Fantasy Football

103 receptions, 1147 yards receiving, and 5 touchdown catches is a great season for any NFL wide receiver. For Andre Johnson, those 2006 statistics only touched the surface of what is to come from the 6′3 Texans WR in 2007. There is one reason, and one reason only, that superstar fantasy statistics are in Johnson’s future this season. That reason is because David Carr is no longer throwing him the ball, and it is really that simple.

Being the fantasy fanatic that I am, I have probably only missed a handful of NFL games in the last 10 years. In the 4 year span that has been Andre Johnson’s career in Houston, I have failed to find more of a misuse of superstar talent than I have when watching the Texans on the tube every Sunday. It really isn’t the Houston Texans fault as an organization, as I am quite sure they know what they have in Johnson. However, you can only do so much with your superstar wideout when you have a QB as inept as Carr under center.

Johnson often had to become a defender when David Carr attempted to get him the ball downfield. That should all change with Matt Schaub throwing him the ball in ‘07.

Yes, I have heard the excuse that everyone wants to give Carr a million times, and I am just not buying that his offensive line was entirely to blame. He was on his back for most of his career in Houston, not so much because of his poor offensive line, but more because he can’t make quick decisions and can’t read defenses. I’m not saying that Houston has a good offensive line by any means, but you can’t lay 5 years of poor QB play on the o-line.

From a fantasy perspective for Johnson, the problem was more that Carr couldn’t get the ball downfield to an explosive WR that should thrive on the deep pass. While Carr’s QB rating (82.1) improved some last season, it was mainly because his completion percentage was 68.3, which was aided mostly by short dump passes. He only threw 11 TDs compared to 12 interceptions, while the Texans’ coaching staff rarely allowed him to chuck the ball downfield to Johnson, and rightfully so. Here are some mind blowing statistics that show you exactly what I’m talking about. Of the 28 QBs with more than 300 passing attempts in ‘06, only Bruce Gradkowski (5.1), Joey Harrington (5.8), Eli Manning (6.2) Charlie Frye (6.2), and Vince Young (6.2) had a worse yard per completion statistic than Carr (6.3). Of the 20 WRs who had 70 or more receptions in ‘06, Johnson’s 11.1 yards per catch was tied for the lowest along with the Lions’ Mike Furrey. Hey, no disrespect to Furrey, but I don’t think that he displays quite the downfield speed that Johnson does.

Why is this all going to change for Johnson in ‘07? David Carr out, and Matt Schaub in, and again, it is that simple. Yes, Schaub is unproven, but in the short playing time he had in Atlanta, he showed on numerous occasions that he wasn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield. In both his 27 attempts in ‘06 and 64 attempts in ‘05, Schaub averaged 7.7 yards per completion. New head coach Gary Kubiak is not going to be afraid to let Schaub gun the ball downfield to Johnson, which is going to result in more receiving yards and more TDs. The Texans should also be involved in more shootouts than ever, as the defense who finished in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed last season should not improve by much.

In a fantasy year where there is much debate over who the top wideouts in the league are going to be, Johnson has a real chance to make his presence felt. I believe that he will end the ‘07 season as a top 5 fantasy wideout, and it wouldn’t come as a complete shock to see him lead the NFL in both receptions (led league in ‘06) and receiving yards. I certainly believe that he will have a career high in TDs, likely in the 10-12 range. His current average draft position for WRs in ESPN leagues is 16th. You should be able to grab him sometime in the 4th round or early in the 5th, which would be an absolute steal. Whatever you do, don’t miss out on what is going to be a career year for Andre Johnson.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.