Fantasy Football

There isn’t much to say about tonight’s game from a fantasy perspective. Unless you have Houshmenzadeh or Willie Parker, you’re probably reluctant to start anyone from either of these teams given recent and/or season long performances. The circumstances being what they are, naturally you’re feeling a little more confident with Steelers on your roster than Bengals. But Roethlisberger spreads the ball out so much and has been playing so poorly as of late, plugging Nate Washington, Heinz Ward, Santonio Holmes or Roethlisberger himself brings out a little trepidation in your average fantasy owner.

The Bengals have no recourse for fantasy outside of Housh. At this point I’m benching Chad Johnson in favor of some middle-tier player like Donald Driver or Vincent Jackson. The running game is atrocious. Somehow they’ve managed to end up with both running backs from the past two seasons that were each getting over 70% of the carries for their team, but still no one wanted in Cedric Benson (last season with the Bears) and Chris Perry (beginning of this season). No one not in a sixteen person league that starts two quarterbacks is playing Kirk Fitzpatrick, and even then one might feel inclined to start Matt Leinart and hope for a Kurt Warner finger injury.

Really, the safest bet for fantasy in the matchup is Pittsburgh’s D (which should just decimate that Bengals offensive line and receiving corps.), followed closely by Jeff Reed (As far as kickers go, he should have a fairly stellar game).

This is Jeff Reed...Never have we felt better about not having any fantasy players in a sort of but not really televised game.

So, with that in mind, we’re going to try something new and pick the games this week against the line. Considering fantasy is just an abridged form of gambling (at least for most people, participating in a fantasy league with no buy-in really shouldn’t be done by anyone over the age of 15), we’re going to consider this loosely fitting for the URL of this website.

A few words of advice, we never gamble on the NFL when we are in Vegas. The parity and unpredictability of the NFL that we harp on so regularly is basically the reason why. When Houston can beat Indy and no one is even remotely surprised, it says something about the nature of gambling on it. That is, you might as well play roulette. We recommend gambling on the NBA, college football and basketball if you ever head to the desert. But since this is an NFL site, we’ll at least stay in the same league as what we’re supposed to be ranting about.

(Home team in caps)

Cincinnati +10.5 PITTSBURGH
At home used to mean something for Pittsburgh, but back to back losses to Indy and Washington make this line actually tricky. In short, we have to take Pitt and lay the points because you never want to put your money in the hands of a Bengals team starting Kirk Fitzpatrick on the road. But I wouldn’t feel confident about either one. If you are looking for an overloaded cheap parlay, take Pitt and hope Jonathan Joseph continues to drop interceptions.

CLEVELAND -3 Houston
Jesus Christ. So a team that came within a wide right Bills field goal of setting an NFL record for blown leads, that is starting what is basically a rookie quarterback, is giving up three to Houston? Yes. And what’s even worse, I am taking them to cover. If I take Houston I am relying on a huge performance from either Andre Johnson or Steve Slaton, considering they’re relying on one of two inept quarterbacks and a shaky offensive line, I’m taking the home team and laying the points.

DALLAS -10 San Fransisco
Vegas has really excelled at setting these lines. This feels like suicide, but I’m taking San Fran to cover. They have an underrated defense, a quarterback that can get Vernon Davis the ball and one that Mike Singletary won’t start marinating for dinner at halftime; and Dallas just hasn’t impressed me, even in the road win against Washington. We do not trust Romo and his busted right pinkie and think the receivers are tremendously overrated (Specifically Owens, though never underestimate the power of imagined slights when it comes to angry wide receivers and former teams). Not to mention Jason Garrett’s “genius” has yet to inspire. We’ll go against the grain and take the points with the Niners.

Tampa Bay -8.5 DETROIT
Ugh, we think the blown win against Carolina took whatever wind Detroit may have had left in their sails and believe this team is going 0-16. Tampa’s vying for the division and a wild card, trust that Gruden is not going to let them blow this game. Take Tampa, and feel like shit when they win by seven.

TENNESSEE -6.5 New York Jets
The Titans have been great against the spread this season. They are probably the most efficient team, still undefeated and are maximizing their talent unlike anyone I’ve seen this year. Sure, the Jets pulled off an improbable win against the Pats, but the Patriots defense fluctuates in performance and I don’t think the Jets have the horses to contend with those running backs and O-line from the Titans. Lay the points and wait for Indy to beat them the second time around.

Buffalo -3 KANSAS CITY
This is a good litmus test for both teams. Whoever loses could very well lose out the last six weeks. We’re taking Buffalo but this is exactly the type of game that Herm Edwards pulls out of his ass. My advice is to stay away from it.

Chicago -8.5 ST. LOUIS
St. Louis is back to their JV ways without Stephen Jackson, Scott Linehan can take a sigh of relief in that he’s not as bad as everyone initially thought. Lay the points. Chicago will bounce back from the drubbing they took from the Packers.

MIAMI -1.5 New England
This is a tough one because you’re basically picking a winner. New England under Belichick is 16-1 after losses. But if Cassel can throw for over 400 yards and they still lose, under what circumstances do they beat a Miami team with a pretty sick pass rush? Miami’s a middle-tier team at home and they feel due for a loss after that close one against Oakland. I say take the point and go with the road team.

JACKSONVILLE -2.5 Minnesota
Two teams with overrated defenses that can’t throw the ball. Flipping a coin is going to make this decision a lot easier, but we’ll take the team with the better running game along with the points in the Vikings. Expect a close one since both coaches are basically playing for their jobs at this point.

BALTIMORE -1.5 Philadelphia
If it wasn’t for last week we would take the Eagles in a heartbeat. But something was exposed along the way and with Westbrook still limping around, we’re taking the Ravens who start the rookie quarterback from a 1-AA school to beat our favorite team. God help us.

Alright, since there are no byes from last week on out, we’re going to break this off into two posts and cover the 4pm EST. games through the Monday night game in a second post later today.