Fantasy Football

Okay, the first three weeks of the NFL season are history, so now it is time for the serious trade talks to begin in fantasy leagues. Who is available, who should be available, who shouldn’t be available, who should you sell at high value, who should you buy at low value? Let’s try and answer those questions right now.

Sell High

Donovan McNabb (PHI)- There isn’t any better time to get rid of McNabb than right now. Sure, he threw for 381 yards and tossed four touchdowns on Sunday, but he did it against the Detroit Lions defense. Listen, Kevin Curtis is a good receiver and all, but he should not be scorching any defense to the tune of 221 yards and three touchdowns. I’m still not convinced that McNabb’s knee is healthy enough to get him through a 16 game season, and he certainly won’t get to face the Lions on a weekly basis. While he does get the pathetic Giants defense in week 4, the Eagles follow with a week 5 BYE, then get the Jets, Bears, Vikings, Cowboys, Redskins, Dolphins, and the Patriots, which is a very difficult seven game stretch. The only good news regarding McNabb is that his schedule for the fantasy playoffs is cake (SEA, NYG, DAL, NOR, BUF), but that is granted he carries you to the playoffs in the first place. If you own McNabb and you have other quarterback options on your bench, I suggest pulling the trigger for a solid running back or wide receiver if you can get one.

Vince Young (TEN)- Yes, the guy does win football games, but so did Michael Vick, yet his fantasy status never lived up to what owners thought it would be. I realize that Vince Young is very intriguing to owners because of his running ability, but the guy simply doesn’t put up good enough passing statistics on a weekly basis to warrant QB1 status. He has still failed to throw for 200 yards in a game to this point, and he may only reach that mark on a few occasions the rest of the season. However, he did toss two touchdowns on Monday Night Football, which could be enough to get a quarterback hungry owner in your league to bite on his bait. Throw him to the wolves and see what you can get this week.

Torry Holt (STL)- Folks, Torry Holt has lost his mojo, along with the rest of the St. Louis Rams offense. Let’s analyze what has gone right for the Rams so far this season… that would be nothing at all. Steven Jackson has a partially torn groin and will be out for at least a few weeks (I know you’re hoping it will just be one game, but it won’t), Marc Bulger revealed that he is playing with some broken ribs, and Holt’s long catch so far this season is 20 yards. Listen, his knee is not healthy, his yards-per-catch average continues to drop, and the offense around him is beginning to crumble. Don’t hang onto him in hope of his “Best Show on Turf” glory years, as it is time to trade him for good value while you still can.

Adrian Peterson (MIN)- This is one of those guys that I shouldn’t even bother putting on this list, because his owners aren’t parting with him for the world. However, I’m going to make my case anyway. For one, head coach Brad Childress has insisted that Chester Taylor is the starting running back when healthy, which could be as soon as this week. I’m in agreement ( I know what you’re thinking) that Peterson is still going to get the majority of the Vikings’ backfield touches, but don’t think for one second that Taylor’s return won’t effect Peterson’s value. At worst, Taylor will play on 3rd downs and steal some Peterson receptions, which has been a big part of AP’s game to this point (160 yards receiving). The Vikings are also going to be cautious with Peterson’s workload, considering his injury history and the fact that he is their prized rookie. These factors, along with the fact that the Vikings just aren’t a good offensive football team, make me believe that Peterson could be at a season high value at this moment. If you can get a ton of value for the flashy rookie, you couldn’t pick a better time to do so.

As tough as it would be for owners to trade Steven Jackson, now may be the best time to do it.

Steven Jackson (STL)- Jackson is on this list for all the same reasons that Torry Holt is on this list, plus two. One, he has a partially torn groin, which I believe will keep him out three weeks, if not more. You don’t rule a player out on a Tuesday unless he is feeling pretty bad, which is exactly what the Rams did. Two, we all know that tackle Orlando Pace is gone for the season, but what we didn’t know is that it was going to affect the Rams offense the way it has. Marc Bulger has no time to throw and is getting pummeled, while Jackson literally hasn’t had anywhere to run. The Rams offense is falling apart quickly, and I don’t know that I see it being in any better shape when Jackson returns from his injury. As a matter of fact, it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see Jackson return to a team that is without Bulger, who is now nursing a few cracked ribs. As tough as it would be to do, I think it would be best to get all the value you can from Jackson right now. He’ll sell for slightly under his value because of the injury, but you should still be able to get enough to make it worth your while.

LaMont Jordan (OAK)- This is the no-brainer of the list, obviously. Jordan has been a workhorse in the first three weeks of the season, compiling 69 carries and 11 receptions for 471 total yards and two touchdowns. Miami should put a stop to his solid run in week 4, which will be followed by an Oakland BYE and the week 5 return of Dominic Rhodes. The Raiders paid Rhodes a good deal of money in the offseason, so he is going to be a part of their gameplan in some way, shape, or form. Also, the Raiders have serious issues at the quarterback position, which will eventually lead to rookie JaMarcus Russell taking over at some point in the season. Oakland will struggle to move the ball on a consistent basis through the air, and sooner than later (this week) defenses are simply going to stack the line to stop the run. It is time to say goodbye to LaMont, and you should be able to get some pretty good value for him.

Buy Low

Larry Johnson (KC)- If you are trying to trade Larry Johnson, your excuse for doing so shouldn’t be that you didn’t think the Chiefs offense would be this bad. My question to you is… why would you have thought any different? Going into the season, the Chiefs had no real quarterback and no real outside receiving threat, which isn’t going to make for a good offense. It was obvious from the beginning that Johnson wasn’t going to match his 19 touchdown effort from last season, or he would have clearly been the second or third selection in every single fantasy draft. As it stands, Johnson likely went somewhere in the 4-9 range at your draft, and believe it or not, he is going to end up with that type of value at the end of the season. Johnson’s touches have increased every week (17-19-25) as the difficulty of his opponent has gotten better each week (HOU-CHI-MIN). It’s not as if he was absolutely horrendous in the first two weeks of the season either, as he totaled 87 yards in both games. Sure, he only had 37 total yards against the Vikings, but they may have the best run defense in the NFL outside of the Ravens. While Johnson has yet to score, the bottom line is that he is an extremely talented runner who is going to get the ball as much as any running back in the league from here on out. Hang on to him, as it is going to pay off for you in the coming weeks. If you are not an LJ owner, try and snatch him from someone who is ready to deal him.

LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)- If someone is willing to deal Tomlinson after three subpar weeks, by all means, take them up on their offer. He is probably going to have a huge game against the Chiefs on Sunday, so this should be your last chance to get LT if he’s available. If you are a Tomlinson owner, please don’t trade him.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)- Anquan Boldin was huge in week 3 as he scored both Arizona touchdowns, leaving Fitzgerald owners with much to be desired. He has yet to score this season, but Fitzgerald is too strong of a redzone threat to let that last much longer. Much like Tomlinson, this will probably be the last week you’ll be able to snatch Fitzgerald away from a disappointed owner.

Lee Evans (BUF)- Evans has 29 yard receiving in three weeks. Yes, you read that right, in three weeks! I hear people talking about how Evans’ value isn’t going to get any better now that rookie Trent Edwards will be taking over for the injured J.P. Losman (knee). What I’m trying to figure out is why people think that would be the case. I would like to know if the same people who are saying that have actually watched an entire Buffalo Bills game with J.P. Losman at quarterback, because I don’t believe they have. The truth is that it can’t get much worse than Losman at quarterback, and I don’t care if it is a rookie with no experience. Saying that a wide receiver is going to lose value with J.P. Losman out is like saying that a wide receiver is going to lose value with Rex Grossman being demoted. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Edwards (without ever seeing him play) never gives the job back to Losman, because even if he’s just average over the next few games, that will be better than J.P. has ever been. Evans is going to get better, he has to. He’s just too explosive of a receiver to be bottled down for much longer, so go out and get him if you can. His owner is likely to trade him for practically nothing at this point. If you are an owner, don’t give him away.

Laurence Maroney (NE)- The more I watch the replay of the Patriots/Bills game from Sunday, the more it makes me want to trade for Maroney. The idea that Sammy Morris is the goal line back in New England is somewhat bogus. As I watched the replay of the game, it became noticeable that Maroney doesn’t come out in every short yardage situation. Morris is actually playing almost every third series, and if it is his series to run the ball, he will be the one to score on the goal line. However, if it is Maroney’s series to carry the load (which is the majority), the Patriots aren’t just yanking him out once they get down in the red zone. It has actually been sort of a coincidence more than anything that Morris has scored twice, while Maroney has yet to cross the goal line. Does it bother me that Morris takes carries away from Maroney? Absolutely, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that there are going to be plenty of carries to go around on a team that is going to be winning almost every game. Maroney is going to get his touchdowns, and it is going to be sooner rather than later. I also think there is a strong possibility that he is going to contend for the AFC rushing title with the Patriots holding numerous fourth quarter leads. Hold onto Maroney if you own him, and go get him as a RB2 if an owner is ready to deal him.

Drew Brees (NO)- Wow, he’s been so terrible. I realize that he has one touchdown to his seven interceptions, but that means he is at rock bottom value. Deuce McAllister’s season-ending ACL injury actually helps Brees’ fantasy value, contrary to what some might think. Reggie Bush is not the type of running back that the Saints are going to feel comfortable giving 25+ carries a game, so they should turn to the passing game as much as possible. It is obvious that the Saints’ defense is terrible, so Brees and the offense should continue to play from behind and in shootouts. Barring injury, Brees will throw for another 4,000+ yards, even if his touchdown numbers fall a bit. That should be enough for him to remain a solid QB1 in all fantasy leagues.

Santonio Holmes (PIT)- Holmes has only eight receptions in the first three weeks of the season, but that has a lot to do with the Steelers playing three teams (CLE/BUF/SF) who couldn’t score on offense. Pittsburgh has had a 2nd half lead in all three of their games, which has led to more running than passing late in the game. However, Holmes has made a splash with his eight grabs, racking up a lofty 19.6 yards-per-catch average, and he looks very much in sync with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. As soon as the Steelers start playing some closer games, Holmes is going to be a very productive WR3 with the good possibility of being a solid WR2. Go out and get him while his value is still low, and if you’re an owner, keep plugging him into your lineup on a weekly basis.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)- I keep saying it, and I will continue to say it until I can’t say it anymore, and that is Jones-Drew is still going to be one of the most valuable fantasy running backs in the league at season’s end. He is just too explosive to be held down for much longer, and Fred Taylor will not hold up to a heavy workload if the Jaguars decide to go that route. One way or another, Jones-Drew is going to have some monster games in the near future. Don’t bail on him yet if you’re an owner, and by all means trade for him if you can get him for cheap.

Bernard Berrian (CHI)- Rex Grossman is out and Brian Griese is in… do I really need to say anything more than that? Berrian should become much more consistent on a weekly basis with Griese at quarterback, and his touchdowns should certainly be on the rise. Now is the perfect time to make a play for B-squared.

Feel free to email me at Jdimaggio5@aol.com with any questions you might have regarding your fantasy team.