Fantasy Football

We didn’t get around to previewing the Redskins today. My apologies for that. The schedule for this site is so minute that you’d think we’d be able to keep up with it on a regular basis. We have a legitimate excuse this time, however. We woke up with a blistering headache, searing back pain and extremely mild nausea. Other than that, we let you, the loyal reader down without an alibi.

Obviously there’s been some news to make the rounds in the past day or two that we’ve forgone commenting on, mainly because this isn’t really a news site (we don’t care enough to keep it regularly updated, obviously). But first and foremost, the death of Jim Johnson could end up having a profound effect on the landscape of the NFC East. We’ve already sang the praises of Johnson a couple days ago, but allow me to reiterate a little more clearly: most valuable coordinator in the league during his tinier (he makes Jason Garrett poser ass look like Rich Kotite). He personified the bullshit phrase, more with less. He was never adequately staffed and he did more with the minimal amount of talent at his disposal than any other coordinator in the league. RIP, Mr. Johnson, quite arguably the best who ever did it.

We’ve been avoiding the Brett Favre drama for the majority of the off-season, mainly because it was all such conjecture and speculation. But even with the news that he’s not signing with Minnesota before camp, it still feels premature to comment on his season long absence. Anyhow, we don’t really have anything original to say about it, other than we stll think Rosenfels is a significant improvement over Tavaris Jackson. If fact if they can reign in his penchant for untimely turnovers, the roster is so loaded that they can be a contender in the NFC East. Why not? They made the playoffs last year and damn near knocked off the Eagles in the first round (I’m sure the Giants would have appreciated it, though).

Point being, don’t count out the Vikings just because they didn’t land the ol’ gunslinger. I mean, I don’t like them to improve much from 2008, but they’re in the same position they were in then as they are now; it’s just the conference and division is infinitely improved.

In semi-related news, Mike Vick is back on the open market pending a five game suspension. Reportedly already half the teams have preemptively rescended an invite to camp, Washington included. And you know, I can think of one team that’s been lacking a suitable starting quarterback for the past five years, have had the best running back and a top five defense in the league for two and just got done failing to court a 40 year-old quarterback out of retirement. It seems like they could use him. It really seems like even if he isn’t better than Rosenfels, you could at least bring him into camp and find out for yourselves.

I have to be honest with you, as despicable and wretched and borderline evil as what I think he did was, I’d love to have him with the Eagles now that he’s paid the piper to both the state and league. McNabb, Vick and Westbrook exploding out of the backfield seems almost unstoppable, espcially with their crop of receivers. As good of a fit as he may be for the Vikings to potentially give a chance back under center, the Eagles could use some added explosiveness. Much like every team in the league. But this is all moot, because he’s going to end up in New England and haunt us all in our sleep with what he brings to the table for a title contender.

Back tomorrow with Redskins preview.

If you were surprised by anything that happened this week, then we don’t really know what to say. You should only be surprised that anyone you associate with was actually surprised. This, in a nutshell, is why we generally do not toy around with gambling on the NFL. Despite our success in the regular season, we’re having a difficult time understanding why anybody gambles on the NFL regularly, much less why it’s so immensely popular.

Basically, the best argument going against a college football playoff are their supposed template: The NFL playoffs. If the goal is to determine who the best team was all season (or at the end of the season), then it certainly seems like there is a glitch in the system. Unless the past five years or so have been a complete anomaly. I mean, you can’t compensate for teams not rising to the occasion, that’s on the teams themselves. But is anyone really convinced that any of these teams (with the exception of the Steelers) is the best the NFL had to offer?

Sure, you could call it sour grapes. After all, I went 1-3 in picking winners, and was 3-5 if you include my record against the line. But we had three road teams win, two of them handily (Philly, Arizona) and only one favorite actually show up. It can’t be entirely coincidental that the only home team to win was also the last game of the week. As they watched their counterparts be dispatched by uber-confident wild card teams. It wasn’t exactly a week where just my premonitions were under attack, but rather just conventional wisdom was assaulted by the stampede of parity that has dominated the NFL for about half a decade (and has reached a boiling point now).

I mean, if you’re a die hard NFL fan, aren’t even you having a difficult time taking any of this seriously? Our NFC representative in the Superbowl is going to have no better than a 9-6-1 regular season record. Pragmatics would probably tell you that both the Cardinals (in playoffs by virtue of playing in weakest division) and the Eagles (needed two other losses in week 17 to even qualify for the playoffs) shouldn’t have been in the playoffs in the first place. Essentially, we are looking at the polar opposite of Major League Baseball, where the inequity is palpable but as a result manages to make room for the occasional legitimate upset here and there. That’s opposed to the NFL, in which every team is more or less on equal footing (though some have geographical advantages) but where every team is vulnerable to a loss from virtually every other team. Especially in the playoffs.

At least the Titans Cheerleaders are reliable.

As much as it pains me to say, but it seems that the only franchise that manages to live up to expectations as a #1 seed anymore is the Patriots (and also the Eagles the year they played each other). Certainly that sounds asinine on the heels of being on the losing end of the biggest upset in Superbowl history (or one of them), but for three years they came through accordingly. Who else can we say that about? At least they actually made the Superbowl last year and didn’t lose in the fucking divisional round. Jesus.

So yeah, the biggest disappointment over the weekend was that none of it seemed out of the ordinary. Outside of the Panthers clearly sleeping on the Cardinals, whom they only narrowly bested earlier in the season. We mentioned it before but we’re only kidding at the time in suggesting that maybe the Cardinals were pulling the wool over our eyes by losing so many games in such an embarrassing manner at the end of the season. The logic being that although they would (theoretically) be foregoing home field advantage, their opponents would be caught off-guard when an actual NFL team took the field. Again, at the time, we were only kidding.

Well, while I think they were inconceivably lucky throughout the course of that Falcons game, this strategy certainly worked against the Panthers. Who couldn’t have taken the Cardinals any less seriously than they did. Everyone is quick to (rightfully) jump on Delhomme for the six turnovers he alone accounted for, but if the team as a whole had actually approached this game as anything more than a formality, then they might have occasionally put a defender on Larry Fitzgerald, whose at least a top three receiver in the NFL.

But it goes without saying that the turnovers did them in. You might recall that while we were making picks during the regular season, Delhomme’s penchant for multiple turnover games was a constant point of stress for us. Naturally, because my gambling luck has been shit for about four months now, he saved said game for when we actually picked them to cover.

Anyway, that’s the only game we have plans to cover with any manner of depth. I’d like to get onto this website and detail every game in a flummoxed tone that would convey my disbelief, but I can’t lie to you people. That was the only game we watched and were somewhat stunned by, and really it was just a repeated turnovers from a quarterback whose prone to repeatedly turning the ball over. This brings my now abhorrent playoff record (if you include picking winners and against the line) to an epically bad 6-10. With the Eagles accounting for three of those correct picks.

Again, no fantasy commentary, we’ll try to right the ship later tonight.

Naturally, we got a quirky finale to a quirky season. The teams contending for the playoffs that you expected to show up failed to do so, and those that you had diminished expectations for managed to tear the roof off of whatever building they were playing in. This seems to be true for everyone, of course, except for the Broncos. Whom everyone — except for me, of course — fully expected to shit the bed, and the shit the bed they did. Actually, I’m not sure you can consider what the Broncos did failing to meet expectations. They’ve had the second worst defense all season this side of the Lions.

Speaking of which, managed to reach the 0-16 milestone, becoming the first team in NFL history to do so. Some of us were skeptical that the Packers would actually come through with a win, as they’ve been tremendously disappointing themselves (even more so than the Lions, to be honest). But no, the Lions proved just how inept they were, failing to capitalize on opportunity after opportunity, all the way until the bitter end when Ryan Grant fumbled the ball ten yards downfield in between five defenders, only for some receiver to squeeze in and recover it right at the goal line. In all fairness to them they were looking mighty disheveled after the 70 yard touchdown reception from Donald Driver.

We actually dragged ourselves to a bar to watch this game (the first time that’s happened all season), and we were amazed at the lack of concern with a team about to make the record books. If you do not know already, we live in Columbus, Ohio. Which is basically a homogenization of Browns fans, Bengals fans, Steelers fans, then a handful of fans for teams like the Packers, Cowboys and bandwagon Patriots fans. This particular bar though, consisted mainly of Bengals fans, as their game wasn’t being aired locally in favor of the Browns-Steelers slugfest. Now, I’m not usually one to criticize, but the only game more pitiable than the Lions-Packers was the Chiefs-Bengals.

At least in the Lions game, we had a team putting the finishing touches on the worst era for a professional franchise, potentially ever. And a team hoping to fend off embarrassment. The Bengals-Chiefs game offered nothing in the way of intrigue or hope or entertainment. It was just two teams with no hope for 2009 going through the motions and waiting for it to be over. Now I understand that everyone has “their team”, and that usually takes precedence over everything else.

But I don’t much care where I reside, when the Chiefs-Bengals is on 40% of the televisions, and that glorious Packers-Lions matchup for the record books is relegated to just one television you could fit inside an Apollo shuttle, then everything is wrong. The owners of the establishment, the people watching the Bengals game, the city, the state, the world. Anywhere and to anyone this makes sense to, is wrong. It also says something about Bengals fans that they would show up in mass to bother watching what “their team” is currently producing. What I’m trying to say is, I need to move.

Take heed though, Lions fans. As while you may have just finished the worst season in NFL history, you were by no means the worst team. No, that honor belongs to the other team in Ohio: the Cleveland Browns.

Have to wait 'til next year, son.

Your eternal optimist might say, “at least they didn’t go all season without scoring a touchdown”, but they would be conveniently overlooking the fact that in a loss, Detroit put up more points in Green Bay than the Browns had put up in the last six games. In short, they were right to clean house while the game was going on. For all their potential, they managed to end the season as the worst team in the league, and that usually starts at the top.

But enough about the failures of the NFL, lets talk about the winners. The Panthers clinched a bye with a last second field goal, the Vikings clinched the division with the same. The Dolphins and Ravens both clinched playoff births with wins over the Jets and Jags, effectively barring an 11-5 Patriots team from the playoffs in favor of an 8-8 AFC West Champion. The Bears cost themselves a playoff spot because they couldn’t beat the 8-8 Texans (the team that represents what the NFL wants every team to be) who along with the Cowboys handed over the final wild card spot to the once lowly Eagles. As in, last week the Eagles were pretty lowly.

I mentioned last week that these two teams were of the more erratic variety offered by the NFL, and holy shit did the Cowboys prove me right. Really, it wasn’t so much that the Eagles just came out gangbusters thrashing a team that everyone has a love-hate complex with. No, Dallas simply played the least inspired football of all season relative to their talent (well, outside of the Browns, of course).

Really it shouldn’t come as any surprise. For the past two seasons, the Dallas Cowboys have played football rather haphazardly. Sporting what’s akin to a “too cool for school” approach to the game. That came back on them ten-fold last night in Philly. You could really pin the blame on three people for the loss, which is remarkable considering how bad it was: Tony Romo, Pacman Jones and Wade Phillips. Romo, whose clearly never going to be the quarterback everyone wants him to be, had two turnovers that resulted in defensive touchdowns, which wasn’t exactly shocking considering the game had playoff implications. He’s been doing it all season, but scrambling around in the backfield with the ball extended two feet away from his body finally caught up to him.

Pacman Jones was responsible for an unnecessary roughness penalty and a turnover that resulted in ten points for the Eagles late in the second quarter, effectively taking whatever wind was left in Dallas’ sails. And Wade Phillips did absolutely nothing to counteract all of this on the sideline. In all, the team had five turnovers (four fumbles and one interception), Romo and Pacman were responsible for four of them.

But really, the entire team looked indifferent. Part of that is the players a team like Dallas actively seeks out, and part of that is the result of ineffective coaching. Let me be on record as saying that hiring Jason Garrett to coach this team will be an unmitigated disaster, and we’re not going to see a turnaround unless they can bring in Bill Cowher or someone of that ilk to manage the clusterfuck of egomaniacs Jerry Jones currently employs.

As a casual Eagles fan I know my sole reaction to all of this is supposed to be glee, but when Romo fumbled for the second time and slammed his fists into the same ground that his face was buried in, we really thought we might see some carnage on the sidelines. It was painful to watch, especially if you know any Cowboys fans or were in close proximity to any at the time. All I can say is, do not listen to our fantasy advice any more. The season is over for 90% of us so it’s moot anyways. But we’re wrong much more frequently than we’re right, and it’s at a point now where we either have to convince our employer to change the URL, or recuse ourselves from Talking Fantasy Football altogether.

Anyhow, we apologize for the lack of fantasy discussion. We’ll try to post again later today to compensate.

You guys know me, I don’t like to complain. But the result of yesterday’s fantasy matchup was just a little too much for me to keep my mouth shut. For starters, the three guys I had playing in the Thursday night game racked up 75 points for me, with seven players left to my opponents 8, I felt like I had it in the bag. Well, going into the Panthers-Giants game I was sporting a 40 point lead with Jon Stewart left. In short, the person I’m playing decides to start Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs. Ward goes on to reach milestones that we haven’t seen since Jim Brown, and Brandon Jacobs rushes for three touchdowns, only to give one of the more incoherent post-game interviews I’ve seen this side of Lloyd Carr.

Whatever, the guy who beat me hadn’t once scored over 130 points all season, out of nowhere he goes into Monday night with 157, and still has his kicker going. I would just like to point out that Ward and Jacobs have not managed to have simultaneous serviceable, much less great fantasy performances in the same game. My opponent was hedging his bets to what some might say a comical degree and it managed to payoff. Not only did he get over 300 yards of total offense and three touchdowns out of it, he also got a win and a chance to play in the finals. Where the likelihood of such a thing happening again is a virtual impossibility.

There are a couple things I could have done differently, namely switched out my kicker (Neil Rackers) for someone off free agency and played New England’s defense instead of Minnesota’s. But even with Arizona’s tribulations in cold weather, I would have never thought they would look that bad. Ever. So I passed on New England’s defense which is known to give up points and kept Neil Rackers in for the same reason. Not realizing that the Cardinals were basically the aliens from Signs.

Speaking of which, is there an outside shot that Ken Whisenhunt and the Cardinals are putting us on, and losing these games so spectacularly to keep the other five NFC playoff teams on their heels? He had to figure they weren’t getting a bye, so why not just bottom out and lead everyone to believe you’re a pretender going into the playoffs at 8-8? I mean, I would assume it was just the weather (as we’ve gone over before), but they made Tavaris Jackson look playoff ready at home last week. And I am skeptical that anyone is this effected by some frozen water. I know I sort of conceded that they were just a second ago, but I still do not believe it.

Also of interest from that game: Considering Randy Moss has eleven touchdowns on the year and it’s considered under-performing (it’s less than half he had all season), I think it speaks in droves about this New England team and Moss himself. He’s tied for the league lead with Boldin and will break 1,000 yards receiving again next week against Buffalo. In short, he’s still the best receiver in the game, he just can’t have Aaron Brooks, Kerry Collins or Andrew Walter throwing to him. Wait, that’s not even remotely fair. What I meant to say was: he can’t be in a Raiders uniform. I would assume the problems with Raider nation are more systemic than just the plethora of sub-par quarterbacks they’ve had since Rich Gannon retired. No team is that unlucky.

So we're all in agreement? This Never happened, right?

Well, except for the Browns, that is. Right now that entire city is still demanding playoff like performances from their team, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news, Cleveland. But it’s never going to happen. At least not in 2008. Your team hasn’t scored a touchdown in five straight games, before that they pissed away three losses and managed to break all sorts of records while doing so. Right now, this is the only team in the NFL that would be a dog at home against the Lions.

And it’s nothing personal, Browns fans. They just really are not that good. They all seem to be reading from a different playbook, Jerome Harrison and Donte Stallworth do not see the ball nearly enough, not to mention all of your receivers are disgruntled and your coach looks scared shitless every time they pan to him on the sidelines.

But all of that is moot, really. Because you’re not going to be winning games in the NFL with Ken Dorsey as your quarterback. He threw three interceptions, and if you’re wondering what that brings his touchdown-interception ratio to after three games and a quarter, it’s 0/8. I guess the Browns finally decided to put him out of his misery and send Gradkowski in, who managed to add a fourth one to that, making Cinncy’s sporadically feisty defense look like the ‘85 Bears.

Personally — and this is just my opinion — if they wanted to play a quarterback from a north Ohio MAC school, they definitely went with the wrong one. Josh Cribbs has probably thrown the best looking passes the Browns have produced in the past three weeks. He played quarterback at Akron and if nothing else, he can bide his time with scrambling and even gain yards on the ground. That alone makes him a better option that Ken Dorsey.

Oh well, at least they managed to make the other half of the state feel a tad better about the state of their team. If nothing else, Kirk Fitzpatrick seems to have grown into a suitable backup for the 2009 season. And really, that was all the Bengals were going to get out of 2008 anyways. So long as they didn’t go winless and there were signs of improvement, I say this in all seriousness, the Bengals couldn’t have expected much more from the season.

Sure, you could have expected them to prepare themselves better for the inevitable injuries that plague every team these days, but the circumstances being what they are (Carson Palmer out, and aging offensive line and Chad Johnson, no reliable running back), a potential 4-11-1 season isn’t look so bad. Right now they’re one of the better really bad teams in the NFL, on par with the Seahawks. Bang up job, Mr. Brown. With any luck you can draft the next Chris Perry in 2009.

Moving on.

As expected, Detroit was blown out by a Saints team that’s attempting to get their quarterback over 5,000 yards, because if they’re not going to compete for the playoffs, they want to at least showcase that they had the best quarterback in the league for the 2008 season. Anyhow, Detroit has one last ditch effort against a defunct and indifferent Green Bay team next week. I actually consider this must watch television, which should tell you something about how lightly I take the NFL. At least they have an army of draft picks for next season even if it still won’t be enough to right the ship. Then again, maybe I shouldn’t speak so hastily, look at the Dolphins this year.

On a fantasy related note: I take it all back, Marques Colston. I take it all back. I still manage to lose in heartbreaking fashion this week, but by golly for once it wasn’t because I drafted you in the fourth. I don’t want to give you too much credit, all you had to do was put up a decent game against the Lions. But all we ask when it comes to fantasy football is that you refrain from making us look idiotic. Thomas Jones made us look ridiculous in 2007, and made us look even more so this year when we passed on him form (gulp) Kenny Watson. That’s what he gets for putting up Ki-Jana Carter like numbers in 2007, he gets to make me look like a spiteful idiot.

(Back to the Bengals running game for a second: what the fuck happened with Kenny Watson anyways? Is there a reason they benched their leading rusher from last season, after releasing their leading rusher from the previous four seasons other than to feel validated in that horrible Chris Perry draft pick in 2004? Ladies and gentlemen that make up Bengal nation: This is why your team’s running game isn’t any stronger: Spite. Unfortunately for you, they’re running an actual NFL franchise and not a fantasy team).

There was a lot to get to from the past week, in real and fantasy football alike. We’ll try to cover it later today. And if you’re an avid reader of this site, you know that in no way is that going to happen.

Our apologies for being so untimely, we had to write this at our late lunch.

It’s time to post our line picks for the upcoming week, and I hate to do it but I told you it would happen. After a strong 10-4-2 start in week 12, we followed up in week 13 with a similar 10-6, bring our record against the lines to 20-10-2 on the season. Or rather, since we’ve been doing this. If it happens again this week and we increase our winning percentage, I think it’s safe to label us a savant for these purposes. Again, you’re welcome.

As far as fantasy advice is concerned, we’re working with a contrasting success rate. That is, our fantasy suggestions would be justification for throwing us into prison, considering hosting a website on fantasy football is supposed to suggest we might be an authority on the subject.

Onto the lines/fantasy advice. Home team in caps.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 Oakland
Line Pick: Well fuck me. I didn’t even realize there was another shitty Thursday night game tonight until just now. See, that’s why we do this. So we actually give a shit about the NFL Tuesday-Saturday. Anyhow, I’d probably take Oakland here. The Charger defense is wretched and Oakland’s is good enough to keep it within a score. I hate doing this because it puts a modicum of faith in JaMarcus Russell or whoever Cable plugs in at quarterback to accomplish anything. I can’t wait to read later tonight that Oakland lost by ten.

Fantasy Advice: No one on the Raiders unless we have a clear cut picture on who’s getting the majority of the carries in their backfield. San Diego should produce good games from any speculative number of wide outs, and Tomlinson is capable of delivering. But putting faith in San Diego to live up to expectations is obviously a futile enterprise. In short, I have no fucking idea. Start who you normally would and bench Vincent Jackson if you think he isn’t due for a good game.

CHICAGO -6.5 Jacksonville
Line Pick: Well, both teams suffered disappointing losses last week, but Chicago is still contending for the playoffs. That, combined with the home field advantage and Jacksonville’s banged up offensive line, I think is enough to lay the points with the Bears. Still, I take this line with a lot of trepidation.

Fantasy Advice: If last week is any indication, Kyle Orton and Matt Forte are going to light this defense up. You could say the same thing about David Gerrard but I have no idea who he’d throw to and Jones-Drew is amazingly sporadic with his exceptional play. You have to start him, but it feels like a week to week ordeal. Not once have I felt confident about a Jones-Drew game. yet he averages over 16 points a week and I’ve started every week he hasn’t had a bye.

Minnesota (no line) DETROIT
Line Pick: When I say “no line”, it means for the life of me I can’t find one anywhere. And that is understandable. With both Kevin and Pat Williams suspended for four games as a result of the steroid scandal no one recalls or gives a shit about, Vegas probably needs a couple extra days to recalibrate their stance. I can understand their trepidation. Much of Minnesota’s success hinges on their pass rush. When you remove two potential pro-bowlers from it, well, it becomes conceivable that they could lose to a 0-12 team on the road. If the line is over ten we say take Detroit, under stick with the Vikings and realize that if you’re picking the Lions to outright lose this game, you’re picking them to go 0-16, which I think is a fitting conclusion to the Matt Millen era. Hey, remember when they were 6-2 last season and everyone though they’d make the playoffs? Man, that was a wild two months.

Fantasy Advice: I still like Peterson and Taylor to come through with some good numbers. Calvin Johnson should have a monster day with the crippled front seven from the Vikes, depending on just how crippled you consider them to be, Kevin Smith and Shaun McDonald might prove to be viable options as well.

GREEN Bay -5.5 Houston
Line Pick: Hmm, a dome team going up to Green Bay in December, that always works out well. Even though Houston covered handily, I have no idea why they are getting relatively generous lines. They are 5-7 right? I’ll take the Pack to win by a couple scores.

Fantasy Advice: Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Kevin Walter, Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant & Aaron Rodgers should all come through for their owners. I also like Green Bay’s defense to rack up some points. They have an uncanny ability to make mediocre quarterbacks look like Akili Smith.

TENNESSEE -13.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: Unless you like Ken Dorsey going up against one of the two best defenses in the league on the road, I’d lay the points.

Fantasy Advice: Chirs Johnson & LenDale White should tally up some yards. I actually like Justin Gage to come through with a serviceable performance. As for Cleveland…if Lucifer hasn’t sucked whatever dexterity was left in Braylon Edwards I don’t know if we’ll be able to tell, because I just can’t see Ken Dorsey getting him the ball on a consistent basis. In other words, the passing game will be shit, and as a result the running game will be shit. I wouldn’t start any Browns unless you feel differently about Dorsey, and then you can only justify the tight end (Winslow or Heiden) or Edwards.

INDIANAPOLIS -13.5 Cincinnati
Line Pick: Tough week for the NFL in Ohio, but when isn’t it? Hahaha. But seriously, I’d take the Colts, who’ve struggled to cover lately but at least it was on the road. In the safe haven of that state of the art ice skating rink they play in, Manning should be able to redeem himself from last week in Cleveland. Either way, the Colts are fucked in the playoffs if they’re struggling that much on the road against the Browns. If they have to go to New England, New York, Denver or Baltimore, cold weather teams with functioning offenses, it will be lambs to the slaughter. In short, some things never change and Manning will never look comfortable with a millimeter of snow on the ground. Honestly, the aliens in Signs reacted more professionally to the site of water than Manning does to snow.

Fantasy Advice: Manning, Dallas Clark and Addai should all run rough shot over Marvin Lewis’ improved from 2007 but still terrible defense.

A reference to the only good Shyamalan film? I guess.

NEW ORLEANS -3 Atlanta
Line Pick: Even though both Carolina and Atlanta disproved our “NFC South sucks balls on the road” theory, the records are still really, really disproportionate. Not to mention both Carolina and San Diego we’re still playing inferior opponents, even if they were impressive wins. But of the four in the division, The Saints have the biggest disparity in road vs. home performances. I like New Orleans to cover and make a late season push to attempt to win this division. They’ll need a lot of assistance (divisional opponent losses), but it isn’t beyond comprehension. I don’t think anyone is looking at the Panthers or Bucs and thinking these teams are full-proof.

Fantasy Advice: Any Saint receiver you can get your hands on. With Deuce McAllister out Pierre Thomas should be indispensable. On the Falcons side I like Turner, Wade and Jenkins to put up some points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 Philadelphia
Line Pick: I know the Eagles looked impressive against the Cardinals and I know they always play the Giants harder than anyone else in the league, but I’m not betting against this Giants team until they give me reason too. I would be lying if I said I didn’t have a looming sense of a 3-interception day from Manning, but I am going with the favorite. Also, lets be honest, I think everyone’s concerns about Warner in cold weather were validated last week.

Fantasy Advice: Jacobs/Ward, Toomer, Hixon and Boss will all have respectable performances, while I wouldn’t know where to start with Philly. Is LJ Smith still playing? Go with him if he is. I could see DeSean Jackson breaking off a large touchdown on Sunday, but it hinges on McNabb getting enough time in the pocket to get it to him.

4PM games through Monday later tonight.

This is on ongoing segment we’ll hold onto, as kvetching about inexplicably bad performances is half the enjoyment of participating in fantasy sports. Considering only roughly 20% of us ever finish in the money or walk away with a sense of validation, I think maintaining the one weekly post where we single out and ridicule various players is a necessity.

1) Peyton Manning
Maybe you deserve this top spot and maybe you do not, but I have you on my team so we’re putting you here regardless. Jesus. One would assume that in times like these, I wish I had a second quarterback on my team, but it’s exactly the opposite. If I had, say, Gus Ferotte as a backup and he is playing the Bears like he did this week while Manning is playing the Browns; there isn’t a chance in hell I’m starting Ferotte over Manning based on the inconceivable notion that Ferotte could outscore Manning under any circumstances, much less quadruple Manning’s fantasy production on a single play against a superior opponent. So instead of being bitter that just my first round draft pick had an unbelievably terrible performance against one of the leagues worst defenses, I would have been bitter that I left a perfectly viable performer sitting on my bench to rot. Anyhow, get fucked with a farming utensil, Peyton.

2) Vincent Jackson
You’re not exactly a power player so you probably do not deserve this sort of recognition. But still, what the fuck, Vincent? You play an entire game and you fail to catch a single pass. We live on the other end of the country so we weren’t able to watch the game, we had assumed you were Anquan Boldined or something. But no, you just failed to score even a fraction of a point in fantasy. More importantly, Who the fuck still goes by Vincent in their 20’s? Isn’t it just customary to cut it to Vince, or Vinnie, if you want to go the Italian route? I think this explains a lot about why you can actually start a game at receiver and fail to score a single point or have any impact on the game whatsoever.

It may not exude athletic prowess, but if someone said his name at least I would assume it was in reference to an adult.

3) Braylon Edwards
We could fill this list with people on our fantasy team alone, but I promise this is the last one, as it’s kind of a stretch. Shit, relative to that putrid contest that took place in Cleveland on Sunday, Edwards was among the top performers. I mean he only caught two passes for 36 yards, but still, it felt like the world was going to collapse on itself with both receptions. This isn’t really warranted anymore. Once you have so many terrible weeks in one season, you’re supposed to be excluded from contention here. But Edwards has been such a regular disappointment that I can’t help myself. Oh, and he has Ken Dorsey throwing to him for the rest of the season, too. To be frank, we can only go uphill. Shit, at least on their last drive, Dorsey had the balls to throw to him beyond five yards. That was impressive.

4) Laverneus Coles
I’ve never encouraged a player to retire in any sport, but I think it’s time we hang up the cleats, Laverneus. Two receptions for two total yards are Rudy numbers. That is, the books will recognize that you played but no one else will. Thanks for showing up, I hope the long distance relationship with Chad Pennington is going well, but it appears to be effecting your season. I mean, you have Brett Favre, Mr. Gunslinger/unapologetic interception throwing to you. He’ll throw into triple coverage for a five percent chance of getting you the ball. And you only manage 2 catches for 2 yards. Disgraceful.

5) Brandon Marshall
Alright, what the fuck is going on? Has Eddie Royale in his rookie year usurped you during your breakout season? That would be unprecedented turnover for an NFL team. The only time I can recall this happening is Randy Moss out-shined Jake Reed in his rookie season when Reed was about to take the leap. They both had good seasons (everyone on the Minnesota team did), but Reed was an afterthought to Carter and Moss. What’s amazing isn’t that you failed to score ten points, it’s that you failed to do so while your teammates racked up 34 points of offense in a stunning upset. Five catches for 55 yards might get you recognition in the real world, but over here in fantasy land that only earns you the wrath of hapless pretend owners. It’s palpable, I know.

Honorable mention: Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Matt Cassel (couldn’t do it based on only a two game history of great games, but the hype he received for those two games, the backlash was tempting), Joseph Addai, Antonio Gates, Randy Moss.

Probably it for today.

So 2-1 isn’t a terrible start to the week, But let’s be honest, the only game that I could have potentially missed was the game I ended up missing. No one outside of Washington state or Michigan could have realistically predicted the Seahawks or Lions to cover. I guess Schlereth and Wingo were right about Warner and I was wrong about Boldin (but right about Fitzgerald and Breaston). I only saw from mid-second quarter on (fucking family obligations), but by my estimation, Boldin had at least four dropped passes (including two drops in the end zone on the same drive). Those fucking SEC, Texas and SoCal schools better thank Christ they aren’t forced to travel north for bowl games.

On a personal note, nothing makes you feel fucked like a fantasy performer dropping four touchdowns on you and in the process racking up more fantasy points in one game than he’s had in the past four weeks combined. To add insult to injury, I happen to be an Eagles fan. I am actually considering renouncing this. If I do not have an effigy of Brian Westbrook burning on my front lawn when I lose this week, I’ll wonder what’s happened to me.

Anyway, onto the picks and non-specific fantasy projections for the 1PM games this Sunday.

BUFFALO -7 San Fransisco
Line Pick: Buffalo’s at home and it is a considerable advantage. But seven is a pretty sizable spread for a team that has one win in the past six weeks and it’s against the Chiefs. The Niners have looked much…pluckier since Singletary lost his fucking mind at a press conference. I’m going to take the Niners and their solid defense to force a couple turnovers and keep this one close.

Fantasy Advice: Both teams have much better defenses than they do offenses. But both running backs should have respectable games and I like how Vernon Davis has been performing the past couple weeks. Do not anticipate a lot of earth shattering performances in this one. Instead, expect this to be a testament against the hard salary cap and excessive parity.

Baltimore -7 CINCINNATI
Line Pick: When the Bengals second best performance of the season is a tie at home in the ugliest game played all season, it is hard to pick them to cover against the Ravens, a team that trounced the same opponent a week later 36-7. Cincy has a habit of keeping a lot of games closer than you’d expect. But Baltimore has a lot riding on these games that are supposed to be akin to a bye week, to counter-balance any losses in an increasingly heated playoff race. Take the better team to win convincingly in the Ravens.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Mason and Willis McGahee and/or Ray Rice should have respectable performances. As far as Cinncy is concerned, if Chad Johnson isn’t playing I can’t even recommend starting Housh. If Cinncy wasn’t so accustomed to losing the city would have formed an angry mob to storm the gates of the front office by now.

If only Willis McGahee has the same perseverance of the Stanfield crew.

Indianapolis -4.5 CLEVELAND
Well, Cleveland is basically Fredo to Indy’s Sonny Corleone, and you are more than welcome to your own opinion. But I have to begrudgingly take the Colts to continue this current win streak and win by a few touchdowns. I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of a Browns-Giants type beatdown, what with Derek Anderson returning to the starting lineup and not having the burden of a possible replacement anymore. Not to mention that Indy has always struggled in cold weather environment because they’ve always played home games in a fucking dome. But from my perspective, Indy is just too hot right now to not cover 4.5 against a team that by all accounts is falling apart at the seams.

Fantasy Advice: I like Edwards to drop about two passes for significant yardage but still get in the end zone. Jerome Harrison might be a reliable option in some of your deeper leagues and Derek Anderson might be worth a gamble in a two quarterback league. On the flip side, I like Addai and Reggie Wayne to finally break out of a relative fantasy slump, as the Browns have a bottom ten defense in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Green Bay at home is a lot different that Green Bay on the road in New Orleans. I like Rodgers to rebound and Ryan Grant to run buckwild over a team that occasionally mails it in on defense (see last week against Atlanta). Not to mention that all three of Carolina’s losses have been on the road in much less hostile environments than Lambeau.

Fantasy Advice: Jennings, Rodgers & Donald Lee should all put up good to great performances. I would say Donald Driver, but he is having knee issues and is pushing 70 years old. Carolina is an odd duck when it comes to fantasy. DeAngelo Williams is, much to my dismay, having a great fantasy season despite being roughly four feet tall. Steve Smith is a must start regardless of the circumstances. And if you have alternatives I would steer clear of Delhomme, Muhammad and Jonathan Stewart,

ST. LOUIS (Pick ‘em) Miami
Line Pick: So let me get this straight, the Rams have won two games all season against a banged up Cowboys team and an over-confident Redskins team. They’ve lost their last five and I’m supposed to pick them to beat a well coached, disciplined and unrelenting Miami team because…why, exactly? They’re at home? They’re due for a win? That’s alright. I’ll take the team that’s playing for something other than a higher draft pick.

Fantasy Advice: If Steven Jackson plays, it makes Torry Holt, Marc Bulger and Donnie Avery all genuinely viable starters depending on the depth of your league. If he doesn’t, then bury these guys as deep on your bench as humanly possible and forget they’re even on your team for week 13. Miami is a wild card at receiver, but with Caramillo being out for the season he makes Ted Ginn look a lot better. Obviously Ronnie Brown is a starter, but Ricky Williams might warrant consideration against this paltry Rams defense.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 New Orleans
Line Pick: Well, if one of these NFC South teams we’re going to win a divisional road game, this would probably be it. The Saints should have a ton of momentum after that violation of the Packers. But it would be embarrassing to break our code in the same week we theorize it. But we will take New Orleans to lose a close one against a Tampa team that always keeps it close and is undefeated at home, especially since they only lost by four in New Orleans. I don’t know, if I’m gambling in Vegas, I might avoid this game like a Romeo Crennel avoids a clue.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Warrick Dunn is getting about 90% of the carries, so he is a must start regardless of who else you own. Garcia is reliable in two QB leagues. If you’re feeling confident in either Patrick Crayton, Joey Galloway or Jerramy Stevens, then knock yourself out. But it’s too much of a crap shoot for my tastes. New Orleans is even more fickle. The team always puts up points but the ball is spread around so much you’d think all their receivers were Broncos running backs. Tampa’s defense is going to show up, it’s a matter of New Orleans avoiding an identical offensive scheme to what they did last week that will keep Tampa’s defense honest.

NY GIANTS -3 Washington
Line Pick: Yeah, I’m not sure why the Giants aren’t always the Sunday night game, as they seem to be involved in one of the three best every week, and this is no exception. With that said, I’m taking them to cover handily. It’s difficult to sweep a season series against a team, especially one as impressive as Washington. But if they beat them in Washington (albeit it was the first game of the NFL season and Washington is all but literally a different team now), I fully expect them to win in the Meadowlands. That entails covering three points.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Ward if Jacobs sits his second game out should provide a productive week. We also like Kevin Boss, as we always take the a serviceable to pro bowl tight end to have a big game if he’s going up against a great defense. Along the same line of thinking, we like Cris Cooley to come through for fantasy owners. As great as the Giants are, if they have any flaw it would be prone to giving up big weeks against stud receivers. I like Santana Moss to have one of his token 20 point games. I don’t know, it is really difficult to predict any opponent of the Giants to put up big offensive statistics when they’re liable to decapitate the quarterback on ever play.

Evening game picks later tonight.

Well, that wasn’t half bad. In case you were wondering or even happened to notice, we made picks against the line last week just to see how we would fare and to have it documented for public consumption. So far, we’re 9-4-2. We whiffed on the Jets-Titans game with glorious incompetence and the game we were most confident (i.e. obnoxious) about (Chargers-Colts) actually ended up being a push, but seem to have a pretty solid understanding of the league with five weeks left in it. You’re welcome.

At this point, I’m just beginning to feel bad for Chargers fans. The day they lost that game to Denver on the blown Hochuli call, I drunk off my ass at 3:30 in the morning playing poker at Caesar’s with a slew of disheartened Chargers fans who were feeling trepidation about the season current season. I did my best to reassure them of their team’s talent, poise and budding superstar quarterback, and that would be enough to carry them into the playoffs even with the one horrendously close loss.

Well, if you were watching the game last night and paying even an iota of attention to Al Michaels, you would have heard him on one of the 132 times he mentioned it that the Chargers have now lost four games this season within the final 30 seconds of regulation. When you play only sixteen games a season, that will cost you. Because the parity being what it is, you’re not going to be competitive in every game. Occasionally you will lose decisively.

When you lose over a quarter of your games scheduled (with five to go) in heartbreaking fashion, you’re going to miss the post-season. If they win out the best they can do is 9-7 and given that their defense looks like something from a Varsity Blues opponent, I wouldn’t be too optimistic about their chances. Not to antagonize, but if it makes you feel any better, 9-7 probably isn’t getting you in the playoffs anyhow.

At least there's something to distract you from your crushing home losses.

Other than that, we learned a few things going into Thanksgiving. Namely, that the Giants are unquestionably the best team in the NFL right now, and barring injury should almost coast to the Superbowl. It warrants mentioning that barring injury isn’t exactly some little caveat for this team. Yesterday they handled what is arguably a top five team in the league right now, on the road, and without their two best playmakers in Brandon Jacobs and Plaxico Burress. Basically, the only players that whose losses would set them back gravely are Manning and Tuck. But for how injury prone this team is, it seems like that cloud is eventually going to start raining on their least expendable offensive and defensive players.

Shit, Tuck wouldn’t be nearly as integral as he is if Osi was playing this season, but that is just a testament to coaching that they can have as shallow a bench as they did yesterday and still be dominant. Outside of one inexplicable curb stomping at the hands of the completely inept Browns, this team looks poised to repeat.

The march to unsuspecting mediocrity continues in the NFC South, as each and every team proves incapable of playing on the road. The Panthers got down 17-0 before eventually giving up 45 points to a rookie quarterback and a running back who doesn’t break 5′10. Bang up job, guys. You want to know why they lost and their offense was so inept in the first half? Because Jake Delhomme wasn’t exactly making a point to spread the ball around. He completed 21 passes on the day, over a third of which were to Steve Smith. If your defense is going to play so tentatively, then you have to match them point for point and actually diversify your targets, not just throw 15 balls to the same receiver. So yeah, eat a bag of dicks, Delhomme.

/Muhsin Muhammad owner rant. Sure he caught a touchdown, but it was in the final minutes of the game and was noticeably under-utilized for the first fifty-five.

Ugliest game of the week goes to the Philadelphia Eagles, who also took home the prize for most dysfunctional and most indifferent. Congrats on the big week, guys. If you could, I would like McNabb, Westbrook and Andy Reid to apologize to every fantasy owner who put their faith in your clearly chaotic organization, only to see you throw Kevin Kolb to the wolves on the road against a top five NFL defense. You guys are obviously missing the playoffs, but your defense could at least contain Baltimore to under 30 points. You just made Joe Flacco look like Joe Montana, and that he most certainly is not. Good luck with all your draft picks next year. Maybe you’ll land yourself Michael Crabtree. But since it is now apparent you’ll need a new quarterback to throw to him, maybe you’ll land Chase Daniels as well.

Speaking of awards, our Tim Hightower/Peyton Hillis/Mark Bradley award this week goes to…Harry Douglas. Harry, a rookie who played his college ball at Louisville and never really got on the field until Bobby Petrino left (and who ironically sort of sent his current team into a downward spiral), managed to get rack up one rushing touchdown (despite playing with Jerius Norwood and Michael Turner), one punt return for a touchdown and 92 yards on four receptions all in one day. Congratulations to Harry, and the people who started him in leagues composed of 24+ teams.

In short, it was a great week to own aging receivers (Owens, Randy Moss, Coles & in an entirely different spectrum of aging, Isaac Bruce), undersized running backs (Kevin Faul, Warrick Dunn, Michael Turner, and DeAngelo Williams) and quarterbacks you probably didn’t start unless you drafted Tom Brady or are in a league that doesn’t fit within the parameters of your compute monitor (Shaun Hill, Chad Pennington, Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Trent Edwards and to a lesser extent, Jake Delhomme). If you were wondering, I just named 15 of the top 25 scorers for week 12 of the 2008 fantasy football season. In short, it was basically like every other week, with names scheduled to change unaccordingly.

Back tomorrow with more.

Sometimes when I make predictions, I occasionally go back to see just how inept/clairvoyant I am. It seems like I am shooting about 50%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. It really depends on how you measure these things. For instance, I may have been right about Steve Breaston having a big week on Sunday, but I was incorrect about two other people on the same list. That would give me a 60% average for that particular post. However, you certainly do not quantify that the same as you would, say, predicting the NFL landscape for the entire season ahead. That might be weighted a little more heavily than a run of the mill top five we do here.

This is me on my good days, without the fake third nipple.

So remember when I railed for my first fucking week on this site about how expendable running backs are in the NFL, thus rendering them expendable in fantasy football? And that a top-tier receiver is actually more of an asset given the direction the league is heading in offensively? Yeah, well it turns out that is completely wrong. Not in the sense that the league is more pass oriented, but that it is so pass oriented everyone seems to be running three wide sets with a receiving tight end and a running back coming out of the backfield, so the ball is spread out to the point that even a Terrell Owens or Steve Smith or Greg Jennings is a week to week roll of the dice.

Now, there are obviously receivers having good seasons. Most of them surprisingly good: Roddy White, Santana Moss, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall etc. But with the format we use to score my league, there are currently only 13 receivers that have gone over 100 points, compared to 18 running backs. And most of those games come in droves. Look at the receiving leader this year in fantasy: Santana Moss. He is leading the league in receiving, sure, but he has three games with under forty yards (no more than five catches in any of those), and was completely shut out with zero points in week five against the Eagles.

This isn’t to say that you won’t have letdown games from running backs either. But if you look at the current running back points leader Reggie Bush, the only game he failed to go over 20 points in was the one he didn’t play. And when a running back in the top twenty has a bad game, it usually means he is held to ten points in a horrendous loss or something. He isn’t completely shut out with nothing to show for it other than a couple dropped passes.

The bright side of this current dynamic is the plethora of available dark horse wide outs that will put up big games. Take my team for example. I lost my first four weeks, but have won my last four with big performances from Vincent Jackson, Donnie Avery and Muhsin Muhammad because they had those aberration weeks in which they got in the end zone, or capitalized on a team double teaming the lead wide out or loading up on the run. These three are making it look like I never drafted Braylon Edwards or Marques Colston in the 2nd and 4th rounds.

But on a week to week basis, who can account for that? I am starting Donnie Avery this week against the Cardinals. Now, I can’t rightfully bitch if he is completely shut out of the game. After all, he is Donnie Avery. No one off of Houston’s campus had any idea who the guy was a year ago. On the other hand, he has scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks on plays for 40 yards or more and I need a receiver with two receivers on bye weeks. How do I not put him in the starting roster?

Now part of my argument about running backs still stands: they are expendable because of frequent injury and unreliability. This season alone I’ve won weeks with Dominick Rhodes and Corell Buckhalter going for over 20 points. But the unreliability of receivers is different. They do not sustain injuries with the same frequency, but as explained above, their weeks are so inconsistent. How many weeks does Donnie Avery have to out score Torry Holt for this to be obvious?

If you are looking for a running back to compare all receivers to, then they are all basically LenDale White. White needs those goal line carries to make his week look respectable, just like every receiver needs those two or three freak plays to make their fantasy week worthwhile. It isn’t to the exact same extent, but that is the best comparison I can come up with. And any receiver can come out of nowhere to make every fantasy owner look like an asshole, because every quarterback in the league simply wants to move the ball downfield.

Basically, if you have a durable running back that isn’t giving up more than 30% of his team’s carries, that is probably your safest fantasy bet. But too many of them split carries 60-40 and too many receivers are used as decoys as often as they are actually thrown to. This makes the entire concept of applying strategy to fantasy football a fucking sham. And why we have preferred fantasy basketball for the past two years (despite finishing in the money in football).

In short, we’re all fucked. Your fucked. I’m fucked. Some guy’s girlfriend is going to end up winning your league because she drafted a dozen guys she thinks are bangable or some other cliched reason that you use to not give her any credit (whether she deserves any or not). If you are seeking out advice, I think your best option is to find about five different sources, then go with the median of what is advised and then throw caution to the wind. That’s probably the best advice you will hear all season.

Well, another Sunday has passed. And one less ungodly horrible week of fantasy football has gone with it. We consider this a good thing, since our fantasy team is about as intimidating as the Lions at this point. But hey, we have four players going in tonights game and our opponent has three, which has to be some sort of record for pivotal players in a Monday nighter.

There wasn’t too much out of the ordinary that happened in week eight. The Bengals have solidified themselves as the worst team in the league, being on the receiving end of a 35-6 drubbing from the Texans, who could actually make a minor run here after a tough 0-4 start. When all is said and done, Andre Johnson just might end up with the best fantasy season of any receiver out there. On the other end of the spectrum unless you have TJ Houshmenzadeh you might want to dump or attempt to trade any and all Bengals with the news that Carson Palmer is out for the season. We suspect he won’t be in Cincinnati much longer.

If you're a Texans fan, here is yet another reason to smile.

Philadelphia came out of the bye week with a convincing 27-14 win over the Falcons, who no one seems to have beaten convincingly yet. Westbrook, much like Johnson, could prove to end up being the best player at his respective position by season’s end. Two touchdowns and 187 yards can make up for a few missed games here and there.

Carolina and Arizona played in a smorgasboard of fantasy production as Fitzgerald, Breaston and Boldin all put up big games (Boldin had the biggest with two trips to the end zone), countering my assumption that if Boldin came back you should bench the Michigan upstart. On the other side of the ball, DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith consolidated all the fantasy production for themselves, leaving my two players on the team (Jonathan Stewart & Muhsin Muhammad) in the lurch. We benched them, but they still might have had better games than at least a couple players we started.

Marques Colston continues to grate as a fantasy pick, as his team dropped 37 points on the suddenly lowly Chargers, and he only managed two catches for 56 yards. That is without Reggie Bush in the rotation, by the way. Can anyone justify starting him in week nine? In spite of my own advice, I started him over Donnie Avery and it cost me about twenty fantasy points, despite his team putting up a season high result on the scoreboard. We knew this would happen, but we are just having a difficult time cutting that cord.

And finally, in the game of the week, we saw what is likely a Superbowl preview in the Giants-Steelers game. The game was a hard fought, hard hitting grind that took well over three and a half hours to play (damn near two hours for the first half), and if you had any fantasy players that weren’t Kevin Boss, Nate Washington or Mewelde Moore in your starting roster, then you have our condolences. Even Brandon Jacobs manage to lay an egg in this one. Given his size, that is not something you would expect as the trend tends to be, the bigger the running back the more likely he is to be consistent.

But that has been the running theme of this fantasy and NFL season. Expect the unexpected. Even eight weeks in we still are lacking have a solid grasp on which teams will actually contend for the Superbowl from the NFC (Still everyone in the East, Tampa, Carolina, New Orleans and potentially Green Bay or Chicago). The AFC is a little clearer but you can only speak with so much certainty about any of these scenarios. Right now it looks like Tennessee or Pittsburgh would be the two favored candidates. But it really isn’t going to surprise me if Indy, Baltimore or even Cleveland or Buffalo catches fire and makes a run at it.

The fantasy season is even more unpredictable, as there is no accounting for Lance Moore to regularly trump Marques Colston in production, or for Leonard Weaver to have two touchdowns against the Niners. Do you even know who Leonard Weaver plays for? For the uninitiated, it’s Seattle. If you knew who he is, do you know where he went to college? Neither did I, but I looked it up and it is some place called Carson Newman, which sounds like something he could have founded himself to play college football.

Whatever Carson Newman is, it is working out for him. We watched Invincible for the first time over the weekend, and while it was a standard rags to riches, obscurity to stardom studio sports film, it was one of the better ones. This seemed rather apropos of what we are seeing this season. Players are faster, stronger and more competitive than ever before, especially dating back to the Vince Papale era. But with the way the ball is spread around and the lack of concern players seem to have with the amount of touches they see in any given week (everyone except Terrell Owens, at least), Vince Papale could be a pretty common tale if NFL teams were to hold open tryouts.

Back later with what we learned from all of this.

I do not mean to brag, but typically I do not find myself in this position. What position is that? Hoping NFL players have their season and potentially career ruined by non-life threatening injury so I have a glimmer of hope to claw back into the rat race that is my fantasy league. For the past three years I have sat comfortably in one of the top two positions hoping to fend everyone off and hold steady in one of the two money spots. This year I am looking at my roster, looking at my opponents roster, and concluding that the only plausible way I can sneak out a win is if one my opponent’s players beats his wife or something and is denied bail. It’s like rooting for further economic decay so you’re bank account looks bigger by comparison: Feeble, petty, and might actually affect you adversely at some point but not in the short term, so why not aspire to see the extremely limited improved status?

This is the desperation of a bottom feeding fantasy football participant, something I haven’t felt since my inaugural year in 2004. It is a miserable feeling given the powerlessness of it, especially when the limited hope you have for your fantasy team actually dwarfs that which you have for your actual team (Eagles). Under normal circumstances, the NFL season would be over for me and I would be writing this blog as a formality instead of a hobby.

Nope, not even this is making it seem any more logical to be and Eagles fan.

But, as we’ve mentioned a number of times, the parity that exists in the NFL has infiltrated our fantasy teams and leagues. And that alone has kept my season alive. Right now I am 2-4, and there are three teams at the top of the standings that sit at 4-2. In short, I am only two games out of the lead with a roster that is starting to come together. Colston should be back this week, Edwards and Manning seem to have turned the corner after their week’s against the Giants & Ravens, and I have a bevy of second string guys who have been getting ample playing time due to injury (Correll Buckhalter & Dominick Rhodes, most notably).

This week, however, I am facing the kid who has unequivocally the best team in our league (and he fucking autopicked!). Currently he is sporting Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, Jay Cutler. Chris Cooley, Greg Jennings, Steve Smith & Bernard Berrian in his starting roster, and despite my two game winning streak (which isn’t even technically a streak), I pretty much need Steve Smith or Clinton Portis to spontaneously come up with one of their classic nagging injuries to sneak out of this week with a win. That is too many potential 20+ point performances on one roster for me to have Muhsin Muhammad in my starting roster and expect to win.

Never the less, with the ball being spread around as much as it currently is on seemingly every team, I just need a diamond in the ruff this week to come through with a victory. The Redskins are playing the Browns, but they played the Rams last week and everyone laid an egg. Who’s to say the same thing won’t happen this week? This is the new face of fantasy football, and I am now at the point where I won’t be happy until I can form a league that is so focused on absolute equality that every team finishes 7-7, and the standings and teams eliminated from the playoffs is determined by total points.

This is my new goal. Because the very notion that my fantasy team is still alive after failing to break 80 points in three of the first four weeks (when the average 114.59) is so absurd it means that this goal is actually tangible.

Back later with something.

So someone sent me an email cursing me for my incorrect fantasy predictions from week to week and the fact that I seldom address when I am wrong but am quick to highlight when I am right. Well, this post is dedicated to our number one fan. We’ll try to make it a running feature just for his delicate sensibilities, because obviously our speculation is so utterly damaging to the fantasy lexicon.

This? Is not us.

I thought in most of my posts it was clear that I was either being facetious or self-deprecating for the sake of humor. Because why in the hell would anyone take something as random and incontrollable as fantasy football seriously? Like when I suggested Braylon Edwards would continue his dismal season against the Giants yesterday. He was obviously capable of it, but teams always perform better coming off the bye-week and it certainly wasn’t a surprise that he ended up torching the Superbowl champions. Just look at the Rams (beat the red hot 4-1 Redskins, despite how much of a paper tiger they may be) and the Jets, both walk away with convincing wins after having a week off. It is no surprise that Cleveland pulled off the upset. Naturally, this isn’t true for every team, and that’s when you see the Raiders lose 34-3.

Maybe I should have addressed this specifically and in greater detail yesterday, but I feel like I’ve written enough about the random state of the NFL. Parity rules the day and even the teams considered god awful will pull an unexpected win out of their ass here and there. Look at the Panthers-Buccaneers game. Two seemingly evenly matched division rivals playing an important game that is pivotal to the playoff race. But, one team has superior coaching, doesn’t turn the ball over and then it is settled: Carolina wins by 24 points. The Matrix is easier to figure out than the league.

What was surprising, however, was the magnitude of the upset. We suspect it was some hybrid of coming off the bye week, being at home, the Giants being over confident after sky rocketing to the top of everyone’s power rankings and the fact they actually played in the regular season. We hinted that the latter might factor in, but never to the degree that it did. And for that, I am an asshole.

Well, based on our other prognostications, here are all the other reasons to disown us.

In short, this entire list. We aren’t going to go back through one-by-one and list everything that went wrong, but lets just say that our advice on who to potentially start in a deep league is often based on match-ups. And when the Redskins lose to the worst team in the league, the Vikings barely fend-off Detroit, the Ravens only muster three points against what has been one of the worst defenses in the league, Fred Taylor suffers a concussion and the Packers have made the decision to never run the ball into the end zone ever again; our recommendations are going to take a hit.

In recent weeks we have gone either two or three of five with our suggestions, and this was an exceptionally bad week because the games dictated we go out on a limb. For that, we apologize. For actually taking our advice, you’re probably kind of an idiot, and that’s your problem.

So I hope you’re happy now, semi-anonymous email sender. Here I am, thinking I’m writing inconsequential drivel about fantasy football and the NFL, low and behold someone is actually taking this seriously. Let us know what else is keeping you up at night and we’ll try to address that as well.

A few random observations from yesterday.

So I guess I’m the asshole for running four wide receivers instead of three running backs when I had Corell Buckhalter on my squad and benched him in favor of (gulp) Bobby Engram. I didn’t get word that Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t playing until just about their kickoff, and wasn’t anywhere near a computer when I did. All I have to say is, and I can’t stress this enough: Fuck the fucking Seahawks. It might not be the most eloquent thing I’ve ever tried to convey, but I think it gets the point across. Fuck ‘em in their wannabe Arena league jerseys with a jackhammer.

Not only did I play him over Buckhalter, but I played him over a more viable option at receiver in Vincent Jackson, who finally managed to live up to his hype dating back to the beginning of the 2007 season. In retrospect these particular occurrences don’t qualify as simply bad luck, but rather bold and unapologetic idiocy. The Eagles were playing the still lowly 49ers, and even if Hasselbeck was healthy they still had to contend with the vaunted Packers defense.

Now I will play him next week and he will lay a rotten egg for me. It is irrefutable that whatever move I make it will undoubtedly be incorrect. Still, I pulled out the victory and have Braylon Edwards going tonight, who is good for at least three catches for 20 yards. Wait, their playing the Giants? Make that three catches for 7 yards.

Also, I don’t know what your waiver wire or free agency situation is, but if my league is any indication then the herd is starting to thin. As of today we only had three guys in our free agency break 20 points with Patrick Cobbs (whatever, a third string running back that had a career day). Matt Schaub (he had to in order to keep his job) and Chad Pennington (efficient but hardly reliable for fantasy purposes). Hopefully you have all your chips in order and you avoid injury from here on out, because it is about to get really scarce on the open market.

If you were wondering who the hell Patrick Cobbs is, we thought this might enlighten you as to why you don't in the first place.

One thing you might notice about these three (other than that two of them are quarterbacks thus rendered useless for most of us), is that they all played in the same game. So if you are ever in a bind as to which player on your roster you should start, and one of your players has the Dolphins or Texans on the schedule, then I think your decision has already been made for you.

One other quick piece of advice: We don’t know the nature of Joseph Addai’s injury, nor do we think Dominick Rhodes is even near the same stratosphere as him. But if you haven’t cut the worst player on your roster for Rhodes just as a precautionary measure, then we suggest you do so and do so now. If Corell Buckhalter can rip of damn near 30 points for the Eagles, we imagine Rhodes is capable of doing something similar for the Colts.

And finally, if you have an open roster spot for whatever reason and still need a player out of tonight’s game, pick up Derrick Ward or Ahmad Bradshaw tonight. When Cleveland’s defense lays down halfway through the second quarter you won’t regret it. Also, I know it was a preseason game, but the drubbing was so exceptional that it should be indicative of what we see tonight. Unless Tom Coughlin does nothing to change up their game plan and Crenell is able to counter it, which is all a distinct possibility. We will say this, if you happened to get the Giants at 20/1 to repeat as Superbowl champs this past March, then you are probably feeling rather lucid at the moment. With or without Braylon Edwards on your fantasy team.

Back with something later.

With the fifth week of the NFL season quickly approaching, it is important to have a gauge on who is expected to perform and who isn’t. Like me, for instance, do I play Muhsin Muhammad coming off a strong week and going up against the Chiefs? Or do I use the law of averages and give Vincent Jackson the go ahead, who’s facing an even weaker defense in Miami? To most people the answer is easy, but most people aren’t in the business of sabotaging their own team like I apparently am this season.

This, my friends, is the epitome of being on tilt in fantasy football. I know whichever move I make it is going to fuck me raw, and will somehow end up resulting in extra points for my opponent. I can’t really explain why this is, but in a season in which there is seldom any clear cut answers, guessing right is of the utmost importance. I mean, that isn’t to say that picking the optimal lineup in years past hasn’t been daunting, but the high and low of putting in the wrong player is dismal in 2008.

To give you an idea of how close things are, Brett Favre, after having an okay first three weeks (16, 22 & 11 fantasy points), is now sixth in overall scoring after one (albeit tremendous) game in week four in which he produced 36 fantasy points…There are supposed to be players who have performed consistently enough that he doesn’t eclipse half the league in total scoring after just one week.

So here are five players to avoid despite recent success. We know this is getting somewhat repetitive, but we have to post at least once every morning and there really isn’t much to say about fantasy football five days removed from the last week of play.

1) Santana Moss
I can’t believe this bullshit, but right now he is the second highest rated receiver on Yahoo behind Anquan Boldin. With that in mind, he is playing the Eagles this week who probably have one of the better secondaries in the league and a younger, better model of Moss in DeSean Jackson, so they have experience practicing against this prototype of receiver. Expect the Eagles to lock Santana down, or as much as anyone has all season. Where the fuck were you last season when I drafted you in the sixth round? Shithead.

Yeah, you're having a great season to date, but can you play the guitar, Santana....Moss?

2) Reggie Bush
He could still have a good game and his presence on this list would be warranted. We were a bit mislead when we described his performance this season as “every other game“. because right now he is second in scoring behind Jay Cutler. Still, they are playing Minnesota this week and while their defense has underperformed from a fantasy perspective, one thing they do is over-pursue the backfield, which means those swing passes are likely to be stopped before they even begin.

3) Eddie Royal
Currently 25th in overall scoring but that was almost due solely to the fact that Brandon Marshall was absent for that week one drubbing of Oakland. Denver is playing Tampa who looked deftly strong against Green Bay last week outside of a couple long touchdowns to Greg Jennings. Expect the young, unexpected rookie to be brought back down to earth.

4) Chris Johnson
This is the season of the rookie running back. Right now we have Matt Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall (before his injury) and Chris Johnson all starting or getting ample playing time this season. The latter of which has been highly impressive. Unlike Forte, Johnson is still splitting carries with another running back(LenDale White, who is quickly becoming obsolete) and is making the most out of his relatively limited touches. We know Jeff Fisher is one of the better schematic coaches in the league, but Baltimore has a rejuvenated defense that is looking to clock some fucking heads after blowing that game against Pittsburgh on Monday. Look for Johnson to have one of his few bad games all season this week.

5) Michael Turner
Not only is this the season of rookie running backs, it is also the season of running backs who were supposed to be below-average to average that turned into pro-bowlers. Such is the case with Michael Turner, who is currently leading the league in rushing yards. Well, the days of playing St. Louis and Detroit are over. Expect his midget ass to be swallowed whole by the Green Bay front seven on Sunday.

This is highly negative, we’ll try to post five to start later.

We tuned into this week of NFL being pretty much fully prepared for anything, and given how our luck has been of late, the only thing that was going to surprise us is if our team actually pulled out a victory in fantasy.

And, needless to say, that didn’t happen. Never the less, essentially everything out of the ordinary happened but no one was phased by it. In contrast, if every week in the NBA you had backup players racking up monster games and winning weeks for people, it would damn near cause a full scale riot. But expressing such vitriol over the unexpected in the NFL is redundant, because everything and nothing can potentially happen.

This guy, unlike Lance Moore, could never be the determining factor in a fantasy week.

Take the New Orleans Saints for example. They are without their number one receiver (Marques Colston) and their star tight end (Shockey), and have three pass catching receivers to pick up off free agency in most fantasy leagues: Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem & Lance Moore. Now, Henderson usually sees more action with Shockey and Colston active than the other two options. So it makes perfectly logical sense to acquire him over Meachem and Moore. And what happens? Moore catches two touchdowns, Meachem collects one, and Henderson walks away from the game with one catch for 81 yards and somehow not a score.

I was watching the game with the guy who picked up Henderson and he was sulking about it, but this is his first year of fantasy football and he didn’t understand that this is the innate and explainable randomness of fantasy football. Random because there is so much capable talent in the NFL, that there are usually a myriad of options on any team alone that can effectively replace whoever is on your roster, and explainable because the abject goal of an NFL team is to win at whatever costs. Bitching about this is like complaining about the weatherman being inaccurate: Shit happens.

If you think about how the NFL is designed and what qualifies someone as a “star”, there are probably about fifteen guys are receiver who fit that mold, another fifteen at running back, maybe seven or eight quarterbacks and three or four tight ends. These are the guys you are guaranteed to get fifteen or more points out of every week (and our numbers are being generous). After that it is a total crap shoot. Devery Henderson, I am afraid to say, falls into that crap shoot.

Yet for whatever reason, me, you and a growing number of participants continue to throw permeable amounts of money into what is basically a roulette wheel that spins for four months. And I am quickly finding out this year, that if you put money on red and that ball is only touching black squares, it grows less and less enjoyable each week.

Back with surprise performances later today.