Fantasy Football

We often lament how difficult and pointless it is to keep a fantasy football website updated from the months of February to…July, we’ll say. But perhaps we shouldn’t complain so much, since Matthew Berry took the time to compile a top 200 fantasy list for ESPN. Of course, I probably wouldn’t complain if I was making more than a 1,000th of what Berry does, but that’s besides the point. I suppose there is a market for some of this so we might as well jump on the bandwagon, we’re going to give you five reasons Matthew Barry’s list is misguided. And none of these reasons will be, “he was too lazy to number his top 200″.

1) Knowshon Moreno is his top rated rookie.

He actually makes a big deal out of this, as it’s the headline atop the window in Firefox, but it’s just patently false and wreaks of standard NFL short-sightedness and blatant ignorance of college football (it’s so peddling to the meat head conglomerate that makes up a decent majority of the NFL fan base). Just in terms of running backs, Chris Wells and (if Joesph Addai doesn’t return from surgery in time) Donald Brown will be infinitely more valuable than Moreno, who’s going to slip into virtual anonymity playing in Denver, the leading contender right now to replicate the 2008 Lions.

Actually, you might hear about Moreno, but it won’t be in a positive light. It will be something like, “Knowshon Moreno, rookie running back for the Denver Broncos, tore every ligament in his body playing in San Diego today. Yes, once the Chargers realized that the Broncos run blocking is a shell of its former self and that they don’t have a passing game to keep defenses honest, Shawne Merriman tackled the once promising Georgia alum seven yards deep in the backfield”. I’m not even going to bother getting into the receivers that could be better fantasy options.

2) Michael Turner is his highest rated player.

He also makes a point of patting himself on the back for rating Adrian Peterson #2, which you can definitely make an argument for, but not in favor of Turner. For starters, Turner is sacrificing carries to Norwood still, they’re inevitably going to have a more difficult schedule (which means tougher defenses than last season), Turner is small, vulnerable to injury and has only carried a backfield for one season. That’s usually enough to label you enough of a risk to drop you a bit in rankings. He should have a great season, but there are better surefire bets out there (Matt Forte, Jones-Drew come to mind).

3) Thomas Jones cracked his top 15.

Say what you will about Brett Favre, his presence alone made the running game respectable in New York. Don’t believe me because it’s in vogue to discredit Brett Favre (which I’ve made a hobby of doing since 2001)? Look at Thomas Jones’ numbers from 2007 to 2008, most notably the touchdown totals (from two to fifteen). I wouldn’t expect a drop-off of such an absurd degree, if for no other reason than the offensive line is just so much improved since the 2007 campaign. But if you think Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens is demanding the same attention from defenses as Favre, then you’re probably a Jets fan. Oh, and they used their second pick in the draft on a running back (Shonn Greene out of Iowa).

4) LaDanian Tomlinson cracks the top ten.

Why does this seem like it’s done out of nostalgia? How many more disappointing seasons will Tomlinson need to have before he’s assessed properly? I hate to sound cynical, but at some point we’re going to be forced into realizing that in today’s NFL, a running back’s usefulness to his franchise has a five year shelf-life, anything more than that and you’re playing with house money. I’m giving it a 65% chance that Sproles accumulates more yards than Tomlinson.

5) Running backs solely occupy the top thirteen.

We harped on this yesterday, but more to the point: these guys are durable but injury prone. Meaning, they could miss half a season and come back almost to where he was when he left, but he still misses those eight games. It’s not an slight against the plethora of people occupying the position, but rather just the nature of it. I know it sounds crazy, but six foot, 200 pound men repeatedly colliding into 6′3, 270 pound men, can be kind of hazardous for the former.

With that in mind, and given the inherent unpredictability of the NFL, are we that certain that Stephen Jackson or Clinton Portis or Steve Slaton are going to have better fantasy seasons than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson? I wouldn’t complain because sure, you can make that argument. But it doesn’t seem like the counter-argument is ever taken into consideration.

Anyhow, I could go on dissecting this thing. Nitpicking every single perceived liberty Matthew Berry took with his rankings, but that would be too monotonous for an already monotony-laden post. We’ll stop here and leave you to make your own interpretations.

Outside of explaining what each symbol indicates and how we’re tallying these up, I think we’re going to skip the preambles tonight. Oh, and Tom Brady threw a football again today, which managed to be the headliner for the NFL over at the Worldwide Leader. Just thought we’d toss that out there if you were wondering why we’re posting about basketball for the third straight day. If you require an explanation for such drastic actions, please go here for it.

The grades for officiating are labeled as such:

Great non-calls (A foul would generally be called in the situation but the referee caught the lack of contact): 00
Legitimate calls/good non-calls (Exactly what it sounds like): 0
Questionable calls (Calls that an argument could be made either way for but looked suspicious): /
Atrocious calls (fouls and called penalties that had no business being made): X
When the time on the call is bold and italicized, it means the call was obvious. We don’t want to give them too much credit for what should be routine.

Again, if you’re wondering what the strands of numbers at the end of each quarter mean, see if this makes any sense (the parentheses only apply to the second and third quarters):

Great non-calls (total for game)-Legitimate calls, those that were impossible for the official to botch (totals for both in parentheses)-Questionable calls (total in parentheses)-Atrocious calls (total in parentheses).

1st Quarter

9:44- Cleveland is called for a touch foul on Howard in the paint, he converts the three point-play. I’m not sure who touched him or who they called the foul on though. /

9:22- West called for tripping Courtney Lee. Looks reasonable. 0

9:00- Lewis gets called for grazing LeBron’s arm on a put back off a missed Varejao layup. There was contact, but it was about a second after LeBron tipped it back in. X

8:49- Dwight Howard called for a travel and he indeed took an extra step, but it looked like he might have traveled because he was hacked by Illgauskas (why would Howard have to travel on Illgauskas otherwise?). Still, we had no angle on any contact so we can’t rule on a potential foul either way. 0

7:09- A foul is called on Mo Williams when he isn’t within three feet of the play or any Orlando Magic players. Your guess is as good as mine. X

6:59- It looks like LeBron is hacked going to the rim, can’t really tell because they use that floating camera from the rafters to give us this particular play. 0

6:01- Illgauskas and Varejao tag-team Howard, like they need too. On the same play, Miller and Albert suggest that Illgauskas could have been called for a technical after he walks towards Howard in the least threatening way possible. He literally looks like he’s about to ask for directions, but not pull a knife on him.0

3:29- Mark Davis calls an off-the-ball foul three seconds too late for having the gall to touch Dwight Howard. I like how neither network will replay these calls, we just have to take them at their word, even though everyone was literally just standing around and the whistle blew. X

3:12- Pietrus reaches in to poke the ball away from leBron and is successful, but the official calls body, something we can’t attest to either way given (again) the camera angle. /

2:28- West is called for a travel after picking up his dribble too early going baseline. 0

2:20- Mo Williams is called for bumping Anthony Johnson, AKA Day Day from The Wire. It looked like bullshit but if anything else, we know it wasn’t a star call. Anthony Johnson probably hasn’t gotten preferential treatment since high school. /

1:47- The ref bought that Boobie Gibson sent Rashard Lewis’ tall ass flying to the hardwood (that wasn’t intentional but we’re not changing it). /

1:21- Ben Wallace, as evidenced by the second half of game four, is one of the better defenders on Dwight Howard and forces a jump ball with him. Amazingly there isn’t a foul call. 0

1:05- Good no call amidst much contact between Howard, Szczberiak and Wallace on a Pietrus three. 0

:58.3- Pietrus is called for foul while trying to defend him going through the lane on a pick. It was on the opposite side of the court and behind a couple people. You’ll never guess it but we didn’t get a replay. /

0-7, 3-5-3

Note: If the game keeps up at this pace we may have called it quits early, but since we watched games 1, 2 and 4 in their totality, I don’t think we can make those proclamations.

2nd Quarter

11:37- Dwight Howard shoves LeBron in the back for an offensive rebound (which we’ve always considered one of the dirtier fouls in basketball, because there is no way to counter it), Wally is called for a technical foul after pretend pushing Howard in the back. Apparently he feels the same way about the push in the back foul that we do, because there is no other explanation for his reation. That’s par for the course in these playoffs. So we’ll mark both of them as applicable. 0 0

10:17- Pietrus is called for his third foul, all of which have been on LeBron. He might as well call it a night with the way they’re calling him. Between him tonight, Nene last night and Varejao the night before, I think the officials are more likely to start another melee than they are to stop one./

9:43- Dwight Howard is hacked by Illgauskas on a three point-play. 0

9:33- Dwight Howard is called for his second foul when LeBron decides now is a good time to draw a foul from Howard and starts to plow into him, realizes Howard is basically the only person in the league stronger than he is. /

9:21- Gortat is fouled driving on a pick and roll.0

9:03- Good no call on a LeBron bank shot. We imagine any decisive no calls will fall in Cleveland’s favor tonight. 0

8:34- Courtney Lee is leveled by Illgauskas on a fast break, it looks a lot worse than it is because of the size discrepancy. You can tell Cleveland is a football town because the entire crowd “oooh’s” like they just watched a safety drill a receiver going across the middle. They haven’t seen such a play in twenty years so you can imagine their excitement. 0

7:51- Mo Williams is called for grazing the top of Rashard Lewis’ head on a fast break. X

7:34- Karma’s a bitch when Lewis is called for trying to run his forearm into Illgauskas chest too…create space, maybe? I have no idea but the way these games are officiated he had to have known what was coming. 0

7:00- West gets a continuation call that is so egregious everyone stopped defending him since it was called a decade before he released the shot. X

6:04- Van Gundy is livid about a no-call when Turkoglu drives to the hoop and the ball is batted away by Varejao after he spends around West. The good news is we actually got a replay and it looked clean from mine eyes. We might be biased though since we really don’t want this series to end. Gundy gets a technical for his best Bill Cowher impression. 0

5:38- Varejao is called for grabbing Howard in the paint on a rebound attempt. 0

5:19- Howard called for the goal-tend, which I’d be willing to bet he also led the league in. 0

3:26- Hand check call on Illgauskas when he’s guarding Howard in the paint. This is easily the most ineffectual hand-check in this insipid rule’s history, but it’s still a foul. 0

2:18- Howard goes up for a bucket, misses it and claims he is fouled, a teammate gets the offensive rebound and someone fires up a three while he is still complaining yet he still pulls down the second offensive board on the same possession and is immediately banged on by Illgauskas. The refs give him enough time to put a shot up so he can earn the and-1. 0

2:08- Alston called for a touch foul when Williams drives to the left, we can’t speak on it since Williams is between the camera and Alston. /

:45- Turkoglu is called for a foul on a LeBron drive, Albert tells us he was pushed but we can’t tell either way. Looked suspicious to us and we don’t trust Albert not to protect the label. /

0-12,6(19,9)-2(7)-4(7)

We don’t really track the game in these things because it would require too much rewinding/pausing/fast-forwarding to follow the officiating and the game. Either we’re not cut out for this or we’re not being paid enough. But it’s a two point game at half.

3rd Quarter

9:47- Good no call when LeBron bitches about being fouled and any contact was minimal. I imagine if Orlando hadn’t sucked the life out of this crowd he would have gotten that call. 0

7:50- Alston called for the clear path foul and we’re kind of on the fence on this rule. Based on the merits of this rule it was a terrible call (as Reggie Miller so succinctly explains), but it doesn’t really matter because the rule is shit, anyways. X

6:51- Alston called for reaching in on an Illgauskas drive (seriously) which he converts into a three point-play. He definitely reached but even with the replay we can’t tell if he actually touches him. We’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. 0

6:07- Lewis called for a foul when Illgauskas pushes off of him in the post. X

5:38- Howard called for travel. 0

5:16- James fouled on fast-break by Turkoglu. 0

4:25- Foul called on Varejao and it’s legitimate, but the whistle is blown before they make contact. I guess Varejao had a look in his eyes. 0

4:11- Illgauskas cops a feel off Howard’s entire right arm. Between this and the premature foul call on Varejao I think the Cavs are putting vodka in those little Gatorade cups. 0

3:30- Lewis catches an interior pass from Howard, holds it for a second before the ball goes flying out of bounds when a couple defenders rush over and they call it out on Orlando. /

3:02- Illgauskas draws a foul on Howard, giving Howard three for the night. 0

2:08- Varejao flops when defending Howard, the crowd buys it but the officials don’t because he does it at least twice a game. 0

1:58- Varejao draws an and-1 off a foul from Howard, we never get a replay on it but from afar there isn’t much arguing to be had. 0

1:45- Turkoglu gets Varejao (this is exhausting, I feel like I’m talking about Lord of The Rings characters) off the ground, but doesn’t have to jump into him, because jumping straight into the air is a foreign concept to Varejao. 0

1:25- Szczerbiak is called for a non-shooting foul on Lewis because he has no business ever playing in this game so long as Joe Smith is available, and he knows it (I mean Szczerbiak, but Smith is probably well aware of this too). 0

0-11,6(30,15)-1(8)-2(9)

4th Quarter

11:16- Anthony Johnson is cleanly blocked by Boobie Gibson, which he’ll never hear the end of. 0

10:45- LeBron is called for a blocking foul on…Michel Pietrus? And it looked clean? We’re still in “The Q”, right? /

10:32- Turkoglu is called for a foul trying to steal the ball from Wallace like he’s his younger brother and he’s ten year’s old. 0

9:50- Gortat jumps on LeBron’s back after an offensive rebound like he was expecting LeBron to put him on his shoulders. 0

7:44- The refs refrain from blowing the whistle on a LeBron drive in which he stumbles back after his missed shot. 0

7:36- Illgauskas fouls Howard. 0

7:14- Pietrus is called for his fourth foul, all four on LeBron. At this point I’m pretty sure everyone whose played more than twenty minutes has four fouls.0

6:58- Illgauskas is called for lightly shoving Howard. The crowd doesn’t like it, Miller defends it, I will say that in this climate it is obviously going to be called, but it really had no effect on the play. 0

6:00- James is fouled by Howard on a three point-play. 0

4:46- West is called for a foul on a three point “attempt” by Turkoglu. The reason for the quotations is Turkoglu had no intention of going into a shooting motion until West tried to put a vulcan death grip on Hedo’s member. Has to be called but I don’t like calling it a shooting foul, regardless of the blatant disregard for personal space. /

2:22- LeBron forces three point-play when Howard slides in a millisecond too late to draw the charge. If the Cavs blow this nine point lead I’m going back to my default position of disregarding all Cleveland sports. 0

2:08- Varejao called for a blocking foul on a Pietrus three point-play. Crowd doesn’t like it (though they seem oftentimes confused), but that’s only because it was so unorthodox with Pietrus driving west to east instead of north to south. 0

1:07- Ugh, the game’s already over but Gortat is called for a downey soft foul on a Varejao three point-play. Do you know how to tell it’s soft and probably ill-advised? Varejao just converted a three point-play. X

1:07- Discontent to let this half go by relatively fairly officiated, the refs make a colossally terrible foul call on Wally before the ball is thrown in-bounds. X

1:02- Varejao fouls out on a Rashard Lewis drive. The contact is completely sealed off from the camera by both players but we don’t get a replay. /

1:00- Shit, Orlando isn’t going to go back home gracefully, as Gortat wraps up Illgauskas, who’s probably the best free throw shooting big-man on either side of Houston. 0

:46.8- Illgauskas fouls out while contesting a jump shot from Turkoglu for god knows what reason. 0

:41.7- Mo Williams is intentionally fouled.0

:28.8- Williams is intentionally fouled again. Why are the Magic doing this? Because Reggie Miller is calling the game? 0

0-14,8-3-2

0-30,15-8-9

Final Tallies:

Great non-calls: 0

Legitimate calls/good non-calls: 44 (23 of which were obvious)

Questionable calls: 11

Atrocious calls: 11

Alright, of the three games we watched this is the best we’ve seen so far, and there was still a tinge of favoritism shown towards the home team. But by and large, if you just look at the percentages only 1/6 of the officials decisions we’re face-meltingly bad, and another six we regarded as highly debatable, relegating any favoritism to marginal at best. Yes, Howard and Turkoglu both fouled out, but so did Varejao. There was only a seven shot gap in free throw shooting which actually favored the Magic (41-34). From what we saw tonight and the past two, the people that tend to benefit from official interference are marketable players that illicit strong reactions from home fans and (depending on how transcendent the player), occasionally a player like LeBron James can benefit from fans inadvertently getting him a couple calls.

All in all, this results in a relatively fairly matched game with a slight edge to the more valuable players and too many calls on soft/non-existent fouls. Again, this is all op-ed but I don’t really have a horse in this race (I’m from Ohio but any connection I might have with the Cavs is strictly platonic, they could move to Zurich for all I care), so I’d like to think that I’m being as objective as possible. Though like I said before, I don’t want these series’ to end. I need a surplus of NBA coverage before we go on hiatus and I have to wait out two months of non-stop baseball coverage.

Back next week, hopefully with something football related.

We got started late but since this is a Lakers game we didn’t miss much early. For what we did miss, we apologize. It will never happen again. We’re not going to go into some tortured preamble again about why we’re doing this. If you do want to read the explanation for why we’re writing about the NBA on a NFL fantasy blog, go here. Or just roll with it. I recommend rolling with it, the only thing more obnoxious than unnecessary open tabs is meaningless explanations for writing blog posts no one really reads.

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Given the unbelievable heap of garbage that is NFL news today, we’re going to do something slightly different and modify the site for at least today, if not the rest of the week. And when I say modify, I mean write about an entirely different sport. I guess our dark secret (as it pertains to this site at least) is that we probably prefer the NBA to the NFL. The NBA is much more laid back, enjoyable league that isn’t nearly as cantankerous as the NFL has grown to be in recent years. And with all the talk of how LeBron would fair in the NFL draft and the league itself, we figured we’d switch sports for a couple days.

That said, the issue of officiating has grown increasingly divisive. Some claim conspiracy theories (certain players and teams being favored), others incompetence (the majority of the referees are bumbling idiots), and some think everyone complaining about the officiating is much ado about nothing (though this seems to be a distinct minority). I fall probably in the middle, but since the ineptitude works both ways any impact is objective. But between Mark Cuban, Tim Donaghy, the 2006 NBA finals and the ever-growing divergence of officiating between the stars and utility players, no one can stand to lose a close game without pinpointing a series of or one specific foul call/no call at a pivotal point in the contest.

So what’s my point? Well, in all our nerd-dom, we decided that actually monitoring a couple of these games and breaking down ho the actual foul calls, penalty calls and missed/impressive non-calls. Overall, the results were about what we expected for an overtime game and while their were numerous eyebrow raises, they stayed pretty consistent. Which I think is what most players and coaches in the league ask for. For each call/non-call we broke them down into the categories with the following symbols:

Great non-calls (A foul would generally be called in the situation but the referee caught the lack of contact): 00
Legitimate calls/good non-calls (Exactly what it sounds like): 0
Questionable calls (Calls that an argument could be made either way for but looked suspicious): /
Atrocious calls (fouls and called penalties that had no business being made): X
When the time on the call is bold and italicized, it means the call was obvious.

Mind you, this is completely subjective and many might have seen things differently (on one call in particular), but this wasn’t exactly Kobe Doin’ Work, we were limited to the camera angles TNT offered us, and the majority of the time these plays were considered innocuous so we seldom got replays. Also, we wrote this while watching the game last night and not only did we not have time for any editing, we didn’t think we’d be posting this anywhere in public, so we apologize for any typos.

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The NFL is currently experiencing one of its more bizarre off-seasons in recent memory, and I for one couldn’t be more thrilled. Sure, we’re in the middle of the NCAA tournament, NBA playoffs are a couple weeks from starting up and (God help me) baseball is a week or two from opening day. But who wants to hear about that nonsense when there’s constant updates of Jay Cutler’s cell phone activity, or if Plaxico Burress can circumvent doing any jail time, or if Dante Stallworth will be charged for drunkenly steamrolling some poor sap in Miami, or who’s being murdered in the condos of Saints players? Jesus, this off-season makes The Sopranos first season feel uneventful.

This is essentially why we do not like the NFL, everyone who supports it is under the impression that everyone is interested in the most loosely related story-lines to the league. And we’re not. If you tell a diehard NFL fan you’re somewhat impartial towards the draft, they look at you like you were riding a Triceratops. Really, guys, it’s not that interesting. I mean, I generally watch it and it can be interesting at times, so at the very least I keep it on in the background. It doesn’t hurt that Goodell shortened the amount of time between first round picks, which is the best decision he’s made since succeeding Taglibue and as fas as we’re concerned, it will end up being his legacy. But I can understand why someone would find it incessantly dull, and why they assume those of us who enjoy it to be borderline sycophantic.

But most sane people enjoy it only on draft day. I can’t really regard anyone as mentally healthy if they enjoy watching and listening to workout analysis in February and March. You’re basically the fan equivalent of a functioning alcoholic if you do. The only way it could be more monotonous and creepy is if they were “evaluating” players coming out of high school instead of college. No, we’ll have something substantive to say when Cutler is eventually traded or what the pending sentences mean for teams in the draft and their current roster. But right now we’re more than happy to wait a couple more weeks before having anything to say about it.

If you want a prediction from us, an unfounded, random and completely speculative prediction about Jay Cutler, we tend to think he is going to end up playing in Detroit, whose going to offer up their first round pick for him. Denver wants a quarterback, reports are the Detroit isn’t exactly elated with the idea of taking Matthew Stafford first overall and no one is going to swap positions with them, so Detroit might as well roll the dice and get a still young quarterback to be their centerpiece.

But again, this isn’t founded on anything more than our understanding of how everything should work, not on how everything necessarily does. I feel like if that trade was ever going to happen it would have happened by now, and we’re never right about these things anyways. So if you don’t mind, we’re going to go back to watching basketball for the next few weeks. Thanks.

So now that the Super Bowl and we stare down a dreadful eight months before the next regular season NFL game, we can finally get to the business of dismantling the two teams who reached the promise land. Historically, the Cardinals and the Steelers have been notoriously…thrifty, shall we say.

Well, that’s not entirely fair and I didn’t mean to relate the Steelers history in any way to that of the Cardinals. We’ll say this, the Cardinals have been cheap (though they opened up the wallet recently) and the Steelers have been savvy and efficient.

Pittsburgh has always prioritized the team when it came to bringing in new players, but rarely over-extend themselves financially so as to keep the team young. The first examples of this I can recall are with Kevin Greene and Rod Woodson, who were integral to their Super Bowl run in 1995 but were cut shortly thereafter. It might seem crass and heartless, but the Steelers have been run like a well-oiled machine because they treat their franchise like they should: a business. They’ve only had three coaches in about forty years and for good reason, They’re patient and they hire the right people. Basically, they were the Patriots before the Patriots. They aren’t going to make any errant moves before next season.

Arizona/Phoenix, on the other hand, has rarely been willing to extend a contract acquire a new free agent or take a risk with a high profile trade, mainly because the Bidwell’s have never wanted to spend any money that would put them in the black. They’ve typically drafted with the intention of drawing fans to the stadium but rarely ever to improve the team.

So now, as both teams come out of the jubilation/funk of Super Bowl 43, it’s time to start assessing how they will approach the 2009 season. And right now, the highest touted commodity that appears to be in limbo is Anquan Boldin. And the two teams vying for his wide receiving capabilities appear to be the Eagles and Giants.

Now let me just provide a couple caveats for what I am about to say. 1) This is all speculation, nothing is founded. It wouldn’t be a proper blog if the status of Boldin with the Cardinals wasn’t just some blurb I heard from John Clayton on Mike and Mike yesterday morning and saw in these two posts. And 2) I am well aware that I’ve been harping on the parity of the NFL for the past four months, so I know full well that predicting a Super Bowl team three days after the season ends is generally a losing proposition.

With that said, if the Giants or Eagles do end up with Anquan Boldin, that is going to be Super Bowl team from the NFC in 2010.

Now usually I would expect the Giants to wrap him up and the Eagles to hope to skate by with DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis. Actually, the Eagles have better receivers than the Giants now, so they could actually use him more and might be willing to overpay him. But the Eagles have two first round draft picks after trading the rights to Jeff Otah to the Panthers during the 2008 draft. So if the Cardinals are looking to build on 2008’s post-season success and feel like they’re sufficient with Breaston & Fitzgerald, they might try to barter for one or both of those picks.

The Eagles would probably go for the former and not the latter, and while I think they have better receivers than the Giants they are still a long way from an elite receiving corps. Sure, Jackson and Curtis are both playmakers to varying degrees, but I don’t think either one of them is over 6′1. A physical presence like Boldin is just what they need to open up the deep passes for DeSean Jackson, because you can’t exactly be throwing jump balls to someone whose basically the Darren Sproles of wide receivers. I’m not even going to bother making the obvious comparisons to Terrell Owens and that they went to the Super Bowl the one year they had him.

The Giants are just in a world of hurt at receiver and are probably willing to max out a contract for him, but what do they have/are they willing to offer the Cardinals for rights to him? I mean, they could mortgage their defense but that seems unwise since it’s been their catalyst for the past two seasons. They could offer up some running backs as they run three deep at the position (Jacobs/Ward/Bradshaw), but does Arizona really need or want another utility running back to split carries with Hightower and Aarington (I’m assuming James is leaving and that the Giants are not giving up Brandon Jacobs)? Do they really think Derrick Ward is that much better than someone they can pick up in the third round of the 2009 draft? (Note: they did sign Edge to that ridiculous contract so they might, hopefully they’ve been Hightower-ed into thinking straight about the running position) The Giants are not trading Manning or any offensive lineman. That leaves two options: draft picks and future draft picks.

This upcoming draft the Giants do not have much to offer in the way of trade bait. A low first round pick than pretty much the same thing everyone else has, so if they want Boldin and the Arizona plays its cards properly, they might be able to get some 2010 picks out of the situation. Neither has been substantiated so we’re not optimistic this will happen.

But we are confident in the prospects of 2009 for either team should they land a top five receiver in the game (After Moss, Fitzgerald & Andre Johnson). Sure this isn’t full proof, both teams would have to stay healthy (Which has been a tall order for the Eagles for every season since 2002), not to mention Steve Spagnuolo is leaving New York for the higher profile pastures of head coaching in St. Louis. There is also reason to suspect that Boldin might not work out for either franchise. Namely, he doesn’t seem comfortable in cold weather (remember that Eagles game on Thanksgiving? He made Braylon Edwards look like Jerry Rice with all of his dropped passes).

But the Giants should still retain their core defensive unit and are not going to completely abandon a system that has been so immensely successful because they lost a coordinator. And while Boldin might now struggle in colder climates, he will also have a chance to adjust to it (something that isn’t likely to happen with someone who grew up and played college ball in Florida and now plays in a fucking desert with housing) and can still contribute until October and in certain road games.

All I know is that I desperately want to see jim in an Eagles jersey. The fantasy/real impact he would have on everyone if he went to Philly (receivers, running backs and quarterback alike) would be almost invaluable. Though I will admit, it’s difficult to bank so much on the health of such an injury prone back field, but I think Boldin has the talent to make even Kevin Kolb look respectable.

So a few follow up comments that seem to be lingering from the Super Bowl. We meant to get to this yesterday, but as we mentioned over at Grid Effect we were at work until 7PM and that means two things: 1) We were actually busy and couldn’t get around to posting anything, and 2) we were too tired when we got back from work to be hassled with it. So, here we are. And its almost good we got the extra day to get a general picture of how everyone is reacting to everything.

For anyone complaining about the lack of a review on Arizona’s final play of the game: There were five seconds left and you had roughly half the field to go. While I think you were robbed of the opportunity for a win and the audience for an even more satisfying conclusion (as it looked like an incomplete pass to me), the refs certainly didn’t steal the game from you. Santonio Holmes and Ben Roethlisberger took the liberty of doing that.

Much like every year in the Super Bowl, there are a plethora of players on the winning team who could be awarded MVP. Harrison took himself out of it with that personal foul on the punt that pinned them even closer to their own end zone, so it was between Roethlisberger and Holmes. Considering Big Ben threw an interception and Holmes was his primary target the entire game (though Heath Miller may have been for the first half), I am content with Holmes being awarded the MVP. As great as Roethlisberger was on that last drive, the degree of difficulty on Holmes’ TD catch warrants the award on its own. Not to mention his cumulative stats (something David Tyree lacked last year and why it was default awarded to Eli Manning).

If you noticed that we haven’t mentioned the commercials and were wondering why, it’s quite simple: We can’t find a lot of humor in people trying to con us into buying their products. Even if we did, the creativity is sorely lacking. Can we get something other than nut shots, attractive women and animals afflicted with sentient problems? If you want me to buy your product and are going to spend millions of dollars throwing together and advertising campaign, it would stand to reason that you would invest more than one work weekend into it.

Also, for at least half of the advertisers I can’t think of a single, solitary reason they have to invest that much money into a series of commercials. Is Budweiser still in such heated competition with anyone that throwing millions of dollars into TV spots is necessary? Same with Career Builder and Monster.com. Not only does their net worth pale in comparison to that of Budweiser, isn’t everyone going to their sites anyways? I know when the economy and American way of life is in peril, I’m supposed to root for commerce, but I would have been perfectly fine with fewer commercials.

And finally, after any entertaining Super Bowl, especially one with a climactic finish, there is a groundswell of people quick to proclaim it the Best. Ever. I suppose if you’re going to have this conversation then it’s definitely a part of it, but on the list of Super Bowls we drummed up that only dated back to Green Bay’s first title in 1996, I’d probably rank it fourth behind last year’s game, the Packers-Broncos in 1997 and the Rams-Titans game in 1999. It’s generous to put it at fourth in front of the first two Patriots titles as well, we’ll call it a dead heap between those three for fourth place.

When you are trying to quantify something like “Greatest Ever” in sports, you have to take everything into consideration: Back story, historical significance, star power, efficiency, execution, entertainment level, etc. And while Sunday’s fourth and second quarters were wildly entertaining, I thought I was staring down the barrel of another Seahawks-Steelers game before Arizona got rolling. The star power was fairly high in this game, but there were eighteen total penalties many of which came during pivotal points of the game (Adrian Wilson running over the place holder, the aforementioned Harrison penalty, pass interference on the Cardinals last touchdown drive, etc).

So while we’ll look back on it fondly because the last seven or eight minutes were so eventful (and that’s all that really matters), when I recall that game it’s more along the lines of, “the emotional fluctuation was immense” more so than “Never at any moment was I not entertained”. You’re going to tell me that it was fascinating to watch the Steelers just peeling minutes off the clock in the first and third quarters, capped by them being unable to get in the end zone? Fine, but I beg to differ.

Maybe back with some news and notes later.

So I’m blanking on what I should write about today. But let me start off by saying that while I like reading Stewart Mandel’s columns, he’s about two weeks behind me on the “NFL playoffs being the best defense for the BCS” talking point. I imagine in the coming weeks he’s going to write an article detailing what a great movie The Godfather is and how it’s going to someday change the landscape of the film industry.

I kid Mandel, of course. He echoes a great point and unless the NFL is going to go to a best of three format (which would drive me fucking batty) this is kind of an unavoidable situation unless we reward the teams with the best records. Even still, I have no idea what the tiebreakers would be in this hypothetical scenario, but that wouldn’t solve the Cardinals dilemma, only the Chargers. And unless you’re a Panthers/Giants/Eagles fan, who wouldn’t want the Cardinals in the playoffs. You know a point is not worth dwelling on when you can make your case by simply stating “It’s the (fill in name of entity here)” and it proves your point.

No, what we need to resolve is the two week hype machine that the NFL now insists on giving us between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. No one seems to enjoy it set aside a few of the players who bask in all the attention. Though I imagine if you asked Troy Palumalu he would want to play the game the Tuesday after winning the AFC. And to be perfectly honest, I’d rather cater to the Palumalu’s of the world than the Terrell Owens’ (I know he’s not playing in the game, but I’m struggling to come up with someone similar on either of these two teams. Joey Porter is on the Dolphins now).

Why do I pine for the return to the one week layover? Because instead of one week of stories and sub-stories akin to this, in addition to the non-stop speculation to the players’ health status and sentimental sob-stories about everyone of the lineman, we get two weeks of everything we just listed. Its not that none of it is interesting, it’s just that most of it isn’t, and if it was for any other reason than for the NFL to squeeze a few more dollars out of the arrangement, I’d have no qualms with the two week layover. But it isn’t, and it just seems to pinpoint everything we find irritating about the NFL.

I’m not sure when the decision was made to definitively make the two week break standard operating procedure, but I seem to recall it bouncing back and forth for a few years before settling on the two week hiatus about three or four years ago. I guess they figured since it is the biggest stage in American athletics, if anything is going to have an extended break to create artificial buzz it might as well be the Super Bowl. But that’s actually counter-intuitive. Everyone knows when the Super Bowl is taking place whether it’s the week or six months after the conference title games. I’d actually argue that whatever profits they see from the extra week of nefarious headlines, they lose a (admittedly small) portion of their casual fan base.

So here’s my inconsequential solution: Play it the second Friday after the title games. It doesn’t exactly cut the time in half, but is practical for a couple reasons:

1) A Healthy amount of Super Bowl viewers get drunk during the game, but usually limit themselves because they have to work in the morning. Moving it to Friday is beneficial on both ends because A) The consumer doesn’t have to get up for work at 7AM, and B) The consumer consumers more. Supposedly at least a portion of the companies that pay overpriced airtime fees for the privilege of running their marketing department’s best efforts during the game, why not try to compensate by increasing revenue for at least one night with the product you’re hawking? (Obviously I’m referring to beverages, food, things of this nature, not UPS).

As for the actual event issues that would come about from this adjusted schedule, the noteworthy parties and shit that are as much a part of Super Bowl weekend as the actual game (Maxim, Playboy, ESPN, etc.) could be held on either Thursday night (the entire city is going to be put on hold for game day, anyhow) or during the layover week.

2) While it only cuts two days out of the waiting period, it’s generally the two worst days. This would spare us that endless weekend of enhanced and unnecessary non-storylines that we’re indoctrinated with that stem everyone’s best “Look at me! I’m important!” attempt at public attention. On Mike and Mike this morning they were — I kid you not — Talking to Donald Trump about the supposed adverse effects the economy is taking on sports. I didn’t stick around to listen to interview, but the smaller Mike was talking about high end ticket prices being cut in half from $10,000 to $5,000 with the same fervor and concern that Mae Braddock used when worrying about the heat being turned off.

In other words, it was just something they used to fill the airwaves. Hey, the economy is shit, this game lacks a lot of appeal to your bandwagon fans, Barack Obama’s president, lets bring on a fame-whore whose made some money in real-estate to discuss the economy’s indirect toll on the sports world! It’s a perfect way to eat up the two hours (after commercials) we have to be on air for!

I don’t mean to complain/critique/observe so much, and Lord knows I don’t need game analysis around the clock, just give me fluff pieces about Super Bowl dreams being realized if that’s the case. I just ask for less bullshit. That’s all. Cut the bullshit in half (or in this case, just take off about 1/5) and not only will you increase your audience, you’ll be on the receiving end of less petulant bitching that never makes its way to you like this right here.

So in honor of the Oscar nominations being announced today, we’re going to doll out some more awards from the NFL/fantasy season. Unlike yesterday, these will be primarily for playoff performances. So, without further ado, your contrived award winners from the 2008 NFL post-season.

The Benjamin Button award for “most likely having reversed the aging process”
We have no evidence of Kurt Warner being on steroids and no one has even suggested it until me just now, but this isn’t supposed to ever happen. I guess Randall Cunningham with the ‘98 Vikings set a precedent for something like this (except Warner’s regular season wasn’t nearly as impressive but he’s making the Super Bowl. Garrry Annnnderrrssssonnnnnnn!), but that was kind of an anomaly. Just Cunningham whipping the ball down field to the greatest jump ball receiver in the history of the league, which opened up the running and short-yardage passing game. Warner is out there hitting targets playing in an offense by a coach who came up with the Steelers. So congrats, Kurt Warner. You’re now a lock to make the hall of fame and you didn’t play a down in the NFL until you were twenty-eight years old. Which means my dream of playing QB 1 for an NFL franchise is still alive and well.

(Speaking of Benjamin Button, I enjoyed the film and everything, as for it having the most Oscar nominations however…I’m inclined to disagree with how this developed. It’s basically Forrest Gump as seen by David Fincher and penned by the same writer. Don’t believe me? Watch this damning video evidence.)

The Reader Award for “Most Inappropriate Relationship”
To The Philadelphia Eagles for playing the Kate Winslet role, because after you just lose the NFC title game in rather heartbreaking fashion, it’s probably better to demonstrate a little more concern and not celebrate with the opposing team like you won the Super Bowl. Especially when you reside and play on a professional sports team in a city like Philadelphia. I can understand, no one can be entirely disgruntled with the fucking Arizona Cardinals going to the Super Bowl, but considering you just lost your fourth NFC title game in eight years, the fans probably would have liked to see that it had at least a tinge of an adverse effect on you. Just wait until you get off the field to remember that you are given millions of dollars to run around on a field and chase a leather ball. For the sake of everyone, put on the facade and look a little crestfallen.

The Sean Penn Award for “Always being in contention regardless of the circumstances”
To the Pittsburgh Steelers, who whether you like them or not, are always going to be in playoff contention so long as they have a moderately competent QB. With Roethlisberger only being 26, expect them to win the AFC North or make the wild card for probably the next seven or eight years. Sure, they’re in a smaller market and players like Jerome Harrison just about always end up leaving. But just like Penn, while you may not like him on a personal level, he can carry a film and render so much of it expendable. The Steelers front office can do just about the same thing.

The Mickey Rourke award for “Most probable comeback that everyone is claiming to have been improbable”
To the Miami Dolphins, who after acquiring Bill Parcells as GM, it should have been plain as day that they were going to turn it around, and even more so after they got a serviceable quarterback. The parity is such in the NFL these days that once you get proper figureheads in place the rest of the pieces fall like dominoes. Parcells is often regarded as the greatest head coach ever, once you have him officially making your personnel decisions, combined with a weak schedule and no one taking you seriously for the first half of the season, an 11-5 record isn’t all that improbable.

(I haven’t yet seen The Wrestler (actually going at lunch today), but if you look at Rourke’s recent career before heading all the critical buzz, he had already done Sin City, Domino and Once Upon A Time In Mexico in the past five years. That really isn’t that bad. Given, none of them are considered tour de force acting performances like these are, but he wasn’t exactly destitute. He just wasn’t accepting Golden Globes and thanking his dog for his roles in those films).

The Bruce Springsteen Award for “Biggest Snub without any attempted explanation”
This, obviously, goes to the New England Patriots. Who buried, and I mean laid a beating on the now NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals unlike any I have seen since…well, the New England Patriots first half of the 2007 season. I know the Chargers beat the Colts in the wild card round and that’s the justification defenders of the current system will use. But when I look at the records, I see one team was 11-5 and the other was 8-8. It seems like the record speaks for itself. And much like Springsteen winning the Golden Globe for best song, the Patriots being so successful this decade makes their absence from the playoffs all the more glaring.

The Slumdog Millionaire award for “Most Overrated Contender of the year”
To Chad Pennington. Although he carried a 1-15 team in 2007 to the playoffs in 2008, by no means did he deserve to be the runner up from the MVP. I’m probably one of 12 people outside the state of Florida who’ll remember this in two weeks, but nothing he did merited that kind of recognition. Nothing. That team went 1-15 last season because of injuries (to the quarterback and starting tailback) and unloading offensive weapons for draft picks (Chris Chambers). It was a young team built for the future that got lucky with a slightly above average veteran quarterback who won’t turn the ball over in crucial situations. At least, until he got to the playoffs.

Also, if you haven’t seen Slumdog yet, it isn’t a terrible film and I’m not recommending you avoid it. But it’s just kind of fluff in a different country with very little answered about the characters and their motivations, not to mention numerous plot holes. So while it is entertaining and “inspirational” in a sense, I wouldn’t have it nominated for Best Picture, much less winning like it did at the Golden Globes.

Anyhow, that’s it for today, we might come back with some more of these tomorrow if not any Super Bowl commentary.

If you’re wondering why there wasn’t any post yesterday the answer is quite simple: 451 Press decided to completely alter/update the interface without notifying anyone, and this just happened to be while I was writing my post. When I went to “publish” it, as Wordpress so flatteringly phrases the act of finalizing a blog post, the website ate my post alive, never to be seen again.

Anyhow, I refused to rewrite my post out of spite. Which is a damn shame because no one paying me really gives a shit either way, and it ends up being the kids that suffer. So to make up for our malfeasance, we’re going to post basically the same thing we had written yesterday, only longer. Maybe. And that is dolling out regular season fantasy awards.

MVP: Drew Brees
Common consensus seems to suggest that since these are for fantasy performers this award should go to whoever produced the most fantasy points over the course of the season. For once, we won’t give an argument to the contrary and give it to Drew Brees, who by just about any calculation bested the NFL in total offensive output. Congratulations, Mr. Brees. For your efforts you get an 8-8 record, saddled with an inadequate defense and a last name that should really have an “e” at the end of it.

Rookie Of The Year: Chris Johnson
Given the recipient, we’re going to rename this the “fuck Matty Ice” award, due to his pedestrian nature when it comes to fantasy quarterbacking. Yeah, thanks a lot for the 16 touchdowns and 11 turnovers, Matty. you really earned that spot on my bench, in case the worst happens and I actually have to start you.

No, we decided to give this to a player who produced something tangible over seventeen weeks, and that player is Chris Johnson. Chris Johnson, who started every game and was as close to a lock as any running back in the NFL to break 20+ points for the first twelve weeks of the season and was his team’s primary offensive weapon. We don’t need to tag any “game manager” qualifiers here.

So congratulations, Chris. For your troubles you get a 13-3 record, probably no more than a five year career and an unburdening sense of guilt that had you stayed healthy against the Ravens, your team would have almost definitely been playing in the AFC title game.

Most Improved Player: DeAngelo Williams (Amongst stiff competition, as well)
His season was quite annoying for anyone who drafted Jonathan Stewart (like myself). But really, who else could we have given it too? The man more than doubled his run yardage (717 to 1515) and more than quadrupled his rushing touchdowns (4 to 18) from 2007 to 2008. We’re pretty convinced he’s on steroids because frankly, there is no explainable reason for him to have a breakout season like this four years into his career and there was a reason the Panthers used the 13th overall selection this year on a rookie. But since nothing has been proven yet we’ll go ahead and throw Williams in here for Most Improved.

Congratulations, DeAngelo. For your efforts you get a humiliating home loss at the hands of the Cardinals in the divisional playoffs, due in large-part to your coach seeing fit to hand the ball to you only twelve times throughout the entire game. Hope it was worth it.

Defensive Player of The Year: Nick Collins
I had no idea who the hell you were until I decided to do this post in lieu of anything substantive, but you had three defensive touchdowns, seven interceptions and two safeties for the Green Bay Packers this season. So congratulations, Nick. For your troubles you earn a spot as a notary member of probably the best 5-11 team in the history of the NFL.

Alright, I think that about wraps it up. We might hand out some more…ostentatious awards in the coming days. For now we’ll just stick with the basics.

We’re down to two playoff games for these weekly recaps, and it is starting to dawn on us that while we’re going to struggle for material for the next couple weeks, we have nary a clue how we are going to keep this site updated during the off-season. You can only make so many LenDale White fat jokes before they start to get old. Obviously we’re going to be forced to move onto La’Ron McClain fat jokes.

Anyhow, it was an interesting day of games yesterday. But probably the most peculiar thing about it, and we should have caught it on Thursday or Friday, is that the NFC title game was the earlier broadcast. Considering, you know, the other game was in Pittsburgh, outdoors and in the eastern time zone; it seems like that would be an ideal afternoon game. At least when the other option is indoors, in Arizona and on pacific time. But what do I know? I guess it makes as much sense as Arizona being allowed to play the game at home in the first place.

But even all that taken under advisement there was a better reason to play the AFC game early: Namely, it was boring as shit. Sure, if you’re a fan of one of the two teams you saw it as an old school, hard hitting battle between divisional foes. If you’re a neutral observer like me and most of the country, you were struggling to keep your eyes open after the two hour first half that resulted in 20 total points. And that 20 wasn’t exactly thrilling. I know this is how football is “supposed” to be played, but when I’m kind of burnt out on it and it’s over two hours to play thirty minutes and neither team is of particular interest, our interest tends to wane.

To summarize because it’s obligatory, Joe Flacco’s inexperience finally cost Baltimore (as it should), as he threw three interceptions and barely cracked 33% completion percentage (13/30). Outside of Pitt’s defense, no one really performed exceptionally for Pittsburgh. Several dropped passes, and a number of shaky throws from Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh’s defense managed to carry the day that was highlighted with a Troy Polamalu pick-six (which we claimed would happen in the first quarter but it’s not on record so why do I bother mentioning it?).

For what it’s worth, when he’s dead set on winning a game, I really don’t think there’s a better defender in the league than Polamalu, who hones in on the ball like a guided missile. For all the talk of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, Polamalu outclassed them all in this contest.

Set aside the fact that it was fairly uninspired play on the offensive end (penalties seemed to count for as much as actual plays) and a four hour running time that was beyond all comprehension, the game just had no storyline beyond the petulant trash talking between several notable players. Some are intrigued by this, for us, it’s just another reason to dislike both already dislikable teams. The bickering wouldn’t be interesting to anyone if it wasn’t for the fact that we’re all familiar with those involved, the comments themselves are about two notches below “yo’ momma’” jokes and the whole thing just wreaks of self-absorption. For some of these guys to say some of the shit they do in a public venue, is a good testament too how many times they’ve been reminded of how special they are.

Of course, I hate to complain about the duration of time the game took to play out, so please take into consideration I wrote the last paragraph before Willis McGahee’s injury. Poor bastard. Can this guy go a couple seasons without sustaining some kind of horrific injury? First there was this and now we have this. Can’t this guy just sustain something like a bone bruise? Does it always have to be career threatening? Two things were refreshing about what happened in the aftermath: 1) He moved, with relative ease and regularity and 2) The Pittsburgh fans wishing him well as he was being carted through the tunnel (though I’m not sure they would have been so convivial had the Steelers been losing).

Since that is all that really happened in that game, let’s move onto the NFC which proved a little more theatric.

In short: Philly deserved to lose: Dropped passes, turnovers, shaky defense for three of four quarters. These are not the standard makings of a winning football performance. Arizona kind of impressed me, they came close to catching a few breaks (the Boldin catch after the missed interception, the missed kickoff catch from Philly that the return man shouldn’t have been going for in the first place, followed by the Arizona recovery after the ball looked like stayed in bounds that was ultimately ruled out), and managed to hold onto the win after blowing an 18 point halftime lead.

Usually when a team as experienced and (recently) adept as Philly builds momentum like that, they never relent. But ‘Zona proved resilient by putting together an efficient and crucial touchdown drive late in the fourth capped off by a converted two point conversion. It’s a good thing the subsequent defensive stop gave us the obligatory controversial call/non-call towards the end of the game, otherwise what would we have to argue about. Personally, I don’t know how you cannot call that. Having a game be decided on a 4th and 10 pass play in which the defender (intentionally or otherwise) knocks down the receiver before he has an opportunity to catch the ball seems a bit ill-advised. But if they are certain that the defender knocked down Curtis accidentally (unless he stumbled backwards into him while blindfolded, I don’t know how you can be certain of that) then I guess that is the call they have to make.

I mean, if the call goes the other way, the Cardinals still have plenty of chances to stop them even if they do convert that fourth down. And even if Philly does get in the end zone, they still have an overtime to sort out who wins. Right now it looks like a game that came down to a potentially errant decision by the officials to refrain from making a semi-obvious call under the guise of “letting them play”.

Anyhow, if Philly was going to lose it’s probably better that the botched plays on special teams (missed field goal and extra point, terrible two-point conversion attempt as a result of those kicks) weren’t the result. The riots following the game would make those after the world series win look like a good-natured game of Candyland.

So this is our Super Bowl matchup: The Arizona Cardinals vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers. On one side: The gritty underdog that no one gave a chance to get past the second round, catching fire at the right time to knock off three favorites in fairly dramatic fashion. On the other side we have the team that was considered second best in their own conference all season, who played the toughest schedule in NFL history (nine games against playoff teams) and who’s defensive consistency is their defining characteristic. I’ll let you guess which is which, but we will say one thing: We’re actually excited for this game. As much as we like to discredit the Cardinals and consider them benefactors of a seriously flawed playoff format, they are in the Super Bowl, and we can’t think of a better conclusion to a season as fucked up as this one than a Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl victory.

It for today, back tomorrow with something.

Not exactly a barrel of laughs is this match-up, unless you include unintentional humor. To be honest, unless the Steelers are wearing their throwback unis with the yellow helmets I really can’t stand either of these teams. It’s a collection of inarticulate jock-tards trading witless barbs before they beat the shit out of each other for our amusement and millions of dollars. None of it is meant to be serious, but it’s treated like the apocalypse by both franchises (especially the Ravens). Even thought the NFC title game features what many would consider two undeserving teams, at least it seems to be recognized as entertainment by everyone except for the Eagles fans.

But yeah, I’m really partial to those yellow helmets. They’re fucking shiny, alright? What do you want from me.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: Well, they certainly seem to be taking things in stride and not paranoid at all, right? Certainly they’re not buying into the “it’s impossible to beat a team three times in one season” credo. Considering I read on Deadspin yesterday that in the third game wherein one team has one the first two, they are 11-7 the third time around. So as you can see, they do not win an overwhelming amount of the time, but the notion that the team on the losing end of the first two games is destined to win is absurd.

Still, we’ve seen crazier things take place. The Ravens, even more than the Cardinals beating the Falcons, were lucky to sneak past the Titans. If Chris Johnson plays the entire game or if the refs catch that egregious delay of game (even though they did complete a 20 yard pass), things really could have swung in the Titans favor.

So everyone is picking against the Steelers, it seems. Despite their throttling of the Chargers and the fact that they’ll be at home in remarkably terrible weather going against a rookie quarterback (more on that later). Mind you, this is really the first time Willie Parker will be completely healthy going up against this Ravens defense. I know it’s a tad different than running against the Chargers, but It makes a significant difference when your next best option is Melwde Moore. Not to mention that Roethlisberger looked pretty efficient and like a playoff vet last week (something he hadn’t looked like until that moment). Personally, I think the Steelers fan base is one of the more needlessly paranoid in all of sports.

Baltimore’s Outlook: This team thrives on cliches, so naturally they’ve been playing the underdog card to the hilt this entire week and my God is it fucking irritable to listen too. Two things about the coverage of the Ravens and the Ravens themselves that has driven me nuts:

1) Derrick Mason talking shit to the Steelers and any opponent they may have down the road. He does realize that no one is afraid of their offense, right? That we’re all still relatively shocked when the offense successfully executes a play for over ten yards? If anyone is worried about being “ran over by the Ravens”, it is their defense and not their offense. Lord, you’d think that he already forgot that Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright have been throwing to him for the past three seasons.

2) I think it was someone on CBS’ pregame crew that said something along the lines of, “I think we should reconsider calling Joe Flacco a rookie anymore”. Hey nameless dipshit, “rookie” in and of itself is not exactly an insult. It signifies that you’re technically playing your first year in the league. It is, as far as the NFL is concerned, a technical term. No one is disparaging him by simply pointing out that he’d never taken a snap in the NFL before this season. It was kind of out of his hands, you know. Being born when he was. If only the NFL would let high schoolers into their league, then he’d be a seasoned vet, that’s assuming he could still walk.

Anyhow, now that we’re done venting all our disdain for the Ravens, let me explain why I think they could win: Turnovers. This is the brand of defense that thrives not on efficiency, but speed, intimidation and forced errors. Their defense is statistically worse than the Steelers, but if I’m a quarterback I’d rather going against Pitt. Let me put it this way, if they were playing Joe Flacco instead of Ben Roethlisberger, I’d consider them a shoe-in. Now it’s the proverbial coin flip. Also, while I think Parker is a better running option than the Ravens two running backs combined, McGahee and McClain are of a different brand. Parker is a speed back who’d actually benefit from ideal weather conditions, McGahee and McClain are better equipped to endure the harsher conditions.

As much as it pains me to say, they have a great shot to pull off the upset.

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Baltimore the favorite since they’ve already lost twice to the team they’re playing? Can Baltimore win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback? Is Ed Reed going to take it out on Heinz Ward that he didn’t win defensive player of the year? Does either team have any sense of irony? Who would win in a Necessary Roughness style bar brawl? Will the American public stand for another Ravens Super Bowl?

Fantasy Implications: As mentioned yesterday, I’m really expecting more production out of the NFC game. Kickers, tight ends and especially defenses are ideal acquisitions here. And if you must veer into skill position territory, I wouldn’t go beyond Ward, Parker or Mason.

The Pick: With a seemingly inflated line of +6 for the Ravens, I’m taking them to cover the spread but for the Steelers to advance. Basically, if the weather is anything in Pittsburgh like it is in Columbus, I don’t expect either team to break 17 points, meaning the opposition only needs twelve to stay inside six. But between home field advantage and the comparatively veteran quarterback, the Steelers should be able to come out of the box with a win. Which naturally means they probably won’t.

Probably it for the week, enjoy the games on Sunday.

For the sake of posterity, we’re going to follow the same format we did for the divisional playoff previews, because that went so swimmingly.

Philly’s Outlook: Reportedly Andy Reid isn’t even allowing his team to watch footage from their Thanksgiving throttling of the Cardinals, because if recent history is any indication, that game took place on Neptune. I like this strategy, when nothing about the entity with which you are employed makes sense anymore, defy all conventional wisdom. Not to mention that that games was played in an arctic monsoon, it won’t really have the same pace as a match up between the same two teams indoors at University of Phoenix Stadium (I can’t begin to explain how fortunate Arizona is in this regard).

That said, I think Philly would have beaten Arizona anywhere on fateful Thanksgiving night. When the final score is 48-20, that definitely lends to the theory that if you’re not the better team in general, then you were definitely the better team at the time. Unfortunately, since this is the NFL, all that means is you are all the more susceptible to a loss at the next go-around. Basically, they are going to have to defy the odds to win on Sunday.

How do we suspect they do that? Well, if Donovan McNabb continues to be sub-par on 1st and 2nd down but deliver on 3rd, that sounds like the fitting stake they can drive into the hearts of the Cardinals, being that Arizona hasn’t had to overcome even a modicum of adversity in these playoffs. Also, Philly’s defense is considerably better than either Atlanta’s or Carolina’s; and I certainly hope that the Eagles aren’t underestimating the Cardinals like the two teams before them.

The odd thing about the Eagles in the past two games, however, is that the team has historically gone the way of Brian Westbrook. He was completely ineffectual against the Giants, and if it wasn’t for one screen pass that turned into a 70 yard touchdown everyone would say the same thing about his performance against the Vikings. But despite his considerable shortcomings, they’ve managed to win both games convincingly. With word coming out that he tweaked his ankle in the Giants game (though when doesn’t Westbrook tweak something?), one would assume they need him to beat the Cardinals since he broke off four touchdowns against them on Thanksgiving (being an unsuspecting fantasy victim of that is etched into my mind). But since they’ve done it without him against what many would assume to be far superior teams, it’s anyone’s ball game.

Basically, if the Eagles go into this game with a semblance of determination and do not take the Cardinals lightly, they should win fairly convincingly.

Arizona’s Outlook: The argument for the Cardinals seems to be that they’re a team of destiny. The win against the Falcons and the implosion of Jake Delhomme would seem to suggest as much. But can’t the same thing be said about the Eagles? Whose turnaround has been just as unexpected, even if it wasn’t as abrupt? I guess the question really is, whose destiny was to make the NFC title game and whose was to make/win the Superbowl? (Because questions like this are so logical)

I’ll let you know where I am siding in a second, but the Cardinals do have some things going for them. 1) They’re still the underdog. It has been a good year for the underdog in the 2008/09 NFL playoffs. As of now, they’re 6-2 in not just covering, but outright winning. In addition, both these teams have thrived off playing the “no one respects us” card as a motivator. The Cardinals still have this to their advantage, the Eagles do not. Unfortunately for them, they’re playing a team that’s even more of a fluke than they are.

2) They’re at home. Look, I know the Cardinals went out east and refuted all the naysayers who said they didn’t have a chance just because Arizona was 0-5 when on the Atlantic coast and Carolina was 8-0 at home (what tediousness). But it generally doesn’t drop below freezing in Charlotte, North Carolina. Come January in Philadelphia, you’re lucky if it stays above 20. And despite Arizona’s epic collapse at the end of the season taking place all over the country, their two worst games were at New England and at Philly. In other words, count your blessings, everyone associated with Arizona, that the second half of the NFL’s playoff seeding rarely makes any sense.

3) The team they’re playing is only 9-6-1. So far they’ve upset two teams from the NFC South that were 11-5 and 12-4 respectively. The Eagles regular season tribulations are widely reported and almost served as a springboard for their two week playoff run (they beat the Giants in week fifteen, took a week off against the Redskins and lost, then clobbered the Cowboys in week 17. It was truly inspiring). Conventional wisdom would suggest that this bodes well for the Cardinals.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Can Donovan McNabb with the “big one”? Is Kurt Warner’s playoff experience a factor? Can Anquan Boldin’s chiropractor cure cancer? Is Edgerrin James going to leave the Cardinals? Does DeSean Jackson upset small children with his self-boasting? Just how unsportsmanlike is Donovan McNabb and what goes on in his head? Because, you know, Donovan McNabb has such an extensive history of questionable on-field behavior. I’ll never forget the time he body slammed Terrell Owens in 2004.

Fantasy Implications: If you’re still reading this site for fantasy football all I can do is apologize. The URL has gotten very misleading in the past few weeks. In short: I expect a high scoring affair rivaled only by the Kurt Warner teams of old in St. Louis. Depending on how many moves you have left in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge Extravaganza, I would put all my stock in this game except for my kicker and defense (Jeff Reed & Pittsburgh are the other viable options here) and fill the void in the Superbowl left by my vanquished players.

The Pick: If you can’t tell from the contrarian mess that was written up until this point, I’m not really taking this even a little seriously anymore. Earlier I asked which is the team of destiny to make the Superbowl and which to make the NFC Title game earlier. Well, since Arizona hadn’t won a home playoff game in 61 years and this will be the Eagles fifth NFC title game in eight seasons, it feels like Arizona’s destiny has already been met. I am taking Philly to win and to cover the four points they’re getting. It has been an unfathomable run for the Cardinals, but you can put asterisks next to both of their wins thus far (even if the win in Carolina was impressive).

Then again, this might be McNabb’s and Andy Reid’s fate: Relegated too good to great seasons but no Superbowl wins. To say the least, I can totally envision a scenario in which Arizona earns their trip to Tampa, but for a team that has won two games based on multiple freak occurrences that have constantly played in their favor, I have to take the Eagles.

AFC title preview tomorrow.

We’re going to attempt to follow the same format we used yesterday. If their is some innocuous difference in how we preview this game, then please, keep it to yourself or try to reconcile with the fact that we are more than aware of it, but we just didn’t care.

Also, The only reason this game is rated higher on our competitiveness scale is we give much more credence to the win over the Colts than Arizona’s win over Atlanta. Indy was a better team than the Falcons throughout the season, they played a better game than Atlanta in the wild card match-up and just in tone and tenor it felt a little less fluky.

San Diego’s Outlook: Much to my surprise, people are picking the Chargers to win this game outright. Apparently if you can run with Darren Sproles against Indy, you can run against a record setting defense. Now, we’ve been hinting at Sproles being the better option in the backfield than Tomlinson since roughly week eight or nine. And some might say he proved it on Saturday night. While he did look impressive and he could quite possibly be an elevated degree of the diminutive running back trend we’ve seen in the NFL this season, it doesn’t mean he’s going to run against the Steelers.

Why so pessimistic? One reason, really: Nobody runs against the Steelers. It doesn’t make much sense to me to suspect that a warm weather west coast team is going to travel east to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in January and pull out a win. It just doesn’t. Particularly when the east coast team won four more games during the regular season. the Indy win was great and all, but Indy is/was a finesse team. Pitt is a bruising, hard nose, “we’d only wear leather helmets if we could” old school team. Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jerome Harrison? That’s an entirely different ball of yarn than Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Gary Brackett.

That said, no team offense and no quarterback has been moving the ball downfield better than the Chargers (well, except maybe the Patriots. Ahem). Phillip Rivers has been the best quarterback in the league for the last month and assuming they play with Vincent Jackson, they’ll be able to spread the field and maybe put a dent in that Pittsburgh defense. It is somewhat trite to say, but if their defense forces some turnovers (because their defense isn’t good enough to continually force the Steelers to punt), they can come out of Steel town with a W.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: With a team that’s as focused and virulent as the Steelers, there is never a question as to whether they’re going to forget their objective because of a week off. They won’t. I’ll never understand why the Steelers organization is so much better ran than everyone else in the NFL, but I imagine it has something to do with coaching. Mike Tomlin was a strong hire to continue the Chuck Nohl, Bill Cowher mindset.

In other words, the Steelers typically do not lose games like this. If they’re involved in a game where there is a clear cut favorite and an upset takes place, they’re just about always the ones doing the upsetting. I wouldn’t expect anything different this week especially with the circumstances being what they are.

On the other side of the coin, however, the offense this season has been the epitome of inconsistence. If you look at their point totals for the season, you have to imagine that if they go into this game and can’t regularly move the ball downfield, things have the potential to become much more challenging than they should be.

Roethlisberger, for as great of a winning percentage as he has and for as great as he can look any given week, is just not the quarterback everyone wants him to be. Pittsburgh is, was and always will be a run first offense. He is best used in small, efficient doses (limited passing attempts for big chunks of yardage and a couple touchdowns). That isn’t to say he isn’t serviceable or even very good. But he isn’t Joe Montana or John Elway or even Phillip Rivers.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: How will Big Ben recover from his concussion? Can Darren Sproles repeat his performance? Can the vaunted Pitt defense “find” Sproles behind the offensive line? Will Vincent Jackson’s DUI be a distraction for the underdog? I think the only way to settle these and more is to have a hyper, inarticulate discussion riddled with insider jokes between Chris Berman and a slew of former players.

Fantasy Implications: Just like yesterday and for every other game this weekend, there really isn’t any. But if you want recommendations for NFL.com’s fantasy playoff challenge extravaganza, I like Antonio Gates to blow up as he’ll be used to bail out Rivers several times I’m sure. A healthy Willie Parker isn’t going to do you wrong, either. Also, if someone puts a keg and a couple Patron bottles in the end zone, Vincent Jackson might be setting all kinds of records. Someone has to take the initiative, though. Those bottles aren’t going to buy themselves, people.

The Pick: Ugh, I hate to do this for the second game in a row, but six doesn’t seem like a big enough spread. We have to take the Steelers to win outright and to cover, because if you look at who they have lost to during the season, two of the teams were 12-4 (Giants, Colts), one was 13-3 (Titans) and the other was the Eagles (who are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment). As much as I may want to (and you have no idea how much I want to), I just can’t see San Diego following up last week’s performance on the road. Outside of the superior passing game, the only thing San Diego has going for it is Darren Sproles’ low center of gravity. He’ll be able to eat up the slop that is Heinz field better than most.

Back with more tomorrow.

Oh yeah, the playoff games. As you could probably tell from today’s earlier post, I was woefully unimpressed with the Dolphins-Ravens match-up, particularly the Dolphins performance. Chad Pennington made Phil Mickelson look collected at Wingfoot with his showing yesterday afternoon. If you actually used any of the players from this game in your fantasy challenge, then bully for you, but I still think you’re an idiot. Unless you had Baltimore’s defense (five forced turnovers and a solid effort all around) the outcome probably left something to be desired. God help you if you were enough of a homer to take Chad Pennington.

The follow up was an improvement, but not much of one. Compared to Saturday Sunday’s games were like watching grass grow. Philly came out and gave the Vikings a pretty thorough and convincing beating. If anyone thought that Tavaris Jackson could impede Minnesota’s progress, then you thought right. His game statistically speaking wasn’t the worst of the day (that honor belongs to MVP runner up Chad Pennington), but it really should have been. We are in the playoffs, after all. Even if he wasn’t the worst of the four quarterbacks playing on Sunday, he was the most responsible for his team’s failures. In fact, I will go so far as to say of all the people on the field, he was solely responsible.

On the sidelines Brad Childress should definitely endure some of the blame. Set aside the fact that the offense looks inept and one-dimensional 90% of the time they take the field, and that he is obviously limited by his quarterback options, he didn’t do any adjusting to potentially help aid his struggling QB. Take for example, when there were roughly six minutes left, Minnesota was down two scores and clearly not advancing the ball down field anytime soon, wouldn’t it had made sense to pull Jackson out in favor of Ferotte. I mean, Gus isn’t exactly Tom Brady, but he’s clearly the better pocket passer of the two and thus more likely to hit open receivers when time is of the essence.

But no. They ended up punting, then getting yet another stop out of their defense, then he fumbled the ball on their last offensive possession of the game. All while the coach sat idly by waiting for Tavaris Jackson to do something everyone knows he’s incapable of doing: Leading an NFL team to victory in the waning minutes of a game. I’m sure the Minny fans who came out at the last second to purchase tickets appreciated it.

Still this wasn’t a problem for just this game, but pretty much the entire season. With the slew of quarterbacks set to enter the 2009 draft, I expect Minnesota to address this need direly. In fact, if I’m Detroit, I attempt to take advantage of their situation and trade away the rights of the first overall to them for a slew of middle-tier picks.

In short, I’m not sure how dominant Philly was but rather how dominant Minnesota made them look. The Eagles are going into the Meadowlands next week, to play a Giants team that has since adjusted to being top 10 receiver-less since the last time they crushed them 20-8, shortly after the nightclub self-inflicted gun wound incident. If they resemble the type of team they showed then and last night, I think we’ll be looking at yet another NFC title game for Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, if not, I’m sure a once banged up but rested Giants squad is going to come out swinging.

That’s pretty much it. We’ll try to dedicate a full post to each game this upcoming weekend from now until Friday. Until then, hopefully something relevant and interesting to fantasy football will come to mind so we can try to stay on topic.