Fantasy Football

Not much going on other than the rumor that Green Bay is likely to reach a new deal with longtime under-appreciated wide out Greg Jennings. For essentially the past three seasons he’s been the best receiver on a pass happy offense and has managed to fly under the radar. Granted, he wasn’t a high draft pick, nor has he ever been top five in any receiving statistical category, but he’s been one of the more reliable receivers, right under the level of tier-1 players (which consists of Steve Smith, Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald).

Green Bay, being the smallest market by far in all of professional sports, is always reluctant to renew or extend contracts for their players, and even more so with their receivers (anyone else remember the Javon Walker saga?). But this is probably long overdue. Whether they’ll admit it or not, the organization still has some reservations about Aaron Rodgers. And they’re desperate to prove that letting Brett Favre leave after he retired for the second time was the right decision.

Personally, I don’t think that’s something they have to concern themselves with, as Favre has already crashed and burned with the Jets, and Rodgers has shown a lot of potential in his first season. People think Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are viable QB options next season? Looked at their stats compared to Rodgers and then get back to me on that. Don’t get me wrong,  you don’t want to put too much faith/responsibility on the shoulders of any one person (like the Eagles have done for virtually McNabb’s entire career), and if I’m a Green Bay fan I have to be pleased with the news that renegotiations are so far amicable. But Rodgers has the capacity to quarterback a competitive playoff team.

The fact Green Bay is going out of their way to accommodate its players should also be a positive sign for their fantasy prospects. I’ve stated so before and this only solidifies my position: Green Bay is poised for a big season, both for fantasy and substantive purposes.

Going into pretty much any NFL or fantasy football season, by far and away the most predictable outcome of any field of players at a specific position is quarterback. I don’t think there’s much argument that should they all stay healthy, Manning, Brady, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Brees, Rivers and Warner should all have good to great fantasy seasons. That’s eight guys, snag one of them and all you need is a serviceable backup.

But going into the 2009 season there are a couple of anomalies. Specifically, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Both coming off fantastic rookie campaigns, not necessarily from a fantasy perspective, but from an efficiency one.  Still, everyone has  high expectations for fantasy and to lead their teams back into the playoffs. Both of which we’re skeptical of actually happening.

This reminds us of the case with Vince Young going into his sophomore season: He led his team into the playoffs, taking a wild card at 8-8 in a competitive AFC. He went into second year regularly ranked as a top ten quarterback on fantasy boards and (at least in a couple of anecdotal examples) going as high as the second round (though all these people who drafted him that high were from Texas). A concept which is obviously absurd in hindsight, but the hype became bigger than the actual player, and that’s regularly a good sign for a quarterback that inexperienced.

For starters, and people have a tendency to do this, you don’t want to overlook the players actual contribution to the team’s success. Yes, Flacco and Ryan both had respectable rookie seasons, but both had dominant running games spearheading the offense (especially Ryan) and overwhelming defenses that forced a lot of turnovers (especially Flacco). The common thread is to judge a quarterback by the wins and losses column (See: Cutler, Jay), and this typifies the overly-simplistic nature of NFL commentary that we can’t stand.

Sure, Cutler was second in the league in passing yardage and sixth in touchdowns with a non-existent running game, a mediocre receiving corps. and the worst defense in the league…but he missed the playoffs! Obviously this logic is flawed for fantasy football, but it’s actually used as justification for why Chicago is ill-fated in finally acquiring a quarterback with pro-bowl talent.

This is the antithesis to how people perceive Ryan and Flacco: They both made the playoffs so clearly they’re the next Marino and Montana. It’s arguments such as these two that make NFL analysis insufferable to watch. That, and the self-righteous nonsense from jocktards that used to inhabit these rosters. I know everyone will tell me they know more about the game than I ever will, and they should, but when I listen to them talk it really doesn’t feel that way.

Anyhow, I have much higher hopes for Ryan than I do for Flacco, and I’d still draft all the aforementioned quarterbacks before these two (and there are about six others in the conversation). These teams aren’t going to rely on the passing game for points, they’re going to rely on moving the ball on the ground and go to air it out sporadically, just to keep teams honest. So try reign it in a bit come draft time, you’d be better off relying on their backups off of waiver wire than taking either of these guys in the first three rounds.

We often lament how difficult and pointless it is to keep a fantasy football website updated from the months of February to…July, we’ll say. But perhaps we shouldn’t complain so much, since Matthew Berry took the time to compile a top 200 fantasy list for ESPN. Of course, I probably wouldn’t complain if I was making more than a 1,000th of what Berry does, but that’s besides the point. I suppose there is a market for some of this so we might as well jump on the bandwagon, we’re going to give you five reasons Matthew Barry’s list is misguided. And none of these reasons will be, “he was too lazy to number his top 200″.

1) Knowshon Moreno is his top rated rookie.

He actually makes a big deal out of this, as it’s the headline atop the window in Firefox, but it’s just patently false and wreaks of standard NFL short-sightedness and blatant ignorance of college football (it’s so peddling to the meat head conglomerate that makes up a decent majority of the NFL fan base). Just in terms of running backs, Chris Wells and (if Joesph Addai doesn’t return from surgery in time) Donald Brown will be infinitely more valuable than Moreno, who’s going to slip into virtual anonymity playing in Denver, the leading contender right now to replicate the 2008 Lions.

Actually, you might hear about Moreno, but it won’t be in a positive light. It will be something like, “Knowshon Moreno, rookie running back for the Denver Broncos, tore every ligament in his body playing in San Diego today. Yes, once the Chargers realized that the Broncos run blocking is a shell of its former self and that they don’t have a passing game to keep defenses honest, Shawne Merriman tackled the once promising Georgia alum seven yards deep in the backfield”. I’m not even going to bother getting into the receivers that could be better fantasy options.

2) Michael Turner is his highest rated player.

He also makes a point of patting himself on the back for rating Adrian Peterson #2, which you can definitely make an argument for, but not in favor of Turner. For starters, Turner is sacrificing carries to Norwood still, they’re inevitably going to have a more difficult schedule (which means tougher defenses than last season), Turner is small, vulnerable to injury and has only carried a backfield for one season. That’s usually enough to label you enough of a risk to drop you a bit in rankings. He should have a great season, but there are better surefire bets out there (Matt Forte, Jones-Drew come to mind).

3) Thomas Jones cracked his top 15.

Say what you will about Brett Favre, his presence alone made the running game respectable in New York. Don’t believe me because it’s in vogue to discredit Brett Favre (which I’ve made a hobby of doing since 2001)? Look at Thomas Jones’ numbers from 2007 to 2008, most notably the touchdown totals (from two to fifteen). I wouldn’t expect a drop-off of such an absurd degree, if for no other reason than the offensive line is just so much improved since the 2007 campaign. But if you think Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens is demanding the same attention from defenses as Favre, then you’re probably a Jets fan. Oh, and they used their second pick in the draft on a running back (Shonn Greene out of Iowa).

4) LaDanian Tomlinson cracks the top ten.

Why does this seem like it’s done out of nostalgia? How many more disappointing seasons will Tomlinson need to have before he’s assessed properly? I hate to sound cynical, but at some point we’re going to be forced into realizing that in today’s NFL, a running back’s usefulness to his franchise has a five year shelf-life, anything more than that and you’re playing with house money. I’m giving it a 65% chance that Sproles accumulates more yards than Tomlinson.

5) Running backs solely occupy the top thirteen.

We harped on this yesterday, but more to the point: these guys are durable but injury prone. Meaning, they could miss half a season and come back almost to where he was when he left, but he still misses those eight games. It’s not an slight against the plethora of people occupying the position, but rather just the nature of it. I know it sounds crazy, but six foot, 200 pound men repeatedly colliding into 6′3, 270 pound men, can be kind of hazardous for the former.

With that in mind, and given the inherent unpredictability of the NFL, are we that certain that Stephen Jackson or Clinton Portis or Steve Slaton are going to have better fantasy seasons than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson? I wouldn’t complain because sure, you can make that argument. But it doesn’t seem like the counter-argument is ever taken into consideration.

Anyhow, I could go on dissecting this thing. Nitpicking every single perceived liberty Matthew Berry took with his rankings, but that would be too monotonous for an already monotony-laden post. We’ll stop here and leave you to make your own interpretations.

A couple headlines today, we should probably lead off that Vince Young is backing off his demand to be started or traded. Or rather, his agent is backing off for him, because his agent knows the market is a tad cold for an overpriced, unproven salary drain under a hard cap, something Vince Young might not have been aware of at the time he pining for a deal too…anywhere? I’m not really sure where he thought he’d be valued.

Set aside the Vince Young saga that doesn’t look like it will end well for anybody, there isn’t much going on. So let me link to two guys debating the state of the Cowboys and Tony Romo post-Terrell Owens. Without reading the exchange because it’s about 1,500 words too many, I’m willing to guess that one side argues what he brings to the field outweighs any distractions he brings to the locker room, and the other side counters with the inverse of that (that his locker room antics are tolerable so long as he produces). I’m going to probably side with the former here, because any one receiver that makes a significant impact on a team’s offense is borderline priceless, but Owens doesn’t fit that mold anymore. He is thirty-six years old, seems prone to dropping passes and seems more interested in making headlines on E! than making the starting roster on your fantasy squad.

Besides, there is plenty of talent to supplement whatever Owens brought to the field. Between Williams, Witten and the two running backs in Choice and Barber, offensive firepower hasn’t been what this team is lacking. If there was anything that Tony Romo needed, it was to be able to operate out of the pocket without his teammate privately and publicly second guessing every decision. The Cowboys, along with all of the fantasy options they currently employ, will be improved by his departure.

All that said, I’d love to see Vince Young throwing passes to Terrell Owens in the apocalyptic cold weather that is Buffalo, NY in November and December.

Back with something equally illuminating tomorrow.

This is the one division in football without a real identifiable characteristic. If it’s anything, they are four of the more loyal teams to their coaches, but that seems pretty thin since one of them is the Houston Texans. They don’t even have a regional identity as one is in Indianapolis, one is in Nashville, one is in Houston and the other is in Jacksonville. Of the seven NFL teams that are considered part of the Mason-Dixon line, the NFC South consolidated four of them and the AFC East got the last one. There isn’t less than a five hour drive separating any of these teams and three of them are on the east coast.

That said, only one of them had a top ten pick (Jacksonville at #8) so if nothing else it’s a successful division, but all of these teams are going into the 2009 season with numerative question marks surrounding them: How will Indy look without Dungy and Harrison? Will Jacksonville rebound from the most disappointing season in the league last year? Can Tennessee repeat what they did last season with a non-existent passing game? And can Houston finally make the leap and contend for the playoffs? In other words, all of them had a lot on the line in this draft, let’s see how they did.

Houston Texans

Who they drafted: A team with a young, inexperienced defense drafted primarily more young, inexperienced defenders. Of their eight picks, only three of them were offensive players, the earliest coming in the third round and they consisted of a guard and two tight ends. It appears we aren’t the only ones who think Owen Daniels only performs just enough to keep his job and be overrated. In other words, the offense will look exactly the same.

Prognostication: Well: Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Kevin Walter, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will all be taken in your fantasy draft. The cloud overhead of this team is: Can Schaub finally turn into the quarterback everyone seemed to think he would be while backing up Vick in Atlanta? If he is capable of it, which Houston obviously seems to think he is, can the line protect him? Judging by Slaton’s productivity last year, it would lead you to believe that all of this is possible, it’s just a matter of it actually happening, which has yet to take place. Given, they’re in a tough division (the Colts have had Peyton Manning for as long as they’ve existed), but the clock is ticking on this team. Hopefully a defense with both DeMeco Ryan, Mario Williams, Nick Ferguson, Amobi Okoye and now Brian Cushing can actually produce something tangible.  Personally, I think we’re looking at a 10-6 season and a potential wild card.

Indianapolis Colts

Who they drafted: Donald Brown in the first, some receiver in the fourth and Curtis Painter in the sixth. It’s amazing they made only a half-assed effort to replace Marvin Harrison, then again it’s amazing that the Colts ever draft an offensive player before the third, so we can’t really speculate.

Prognostication: Then again, what kind of team takes a first round running back when they already have Joseph Addai? Is this one of those “I want my guys” moves from the new coach, because if I’m not mistaken, he was the assistant coach under Dungy, was he not? So what fucking gives? I know most teams operate with a run-by-committee approach, but you can’t hold off a couple rounds, take Javon Ringer and significantly upgrade your front seven? Anyways, with Gonzalez replacing Harrison, Manning being one year older and the same staggeringly inconsistent defense, I see another 11-5 season and an early dismissal from the playoffs. They’ll still get their points, but with the exception of Anthony Gonzalez I would knock everyone down at least one round with this draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Who they drafted: On the other side of the coin is the Jags, who surprisingly even bothered drafting defense this year, but never the less did so sparingly. Outside of their two third round picks, the other seven were offensive players. Including offensive lineman in the first and second round. Three receivers, a tight end and a running back from Liberty rounded out the draft for Jacksonville.

Prognostication: Maurice Jones-Drew’s stock just fucking sky-rocketed. They might be banking on Chauncey Washington to step in for third-down duty, but he has to come down from his high if he wants to improve his carries total. Look at his numbers last year, now take away Fred Taylor and add two top-tier offensive lineman and what do you get? I think you have a top five pick. As for the team itself, this defense is always a viable candidate, but the passing game is abysmal. I like the addition of Holt, but Holt is in Terrell Owens territory at this point and is running on fumes. Not to mention we can’t be sure that Gerrard will get him the ball when he’s open. Right now he’s listed as second string. So yeah, unless you can get your hands on Jones-Drew, I’d give strong consideration for any other player of comparable value on any other team.

Tennessee Titans

Who they drafted: Wisely, they went with a wide receiver in the first round. Unwisely, they went with some guy named Kenny Britt out of Rutgers. Now, they get a little leeway because they’re the Titans, and 75% of the time they are anywhere from respectable to competitive. But we have our suspicions about Kenny Britt being the best available option. Also notable offensive picks: Jared Cook (TE out of South Carolina), Javon Ringer in the fifth and a couple scrubs in the sixth and seventh rounds. On the defensive end, Sen’Derrick Marks out of Auburn has some enormous shoes to fill replacing Albert Haynesworth. All told: eleven draft picks, six on offense and five on defense.

Prognostication: Well, the passing game will be ever so marginally improved, but might be less effective with some of the hits on defense. I don’t see Kerry Collins holding up this season and Vince Young playing some sort of role on the offense that exceeds clipboard holding. How will the offense react? Well, Chris Johnson and LenDale White should still be viable fantasy players, but if this team gets off to a slow start, expect both of their efficient carries to drop considerably (the only 100 yard games White had last year were against the Chiefs and Lions, the 32nd and 30th ranked defenses in the league, respectively). This team, above all other playoff teams, I expect to slip quite a few notches and am pretty confident they’re missing the playoffs.

God that felt long. Actually, if you’re looking for a common theme amongst the teams in this division, it’s that they all are banking on quality in quantity in this draft. All of them had nine or more picks, with Tennessee maxing out at eleven.

That’s it for the week, back on Monday with something unrelated to the draft.

Ahh, the good ol’ reliable NFC west. The bastion of all that is wrong with NFL parity and proprietors of never-ending suckitude; these four teams have comprised what has unmistakenly been the worst division in the NFL for the past decade (despite two Super Bowl losses, both of which were coincidentally to the Steelers). As such, this division owned three of the top ten picks, two of the top four and this years gritty (i.e. quasi-lucky) Super Bowl reject.

That said, everyone seems to be in agreement that this division is poised for a rebound in 2009. If Arizona can carry the momentum from the playoffs into the 2009 season, if the Seahawks can stay healthy and Hasselbeck isn’t washed up like everyone assumes he is, and if Singletary can keep the Niners focused and finally get them to capitalize on their second half of the season success, they could potentially put two teams in the playoffs. That said, they’re a lot of “if’s” in this paragraph. As a result, the draft was infinitely more important to them than any other division in the league.

Arizona Cardinals

Who they drafted: Beanie wells with the second to last pick in the first round, defenders from then until the fifth and some late round cut-ees. Pretty much exactly what they should have done.

Prognostication: From a fantasy perspective, as multi-faceted as Wells is (can run laterally, vertically, for speed or power, for short and long yardage), I’d worry about how often he will be getting goal line carries. Wisenhunt is going to feel a tinge of loyalty to make sure Hightower gets his carries, and most of those I would expect to be in short-yardage situations. Still, if Wells stays healthy he should be a tremendous asset to any fantasy team. With that passsing game and assuming they keep all those receivers, this team could look almost infallible. One does pause for a second though, because everyone’s waiting for the other shoe to drop with Kurt Warner. Again.

San Fransisco 49ers

Who they drafted: San Fran, coming off another 8-8 year, seem to feel that between Mike Singletary insane genius, his history as a player and players drafted in recent years, that they are properly equipped on defense. At least that would explain taking Michael Crabtree 10th overall and ‘bama running back Glen Coffee in the third (I have no idea what happened to their second pick). Every other pick is superfluous.

Prognostication: Coming off yet another 8-8 season, I like the direction this team seems to be heading in. Amongst all the dark horses going into every NFL season, New Orleans is my favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and San Fran is my favorite to potentially upset in the playoffs. With the drafting of Crabtree, even with my effected opinion of him, he immediately becomes their best receiver. Alongside Vernon Davis, the ghost of Isaac Bruce, Arnez Battle and Brandon Jones; it goes from looking like one of the five worst receiving corps in the league to among one of the up and coming. Of course, they still have Shaun Hill throwing to them, which is probably worth taking into consideration. Also, if you like Frank Gore as a fantasy player or otherwise, expect Coffee to spell him on a pretty regular basis and cut into his carries.

Seattle Seahawks

Who they drafted: Aaron Curry with the fourth overall pick, addressed the aging offensive line in the second and added to their much needed receiving corps in the third. Their next pick was Mike Teel, the beleaguered Rutgers quarterback in the sixth (providing some tangible competition for Seneca “Heisman candidate for the first six weeks of his senior season at Iowa St” Wallace) and three seventh round picks.

Prognostication: With all due respect to all of the aforementioned players, the real acquisition for the ‘hawks is Cincinnati Bengal deflector and perennially most underrated player in the league in TJ Houshmenzadeh. For all the trials and tribulations of the Bengals rather turbulent Marvin Lewis era (Note: the turbulence has in no way been Lewis’ fault), Housh has been the one constant glimmer of hope. Through the good years with Palmer to the defunct 2008 season with Fitzpatrick at QB, Housh has always produced statistically and stayed out of trouble (which puts him in a distinct minority on the Bengals roster). Between him, Hasselbeck returning (too full form or otherwise) and the great first four draft picks (despite my superficial reservations about Curry), I could see the Seahawks bringing Seattle sports out of the abyss they seem to be submerged in. Adjust your fantasy projections accordingly.

St. Louis Rams

Who they drafted: Offensive tackle Jason Smith, under-sized linebacker out of Ohio State James Laurinaitis (I hear his dad was a professional wrestler of the WWE variety), then several unrecognizable defenders until closing out the draft with nonsensical offensive players in the 5th-7th rounds.

Prognostication: If you couldn’t tell from what I’ve written already, I’m really not a fan of what the Rams did in this draft or their outlook for the 2009 season. I don’t understand the coaching hire, I don’t know why they let Orlando Pace go just to replace him with Jason Smith (aren’t you just starting at square 1? It feels like the one team that wasn’t going to see a tangible improvement from one year to the next with Smith) and I don’t know why they failed to address their dire receiver situation (as good as Donnie Avery looked in his rookie season, he’s not a suitable first option). For a franchise that dominated the division from about 1999-2004, they’ve had a pretty hard fall from grace. If nothing else, the Rams can serve as a template for the Seahawks as what not to do.

Back tomorrow to close out our draft review with the AFC South.

We underwent a few technical changes this afternoon and were unable to post as early as we have been this week. So, sorry about that. On the plus side, our posts will be somewhat coherently formatted. Yay for semi-cogent internet screeds!

Today we look at the AFC East, the conference that Keyshawn Johnson couldn’t stop mentioning was “quarterback loaded except for the Jets” on draft day as justification for trading up for Mark Sanchez. Obviously no one told him that two of those “other teams” were the Dolphins and Bills. Either way, for having the best team of the past decade in their arsenal, this is a surprisingly mediocre division. The Bills take comfort knowing that they’ll never do worse than 8-8, but never do better than 8-8. The Jets fluctuate like no other team in the NFL, and every time they do make the playoffs it feels like an unpleasant surprise while every time they miss it feels like what’s supposed to happen. And the Dolphins will continue to be in rebounding mode as a franchise, and despite making the playoffs in 2008, still lack the offensive and defensive fire power to be considered among the elite teams in the league.

Basically, it’s a pivotal draft for a division in which I hate all four teams. I don’t like watching them. I don’t like owning their fantasy players. I don’t like people even reminding me of their mere existence. So, this should be fun.

Buffalo Bills

Who they drafted: The Bills were quite busy on draft day, but by all indications they are content with their skill players (as they probably should be), and went with offensive line when they weren’t drafting defense, as evidenced by first and second round picks that were committed to the line. Since they traded away their best lineman to the Eagles, this made sense. The only other offensive player they drafted was a fourth round tight end who, if lucky enough to make the team and get on the field will undoubtedly be blocking more than receiving.

Prognostication: The story here is obviously Terrell Owens and just how much he plans on derailing this team. So far, Owens has complained about playing with McNabb in his prime, Jeff Garcia in his prime and Tony Romo just entering his prime, what exactly is he going to have to say about Trent Edwards? We will say this, as a result of TO coming in and the two new lineman, we should see increased productivity from all of the returning skill players, even if Owens’ presence doesn’t get them in the playoffs. I’d bump Lynch and Fred Jackson up a few notches on your draft board.

Miami Dolphins

Who they drafted: Miami was relatively busy on draft day, just like any team that Bill Parcells has a hand in assimilating. For the sake of brevity: Pat White in the second round Patrick Turner in the third, Brian Hartline in the fourth, some tight end in the fifth and a tackle in the sixth.

Prognostication: While I think the Pat White pick works for them, doesn’t the statute of limitations on the wildcat have to be about up. I see Jerrod Mayo absolutely obliterating Patrick Cobbs at some point and putting an end to this whole scheme. But for the time being the pick understandable, if not predictable. They have needed an upgrade at receiver since Chris Chambers left, and before Chambers it had been about fifteen years since they had a notable receiver, so Pat Turner is the right pick. And I have no idea what they were thinking with Hartline. Still, while they loaded up on offensive players, I doubt any of them have any significant impact on this fantasy season. Outside of Ronnie Brown and maybe Ricky Williams, most of the current players’ fantasy value was diminished, and the new crop of players will be obsolete.

New England Patriots

Who they drafted: If the Dolphins were busy, then the Patriots were working in an Indonesian sweat shop. Twelve draft picks in all, five on offense and seven on defense, and with maybe the exception of UNC wide out Brandon Tate, none of any real consequence. As a result, we’re not going to take the time run through all of them.

Prognostication: Look, if you think Tom Brady will return fully healthy, then set your draft board as such. If not, then it’s anyone’s fucking guess what’s running through your head. I, for whatever crazy reason, expect Brady and the Pats to look almost as effective in 2009 as they did in 2007. If all goes according to plan, with all of the picks they used on defense and all the weapons they kept on offense this team should light up the fantasy football season (though I think the aging offensive line is a concern).  But it goes without saying, that if Brady’s taken out at the knees again and with no Cassel to back him up, all of those players are fucked statistically.

New York Jets

Who they drafted: Mark Sanchez, Shonn Green and a sixth round offensive guard out of Nebraska. Three picks, that’s it.

Prognostication: Well, just how much faith do you have in a rookie quarterback with a top (we’ll say…) eight offensive line, an above average running corps and a respectable recieving corps that runs five deep if you include Dustin Keller? Because while we think if there was an ideal yet realistic place for Sanchez to land, it was in New Jersey with the Jets. But at the same time, we think he’s going to be dreadful in his rookie season. People seem to forget that Thomas Jones and Leon Washington’s number skyrocketed from 2007 to 2008, it wasn’t just a coincidence that Brett Favre played in that second season. We’ll see if Sanchez can keep defenses honest enough to open up the running game, but that’s assuming he starts. If Kellen Clemens is their starter, you’re going to really wish you had went with the fourth receiver on the Cardinals instead of Chansi Stuckey.

Back tomorrow with the exact opposite of the AFC East in logistics and commercial appeal: the NFC West.

This is one of the more intriguing divisions heading into the 2009 season: An 0-16 team with the number one overall pick, a new coach and slightly modified uniforms, the best 6-10 team ever to play in the NFL in the 2008 Green Bay Packers, probably the most talented team in the NFL if quarterback doesn’t factor into the equation and the main beneficiary of the biggest trade in the off-season. Needless to say, if I’m a fan of a NFC North team, I’m on pins and needles waiting for the season to start (countdown: only four months and a half months to go). Two of these teams are on borrowed time (or at least it’s starting to feel that way) and two of them are just getting started, I’ll let you figure out which is which.

Chicago Bears

Who they drafted: Giving away all first day picks for Jay Cutler, the Bears drafted three receivers I’ve never heard of in a draft loaded with day two prospects at the position, an offensive lineman in the seventh round that won’t make the roster and five defensive players.

Prognostication: As underwhelmed as I am by their incoming crop of rookies, their off-season was all about getting Jay Cutler. As a result the offensive should look noticeably improved. Greg Olson will catch more passes, Matt Forte will gain more yards and Devin Hester now has a quarterback whose passes he can’t out run. But still the Bears look mightily desperate taking all these shots at unnamed receivers. They’re basically throwing a jump ball in the hopes that someone will rise to the occasion. Methinks they regret letting Berrian and Muhammad leave.

Detroit Lions

Who they drafted: Good golly do I like what they did with their draft. In the first round they managed to get the two best prospects at two different positions in Matt Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew, they took one of our dark horses in the third round with Derrick Williams and were practical by waiting until the sixth round to take a running back in Aaron Brown out of TCU, and in the seventh they took another tight end and a Nebraskan offensive lineman.

Prognostication: I still say I would have taken Jason Smith with that first overall pick, but judging by what they did with the rest of their draft they obviously see something in their current line that they like. Stafford will be on his back more often than not, but when he isn’t they know they have a guy capable of getting Pettigrew, Derrick Williams and Calvin and Bryant Johnson the ball, not to mention a defense that has only one available direction to go in, Detroit (right along with Philadelphia) might be the most improved NFL team for fantasy considerations.

Green Bay Packers

Who they drafted: An offensive lineman in the fourth and fifth rounds, a fullback in the fourth and five defensive players that opened and closed their drafts.

Prognostication: This team was absolutely loaded last year for fantasy and I think that will be the case this year. Aaron Rodgers should be just as effective this season minus the excessive interceptions, Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson will probably have a 60/40 split on carries, and while they’re a little thin at receiving options (Driver has to be close to entering his forties), Greg Jennings and Donald Lee are both viable fantasy options. So while I would have taken a receiver, I can understand the urgency on defense, where they seem to have a plethora of names but never clicked (Note: Their defense was pretty solid for fantasy purposes, as they led the league in defensive touchdowns, so you know they have potential). Plus, Boldin, Burress and Edwards are still very much on the trading block.

Minnesota Vikings

Who they drafted: Percy Harvin, which was easily the most discussed draft pick after Stafford, an offensive lineman out of Oklahoma and three defensive players with the remaining picks they managed to salvage from the Jason Allen trade last season.

Prognostication: With all the rumors floating about that Brett Favre is contemplating signing with Minnesota, it’s tough to say. I’m not big on the Favre bandwagon (haven’t been for the past nine years), but with the potential they now have at receiver with Shiancoe, Harvin and Berrian, they need someone who can actually get them the ball, and I think Favre is still capable of doing just that. At least more so than Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson. On the other end of the equation, you’re looking at considerably more turnovers if you bring in Favre, is the increased explosiveness worth all the errant passes you are destined to see? If I’m a Vikings fan/front office overlord, I’m going to say no; but it would really improve everyone’s fantasy prospects. Can you imagine the numbers Peterson puts up if they acquire Favre, a quarterback that defensives have to take seriously. It did wonders for Thomas Jones’ numbers, what it could do for AP is beyond my comprehension.

Back tomorrow with the AFC East.

It’s a good thing we’re stretching this out over the course because absolutely nothing happened in the world of football over the weekend. It was a minimal amount of NBA playoffs, sports that people pretend to care about in really brief durations (horse racing, boxing) and hockey. To give you an idea of how dominant the NFL is, if their was an exhibition game taking place in Singapore between the Texans and Seahawks, it would have scored a higher Nielsen than every other sporting event this weekend combined.

Today we look at the NFC South, the division with the best overall record in the 2008 season and presumably the one that requires the least amount of help for 2009. But along with the regularity teams have to turn their situation around for the better, they’re just as likely to collapse for no explainable reason. This seems inevitable for at least two teams in the NFC South. Which two? I have no idea. But if I’m putting money on it I’m going with Carolina & Tampa Bay. If this collapse is indeed pending, success in the draft is all the more imperative.

Atlanta Falcons

Who they drafted: Uhh, they had eight total picks, seven which were for defense and even the one lone offensive player was a fifth round lineman.

Prognostication: From a fantasy perspective the major acquisition here was Tony Gonazalez, whom they got for a second round draft pick in 2010. He’s going to be able to open up the passing lanes for Michael Jenkins and Roddy White, run block for Turner and Norwood and generally just serve as another body defenses can’t leave unguarded. If all those defensive draft picks improve the other side of the ball and Matt Ryan’s rookie year wasn’t a fluke (unlike Joe Flacco, we don’t think it was), the Falcons and New Orleans should be in a dog fight for divisional supremacy, which means a lot of accumulated fantasy points.

Carolina Panthers

Who they drafted: Understandably they went just about all defense. Muhsin Muhammad, Steve Smith, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are all perfectly suitable at the skill positions. It wasn’t a good draft to improve at quarterback and they would have been insane to trade up for it. With Julius Peppers constantly rumored to be leaving Charlotte, it was smart to preemptively prepare for that, because a player like that can make or break a defense if you don’t have suitable replacements.

Prognostication: Even though I like them going after defensive players, the defense was good enough last year. The real question is how is Jake Delhomme going to rebound from that dreadful six interception game last season and will his teammates support him, because at least for now they have no other options. I think renewing his contract to a undeserved and unforeseen degree (especially for a thirty-four year old) that the team has no intention of honoring will help, but I still have my doubts. As far as fantasy football goes, this team will be just as productive as last season, but I’m skeptical they’re returning to the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints

Who they drafted: Malcolm Jenkins. The three rounds later they drafted a linebacker and another DB both of who are out of Wake Forest. If you’re wondering what happened to their second and third round picks you are in the wrong place to find out.

Prognostication: The Saints seem to perennially have a weak secondary. They address the issue every year and every year it seems to get worse. In other words, they’re the new New York Giants in that way. Remember that season opener between the Colts and Saints the season after Indy won the Super Bowl? Jason David turned down the contract offer from the Colts, went to New Orleans and Peyton Manning burnt him on three touchdown passes? That has epitomized the Saints secondary for the past four seasons. Jason David is listed as second string now, But I think acquiring Malcolm Jenkins might be the wrench that gets them moving in the other direction. Look for the offense to be just as explosive next season but even more effective because of an improved defense that was completely revamped in 2008.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who they drafted: The quarterback out of Kansas State in Josh Freeman, defensive players in the third, fourth and seventh rounds and an offensive tackle from Illinois in the fifth. I believe they gave up the second round pick to either move up to ensure they got the rights to Freeman or in the Kellen Winslow deal.

Prognostication: In short, This team is a fucking mess. I like trading for Winslow especially for how relatively little they had to sacrifice to get one of the best athletes in the league, but they released half their defense from last season, fired their coach and let their much abused Jeff Garcia take off for Oakland to scare the living shit out of JaMarcus Russell. And while I like Freeman for where they drafted him, I really don’t think they needed to trade up to secure the pick (it was two spots) and he is, admittedly, a work in progress that will almost certainly be their starter this season. And if he isn’t, the options are Luke McCown and Brian Griese. If NFL teams were models, the only team Tampa would look good standing next to is Denver. So if you want to draft Michael Clayton or Derrick Ward or Antonio Bryant or Kellen Winslow, just be damn certain their isn’t an option on equal footing in talent but with a more stable situation.

We return tomorrow with our close on the rust belt region: The NFC North.

Welcome back, today we dissect the abysmal yet still better of the two west divisions in the NFL. Then again, the NFC west at least represented the conference in the Super Bowl, so there you go. But the AFC West has some teams on the up and up, particularly San Diego, who if they act like adults and not petulant children who feel they’ve been wronged, might actually live up to expectations; and we’re of the mind that Kansas City is a dark horse playoff contender. The other half of the division, well, we’re not trying to ruin your day so we’ll just say that I’d find an Arena League team too root for if you have any hopes of one of these two teams making a run.

Denver Broncos

Who they drafted: Knowshon Moreno is obviously the headliner. After the tenth overall pick, the team wisely went defense with four of their next five picks (they had a bevy of them from the Cutler trade), as they had the second worst defense in the league after an 0-16 Detroit team, but since their offense was one of the best in the league I am convinced the Lions actually had the superior defensive unit.

Prognostication: While I think Knowshon Moreno is a talent worthy of recognition, but as much as I like Kyle Orton, he’s not exactly a suitable replacement for Jay Cutler. Not to mention that their O-line couldn’t stop a a mediocre offensive line and no legitimate help in the backfield. So, take that for what it’s worth. I’m also skeptical of this new coach. If you didn’t notice, no one really considered Jay Cutler a “cancer” until Shannahan was out and McDaniels was in, that just wreaks of a control freak and not in a good way. I don’t know, when I look at this roster I see the closest thing to the 2008 Lions. Which means the only player you really want to draft off this team is Brandon Marshall.

Kansas City Chiefs

Who they drafted: Much like Denver, Kansas City’s defense was putrid. Actually, it was ranked 30th overall instead of 31st and there cause for concern was inexperience and not decimation via injury, so they have that going for them. Anyhow, they also focused primarily on defense and traded their second round pick for Matt Cassel. They didn’t actually draft an offensive player until the sixth round, which is the right thing for them to do. And if you’re so cynical as to actually question them, then you’re questioning the architect of the New England Patriots teams of the past decade in Scott Pioli.

Prognostication: Yeah, I don’t think Javarris Williams or Quentin Lawrence are really going to turn this team upside down, so they key here is Matt Cassel, who they gave up relatively little for. With Tony Gonzalez gone, they’re left with Dwayne Bowe, Bobby Engram and last year’s enigma for, like, weeks 11-15 in Mark Bradley. If I’m being honest I don’t expect Cassel to have a season like the second half he had in New England (you’re kidding yourself if you think he will), but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an upgrade from Tyler Thigpen, yet another 2008 Chiefs enigma. In short, I like this team as a dark horse in the same fashion of 2008 Miami, but the Dolphins didn’t have any real fantasy players either.

Oakland Raiders

Who they drafted: “It’s my hot body, I’ll do what I want. It’s my hot body, I’ll do what I want.” This is what I kept hearing when Tom Cable so virtuously and unconvincingly went to defend their draft day. Look man, I understand wanting to “get the guys” you want and all that, but there is this little thing called Market Value that you, Al Davis and whatever mad scientist you have making the calls in the front office decided to look over. I don’t know for a fact, but you probably could have drafted Bay in the second round, if not the third. As for the rest of their draft…ugh.

Prognostication: There really isn’t much to say because it doesn’t look like they’re going to corrode as a result of this draft. If it goes either way it will be the latter, just by virtue of not improving, like, you know, most teams do in the NFL draft. Maybe Bey will pan out and JaMarcus Russell will continue to improve like he was at the end of last season, but it seems like wishful thinking to assume any of this is going to happen.

San Diego Chargers

Who they drafted: Third and fourth round offensive lineman, a sixth round running back and Demetrius Byrd, one of our dark horses from our draft preview. Yeah, not much happening on the San Diego front in the way of newly acquired players effecting your fantasy season.

Prognostication: San Diego is still going to be a dynamic fantasy team. Between Chambers, Jackson, Rivers, Gates and whether it be Sproles, Tomlinson or both of them. I am surprised they didn’t think to re-up at running back with either Donald Brown or Beanie Wells. They probably wanted to avoid pissing off Tomlinson but his career is done, and I can’t imagine what they’re going to do with yet another linebacker. I mean, when you run the 3-4 I guess you can always use added depth but if San Diego has any one glaring weakness that needs addressing, considering Sproles is under-sized and Tomlinson is over the hill, then it’s probably at running back. But as it stands, I imagine one of the offensive lineman they drafted will improve their blocking, making everyone just slightly more impressive.

Alright, we’re off until next Monday, when we’ll tackle the NFC South.

In honor of the Bengals being named this season’s Hard Knocks team, we’re reviewing the AFC North’s draft this week for fantasy football. It’s the AFC North, so that means two of these teams will have players you want to draft and the other two are in Ohio. So be it, it lessens our workload. Onto the inconsequential synopsis of what all went down for your beloved rust belt teams, you can find our preview of the NFC east here.

Baltimore Ravens
Who they drafted: I absolutely loved who they took with there first pick in Michael Oher, the two time All-American offensive tackle from Ole Miss. As noted during the draft, he has an absurd survivalists background and his response when getting drafted, something along the lines of “I didn’t care when I went so long as I went” was refreshing in the ridiculously hyper-competitive atmosphere that accompanies the draft. If they had a running back who could stay healthy or a quarterback who wasn’t the luckiest first round pick on the face of the earth I would actually consider drafting one of their backfield players. But yeah, it’s still their defense. Otherwise, it was a tight end from East Carolina, a running back from Virginia and defense the rest of the way home, baby.

Prognostication: There is absolutely no way the Ravens win eleven games again next year, but if they do the offense will be the reason why. Willis McGahee should be lethal, but you have to worry about Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain eating up carries. Which they will on a regular basis. The receiving corps. is solid and the offensive line will be too, it’s just a matter of how much faith you have in Joe Flacco, and we don’t really have any. It’s one thing to go from being a serviceable quarterback who only throws the ball fifteen times a game and doesn’t turn the ball over, too being an actual play-maker. This draft didn’t really do him any favors at the skill positions. We will say this: expect all their receivers to have improved seasons (Mason and Clayton especially).

Cincinnati Bengals

Who they drafted: A behemoth of a wobbly offensive lineman in Andre Smith, a stud linebacker who fell further than he ever had any business falling in Ray Malaluga, some other defensive players that will make an immediate impact and a couple offensive scrubs that I’ve never heard of in the later rounds.

Prognostication: All told? Not half bad for the Bengals, who should be significantly better as a team next year with Carson Palmer coming back (though I have my reservations about how effective he’ll actually be, he’s a damn sight better than Fitzgerald). But they still have Cedric Benson/Chris Perry as their running backs and they lost their best play-maker at wideout when Houshmenzadeh bolted for the pacific Northwest to play for Seattle (who I like as a psuedo-dark horse). They did replace him with Laverneus Coles though that strikes me more as Coles went there because no one else would have him. But you make of it what you will. Not to mention there is the small detail that just about any Bengals roster spot is tenuous, as the front office cut so many backroom deals to get active players out of the clink from Saturday night’s festivities. Personally, I’m probably steering clear of all Bengals unless I can get some after I’ve drafted all my starters sans kicker. It’s a bold move, I know.

Cleveland Browns
Who they drafted: The Browns traded down about four times to gain extra draft picks in the first round, by the end of the first they had ten picks for the next six rounds and somehow ended up with…eight total draft picks? I didn’t watch a millisecond of the second round on so I’m not sure how this all worked out, but with the picks they had, they managed to acquire Alex Mack, Brian Robiskie, Mohommad Massaqui and James Davis on the offensive side.

Prognostication: Well, I like how they continued to trade down…but I don’t really know what they got out of it other than a heavier wallet. I mean, reportedly Mangini is a big fan of the two defenders they got from New York for the 5th overall pick, but the value doesn’t seem that high for a quarterback that was so sought after. That said, I always like beefing up at the offensive line and since it looks like LeCharles Bentley isn’t going to pan out, they replaced him with a first rounder they obviously have a high opinion of. And while I’m not a huge Robiskie fan, they need receivers as much as anyone with their only remaining starter hating the team/city, Winslow being dealt to Tampa and Stallworth being in the clink. Massaqui is also a decent value pick in the third and I can’t believe James Davis was still available in the seventh. In all, this team is laden with players people might end up taking from free agency, because they seem deep but average at all skill positions.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Who they drafted: An offensive lineman from Wisconsin, a receiver from Ole Miss, a running back from UNLV and some scrubs in the sixth and seventh round. I’d question the first round pick of Evander Hood if it was anyone other than Pittsburgh drafting him but they kind of have a successful track record with these things, so we’ll let it slide.

Prognostication: Well, what have we come to expect from the Steelers during a football season? They’re efficient, well-managed, selfless (or as much as any professional athlete can be) and mild-mannered. The aggregate of these qualities results in several 4th-10th round picks (Ward, Miller, Washington, Holmes, Roethlisberger) and Willie Parker, who depending on his inconsistent health status might be worthy of first round pick when draft time rolls around. I don’t want to commit too staunchly to that position because there’s enough time for him to end up needing his feet amputated, but I like his potential with the slightly improved offensive line (which was probably the worst ever to win a Super Bowl). Mike Wallace will only clock minutes in garbage time and that’s assuming he makes the roster. He’s behind a lot of capable hands in the four listed above and Limas Sweed, Dallas Baker and Dennis Dixon who they might try to run at the position. Basically, nothing changed from this draft.

Back tomorrow with our assessment of….the AFC West.

So it appears that the new trend in post-draft analysis is to lament the concept of dolling out team grades immediately after the draft ends, and this is generally followed immediately with draft grades because virtually no one wants to deviate from the norm. The sad fact of the matter is, that people enjoy draft grades. It tends to validate what they think of their team’s performance or serve as a devil’s advocate. There’s nothing wrong with it. I don’t know why the concept needs to be lampooned by everyone with a public opinion when rightly or wrongly, it’s obviously what people enjoy reading. It’s opinion on the NFL, not a dissection of apartheid. It doesn’t exactly have to be sophisticated.

Never the less, we’re going to look at each team’s draft and see how their incoming crop of players who may or may not make the roster will impact the team’s offensive character. We’re going to do this by division so as to get as many posts out of this as possible. Today we’re starting with the NFC East, because it’s loaded with teams in major markets thus making it the most important of all the divisions. See, that’s my Colin Cowherd impression.

Dallas Cowboys

Who they drafted: Despite not having a pick on the first day (which only consisted of two rounds this year) due to desperately needing to acquire Roy Williams, the Cowboys had a total of twelve picks in this weekends draft, practically none of which were on offense. Well, they drafted an offensive lineman in the second round from Ball State (Muncie represent!), a quarterback who won’t even be allowed to hold the clipboard and a seventh round receiver from Oklahoma named Manuel Johnson.

Prognostication: With the Cowboys, basically you’re hoping that they weeded out some of the excessive baggage and will be able to focus primarily on what’s being produced on the field as opposed to what’s happening off of it. Maybe the Ball State lineman can help protect Romo and open up some more holes for Tashard Choice and Marion Barber, but that’s not enough incentive to draft any of these players. If you’re leaning towards the Cowboys rebounding from a disappointing 2008 campaign, draft them. If not, then don’t. It’s really quite simple. I actually think they will, but don’t let what happened in this draft influence your opinion either way, because it was pretty inconsequential from a fantasy perspective.

New York Giants

Who they drafted: For all the talk of how deep they are at running back, how confident they are in their quarterback and for having a top five offensive line, the Giants used a total of four picks addressing those three aspects of their team with William Betty (OT from UConn), Andre Brown (RB from NC State), Rhett Bomar (QB from Sam Houston) & Travis Beckum (TE from Wisconsin). Three of which were in the fourth round or before. The highlight of their draft, however, was there attempts to fill their recent void at receiver with Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden, shattering the record of coolest names for a drafted receiving duo in the history of receiving duos.

Prognostication: As stated before, I’m a big Hakeem Nicks fan. But when you take receiver-type into the equation, he isn’t exactly what they needed. A good chunk of their offense consisted of Eli holding to ball too long, being rushed in the backfield, flinging up a hail Mary in Burress’ general direction and hoping that he could come down with the catch or disrupt any potential interception; and I’d say about 90% of the time Burress was the target of a forty yard heave, one of these two things was the end result. Nicks, for as much as we like his potential, at 6′0 he is too short to afford them this style of offense. On the other hand, with Ramses, who stands at an intimidating 6′6, could end up being at least a supplement for Burress, if not a permanent solution.

Philadelphia Eagles

Who they drafted: Jeremy Maclin (WR), LeSean McCoy (RB), Cornelius Ingram (TE, Florida), Fenuki Tupou (OT, Oregon), Brandon Gibson (WR, Washington State) and Paul Faniaka (OG, Arizona State). In other words: as far as fantasy football is concerned, they had what I’d consider the most impacting draft.

Prognostication: Well, between the rookies they drafted and the draft picks they traded away for the offensive lineman Jason Peters from Buffalo, I think it’s safe to say there will be a lot of changes here. Philly was in a tenuous position at receiver given what was available, they also needed a possession receiver and settled for another speed demon in Jeremy Maclin, whose basically the same type of receiver as Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson. While I would have rather seen them trade for Boldin, this is going to offer its own style. As I said in our running diary on Saturday, when Donovan McNabb snaps the ball, it’s going to look like someone swatted a beehive with a crowbar.

I don’t know how much the rookie offensive lineman are going to play, but with the return of Shane Andrews and the acquisition of Jason Peters, the running game is going to look refined, and if Brian Westbrook limps through this season with nagging injuries like he’s done for the past three, he finally has someone to spell him in LeSean McCoy, who is more than worthy of one of your mid-round picks. Westbrook isn’t going to unnecessarily play when he sustains his obligatory leg injury that he never fully heels from, as a result I would drop him down about seven or eight spots on your draft board. And just as a kicker, they get a completely capable tight end who won two national titles at University of Florida in Cornelius Ingram, who’ll be starting by the end of the year.

Washington Redskins

Who they drafted: They only had six total picks because they traded them all away on god knows what (they offered Cleveland a couple just to stay in consideration for a trade with Sanchez is probably what it was), and with the first four they drafted defense (the first three of which were absolute studs in college). In the seventh round they took mercy on their paltry offense and took a receiver from Nevada and a tight end from Idaho.

Prognostication: Expect their offense to look considerably worse next year. If they can’t right the ship with Jason Campbell after trying to dump him twice in the past month after his career year, then you’re looking at a lineup with a mediocre line, a slightly better than serviceable and disgruntled quarterback, one of the oldest receiving corps. in the game and two running backs with little to no help around them. On the bright side, their defense should be loaded but the offense might be a turnover machine unto itself, so drop them a few spots in your rankings.

So that was productive, at least enough so that we can warrant doing the same thing for each division until next Friday (at the latest). Back tomorrow with more of the same for let’s say….the AFC North. Few things are more terrifying than appraising the value of Ohio NFL team’s draft picks.

So I apologize for failing to post yesterday. It’s just that, when you write a fantasy football blog and you’re trying to make your efforts solely dedicated to fantasy football, that can be a little trying in the middle of February. There just isn’t that much happening. We still have about a month before the draft heats up, at least for semi-normal people. Those who follow draft combines in the middle of February and aren’t getting paid for it really need to be committed. Just watch college football if you’re that fucking curious. Honestly. It’s much more entertaining than watching people exercise.

But this might be how things are for the next couple weeks because unless we completely transform this into a general NFL blog (which we kind of did during the playoffs), there just isn’t that much to comment on.

For today however, there is a bit of news that might be cause for concern as it pertains to the Titans defense: Albert Haynesworth is going to be testing the free agent market. I’m not sure if anyone recalls what the Titans defense looked like in the weeks during and shortly thereafter his injury, it was still pretty impressive but they lost three of four games from week fifteen if you include their playoff game against the Ravens. The one game they did win during that stretch was, naturally, The Steelers.

But if their team is so vulnerable to lose that many games because of an either absent or banged up defensive tackle, it should definitely make you reconsider drafting them. They’re well coached, and whether or not Haynesworth comes back they’re still loaded with talent. But let’s be honest, that offense generally got by with the skin of their teeth last season. They’re not going to be able to keep from turning the ball over with such a non-productive passing game again. And more turnovers makes for better field position makes for more points allowed in 2009 vs. 2008.

It’s not absolutely imperative that they bring him back, but I’m feeling a lot better about them fantasy wise if they do. I’m always hesitant to draft my defense too early, and I generally pull the trigger when the best available defense is ranked significantly higher compared to the remaining skill players.

For example, a couple years ago I drafted Baltimore’s defense in the eighth round because there was so little separation on the board from the highest running back and receiver to the 20th running back and receiver. So why not draft (at the time) what was considered to be a top three defense? It does warrant mentioning that in hindsight this didn’t exactly work out (for the same reason I am hesitant on Tennessee’s defense in 2008 actually: unreliable quarterback play). But I did win the playoffs that year and came in second during the regular season.

In stark contrast, I waited until about the 12th round to draft my defense in 2008 and ended up with (gulp) Seattle, who I knew wasn’t great but I thought would at least be serviceable (I had just drafted Hasselbeck in the 9th, after all). But for all the rounds leading up to it I thought that I could find either a receiver or running back that had too much value at where they were available. And, if you read this site, you are at least somewhat aware of the tribulations during my 2008 fantasy season. So…take that for what it’s worth.

But back to Tennessee’s defense, even if you do have a penchant for drafting one high, don’t you have to take into consideration the other prospects out there? Minnesota (though they need a new QB but seem prime to snatch up Garcia), Baltimore (though they’re getting old), Philly (occasionally inconsistent) and Pittsburgh (probably the most reliable but the least flashy, which means fewer fantasy points), are all viable candidates for best defense in 2009, not to mention Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, Miami, etc. There is so much uncertainty from season to season, putting too much stock into an entire unit (as opposed to just one player) seems hasty and ill-advised.

On the flip side, if Haynesworth goes to the right team he could drastically alter their course of direction. Given the economy, the team is going to need deep pockets and a willingness to reach into them. That pretty much narrows it down to Washington (probably the most likely fit, as are all players looking to be overpaid), Dallas (though they might take that whole “head stomping with cleats while offensive player isn’t wearing helmet” thing personally from a few years back) and the two New York teams (the Jets might spring for him, the Giants won’t).

Point being, it’s rare you see a defensive tackle, as big of an asshole that he is, have such an effect on the makeup of the league. He’s reportedly looking for $12 million a year, and while I would be apprehensive to pay that to any one defensive lineman, this may be one of the exceptions to the rule. Besides, it beats the shit out of giving that to a running back.

Hopefully back with more tomorrow.

Another noteworthy axing today with the Saints letting go of long time backfield threat Deuce McAllister. This isn’t terribly surprising as Deuce was growing increasingly injury prone, and with all the money they have tied up in Reggie Bush, not to mention the stellar performance of Pierre Thomas, you end up with an released aging running back.

I don’t know what the intricacies are of why a team signs a running back and why they wouldn’t, but I imagine both McAllister and yesterday’s casualty of Fred Taylor will seek out a minimum one year deal a la Shaun Alexander. As to what condition they’re in compared to Alexander in his tinier with the Redskins I have no idea. But its not going to surprise me if neither of them get signed by the start of the 2009 season. The league itself is getting younger and younger and the running back position is at the forefront of this youth movement. They still might be able to contribute on a playoff team (see: Edgerrin James with the Cardinals) but there’s a plethora of aspiring rookies and early twenty-something journeymen who an NFL team will put more value in (even if it’s not reflected in the player’s salary).

As for the Saints, they’re going to have an explosive offense. If Pierre Thomas is left as the lone traditional running back he’s going to be an asset. Reggie Bush was having a phenomenal year before his injury in 2008 and his return was rather unimpressive. Should Bush actually overcome whatever it is that’s mentally/physically ailing him, he will also be a viable third or fourth round fantasy pick (any higher is just too great of a risk).

In other words, the Saints will be fine from a fantasy standpoint and if they have half a brain they won’t waste early draft picks (if any at all) on the backfield. Obviously, when you have statistically the best offense in the NFL, your quarterback throws for over 5,000 yards and you finish the season 8-8…it leads one to assume that your defense could use some improvement. Outside of Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith, every other player on that defense is someone they overpaid because they either A) played on a well run team that could mask their liabilities (Randall Gay); or B) The player had one notable playoff run that the Saints put too much stock in (Jason David).

In short, Deuce McAllister’s career could very well be over and if the Saints do what they should the team should only get better as a result of cutting him. I know it’s commonplace for your average adolescent American male to aspire to be a professional athlete, but if that is the case I recommend going for baseball (more employment opportunities) or basketball (more money). The career is too short and you’re thrown out on your ass faster than you were welcomed.

My apologies for the lack of attention around here lately. We’ve been rather busy and there just hasn’t been much noteworthy stories across the wire as of late, so we didn’t trouble ourselves with it on Friday. But there is some news today that barring what happens in the draft, should have an impact on the first round of most competent fantasy leagues.

That news being of course that the Jacksonville Jaguars have finally cut Fred Taylor. Why? The same reason anyone in the NFL does anything: Cap space. And unfortunately for Taylor it makes all too much sense from a business perspective. His better days are about three years behind him and although he’s had a pretty successful run with the Jags (in north Florida, basically), the team is better off spending that money to load up the offensive line.

So this opens the flood gates for Maurice Jones-Drew to see the predominant amount of carries. Assuming they do not draft anyone too high at the running back position and that passing game stays as anemic as it has been the past year, Drew should be top five potential in just about any competent draft. He was starting to show a tendency to fumble the ball away against good defenses but I imagine that will be remedied if he’s going to be getting 80% of the carries (they still have Greg Jones).

I had Jones last year and his week-to-week performances fluctuated like nobody else in the NFL, but the 20+ point weeks far outweighed 10 and below. Again, barring what happens in the draft and he stays healthy, I’m ranking him just below Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson (though the looming death rattle of a season ending injury is always prevalent) and Brian Westbrook. He’s right in the mix with DeAngelo Williams (splitting carries), Michael Turner (also splitting carries) and Larry Fitzgerald (might see a change at quarterback).

So while the Jags are a longshot to make the playoffs (but really, what’s a long shot in the NFL these days?), they have at least one viable fantasy player for the 2009 season. Maurice Jones-Drew is basically the Calvin Johnson of running backs: He’ll be able to amass top five at his position numbers but his team is most likely staring down the barrel of a 6-10 season, assuming things keep treading downward for the once hopeful Jags.