Fantasy Football

Well, we’re 3-7 so far in the playoffs, though that feels about average for this post-season. And we finished 52-39-5 on the regular season. If you need that spelled out for you, it makes us 55-46-5 on our picks outright. Its not too shabby. Sans week fifteen and the playoffs, we are picking at about 60%, and we can’t fucking stand putting money down on the NFL. So yeah, it proves us wrong in a way, but we’re not going to let this temptress take our roll.

But semi-related to picking games, last year we made something of a small fortune on prop bets (we hit on “neither team would score three times in a row”, “Plaxico Burress would score final touchdown”, “David Tyree would score a touchdown” and “Laurence Maroney would score a touchdown”), but we no longer know anyone in Vegas and are hesitant to pick up the habit of online gambling. Never the less, for those of you who aren’t completely gutless or are fortunate enough to be in a county with legalized gambling, here are some prop bets we like:

Arizona +4 at half
I’m unsure as to which team I am picking to win this game (we’ll figure it out by the end of this post), but I like Arizona going into halftime with a six point lead or so. Why? Because they’ve basically done just that every game until now. Pitt’s defense is tenacious, but I could see them undermining this Arizona team like everyone else has. If the last three games they’ve played have counted for anything (and since we’ve had two weeks off, they don’t), Arizona should be able to at least keep it close until halftime.

Race to ten points: Arizona +150
For pretty much the same reason we like the Cardinals to cover that halftime spread. Also, Pittsburgh doesn’t usually come out the gates and beat their opponent over the head with an overwhelming amount of offensive output. Their style, on both offense and defense is more…relentless. And doesn’t expose itself too early in any contest.

First score: Arizona Touchdown: +290, Arizona Field Goal: +375
If you don’t know what these numbers mean, you put $50 on either bet, they pay out $195 & $237.50 respectively.

Pittsburgh to win by 11-15 +500
Arizona to win by 6-10 +900
It’s a good way to hedge your bets and also makes a potentially boring game significantly more interesting for your neutral observers.

First to Score Wins: No at +150
This is for your most degenerate of gamblers. We’ll call it the mortgage maker. But, at the same time it’s basically a 50/50 shot that this plays out in your favor and it pays out significantly better than that. If you’re not a degenerate (ooooh, Mr. Fancy Pants. You’re too good to place your kids college tuition on a prop Super Bowl bet? What? You think you’re better than me?), then this is a good bet to lay down for your girlfriend/new bride to keep her interested if she’s not already into football. She’ll have something to root for and might actually avoid sulking why you’re trying to enjoy yourself. Again, if she’s not already into football in the first place.

Sir Charles approved.

First Touchdown Scorer
Willie Parker +500 Because it’s possible he breaks an early run for a long touchdown
Edgerrin James +800 Because he’s had a resurgence and everyone is rooting for him now
Tim Hightower +900 Because he handles the goal line carries and if he gets in the end zone and not James, you’re going to be displeased if you had money on one and not the other.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s under the radar all of a sudden.
Heath Miller +1200 Because he’s their first option in short yardage.

Last Touchdown Scorer
Larry Fitzgerald +550 Because I can see him unceremoniously getting in the end zone after a disappointing game.
Hines Ward +800 Because he’s their best weapon on offense.
Edgerrin James +800 Because whether it’s close or they’re winning or losing convincingly, he’s going to be concerned about his stats.
Santonio Holmes +900 Because he plays special teams.
Tim Hightower +900 Because he gets every goal line carry.
Anquan Boldin +900 Because he’s inexplicably under the radar.
Nate Washington +1500 Because he’s unsuspecting.
Steve Breaston +1500 Because he’s there, capable and really, really underrated.
Troy Palumalu +3300 Because he thrives at taking advantage of his opponents frantic self-defeat and putting the final nail in their coffin. And besides, if you put $50 on it, it pays out $1,700.

Alright, that’s it for the prop bets that looked appealing. There were some others on the board that are foreseeable but the odds aren’t really favorable. I wouldn’t want to put money on any prop bet unless it pays out better than a standard line bet, and occasionally they’re pay out is worse. There really doesn’t seem to be any point in engaging in this sort of behavior.

We’ll be back later today/tonight for our actual game pick and a general overview. We might also hold out for a live blog of the game, depending on how we end up spending our time while it’s on.