Fantasy Football

Now it has come time for the ultimate pre-draft list, the sleeper and bust list. Fantasy owners love the sleeper and bust list, likely because they feel these names are the ones who will give them an edge over the competition at the draft. I take this list very seriously, because this is a great time for me to separate myself from everyone else giving advice in the fantasy world. After all, a fantasy advisor is only as good as his predictions, and the sleeper and bust list is one that readers will remember vividly. My busts will be high profile, and my sleepers will be players who may not even get drafted. Here we go…

Busts

QB Vince Young (TEN)- I see a lot of Michael Vick in Vince Young (not a dog killer), a great running QB who everyone believed his passing stats would eventually catch up with his rushing stats. As we know with Vick, it just never happened. It is possible that Young will become a better passer than Vick, and turn into a fantasy superstar, but I just don’t see how it will happen this year. The Titans are very thin at WR, and it is going to be a case where Young will have to make his WRs better, not the other way around. I don’t believe that Young is accurate enough to make that happen, and his passing stats will suffer greatly because of it. He will still run his way to some great weeks, but he’s not going to be consistent enough through the air to make up for the games in which his running game is slowed. I would let someone else take him.

Vince Young’s inability to make big plays through the air will leave him as an inconsistent QB1.

RB Willis McGahee (BAL)- I don’t agree with the notion that McGahee will emerge as this great RB now that he is out of Buffalo. Sure, he probably has a better offensive line in Baltimore than he did with the Bills, but the Ravens’ passing game isn’t going to get defenders out of the box. He is going to face the same stacked line week in and week out that he did with the Bills, and he has proven time and time again that he can’t get to the secondary. Yes, he will get fed the ball, but he is not most durable RB in the league, so can we really expect him to workhorse his way to the end of the season? I don’t see enough TD potential, and certainly not enough big play potential for him to be taken as a RB1.

RB Cedric Benson (CHI)- I believe Benson is staring bust season right in the face. To me, he looks sluggish and slow running the ball. Even worse than that, he couldn’t even stay healthy when he split time with Thomas Jones, so what makes me believe he’ll be able to carry the load this season? Like McGahee, he is going to be looking at 8 and 9 men in the box every week, and I’m not convinced he’s good enough to take it on. It is also not a stretch to assume he’ll have limited scoring opportunities with Rex Grossman leading the offense.

RB Travis Henry (DEN)- I have been burned by the Mike Shanahan running back carousel too many times. It all looks great from a distance, take a talented RB who produced in Tennessee last season and stick him in the Broncos’ offense, and you have a fantasy stud. Well, I’m not convinced. A fumble here, a missed block there, and all of the sudden your RB1 is in the Shanahan doghouse. You could turn on a Denver game in Week 4 and some guy you’ve never heard of is handling the rock 15 to 20 times. I’m also concerned that Mike Bell will get short yardage looks, and if it doesn’t start that way, it certainly could end that way. Remember, Shanahan shows no loyalty towards his RBs, and it can get very tiring by midseason.

WR Donald Driver (GB)- I was going to put him on this list even prior to his foot injury. He’s coming off a career year in which he was really beat up quite a bit. He played through injury a lot in 2006, and I would be surprised if he was able to sustain his health through the entire 2007 season. Brett Favre will try to get Greg Jennings and rookie James Jones involved in the offense early in the season and Driver’s numbers should fall.

Honorable Mention: RB Rudi Johnson (CIN), RB Shaun Alexander (SEA), WR Terrell Owens (DAL)

Sleepers

RB Vernand Morency (GB)- Owners are almost ignoring him in recent drafts, and I don’t understand why. Sure, he’s not 100% at the moment, and certainly not the pinnacle of heath, but he’s a talented runner. The Packers like him, one because they traded for him last season, and two because they didn’t have a problem letting Ahman Green go on his way in the offseason. As long as he can get healthy, he will be the main man in Green Bay before midseason, leaving Brandon Jackson in his wake, trust me. Don’t ignore him near the end of your draft.

RB Mike Bell (DEN)- Bell was solid when called upon last season, and as I alluded to with Travis Henry, you just never know with Mike Shanahan. His goal line abilities would make him an all-around touch RB if Henry got hurt or fell out of favor with Shanahan. He is a good guy to have stored away on your bench if you have the room.

RB Chris Brown (TEN)- I don’t think anyone knows exactly how the RB situation is going to shake down in Titan land when the season begins. LenDale White should get the majority of touches when healthy, but Chris Brown is not going to be ignored by head coach Jeff Fisher this season. The Titans obviously think Brown can produce, or he wouldn’t still be hanging around in Tennessee. I can definitely see a situation in which Brown is receiving the bulk of the work by midseason, so keep him on your watch list.

RB Adrian Peterson (CHI)- You know how I feel about Benson, so the other Adrian Peterson should have a chance to show what he can do at some point this year. No one knows how good he really is, but the Bears obviously showed some confidence in him by trading Thomas Jones. He needs to be handcuffed to Benson without question, and other owners need to be ready to snatch him from the free agent list if Benson is aching.

RB Correll Buckhalter (PHI)- Some have talked about rookie RB Tony Hunt as a handcuff to Brian Westbrook, but Buckhalter is the guy to have. Westbrook has very little chance of playing all 16 games, and Buckhalter has the ability to fill in nicely when he is out. He has bounced back from consecutive knee injuries and looked better than ever in his short time on the field last season. He should be FA eye candy until Westbrook is hurting, but don’t be afraid to grab him at any point if you have the room to do so.

QB Matt Schaub (HOU)- Some of the QB2’s and QB3’s that are being taken over Schaub baffle me. Why would you want an aging veteran like Steve McNair on your bench rather than a young QB like Schaub with a ton of upside? Schaub will play garbage man in a lot of games the Texans are behind, and he should end up with one of the higher pass attempt numbers in the league. I see a lot of reason to want Schaub as a bench QB late in your draft.

WR Patrick Crayton (DAL)- With Terry Glenn (knee) looking unsure of himself for the beginning of the season, Crayton will likely be the #2 man in the Cowboys’ passing game. He developed good chemistry with Tony Romo at the end of last season, so there is reason to believe that he will get a decent amount of looks in ‘07. I would grab him in the later rounds of your draft, as he has the potential to become a nice WR3 if Glenn continues to have issues with his knee.

Feel free to email me at Joseph.Badalucco@451press.net with any questions you might have regarding your own team or draft.