Niners in San Fran), but they’ll be out for blood. And a conference rival at home is a great opportunity for everyone to hop back on the “Jets will compete for the Superbowl” bandwagon. Brett Favre makes people do some crazy things.

Fantasy Advice: Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller & Jerricho Cotchery should all produce for their owners. I have a hard time recommending that you bench any starter on either of these teams that you may have. Except for Lee Evans. Whenever in doubt, always bench Lee Evans.

Green Bay -2.5 JACKSONVILLE
Line Pick: Wow, lose to the Texans and you lose Vegas’ respect. Personally, I like the Green Bay to win by at least three, as Jacksonville seems fundamentally broken. Two disappointing teams, we’ll take the least disappointing of the two in Green Bay.

Fantasy Advice: Jacksonville’s mystique on defense seems to have left with Marcus Stroud, so we’ll go ahead and recommend Driver, Lee and Ryan Grant. On Jacksonville’s side, you have to start Jones-Drew because Green Bay’s rush defense is surprisingly terrible, but everyone else is benchable. If Matt Jones could have feigned that suspension for one more week, we’d throw him into the mix as well, but funny things happen when you get pulled over with a massive amount of cocaine on you.

Tennessee -3 HOUSTON
Line Pick: Wow, beat Green Bay on the road and everyone is fooled, huh? I mean, they’re at home for this one but we’re talking about a 12-1 team. Lay the points, take the best team in the league to beat a 6-7 team on the road convincingly.

Fantasy Advice: Yeah, I like Chris Johnson, but LenDale White feels due for one of those 5 carry 12 yard games that he was producing before he complained about his playing time against the Jets. Houston’s two wideouts (Walter and Johnson) are must starts at this point. I would bench Slaton if you have another option, though. No one runs well against this Tennessee team. For much different reasons, I wouldn’t start either quarterback.

That’s it for today, the rest of this week’s games tomorrow.

Our apologies for being so untimely, we had to write this at our late lunch.

It’s time to post our line picks for the upcoming week, and I hate to do it but I told you it would happen. After a strong 10-4-2 start in week 12, we followed up in week 13 with a similar 10-6, bring our record against the lines to 20-10-2 on the season. Or rather, since we’ve been doing this. If it happens again this week and we increase our winning percentage, I think it’s safe to label us a savant for these purposes. Again, you’re welcome.

As far as fantasy advice is concerned, we’re working with a contrasting success rate. That is, our fantasy suggestions would be justification for throwing us into prison, considering hosting a website on fantasy football is supposed to suggest we might be an authority on the subject.

Onto the lines/fantasy advice. Home team in caps.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 Oakland
Line Pick: Well fuck me. I didn’t even realize there was another shitty Thursday night game tonight until just now. See, that’s why we do this. So we actually give a shit about the NFL Tuesday-Saturday. Anyhow, I’d probably take Oakland here. The Charger defense is wretched and Oakland’s is good enough to keep it within a score. I hate doing this because it puts a modicum of faith in JaMarcus Russell or whoever Cable plugs in at quarterback to accomplish anything. I can’t wait to read later tonight that Oakland lost by ten.

Fantasy Advice: No one on the Raiders unless we have a clear cut picture on who’s getting the majority of the carries in their backfield. San Diego should produce good games from any speculative number of wide outs, and Tomlinson is capable of delivering. But putting faith in San Diego to live up to expectations is obviously a futile enterprise. In short, I have no fucking idea. Start who you normally would and bench Vincent Jackson if you think he isn’t due for a good game.

CHICAGO -6.5 Jacksonville
Line Pick: Well, both teams suffered disappointing losses last week, but Chicago is still contending for the playoffs. That, combined with the home field advantage and Jacksonville’s banged up offensive line, I think is enough to lay the points with the Bears. Still, I take this line with a lot of trepidation.

Fantasy Advice: If last week is any indication, Kyle Orton and Matt Forte are going to light this defense up. You could say the same thing about David Gerrard but I have no idea who he’d throw to and Jones-Drew is amazingly sporadic with his exceptional play. You have to start him, but it feels like a week to week ordeal. Not once have I felt confident about a Jones-Drew game. yet he averages over 16 points a week and I’ve started every week he hasn’t had a bye.

Minnesota (no line) DETROIT
Line Pick: When I say “no line”, it means for the life of me I can’t find one anywhere. And that is understandable. With both Kevin and Pat Williams suspended for four games as a result of the steroid scandal no one recalls or gives a shit about, Vegas probably needs a couple extra days to recalibrate their stance. I can understand their trepidation. Much of Minnesota’s success hinges on their pass rush. When you remove two potential pro-bowlers from it, well, it becomes conceivable that they could lose to a 0-12 team on the road. If the line is over ten we say take Detroit, under stick with the Vikings and realize that if you’re picking the Lions to outright lose this game, you’re picking them to go 0-16, which I think is a fitting conclusion to the Matt Millen era. Hey, remember when they were 6-2 last season and everyone though they’d make the playoffs? Man, that was a wild two months.

Fantasy Advice: I still like Peterson and Taylor to come through with some good numbers. Calvin Johnson should have a monster day with the crippled front seven from the Vikes, depending on just how crippled you consider them to be, Kevin Smith and Shaun McDonald might prove to be viable options as well.

GREEN Bay -5.5 Houston
Line Pick: Hmm, a dome team going up to Green Bay in December, that always works out well. Even though Houston covered handily, I have no idea why they are getting relatively generous lines. They are 5-7 right? I’ll take the Pack to win by a couple scores.

Fantasy Advice: Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Kevin Walter, Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant & Aaron Rodgers should all come through for their owners. I also like Green Bay’s defense to rack up some points. They have an uncanny ability to make mediocre quarterbacks look like Akili Smith.

TENNESSEE -13.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: Unless you like Ken Dorsey going up against one of the two best defenses in the league on the road, I’d lay the points.

Fantasy Advice: Chirs Johnson & LenDale White should tally up some yards. I actually like Justin Gage to come through with a serviceable performance. As for Cleveland…if Lucifer hasn’t sucked whatever dexterity was left in Braylon Edwards I don’t know if we’ll be able to tell, because I just can’t see Ken Dorsey getting him the ball on a consistent basis. In other words, the passing game will be shit, and as a result the running game will be shit. I wouldn’t start any Browns unless you feel differently about Dorsey, and then you can only justify the tight end (Winslow or Heiden) or Edwards.

INDIANAPOLIS -13.5 Cincinnati
Line Pick: Tough week for the NFL in Ohio, but when isn’t it? Hahaha. But seriously, I’d take the Colts, who’ve struggled to cover lately but at least it was on the road. In the safe haven of that state of the art ice skating rink they play in, Manning should be able to redeem himself from last week in Cleveland. Either way, the Colts are fucked in the playoffs if they’re struggling that much on the road against the Browns. If they have to go to New England, New York, Denver or Baltimore, cold weather teams with functioning offenses, it will be lambs to the slaughter. In short, some things never change and Manning will never look comfortable with a millimeter of snow on the ground. Honestly, the aliens in Signs reacted more professionally to the site of water than Manning does to snow.

Fantasy Advice: Manning, Dallas Clark and Addai should all run rough shot over Marvin Lewis’ improved from 2007 but still terrible defense.

A reference to the only good Shyamalan film? I guess.

NEW ORLEANS -3 Atlanta
Line Pick: Even though both Carolina and Atlanta disproved our “NFC South sucks balls on the road” theory, the records are still really, really disproportionate. Not to mention both Carolina and San Diego we’re still playing inferior opponents, even if they were impressive wins. But of the four in the division, The Saints have the biggest disparity in road vs. home performances. I like New Orleans to cover and make a late season push to attempt to win this division. They’ll need a lot of assistance (divisional opponent losses), but it isn’t beyond comprehension. I don’t think anyone is looking at the Panthers or Bucs and thinking these teams are full-proof.

Fantasy Advice: Any Saint receiver you can get your hands on. With Deuce McAllister out Pierre Thomas should be indispensable. On the Falcons side I like Turner, Wade and Jenkins to put up some points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 Philadelphia
Line Pick: I know the Eagles looked impressive against the Cardinals and I know they always play the Giants harder than anyone else in the league, but I’m not betting against this Giants team until they give me reason too. I would be lying if I said I didn’t have a looming sense of a 3-interception day from Manning, but I am going with the favorite. Also, lets be honest, I think everyone’s concerns about Warner in cold weather were validated last week.

Fantasy Advice: Jacobs/Ward, Toomer, Hixon and Boss will all have respectable performances, while I wouldn’t know where to start with Philly. Is LJ Smith still playing? Go with him if he is. I could see DeSean Jackson breaking off a large touchdown on Sunday, but it hinges on McNabb getting enough time in the pocket to get it to him.

4PM games through Monday later tonight.

Our second round of picks for the weekend, read part one covering the 1PM games here. The brevity here is going to be uncanny. My apologies for that.

(Home team in caps)

SAN DIEGO -5 Atlanta
Line Pick: San Diego has had as many heartbreaking losses as any team that I can recall in a single season, and there really isn’t any reason to think this would be any different. But with the Falcons coming off a huge home win against the Panthers and with the Colts ripping out the hearts of the Chargers faithful again last week, we expect both teams to come back to earth in their own fashion. Take San Diego, give the points.

Fantasy Advice: Vincent Jackson hasn’t let down his owners in quite some time, we expect his streak of stellar performances to continue. I think Tomlinson is going to be putting up lackluster numbers for at least the rest of this season, he just seems to have lost a spring in his step. You have my sympathies, Tomlinson owners. Because you can’t justify benching him. On Atlanta, look for big games from Michael Jenkins and potentially Jerius Norwood, that’s if Harry Douglas doesn’t eat up all their touches.

OAKLAND -3 Kansas City
Line Pick: If you’re a fan of either of these teams, then you have our condolences. Not only because your team is absolutely beshitted, but because you probably have some motivation to watch this game despite your better judgment. I can’t even fathom what I’d rather do than watch this game…help someone move, make an airport pickup, tour the rain forests of South America naked; the list is endless. Just take KC and the points if you’re planning on doing a parlay with every game on Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Bench all of them. Larry Johnson could rip off 200 yards and I wouldn’t regret benching that vile fuck.

NEW ENGLAND -1 Pittsburgh
Line Pick: Hmmmmm, you’re basically picking a winner here. So it’s really a matter of how legitimate you think Matt Cassel is. Have these past two weeks been an anomaly or is he Tom Brady 2.0? I tend to think it’s somewhere in between, but I am going with the Steelers here. They are inconsistent but this strikes me as the type of game they show up for. Not to mention Pittsburgh has the top rated defense (passing and rushing) in the league.

Fantasy Advice: We really like Welker and Jabbar Gaffney to have great games and for Nate Washington and Heath Miller to rival him. These are two of the most efficient teams in the league, we suspect their going to have to reach above and beyond their top-tier players to move the ball.

NY JETS -7.5 Denver
Line Pick: Jets in a landslide. Unless they can clone Al Wilson and put this game in Denver, I do not expect the Broncos to come within a mile of winning this game, much less a touchdown.

Fantasy Advice: That said, Cutler, Marshall and Royale should get you some numbers. You pretty much have to start any of the following for the Jets: Favre, Coles, Cotchery, Stuckey, Washington, Jones and Keller. Remember, Denver gave up 31 to Oakland of all teams.

MINNESOTA -3 Chicago
Line Pick: Pretty solid Sunday night game, all things considered. If it goes to overtime I think it should be settled by a fist fight between Rex Grossman and Tavaris Jackson for the win.

Fantasy Advice: Two great defenses going against two teams that struggle throwing the ball. I think you have your answer right there.

HOUSTON -3.0 Jacksonville
Line Pick: Kind of an eyesore for a Monday nighter, maybe that explains the bizarre line. I’d take the Jags against the money line, much less if they’re getting three points. Seriously, is Jones-Drew out getting another hyphen for his name on Monday? Why the hell are they getting points in this?

Fantasy Advice: Anyone that isn’t a Jacksonville receiver or a Houston quarterback should work well.

That’s it until Monday. Thank fucking Christ.

So 2-1 isn’t a terrible start to the week, But let’s be honest, the only game that I could have potentially missed was the game I ended up missing. No one outside of Washington state or Michigan could have realistically predicted the Seahawks or Lions to cover. I guess Schlereth and Wingo were right about Warner and I was wrong about Boldin (but right about Fitzgerald and Breaston). I only saw from mid-second quarter on (fucking family obligations), but by my estimation, Boldin had at least four dropped passes (including two drops in the end zone on the same drive). Those fucking SEC, Texas and SoCal schools better thank Christ they aren’t forced to travel north for bowl games.

On a personal note, nothing makes you feel fucked like a fantasy performer dropping four touchdowns on you and in the process racking up more fantasy points in one game than he’s had in the past four weeks combined. To add insult to injury, I happen to be an Eagles fan. I am actually considering renouncing this. If I do not have an effigy of Brian Westbrook burning on my front lawn when I lose this week, I’ll wonder what’s happened to me.

Anyway, onto the picks and non-specific fantasy projections for the 1PM games this Sunday.

BUFFALO -7 San Fransisco
Line Pick: Buffalo’s at home and it is a considerable advantage. But seven is a pretty sizable spread for a team that has one win in the past six weeks and it’s against the Chiefs. The Niners have looked much…pluckier since Singletary lost his fucking mind at a press conference. I’m going to take the Niners and their solid defense to force a couple turnovers and keep this one close.

Fantasy Advice: Both teams have much better defenses than they do offenses. But both running backs should have respectable games and I like how Vernon Davis has been performing the past couple weeks. Do not anticipate a lot of earth shattering performances in this one. Instead, expect this to be a testament against the hard salary cap and excessive parity.

Baltimore -7 CINCINNATI
Line Pick: When the Bengals second best performance of the season is a tie at home in the ugliest game played all season, it is hard to pick them to cover against the Ravens, a team that trounced the same opponent a week later 36-7. Cincy has a habit of keeping a lot of games closer than you’d expect. But Baltimore has a lot riding on these games that are supposed to be akin to a bye week, to counter-balance any losses in an increasingly heated playoff race. Take the better team to win convincingly in the Ravens.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Mason and Willis McGahee and/or Ray Rice should have respectable performances. As far as Cinncy is concerned, if Chad Johnson isn’t playing I can’t even recommend starting Housh. If Cinncy wasn’t so accustomed to losing the city would have formed an angry mob to storm the gates of the front office by now.

If only Willis McGahee has the same perseverance of the Stanfield crew.

Indianapolis -4.5 CLEVELAND
Well, Cleveland is basically Fredo to Indy’s Sonny Corleone, and you are more than welcome to your own opinion. But I have to begrudgingly take the Colts to continue this current win streak and win by a few touchdowns. I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of a Browns-Giants type beatdown, what with Derek Anderson returning to the starting lineup and not having the burden of a possible replacement anymore. Not to mention that Indy has always struggled in cold weather environment because they’ve always played home games in a fucking dome. But from my perspective, Indy is just too hot right now to not cover 4.5 against a team that by all accounts is falling apart at the seams.

Fantasy Advice: I like Edwards to drop about two passes for significant yardage but still get in the end zone. Jerome Harrison might be a reliable option in some of your deeper leagues and Derek Anderson might be worth a gamble in a two quarterback league. On the flip side, I like Addai and Reggie Wayne to finally break out of a relative fantasy slump, as the Browns have a bottom ten defense in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Green Bay at home is a lot different that Green Bay on the road in New Orleans. I like Rodgers to rebound and Ryan Grant to run buckwild over a team that occasionally mails it in on defense (see last week against Atlanta). Not to mention that all three of Carolina’s losses have been on the road in much less hostile environments than Lambeau.

Fantasy Advice: Jennings, Rodgers & Donald Lee should all put up good to great performances. I would say Donald Driver, but he is having knee issues and is pushing 70 years old. Carolina is an odd duck when it comes to fantasy. DeAngelo Williams is, much to my dismay, having a great fantasy season despite being roughly four feet tall. Steve Smith is a must start regardless of the circumstances. And if you have alternatives I would steer clear of Delhomme, Muhammad and Jonathan Stewart,

ST. LOUIS (Pick ‘em) Miami
Line Pick: So let me get this straight, the Rams have won two games all season against a banged up Cowboys team and an over-confident Redskins team. They’ve lost their last five and I’m supposed to pick them to beat a well coached, disciplined and unrelenting Miami team because…why, exactly? They’re at home? They’re due for a win? That’s alright. I’ll take the team that’s playing for something other than a higher draft pick.

Fantasy Advice: If Steven Jackson plays, it makes Torry Holt, Marc Bulger and Donnie Avery all genuinely viable starters depending on the depth of your league. If he doesn’t, then bury these guys as deep on your bench as humanly possible and forget they’re even on your team for week 13. Miami is a wild card at receiver, but with Caramillo being out for the season he makes Ted Ginn look a lot better. Obviously Ronnie Brown is a starter, but Ricky Williams might warrant consideration against this paltry Rams defense.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 New Orleans
Line Pick: Well, if one of these NFC South teams we’re going to win a divisional road game, this would probably be it. The Saints should have a ton of momentum after that violation of the Packers. But it would be embarrassing to break our code in the same week we theorize it. But we will take New Orleans to lose a close one against a Tampa team that always keeps it close and is undefeated at home, especially since they only lost by four in New Orleans. I don’t know, if I’m gambling in Vegas, I might avoid this game like a Romeo Crennel avoids a clue.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Warrick Dunn is getting about 90% of the carries, so he is a must start regardless of who else you own. Garcia is reliable in two QB leagues. If you’re feeling confident in either Patrick Crayton, Joey Galloway or Jerramy Stevens, then knock yourself out. But it’s too much of a crap shoot for my tastes. New Orleans is even more fickle. The team always puts up points but the ball is spread around so much you’d think all their receivers were Broncos running backs. Tampa’s defense is going to show up, it’s a matter of New Orleans avoiding an identical offensive scheme to what they did last week that will keep Tampa’s defense honest.

NY GIANTS -3 Washington
Line Pick: Yeah, I’m not sure why the Giants aren’t always the Sunday night game, as they seem to be involved in one of the three best every week, and this is no exception. With that said, I’m taking them to cover handily. It’s difficult to sweep a season series against a team, especially one as impressive as Washington. But if they beat them in Washington (albeit it was the first game of the NFL season and Washington is all but literally a different team now), I fully expect them to win in the Meadowlands. That entails covering three points.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Ward if Jacobs sits his second game out should provide a productive week. We also like Kevin Boss, as we always take the a serviceable to pro bowl tight end to have a big game if he’s going up against a great defense. Along the same line of thinking, we like Cris Cooley to come through for fantasy owners. As great as the Giants are, if they have any flaw it would be prone to giving up big weeks against stud receivers. I like Santana Moss to have one of his token 20 point games. I don’t know, it is really difficult to predict any opponent of the Giants to put up big offensive statistics when they’re liable to decapitate the quarterback on ever play.

Evening game picks later tonight.