Fantasy Football

Going into pretty much any NFL or fantasy football season, by far and away the most predictable outcome of any field of players at a specific position is quarterback. I don’t think there’s much argument that should they all stay healthy, Manning, Brady, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Brees, Rivers and Warner should all have good to great fantasy seasons. That’s eight guys, snag one of them and all you need is a serviceable backup.

But going into the 2009 season there are a couple of anomalies. Specifically, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Both coming off fantastic rookie campaigns, not necessarily from a fantasy perspective, but from an efficiency one.  Still, everyone has  high expectations for fantasy and to lead their teams back into the playoffs. Both of which we’re skeptical of actually happening.

This reminds us of the case with Vince Young going into his sophomore season: He led his team into the playoffs, taking a wild card at 8-8 in a competitive AFC. He went into second year regularly ranked as a top ten quarterback on fantasy boards and (at least in a couple of anecdotal examples) going as high as the second round (though all these people who drafted him that high were from Texas). A concept which is obviously absurd in hindsight, but the hype became bigger than the actual player, and that’s regularly a good sign for a quarterback that inexperienced.

For starters, and people have a tendency to do this, you don’t want to overlook the players actual contribution to the team’s success. Yes, Flacco and Ryan both had respectable rookie seasons, but both had dominant running games spearheading the offense (especially Ryan) and overwhelming defenses that forced a lot of turnovers (especially Flacco). The common thread is to judge a quarterback by the wins and losses column (See: Cutler, Jay), and this typifies the overly-simplistic nature of NFL commentary that we can’t stand.

Sure, Cutler was second in the league in passing yardage and sixth in touchdowns with a non-existent running game, a mediocre receiving corps. and the worst defense in the league…but he missed the playoffs! Obviously this logic is flawed for fantasy football, but it’s actually used as justification for why Chicago is ill-fated in finally acquiring a quarterback with pro-bowl talent.

This is the antithesis to how people perceive Ryan and Flacco: They both made the playoffs so clearly they’re the next Marino and Montana. It’s arguments such as these two that make NFL analysis insufferable to watch. That, and the self-righteous nonsense from jocktards that used to inhabit these rosters. I know everyone will tell me they know more about the game than I ever will, and they should, but when I listen to them talk it really doesn’t feel that way.

Anyhow, I have much higher hopes for Ryan than I do for Flacco, and I’d still draft all the aforementioned quarterbacks before these two (and there are about six others in the conversation). These teams aren’t going to rely on the passing game for points, they’re going to rely on moving the ball on the ground and go to air it out sporadically, just to keep teams honest. So try reign it in a bit come draft time, you’d be better off relying on their backups off of waiver wire than taking either of these guys in the first three rounds.