Fantasy Football

A lot going on in the past few days that we’ve neglected to write about: NFL schedules being announced (Note: we like Adrian Peterson this year), John Madden just recently retired (we understand he’s something of an icon to your NFL loyalist, but it’s time for some new blood) and a bunch of people resigned with their current teams that shouldn’t really have any impact on the upcoming season that it didn’t have on the last (Jones-Drew & Harrison most notably).

Again, none of this is really relevant to anything regarding fantasy football, but it’s still news we could have at least commented on, because this site is so current and encompassing. But finally, we have a smidgen of news that might actually have a tangible effect on your 2009 season: Anquan Boldin is now officially on the trading block. I’m not sure what the big deal is, wasn’t he on the trading block about three months ago? Whatever. But the three main contenders come from all statures, proving that a star receiver is valuable regardless of current standing: The Browns, The Giants and The Eagles.

Or these are the three teams who seem to have surfaced, at least. He’ll probably end up playing for the Dolphins or something. But of the three the Giants are the team that not only need him the most, but the team he could improve the most, despite the fact they went 13-3 last season and won the Superbowl the year before it. Personally, though, I don’t see it happening. The Giants have little to offer in the way of draft picks (fairly low), there defense is stretched too thin, and they have no viable quarterback that they will be willing to trade that the Cardinals would probably put some value in. All they have to offer is running backs, and even then it’s only Bradshaw, who the Cardinals probably feel they can draft better than, much less give up a top five receiver for.

The Browns, on the other hand, have already thrown it out there that they would love for someone to take Braylon Edwards off their hands. Which seems insane to me, since they traded away the most talented tight-end in the league, their second wideout is facing a DUI manslaughter charge, and they’re starting a brand new quarterback who no one in the organization seems to like. I mean, right now if you’re a Browns fan, you have to be wondering if they’re cleaning house or sabotaging the team from the top down.

Bringing in Boldin would be a step in the right direction. Unload some draft picks in a weak draft, maybe throw them a bone with a utility receiver, keep Edwards, and you have a top three receiving corps. for the next five years. I know much of the Cleveland faithful want Edwards gone because he does have a penchant for dropping passes at costly points in the game, but he has top-five pure, god-given talent (behind Moss, Fitzgerald, Calvin & Andre Johnson). You don’t mortgage that because he played college ball in Ann Arbor (which I think has a lot to do with the antipathy for him). In short, I don’t see Cleveland pulling the trigger because off all this talk about Eric Mangini wanting to bring in “his own guys”.

What kind of narcissistic bullshit is that? “Whatever success I may experience, I can’t have any of the credit going to my predecessor who is also presumably my friend as we were coordinators together for one of the greatest franchise runs of all time.” Honestly, I defended the Mangini hiring and condemned his firing at the time, but he does seem like a bit of an asshole. The good news for Cleveland is, assholes tend to thrive in the NFL, especially at the coaching position.

Or maybe bringing in a free agent is considered “his own guy” because he was brought in under his clock, I don’t know. But what I do know is that Philly, all things considered, is the best and most likely fit of the three teams. For starters, they have multiple first round picks, meaning they could offer a first and a third (the same thing the Cowboys gave up for Roy Williams, which kind of set the market value for standout receivers) and not sacrifice an entire draft for the benefit of one offensive weapon.

The only setback would be if the Eagles haven’t recovered from their Terrell Owens hangover, which has prevented them from acquiring and hanging onto a legitimate first option at the wideout position. I can understand the trepidation, Anquan Boldin could have represented himself better in the playoffs, but I can also assure you that they are not making the playoffs without Boldin, even in the weak, weak NFC West.

That said, I think one aspect of this trade all three of those teams might want to take note of: Anquan Boldin does not operate well in cold weather. He’s not Kurt Warner bad, but he’s not Larry Fitzgerald good, either. Boldin played at Florida State, and went straight from their to the desert, playing at Sun Devil Stadium (which has to have the highest average temperature of any college stadium in the country) and later in a fucking dome at University of Phoenix. If you recall the Thanksgiving game, which was blistering cold in Philly, he dropped numerous passes and played a large hand in costing his team the game. If any of these teams are going to consider a move with this many potential consequences, they might want to make sure games like that are anomalies and don’t speak to a pattern of ineptitude.

If I am the Titans, however, I get the Bidwell’s on the phone post-haste.

So here it is, the biggest sporting event in America that manages to be over hyped every single year. It is a frequent topic of discussion whether or not a Super Bowl lives up to expectations. Ofttimes a person posed with such a question will make some sort of blanket statement along the lines of, “the game always sucks anyways”, as if it’s a highly original thought to dismiss a conversation piece with some faux-anti-establishment stance. When in actuality this perspective is so commonplace that it tows the line more so than ripping it off course.

And it’s for no reason really. If you look back at every Super Bowl going back to the Packers win over the Patriots in 1996, the duds have been few and far between. Fuck it, let’s just do the rundown in chronological order:

Packers over Patriots: I enjoyed this game immensely but we’re calling it a half-dud mainly because it wasn’t closely contested. This was one of those games in which everything that everyone thought would happen, happened. But between all the special teams plays and that it laid the groundwork for the Patriots dynasty, we found it enjoyable and look back on it fondly. This was also the last game in the NFC’s streak of Super Bowl victories.

Broncos over Packers: Was regarded as a tremendous upset and I’m still not sure why. Denver was fucking stacked but some things never change, because even when Brett Favre was great he was still overrated. There wasn’t much he could do about Denver hanging 31 on his defense. Terrell Davis went ape shit and John Elway solidified his legacy. This is probably still my favorite Super Bowl.

Broncos over Falcons: On the other hand, this is probably the worst. It will, for always and forever be remembered as the Super Bowl that missed out on the greatest NFL offense I’ve ever seen in the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Just go look at the numbers and the roster. This was a loaded offense with a serviceable defense that missed out on the title because their kicker who hadn’t missed a field goal all season, decided that late in the fourth quarter in the NFC title game was an appropriate time to do so. As a result, we got this god awful blowout that everyone could see coming a mile away.

Rams over Titans: This was supposed to be a blowout but the tenacious Tennessee Titans led by Steve McNair and Eddie George made a game of it, coming up just a yard short of the end zone to send it into overtime (not win them the title like historical revisionists are so apt to do). Definitely an entertaining, memorable contest.

Ravens over Giants: The Falcons-Broncos game was technically the worst we’ve ever seen, but only because we didn’t even bother to watch this train wreck. We didn’t know who was going to win and we didn’t give a shit. Both teams we impossible to objectively root for and this was during our freshman year of college. Needless to say we were preoccupied.

Patriots over Rams: The biggest upset we had seen at the time, the Patriots went in as double digit underdogs and came out with the win. At the time, every neutral fan was elated, none the wiser that it would start a dynasty and put the nation’s most insufferable fans in the spotlight for an entire decade. Never the less, the game itself was immensely satisfying because we never liked those Rams teams. They always got too much credit for their offense, “GREATEST. EVER.” Was the common description, completely ignoring our beloved Minnesota Vikings that we bandwagoned in 1998.

Buccaneers over Raiders: A dud in all respects but it’s gets a better rating than the Broncos second win or the Ravens win because we won money off of it, and for Craig Kilborne’s joke, “When asked if he was going to throw six interceptions in his next professional outing, Rich Gannon threw a pen at the reporter…only for it to be caught by another reporter”.

Patriots over Panthers: This was a great second half. Or maybe it only felt that way because it followed the dreariest half of football we’ve ever been privy too. It also stands out because while just about everyone was picking the Patriots to win, the only people who were diverging from common consensus were former players turned analysts. The Pats still ended up winning but they really shouldn’t have, and it still remains the best argument for why an ex-player makes a better analyst by virtue of being an ex-player than say, John Clayton.

Patriots over Eagles: Patriots beat “my” team in dramatic fashion, take home their third title in four years by a field goal. In spite of my subjectivity, this game offered a lot for the indifferent viewer.

Steelers over Seahawks: Just when you were tiring of the Patriots and were happy to see them left out of super Sunday, you immediately regretted it after watching this poor excuse for a game. The went into the game as a wild card favorite and ended up winning based on a series of calls that could have gone either way, and they all ended up going against them. To this day Seahawks fans still bitch about it.

Colts over Bears: This game was only two years ago and we remember nothing about it. Two stinkfests in a row.

Giants over Patriots: A textbook David vs. Goliath match up that produced similar results. This time around it was the Patriots getting bounced by a three point margin, much to the glee of everyone who hates dynasties.

As you can see, that’s a 6-6-1 giving us a 50% success rate. So, in other words, much like everything else in the world it only disappoints you half the time. Just enjoy the game regardless of what shape it takes. At least its free. With that said, lets take a look at the Sunday’s game. We’ll follow the same format we used for the divisional and playoff rounds.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: I drifted through the past two weeks just assuming everyone was picking the Steelers. But listening to the radio for the first time since the Monday following the title games, it would seem the tide has shifted. Even though Pitt is still a heavy favorite they can now play the vaunted “Nobody respects us” card, something that hard-hitting meat-heads thrive off of. This moniker is like chum in a shark tank.

We could very well end up seeing Pitt mopping the floor with the Cardinals. They’re better coached, have more overall talent and possess a balanced offensive attack that the Cardinals only saw against a self-destructing Panthers team. We all remember Roethlisberger’s performance from his first Super Bowl that his team won in spite of, but most would tell you that while his play is inconsistent and shaky at times, a repeat performance like that is unlikely. Most would probably tell you if they avoid turning the ball over, they should be in the clear.

On the defensive side, this is statistically one of the better defenses to ever grace and NFL field. Tenacious, intimidating, strategic…There isn’t a liability to be found. But have they played a team with this many weapons in the post-season? Call me crazy, but I think the Cardinals receiving corps. top three options are better than any receiver sported by either the Chargers or Ravens. Not that I would expect them too, but the Steelers aren’t incapable of overlooking their opponent.

Arizona’s Outlook: And for good reason. This is a team that only got into the playoffs by playing in and winning one of the weaker divisions we’ve ever seen in the NFL (or the NBA for that matter). Everyone always said throughout the Cardinals three playoff wins that their vanquished opponents took them too lightly, and that was their undoing. Obviously this played a role but I don’t know if it’s necessarily a tremendous character flaw that everyone made it out to be. Of course they were taken lightly! They were 9-7 in the regular season and limped into the post-season. This team we’ve seen in January is obviously filled with ringers.

But it has been a helluva run, regardless of how you frame their journey to Tampa. The defense has adapted to each opponent, gotten to the quarterback and taken advantage of their mistakes. The offense is clicking on all cylinders and has played almost flawless football (which includes one and a half games without Boldin), each side has sucked it up and Edgerrin James is now contributing amply, spelling Tim Hightower. If there is a team of destiny in this game, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. And I have to be honest, that seems to be the vibe from a lot of observers, objective and subjective alike. Why else would they pick Arizona to win?

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Larry Fitzgerald able to leap buildings in a single bound? Will his dad pretend to be objective while watching him in the press box? Will God win this game for Kurt Warner? Is Anquan Boldin going to murder his coordinator? Did the entire city of Pittsburgh relocate itself in Tampa, Florida? Can Arizona run the ball on Pitt? Can Pitt throw the ball on Arizona? Will strip clubs prove to be a distraction?

Fantasy Advice: We’ll get back to fantasy posts the week after the Super Bowl. My apologies for this.

The Pick: We’re torn. On one hand, we’ve got the stalwarts in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The workman like NFL mainstay that no one is surprised to see here, “defense wins championships and all that”. They went through what was statistically the toughest regular season schedule and came out of it with a 12-4 record. But they only went 3-4 in the seven games they played against playoff teams.

On the other we have the Arizona Cardinals, a makeshift team of a second year coach, a once washed up quarterback and a virtual no name defense. They weren’t supposed to make it out of the first round and managed to do so by the skin of their teeth. Throughout the course of the playoffs, they’ve demonstrated that they’re capable of winning this game, but look at these scores: 56-35, 48-20, 35-14, 47-7. Do you know what these are? These are the scores of games that the Cardinals lost during the regular season. Basically, when deliberating on whether you’re picking the Cardinals, you’re deciding if the two week hiatus is going to kill their momentum.

Jesus, I don’t know why we’re so indecisive with this one. Just in writing this post we’ve changed our mind about ten different times…Alright, we’re going to say that yes, it did indeed kill their momentum. Between that and the fact that the Steelers are going to have about ten times as many fans as the Cardinals, not to mention that Pittsburgh is just, and this is a crazy notion, simply the better team. We’ll take them to win and to cover the 6.5, but only because we’re rooting for Arizona.

Well, we’re 3-7 so far in the playoffs, though that feels about average for this post-season. And we finished 52-39-5 on the regular season. If you need that spelled out for you, it makes us 55-46-5 on our picks outright. Its not too shabby. Sans week fifteen and the playoffs, we are picking at about 60%, and we can’t fucking stand putting money down on the NFL. So yeah, it proves us wrong in a way, but we’re not going to let this temptress take our roll.

But semi-related to picking games, last year we made something of a small fortune on prop bets (we hit on “neither team would score three times in a row”, “Plaxico Burress would score final touchdown”, “David Tyree would score a touchdown” and “Laurence Maroney would score a touchdown”), but we no longer know anyone in Vegas and are hesitant to pick up the habit of online gambling. Never the less, for those of you who aren’t completely gutless or are fortunate enough to be in a county with legalized gambling, here are some prop bets we like:

Arizona +4 at half
I’m unsure as to which team I am picking to win this game (we’ll figure it out by the end of this post), but I like Arizona going into halftime with a six point lead or so. Why? Because they’ve basically done just that every game until now. Pitt’s defense is tenacious, but I could see them undermining this Arizona team like everyone else has. If the last three games they’ve played have counted for anything (and since we’ve had two weeks off, they don’t), Arizona should be able to at least keep it close until halftime.

Race to ten points: Arizona +150
For pretty much the same reason we like the Cardinals to cover that halftime spread. Also, Pittsburgh doesn’t usually come out the gates and beat their opponent over the head with an overwhelming amount of offensive output. Their style, on both offense and defense is more…relentless. And doesn’t expose itself too early in any contest.

First score: Arizona Touchdown: +290, Arizona Field Goal: +375
If you don’t know what these numbers mean, you put $50 on either bet, they pay out $195 & $237.50 respectively.

Pittsburgh to win by 11-15 +500
Arizona to win by 6-10 +900
It’s a good way to hedge your bets and also makes a potentially boring game significantly more interesting for your neutral observers.

First to Score Wins: No at +150
This is for your most degenerate of gamblers. We’ll call it the mortgage maker. But, at the same time it’s basically a 50/50 shot that this plays out in your favor and it pays out significantly better than that. If you’re not a degenerate (ooooh, Mr. Fancy Pants. You’re too good to place your kids college tuition on a prop Super Bowl bet? What? You think you’re better than me?), then this is a good bet to lay down for your girlfriend/new bride to keep her interested if she’s not already into football. She’ll have something to root for and might actually avoid sulking why you’re trying to enjoy yourself. Again, if she’s not already into football in the first place.

First Touchdown Scorer
Willie Parker +500 Because it’s possible he breaks an early run for a long touchdown
Edgerrin James +800 Because he’s had a resurgence and everyone is rooting for him now
Tim Hightower +900 Because he handles the goal line carries and if he gets in the end zone and not James, you’re going to be displeased if you had money on one and not the other.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s under the radar all of a sudden.
Heath Miller +1200 Because he’s their first option in short yardage.

Last Touchdown Scorer
Larry Fitzgerald +550 Because I can see him unceremoniously getting in the end zone after a disappointing game.
Hines Ward +800 Because he’s their best weapon on offense.
Edgerrin James +800 Because whether it’s close or they’re winning or losing convincingly, he’s going to be concerned about his stats.
Santonio Holmes +900 Because he plays special teams.
Tim Hightower +900 Because he gets every goal line carry.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s inexplicably under the radar.
Nate Washington +1500 Because he’s unsuspecting.
Steve Breaston +1500 Because he’s there, capable and really, really underrated.
Troy Palumalu +3300 Because he thrives at taking advantage of his opponents frantic self-defeat and putting the final nail in their coffin. And besides, if you put $50 on it, it pays out $1,700.

Alright, that’s it for the prop bets that looked appealing. There were some others on the board that are foreseeable but the odds aren’t really favorable. I wouldn’t want to put money on any prop bet unless it pays out better than a standard line bet, and occasionally they’re pay out is worse. There really doesn’t seem to be any point in engaging in this sort of behavior.

We’ll be back later today/tonight for our actual game pick and a general overview. We might also hold out for a live blog of the game, depending on how we end up spending our time while it’s on.

Not exactly a barrel of laughs is this match-up, unless you include unintentional humor. To be honest, unless the Steelers are wearing their throwback unis with the yellow helmets I really can’t stand either of these teams. It’s a collection of inarticulate jock-tards trading witless barbs before they beat the shit out of each other for our amusement and millions of dollars. None of it is meant to be serious, but it’s treated like the apocalypse by both franchises (especially the Ravens). Even thought the NFC title game features what many would consider two undeserving teams, at least it seems to be recognized as entertainment by everyone except for the Eagles fans.

But yeah, I’m really partial to those yellow helmets. They’re fucking shiny, alright? What do you want from me.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: Well, they certainly seem to be taking things in stride and not paranoid at all, right? Certainly they’re not buying into the “it’s impossible to beat a team three times in one season” credo. Considering I read on Deadspin yesterday that in the third game wherein one team has one the first two, they are 11-7 the third time around. So as you can see, they do not win an overwhelming amount of the time, but the notion that the team on the losing end of the first two games is destined to win is absurd.

Still, we’ve seen crazier things take place. The Ravens, even more than the Cardinals beating the Falcons, were lucky to sneak past the Titans. If Chris Johnson plays the entire game or if the refs catch that egregious delay of game (even though they did complete a 20 yard pass), things really could have swung in the Titans favor.

So everyone is picking against the Steelers, it seems. Despite their throttling of the Chargers and the fact that they’ll be at home in remarkably terrible weather going against a rookie quarterback (more on that later). Mind you, this is really the first time Willie Parker will be completely healthy going up against this Ravens defense. I know it’s a tad different than running against the Chargers, but It makes a significant difference when your next best option is Melwde Moore. Not to mention that Roethlisberger looked pretty efficient and like a playoff vet last week (something he hadn’t looked like until that moment). Personally, I think the Steelers fan base is one of the more needlessly paranoid in all of sports.

Baltimore’s Outlook: This team thrives on cliches, so naturally they’ve been playing the underdog card to the hilt this entire week and my God is it fucking irritable to listen too. Two things about the coverage of the Ravens and the Ravens themselves that has driven me nuts:

1) Derrick Mason talking shit to the Steelers and any opponent they may have down the road. He does realize that no one is afraid of their offense, right? That we’re all still relatively shocked when the offense successfully executes a play for over ten yards? If anyone is worried about being “ran over by the Ravens”, it is their defense and not their offense. Lord, you’d think that he already forgot that Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright have been throwing to him for the past three seasons.

2) I think it was someone on CBS’ pregame crew that said something along the lines of, “I think we should reconsider calling Joe Flacco a rookie anymore”. Hey nameless dipshit, “rookie” in and of itself is not exactly an insult. It signifies that you’re technically playing your first year in the league. It is, as far as the NFL is concerned, a technical term. No one is disparaging him by simply pointing out that he’d never taken a snap in the NFL before this season. It was kind of out of his hands, you know. Being born when he was. If only the NFL would let high schoolers into their league, then he’d be a seasoned vet, that’s assuming he could still walk.

Anyhow, now that we’re done venting all our disdain for the Ravens, let me explain why I think they could win: Turnovers. This is the brand of defense that thrives not on efficiency, but speed, intimidation and forced errors. Their defense is statistically worse than the Steelers, but if I’m a quarterback I’d rather going against Pitt. Let me put it this way, if they were playing Joe Flacco instead of Ben Roethlisberger, I’d consider them a shoe-in. Now it’s the proverbial coin flip. Also, while I think Parker is a better running option than the Ravens two running backs combined, McGahee and McClain are of a different brand. Parker is a speed back who’d actually benefit from ideal weather conditions, McGahee and McClain are better equipped to endure the harsher conditions.

As much as it pains me to say, they have a great shot to pull off the upset.

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Baltimore the favorite since they’ve already lost twice to the team they’re playing? Can Baltimore win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback? Is Ed Reed going to take it out on Heinz Ward that he didn’t win defensive player of the year? Does either team have any sense of irony? Who would win in a Necessary Roughness style bar brawl? Will the American public stand for another Ravens Super Bowl?

Fantasy Implications: As mentioned yesterday, I’m really expecting more production out of the NFC game. Kickers, tight ends and especially defenses are ideal acquisitions here. And if you must veer into skill position territory, I wouldn’t go beyond Ward, Parker or Mason.

The Pick: With a seemingly inflated line of +6 for the Ravens, I’m taking them to cover the spread but for the Steelers to advance. Basically, if the weather is anything in Pittsburgh like it is in Columbus, I don’t expect either team to break 17 points, meaning the opposition only needs twelve to stay inside six. But between home field advantage and the comparatively veteran quarterback, the Steelers should be able to come out of the box with a win. Which naturally means they probably won’t.

Probably it for the week, enjoy the games on Sunday.

For the sake of posterity, we’re going to follow the same format we did for the divisional playoff previews, because that went so swimmingly.

Philly’s Outlook: Reportedly Andy Reid isn’t even allowing his team to watch footage from their Thanksgiving throttling of the Cardinals, because if recent history is any indication, that game took place on Neptune. I like this strategy, when nothing about the entity with which you are employed makes sense anymore, defy all conventional wisdom. Not to mention that that games was played in an arctic monsoon, it won’t really have the same pace as a match up between the same two teams indoors at University of Phoenix Stadium (I can’t begin to explain how fortunate Arizona is in this regard).

That said, I think Philly would have beaten Arizona anywhere on fateful Thanksgiving night. When the final score is 48-20, that definitely lends to the theory that if you’re not the better team in general, then you were definitely the better team at the time. Unfortunately, since this is the NFL, all that means is you are all the more susceptible to a loss at the next go-around. Basically, they are going to have to defy the odds to win on Sunday.

How do we suspect they do that? Well, if Donovan McNabb continues to be sub-par on 1st and 2nd down but deliver on 3rd, that sounds like the fitting stake they can drive into the hearts of the Cardinals, being that Arizona hasn’t had to overcome even a modicum of adversity in these playoffs. Also, Philly’s defense is considerably better than either Atlanta’s or Carolina’s; and I certainly hope that the Eagles aren’t underestimating the Cardinals like the two teams before them.

The odd thing about the Eagles in the past two games, however, is that the team has historically gone the way of Brian Westbrook. He was completely ineffectual against the Giants, and if it wasn’t for one screen pass that turned into a 70 yard touchdown everyone would say the same thing about his performance against the Vikings. But despite his considerable shortcomings, they’ve managed to win both games convincingly. With word coming out that he tweaked his ankle in the Giants game (though when doesn’t Westbrook tweak something?), one would assume they need him to beat the Cardinals since he broke off four touchdowns against them on Thanksgiving (being an unsuspecting fantasy victim of that is etched into my mind). But since they’ve done it without him against what many would assume to be far superior teams, it’s anyone’s ball game.

Basically, if the Eagles go into this game with a semblance of determination and do not take the Cardinals lightly, they should win fairly convincingly.

Arizona’s Outlook: The argument for the Cardinals seems to be that they’re a team of destiny. The win against the Falcons and the implosion of Jake Delhomme would seem to suggest as much. But can’t the same thing be said about the Eagles? Whose turnaround has been just as unexpected, even if it wasn’t as abrupt? I guess the question really is, whose destiny was to make the NFC title game and whose was to make/win the Superbowl? (Because questions like this are so logical)

I’ll let you know where I am siding in a second, but the Cardinals do have some things going for them. 1) They’re still the underdog. It has been a good year for the underdog in the 2008/09 NFL playoffs. As of now, they’re 6-2 in not just covering, but outright winning. In addition, both these teams have thrived off playing the “no one respects us” card as a motivator. The Cardinals still have this to their advantage, the Eagles do not. Unfortunately for them, they’re playing a team that’s even more of a fluke than they are.

2) They’re at home. Look, I know the Cardinals went out east and refuted all the naysayers who said they didn’t have a chance just because Arizona was 0-5 when on the Atlantic coast and Carolina was 8-0 at home (what tediousness). But it generally doesn’t drop below freezing in Charlotte, North Carolina. Come January in Philadelphia, you’re lucky if it stays above 20. And despite Arizona’s epic collapse at the end of the season taking place all over the country, their two worst games were at New England and at Philly. In other words, count your blessings, everyone associated with Arizona, that the second half of the NFL’s playoff seeding rarely makes any sense.

3) The team they’re playing is only 9-6-1. So far they’ve upset two teams from the NFC South that were 11-5 and 12-4 respectively. The Eagles regular season tribulations are widely reported and almost served as a springboard for their two week playoff run (they beat the Giants in week fifteen, took a week off against the Redskins and lost, then clobbered the Cowboys in week 17. It was truly inspiring). Conventional wisdom would suggest that this bodes well for the Cardinals.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Can Donovan McNabb with the “big one”? Is Kurt Warner’s playoff experience a factor? Can Anquan Boldin’s chiropractor cure cancer? Is Edgerrin James going to leave the Cardinals? Does DeSean Jackson upset small children with his self-boasting? Just how unsportsmanlike is Donovan McNabb and what goes on in his head? Because, you know, Donovan McNabb has such an extensive history of questionable on-field behavior. I’ll never forget the time he body slammed Terrell Owens in 2004.

Fantasy Implications: If you’re still reading this site for fantasy football all I can do is apologize. The URL has gotten very misleading in the past few weeks. In short: I expect a high scoring affair rivaled only by the Kurt Warner teams of old in St. Louis. Depending on how many moves you have left in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge Extravaganza, I would put all my stock in this game except for my kicker and defense (Jeff Reed & Pittsburgh are the other viable options here) and fill the void in the Superbowl left by my vanquished players.

The Pick: If you can’t tell from the contrarian mess that was written up until this point, I’m not really taking this even a little seriously anymore. Earlier I asked which is the team of destiny to make the Superbowl and which to make the NFC Title game earlier. Well, since Arizona hadn’t won a home playoff game in 61 years and this will be the Eagles fifth NFC title game in eight seasons, it feels like Arizona’s destiny has already been met. I am taking Philly to win and to cover the four points they’re getting. It has been an unfathomable run for the Cardinals, but you can put asterisks next to both of their wins thus far (even if the win in Carolina was impressive).

Then again, this might be McNabb’s and Andy Reid’s fate: Relegated too good to great seasons but no Superbowl wins. To say the least, I can totally envision a scenario in which Arizona earns their trip to Tampa, but for a team that has won two games based on multiple freak occurrences that have constantly played in their favor, I have to take the Eagles.

AFC title preview tomorrow.

Something has happened in the past couple weeks that seems to have made Baltimore the overwhelming favorite to win this game. Not in Vegas, of course, but in the media and just general public perception. Go read a neutral message board where this game is the topic. Overwhelmingly it seems that everyone is favoring Balmer. No idea how this happened, but I imagine it has something to do with Kerry Collins and the last time he faced the Ravens in the post-season.

Baltimore’s Outlook: Sporting the best in insanely energetic and intimidating defenses, the Ravens have made a resurgence of sort by acquiring a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over once every three possessions (whudda thunk it?). This has seemed to ignite the rest of the team, knowing their not going to be crippled by the worst starter they have, who just happens to also play the most important position. It’s a new day in Baltimore.

This team, much like the Eagles and Chargers, are peaking at exactly the right time. There defense is almost guaranteed to force turnovers, and as stated above, with Kerry Collins at the helm for the opposing offense, I can understand why most in Baltimore are feeling confident. Great defense, multiple threats at running back and a serviceable passing game often make for a Superbowl champion.

However, there is this little notion of having a rookie quarterback that should put more on edge. Sure, he’s a vast improvement over Kyle Boller or or Anthony Wright or Chris Redman (basically any quarterback that has ever played for the Ravens not named Vinny Testaverde), but he’s still a rookie. Regardless of how promising he looks. And a rookie on the road against a statistically better defense than the one he plays with can often be cause for concern for a team in the post-season.

Tennessee’s Outlook: Best record in the NFL, top five running game, top three coach and top three defense, so why is everyone picking against them? Weak close to the season would be my best guess. Sure, some of it was malaise and injury (notably: Albert Haynesworth), but that is definitely going to alter the perception of everyone with an opinion. Those of you who were confident are a little shaken, and those who were skeptical have leaped off the bandwagon they were dangling from the edge of in the first place.

Still, this team manhandled the Steelers in week sixteen and one of their three losses on the season was to the Colts the following week, where they basically threw in the towel because they had already locked up the conference’s one seed for the playoffs. One would think that would be enough to keep the bandwagon strong, but longterm memories (and by longterm, I mean beyond the previous week) are non-existent in sports, especially the NFL. “What have you done for me lately” also translates loosely into, “was it done before or after your next opponent’s recent accomplishment? Because that determines who I’m picking”.

Baltimore beat a sorry Jags team in a must win week 17 situation and absolutely destroyed the Dolphins in their wild card game, so, that’s the common consensus. Baltimore will beat the Titans. But I think this is shortsighted. How much is the dismissal of Tennessee is substantive based and how much is reactionary and superficial? Tennessee, while having the second best defense all season, rarely forced turnovers. They’re almost completely devoid of a highlight reel for a season that has to be considered a resounding success. No Ed Reed’s or Ray Lewis’. The closest thing the Titans have to anyone like that is Haynesworth, and he’s a defensive tackle. There isn’t a lot of flash to be had at defensive tackle.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: What’s Vince Young’s mindset? How’s Vince Young reacting to his team accomplishing so much while he’s on the sideline? Can Vince Young rebound from the setback earlier in the season? Will Vince Young play? Is this team better with Collins next year? What if Collins struggles early, do they play Vince Young? You might have noticed that these are all mild variations on about two different subjects, and I wouldn’t expect anything different.

Fantasy Implications: Defenses should carry the day here. Your better off going with players at skill positions who aren’t facing such distinctly tough adversaries in the NFL.com Playoff Fantasy Challenge Extravaganza. LenDale White’s had three weeks off now, Lord knows what he’s going to look like coming out of the tunnel.

The Pick: Look, I’m just as frightful about the potential for another Baltimore Ravens Superbowl as anyone. The team is streaking, they seem to have a competent coach (this is the NFL right? How often do we see one competent coach replaced with another? This has to be considered a milestone), and every thing seems to simply be working in their favor. But I can’t ignore how dominant the Titans looked all season. These teams played week five in Baltimore, where the Titans won 13-10. A lot has changed since then, namely Collins and Flacco have had time to adapt to their current surroundings. Given that the game was played in Baltimore and Tennessee still won with a 40 year-old quarterback, I think I’m going with the minority and taking the Titans to win and cover.

As evidenced by when I am writing this, though, I am in no way confident about it. And yes, I am aware I am taking the favorites to win every game and to cover all but one of them, and that in a year with this much parity, that is extremely improbable. Fuck it, after last week I’m on tilt and almost have to do this.

Enjoy the games everyone.

I can’t believe this shit actually happened. I mean, I guess they’re both in the same division and perennial playoff contenders, and with the current unlucky streak I’m on I really shouldn’t be all that surprised. Only I could take a 20-1 bet with the returning Superbowl champs and have them square off against my team in their first playoff game. At least give me until the conference championship so I have some time to adjust. If the NFL had a modicum of sense to their playoff seeding I would be getting just that. Now, instead of playing the softness that is the Arizona Cardinals, the Giants are facing elimination against my half-heartedly beloved Eagles.

Philly’s Outlook: With a resurgence that I’m almost convinced Andy Reid stumbled into when he benched McNabb in the second half of that now infamous blowout they sustained against the Ravens, the Eagles look to repeat their performance against the Giants in week 14. Coming off an expected and rather convincing win against the Vikings, many believe this Eagles team is poised to make a 2007 Giants like run for the title.

We, however, are not buying it. As nice of a consolation prize as it would be to see the Eagles win the Superbowl in lieu of the Giants winning me $630 on a $30 bet, this team is extremely erratic offensively. My mind keeps going back to that 10-3 loss and how indicative it seemed of their whole season, especially since it was in between blowout wins against the Browns and Cowboys, two teams that were considered to be at opposite ends of the NFL talent spectrum. In short, they’re just too inconsistent. Of their sixteen regular season games, in all but five of them the Eagles scored either over 35 or under 20. Four of which were under 15 (Redskins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers) and another three met or exceeded 40 (Cardinals, Cowboys, Niners). That is a wide spectrum of teams for both circumstances.

Now, it goes without saying that it’s never a bad thing to score a lot of points. They were 5-1 in games over 35. But this is the Giants in the playoffs we’re talking about, does anyone see them putting up numbers even remotely comparable to that? There best bet is to play it close to the vest and keep the Giants number of possessions limited. Attempt to keep it a low scoring affair that doesn’t give them a chance to rile up the crowd. It’s obviously not an impossible feat (they split the season series with only 11 points dividing them) and I’d actually venture to say that a healthy amount of pundits are picking them to win this game, if not the majority. But when you have two teams that are evenly matched (at least when the Giants are banged up), I tend to side with whoever has the better game plan.

New York’s Outlook: Has a team that’s been so dominant throughout a season ever had so many questions surrounding them throughout the playoffs? Perhaps the biggest one: Have they recovered from not having Plaxico Burress to bail out their quarterback yet? We know the running game and defense will be replenished, but if Philly is able to blitz as successfully as they did against Minnesota and they force Manning into some errant passes…this game could (and probably should) really come down to the wire. Especially with the secondary the Eagles currently sport (it might be unpopular, but we deem it the best in the league).

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Is Plax still a distraction? Is Tom Coughlin’s coaching style suitable for such a tenuous situation? Will this game save Donovan in Philly? Will it save Andy Reid in Philly? Can McNabb turn this game into an endorsement for Swanson family dinners? Is Eli the better Manning brother? Can Brian Westbrook shoot fire out of his hands? Will Asante Samuel drop any key receptions? Seriously, how much does this team hate Tom Coughlin?

Fantasy Implications: I’m not going to comb over it again, but if fantasy football is still of concern for you, I really like a rested Brandon Jacobs and Kevin Boss to be key contributors in this game for the Giants. On the opposite side, if I like anyone it’s obviously Westbrook. And if you think the Eagles are going to win, for reasons stated above I like their defense. A lot. Their receivers (Brown, Jackson & Curtis) are the best McNabb has been dealt since 2003, but still too inconsistent and fucking tiny.

The Pick: Giants at -4? Ehh, I like New York to win but Philly to cover. It is mildly ironic I am not taking the favorite with the smallest line of the three we’ve seen so far, but remember I am doing this from most to least confident. And I’m not entirely sure why I have this rated as more confident that the Titans-Ravens game, as prognosticating it seems like a guaranteed losing proposition. I can see an Eagles win because they’re at their peak throughout the season, but I could see them losing because of inconsistency and questionable play calling.

I could see the Giants coming through with a win because they’re simply better coached and more talented than the Eagles, but I could also see them being upset because, I kid you not, they might be contemptuous that they have to play the Eagles in the first place. Considering Philly took Arizona behind the woodshed just over a month ago and they have a better record, no one would argue that the Giants are getting the raw end of the deal between them and Carolina. They’re probably wondering right now why they went to the trouble of forcing that game in week 16 into overtime. Given the circumstances, we’ll hedge our bets and make sure we’re right on at least one account. Expertise!

We’re going to attempt to follow the same format we used yesterday. If their is some innocuous difference in how we preview this game, then please, keep it to yourself or try to reconcile with the fact that we are more than aware of it, but we just didn’t care.

Also, The only reason this game is rated higher on our competitiveness scale is we give much more credence to the win over the Colts than Arizona’s win over Atlanta. Indy was a better team than the Falcons throughout the season, they played a better game than Atlanta in the wild card match-up and just in tone and tenor it felt a little less fluky.

San Diego’s Outlook: Much to my surprise, people are picking the Chargers to win this game outright. Apparently if you can run with Darren Sproles against Indy, you can run against a record setting defense. Now, we’ve been hinting at Sproles being the better option in the backfield than Tomlinson since roughly week eight or nine. And some might say he proved it on Saturday night. While he did look impressive and he could quite possibly be an elevated degree of the diminutive running back trend we’ve seen in the NFL this season, it doesn’t mean he’s going to run against the Steelers.

Why so pessimistic? One reason, really: Nobody runs against the Steelers. It doesn’t make much sense to me to suspect that a warm weather west coast team is going to travel east to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in January and pull out a win. It just doesn’t. Particularly when the east coast team won four more games during the regular season. the Indy win was great and all, but Indy is/was a finesse team. Pitt is a bruising, hard nose, “we’d only wear leather helmets if we could” old school team. Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jerome Harrison? That’s an entirely different ball of yarn than Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Gary Brackett.

That said, no team offense and no quarterback has been moving the ball downfield better than the Chargers (well, except maybe the Patriots. Ahem). Phillip Rivers has been the best quarterback in the league for the last month and assuming they play with Vincent Jackson, they’ll be able to spread the field and maybe put a dent in that Pittsburgh defense. It is somewhat trite to say, but if their defense forces some turnovers (because their defense isn’t good enough to continually force the Steelers to punt), they can come out of Steel town with a W.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: With a team that’s as focused and virulent as the Steelers, there is never a question as to whether they’re going to forget their objective because of a week off. They won’t. I’ll never understand why the Steelers organization is so much better ran than everyone else in the NFL, but I imagine it has something to do with coaching. Mike Tomlin was a strong hire to continue the Chuck Nohl, Bill Cowher mindset.

In other words, the Steelers typically do not lose games like this. If they’re involved in a game where there is a clear cut favorite and an upset takes place, they’re just about always the ones doing the upsetting. I wouldn’t expect anything different this week especially with the circumstances being what they are.

On the other side of the coin, however, the offense this season has been the epitome of inconsistence. If you look at their point totals for the season, you have to imagine that if they go into this game and can’t regularly move the ball downfield, things have the potential to become much more challenging than they should be.

Roethlisberger, for as great of a winning percentage as he has and for as great as he can look any given week, is just not the quarterback everyone wants him to be. Pittsburgh is, was and always will be a run first offense. He is best used in small, efficient doses (limited passing attempts for big chunks of yardage and a couple touchdowns). That isn’t to say he isn’t serviceable or even very good. But he isn’t Joe Montana or John Elway or even Phillip Rivers.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: How will Big Ben recover from his concussion? Can Darren Sproles repeat his performance? Can the vaunted Pitt defense “find” Sproles behind the offensive line? Will Vincent Jackson’s DUI be a distraction for the underdog? I think the only way to settle these and more is to have a hyper, inarticulate discussion riddled with insider jokes between Chris Berman and a slew of former players.

Fantasy Implications: Just like yesterday and for every other game this weekend, there really isn’t any. But if you want recommendations for NFL.com’s fantasy playoff challenge extravaganza, I like Antonio Gates to blow up as he’ll be used to bail out Rivers several times I’m sure. A healthy Willie Parker isn’t going to do you wrong, either. Also, if someone puts a keg and a couple Patron bottles in the end zone, Vincent Jackson might be setting all kinds of records. Someone has to take the initiative, though. Those bottles aren’t going to buy themselves, people.

The Pick: Ugh, I hate to do this for the second game in a row, but six doesn’t seem like a big enough spread. We have to take the Steelers to win outright and to cover, because if you look at who they have lost to during the season, two of the teams were 12-4 (Giants, Colts), one was 13-3 (Titans) and the other was the Eagles (who are arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment). As much as I may want to (and you have no idea how much I want to), I just can’t see San Diego following up last week’s performance on the road. Outside of the superior passing game, the only thing San Diego has going for it is Darren Sproles’ low center of gravity. He’ll be able to eat up the slop that is Heinz field better than most.

Back with more tomorrow.

So what we’ve decided to do for the playoffs is to compound everything about each game into a single post, in order of the least to most competitive game (as seen through our prism), giving us cannon fodder from now until Friday. Yeah, we have no idea what we’re going to do for next week.

As a side note, it is requiring every ounce of strength I have to not pontificate on everything that was wrong with Ohio State last night. Hopefully, for your sake and mine, this will be the last I mention it.

Arizona’s Outlook: With a spread of -10, it doesn’t look like Arizona is getting much credit for their win against Atlanta. As well they shouldn’t. Arizona deserved the win, but they were playing at home against (despite how impressive he’s been) a rookie quarterback, and 23 of their 30 points could best be summarized as flukes. A two point conversion, a weird mid-air fumble recovery by Antrel Rolle returned for a touchdown, a flea flicker touchdown in which the flea flicker had absolutely no baring on the outcome of the play and a missed tackle that resulted in a 50 yard scamper after the catch. Even after all this and two more turnovers, Arizona only won by six at home.

Next week, one would probably assume they won’t be quite so fortunate. Because seldom has it been that any team has gotten so many breaks in a single contest. Not to mention they’re playing on the road in what will be (relative to Arizona) a cold weather game against a veteran savvy team. Luckily for them, that team is the Panthers and not the Giants. If they were going to the Meadowlands instead of whatever the name is for the Panthers stadium, they’d be dead in the snow before th game ever started. Because you know, Kurt Warner reacts to snow like Wolverine to magnets.

Still, if they manage to pull off what I would qualify as a bigger upset than the Giants beating the Patriots in the Superbowl, and the Eagles also win (which everyone seems to be convinced is a distinct possibility), they get to play the NFC title game at home. That’s right. A 9-7 divisional champion will be blessed with a home conference title match-up because of the antiquated and illogical NFL playoff structure.

So, they at least have a lot to play for.

Carolina’s Outlook: Rested, rejuvenated and seemed to be peaking at the right time. Thing is though, for team’s like Carolina I tend to think that the bye week hurts them more so than it helps. This is a team that was fairly inconsistent for the first half of the season, and managed to find some sort of groove with letting DeAngelo Williams’ recently morphed and ‘roided out freak body dictate the terms of the offense and falling back on the passing game when need be. Now, with a week off and a litany of over-confidence going into this week’s game, they could let this one slip away.

That said, I wouldn’t expect that to happen. They’re playing at home, where they’re undefeated against a team that was 3-5 on the road (and all three wins came against divisional opponents, none of whom finished better than 7-9, and they beat San Fran first game of the season when they still had Mike Nolan), snuck into the playoffs by virtue of being in a shitty division and whom many considered to be among the worst NFL playoff teams in the history of NFL playoffs.

In short, the only way Carolina is losing this game is if they fail to take the Cardinals seriously. Given it’s the NFL playoffs we know crazier things have happened. Like Arizona winning last week’s wild card game. Alright, that’s not crazier, but the manner in which they did so was the football equivalent of the Joker’s cruise ship caper.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Can Kurt Warner return to the Superbowl one last time? Can Steve Smith refrain from knocking the shit out of his teammates? Can Edgerrin James make himself relevant? Can Tim Hightower break a tackle? Just how good of friends are Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin? Does Anquan Boldin get hit by the truck, or the truck hit by Boldin? None of these are really intriguing, but throw some up-tempo music into a montage with some sleek looking graphics, and we have a story!

Fantasy Implications: Basically, there are none. But since the URL is talking fantasy football, we have to at least pretend to make an effort. If you’re still alive in the NFL.com 2008 fantasy playoff challenge extravaganza not only can you go fuck yourself, but I would also acquire DeAngelo Williams if you have the means to do so. To be frank, we consider the 42 yards and one touchdown the Cardinals held Michael Turner an aberration, Williams will break off at least two scores against this team. And call me crazy, but since this game is at home I like Muhsin Muhammad as a relative dark horse. He should be fairly cheap.

On the Arizona side of the ball, if you’re going to play anyone, Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald seem to be the only two viable options. Growing up and attending school at FSU, much like his quarterback it would seem that Anquan Boldin never really learned how to perform in cold weather. There won’t be snow on the ground or anything (at least there shouldn’t be), but a cool breeze seems like it could turn him into Freddie Mitchell. I have no idea how this guy can endure a hit like the one he did against the Jets but struggle so mightily in non-ideal climate conditions, but that’s the scenario we’re in.

The Pick: If you couldn’t tell from the fucking screed we’ve produced here, we’re taking Carolina to win. We lied earlier, the line is actually 9.5, and if we we’re going to bet against it, Carolina is still the pick. I’m sorry, but this Cardinals team is about as uninspiring as a playoff team could be. Which I imagine was hard for them to pull off, consider the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game in over a decade.

Back tomorrow with another preview.

So you may have noticed the site acting a tad wonky as of late, obviously this is beyond my control (and apparently beyond my employers) but technical issues have been plaguing not just this site, but the entire network. Thankfully this is, you know, a fantasy football site. And no one is really playing in a real fantasy football league at the moment.

Never the less, this proved costly (or as costly as a inaccessible blog can be) because I never got to publicly make my picks for yesterday’s games. Well, let me kill the suspense: I lost. On both accounts. I could lie, but if you’ve picked up on the tone and tenor of this site, you could probably determine that I was going to pick both Atlanta and Indianapolis to cover their 1 point spreads. It is a tad ironic though. Not being able to post my lines and everything. Because I actually had a friend in Vegas lay down a parlay for me with all four playoff games. For once I actually have money on the games slated for the weekend, and I am unable to pontificate about them on this here site.

Anyhow, as far as the Atlanta game is concerned, I threw out the old “NFC South sucks donkey dick on the road” credo in favor of the “The Cardinals are inept against anyone who isn’t in their own shittastic division” theory. This seemed reasonable. Mind you, Minnesota blew the doors off of Arizona’s defense in Glendale just four weeks ago. I assumed with Atlanta having a balanced offensive attack that hinged on the run, they would be able to get the job done at University of Phoenix Stadium (handily the worst named sporting venue this side of Papa John’s Stadium).

As it turned out, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Their offense looked sporadic and downright frightened at times. I could get into all the reasons as to why I feel slighted as a result of this game, but without getting too technical, let me just say this: It took not only a safety, two sixty yard plus touchdowns and a defensive touchdown for the Cardinals to win, but also the greatest game ever played by the Cardinals in the franchise’s history in Phoenix. I should have known I was fucked when everyone on CBS’ pregame picked the Cardinals to win except for Matt Millen. You know you’re in trouble when the architect of the first and only 0-16 team in the league’s history is agreeing with you.

As for last night’s primetime game, it was yet another playoff failure by the Colts who always seemed to go unnoticed because they won one Superbowl. This marks only the second time I’ve bet on Peyton Manning and the Colts to win, and also the second time they disappointed me (2005 against the Steelers in the playoffs was the first, I found the schmuckiest of Steelers fans to give me Indy at even money).

What specifically happened in this game? Other than Sproles proved himself to be an every-down back and officially surpassed Tomlinson as the better option and it ended in overtime? I have no idea since I was busy eating and carousing at Elevator and didn’t watch it all that closely. (Mmmm, Crab Manicotti). But we should really stop acting surprised when the Colts loses in the playoffs. Going all the way back to the 2001 season when a Chad Pennington Jets team curb-stomped them in the wild card round to the tune of 41-0, Indy has usually been a disappointment.

If you’re wondering why I went with the Colts over San Diego, the answer is quite simple: San Diego hasn’t beaten anyone good all season. They’ve had some horrendous home losses and their defense is still pretty soft. But being at home against an Indy team that appears to be running on fumes (see the much narrower than the 31-21 score against the Lions would lead you to believe). Basically, if I had any foresight or an ounce of originality in my body, I would have went with San Diego. But I don’t, so I didn’t.

Anyhow, that’s 0-2, killing our dream of 11-0 for 2008 pretty hastily. If you want to know who to bet against for this afternoon’s games, I am taking Philly at -3 and Miami at +3.5 (the former seems to be much more popular of a sentiment that the latter).

That’s pretty much it. We’ll get back to some fantasy commentary come tomorrow morning.

Here’s the second slate of games for the last weekend of the NFL regular season. I can’t really call it the second “half”, because their is only six of them. Thank the NFL and their absurd scheduling for this gross inequity in the two posts. I’m not assuming blame for this. See this? (rubs hands together vigorously) This is me washing my hands of the situation. I will not be held responsible.

Home teams in CAPS.

NEW YORK JETS -3 Miami
Line Pick: I know New York is destined to win this game, just to piss me off, but good lord have they looked terrible. Are they getting three just because there will probably be snow on the ground? That seems awfully tentative. I guess I’ll go with common consensus just because the Jets couldn’t sink any lower than they have, and they have won games against New England and Tennessee. But I do not feel good about it. At all.

Fantasy Advice: I would not suspect anyone other than Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones are going to have solid fantasy games here. Maybe Dustin Keller or Coles will do right by you, but it doesn’t really feel like it has the makings of a high scoring game.

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 Dallas
Line Pick: This is a brutal game to pick. Both are going to go full throttle. Just because. Not for any particular or tangible reason (though I suppose Dallas could still make the playoffs, I have no idea what the tiebreakers are and everything). The only team with playoff talent that is more finicky than Dallas is Philadelphia, but Philly’s at home and it should be in extreme conditions…We’ll take Philly to cover, mostly because we want to see Dallas barred from the post-season. Not because we have any strong convictions one way or the other.

Fantasy Advice: Philly has a top three secondary and a questionable run defense, so go with Tashard Choice assuming Barber is still sidelined. Owens’ vindictiveness is unparallel, so you might see him break off a long overdue two touchdown game. Witten should have a big game because Philly’s linebackers do not offer much in the way of pass coverage. Otherwise…I think you’re looking at a standard fantasy guessing game. Curtis and DeSean Jackson are both worth considering, but look at Philly’s point totals for the past six games: 13, 7, 48, 20, 30 & 3. It warrants mentioning that the only two home games in that mix were the 30 & 48, but those were against Cleveland and Arizona. As much as we like to mock Dallas’ defense, they run circles around the two of them.

Basically what I’m saying is, I have no idea what the fuck I’m talking about.

ARIZONA -6 Seattle
Line Pick: Wow. I guess I have to take Seattle given how Arizona has looked as of late. But have the Cardinals sunk so low that they can’t find the heart to beat a team in their own beshitted division? I think they may have. And anyhow, they can still win, just by less than two field goals. They only beat the Seahawks by six in Seattle, and that was a month and a half ago when people were still buying into the Cardinals as a legitimate playoff contender. Yeah, we’re feeling confident in the Seahawks now. Nice job, Cardinals.

Fantasy Advice: Despite the pick of the Seahawks, we like virtually every startable Cardinal to produce. Unless they’re playing the Vikings, they seem to be a little more comfortable at home. Or rather, they look like they’re in outer space when on the road. Which is ironic, because I’m pretty sure that dome they play in used to orbit the moon. On the Seahawks side of the ball, everyone and no one is viable. This Cardinals defense could give up 40 to the Lions at this point, but we’re still talking about Seneca Wallace here. Despite the piss poor defense, I’d be hunting for alternatives.

SAN FRANSISCO -3 Washington
Line Pick: I’m taking the Niners specifically because they’re not the team traveling cross country. I think this game will prove just how inexplicable every game the Eagles play seems to be and confirm Mike Singletary’s return to San Fran next year where he can set the blog world ablaze with his unorthodox motivation tactics, and insipid reporters can ask him awkward an misinformed questions about his departed idols.

Fantasy Advice: I don’t really have any sleepers to recommend, unless you still consider Isaac Bruce a sleeper. I don’t think you can, since he has managed to crack 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games, and he broke ten fantasy points in the other two he didn’t manage a touchdown. If you have any faith in a Washington offensive player that isn’t named Clinton Portis, then you’re a better man than I.

BALTIMORE -12.5 Jacksonville
Line Pick: I think with San Diego now having a chance to make the playoffs and the Browns residing in Cleveland, we can safely say that Jacksonville was the biggest disappointment of the season. A 12.5 point dog to a team with a rookie quarterback, and to be honest, I don’t know if it is big enough. Last year, in this same situation, I don’t think Balmer even scores 13 points, now they’re favored to win by that much. Unreal. And yeah, we’re picking the Ravens.

Fantasy Advice: So it appears I can’t mock Jacksonville receivers anymore. At least not Dennis Northcutt at home against the softest defense making the playoffs this side of Arizona, San Diego & Denver. So yeah, we expect him to be shutdown and shutout, because he’s their best option now. We tend to think even Jones-Drew is going to struggle in this game, despite getting all the carries because Fred Taylor finally remembered he’s in his fifties. The Ravens are supporting a healthy stable of running backs that are sure to see a lot of yards and a lot of carries. And based on Reggie Wayne finally producing last week, we like Derrick Mason and Michael Clayton to have similar performances.

SAN DIEGO -8 Denver
Line Pick: The Sunday night game couldn’t be more appropriate. Two underachieving teams struggling to win the second worst division in football. We like the Chargers to ultimately win this, but 8 is entirely too high. Denver is still coached by Mike Shanahan and they still have Jay Cutler. Not to mention that San Diego is a tad prone to losing home games in dramatic (traumatic?) fashion. Yeah, they really should pull out the W if for no other reason than their defense can occasionally (if infrequently) make a stop. When they played at the beginning of the season Denver won by a single point at 39-38, not that much has changed. San Diego to win, Denver to cover.

Fantasy Advice: I’m not sure what the fantasy equivalent of “bet the farm” is, but do that. Anyone whose anyone I would start in this game. Except for the defenses, of course.

That’s it for the week, enjoy the games. We’ll be back on Monday to do a retrospective of sorts.

Alright, we managed to find the time to post the first half of our picks today. So brace yourselves, the holidays are about to get explicit. And by explicit, I mean slightly sarcastic and pessimistic. Oh yeah, it’s going to be crazy.

Also, I know the holidays are a time for self-reflection and giving. So I would just like that reflect on the fact that I went 11-5 last week, and give anyone who actually reads this site some more advice to put them in the red. We didn’t do so hot in the Sunday afternoon-Monday night games (a shittastic 3-4), but damn near swept the Thursday night-early Sunday games (a virile 8-1, God damn, Niners. I’m probably the first person all season that this team actually induced anger rather than pity from).

That brings our season (AKA five week) record to 43-33-4. I know it’s completely invalid to make exceptions like this, but if you took out our one losing week, we’d be sporting a 38-24-2 record. Not to be too self-aggrandizing, but if you had put $50 on every game and taken our picks for those four weeks and for some reason didn’t heed our advice in week 15, you’d be up a little less than $700. Again, you’re welcome.

Anyhow, onto the picks. These are always tentative because you have to adjust your expectations based on who is going to rest their starters and who isn’t. Usually you can make an educated guess, as an example: I suspect this Titans-Colts game might be a race to see whose least interested in winning. I certainly wouldn’t use it as a barometer for whose going to the Superbowl.

ATLANTA -14.5 St. Louis
Line Pick: This Rams team has really been pissing me off as of late. I don’t think I’ve correctly picked for or against them in the past three weeks, and its usually been some fluky bullshit as to why not. But with Atlanta soundly in the playoffs, I think I like St Louis to cover. That is lacking confidence to be sure, because this Rams team is awful and the Falcons might want to put on a spectacle for the home crowd. But St. Louis is going to be trying, as they seem to like Jim Haslett enough to want to convince management to keep him around. I have no idea how you justify that, though. Either putting money on this or keeping Haslett.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I like Jerious Norwood to just wreck this already hobbling St. Louis defense. While Atlanta might want to win convincingly, there is no doubt in my mind that their going to play it safe with both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If you are actively participating in a championship game, bench virtually everyone whose isn’t in a contest contingent on making the playoffs. On the St. Louis side I can’t recommend anyone. There are too many available replacement players and backups that would serve you better than anything the Rams can guarantee.

New England -6.5 BUFFALO
Line Pick: Now this is dicey. I could totally see a scenario where Buffalo closes out the season being bracket buster to both the Patriots and the Broncos, getting their fans all riled up as the season winds down, then either moving to Toronto or having an epic collapse from their current state of mediocrity in 2009. On the other hand, this is the Patriots competing for a playoff spot against a team that is 1-5 in division. We’ll take the Pats to win by roughly ten or twelve, and get snubbed from the playoffs while a team they trounced last week by 37 hosts a wild card game.

Fantasy Advice: I don’t know, we’ll definitely find out how similar to Tom Brady Matt Cassel can be in this game. Basically you can’t go wrong with any of the stalwarts in this game. But since they run four different running backs and are playing a team a tad more interested than the Cardinals, I’d stay away from all of them. Also, I’m a little concerned about the Bills. I have no idea the strength of Belichick’s will, and if he wants to clobber his opponent in this game just so he and Boston Sports Nation can get all petulant about not being in the playoffs, then I’m afraid that is completely possible. Much like the Rams, I’d probably avoid every player on the Bills.

CINCINNATI -3 Kansas City
Line Pick: These are two teams that have looked a little more lively just in time for the season to end. We have no idea how motivated either of them are going to be, but we’ll take the Chiefs solely because they’re getting points. Also, Cinncy might be a little over-confident after being the fifth consecutive defense to shut out the Browns. I wish I was kidding.

Fantasy Advice: This seems like the type of game that Housh would shine in, and that KC defense has a lot of holes. You probably aren’t going to go wrong with either him or Benson. For KC, do we have any idea who there go to guy in the backfield is? Is it Larry Johnson? I swear I haven’t heard his name mentioned for about two months now. Go Dwayne Bowe or do not even bother with this team.

GREEN BAY -9.5 Detroit
Line Pick: The sadists game of the week. We do not care how bad this Lions team is, we expect them to at least come out of the gate with some intensity. Hopefully that will carry over into the second half. We’ll take them to cover, and potentially (but probably not) beat a Green Bay team that just might consider the 2008 affair a disappointment. I can’t bet on this game, though. It feels immoral. Almost like wagering on bum fights or something.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Smith should be useful, as should Calvin Johnson. We don’t want to get to excited with recommending you start Detroit Lions, though. For the Packers, as is the case with every team playing the Lions, everyone is a viable candidate. With Green Bay’s receivers, it’s tough to pick just one. We say you hedge your bets on this. If you have Greg Jennings, also plug in James Jones to improve your position with Aaron Rodgers.

Tennessee -3 INDIANAPOLIS
Line Pick: This might be the closest thing to a circus we’ve seen from two playoff bound teams. Both Jeff Fisher and Tony Dungy are way too pragmatic to actually give a shit about making a week 17 “statement”. Let me put it this way, whoever wins this game will probably lose if they square off again in the post-season. At least if both teams are trying. Since Indy seems to have struggled regularly with pedestrian teams (Lions, Jags, Browns, Chargers, Texans), well take the Titans to cover. Though there is no way we’re taking Indy to beat them in the playoffs so don’t listen to us. We’re a walking bag of contradictions.

Fantasy Advice: Anthony Gonzalez. That’s all I’m going to say for the Colts. He seems to be their only offensive weapon that is listed as questionable/probable/doubtful every week, so the risk in playing him is considerably lower. Also: Dallas Clark. Who was for this the first time since his injury listed as questionable for last weeks game against the Jags. As a result he ripped off over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. For the Titans, this might be a LenDale White special. If it starts to get embarrassing (for him and the Titans), they might put in a third stringer or even Johnson for a handful of carries. Really, though, I like White going against this run defense.

MINNESOTA -6.5 New York Giants
Line Pick: Uhhh, I know they’ve clinched everything but this is still the Giants that the Vikings are playing, right? You know, the same Giants that went full throttle in week 17 against the Pats last year even though they couldn’t improve their position as the 6th seed in the NFC. Given, the circumstances are different. But the idea of the Giants being a 6.5 point dog is a little too much for me to accept when Tavaris Jackson is quarterbacking the opposing team. I’ll roll the dice on the team that has nothing to play for, simply because I think should they meet again, the Giants would rather play the Bears than a team with Adrian Peterson coming out of the backfield.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Adrian Peterson, of course. Ahmad Bradshaw (who’s a perfectly suitable starter, much less a backup) should see a lot more carries than usual. Derrick Ward needs 52 yards to break 1,000, so that might be incentive for Coughlin to play him more than he should, unless the front office intervenes because there’s a bonus to be had if he breaks that milestone. It’s a judgment call, really. I also like both tight ends for differing reasons.

Carolina -3 NEW ORLEANS
Line Pick: Yeah, we like New Orleans to win this outright. We still are not all that enamored of Carolina, especially on the road. And New Orleans is still trying to put Drew Brees over the 5,000 yard mark for the season. Not to mention they’re 6-1 at home (accounting for all but one of their wins) and have an offense that’s as potent as any in the league. Oh, and Carolina’s coming off a game where they gave up over 300 yards on the ground. I don’t care who you are, if you’re giving up that many rushing yards, then I expect to see a Lions or Chiefs logo next to your name, not an emblem that indicates you’ve already clinched a playoff spot.

Fantasy Advice: Everyone seems to be a viable candidate in this game. I would steer clear of Jonathan Stewart, however. I know the Saints have a shaky run defense, but he’s not exactly himself without the cozy confines of whatever you call the stadium the Panthers play in. But yeah, Thomas, Williams, Smith, Muhammad, Moore, Colston: You have the green light on all of them.

PITTSBURGH -10.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: I have no idea if the Steelers are still playing for anything and frankly I don’t care. Not only are they at home and these two are pretend rivals, Cleveland couldn’t muster a single field goal against the Bengals in their own stadium, much less a touchdown. I fully expect the Browns to finish this season without having scored and offensive touchdown in the last six weeks of it. My God. You know, I am always hesitant to claim something best/worst of all time, usually because it sounds simple-minded and impossible to quantify. But with Ken Dorsey lining up under center, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team worse than these Cleveland Browns. And yes, I am including this years Lions, who I think would mop the floor with Cleveland if they were fortunate enough to be playing them on Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Whichever Steelers running back is healthy because everyone will want to get this over and done with as quickly as possible. If Cleveland is going to score, it won’t be via Braylon Edwards that does it. I do not like any of these players going up against Pittsburgh’s defense, but you might be able to find a dark horse in Josh Cribbs or Jerome Harrison. Especially if Crennel would go out with a little foresight and given his options, play Cribbs at quarterback. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

TAMPA BAY -13 Oakland
Line Pick: Much to our chagrin, JaMarcus Russell has looked surprisingly adequate the past couple weeks. But with Tampa vying for a playoff spot at home I have to take them to cover. Especially since they lost 34-7 in the last road game they played. And that was just down the coastline. Oakland is traveling cross country and playing a 1PM EST game. That’s just cruel.

Fantasy Advice: Well, all of a sudden Tampa is running three running backs between Dunn, Graham and Williams. So your guess is as good as mine. Antonio Bryant is the closest thing to a lock on this Buccaneers team. Take that for what its worth. On Oakland: No one. Unless Johnnie Lee Higgins comes through for all us loyal members of Raider nation.

HOUSTON -2.5 Chicago
Line Pick: Houston seems to be one of the few teams that excels at home compared to on the road, but the Bears are playing for the playoffs. In short, I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Just because it wouldn’t make any sense based on what happened in week 16, I’m taking the Texans to cover and follow through on the back-to-back 8-8 seasons that I’m sure Texans fans fucking love. But this is one game I’d avoid like the Sex and The City movie.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson always perform. Even against defenses as staunch as Chicago’s. Ironically we’d stay away from Matt Schaub, as we see him throwing 2-3 interceptions this game. Matt Forte is about the only player on Chicago anyone can ever recommend. If anyone ever tells you to start Devin Hester and attempts to give some long-winded explanation as to why, stop him in his tracks and tell him he’s an asshole. This might seem harsh, but there is no reason for anyone to ever have a “hunch” about someone like Devin Hester on this Bears team. Greg Olsen is pretty much the only other player you can take a risk on.

Alright, that’s it for the 1PM games. 4PM and prime timers later today.

Well, we actually covered last night, but how in the world was it so close? Indy’s supposed to be one of three teams in the AFC with a legitimate shot at winning the Superbowl, not someone who needs 4th quarter rallies and blind luck to beat a teams like the Jags and Lions. But anyhow, from a fantasy perspective, it was a good night for your truly. I was sporting a Dallas Clark, Peyton Manning & Maurice Jones-Drew combination the likes of which I haven’t seen all season.

We’ll put this in perspective: in an average week, you’re all but guaranteed to win your game if you can amass upwards of around 140 points (I think only twice has someone eclipsed this number and still lost). After the performances of those three, I am currently on pace to score 250. Sorry for the bit of self-aggrandizement, but I’m sure some of you can also feel quite content about the onslaught of fantasy production last night.

Alright, only seven afternoon/Sunday/Monday night games. Whenever I write this post, I tend to wear out towards the end. Because at the very least, the manner in which we doll out fantasy advice is the same for each game, just with different names. Really, I can’t imagine there is anything I could say that will change your mind, so I just mail in some bullshit about what I expect to happen in each game, which is no more or less valid than anyone else’s bullshit. So, with that said, here’s my line picks and some fantasy “analysis” that took us roughly five minutes to conjure up.

DENVER -7 Buffalo
Line Pick: So, the Broncos are supposed to cover a touchdown with that defense. Am I missing something? I know Buffalo isn’t making the playoffs, but have they been getting blown out by average teams lately? Their last three losses have been 27-31, 16-3 and 10-3. The 16-3 game came at the hands of the Dolphins, and I’m willing to bet that Denver’s defense hasn’t held anyone under 29 points all season. I’ll take the points, though it seems too obvious.

Fantasy Advice: With that said, Cutler has been deadly at mile high and they’re starting to run thin at running back with their backup fullback now out for the season. If you want to gamble on Tatum Bell, be my guest. But you deserve to have your luggage stolen if you do. Buffalo is a sea of unreliable middle-tier players (Even Marshawn Lynch only has 7 touchdowns). But going against Denver, it’s a fire sale. I’d start Brandom Stokley if it wasn’t for my bias against white receivers not named Wayne Chrebet or Wes Welker.

Houston -7 OAKLAND
Line Pick: Well, I guess I have to start taking Houston seriously now. Seven points against the Raiders? Sounds like a go. On a side note, who the hell are the Raiders going to draft this off-season? Michael Crabtree? James Lauranitis? Some lineman we can’t name at the moment? Is there an aspect of their team that doesn’t need addressing? Personally, if I’m a Raiders fan, I like the notion of taking a quarterback as a second or third round pick. Just not Tebow in the first round (which given the way management has drafted, is something you might see yourself worrying about).

Fantasy Advice: Yeah, everyone involved with the Texans passing game and Steve Slaton are mandatory starts, Oakland is a wasteland for fantasy football. We’ve made similar statements about other teams and players yesterday, but if you would consider starting any Raiders, you probably aren’t still in the playoffs anyhow. So don’t worry about it.

New York Jets -4.5 SEATTLE
Line Pick: Hmm, the Jets have been trudging along these past three weeks, in fact the only reason they haven’t lost three in a row was Buffalo inexplicably squandered away a win against them last Sunday. Actually, forget that. Buffalo squandering away wins is kind of there MO. There is nothing inexplicable about it. But still, this is the Seahawks we’re talking about. Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, it might be good enough to beat the Rams in St. Louis, but if Favre loses this week 16 game in a tight playoff race, it might the last nail that finally motivates him to hang it up. And since we’re convinced he’s never going to retire, we like the Jets to cover.

Fantasy Advice: I guess we can officially say we drafted Thomas Jones in the second round a year too early. It’s amazing what having a healthy threat at quarterback can do for a running back’s numbers, isn’t it? Anyhow, I like him and Leon Washington this week, along with Dustin Keller. On the Seahawks side of the ball: see my overview of the Raiders. Alright, maybe Deon Branch is a reasonable option, but we recommend against it.

MINNESOTA -3.5 Atlanta
Line Pick: We’re still waiting for this Vikings team to drop a tough game, but it has been four weeks now and every win has been convincing. We are hesitant to take any NFC South team on the road as stated ad nauseam here. What I need is a moment of clarity with this one.
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Alright, I’ll take Atlanta to cover but for Minnesota to win. Two teams that primarily run the ball and play relatively physical defense, a close margin of victory seems plausible, if not probable. Even still, just stay away from this one unless you’re on some sort of Nick Cage in Leaving Las Vegas conclusion.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I hate stating the obvious but both running backs are a go. Speaking of which, I like Adrian Peterson as the MVP this year, especially if they end up winning the division. The guy is probably going to break 1,600 yards with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson as his quarterback. Every team knows he’s running the ball, and yet virtually no team has been able to stop him. In short, he isn’t the standard, expendable running back that could be replaced with a 4th round draft pick in 2009. He’s a game changer, the likes of which I don’t think we’ve seen since Barry Sanders (though they have completely different running styles). Usually it’s about the machine, but in this case, Peterson is the machine.

Philadelphia -5 WASHINGTON
Line Pick: Why the hell is this a 4PM game? Anyway, outside of the NFC South teams, virtually everyone in the NFL is comparable on the road vs. at home, except for Washington. This team seems to be considerably worse when playing at RFK or whatever it’s called now. Still, Philly — despite three impressive wins in a row now — doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me; but we don’t seem to have any other options. I hate to make such an uninspired prediction, but we’ll take the Eagles to cover five against the Redskins.

Fantasy Advice: Washington is turning into what everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season (Plug in “We are who we thought they were!” jokes here). And last time they played Philly, the Eagles completely shut out Santana and most of the passing game, except for Cooley. I like Cooley and potentially Portis if anyone can guarantee that he won’t walk onto the field dressed like Greenman. For the Eagles, they seemed to spread the ball around a little more against Cleveland, but like we mentioned earlier this week, Cleveland can make anyone look like a pro-bowler. Stick with the stalwarts (basically just Westbrook), and maybe Curtis or Jackson if you’re feeling frisky. Hey, what does Reggie Brown have to do to get cut from this team? He’s in James Thrash/Todd Pinkston territory at this point.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Yeah, they’ve let me down the past couple weeks, but Carolina’s bandwagon is mighty crowded right now. To be quite honest we’re surprised the Panthers aren’t favored. But Vegas appears to know better, and that the skewed perception of them is the result of two home blowouts against Tampa and Denver, and a road win against an apparently overrated Green Bay team, though it was impressive at the time. Still, there are a lot of caveats to these games that make the wins look much more impressive than they really are. Namely, the Packers blow and Carolina is 8-0 at home to explain the two most recent wins. In fact they haven’t had a close game yet against any respectable team on the road, which is what the Giants are with or without Burress. We’ll lay the points and expect the Giants to reclaim their thrown as front runners.

Fantasy Advice: I like Williams, Jacobs and Ward a lot more than I like Jonathan Stewart, who personifies Carolina’s struggles away from Charlotte. Hixon and Toomer should be serviceable. Or rather, if the Giants are actually going to cover three points, they’re going to have to be. I’d stay away from Muhsin Muhammad if at all possible (note: we don’t think it’s possible for us) and whatever wide outs Carolina is sporting not named Steve Smith; as we’re inclined to think Delhomme wets the bed on Sunday night.

Chicago -4 Green Bay
Line Pick: Did Matt Forte break his fibula last game? Why is this only four, especially with some of the less favorable lines the Pack have been getting against lesser opponents? Something’s afoot, or maybe it’s just the snowfall in the desert that’s fucking with everyone. Oh, that’s why. Right before Green Bay began this descent into complete shittery they shellacked the Bears 37-3 and everyone was declaring them the best team in the NFC not in the East. Anyhow, we’re still taking Chicago to dish out some comeuppance from that ridiculous performance.

Fantasy Advice: I’d stay away from Donald Driver (Again, I don’t know if we can) and anyone not named Greg Jennings on the Packers. Chicago doesn’t offer much other than Forte in the way of fantasy either. Put it this way, if you’re relying on this game to amount in a fantasy comeback for you, then I recommend watching a movie while it’s on.

Alright, that’s probably it for the week. Enjoy the games should we part ways until Monday.

Last week really brought us back down to earth on these line assessments. We mentioned it on Monday and we’re still stinging. If I repeat that performance I might as well discontinue my stint on this site. Regardless of the circumstances that was inexcusable. I guess since I must, here’s my record from last week: 5-9-2, bringing our season total to: 32-28-4 after four weeks of doing this. We need to get to at least…8 games over .500 by the end of the season to maintain our non-existent reputation. It’s really important to us.

Anyhow, onto our picks. I get the feeling we’ll rue the day we ever decided to do this, much less suggest that picking games later in the season is easier than at the beginning of it. What we meant was, wait a few weeks before you start hastily throwing money around. The last two weeks are particularly difficult because no one has any idea which teams are going to bench which players for preservation. Perhaps we should have been clearer.

Indianapolis -6 JACKSONVILLE
Line Pick: Well, shit. If Jacksonville had lost last week it would make it a lot easier to pick against them. And we know they’re bad. The only thing we’re left wondering as a result of that is how bad are the Packers? We’re going with pretty fucking terrible because we’re still taking Indy to cover this game, despite needing the length of the game to beat the Lions last week. If it was eight, I would have gone with Jax, but it’s not plausible when Indy covers with a single touchdown.

Fantasy Advice: Maurice Jones-Drew is a must go with no Fred Taylor. Or at least, Del Rio pretending he isn’t on his roster. I have no idea what his status is. When it comes to the Colts, your guess is as good as mine with which receiver to start. Hopefully Addai doesn’t play so Indy has a running back worth a damn.

DALLAS -4 Baltimore
Line Pick: Nice, our first Saturday game of the NFL season (or at least as far as I can remember). I hope you have the NFL Network, because this is actually worth staying in for. The Ravens seem like one of the few teams left who benefit greatly from playing at home. It’s inevitable that we end up getting burned by this game, but we’re taking the Cowboys to cover. I still do not have much faith in Joe Flacco in a playoff like atmosphere. Sorry, Balmer. But it was one of the few theories that worked for me last week.

Fantasy Advice: I like Mc’Clain coming out of the backfield for the Ravens, the Cowboys have so many options and such an inconsistent quarterback that I really don’t know what to tell you other than I’m content to have never had Roy Williams, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber or Felix Jones on my roster. Tashard Choice is probably the safest bet here, and the Ravens have a top five run defense. Really, I don’t know what to tell you.

CLEVELAND -3 Cincinnati
Line Pick: Well, the Browns have the better personnel (and I’m not referring to quarterbacks, I refuse to compare the merits of these two), but the Bengals are playing better and with a little more fervor than they have all season. Fitzpatrick has more snaps under his belt…I’m going to take the points. How can you take a team that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in four games?

Fantasy Advice: Housh for the Bengals, maybe Edwards and Lewis for the Browns. Deepers leagues you can justify Cribbs or Harrison, start anyone else on either of these teams then it’s amazing you are still in contention.

New Orleans -7 DETROIT
Line Pick: The Lions have actually covered the past two weeks, but we’re still taking the Saints. If Detroit is going to fend off the dreaded 0-16 season, their going to have to do it next week in Green Bay. And given how the last four or five weeks have gone for the Packers, that seems about right.

Fantasy Advice: This Saints defense is in the bottom third of the league (though I have no idea how, they’ve invested enough money and draft picks into it), so I like Kevin Smith to get in the end zone a couple times. As for the Saints, well, they’re on the road. So you have to set your own expectations. Personally, since it’s the Lions, I still like virtually everyone to rack up some quality pointage. Especially Colston and Thomas.

Pittsburgh -2 TENNESSEE
Line Pick: It appears relying on the Titans is ill-advised, if last week is any indication. But Pitt is another team that revels in home field advantage, and Tennessee is going to be bound and determined to hold onto home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so we’ll take the points and just assume the Titans win this one.

Fantasy Advice: I like both defenses and maybe Cage or Washington in some of your deeper leagues. Obviously Heinz Ward is a must go, he excels in these hard hitting games. No question he’ll be fined.

Miami -4 KANSAS CITY
Line Pick: I think the loss to San Diego took the win out of the Chiefs sails. It wasn’t really sustainable, anyways. The wind they had before that game was equivalent to one of those mini-fans people walk around with at amusement parks. I like the Dolphins, but expecting them to cover more than a field goal is always a tentative proposition. Best to stay away from this one, methinks.

Fantasy Advice: Hmmm, well, you’re insane if you start any receiver in this game other than Dwayne Bowe. Neither quarterback is really a fantasy playoff quarterback (and if you are starting one of these players this deep into the season and are still around, congratulations, you’re one of the luckier people on the planet), I haven’t been following the status of Chiefs running backs and Ronnie Brown is always a serviceable starter. So, Ronnie Brown. That’s about it.

San Fransisco -5.5 ST LOUIS
Line Pick: Alright, are the Niners steady enough to pick to cover as a favorite? I’m skeptical. But after that letdown against the Seahawks I can’t take the Rams to keep this game within a touchdown. Besides, the Niners are on their meaningless annual second half tear to get all their fans excited for next season, only to disappoint them considerably the following season.

Fantasy Advice: Shaun Hill should actually put up some points. But like most scenarios with middle-tier quarterbacks at this point in the season, if you’re torn between Shaun Hill and someone else on your roster then your week is probably obsolete. Frank Gore should run wild and even though he let us down last week, we like Vernon Davis to come through for his fantasy owners, however few are left. The Rams aren’t sporting much these days, but if you’re conflicted and in a deep league, Donnie Avery might surprise some people.

NEW ENGLAND -7.5 Arizona
Line Pick: So it appears Vegas doesn’t have any faith in Arizona in cold weather, and therefore the playoffs. I have a feeling they’re right, but 7.5 seems like an awful lot for a team that was squeaking by the Seahawks just two weeks ago. Well, considering Arizona has been getting blown out and that game in Philly being so fresh in my mind, we’re going to take New England to cover. I’m sorry, but their isn’t a right and wrong here.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker should payoff big time. If you own any Cardinals, based on their performances in the Philly game, I’m afraid Breaston and Fitzgerald are better options than Boldin. That’s the advantage of playing at a cold weather university. Right now, both these offenses are producing points in a myriad of ways. Depending on how you think Arizona will fare playing in New England, you can make a case for any and all of them considering both defenses are susceptible to giving up big plays.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 San Diego
Line Pick: We said it before and we’ll say it again, we hate picking games with that involve the Chargers. But since both are still vying for playoff spots (one realistically and one speciously) we’re going to go with resume and the home team. Take the points, and just expect Jon Gruden to coach circles around Norv Turner.

Fantasy Advice: Cadillac is slowly easing his way into regular rotation, but I think you can still get one more solid week out of Dunn, especially against this Merriman-less defense. Bryant should have a big game with Garcia coming back and for whatever reason, we like Jerramy Stevens to produce in this game. Probably because the Chargers have less defensive tenacity than one of the defenses from the Teen Wolf montage.

Alright, that’s probably it for the day. Back tomorrow with the second half of this weekend’s games.

I haven’t watched nary a second of last night’s Bears-Saints game, but from looking at my fantasy page, it appears Reggie Bush either re-aggrevated his injury or was benched for fear of doing so. Either way, between him and Matt Forte, my opponent only managed roughly 22 points, with about 16 of them coming from the Bears running back. On the other hand, we didn’t play Colston because he’s had maybe four good games all season. Naturally, for what’s probably the second time we’ve benched him since he’s been healthy, he gets in the end zone. Fuck that Saints team and all their unpredictability.

There were considerably more games for last night and with the 1PM slate on Sunday, which pisses us off incredibly. Why does the NFL format their television schedule in the manner that they do? For the most part, every market gets four games on Sundays (three in the afternoon, one at night) and one game on Monday night. You can’t even consider the Thursday night game part of the lineup because it’s only available on the NFL Network (unless of course the NFL allows your local market to pick up the home team’s game that otherwise wouldn’t be available to them, I guess we should be grateful?).

So for the most popular sport in the country, they offer the layman under a third of all possible matchups on any given week (give or take one or two). Why not sparse it out a little more? Of the 16 games available to them after the byes, 13 of them air in only two different time slots. Does this not seem illogical? Even if you have NFL Network, you can only realistically follow one or two games at a time (depending on how many televisions you can cram into a living room).

Wouldn’t they be better served to start games at intersecting times. Maybe a couple at 11AM, a few at 1PM, some at 3PM, several at 5PM and save two for the prime time slots at 8PM on Sunday and Monday night? That is a lot more availability and as a result a lot more revenue, is it not? Look at The Oscars, or any entertainment awards show, they don’t just start chucking little trophies across the audiotorium to try and get it over with. No, they stretch it out over an unfathomable length of time to milk every dollar out of it they can.

Anyhow, I do not mean to tell the NFL its business, they’re obviously making money hand over fist with their current arrangement with both the broadcast networks, ESPN and the NFL network. But maybe if everything with the NFL wasn’t so exclusive, they wouldn’t have to lay off 150 people.

Onto the picks, home team in CAPS. We’re 0-0-1 on the week after last night’s game.

ARIZONA Pick ‘em Minnesota
Line Pick: I’ll take Arizona at home, despite them being 3-7 against all non NFC West teams. Minnesota is actually great in domes, so this might be unwise, but I think the Vikings are due for a loss.

Fantasy Advice: It might be a good day to start Berrian or whatever other receivers are on Minnesota, since it doesn’t seem like the Cardinals can stop anyone from passing the ball. But you do so at your own peril. This will probably be the first and last time I recommend starting a receiver who has either Gus Ferotte or Tavarais Jackson throwing to him. Minnesota has a great defense so you might want to consider benching Warner if you drafted him as a backup and he became your starter as the season moved forward. At this point, can you justify benching any Cardinals receivers? I say no.

NEW ENGLAND -7 Oakland
Line Pick: Yeesh, The Pats have left a lot to be desired the last couple weeks, but we’ll still take them to cover here. These two teams are polar opposites in terms of professionalism. Just based on that alone I can’t take Oakland with seven in Foxboro.

Fantasy Advice: I’d expect Moss to be out for a little vengeance, but I can’t recall a more indifferent hall of famer. Welker, Kevin Faulk and Cassel should all be safe options, and of course you should always start a defense who’s playing the Raiders. On the other side of the ball, much like the Bengals of Cincinnati, I wouldn’t go near any of their players.

CAROLINA -7 Denver
Line Pick: This Denver team has been an enigma for quite some time, but Carolina has been on a role and they’re deadly at home. I think you have your answer right their. Yes, I am aware of Jay Cutler’s arm strength, at this point I hope he’s mentioning it ironically.

Fantasy Advice: It’s a fire sale for Carolina Panthers. Stewart, Williams, Delhomme, Muhammad, Smith…regardless of how many you have, they all have to be starting. Denver…just play the regulars. You could make a stretch with someone like Stokley if you’re in a deep league, but Carolina’s defense is nothing to sneeze at.

BALTIMORE -2 Pittsburgh
Line Pick: Alright, maybe we didn’t do this Baltimore team justice last week, but we have a hard time believing they should be a favorite against a solidified and respected Pittsburgh defense. For this matchup, we’re going with the better of the two quarterbacks. Roethlisberger, though inconsistent and sort of disappointing throughout the course of the season, has faced defenses like this for four seasons now, in late season games against viable playoff teams. Flacco looks good beating up on Cleveland. We’ll take the points on the road.

Fantasy Advice: Pssh, Michael Clayton has been coming on a lot more since Baltimore discovered how to move the ball downfield, but it is hard to recommend anyone other than top-tier players against Pitt. The Steelers have Hines Ward, two running backs and a slew of other players that you have to reconsider starting against Baltimore. The offense, much a result of their quarterback, is rather erratic. I like Ward and Parker, but don’t expect more than a touchdown out of anyone else.

DALLAS -3 New York Giants
Line Pick: So they lose one game because of some errant dropped passes by a shell shocked wide receiver, and now they’re a 3-point dog against an 8-6 team? Of course they are. They’re playing the Cowboys in Dallas. Everyone is a dog. This Dallas team has too many “stars” to be an underdog, am I right? If you can’t tell, I’m taking the points with the Giants.

Fantasy Advice: Well, like we said, there are a lot of stars on Dallas, and the circumstances are such that I think you have to cap it at them. You really don’t want Miles Austin in their against this pass rush. Or Patrick Crayton. Tashard Choice if Barber isn’t playing. And Barber, whose had a Roethlisberger like season, is actually questionable. For the Giants, I would actually expect Ward to get his fair share of carries and for Toomer, Boss and Hixon to all produce.

PHILADELPHIA -14 Cleveland
Line Pick: Let’s just make it a rule of thumb, and give the points in every single game the Browns play for the next three weeks. Ken Dorsey. My God, they might as well put the Frisbee dog from PCU back there. For next week’s game against the Bengals, they should have David Spade get on the intercom and say, “Doesn’t matter who wins, because they’re all losers”.

Fantasy Advice: Westbrook, McNabb, Jackson and maybe even Buckhalter depending on how out of control things get. Oh, and with Dorsey lining up under center, I would use the same approach that I recommended for teams playing Oakland. On Cleveland’s side of the ball…Um, in really deep leagues, Jerome Harrison or Josh Cribbs might be worth a gamble. You can’t really play any of their receivers. Not that the Browns have used Dante Stallworth appropriately all season.

That’s it for the week. Enjoy the games and we’ll be back on Monday.