Fantasy Football

Draft strategy, draft strategy, draft strategy, that is all fantasy football owners want to talk about this time of year. Hey, it makes sense; people want to know what the best draft strategy is when it comes to selecting a competitive fantasy football team. Does the perfect draft strategy exist? My answer is that it does exist, and the key is to simply take the best available player at all times, regardless of position.

I know, you have been told several times that you would be foolish not to select a RB with your first two picks. I’m here to tell you that you are foolish if you abide by that strategy as law. It is true, RBs do win fantasy leagues. However, the huge misconception is that the RBs who win owners fantasy leagues all are going to be drafted in the first two rounds.

Frank Gore is living proof that championship RBs can be found in the later rounds of your draft.

Let’s look at the top 12 total points RBs from a 2006 standard RB scoring league (1pt=10yds rush, 1pt=10yds rec, 6pts=TD) with respect to when they might have been drafted in a 12-team competitive league last season.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson- Top 5
2. Larry Johnson- Top 5
3. Steven Jackson- 1st round
4. Frank Gore- Middle or late round
5. Willie Parker- 2nd round
6. Brian Westbrook- 1st or 2nd round
7. Maurice Jones-Drew- Late round or undrafted
8. Rudi Johnson- 1st round
9. Ladell Betts- Late round or undrafted
10. Joseph Addai- 3rd to 6th round
11. Chester Taylor- 3rd to 6th round
12. Deuce McAllister- 2nd to 5th round

Of the 12, only Tomlinson, Johnson, Johnson, and Jackson were almost certainly 1st round picks. Of the remaining 8, only Parker and Westbrook were likely a 2nd round choice, which means that half of the top 12 RB total point producers from ‘06 most likely weren’t selected in the first two rounds of your draft last season. The point is that you can find RB talent past the first two rounds if you play your cards correctly, leaving you the opportunity to draft upper echelon players at other positions in earlier rounds.

Here is how I would apply my “best player available” strategy for the first few rounds of your draft. Now, if you are slotted somewhere from 1 to 7 in your draft, the best available player is most likely going to be a RB. There aren’t any players I would take over Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, Addai, Johnson, Westbrook, or Parker. However, if you are slotted from 7 to 12 in a 12-team league, I believe that the “best available player” will start to vary in position.

At pick 8 to 12, and especially from 12 back to 8, owners applying the two RB rule are going to start overreaching out of desperation to fill the RB position. If you are smart, you will cash on their mistakes. They will bypass sure fire players like Peyton Manning (my #1 ranked QB), Carson Palmer (my #2 ranked QB), and Chad Johnson (my #1 ranked WR) for overrated RBs like Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry. My advice is to take players that you know are going to perform week in and week out for your team. Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Travis Henry could all have great ‘07 seasons, but Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Chad Johnson will have great ‘07 seasons. If you went with McGahee, Brown, or Henry over Manning, Palmer, or Johnson, you wouldn’t be taking the best available player, and your team will ultimately suffer because of it.

To the owners who are convinced that RBs like McGahee and Brown aren’t overreaches in the late 1st or early 2nd round, I’ll explain to you why they are. McGahee is averaging the 13th overall pick in ESPN leagues as of today, while Brandon Jacobs is averaging the 35th overall pick. I hate to break it to you McGahee fans, but these guys are virtually the same fantasy player. They both will get goal line carries in a relatively weak offense, they both will likely be replaced on 3rd downs, and they both are going to average around the same amount of carries per game. The hype on McGahee is just that, hype. There is no reason, based on both statistics and brain power, that McGahee should be going 22 slots ahead of Jacobs. Let’s compare Ronnie Brown and Jerious Norwood. How much difference is there in the two RBs going into the season? They are both young with raw talent, they both play in terrible offenses, and they will both get the ball. Why is Brown being picked 15th, while Norwood is being taken 50th? I’ll tell you why, it is the two RB rule getting the best of nervous owners early in the draft.

I’ll finish this off by saying that I have drafted every possible way, with every possible strategy. Having said that, my most competitive teams always come by simply drafting the best player available, regardless of position. Trust me; it is the way to go.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.