Fantasy Football

Our apologies for not posting yesterday, it wasn’t anything personal or due to a lack of talent, but extreme technical issues at work and with this site. It would have just been some nonsensical drivel to meet our daily quota anyways.

If your league has a playoff, week 15 is the one week where every league is actively participating in it. Either you’re winding down (semi-final or final) or just starting up (quarterfinal). Very few leagues only use four teams in their playoffs (which would be relegated to weeks 16 & 17, and seems way too exclusive for leagues over 8 teams, and even then, why not just throw every team in it? It’s a fucking fantasy league, not a gulag), so I wish you all that made it the best of luck. Unless of course you’re in my league, then I wish you nothing but misfortune and multiple injuries to each of your players.

Anyhow, since we missed our quota yesterday, today we’re going to exceed it with line picks and fantasy advice for tonight and Sunday’s 1PM games.

We kkkiiinnnnda came back down to earth with our NFL picks this week, going a dismal 7-9 thanks to unsuspectingly ugly wins from Denver and New England, absurd risks like St. Louis and Oakland, and no-shows from Tampa and Washington. That’s right, it’s everyone else’s fault but mine. If half of these games go the way they were supposed to, I finish 10-6 yet again, and increase my seasonal record to 30-16-2. Now I’m mired in mediocrity at 27-19-2. I am not hesitant to remind you that I still remain well over .500, but not so much so that I can claim savant status. We said it when we started doing this and we’ll say it again: Do not gamble on the NFL if you have alternatives.

But anyhow, onto this week’s picks. As always, home teams are in CAPS. See that, it’ll look just like that. But with different letters.

CHICAGO -3 New Orleans
Line Pick: Well, I’m taking the cold weather team in the cold weather town over the warm weather team that also plays in a dome. Call us crazy, but the Bears being unable to cover three against a team this inconsistent would be a good indicator that they’re not making the playoffs. They probably aren’t, but choking away this game means they wouldn’t have won but a couple games all season.

Fantasy Advice: See, for similar reasons stated above, we really like Matt Forte to show up to this game. I can’t think of any mid-level players to recommend for this one, but you’re probably not going to go wrong with either Greg Olsen or Jeremy Shockey.

ATLANTA -3 Tampa
Line Pick: Alright, it kinda fucked us going against the home NFC South team last week, so we’re going to remain steady this week. Atlanta at home should be able to cover three, especially after that dismal performance from Tampa on Monday night. Still, we will acknowledge that we are struggling with the notion of Tampa dropping two in a row. Perhaps they’re due, though.

Fantasy Advice: We’re going to go ahead and recommend Harry Douglas for this game. Call it a hunch. Also, since Warrick Dunn appears to be the only running back left in the NFL getting over 80% of his teams carries you should really be starting him as well. Do not be fooled by the Antonio Bryant game from last week. It was on primetime and flashy and admittedly impressive, he isn’t the type of receiver to replicate a performance like that.

Washington -7 CINCINNATI
Line Pick: Probably more so than any other team in the league, we cannot fathom what this team is going to do week in, week out. But since they appear to be imploding and they’re on the road…nope. No, we cannot do it. We refuse to take Cinncy, even with seven at Paul Brown. Take Washington because they are still probably under the impression that they’re in the playoff race.

Fantasy Advice: Again, we can’t recommend anyone from Cinncy. This Washington defense, even with the fallout on offense, is stingy. On Washington, well, we like the receivers (Thomas, Moss and Randle El) and now that Shaun Alexander is no longer around to get two carries a game and Portis is losing his mind, we like Betts to see some playing time.

Sometimes, image is pretty telling of personality.

INDIANAPOLIS -17 Detroit
Line Pick: Wow that’s a sizable line. But Detroit probably realizes there only winnable game from last week and are going to be rather unmotivated to give a shit. And Indy seems to be adjusting to their new stomping grounds quite nicely. We saw last week that Indy can dispatch the lesser teams at home quite handily.

Fantasy Advice: Anthony Gonzalez, Calvin Johnson and maybe Shaun McDonald. Obviously you’re going to start Manning. Addai has been slow to produce as of late, if he’s actually playing I wouldn’t hesitate to put him in. This Lions run defense made LenDale White look agile on Thanksgiving.

San Diego -5 KANSAS CITY
Line Pick: Well, speaking of teams I have a difficult time assessing, San Diego is the NFL equivalent of DaVinci Code (I haven’t seen or read it, so if it isn’t as much of an enigma as everyone makes it out to be, I stand corrected). I know Arrowhead is a difficult place to play in and the Chargers are fickle, but they never seem to struggle with the truly terrible teams in the league. I’ll give the points, but I feel like we’re doing that way too frequently this week.

Fantasy Advice: Darren Sproles broke off a huge game last week, could that have been the turning point we predicted about six weeks too early? Yes. Yes, I think it is. Especially since Tomlinson and the rest of the franchise still thinks he’s the better option, they might be more susceptible to play who they think is the least valuable of the two. On KC’s side, I like Bowe to come through big for his owners. Gonzalez, Rivers and San Diego’s receivers should all be viable options. Even Malcolm Floyd.

ST LOUIS (no line) Seattle
Line Pick: You have my sympathies if you do not have Direct TV and are forced to watch this game. Even if you’re a fan of one of these two teams. Shit, at least when you’re watching the Cards wail away on your boys, at least you’re watching a playoff team. Anyhow, since I can’t find a line and am picking a winner, I’ll take the home team even though Seattle showed a little something against New England last week. It must be sad when your team’s best game of the season is in a loss.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I don’t know what to tell you. Start everybody or start nobody. St Louis’ defense is atrocious and Seattle’s isn’t far behind. The Rams produce a better offense and Seattle spreads it around a little too much to actually recommend a receiver. I suppose if you have Deon Branch then your inclined to start him against the Rams. But man does that feel tentative with Seneca Wallace throwing to him on the road.

Miami -6.5 San Fransisco
Line Pick: Alright, San Fran appears to have made a leap as evidenced against the Jets last week. But that was at home. None the less, Miami can still win this game and not cover, and they’re not exactly prone to blowing teams out. Even though we feel like everyone is buying into Mike Singletary way too prematurely, we’ll take San Fran to cover but to lose.

Fantasy Advice: Ted Ginn, who we seem to recommend every week and he never comes through, we are going to recommend yet again. Because he eventually has to have another good game, right? RIGHT? Both defenses are pretty apt so in reality we’re going to say start both of them. Though they’ll both give up some points, they’ll also create turnovers against inconsistent (some might say shitty) offenses.

NEW YORK JETS -7 Buffalo
Line Pick: Well, we’ll take the Jets. I know they’ve had a couple bad losses (Denver at home and the Niners in San Fran), but they’ll be out for blood. And a conference rival at home is a great opportunity for everyone to hop back on the “Jets will compete for the Superbowl” bandwagon. Brett Favre makes people do some crazy things.

Fantasy Advice: Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller & Jerricho Cotchery should all produce for their owners. I have a hard time recommending that you bench any starter on either of these teams that you may have. Except for Lee Evans. Whenever in doubt, always bench Lee Evans.

Green Bay -2.5 JACKSONVILLE
Line Pick: Wow, lose to the Texans and you lose Vegas’ respect. Personally, I like the Green Bay to win by at least three, as Jacksonville seems fundamentally broken. Two disappointing teams, we’ll take the least disappointing of the two in Green Bay.

Fantasy Advice: Jacksonville’s mystique on defense seems to have left with Marcus Stroud, so we’ll go ahead and recommend Driver, Lee and Ryan Grant. On Jacksonville’s side, you have to start Jones-Drew because Green Bay’s rush defense is surprisingly terrible, but everyone else is benchable. If Matt Jones could have feigned that suspension for one more week, we’d throw him into the mix as well, but funny things happen when you get pulled over with a massive amount of cocaine on you.

Tennessee -3 HOUSTON
Line Pick: Wow, beat Green Bay on the road and everyone is fooled, huh? I mean, they’re at home for this one but we’re talking about a 12-1 team. Lay the points, take the best team in the league to beat a 6-7 team on the road convincingly.

Fantasy Advice: Yeah, I like Chris Johnson, but LenDale White feels due for one of those 5 carry 12 yard games that he was producing before he complained about his playing time against the Jets. Houston’s two wideouts (Walter and Johnson) are must starts at this point. I would bench Slaton if you have another option, though. No one runs well against this Tennessee team. For much different reasons, I wouldn’t start either quarterback.

That’s it for today, the rest of this week’s games tomorrow.

If you’re wondering why we are posting these so late on a Thursday night as opposed to late Friday morning, then you probably are hard-pressed for a social life so I might as well tell you. We are heading down to Atlanta for the SEC title game. I apologize for writing these a day earlier than anticipated, I can’t imagine how upside down your world is now.

Anyhow, these are for the 4PM through Monday night games, for tonight’s and the 1PM games go here.

BUFFALO -1 Miami
Line Pick: I’ll take Miami. Now, to more pressing matters: why the fuck is this a 4PM game? The game is being played in Canada and I do not know any Canadians. Are they prone to sleeping in really, really late? Because usually 4PM games on the east coast are reserved for matchups between two high profile teams with Superbowl aspirations. While both of these squads are above .500 (or just at it), they have mostly the widespread parity that overruns the NFL for that. I can’t imagine Chad Pennington or Trent Edwards leading teams to .500 records in the mid 90’s. So yeah, fuck you NFL, for this bizarre scheduling.

Fantasy Advice: Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Ted Ginn for Miami. Marshawn and maybe Fred Jackson in your deeper leagues. You start Buffalo wide outs at your own peril in fantasy football. I’m not going to contribute to that.

DENVER -9 Kansas City
Line Pick: Even though it feels to conventional and like it’s going to bite me in the ass, I like the Broncos to cover. At home, it looked like they got some of their swagger back against the Jets, and well, their playing the Chiefs. If they can force two turnovers against that offense I can’t even fathom KC keeping it inside nine.

Fantasy Advice: Jay Cutler’s throwing arm is so strong, that he lifted Chief and the water fountain over his head in one thrust. Jay Cutler’s throwing arm is so strong, they super-imposed it into the movie Over The Top when he was a toddler. Jay Cutler’s throwing arm is so strong, that when he beats off his seed shatters glass. Obviously you should start Jay Cutler, lest you feel the wrath of his bulldozer of a left bicep. They say it’s sculpted from the finest metals. Also, you probably won’t go wrong with any KC running back or Denver wide out.

The AFC West might be the worst division in football, but their first in professional applauders. Which is just as rewarding.

New York Jets -4 SAN FRANSISCO
Line Pick: I like this Niners team enough to cover a Jets team traveling cross country. Why? The same reason they beat Buffalo on the road: persistence. Remember that Monday nighter in Arizona? They didn’t relent despite being outmatched, disorganized and on the road. I have a feeling something got exposed in the Jets armor last Sunday against Denver. We’ll take the Niners, hope things go well and hope Singletary doesn’t give some school kids a fruit bowl.

Fantasy Advice: Alright, we’re at a point in the season where no one can justify starting anyone from the Niners other than Frank Gore and, as of recently, Isaac Bruce. For the Jets, we like Keller (again) and Cotchery. And naturally Jones, but if anyone has Thomas Jones and isn’t automatically starting him, you’re beyond our help.

New England -4.5 SEATTLE
Line Pick: Does anyone remember Bill Belichick so much as even struggling with a team as bad as this Seahawks squad? They’ll win by 20.

Fantasy Advice: Anyone on New England is a viable candidate this week. Ben Watson, Jabbar Gaffney, Wes Welker, Matt Cassel. If you’re in a deep enough league, leave nothing to chance. As for Seattle…Umm, Maurice Morris or TJ Duckett might score you a couple late touchdowns. I don’t know, you’re better off finding a monkey to set your lineup than actually putting any thought into starting a 2008 Seahawk on your fantasy roster.

ARIZONA -13.5 St Louis
Line Pick: I know it would be idiotic to give him the award and I typically hate contrarian bullshit like this, but Stephen Jackson is arguably the most valuable player to his team in the league. They can’t stay within three touchdowns against anyone without him and compete against the Patriots and Dolphins with him (not to mention beat the Redskins and Cowboys). What I’m trying to say is, take the points but keep in mind that Arizona is much more effective at home than they are in, say, Philadelphia.

Fantasy Advice: Well, the aforementioned Stephen Jackson is the only recommendation we can make for the Rams. Though in some of your deeper leagues Donnie Avery is definitely someone worth considering. If you don’t know by now, just start any of the three receivers for Arizona. If you don’t know which three I’m referring too, just know I don’t mean Jeremy Urban.

PITTSBURGH -3 Dallas
Line Pick: We always miss with this Pittsburgh team and we fucking hate the Cowboys, so our pre-set notions aren’t serving us well here. Since Pitt won so convincingly in New England last week and Dallas seems to be on something of a roll (not just anyone can host and dismantle the Seahawks this year), we’re going to take the points and go with Dallas, even though we tend to think Pitt is the better of the two squads. Why are we using such inverted logic? Because we’re 20-10-2 through two weeks and nothing in the NFL makes sense.

Fantasy Advice: Pittsburgh is still relatively inconsistent in the passing game and it looks like with Parker banged up but expecting to play, you can’t put too much stock in either him or Moore. This all kind of explains why we like Dallas to cover, as their offense should be able to move the ball against Pitt. Or at least as much as anyone has. With Dallas, we like a lot of the reservers (Austin, Crayton, Tashard Choice). The only way to keep Pittsburgh honest is to keep them off balance. If Jason Garrett is even half as smart as Jerry Jones wants him to be, then he’ll know this.

BALTIMORE -5 Washington
Line Pick: Baltimore’s been on a tear as of late, but it’s been against garbage teams (Cleveland, Cinncy, Houston an Eagles team that only played McNabb for a half, and one blowout loss to the Giants in the middle of all that). They both need the win to stay in the playoff race, but Washington is much more desperate. We’ll take the five and the dog.

Fantasy Advice: Two stingy defenses going up against struggling quarterbacks. We’ll say Portis is a must because we have eyes, and both defenses should force some turnovers against inexperienced quarterbacks.

CAROLINA -3 Tampa Bay
Line Pick: Good golly is this an intriguing match-up. I think Tampa is the vastly superior team but their on the road. Carolina had a big win against Green Bay and shows no signs of slowing down. We’re actually going to take Tampa because Carolina’s offense is a little too one-dimensional (throw to Steve Smith, hand off to Williams) and Delhomme is susceptible to one of those horrendous Delhomme specials. Tampa is too good of a defense to fall to that. At least by a wide margin.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams. Obviously. If they can get a win out of this, Carolina will also have to utilize Muhammad and Jonathan Stewart (You see how we hedged our bets there?). Tampa is sort of an enigma, fantasy wise. If Cadillac is getting carries it renders Dunn obsolete (and vice versa). Garcia is only good in either leagues with 14+ teams and two quarterback leagues, and at receiver reliability is defined by Antonio Bryant. Yeah, I guess I’m saying only go with the running backs.

Alright. That’s it. We’ll return on Monday with something half as comprehensive as this. Enjoy the great slate of games this weekend.

Our apologies for being so untimely, we had to write this at our late lunch.

It’s time to post our line picks for the upcoming week, and I hate to do it but I told you it would happen. After a strong 10-4-2 start in week 12, we followed up in week 13 with a similar 10-6, bring our record against the lines to 20-10-2 on the season. Or rather, since we’ve been doing this. If it happens again this week and we increase our winning percentage, I think it’s safe to label us a savant for these purposes. Again, you’re welcome.

As far as fantasy advice is concerned, we’re working with a contrasting success rate. That is, our fantasy suggestions would be justification for throwing us into prison, considering hosting a website on fantasy football is supposed to suggest we might be an authority on the subject.

Onto the lines/fantasy advice. Home team in caps.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 Oakland
Line Pick: Well fuck me. I didn’t even realize there was another shitty Thursday night game tonight until just now. See, that’s why we do this. So we actually give a shit about the NFL Tuesday-Saturday. Anyhow, I’d probably take Oakland here. The Charger defense is wretched and Oakland’s is good enough to keep it within a score. I hate doing this because it puts a modicum of faith in JaMarcus Russell or whoever Cable plugs in at quarterback to accomplish anything. I can’t wait to read later tonight that Oakland lost by ten.

Fantasy Advice: No one on the Raiders unless we have a clear cut picture on who’s getting the majority of the carries in their backfield. San Diego should produce good games from any speculative number of wide outs, and Tomlinson is capable of delivering. But putting faith in San Diego to live up to expectations is obviously a futile enterprise. In short, I have no fucking idea. Start who you normally would and bench Vincent Jackson if you think he isn’t due for a good game.

CHICAGO -6.5 Jacksonville
Line Pick: Well, both teams suffered disappointing losses last week, but Chicago is still contending for the playoffs. That, combined with the home field advantage and Jacksonville’s banged up offensive line, I think is enough to lay the points with the Bears. Still, I take this line with a lot of trepidation.

Fantasy Advice: If last week is any indication, Kyle Orton and Matt Forte are going to light this defense up. You could say the same thing about David Gerrard but I have no idea who he’d throw to and Jones-Drew is amazingly sporadic with his exceptional play. You have to start him, but it feels like a week to week ordeal. Not once have I felt confident about a Jones-Drew game. yet he averages over 16 points a week and I’ve started every week he hasn’t had a bye.

Minnesota (no line) DETROIT
Line Pick: When I say “no line”, it means for the life of me I can’t find one anywhere. And that is understandable. With both Kevin and Pat Williams suspended for four games as a result of the steroid scandal no one recalls or gives a shit about, Vegas probably needs a couple extra days to recalibrate their stance. I can understand their trepidation. Much of Minnesota’s success hinges on their pass rush. When you remove two potential pro-bowlers from it, well, it becomes conceivable that they could lose to a 0-12 team on the road. If the line is over ten we say take Detroit, under stick with the Vikings and realize that if you’re picking the Lions to outright lose this game, you’re picking them to go 0-16, which I think is a fitting conclusion to the Matt Millen era. Hey, remember when they were 6-2 last season and everyone though they’d make the playoffs? Man, that was a wild two months.

Fantasy Advice: I still like Peterson and Taylor to come through with some good numbers. Calvin Johnson should have a monster day with the crippled front seven from the Vikes, depending on just how crippled you consider them to be, Kevin Smith and Shaun McDonald might prove to be viable options as well.

GREEN Bay -5.5 Houston
Line Pick: Hmm, a dome team going up to Green Bay in December, that always works out well. Even though Houston covered handily, I have no idea why they are getting relatively generous lines. They are 5-7 right? I’ll take the Pack to win by a couple scores.

Fantasy Advice: Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Kevin Walter, Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant & Aaron Rodgers should all come through for their owners. I also like Green Bay’s defense to rack up some points. They have an uncanny ability to make mediocre quarterbacks look like Akili Smith.

TENNESSEE -13.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: Unless you like Ken Dorsey going up against one of the two best defenses in the league on the road, I’d lay the points.

Fantasy Advice: Chirs Johnson & LenDale White should tally up some yards. I actually like Justin Gage to come through with a serviceable performance. As for Cleveland…if Lucifer hasn’t sucked whatever dexterity was left in Braylon Edwards I don’t know if we’ll be able to tell, because I just can’t see Ken Dorsey getting him the ball on a consistent basis. In other words, the passing game will be shit, and as a result the running game will be shit. I wouldn’t start any Browns unless you feel differently about Dorsey, and then you can only justify the tight end (Winslow or Heiden) or Edwards.

INDIANAPOLIS -13.5 Cincinnati
Line Pick: Tough week for the NFL in Ohio, but when isn’t it? Hahaha. But seriously, I’d take the Colts, who’ve struggled to cover lately but at least it was on the road. In the safe haven of that state of the art ice skating rink they play in, Manning should be able to redeem himself from last week in Cleveland. Either way, the Colts are fucked in the playoffs if they’re struggling that much on the road against the Browns. If they have to go to New England, New York, Denver or Baltimore, cold weather teams with functioning offenses, it will be lambs to the slaughter. In short, some things never change and Manning will never look comfortable with a millimeter of snow on the ground. Honestly, the aliens in Signs reacted more professionally to the site of water than Manning does to snow.

Fantasy Advice: Manning, Dallas Clark and Addai should all run rough shot over Marvin Lewis’ improved from 2007 but still terrible defense.

A reference to the only good Shyamalan film? I guess.

NEW ORLEANS -3 Atlanta
Line Pick: Even though both Carolina and Atlanta disproved our “NFC South sucks balls on the road” theory, the records are still really, really disproportionate. Not to mention both Carolina and San Diego we’re still playing inferior opponents, even if they were impressive wins. But of the four in the division, The Saints have the biggest disparity in road vs. home performances. I like New Orleans to cover and make a late season push to attempt to win this division. They’ll need a lot of assistance (divisional opponent losses), but it isn’t beyond comprehension. I don’t think anyone is looking at the Panthers or Bucs and thinking these teams are full-proof.

Fantasy Advice: Any Saint receiver you can get your hands on. With Deuce McAllister out Pierre Thomas should be indispensable. On the Falcons side I like Turner, Wade and Jenkins to put up some points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 Philadelphia
Line Pick: I know the Eagles looked impressive against the Cardinals and I know they always play the Giants harder than anyone else in the league, but I’m not betting against this Giants team until they give me reason too. I would be lying if I said I didn’t have a looming sense of a 3-interception day from Manning, but I am going with the favorite. Also, lets be honest, I think everyone’s concerns about Warner in cold weather were validated last week.

Fantasy Advice: Jacobs/Ward, Toomer, Hixon and Boss will all have respectable performances, while I wouldn’t know where to start with Philly. Is LJ Smith still playing? Go with him if he is. I could see DeSean Jackson breaking off a large touchdown on Sunday, but it hinges on McNabb getting enough time in the pocket to get it to him.

4PM games through Monday later tonight.

Our second round of picks for the weekend, read part one covering the 1PM games here. The brevity here is going to be uncanny. My apologies for that.

(Home team in caps)

SAN DIEGO -5 Atlanta
Line Pick: San Diego has had as many heartbreaking losses as any team that I can recall in a single season, and there really isn’t any reason to think this would be any different. But with the Falcons coming off a huge home win against the Panthers and with the Colts ripping out the hearts of the Chargers faithful again last week, we expect both teams to come back to earth in their own fashion. Take San Diego, give the points.

Fantasy Advice: Vincent Jackson hasn’t let down his owners in quite some time, we expect his streak of stellar performances to continue. I think Tomlinson is going to be putting up lackluster numbers for at least the rest of this season, he just seems to have lost a spring in his step. You have my sympathies, Tomlinson owners. Because you can’t justify benching him. On Atlanta, look for big games from Michael Jenkins and potentially Jerius Norwood, that’s if Harry Douglas doesn’t eat up all their touches.

OAKLAND -3 Kansas City
Line Pick: If you’re a fan of either of these teams, then you have our condolences. Not only because your team is absolutely beshitted, but because you probably have some motivation to watch this game despite your better judgment. I can’t even fathom what I’d rather do than watch this game…help someone move, make an airport pickup, tour the rain forests of South America naked; the list is endless. Just take KC and the points if you’re planning on doing a parlay with every game on Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Bench all of them. Larry Johnson could rip off 200 yards and I wouldn’t regret benching that vile fuck.

NEW ENGLAND -1 Pittsburgh
Line Pick: Hmmmmm, you’re basically picking a winner here. So it’s really a matter of how legitimate you think Matt Cassel is. Have these past two weeks been an anomaly or is he Tom Brady 2.0? I tend to think it’s somewhere in between, but I am going with the Steelers here. They are inconsistent but this strikes me as the type of game they show up for. Not to mention Pittsburgh has the top rated defense (passing and rushing) in the league.

Fantasy Advice: We really like Welker and Jabbar Gaffney to have great games and for Nate Washington and Heath Miller to rival him. These are two of the most efficient teams in the league, we suspect their going to have to reach above and beyond their top-tier players to move the ball.

NY JETS -7.5 Denver
Line Pick: Jets in a landslide. Unless they can clone Al Wilson and put this game in Denver, I do not expect the Broncos to come within a mile of winning this game, much less a touchdown.

Fantasy Advice: That said, Cutler, Marshall and Royale should get you some numbers. You pretty much have to start any of the following for the Jets: Favre, Coles, Cotchery, Stuckey, Washington, Jones and Keller. Remember, Denver gave up 31 to Oakland of all teams.

MINNESOTA -3 Chicago
Line Pick: Pretty solid Sunday night game, all things considered. If it goes to overtime I think it should be settled by a fist fight between Rex Grossman and Tavaris Jackson for the win.

Fantasy Advice: Two great defenses going against two teams that struggle throwing the ball. I think you have your answer right there.

HOUSTON -3.0 Jacksonville
Line Pick: Kind of an eyesore for a Monday nighter, maybe that explains the bizarre line. I’d take the Jags against the money line, much less if they’re getting three points. Seriously, is Jones-Drew out getting another hyphen for his name on Monday? Why the hell are they getting points in this?

Fantasy Advice: Anyone that isn’t a Jacksonville receiver or a Houston quarterback should work well.

That’s it until Monday. Thank fucking Christ.

So 2-1 isn’t a terrible start to the week, But let’s be honest, the only game that I could have potentially missed was the game I ended up missing. No one outside of Washington state or Michigan could have realistically predicted the Seahawks or Lions to cover. I guess Schlereth and Wingo were right about Warner and I was wrong about Boldin (but right about Fitzgerald and Breaston). I only saw from mid-second quarter on (fucking family obligations), but by my estimation, Boldin had at least four dropped passes (including two drops in the end zone on the same drive). Those fucking SEC, Texas and SoCal schools better thank Christ they aren’t forced to travel north for bowl games.

On a personal note, nothing makes you feel fucked like a fantasy performer dropping four touchdowns on you and in the process racking up more fantasy points in one game than he’s had in the past four weeks combined. To add insult to injury, I happen to be an Eagles fan. I am actually considering renouncing this. If I do not have an effigy of Brian Westbrook burning on my front lawn when I lose this week, I’ll wonder what’s happened to me.

Anyway, onto the picks and non-specific fantasy projections for the 1PM games this Sunday.

BUFFALO -7 San Fransisco
Line Pick: Buffalo’s at home and it is a considerable advantage. But seven is a pretty sizable spread for a team that has one win in the past six weeks and it’s against the Chiefs. The Niners have looked much…pluckier since Singletary lost his fucking mind at a press conference. I’m going to take the Niners and their solid defense to force a couple turnovers and keep this one close.

Fantasy Advice: Both teams have much better defenses than they do offenses. But both running backs should have respectable games and I like how Vernon Davis has been performing the past couple weeks. Do not anticipate a lot of earth shattering performances in this one. Instead, expect this to be a testament against the hard salary cap and excessive parity.

Baltimore -7 CINCINNATI
Line Pick: When the Bengals second best performance of the season is a tie at home in the ugliest game played all season, it is hard to pick them to cover against the Ravens, a team that trounced the same opponent a week later 36-7. Cincy has a habit of keeping a lot of games closer than you’d expect. But Baltimore has a lot riding on these games that are supposed to be akin to a bye week, to counter-balance any losses in an increasingly heated playoff race. Take the better team to win convincingly in the Ravens.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Mason and Willis McGahee and/or Ray Rice should have respectable performances. As far as Cinncy is concerned, if Chad Johnson isn’t playing I can’t even recommend starting Housh. If Cinncy wasn’t so accustomed to losing the city would have formed an angry mob to storm the gates of the front office by now.

If only Willis McGahee has the same perseverance of the Stanfield crew.

Indianapolis -4.5 CLEVELAND
Well, Cleveland is basically Fredo to Indy’s Sonny Corleone, and you are more than welcome to your own opinion. But I have to begrudgingly take the Colts to continue this current win streak and win by a few touchdowns. I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of a Browns-Giants type beatdown, what with Derek Anderson returning to the starting lineup and not having the burden of a possible replacement anymore. Not to mention that Indy has always struggled in cold weather environment because they’ve always played home games in a fucking dome. But from my perspective, Indy is just too hot right now to not cover 4.5 against a team that by all accounts is falling apart at the seams.

Fantasy Advice: I like Edwards to drop about two passes for significant yardage but still get in the end zone. Jerome Harrison might be a reliable option in some of your deeper leagues and Derek Anderson might be worth a gamble in a two quarterback league. On the flip side, I like Addai and Reggie Wayne to finally break out of a relative fantasy slump, as the Browns have a bottom ten defense in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Green Bay at home is a lot different that Green Bay on the road in New Orleans. I like Rodgers to rebound and Ryan Grant to run buckwild over a team that occasionally mails it in on defense (see last week against Atlanta). Not to mention that all three of Carolina’s losses have been on the road in much less hostile environments than Lambeau.

Fantasy Advice: Jennings, Rodgers & Donald Lee should all put up good to great performances. I would say Donald Driver, but he is having knee issues and is pushing 70 years old. Carolina is an odd duck when it comes to fantasy. DeAngelo Williams is, much to my dismay, having a great fantasy season despite being roughly four feet tall. Steve Smith is a must start regardless of the circumstances. And if you have alternatives I would steer clear of Delhomme, Muhammad and Jonathan Stewart,

ST. LOUIS (Pick ‘em) Miami
Line Pick: So let me get this straight, the Rams have won two games all season against a banged up Cowboys team and an over-confident Redskins team. They’ve lost their last five and I’m supposed to pick them to beat a well coached, disciplined and unrelenting Miami team because…why, exactly? They’re at home? They’re due for a win? That’s alright. I’ll take the team that’s playing for something other than a higher draft pick.

Fantasy Advice: If Steven Jackson plays, it makes Torry Holt, Marc Bulger and Donnie Avery all genuinely viable starters depending on the depth of your league. If he doesn’t, then bury these guys as deep on your bench as humanly possible and forget they’re even on your team for week 13. Miami is a wild card at receiver, but with Caramillo being out for the season he makes Ted Ginn look a lot better. Obviously Ronnie Brown is a starter, but Ricky Williams might warrant consideration against this paltry Rams defense.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 New Orleans
Line Pick: Well, if one of these NFC South teams we’re going to win a divisional road game, this would probably be it. The Saints should have a ton of momentum after that violation of the Packers. But it would be embarrassing to break our code in the same week we theorize it. But we will take New Orleans to lose a close one against a Tampa team that always keeps it close and is undefeated at home, especially since they only lost by four in New Orleans. I don’t know, if I’m gambling in Vegas, I might avoid this game like a Romeo Crennel avoids a clue.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Warrick Dunn is getting about 90% of the carries, so he is a must start regardless of who else you own. Garcia is reliable in two QB leagues. If you’re feeling confident in either Patrick Crayton, Joey Galloway or Jerramy Stevens, then knock yourself out. But it’s too much of a crap shoot for my tastes. New Orleans is even more fickle. The team always puts up points but the ball is spread around so much you’d think all their receivers were Broncos running backs. Tampa’s defense is going to show up, it’s a matter of New Orleans avoiding an identical offensive scheme to what they did last week that will keep Tampa’s defense honest.

NY GIANTS -3 Washington
Line Pick: Yeah, I’m not sure why the Giants aren’t always the Sunday night game, as they seem to be involved in one of the three best every week, and this is no exception. With that said, I’m taking them to cover handily. It’s difficult to sweep a season series against a team, especially one as impressive as Washington. But if they beat them in Washington (albeit it was the first game of the NFL season and Washington is all but literally a different team now), I fully expect them to win in the Meadowlands. That entails covering three points.

Fantasy Advice: Derrick Ward if Jacobs sits his second game out should provide a productive week. We also like Kevin Boss, as we always take the a serviceable to pro bowl tight end to have a big game if he’s going up against a great defense. Along the same line of thinking, we like Cris Cooley to come through for fantasy owners. As great as the Giants are, if they have any flaw it would be prone to giving up big weeks against stud receivers. I like Santana Moss to have one of his token 20 point games. I don’t know, it is really difficult to predict any opponent of the Giants to put up big offensive statistics when they’re liable to decapitate the quarterback on ever play.

Evening game picks later tonight.

I think it warrants mentioning that I went 10-4-2 against the line in my first week doing this. If you had the rare combination of wealth and stupidity, I could have made you rich last week. If, however, you missed the boat last week and are hoping on the bandwagon this week, you’re most likely destined to end up in a men’s shelter. But me not dolling out advice as to how to use your money is like John Madden not muttering incoherently about Turkey legs on Thanksgiving, so we have to do it regardless.

...And who can blame him?

Despite my optimismI still advise you to find an alternative to the NFL for your sports gambling. I will concede it is generally much easier to pick against the line in the last eight weeks than the first nine. There is too much fluctuation for 70% of the teams in the league nowadays (New Orleans, Atlanta, San Diego, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle & Green Bay have all gone the unexpected way) to even pretend to know what you’re doing; especially in the first four weeks of the season. Basically, unless you’re immensely lucky, you’re just throwing money to the house. You might as well donate money to a Clinton campaign. At least they have the nerve to out and out ask you for it.

Anyhow, we’re going to combine our fantasy recommendations along with our picks, because what we did last week was completely illogical. Everyone better hope that we start failing on these picks, because we’re never going to shut the fuck up about it otherwise.

(Home team in caps)

Tennessee -11 DETROIT
Line Pick: Detroit has lost virtually every game by over two touchdowns, and usually they weren’t playing teams that win over 90% of the time. Tennessee is coming off a blistering loss against one of three teams that will rival them for the conference title, look for them to dispose of Detroit quickly and comfortably.

Fantasy Advice: Surprisingly, I’m going to recommend starting LenDale White. I am always reluctant to do this myself, but after his blowup during the Jets game and subsequent apology, look for Jeff Fisher to give him a surplus of carries in a game that doesn’t require a breakout performance from Chris Johnson. Why do I think this will happen? Because for the most part, the Titans are ran by adults both on and off the field. They didn’t toy around with suspending, accepting, signing, cutting Pacman Jones. They drafted him, played him, he got into trouble, they suspended him; he got into trouble while suspended and they traded him to Dallas for ten cents on the dollar. Similarly, LenDale didn’t get any playing time and expressed his dissatisfaction at an inappropriate time, promptly apologized to coach Fisher and his team, now Fisher will probably reciprocate with a healthy workload tomorrow afternoon.

DALLAS -12.5 Seattle
Line Pick: Somehow, someway, Dallas is giving up more against Seattle than Tennessee is against a winless team. They’re at home, maybe? I have no idea. But if Dallas can put down San Fransisco with ease, I don’t see why they couldn’t do the same with Seattle. As much schaudenfreude as I got out of Dallas’ recent failures, I think hanging on to that win against Washington saved their season, and beating the Seahawks by 13 fits into that equation.

Fantasy Advice: Jesus, I have nary a clue as who to recommend amongst the receivers in this game. If you’re feeling desperate or worried about Plaxico Burress playing one down before retiring to the sideline for the requisite 58 minutes, I guess you could plug in either Branch or Engram going up against a still overrated secondary. On Dallas’ side, they’re all viable options but there are no guarantees. Is anyone feeling confident about Roy Williams having a big game, or Owens having two productive games in a row? Won’t Jason Garrett use Owens as a decoy this week just to show Jerry Jones what a genius he is? Not that you wouldn’t play him anyhow, but Barber will have a monstrous game if given 20+ carries.

PHILADELPHIA -3 Arizona
Line Pick: Alright, I was listening to Colin Cowherd at work today, and was absolutely stunned when Trey Wingo and/or Mark Schlereth both picked Philly to win this game. They claimed Arizona (specifically, Kurt Warner) struggles playing in cold weather and that would certainly explain the points they are giving up, but Philly has looked absolutely terrible in the past three weeks. Like, terrible past the point of redemption.
The Eagles are basically playing for not only their season, but the current makeup of their franchise. If they continue to lose like they did against Baltimore, you’re going to see McNabb be released, Reid fired (which we’re not sure we agree with) and a one or two year rebuilding process (potentially longer or shorter depending on who they bring in to coach). If you think they are up to the challenge of diverting all of that, then by all means, pick the team that tied the Bengals to cover three against a 7-4 team. Personally, I have to take the team with the second best offense in the league against a team that looks more and more like the Raiders on the offensive side of the ball, not to mention they gave up 36 points to a rookie quarterback. Take Arizona with the points.

Fantasy Advice: Breaston and Fitzgerald will thrive in this game, as they are both accustom to playing in cold weather (At Pitt and Michigan respectively); and Boldin could rack up 20 fantasy points in Libya or Antarctica. Philly, however, doesn’t offer any real dogs or reliable fantasy players. Pick up Lorenzo Booker and hope that Buckhalter and Westbrook (who are both listed as questionable) end up sitting this one out.

Enjoy the games, back Friday with the rest of these.

This is our second post of NFL picks for the upcoming weekend, you can read the first half here. Or just scroll down for a millisecond, whichever seems more logical to you.

(Home team in caps)

DENVER -9.5 Oakland
Oakland is actually the safer bet here. If they can score over 20 points against anyone just by controlling the ball and not committing errant turnovers, it’s Denver. That Broncos defense is about as imposing as a mouse to a lion, I don’t think I’ve ever seen one team so lopsided on the two sides of the ball. They’ll still win and it won’t be as nearly close as it seems, but expect Oakland to get in the endzone a couple times just by ripping off 15 yard chunks on the ground with whichever running back(s) are not injured this week.

ATLANTA -1 Carolina
These NFC south teams are ridiculously even and the road team always gets shellacked. Not to mention Carolina really should have lost the last two weeks against Detroit and Oakland, because those two teams are that fucking horrendous. Take Atlanta for the win, unless you expect Carolina to win out this season on one of the greater lucky streaks akin to the Ravens circa 2006.

New York Giants -3 ARIZONA
Game of the week by any measure. Great offenses, the best front seven in the league and the dog is at home. The Giants are the better team amongst these two (and we are always rooting for them, what with our 20/1 bet on them to win the Superbowl), but the Cards are playing possessed (particularly on offense). Personally, I see New York holding court and coming out of the desert with a win, but we’re not going to be surprised if Eli Manning of 2006 resurrects for one of those spontaneous 3 interception games.

Washington -3 SEATTLE
Take Washington. Sure, Seattle has Branch and Hasselbeck back, but neither are at full capacity. Other than that, the only thing Seattle has going for them is that they’re at home, and Washington has to contend with rowdy north-westerners. But if you recall, The Skins won all three divisional road games and although they never blow anyone out, winning by four is a modest victory by anyone’s definition. Actually, the way the NFL is going these days that will start to look like a blowout.

SAN DIEGO -3 Indianapolis
Am I missing something here? Indy is actually getting points? Why, because they have to fly cross country. I’ll grant you that going east to west fucks one up a lot more than vice-versa, but this San Diego team just looks like they don’t give a shit. Is it just the lack of Merriman? Is Tomlinson getting old? Is the O-line disappointing? I have no idea because I live in Columbus and have only had maybe one Chargers game available to me all season. Still, I only have one rule: when a Manning led Colts team has ripped off 3 straight impressive wins and they are playing in prime time against a 4-6 team, I’m taking the Colts.

NEW ORLEANS -2.5 Green Bay
No idea, but if forced to choose I am taking the Saints. All these NFC teams seem to struggle stringing together two impressive wins and the Packers just baptized the Bears last Sunday. Despite the Saints seeming ineptitude as of late, of all the teams in the NFL, they’re the most dysfunctional on the road relative to at home. And this game is at home. I’d give the points, though I think the Packers are the superior team in almost every way. Sadly, with the NFL, that doesn’t seem to matter anymore.

Back to fantasy tomorrow, where I doll out half-assed recommendations.

There isn’t much to say about tonight’s game from a fantasy perspective. Unless you have Houshmenzadeh or Willie Parker, you’re probably reluctant to start anyone from either of these teams given recent and/or season long performances. The circumstances being what they are, naturally you’re feeling a little more confident with Steelers on your roster than Bengals. But Roethlisberger spreads the ball out so much and has been playing so poorly as of late, plugging Nate Washington, Heinz Ward, Santonio Holmes or Roethlisberger himself brings out a little trepidation in your average fantasy owner.

The Bengals have no recourse for fantasy outside of Housh. At this point I’m benching Chad Johnson in favor of some middle-tier player like Donald Driver or Vincent Jackson. The running game is atrocious. Somehow they’ve managed to end up with both running backs from the past two seasons that were each getting over 70% of the carries for their team, but still no one wanted in Cedric Benson (last season with the Bears) and Chris Perry (beginning of this season). No one not in a sixteen person league that starts two quarterbacks is playing Kirk Fitzpatrick, and even then one might feel inclined to start Matt Leinart and hope for a Kurt Warner finger injury.

Really, the safest bet for fantasy in the matchup is Pittsburgh’s D (which should just decimate that Bengals offensive line and receiving corps.), followed closely by Jeff Reed (As far as kickers go, he should have a fairly stellar game).

This is Jeff Reed...Never have we felt better about not having any fantasy players in a sort of but not really televised game.

So, with that in mind, we’re going to try something new and pick the games this week against the line. Considering fantasy is just an abridged form of gambling (at least for most people, participating in a fantasy league with no buy-in really shouldn’t be done by anyone over the age of 15), we’re going to consider this loosely fitting for the URL of this website.

A few words of advice, we never gamble on the NFL when we are in Vegas. The parity and unpredictability of the NFL that we harp on so regularly is basically the reason why. When Houston can beat Indy and no one is even remotely surprised, it says something about the nature of gambling on it. That is, you might as well play roulette. We recommend gambling on the NBA, college football and basketball if you ever head to the desert. But since this is an NFL site, we’ll at least stay in the same league as what we’re supposed to be ranting about.

(Home team in caps)

Cincinnati +10.5 PITTSBURGH
At home used to mean something for Pittsburgh, but back to back losses to Indy and Washington make this line actually tricky. In short, we have to take Pitt and lay the points because you never want to put your money in the hands of a Bengals team starting Kirk Fitzpatrick on the road. But I wouldn’t feel confident about either one. If you are looking for an overloaded cheap parlay, take Pitt and hope Jonathan Joseph continues to drop interceptions.

CLEVELAND -3 Houston
Jesus Christ. So a team that came within a wide right Bills field goal of setting an NFL record for blown leads, that is starting what is basically a rookie quarterback, is giving up three to Houston? Yes. And what’s even worse, I am taking them to cover. If I take Houston I am relying on a huge performance from either Andre Johnson or Steve Slaton, considering they’re relying on one of two inept quarterbacks and a shaky offensive line, I’m taking the home team and laying the points.

DALLAS -10 San Fransisco
Vegas has really excelled at setting these lines. This feels like suicide, but I’m taking San Fran to cover. They have an underrated defense, a quarterback that can get Vernon Davis the ball and one that Mike Singletary won’t start marinating for dinner at halftime; and Dallas just hasn’t impressed me, even in the road win against Washington. We do not trust Romo and his busted right pinkie and think the receivers are tremendously overrated (Specifically Owens, though never underestimate the power of imagined slights when it comes to angry wide receivers and former teams). Not to mention Jason Garrett’s “genius” has yet to inspire. We’ll go against the grain and take the points with the Niners.

Tampa Bay -8.5 DETROIT
Ugh, we think the blown win against Carolina took whatever wind Detroit may have had left in their sails and believe this team is going 0-16. Tampa’s vying for the division and a wild card, trust that Gruden is not going to let them blow this game. Take Tampa, and feel like shit when they win by seven.

TENNESSEE -6.5 New York Jets
The Titans have been great against the spread this season. They are probably the most efficient team, still undefeated and are maximizing their talent unlike anyone I’ve seen this year. Sure, the Jets pulled off an improbable win against the Pats, but the Patriots defense fluctuates in performance and I don’t think the Jets have the horses to contend with those running backs and O-line from the Titans. Lay the points and wait for Indy to beat them the second time around.

Buffalo -3 KANSAS CITY
This is a good litmus test for both teams. Whoever loses could very well lose out the last six weeks. We’re taking Buffalo but this is exactly the type of game that Herm Edwards pulls out of his ass. My advice is to stay away from it.

Chicago -8.5 ST. LOUIS
St. Louis is back to their JV ways without Stephen Jackson, Scott Linehan can take a sigh of relief in that he’s not as bad as everyone initially thought. Lay the points. Chicago will bounce back from the drubbing they took from the Packers.

MIAMI -1.5 New England
This is a tough one because you’re basically picking a winner. New England under Belichick is 16-1 after losses. But if Cassel can throw for over 400 yards and they still lose, under what circumstances do they beat a Miami team with a pretty sick pass rush? Miami’s a middle-tier team at home and they feel due for a loss after that close one against Oakland. I say take the point and go with the road team.

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 Minnesota
Two teams with overrated defenses that can’t throw the ball. Flipping a coin is going to make this decision a lot easier, but we’ll take the team with the better running game along with the points in the Vikings. Expect a close one since both coaches are basically playing for their jobs at this point.

BALTIMORE -1.5 Philadelphia
If it wasn’t for last week we would take the Eagles in a heartbeat. But something was exposed along the way and with Westbrook still limping around, we’re taking the Ravens who start the rookie quarterback from a 1-AA school to beat our favorite team. God help us.

Alright, since there are no byes from last week on out, we’re going to break this off into two posts and cover the 4pm EST. games through the Monday night game in a second post later today.