Fantasy Football

Last week really brought us back down to earth on these line assessments. We mentioned it on Monday and we’re still stinging. If I repeat that performance I might as well discontinue my stint on this site. Regardless of the circumstances that was inexcusable. I guess since I must, here’s my record from last week: 5-9-2, bringing our season total to: 32-28-4 after four weeks of doing this. We need to get to at least…8 games over .500 by the end of the season to maintain our non-existent reputation. It’s really important to us.

Anyhow, onto our picks. I get the feeling we’ll rue the day we ever decided to do this, much less suggest that picking games later in the season is easier than at the beginning of it. What we meant was, wait a few weeks before you start hastily throwing money around. The last two weeks are particularly difficult because no one has any idea which teams are going to bench which players for preservation. Perhaps we should have been clearer.

Indianapolis -6 JACKSONVILLE
Line Pick: Well, shit. If Jacksonville had lost last week it would make it a lot easier to pick against them. And we know they’re bad. The only thing we’re left wondering as a result of that is how bad are the Packers? We’re going with pretty fucking terrible because we’re still taking Indy to cover this game, despite needing the length of the game to beat the Lions last week. If it was eight, I would have gone with Jax, but it’s not plausible when Indy covers with a single touchdown.

Fantasy Advice: Maurice Jones-Drew is a must go with no Fred Taylor. Or at least, Del Rio pretending he isn’t on his roster. I have no idea what his status is. When it comes to the Colts, your guess is as good as mine with which receiver to start. Hopefully Addai doesn’t play so Indy has a running back worth a damn.

DALLAS -4 Baltimore
Line Pick: Nice, our first Saturday game of the NFL season (or at least as far as I can remember). I hope you have the NFL Network, because this is actually worth staying in for. The Ravens seem like one of the few teams left who benefit greatly from playing at home. It’s inevitable that we end up getting burned by this game, but we’re taking the Cowboys to cover. I still do not have much faith in Joe Flacco in a playoff like atmosphere. Sorry, Balmer. But it was one of the few theories that worked for me last week.

Fantasy Advice: I like Mc’Clain coming out of the backfield for the Ravens, the Cowboys have so many options and such an inconsistent quarterback that I really don’t know what to tell you other than I’m content to have never had Roy Williams, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber or Felix Jones on my roster. Tashard Choice is probably the safest bet here, and the Ravens have a top five run defense. Really, I don’t know what to tell you.

CLEVELAND -3 Cincinnati
Line Pick: Well, the Browns have the better personnel (and I’m not referring to quarterbacks, I refuse to compare the merits of these two), but the Bengals are playing better and with a little more fervor than they have all season. Fitzpatrick has more snaps under his belt…I’m going to take the points. How can you take a team that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in four games?

Fantasy Advice: Housh for the Bengals, maybe Edwards and Lewis for the Browns. Deepers leagues you can justify Cribbs or Harrison, start anyone else on either of these teams then it’s amazing you are still in contention.

New Orleans -7 DETROIT
Line Pick: The Lions have actually covered the past two weeks, but we’re still taking the Saints. If Detroit is going to fend off the dreaded 0-16 season, their going to have to do it next week in Green Bay. And given how the last four or five weeks have gone for the Packers, that seems about right.

Who can blame the Saints for missing home? I imagine the Lions would rather play there as well.

Fantasy Advice: This Saints defense is in the bottom third of the league (though I have no idea how, they’ve invested enough money and draft picks into it), so I like Kevin Smith to get in the end zone a couple times. As for the Saints, well, they’re on the road. So you have to set your own expectations. Personally, since it’s the Lions, I still like virtually everyone to rack up some quality pointage. Especially Colston and Thomas.

Pittsburgh -2 TENNESSEE
Line Pick: It appears relying on the Titans is ill-advised, if last week is any indication. But Pitt is another team that revels in home field advantage, and Tennessee is going to be bound and determined to hold onto home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so we’ll take the points and just assume the Titans win this one.

Fantasy Advice: I like both defenses and maybe Cage or Washington in some of your deeper leagues. Obviously Heinz Ward is a must go, he excels in these hard hitting games. No question he’ll be fined.

Miami -4 KANSAS CITY
Line Pick: I think the loss to San Diego took the win out of the Chiefs sails. It wasn’t really sustainable, anyways. The wind they had before that game was equivalent to one of those mini-fans people walk around with at amusement parks. I like the Dolphins, but expecting them to cover more than a field goal is always a tentative proposition. Best to stay away from this one, methinks.

Fantasy Advice: Hmmm, well, you’re insane if you start any receiver in this game other than Dwayne Bowe. Neither quarterback is really a fantasy playoff quarterback (and if you are starting one of these players this deep into the season and are still around, congratulations, you’re one of the luckier people on the planet), I haven’t been following the status of Chiefs running backs and Ronnie Brown is always a serviceable starter. So, Ronnie Brown. That’s about it.

San Fransisco -5.5 ST LOUIS
Line Pick: Alright, are the Niners steady enough to pick to cover as a favorite? I’m skeptical. But after that letdown against the Seahawks I can’t take the Rams to keep this game within a touchdown. Besides, the Niners are on their meaningless annual second half tear to get all their fans excited for next season, only to disappoint them considerably the following season.

Fantasy Advice: Shaun Hill should actually put up some points. But like most scenarios with middle-tier quarterbacks at this point in the season, if you’re torn between Shaun Hill and someone else on your roster then your week is probably obsolete. Frank Gore should run wild and even though he let us down last week, we like Vernon Davis to come through for his fantasy owners, however few are left. The Rams aren’t sporting much these days, but if you’re conflicted and in a deep league, Donnie Avery might surprise some people.

NEW ENGLAND -7.5 Arizona
Line Pick: So it appears Vegas doesn’t have any faith in Arizona in cold weather, and therefore the playoffs. I have a feeling they’re right, but 7.5 seems like an awful lot for a team that was squeaking by the Seahawks just two weeks ago. Well, considering Arizona has been getting blown out and that game in Philly being so fresh in my mind, we’re going to take New England to cover. I’m sorry, but their isn’t a right and wrong here.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker should payoff big time. If you own any Cardinals, based on their performances in the Philly game, I’m afraid Breaston and Fitzgerald are better options than Boldin. That’s the advantage of playing at a cold weather university. Right now, both these offenses are producing points in a myriad of ways. Depending on how you think Arizona will fare playing in New England, you can make a case for any and all of them considering both defenses are susceptible to giving up big plays.

TAMPA BAY -3.5 San Diego
Line Pick: We said it before and we’ll say it again, we hate picking games with that involve the Chargers. But since both are still vying for playoff spots (one realistically and one speciously) we’re going to go with resume and the home team. Take the points, and just expect Jon Gruden to coach circles around Norv Turner.

Fantasy Advice: Cadillac is slowly easing his way into regular rotation, but I think you can still get one more solid week out of Dunn, especially against this Merriman-less defense. Bryant should have a big game with Garcia coming back and for whatever reason, we like Jerramy Stevens to produce in this game. Probably because the Chargers have less defensive tenacity than one of the defenses from the Teen Wolf montage.

Alright, that’s probably it for the day. Back tomorrow with the second half of this weekend’s games.