Fantasy Football

So here it is, the biggest sporting event in America that manages to be over hyped every single year. It is a frequent topic of discussion whether or not a Super Bowl lives up to expectations. Ofttimes a person posed with such a question will make some sort of blanket statement along the lines of, “the game always sucks anyways”, as if it’s a highly original thought to dismiss a conversation piece with some faux-anti-establishment stance. When in actuality this perspective is so commonplace that it tows the line more so than ripping it off course.

And it’s for no reason really. If you look back at every Super Bowl going back to the Packers win over the Patriots in 1996, the duds have been few and far between. Fuck it, let’s just do the rundown in chronological order:

Packers over Patriots: I enjoyed this game immensely but we’re calling it a half-dud mainly because it wasn’t closely contested. This was one of those games in which everything that everyone thought would happen, happened. But between all the special teams plays and that it laid the groundwork for the Patriots dynasty, we found it enjoyable and look back on it fondly. This was also the last game in the NFC’s streak of Super Bowl victories.

Broncos over Packers: Was regarded as a tremendous upset and I’m still not sure why. Denver was fucking stacked but some things never change, because even when Brett Favre was great he was still overrated. There wasn’t much he could do about Denver hanging 31 on his defense. Terrell Davis went ape shit and John Elway solidified his legacy. This is probably still my favorite Super Bowl.

Broncos over Falcons: On the other hand, this is probably the worst. It will, for always and forever be remembered as the Super Bowl that missed out on the greatest NFL offense I’ve ever seen in the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Just go look at the numbers and the roster. This was a loaded offense with a serviceable defense that missed out on the title because their kicker who hadn’t missed a field goal all season, decided that late in the fourth quarter in the NFC title game was an appropriate time to do so. As a result, we got this god awful blowout that everyone could see coming a mile away.

Rams over Titans: This was supposed to be a blowout but the tenacious Tennessee Titans led by Steve McNair and Eddie George made a game of it, coming up just a yard short of the end zone to send it into overtime (not win them the title like historical revisionists are so apt to do). Definitely an entertaining, memorable contest.

Ravens over Giants: The Falcons-Broncos game was technically the worst we’ve ever seen, but only because we didn’t even bother to watch this train wreck. We didn’t know who was going to win and we didn’t give a shit. Both teams we impossible to objectively root for and this was during our freshman year of college. Needless to say we were preoccupied.

Patriots over Rams: The biggest upset we had seen at the time, the Patriots went in as double digit underdogs and came out with the win. At the time, every neutral fan was elated, none the wiser that it would start a dynasty and put the nation’s most insufferable fans in the spotlight for an entire decade. Never the less, the game itself was immensely satisfying because we never liked those Rams teams. They always got too much credit for their offense, “GREATEST. EVER.” Was the common description, completely ignoring our beloved Minnesota Vikings that we bandwagoned in 1998.

Buccaneers over Raiders: A dud in all respects but it’s gets a better rating than the Broncos second win or the Ravens win because we won money off of it, and for Craig Kilborne’s joke, “When asked if he was going to throw six interceptions in his next professional outing, Rich Gannon threw a pen at the reporter…only for it to be caught by another reporter”.

Patriots over Panthers: This was a great second half. Or maybe it only felt that way because it followed the dreariest half of football we’ve ever been privy too. It also stands out because while just about everyone was picking the Patriots to win, the only people who were diverging from common consensus were former players turned analysts. The Pats still ended up winning but they really shouldn’t have, and it still remains the best argument for why an ex-player makes a better analyst by virtue of being an ex-player than say, John Clayton.

Patriots over Eagles: Patriots beat “my” team in dramatic fashion, take home their third title in four years by a field goal. In spite of my subjectivity, this game offered a lot for the indifferent viewer.

Steelers over Seahawks: Just when you were tiring of the Patriots and were happy to see them left out of super Sunday, you immediately regretted it after watching this poor excuse for a game. The went into the game as a wild card favorite and ended up winning based on a series of calls that could have gone either way, and they all ended up going against them. To this day Seahawks fans still bitch about it.

Colts over Bears: This game was only two years ago and we remember nothing about it. Two stinkfests in a row.

Giants over Patriots: A textbook David vs. Goliath match up that produced similar results. This time around it was the Patriots getting bounced by a three point margin, much to the glee of everyone who hates dynasties.

As you can see, that’s a 6-6-1 giving us a 50% success rate. So, in other words, much like everything else in the world it only disappoints you half the time. Just enjoy the game regardless of what shape it takes. At least its free. With that said, lets take a look at the Sunday’s game. We’ll follow the same format we used for the divisional and playoff rounds.

Pittsburgh’s Outlook: I drifted through the past two weeks just assuming everyone was picking the Steelers. But listening to the radio for the first time since the Monday following the title games, it would seem the tide has shifted. Even though Pitt is still a heavy favorite they can now play the vaunted “Nobody respects us” card, something that hard-hitting meat-heads thrive off of. This moniker is like chum in a shark tank.

We could very well end up seeing Pitt mopping the floor with the Cardinals. They’re better coached, have more overall talent and possess a balanced offensive attack that the Cardinals only saw against a self-destructing Panthers team. We all remember Roethlisberger’s performance from his first Super Bowl that his team won in spite of, but most would tell you that while his play is inconsistent and shaky at times, a repeat performance like that is unlikely. Most would probably tell you if they avoid turning the ball over, they should be in the clear.

On the defensive side, this is statistically one of the better defenses to ever grace and NFL field. Tenacious, intimidating, strategic…There isn’t a liability to be found. But have they played a team with this many weapons in the post-season? Call me crazy, but I think the Cardinals receiving corps. top three options are better than any receiver sported by either the Chargers or Ravens. Not that I would expect them too, but the Steelers aren’t incapable of overlooking their opponent.

Arizona’s Outlook: And for good reason. This is a team that only got into the playoffs by playing in and winning one of the weaker divisions we’ve ever seen in the NFL (or the NBA for that matter). Everyone always said throughout the Cardinals three playoff wins that their vanquished opponents took them too lightly, and that was their undoing. Obviously this played a role but I don’t know if it’s necessarily a tremendous character flaw that everyone made it out to be. Of course they were taken lightly! They were 9-7 in the regular season and limped into the post-season. This team we’ve seen in January is obviously filled with ringers.

But it has been a helluva run, regardless of how you frame their journey to Tampa. The defense has adapted to each opponent, gotten to the quarterback and taken advantage of their mistakes. The offense is clicking on all cylinders and has played almost flawless football (which includes one and a half games without Boldin), each side has sucked it up and Edgerrin James is now contributing amply, spelling Tim Hightower. If there is a team of destiny in this game, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. And I have to be honest, that seems to be the vibe from a lot of observers, objective and subjective alike. Why else would they pick Arizona to win?

Manufactured ESPN Storylines: Is Larry Fitzgerald able to leap buildings in a single bound? Will his dad pretend to be objective while watching him in the press box? Will God win this game for Kurt Warner? Is Anquan Boldin going to murder his coordinator? Did the entire city of Pittsburgh relocate itself in Tampa, Florida? Can Arizona run the ball on Pitt? Can Pitt throw the ball on Arizona? Will strip clubs prove to be a distraction?

Fantasy Advice: We’ll get back to fantasy posts the week after the Super Bowl. My apologies for this.

The Pick: We’re torn. On one hand, we’ve got the stalwarts in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The workman like NFL mainstay that no one is surprised to see here, “defense wins championships and all that”. They went through what was statistically the toughest regular season schedule and came out of it with a 12-4 record. But they only went 3-4 in the seven games they played against playoff teams.

On the other we have the Arizona Cardinals, a makeshift team of a second year coach, a once washed up quarterback and a virtual no name defense. They weren’t supposed to make it out of the first round and managed to do so by the skin of their teeth. Throughout the course of the playoffs, they’ve demonstrated that they’re capable of winning this game, but look at these scores: 56-35, 48-20, 35-14, 47-7. Do you know what these are? These are the scores of games that the Cardinals lost during the regular season. Basically, when deliberating on whether you’re picking the Cardinals, you’re deciding if the two week hiatus is going to kill their momentum.

Jesus, I don’t know why we’re so indecisive with this one. Just in writing this post we’ve changed our mind about ten different times…Alright, we’re going to say that yes, it did indeed kill their momentum. Between that and the fact that the Steelers are going to have about ten times as many fans as the Cardinals, not to mention that Pittsburgh is just, and this is a crazy notion, simply the better team. We’ll take them to win and to cover the 6.5, but only because we’re rooting for Arizona.

Well, we’re 3-7 so far in the playoffs, though that feels about average for this post-season. And we finished 52-39-5 on the regular season. If you need that spelled out for you, it makes us 55-46-5 on our picks outright. Its not too shabby. Sans week fifteen and the playoffs, we are picking at about 60%, and we can’t fucking stand putting money down on the NFL. So yeah, it proves us wrong in a way, but we’re not going to let this temptress take our roll.

But semi-related to picking games, last year we made something of a small fortune on prop bets (we hit on “neither team would score three times in a row”, “Plaxico Burress would score final touchdown”, “David Tyree would score a touchdown” and “Laurence Maroney would score a touchdown”), but we no longer know anyone in Vegas and are hesitant to pick up the habit of online gambling. Never the less, for those of you who aren’t completely gutless or are fortunate enough to be in a county with legalized gambling, here are some prop bets we like:

Arizona +4 at half
I’m unsure as to which team I am picking to win this game (we’ll figure it out by the end of this post), but I like Arizona going into halftime with a six point lead or so. Why? Because they’ve basically done just that every game until now. Pitt’s defense is tenacious, but I could see them undermining this Arizona team like everyone else has. If the last three games they’ve played have counted for anything (and since we’ve had two weeks off, they don’t), Arizona should be able to at least keep it close until halftime.

Race to ten points: Arizona +150
For pretty much the same reason we like the Cardinals to cover that halftime spread. Also, Pittsburgh doesn’t usually come out the gates and beat their opponent over the head with an overwhelming amount of offensive output. Their style, on both offense and defense is more…relentless. And doesn’t expose itself too early in any contest.

First score: Arizona Touchdown: +290, Arizona Field Goal: +375
If you don’t know what these numbers mean, you put $50 on either bet, they pay out $195 & $237.50 respectively.

Pittsburgh to win by 11-15 +500
Arizona to win by 6-10 +900
It’s a good way to hedge your bets and also makes a potentially boring game significantly more interesting for your neutral observers.

First to Score Wins: No at +150
This is for your most degenerate of gamblers. We’ll call it the mortgage maker. But, at the same time it’s basically a 50/50 shot that this plays out in your favor and it pays out significantly better than that. If you’re not a degenerate (ooooh, Mr. Fancy Pants. You’re too good to place your kids college tuition on a prop Super Bowl bet? What? You think you’re better than me?), then this is a good bet to lay down for your girlfriend/new bride to keep her interested if she’s not already into football. She’ll have something to root for and might actually avoid sulking why you’re trying to enjoy yourself. Again, if she’s not already into football in the first place.

First Touchdown Scorer
Willie Parker +500 Because it’s possible he breaks an early run for a long touchdown
Edgerrin James +800 Because he’s had a resurgence and everyone is rooting for him now
Tim Hightower +900 Because he handles the goal line carries and if he gets in the end zone and not James, you’re going to be displeased if you had money on one and not the other.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s under the radar all of a sudden.
Heath Miller +1200 Because he’s their first option in short yardage.

Last Touchdown Scorer
Larry Fitzgerald +550 Because I can see him unceremoniously getting in the end zone after a disappointing game.
Hines Ward +800 Because he’s their best weapon on offense.
Edgerrin James +800 Because whether it’s close or they’re winning or losing convincingly, he’s going to be concerned about his stats.
Santonio Holmes +900 Because he plays special teams.
Tim Hightower +900 Because he gets every goal line carry.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s inexplicably under the radar.
Nate Washington +1500 Because he’s unsuspecting.
Steve Breaston +1500 Because he’s there, capable and really, really underrated.
Troy Palumalu +3300 Because he thrives at taking advantage of his opponents frantic self-defeat and putting the final nail in their coffin. And besides, if you put $50 on it, it pays out $1,700.

Alright, that’s it for the prop bets that looked appealing. There were some others on the board that are foreseeable but the odds aren’t really favorable. I wouldn’t want to put money on any prop bet unless it pays out better than a standard line bet, and occasionally they’re pay out is worse. There really doesn’t seem to be any point in engaging in this sort of behavior.

We’ll be back later today/tonight for our actual game pick and a general overview. We might also hold out for a live blog of the game, depending on how we end up spending our time while it’s on.

So over the weekend it appears that the following talking points are overrunning Super Bowl coverage through the first week of build-up to the game. If you have been appropriately ignoring them and want a summary, then you’re welcome.

1) Larry Fitzgerald grew up playing and enjoying football.

You’re not going to believe this, but as it turns out when someone is astute enough to actually reach the NFL, occasionally that person made it a focal point of their lives while growing up. Crazy, isn’t it? Apparently it’s significant because A) Larry Fitzgerald is now the common consensus greatest receiver in the league (I guess Randy Moss doesn’t exist if he doesn’t make the playoffs), and if not in”just current day NFL, then it’s some superlative laced tirade/screed about how LARRY FITZGERALD IS SO REMARKABLE HE’S ARGUABLY THE GREATEST RECEIVER TO EVER PLAY IN THE NFL AND HAS HAD THE GREATEST PLAYOFF RUN BY A RECEIVER EVER; B) His dad is a sportswriter. and C) He was a ball boy for the Vikings. This warrants major attention in the first news Super Bowl news cycle.

2) Is Kurt Warner a hall of famer?

This was the most foreseeable because he’s unique to probably any quarterback who has ever made the hall of fame. Based on just the numbers and making three Super Bowls, the answer is a resounding yes. So it’s not really a debate. But the conversation is kind of indicative of the Cardinals making the Super Bowl. Much like everyone is shocked they have to concede that Warner is going to Canton, they are equally vexed that the Arizona Cardinals could win an NFL Championship.

3) Pittsburgh is a working class city.

I guess this is somewhat prescient given the current economic climate. But honestly, who gives a shit? If anything, obsession with a entertainment company (sorry, that’s basically what professional sports franchises are) has worsened that city’s economy by inflating prices that addicts continue to pay. But since the majority of actual fans in Tampa for the game are Steelers fans, and that the team’s style of play resembles the working class mentality of the city all we’re going to hear about is the bond between the franchise and fan.

But what’s never mentioned is that most of these Steelers fans have the time to make it to Tampa because they do not have a job they have to worry about being fired from. And that the last of their savings are being attributed for the haul south. But thanks ESPN for only showing us the sunny side of the street. Can they do a sentimental heart-wrenching piece about a systemic problem as opposed to an isolated hard luck story? Probably, but they won’t.

4) Anquan Boldin: Asshole, or biggest asshole?

Essentially, if you’re disgruntled because you thought you could contribute positively to your team and your coach thinks otherwise, then you let things boil over into a screaming match and leave the stadium to cool down a bit and avoid celebrating with your team, you are completely irredeemable. It doesn’t matter if he’s been in the league for 5+ years and have never demonstrated any such behavior in the past, you are forever and always the disgruntled receiver who wants to sabotage his team because he’s a selfish prick.

Look, I’m not trying to make excuses for Mr. Boldin, he would probably be the first to admit that he was out of line behaving the way he did (especially at that point in the game). Not to mention that I can understand it being a tad alarming that he was still so perturbed after the game ended that he refused to celebrate a trip to the Super Bowl. But he is a top ten (some would argue top five) receiver in the league and has consistently performed at an all-star level all season, is it really beyond comprehension that he wouldn’t react well to being sidelined? His staunch displeasure with the situation was admittedly a disproportional response, but does it necessarily mean it’s a deeper issue than that? I’m going to say no, so queue the countdown to when I regret this.

5) Fired Coaches

It’s at the point now with coaching vacancies in professional sports that the news of someone being fired is standard operating procedure as opposed to a break from the norm. In most cases, you’re more surprised that the coach actually kept his job because the expectation for immediate gratification is so intense that the majority of fringe teams are going to clean house. Think about it, is it more surprising that Herm Edwards and Eric Mangini (among others) were fired, or that Dick Jauron and Marvin Lewis are keeping their jobs.

Really, what I think this boils down to is NFL fans and organizations are going to need to level their expectations of these guys, otherwise you’re always going to be bitter and dejected. Most current successful coaches in the NFL right now inherited their team and had the right pieces in place, they just took advantage of their good fortune accordingly.

I guess that’s about it, let me know if I missed anything. Media day should be coming up soon, we’ll cover that as thoroughly as we can from Columbus, Ohio. Should be uninteresting.

So I’m blanking on what I should write about today. But let me start off by saying that while I like reading Stewart Mandel’s columns, he’s about two weeks behind me on the “NFL playoffs being the best defense for the BCS” talking point. I imagine in the coming weeks he’s going to write an article detailing what a great movie The Godfather is and how it’s going to someday change the landscape of the film industry.

I kid Mandel, of course. He echoes a great point and unless the NFL is going to go to a best of three format (which would drive me fucking batty) this is kind of an unavoidable situation unless we reward the teams with the best records. Even still, I have no idea what the tiebreakers would be in this hypothetical scenario, but that wouldn’t solve the Cardinals dilemma, only the Chargers. And unless you’re a Panthers/Giants/Eagles fan, who wouldn’t want the Cardinals in the playoffs. You know a point is not worth dwelling on when you can make your case by simply stating “It’s the (fill in name of entity here)” and it proves your point.

No, what we need to resolve is the two week hype machine that the NFL now insists on giving us between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. No one seems to enjoy it set aside a few of the players who bask in all the attention. Though I imagine if you asked Troy Palumalu he would want to play the game the Tuesday after winning the AFC. And to be perfectly honest, I’d rather cater to the Palumalu’s of the world than the Terrell Owens’ (I know he’s not playing in the game, but I’m struggling to come up with someone similar on either of these two teams. Joey Porter is on the Dolphins now).

Why do I pine for the return to the one week layover? Because instead of one week of stories and sub-stories akin to this, in addition to the non-stop speculation to the players’ health status and sentimental sob-stories about everyone of the lineman, we get two weeks of everything we just listed. Its not that none of it is interesting, it’s just that most of it isn’t, and if it was for any other reason than for the NFL to squeeze a few more dollars out of the arrangement, I’d have no qualms with the two week layover. But it isn’t, and it just seems to pinpoint everything we find irritating about the NFL.

I’m not sure when the decision was made to definitively make the two week break standard operating procedure, but I seem to recall it bouncing back and forth for a few years before settling on the two week hiatus about three or four years ago. I guess they figured since it is the biggest stage in American athletics, if anything is going to have an extended break to create artificial buzz it might as well be the Super Bowl. But that’s actually counter-intuitive. Everyone knows when the Super Bowl is taking place whether it’s the week or six months after the conference title games. I’d actually argue that whatever profits they see from the extra week of nefarious headlines, they lose a (admittedly small) portion of their casual fan base.

So here’s my inconsequential solution: Play it the second Friday after the title games. It doesn’t exactly cut the time in half, but is practical for a couple reasons:

1) A Healthy amount of Super Bowl viewers get drunk during the game, but usually limit themselves because they have to work in the morning. Moving it to Friday is beneficial on both ends because A) The consumer doesn’t have to get up for work at 7AM, and B) The consumer consumers more. Supposedly at least a portion of the companies that pay overpriced airtime fees for the privilege of running their marketing department’s best efforts during the game, why not try to compensate by increasing revenue for at least one night with the product you’re hawking? (Obviously I’m referring to beverages, food, things of this nature, not UPS).

As for the actual event issues that would come about from this adjusted schedule, the noteworthy parties and shit that are as much a part of Super Bowl weekend as the actual game (Maxim, Playboy, ESPN, etc.) could be held on either Thursday night (the entire city is going to be put on hold for game day, anyhow) or during the layover week.

2) While it only cuts two days out of the waiting period, it’s generally the two worst days. This would spare us that endless weekend of enhanced and unnecessary non-storylines that we’re indoctrinated with that stem everyone’s best “Look at me! I’m important!” attempt at public attention. On Mike and Mike this morning they were — I kid you not — Talking to Donald Trump about the supposed adverse effects the economy is taking on sports. I didn’t stick around to listen to interview, but the smaller Mike was talking about high end ticket prices being cut in half from $10,000 to $5,000 with the same fervor and concern that Mae Braddock used when worrying about the heat being turned off.

In other words, it was just something they used to fill the airwaves. Hey, the economy is shit, this game lacks a lot of appeal to your bandwagon fans, Barack Obama’s president, lets bring on a fame-whore whose made some money in real-estate to discuss the economy’s indirect toll on the sports world! It’s a perfect way to eat up the two hours (after commercials) we have to be on air for!

I don’t mean to complain/critique/observe so much, and Lord knows I don’t need game analysis around the clock, just give me fluff pieces about Super Bowl dreams being realized if that’s the case. I just ask for less bullshit. That’s all. Cut the bullshit in half (or in this case, just take off about 1/5) and not only will you increase your audience, you’ll be on the receiving end of less petulant bitching that never makes its way to you like this right here.

So in honor of the Oscar nominations being announced today, we’re going to doll out some more awards from the NFL/fantasy season. Unlike yesterday, these will be primarily for playoff performances. So, without further ado, your contrived award winners from the 2008 NFL post-season.

The Benjamin Button award for “most likely having reversed the aging process”
We have no evidence of Kurt Warner being on steroids and no one has even suggested it until me just now, but this isn’t supposed to ever happen. I guess Randall Cunningham with the ‘98 Vikings set a precedent for something like this (except Warner’s regular season wasn’t nearly as impressive but he’s making the Super Bowl. Garrry Annnnderrrssssonnnnnnn!), but that was kind of an anomaly. Just Cunningham whipping the ball down field to the greatest jump ball receiver in the history of the league, which opened up the running and short-yardage passing game. Warner is out there hitting targets playing in an offense by a coach who came up with the Steelers. So congrats, Kurt Warner. You’re now a lock to make the hall of fame and you didn’t play a down in the NFL until you were twenty-eight years old. Which means my dream of playing QB 1 for an NFL franchise is still alive and well.

(Speaking of Benjamin Button, I enjoyed the film and everything, as for it having the most Oscar nominations however…I’m inclined to disagree with how this developed. It’s basically Forrest Gump as seen by David Fincher and penned by the same writer. Don’t believe me? Watch this damning video evidence.)

The Reader Award for “Most Inappropriate Relationship”
To The Philadelphia Eagles for playing the Kate Winslet role, because after you just lose the NFC title game in rather heartbreaking fashion, it’s probably better to demonstrate a little more concern and not celebrate with the opposing team like you won the Super Bowl. Especially when you reside and play on a professional sports team in a city like Philadelphia. I can understand, no one can be entirely disgruntled with the fucking Arizona Cardinals going to the Super Bowl, but considering you just lost your fourth NFC title game in eight years, the fans probably would have liked to see that it had at least a tinge of an adverse effect on you. Just wait until you get off the field to remember that you are given millions of dollars to run around on a field and chase a leather ball. For the sake of everyone, put on the facade and look a little crestfallen.

The Sean Penn Award for “Always being in contention regardless of the circumstances”
To the Pittsburgh Steelers, who whether you like them or not, are always going to be in playoff contention so long as they have a moderately competent QB. With Roethlisberger only being 26, expect them to win the AFC North or make the wild card for probably the next seven or eight years. Sure, they’re in a smaller market and players like Jerome Harrison just about always end up leaving. But just like Penn, while you may not like him on a personal level, he can carry a film and render so much of it expendable. The Steelers front office can do just about the same thing.

The Mickey Rourke award for “Most probable comeback that everyone is claiming to have been improbable”
To the Miami Dolphins, who after acquiring Bill Parcells as GM, it should have been plain as day that they were going to turn it around, and even more so after they got a serviceable quarterback. The parity is such in the NFL these days that once you get proper figureheads in place the rest of the pieces fall like dominoes. Parcells is often regarded as the greatest head coach ever, once you have him officially making your personnel decisions, combined with a weak schedule and no one taking you seriously for the first half of the season, an 11-5 record isn’t all that improbable.

(I haven’t yet seen The Wrestler (actually going at lunch today), but if you look at Rourke’s recent career before heading all the critical buzz, he had already done Sin City, Domino and Once Upon A Time In Mexico in the past five years. That really isn’t that bad. Given, none of them are considered tour de force acting performances like these are, but he wasn’t exactly destitute. He just wasn’t accepting Golden Globes and thanking his dog for his roles in those films).

The Bruce Springsteen Award for “Biggest Snub without any attempted explanation”
This, obviously, goes to the New England Patriots. Who buried, and I mean laid a beating on the now NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals unlike any I have seen since…well, the New England Patriots first half of the 2007 season. I know the Chargers beat the Colts in the wild card round and that’s the justification defenders of the current system will use. But when I look at the records, I see one team was 11-5 and the other was 8-8. It seems like the record speaks for itself. And much like Springsteen winning the Golden Globe for best song, the Patriots being so successful this decade makes their absence from the playoffs all the more glaring.

The Slumdog Millionaire award for “Most Overrated Contender of the year”
To Chad Pennington. Although he carried a 1-15 team in 2007 to the playoffs in 2008, by no means did he deserve to be the runner up from the MVP. I’m probably one of 12 people outside the state of Florida who’ll remember this in two weeks, but nothing he did merited that kind of recognition. Nothing. That team went 1-15 last season because of injuries (to the quarterback and starting tailback) and unloading offensive weapons for draft picks (Chris Chambers). It was a young team built for the future that got lucky with a slightly above average veteran quarterback who won’t turn the ball over in crucial situations. At least, until he got to the playoffs.

Also, if you haven’t seen Slumdog yet, it isn’t a terrible film and I’m not recommending you avoid it. But it’s just kind of fluff in a different country with very little answered about the characters and their motivations, not to mention numerous plot holes. So while it is entertaining and “inspirational” in a sense, I wouldn’t have it nominated for Best Picture, much less winning like it did at the Golden Globes.

Anyhow, that’s it for today, we might come back with some more of these tomorrow if not any Super Bowl commentary.

If you were surprised by anything that happened this week, then we don’t really know what to say. You should only be surprised that anyone you associate with was actually surprised. This, in a nutshell, is why we generally do not toy around with gambling on the NFL. Despite our success in the regular season, we’re having a difficult time understanding why anybody gambles on the NFL regularly, much less why it’s so immensely popular.

Basically, the best argument going against a college football playoff are their supposed template: The NFL playoffs. If the goal is to determine who the best team was all season (or at the end of the season), then it certainly seems like there is a glitch in the system. Unless the past five years or so have been a complete anomaly. I mean, you can’t compensate for teams not rising to the occasion, that’s on the teams themselves. But is anyone really convinced that any of these teams (with the exception of the Steelers) is the best the NFL had to offer?

Sure, you could call it sour grapes. After all, I went 1-3 in picking winners, and was 3-5 if you include my record against the line. But we had three road teams win, two of them handily (Philly, Arizona) and only one favorite actually show up. It can’t be entirely coincidental that the only home team to win was also the last game of the week. As they watched their counterparts be dispatched by uber-confident wild card teams. It wasn’t exactly a week where just my premonitions were under attack, but rather just conventional wisdom was assaulted by the stampede of parity that has dominated the NFL for about half a decade (and has reached a boiling point now).

I mean, if you’re a die hard NFL fan, aren’t even you having a difficult time taking any of this seriously? Our NFC representative in the Superbowl is going to have no better than a 9-6-1 regular season record. Pragmatics would probably tell you that both the Cardinals (in playoffs by virtue of playing in weakest division) and the Eagles (needed two other losses in week 17 to even qualify for the playoffs) shouldn’t have been in the playoffs in the first place. Essentially, we are looking at the polar opposite of Major League Baseball, where the inequity is palpable but as a result manages to make room for the occasional legitimate upset here and there. That’s opposed to the NFL, in which every team is more or less on equal footing (though some have geographical advantages) but where every team is vulnerable to a loss from virtually every other team. Especially in the playoffs.

As much as it pains me to say, but it seems that the only franchise that manages to live up to expectations as a #1 seed anymore is the Patriots (and also the Eagles the year they played each other). Certainly that sounds asinine on the heels of being on the losing end of the biggest upset in Superbowl history (or one of them), but for three years they came through accordingly. Who else can we say that about? At least they actually made the Superbowl last year and didn’t lose in the fucking divisional round. Jesus.

So yeah, the biggest disappointment over the weekend was that none of it seemed out of the ordinary. Outside of the Panthers clearly sleeping on the Cardinals, whom they only narrowly bested earlier in the season. We mentioned it before but we’re only kidding at the time in suggesting that maybe the Cardinals were pulling the wool over our eyes by losing so many games in such an embarrassing manner at the end of the season. The logic being that although they would (theoretically) be foregoing home field advantage, their opponents would be caught off-guard when an actual NFL team took the field. Again, at the time, we were only kidding.

Well, while I think they were inconceivably lucky throughout the course of that Falcons game, this strategy certainly worked against the Panthers. Who couldn’t have taken the Cardinals any less seriously than they did. Everyone is quick to (rightfully) jump on Delhomme for the six turnovers he alone accounted for, but if the team as a whole had actually approached this game as anything more than a formality, then they might have occasionally put a defender on Larry Fitzgerald, whose at least a top three receiver in the NFL.

But it goes without saying that the turnovers did them in. You might recall that while we were making picks during the regular season, Delhomme’s penchant for multiple turnover games was a constant point of stress for us. Naturally, because my gambling luck has been shit for about four months now, he saved said game for when we actually picked them to cover.

Anyway, that’s the only game we have plans to cover with any manner of depth. I’d like to get onto this website and detail every game in a flummoxed tone that would convey my disbelief, but I can’t lie to you people. That was the only game we watched and were somewhat stunned by, and really it was just a repeated turnovers from a quarterback whose prone to repeatedly turning the ball over. This brings my now abhorrent playoff record (if you include picking winners and against the line) to an epically bad 6-10. With the Eagles accounting for three of those correct picks.

Again, no fantasy commentary, we’ll try to right the ship later tonight.

Oh yeah, the playoff games. As you could probably tell from today’s earlier post, I was woefully unimpressed with the Dolphins-Ravens match-up, particularly the Dolphins performance. Chad Pennington made Phil Mickelson look collected at Wingfoot with his showing yesterday afternoon. If you actually used any of the players from this game in your fantasy challenge, then bully for you, but I still think you’re an idiot. Unless you had Baltimore’s defense (five forced turnovers and a solid effort all around) the outcome probably left something to be desired. God help you if you were enough of a homer to take Chad Pennington.

The follow up was an improvement, but not much of one. Compared to Saturday Sunday’s games were like watching grass grow. Philly came out and gave the Vikings a pretty thorough and convincing beating. If anyone thought that Tavaris Jackson could impede Minnesota’s progress, then you thought right. His game statistically speaking wasn’t the worst of the day (that honor belongs to MVP runner up Chad Pennington), but it really should have been. We are in the playoffs, after all. Even if he wasn’t the worst of the four quarterbacks playing on Sunday, he was the most responsible for his team’s failures. In fact, I will go so far as to say of all the people on the field, he was solely responsible.

On the sidelines Brad Childress should definitely endure some of the blame. Set aside the fact that the offense looks inept and one-dimensional 90% of the time they take the field, and that he is obviously limited by his quarterback options, he didn’t do any adjusting to potentially help aid his struggling QB. Take for example, when there were roughly six minutes left, Minnesota was down two scores and clearly not advancing the ball down field anytime soon, wouldn’t it had made sense to pull Jackson out in favor of Ferotte. I mean, Gus isn’t exactly Tom Brady, but he’s clearly the better pocket passer of the two and thus more likely to hit open receivers when time is of the essence.

But no. They ended up punting, then getting yet another stop out of their defense, then he fumbled the ball on their last offensive possession of the game. All while the coach sat idly by waiting for Tavaris Jackson to do something everyone knows he’s incapable of doing: Leading an NFL team to victory in the waning minutes of a game. I’m sure the Minny fans who came out at the last second to purchase tickets appreciated it.

Still this wasn’t a problem for just this game, but pretty much the entire season. With the slew of quarterbacks set to enter the 2009 draft, I expect Minnesota to address this need direly. In fact, if I’m Detroit, I attempt to take advantage of their situation and trade away the rights of the first overall to them for a slew of middle-tier picks.

In short, I’m not sure how dominant Philly was but rather how dominant Minnesota made them look. The Eagles are going into the Meadowlands next week, to play a Giants team that has since adjusted to being top 10 receiver-less since the last time they crushed them 20-8, shortly after the nightclub self-inflicted gun wound incident. If they resemble the type of team they showed then and last night, I think we’ll be looking at yet another NFC title game for Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, if not, I’m sure a once banged up but rested Giants squad is going to come out swinging.

That’s pretty much it. We’ll try to dedicate a full post to each game this upcoming weekend from now until Friday. Until then, hopefully something relevant and interesting to fantasy football will come to mind so we can try to stay on topic.

And just like that, we registered our first correct pick of the playoff season. It only took us four fucking games to do so. Now that, my friends, is a resume builder. If in the next three years we’re not cleaning streets for a living, then this country deserves all the misfortune it’s currently receiving.

Speaking of which, you know what was really unfortunate? Having to sit through that Miami-Baltimore game. Or rather, sitting through the Miami-Baltimore game because you’re too lazy to do anything else and someone in your house is already watching it. What an eyesore. At the very least can’t we all agree that Chad Pennington finishing tied for second in MVP voting is utter bullshit. He had a nice season and all, was the second highest rated passer in the league and was integral to leading a 1-15 team from a year ago to an 11-5 season. On the other hand he threw for 17-8, his passer rating was 97 and the team’s offense was primarily ground oriented. These are not the makings of someone who should be in serious contention for MVP.

Look, he had a nice season and competition for MVP was fairly paltry in 2008. Virtually everyone who had a chance at it either played themselves out of contention or their teams did it for them (Clinton Portis, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, etc.) and the award was given to Manning by default. But if we’re going to start putting quarterbacks in the running solely because they never fucked anything up significantly, then we might as well have named Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson MVP’s of their respective Superbowl victories. I mean, they are the quarterback’s, that’s the most important position.

Really this is all moot because Manning won in a landslide. And let me state that I believe it is very much deserved (though I don’t know why these awards are only for the regular season). But when Pennington can get more votes than Adrian Peterson, who put the offense on his back and carried them into the playoffs with over 1,800 yards of total offense and Gus Ferotte and Tavaris Jackson doing nothing to distract opposing defenses from him, something is wrong.

I am of the opinion that running backs are easily replaceable, expendable commodities. But Peterson is a game changer and proved it throughout the course of the season. They’ve staged fourth quarter comebacks just by handing him the ball. Do you know how rare that is? Do not give me the fumbles statistic, either. He only lost four of them (nine total), and that’s in part that his team is so reliant on his production. Let me put it this way, if you’re a (fill in mediocre NFL team here) fan you don’t want Peterson because of his four lost fumbles, then you deserve to watch your team lose.

Basically what this vote says, is that no running back will be eligible for the MVP until he goes over 2,000 yards rushing. If Terrell Owens couldn’t come within an inch of winning the award in his first year with the Eagles then no receiver has a realistic shot. No lineman or defensive player has even sniffed the MVP, much less actually win it (we wouldn’t have complained if Jerome Harrison had won). So basically what we’re looking at is an award for best player of the year being specifically for quarterbacks. We’ll see if statistical production is improved throughout the league next season and if that has any effect on league perspective, but if this proves to be emblematic I’m really going to dislike the trend.

Back with recaps of the two games later.

So you may have noticed the site acting a tad wonky as of late, obviously this is beyond my control (and apparently beyond my employers) but technical issues have been plaguing not just this site, but the entire network. Thankfully this is, you know, a fantasy football site. And no one is really playing in a real fantasy football league at the moment.

Never the less, this proved costly (or as costly as a inaccessible blog can be) because I never got to publicly make my picks for yesterday’s games. Well, let me kill the suspense: I lost. On both accounts. I could lie, but if you’ve picked up on the tone and tenor of this site, you could probably determine that I was going to pick both Atlanta and Indianapolis to cover their 1 point spreads. It is a tad ironic though. Not being able to post my lines and everything. Because I actually had a friend in Vegas lay down a parlay for me with all four playoff games. For once I actually have money on the games slated for the weekend, and I am unable to pontificate about them on this here site.

Anyhow, as far as the Atlanta game is concerned, I threw out the old “NFC South sucks donkey dick on the road” credo in favor of the “The Cardinals are inept against anyone who isn’t in their own shittastic division” theory. This seemed reasonable. Mind you, Minnesota blew the doors off of Arizona’s defense in Glendale just four weeks ago. I assumed with Atlanta having a balanced offensive attack that hinged on the run, they would be able to get the job done at University of Phoenix Stadium (handily the worst named sporting venue this side of Papa John’s Stadium).

As it turned out, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Their offense looked sporadic and downright frightened at times. I could get into all the reasons as to why I feel slighted as a result of this game, but without getting too technical, let me just say this: It took not only a safety, two sixty yard plus touchdowns and a defensive touchdown for the Cardinals to win, but also the greatest game ever played by the Cardinals in the franchise’s history in Phoenix. I should have known I was fucked when everyone on CBS’ pregame picked the Cardinals to win except for Matt Millen. You know you’re in trouble when the architect of the first and only 0-16 team in the league’s history is agreeing with you.

As for last night’s primetime game, it was yet another playoff failure by the Colts who always seemed to go unnoticed because they won one Superbowl. This marks only the second time I’ve bet on Peyton Manning and the Colts to win, and also the second time they disappointed me (2005 against the Steelers in the playoffs was the first, I found the schmuckiest of Steelers fans to give me Indy at even money).

What specifically happened in this game? Other than Sproles proved himself to be an every-down back and officially surpassed Tomlinson as the better option and it ended in overtime? I have no idea since I was busy eating and carousing at Elevator and didn’t watch it all that closely. (Mmmm, Crab Manicotti). But we should really stop acting surprised when the Colts loses in the playoffs. Going all the way back to the 2001 season when a Chad Pennington Jets team curb-stomped them in the wild card round to the tune of 41-0, Indy has usually been a disappointment.

If you’re wondering why I went with the Colts over San Diego, the answer is quite simple: San Diego hasn’t beaten anyone good all season. They’ve had some horrendous home losses and their defense is still pretty soft. But being at home against an Indy team that appears to be running on fumes (see the much narrower than the 31-21 score against the Lions would lead you to believe). Basically, if I had any foresight or an ounce of originality in my body, I would have went with San Diego. But I don’t, so I didn’t.

Anyhow, that’s 0-2, killing our dream of 11-0 for 2008 pretty hastily. If you want to know who to bet against for this afternoon’s games, I am taking Philly at -3 and Miami at +3.5 (the former seems to be much more popular of a sentiment that the latter).

That’s pretty much it. We’ll get back to some fantasy commentary come tomorrow morning.

Happy new year’s, kids. I hope all is well with you in 2009 and that the evening ends up as eventful as you want it to be. We’ll probably end up going out and drinking and whatnot. But we’d be lying if we said we weren’t tempted to stay home and watch what is scheduled to arrive via Netflix today. Odds are we would if it was offered in Blu-Ray.

But enough about social endeavors, let us get to what this site is going to look like come playoff time. Which I suppose is now. Basically, we’re going to be posting at the same frequency (roughly 1.3 times per weekday) but we’ll try to make everything a little more detailed. That is, instead of throwing every game into a single post, we’ll attempt to post on each game individually. Whether we’re going to be able to do this for wild card week remains to be proven.

Also, even though the fantasy football season ended for something like 95% of you on or before week 17, we’ll still be dolling out fantasy advice along with our picks against the line. If you were fortunate enough to find a league that continues into the NFL playoffs or if you’re like us and participating in this NFL.com playoff challenge (more on this later), then maybe you can get something out of it. If not, then don’t read. That’s fine. See what I care. Pssh, whatever. I didn’t want you to read, anyways.

As for line picks, the goal is 11-0. But the realistic expectation is above .500. For whatever reason, we’re feeling confident about calling these games. Which means we’re staring down the barrel of an 0-11 season. As ridiculous as the movie was, Two For The Money brought up a decent point (at least in terms of sports gambling) in that when you begin to get overconfident in where to place your money, that’s when you start to bottom out.

Anyhow, we’ll start posting on them tomorrow, and I’m sure everyone’s top priority on New Year’s Day isn’t watching meaningless college bowl games, but reading this site for gambling/fantasy advice.

If you’re wondering what our plans were for the off-season, I’m sorry, but I’m going to have to leave you spinning in the wind. Because I haven’t the slightest clue, myself. We’ll probably write plenty on the draft and off-season acquisitions/signings that will effect the incoming fantasy season. But, Jesus, everyday? Is that even remotely possible? We’ll probably end up resorting to our more satirical posts, like the ongoing adventures of Larry Johnson, who may have and epic six months of downtime on the horizon.

So, line picks, fantasy recommendations, NFL.com fantasy playoff challenge, 2009 draft. If we can’t find the material to post consistently, then it might be time for us to find another tertiary income stream.

Back with an overview of the NFL.com fantasy playoff challenge later today.

We’ll just come out and apologize for the lack of fantasy perspective in this post, we’ll get back to our roots later today.

Looking back on what I wrote yesterday, it was certainly an eventful week of NFL football. In fact, unless you include the end of college football’s 2007 season, I can’t recall a more eventful weekend. It was the perfect storm of match-ups, confidence and ineptitude. Those only come around every so often. It almost makes me wish that while I was at that bar on Sunday, I would’ve paid closer attention to the full slate of games, rather than ignoring everything else to crack stupid jokes about the awfulness of the Lions. Who at this point seem to be so pitiable that everyone is afraid to make fun of them. It’s an unusual phenomenon for the NFL set, really.

But I think Lions fans really need to quit bitching already. Need I remind you, you went 4-0 in the pre-season? How quickly we all forget our accomplishments when we’re looking for something to complain about.

In all seriousness though, I’m only half kidding. Going 4-0 in the pre-season before the same season that you go 0-16 has to stand as one of the greater achievements from the Matt Millen era. He, Marinelli and the rest of the team that isn’t Kevin Smith or Calvin Johnson (and really even the two of them) have to be feeling pretty ecstatic about the fact that it was such a monumental weekend of football, because it doesn’t feel like this is getting quite the attention it deserves.

But onward and upward, Lions fans. For 2008, to the best of my knowledge you have two first rounders, at least one second rounder, two third rounders and two sixth rounders (Thanks Dallas!). So a turnaround could come abruptly (See: Falcons, Dolphins, Ravens in the post-season) if they draft properly. I recommend either getting a real coach (*coughBillCowhercough*) to oversee the draft or bringing in a consultant to make sure you do not draft Michael Crabtree 1st overall. Do not get me wrong, Crabtree has difference making potential in the NFL. But none of you need him. And if you’re going to draft him, for the love of Christ have a trade lined up before you do. With the Lions this season and given that this year’s class is exceptionally deep, quantity is just as important as quality.

But if they can’t get a coach with a respectable track record with these sort of things, I recommend bringing in a consultant. And not a celebrity consultant like the Jets did with Larry David. I mean a real NFL adviser. Some grizzled vet who lives and breathes NFL prospects. They really cannot overpay this person. Because if they do not capitalize on that heist of the Cowboys earlier in the season, if you’re a Lions fan you can officially lose all hope.

Alright, enough about the Lions.

Speaking of the Dolphins, I haven’t paid as much attention to this story as I should have for a couple reasons: 1) It seems like it happens twice every season at this point, but never to this degree. That is, that a team makes a miraculous turnaround from one season to the next, usually with the introduction of a new coach. 2) I haven’t seen the Dolphins play a single down of live football all season.

Never the less, the rebound is quite remarkable. It’s going to be a shame when they fire Tony Sparano in under five years. Because that’s what NFL teams do. They bring in a coach, anoint him as the savior, they inevitably hit a rough patch some years down the line or fail to follow-up the success of the turnaround season with similar results the next year, the team and city panic and fire the coach because he is the easiest person to blame and the people running football are generally ex-players who’ve been hit in the head too many times and have no short-term memory. But hey, it was a good run. I don’t know, maybe Bill Parcells will bring a modicum of sanity to the front office and NFL teams will follow suit, but I’m not all that optimistic that we’ll see this happen. Immediate results are the name of the day in the NFL.

I was watching some NFL show on ESPN, as is the furthest thing from my wont. And I can’t remember who it was, but they were talking about the Browns firing Crennel, and whether or not they will be patient with the next coach that comes in. Now the Browns are probably too patient, at least compared to the rest of the league. But it isn’t a matter of a franchise being patient anymore, it’s just a matter of being reasonable. Will this team give their newly hired coach a fair shake or will they demand Belichick like results within the first season? I actually think what the Dolphins did this season will just raise the bar for new coaches. Improve our team’s record by ten wins in the first season or you’re fucking outta here, pal.

What we do find strange is that of all the coaches that are bound to be preemptively fired (for now, just Eric Mangini), Wade Philips is not one of them. Here is a coach with what most would deem one of the five most talented teams in the NFL (I do not necessarily agree, but whatever), his season ends with them playing for the final playoff spot and it results in them being humiliated on what was basically national television, he plays for one who fancies himself to be the shrewdest owner in the NFL…and he gets to keep his job?

Now, I do not think much of any of the parties involved here. Be it Jones, Phillips or the collective offensive and defensive units of the Cowboys. But everyone else (including Jones) would tell you that the ‘boys are sporting the best of everything. Phillips is the only person here who isn’t a marquee name and everyone would agree he’s at least partially to blame…so what gives? Is Jones still intent on eventually handing the reins over to Jason Garrett, but can’t justify it right now?

He can do whatever he wants, but Jerry Jones likes high profile names and media attention, Phillips offers neither of those things nor does he seem to be having a positive effect on the team. And the only explanation I can come up with is Garrett’s stock is probably even lower, especially after Romo and Owens question the play-calling from Sunday’s decimation. Which I find kind of hysterical. I’ve mentioned several times that the infatuation Jerry Jones has for Jason Garrett is inexplicably baffling. He has no credentials, no experience, no track-record as a player or even an assistant, and his star seems completely man made by one person: his employer.

But at the same time, you do not lose 44-6 and pin it solely on a coordinator. As much as I believe Jerry Jones is overrating Garrett (and anyone else who’s bought into the hype), I certainly doubt he drew up three plays for Tony Romo to fumble the ball and throw a pick-six. I mean, he’s bad but he’s no saboteur, at least I don’t think he is. Tony Romo just isn’t that good, I don’t know why this is so hard for everyone to except. But yeah, maybe if you publicly complain about the offensive scheme post-game, no one will remember how terrible you executed while the game was taking place. Nice PR job, Rosenhaus.

Anyhow, I think between this and yesterday’s post that should cover just about everything. Well, except for the Raiders beating the Buccaneers. Something we didn’t even consider but apparently we should have since they lost three straight heading into that game. Beat the Raiders and you become the third team from your division to make the playoffs, it’s that simple. And they pissed away the playoffs because that proved to be too daunting of a task. After looking at the record for west coast teams traveling east, all you can really say is that they were a fraud to begin with, and didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs in the first place. One of the few instances of justice actually being served in the NFL.

Back with a top five from week 17 later today.

Naturally, we got a quirky finale to a quirky season. The teams contending for the playoffs that you expected to show up failed to do so, and those that you had diminished expectations for managed to tear the roof off of whatever building they were playing in. This seems to be true for everyone, of course, except for the Broncos. Whom everyone — except for me, of course — fully expected to shit the bed, and the shit the bed they did. Actually, I’m not sure you can consider what the Broncos did failing to meet expectations. They’ve had the second worst defense all season this side of the Lions.

Speaking of which, managed to reach the 0-16 milestone, becoming the first team in NFL history to do so. Some of us were skeptical that the Packers would actually come through with a win, as they’ve been tremendously disappointing themselves (even more so than the Lions, to be honest). But no, the Lions proved just how inept they were, failing to capitalize on opportunity after opportunity, all the way until the bitter end when Ryan Grant fumbled the ball ten yards downfield in between five defenders, only for some receiver to squeeze in and recover it right at the goal line. In all fairness to them they were looking mighty disheveled after the 70 yard touchdown reception from Donald Driver.

We actually dragged ourselves to a bar to watch this game (the first time that’s happened all season), and we were amazed at the lack of concern with a team about to make the record books. If you do not know already, we live in Columbus, Ohio. Which is basically a homogenization of Browns fans, Bengals fans, Steelers fans, then a handful of fans for teams like the Packers, Cowboys and bandwagon Patriots fans. This particular bar though, consisted mainly of Bengals fans, as their game wasn’t being aired locally in favor of the Browns-Steelers slugfest. Now, I’m not usually one to criticize, but the only game more pitiable than the Lions-Packers was the Chiefs-Bengals.

At least in the Lions game, we had a team putting the finishing touches on the worst era for a professional franchise, potentially ever. And a team hoping to fend off embarrassment. The Bengals-Chiefs game offered nothing in the way of intrigue or hope or entertainment. It was just two teams with no hope for 2009 going through the motions and waiting for it to be over. Now I understand that everyone has “their team”, and that usually takes precedence over everything else.

But I don’t much care where I reside, when the Chiefs-Bengals is on 40% of the televisions, and that glorious Packers-Lions matchup for the record books is relegated to just one television you could fit inside an Apollo shuttle, then everything is wrong. The owners of the establishment, the people watching the Bengals game, the city, the state, the world. Anywhere and to anyone this makes sense to, is wrong. It also says something about Bengals fans that they would show up in mass to bother watching what “their team” is currently producing. What I’m trying to say is, I need to move.

Take heed though, Lions fans. As while you may have just finished the worst season in NFL history, you were by no means the worst team. No, that honor belongs to the other team in Ohio: the Cleveland Browns.

Your eternal optimist might say, “at least they didn’t go all season without scoring a touchdown”, but they would be conveniently overlooking the fact that in a loss, Detroit put up more points in Green Bay than the Browns had put up in the last six games. In short, they were right to clean house while the game was going on. For all their potential, they managed to end the season as the worst team in the league, and that usually starts at the top.

But enough about the failures of the NFL, lets talk about the winners. The Panthers clinched a bye with a last second field goal, the Vikings clinched the division with the same. The Dolphins and Ravens both clinched playoff births with wins over the Jets and Jags, effectively barring an 11-5 Patriots team from the playoffs in favor of an 8-8 AFC West Champion. The Bears cost themselves a playoff spot because they couldn’t beat the 8-8 Texans (the team that represents what the NFL wants every team to be) who along with the Cowboys handed over the final wild card spot to the once lowly Eagles. As in, last week the Eagles were pretty lowly.

I mentioned last week that these two teams were of the more erratic variety offered by the NFL, and holy shit did the Cowboys prove me right. Really, it wasn’t so much that the Eagles just came out gangbusters thrashing a team that everyone has a love-hate complex with. No, Dallas simply played the least inspired football of all season relative to their talent (well, outside of the Browns, of course).

Really it shouldn’t come as any surprise. For the past two seasons, the Dallas Cowboys have played football rather haphazardly. Sporting what’s akin to a “too cool for school” approach to the game. That came back on them ten-fold last night in Philly. You could really pin the blame on three people for the loss, which is remarkable considering how bad it was: Tony Romo, Pacman Jones and Wade Phillips. Romo, whose clearly never going to be the quarterback everyone wants him to be, had two turnovers that resulted in defensive touchdowns, which wasn’t exactly shocking considering the game had playoff implications. He’s been doing it all season, but scrambling around in the backfield with the ball extended two feet away from his body finally caught up to him.

Pacman Jones was responsible for an unnecessary roughness penalty and a turnover that resulted in ten points for the Eagles late in the second quarter, effectively taking whatever wind was left in Dallas’ sails. And Wade Phillips did absolutely nothing to counteract all of this on the sideline. In all, the team had five turnovers (four fumbles and one interception), Romo and Pacman were responsible for four of them.

But really, the entire team looked indifferent. Part of that is the players a team like Dallas actively seeks out, and part of that is the result of ineffective coaching. Let me be on record as saying that hiring Jason Garrett to coach this team will be an unmitigated disaster, and we’re not going to see a turnaround unless they can bring in Bill Cowher or someone of that ilk to manage the clusterfuck of egomaniacs Jerry Jones currently employs.

As a casual Eagles fan I know my sole reaction to all of this is supposed to be glee, but when Romo fumbled for the second time and slammed his fists into the same ground that his face was buried in, we really thought we might see some carnage on the sidelines. It was painful to watch, especially if you know any Cowboys fans or were in close proximity to any at the time. All I can say is, do not listen to our fantasy advice any more. The season is over for 90% of us so it’s moot anyways. But we’re wrong much more frequently than we’re right, and it’s at a point now where we either have to convince our employer to change the URL, or recuse ourselves from Talking Fantasy Football altogether.

Anyhow, we apologize for the lack of fantasy discussion. We’ll try to post again later today to compensate.

If you actually sat through last night’s game and it wasn’t redeemed by either the outcome or fantasy success for you (we can’t imagine anyone with any of these players were feeling good about aspect of the game), rest assure that neither of these teams should make the playoffs. And if Chicago does manage to qualify for the post-season (needing a win against Houston and a Vikings loss against the Giants), then you can take comfort in the fact that they won’t make it out of the wild card round.

Maybe I was still embittered from my fantasy football catastrophe the night before, and maybe since we only watched the second half of the game we never fully settled in with this matchup. Whatever it was, we were bored as shit watching an overtime game between the two oldest rivals in the NFL. I think the fact that we had such high hopes for Green Bay and the fact that they have been such a tremendous letdown probably factors into why we were so turned off while watching this last night. When you publicly state that a team is destined for competitiveness and they turn around on you and lose to the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars, it can result in some pretty strange reactions. Mine is to loathe every game this team plays from here on out.

Really, I can’t tell if it would be more depressing for Detroit or Green Bay to lose next week. Detroit, on one hand, is facing massive layoffs in the face of the economic crisis and their team is on the verge of going 0-16, not to mention they are the first ever 0-15 team in the history of the league. Rob Marinelli looks about ready to breakdown crying every time he is interviewed and now he’s being ridiculed at press conferences for nepotism that probably isn’t helping matters.

Alright, it’s probably the Lions. But can you imagine the Green Bay faithful if they lose to the sob story described above. They haven’t lost to the Lions at home since 1991, they’ve lost five straight games to give them a current 5-10 record and they no longer have the Good ‘ol boy to validate themselves. Things could get ugly. I’m almost rooting for the Packers to win just because they’re the home team. And trust me, if Green Bay hinged on a single industry that is about a year away from total collapse, I probably would. But we’ve done a complete 180 from yesterday. We’ve gone from considering this game must see television to regarding it as one of the more depressing sporting events of the past decade. There are no winners in this race.

Anyhow, nice job Packers. You’ve become such a sad sack yourself that we can’t root against you in a game with an 0-15 team. How is this even remotely possible? If you’re looking for a coach that deserves to be fired, it is probably Mike McCarthy and whoever their defensive coordinator is. Because for the most part, Aaron Rodgers, the guy everyone was so hesitant to give the keys to the engine to o in the first place, has not been the problem. In fact he’s the 8th highest rated passer in the league. That’s a higher rating than either their running game or any aspect of their defense. So yeah, feel free to can Mike McCarthy. You will hear no self-righteousness from this website.

Anyhow, as hinted at before, the fantasy aspect of this game was pretty fucking terrible. Unless you had Robbie Gould or Greg Olsen (and maybe Aaron Rodgers), you were probably hoping for more. And even then, Olsen caught 5 catches for 49 yards, but one was for a touchdown so it’s a redeemable performance for a tight end. Of course, if you’re starting Greg Olsen as your tight end then you’re obsolete to the rest of your league anyways. Gould is a kicker and put up a minimum of 8 points in most leagues, which is stellar for a kicker. Aaron Rodgers threw for 2 touchdowns and 260 yards with one interception to boot.

Actually, upon further review, Ryan Grant finally came through for his owners with a receiving touchdown and about 100 yards of total offense. Congratulations, to all of you who drafted him in the second round. You probably didn’t even start him do to prolonged ineptitude this season and because they were playing the Bears, but if you had the stomach (or lack of options) for it, he finally came produced like you expected in week 16. And he averaged 2.4 ypc to do so.

In other words, unless you were in a close game to begin with, this contest provided virtually no satisfaction. I like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense, but he completed 24 passes to ten different people. This is a nightmare for fantasy owners. It’s basically the receiving version of run-by-committee started by the Broncos after Clinton Portis left town.

Luckily the Packers aren’t a playoff team. Otherwise this might be the new trend that bucks conventional wisdom in the NFL. You know, like putting the ball in the hands of your best playmakers is a winning proposition. Not to say it isn’t the best option for Green Bay to spread the ball around. With all due respect to Greg Jennings, he isn’t exactly Jerry Rice. But there are too many game changers in the league at receiver and tight end for this to make fantasy football an even more luck based endeavor than it already is. Just because the Packers do not have any doesn’t mean no one else does.

Oh, now that all the games are wrapped up (and we forgot to do so yesterday), we have to present the Tim Hightower Talking Fantasy Football Award winner from week 16. This person we’ve never heard of before, most likely because he plays for the Raiders and sports three names to his resume. He went to school at UTEP and managed to net three receptions for one touchdown and return one more on a kickoff. Your Tim Hightower Award winner for week 16 is none other than Johnny Lee Higgins. Congrats, Johnny, on rising from the depths of obscurity to make a name for yourself in a meaningless week 16 game and for pissing off Ronald Curry owners everywhere.

Back with five letdown performances either later today or early tomorrow.

This is our second post of NFL picks for the upcoming weekend, you can read the first half here. Or just scroll down for a millisecond, whichever seems more logical to you.

(Home team in caps)

DENVER -9.5 Oakland
Oakland is actually the safer bet here. If they can score over 20 points against anyone just by controlling the ball and not committing errant turnovers, it’s Denver. That Broncos defense is about as imposing as a mouse to a lion, I don’t think I’ve ever seen one team so lopsided on the two sides of the ball. They’ll still win and it won’t be as nearly close as it seems, but expect Oakland to get in the endzone a couple times just by ripping off 15 yard chunks on the ground with whichever running back(s) are not injured this week.

ATLANTA -1 Carolina
These NFC south teams are ridiculously even and the road team always gets shellacked. Not to mention Carolina really should have lost the last two weeks against Detroit and Oakland, because those two teams are that fucking horrendous. Take Atlanta for the win, unless you expect Carolina to win out this season on one of the greater lucky streaks akin to the Ravens circa 2006.

New York Giants -3 ARIZONA
Game of the week by any measure. Great offenses, the best front seven in the league and the dog is at home. The Giants are the better team amongst these two (and we are always rooting for them, what with our 20/1 bet on them to win the Superbowl), but the Cards are playing possessed (particularly on offense). Personally, I see New York holding court and coming out of the desert with a win, but we’re not going to be surprised if Eli Manning of 2006 resurrects for one of those spontaneous 3 interception games.

Washington -3 SEATTLE
Take Washington. Sure, Seattle has Branch and Hasselbeck back, but neither are at full capacity. Other than that, the only thing Seattle has going for them is that they’re at home, and Washington has to contend with rowdy north-westerners. But if you recall, The Skins won all three divisional road games and although they never blow anyone out, winning by four is a modest victory by anyone’s definition. Actually, the way the NFL is going these days that will start to look like a blowout.

SAN DIEGO -3 Indianapolis
Am I missing something here? Indy is actually getting points? Why, because they have to fly cross country. I’ll grant you that going east to west fucks one up a lot more than vice-versa, but this San Diego team just looks like they don’t give a shit. Is it just the lack of Merriman? Is Tomlinson getting old? Is the O-line disappointing? I have no idea because I live in Columbus and have only had maybe one Chargers game available to me all season. Still, I only have one rule: when a Manning led Colts team has ripped off 3 straight impressive wins and they are playing in prime time against a 4-6 team, I’m taking the Colts.

NEW ORLEANS -2.5 Green Bay
No idea, but if forced to choose I am taking the Saints. All these NFC teams seem to struggle stringing together two impressive wins and the Packers just baptized the Bears last Sunday. Despite the Saints seeming ineptitude as of late, of all the teams in the NFL, they’re the most dysfunctional on the road relative to at home. And this game is at home. I’d give the points, though I think the Packers are the superior team in almost every way. Sadly, with the NFL, that doesn’t seem to matter anymore.

Back to fantasy tomorrow, where I doll out half-assed recommendations.

There isn’t much to say about tonight’s game from a fantasy perspective. Unless you have Houshmenzadeh or Willie Parker, you’re probably reluctant to start anyone from either of these teams given recent and/or season long performances. The circumstances being what they are, naturally you’re feeling a little more confident with Steelers on your roster than Bengals. But Roethlisberger spreads the ball out so much and has been playing so poorly as of late, plugging Nate Washington, Heinz Ward, Santonio Holmes or Roethlisberger himself brings out a little trepidation in your average fantasy owner.

The Bengals have no recourse for fantasy outside of Housh. At this point I’m benching Chad Johnson in favor of some middle-tier player like Donald Driver or Vincent Jackson. The running game is atrocious. Somehow they’ve managed to end up with both running backs from the past two seasons that were each getting over 70% of the carries for their team, but still no one wanted in Cedric Benson (last season with the Bears) and Chris Perry (beginning of this season). No one not in a sixteen person league that starts two quarterbacks is playing Kirk Fitzpatrick, and even then one might feel inclined to start Matt Leinart and hope for a Kurt Warner finger injury.

Really, the safest bet for fantasy in the matchup is Pittsburgh’s D (which should just decimate that Bengals offensive line and receiving corps.), followed closely by Jeff Reed (As far as kickers go, he should have a fairly stellar game).

So, with that in mind, we’re going to try something new and pick the games this week against the line. Considering fantasy is just an abridged form of gambling (at least for most people, participating in a fantasy league with no buy-in really shouldn’t be done by anyone over the age of 15), we’re going to consider this loosely fitting for the URL of this website.

A few words of advice, we never gamble on the NFL when we are in Vegas. The parity and unpredictability of the NFL that we harp on so regularly is basically the reason why. When Houston can beat Indy and no one is even remotely surprised, it says something about the nature of gambling on it. That is, you might as well play roulette. We recommend gambling on the NBA, college football and basketball if you ever head to the desert. But since this is an NFL site, we’ll at least stay in the same league as what we’re supposed to be ranting about.

(Home team in caps)

Cincinnati +10.5 PITTSBURGH
At home used to mean something for Pittsburgh, but back to back losses to Indy and Washington make this line actually tricky. In short, we have to take Pitt and lay the points because you never want to put your money in the hands of a Bengals team starting Kirk Fitzpatrick on the road. But I wouldn’t feel confident about either one. If you are looking for an overloaded cheap parlay, take Pitt and hope Jonathan Joseph continues to drop interceptions.

CLEVELAND -3 Houston
Jesus Christ. So a team that came within a wide right Bills field goal of setting an NFL record for blown leads, that is starting what is basically a rookie quarterback, is giving up three to Houston? Yes. And what’s even worse, I am taking them to cover. If I take Houston I am relying on a huge performance from either Andre Johnson or Steve Slaton, considering they’re relying on one of two inept quarterbacks and a shaky offensive line, I’m taking the home team and laying the points.

DALLAS -10 San Fransisco
Vegas has really excelled at setting these lines. This feels like suicide, but I’m taking San Fran to cover. They have an underrated defense, a quarterback that can get Vernon Davis the ball and one that Mike Singletary won’t start marinating for dinner at halftime; and Dallas just hasn’t impressed me, even in the road win against Washington. We do not trust Romo and his busted right pinkie and think the receivers are tremendously overrated (Specifically Owens, though never underestimate the power of imagined slights when it comes to angry wide receivers and former teams). Not to mention Jason Garrett’s “genius” has yet to inspire. We’ll go against the grain and take the points with the Niners.

Tampa Bay -8.5 DETROIT
Ugh, we think the blown win against Carolina took whatever wind Detroit may have had left in their sails and believe this team is going 0-16. Tampa’s vying for the division and a wild card, trust that Gruden is not going to let them blow this game. Take Tampa, and feel like shit when they win by seven.

TENNESSEE -6.5 New York Jets
The Titans have been great against the spread this season. They are probably the most efficient team, still undefeated and are maximizing their talent unlike anyone I’ve seen this year. Sure, the Jets pulled off an improbable win against the Pats, but the Patriots defense fluctuates in performance and I don’t think the Jets have the horses to contend with those running backs and O-line from the Titans. Lay the points and wait for Indy to beat them the second time around.

Buffalo -3 KANSAS CITY
This is a good litmus test for both teams. Whoever loses could very well lose out the last six weeks. We’re taking Buffalo but this is exactly the type of game that Herm Edwards pulls out of his ass. My advice is to stay away from it.

Chicago -8.5 ST. LOUIS
St. Louis is back to their JV ways without Stephen Jackson, Scott Linehan can take a sigh of relief in that he’s not as bad as everyone initially thought. Lay the points. Chicago will bounce back from the drubbing they took from the Packers.

MIAMI -1.5 New England
This is a tough one because you’re basically picking a winner. New England under Belichick is 16-1 after losses. But if Cassel can throw for over 400 yards and they still lose, under what circumstances do they beat a Miami team with a pretty sick pass rush? Miami’s a middle-tier team at home and they feel due for a loss after that close one against Oakland. I say take the point and go with the road team.

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 Minnesota
Two teams with overrated defenses that can’t throw the ball. Flipping a coin is going to make this decision a lot easier, but we’ll take the team with the better running game along with the points in the Vikings. Expect a close one since both coaches are basically playing for their jobs at this point.

BALTIMORE -1.5 Philadelphia
If it wasn’t for last week we would take the Eagles in a heartbeat. But something was exposed along the way and with Westbrook still limping around, we’re taking the Ravens who start the rookie quarterback from a 1-AA school to beat our favorite team. God help us.

Alright, since there are no byes from last week on out, we’re going to break this off into two posts and cover the 4pm EST. games through the Monday night game in a second post later today.