Fantasy Football

Something has happened in the past couple weeks that seems to have made Baltimore the overwhelming favorite to win this game. Not in Vegas, of course, but in the media and just general public perception. Go read a neutral message board where this game is the topic. Overwhelmingly it seems that everyone is favoring Balmer. No idea how this happened, but I imagine it has something to do with Kerry Collins and the last time he faced the Ravens in the post-season.

Just assume Giants fans are laughing their sick asses off at the Titans predicament.

Baltimore’s Outlook: Sporting the best in insanely energetic and intimidating defenses, the Ravens have made a resurgence of sort by acquiring a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over once every three possessions (whudda thunk it?). This has seemed to ignite the rest of the team, knowing their not going to be crippled by the worst starter they have, who just happens to also play the most important position. It’s a new day in Baltimore.

This team, much like the Eagles and Chargers, are peaking at exactly the right time. There defense is almost guaranteed to force turnovers, and as stated above, with Kerry Collins at the helm for the opposing offense, I can understand why most in Baltimore are feeling confident. Great defense, multiple threats at running back and a serviceable passing game often make for a Superbowl champion.

However, there is this little notion of having a rookie quarterback that should put more on edge. Sure, he’s a vast improvement over Kyle Boller or or Anthony Wright or Chris Redman (basically any quarterback that has ever played for the Ravens not named Vinny Testaverde), but he’s still a rookie. Regardless of how promising he looks. And a rookie on the road against a statistically better defense than the one he plays with can often be cause for concern for a team in the post-season.

Tennessee’s Outlook: Best record in the NFL, top five running game, top three coach and top three defense, so why is everyone picking against them? Weak close to the season would be my best guess. Sure, some of it was malaise and injury (notably: Albert Haynesworth), but that is definitely going to alter the perception of everyone with an opinion. Those of you who were confident are a little shaken, and those who were skeptical have leaped off the bandwagon they were dangling from the edge of in the first place.

Still, this team manhandled the Steelers in week sixteen and one of their three losses on the season was to the Colts the following week, where they basically threw in the towel because they had already locked up the conference’s one seed for the playoffs. One would think that would be enough to keep the bandwagon strong, but longterm memories (and by longterm, I mean beyond the previous week) are non-existent in sports, especially the NFL. “What have you done for me lately” also translates loosely into, “was it done before or after your next opponent’s recent accomplishment? Because that determines who I’m picking”.

Baltimore beat a sorry Jags team in a must win week 17 situation and absolutely destroyed the Dolphins in their wild card game, so, that’s the common consensus. Baltimore will beat the Titans. But I think this is shortsighted. How much is the dismissal of Tennessee is substantive based and how much is reactionary and superficial? Tennessee, while having the second best defense all season, rarely forced turnovers. They’re almost completely devoid of a highlight reel for a season that has to be considered a resounding success. No Ed Reed’s or Ray Lewis’. The closest thing the Titans have to anyone like that is Haynesworth, and he’s a defensive tackle. There isn’t a lot of flash to be had at defensive tackle.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: What’s Vince Young’s mindset? How’s Vince Young reacting to his team accomplishing so much while he’s on the sideline? Can Vince Young rebound from the setback earlier in the season? Will Vince Young play? Is this team better with Collins next year? What if Collins struggles early, do they play Vince Young? You might have noticed that these are all mild variations on about two different subjects, and I wouldn’t expect anything different.

Fantasy Implications: Defenses should carry the day here. Your better off going with players at skill positions who aren’t facing such distinctly tough adversaries in the NFL.com Playoff Fantasy Challenge Extravaganza. LenDale White’s had three weeks off now, Lord knows what he’s going to look like coming out of the tunnel.

The Pick: Look, I’m just as frightful about the potential for another Baltimore Ravens Superbowl as anyone. The team is streaking, they seem to have a competent coach (this is the NFL right? How often do we see one competent coach replaced with another? This has to be considered a milestone), and every thing seems to simply be working in their favor. But I can’t ignore how dominant the Titans looked all season. These teams played week five in Baltimore, where the Titans won 13-10. A lot has changed since then, namely Collins and Flacco have had time to adapt to their current surroundings. Given that the game was played in Baltimore and Tennessee still won with a 40 year-old quarterback, I think I’m going with the minority and taking the Titans to win and cover.

As evidenced by when I am writing this, though, I am in no way confident about it. And yes, I am aware I am taking the favorites to win every game and to cover all but one of them, and that in a year with this much parity, that is extremely improbable. Fuck it, after last week I’m on tilt and almost have to do this.

Enjoy the games everyone.