Fantasy Football

For the sake of posterity, we’re going to follow the same format we did for the divisional playoff previews, because that went so swimmingly.

Philly’s Outlook: Reportedly Andy Reid isn’t even allowing his team to watch footage from their Thanksgiving throttling of the Cardinals, because if recent history is any indication, that game took place on Neptune. I like this strategy, when nothing about the entity with which you are employed makes sense anymore, defy all conventional wisdom. Not to mention that that games was played in an arctic monsoon, it won’t really have the same pace as a match up between the same two teams indoors at University of Phoenix Stadium (I can’t begin to explain how fortunate Arizona is in this regard).

That said, I think Philly would have beaten Arizona anywhere on fateful Thanksgiving night. When the final score is 48-20, that definitely lends to the theory that if you’re not the better team in general, then you were definitely the better team at the time. Unfortunately, since this is the NFL, all that means is you are all the more susceptible to a loss at the next go-around. Basically, they are going to have to defy the odds to win on Sunday.

How do we suspect they do that? Well, if Donovan McNabb continues to be sub-par on 1st and 2nd down but deliver on 3rd, that sounds like the fitting stake they can drive into the hearts of the Cardinals, being that Arizona hasn’t had to overcome even a modicum of adversity in these playoffs. Also, Philly’s defense is considerably better than either Atlanta’s or Carolina’s; and I certainly hope that the Eagles aren’t underestimating the Cardinals like the two teams before them.

The odd thing about the Eagles in the past two games, however, is that the team has historically gone the way of Brian Westbrook. He was completely ineffectual against the Giants, and if it wasn’t for one screen pass that turned into a 70 yard touchdown everyone would say the same thing about his performance against the Vikings. But despite his considerable shortcomings, they’ve managed to win both games convincingly. With word coming out that he tweaked his ankle in the Giants game (though when doesn’t Westbrook tweak something?), one would assume they need him to beat the Cardinals since he broke off four touchdowns against them on Thanksgiving (being an unsuspecting fantasy victim of that is etched into my mind). But since they’ve done it without him against what many would assume to be far superior teams, it’s anyone’s ball game.

Basically, if the Eagles go into this game with a semblance of determination and do not take the Cardinals lightly, they should win fairly convincingly.

Arizona’s Outlook: The argument for the Cardinals seems to be that they’re a team of destiny. The win against the Falcons and the implosion of Jake Delhomme would seem to suggest as much. But can’t the same thing be said about the Eagles? Whose turnaround has been just as unexpected, even if it wasn’t as abrupt? I guess the question really is, whose destiny was to make the NFC title game and whose was to make/win the Superbowl? (Because questions like this are so logical)

I’ll let you know where I am siding in a second, but the Cardinals do have some things going for them. 1) They’re still the underdog. It has been a good year for the underdog in the 2008/09 NFL playoffs. As of now, they’re 6-2 in not just covering, but outright winning. In addition, both these teams have thrived off playing the “no one respects us” card as a motivator. The Cardinals still have this to their advantage, the Eagles do not. Unfortunately for them, they’re playing a team that’s even more of a fluke than they are.

2) They’re at home. Look, I know the Cardinals went out east and refuted all the naysayers who said they didn’t have a chance just because Arizona was 0-5 when on the Atlantic coast and Carolina was 8-0 at home (what tediousness). But it generally doesn’t drop below freezing in Charlotte, North Carolina. Come January in Philadelphia, you’re lucky if it stays above 20. And despite Arizona’s epic collapse at the end of the season taking place all over the country, their two worst games were at New England and at Philly. In other words, count your blessings, everyone associated with Arizona, that the second half of the NFL’s playoff seeding rarely makes any sense.

Speaking of people who are ecstatic that this game is in Arizona...

3) The team they’re playing is only 9-6-1. So far they’ve upset two teams from the NFC South that were 11-5 and 12-4 respectively. The Eagles regular season tribulations are widely reported and almost served as a springboard for their two week playoff run (they beat the Giants in week fifteen, took a week off against the Redskins and lost, then clobbered the Cowboys in week 17. It was truly inspiring). Conventional wisdom would suggest that this bodes well for the Cardinals.

ESPN Manufactured Storylines: Can Donovan McNabb with the “big one”? Is Kurt Warner’s playoff experience a factor? Can Anquan Boldin’s chiropractor cure cancer? Is Edgerrin James going to leave the Cardinals? Does DeSean Jackson upset small children with his self-boasting? Just how unsportsmanlike is Donovan McNabb and what goes on in his head? Because, you know, Donovan McNabb has such an extensive history of questionable on-field behavior. I’ll never forget the time he body slammed Terrell Owens in 2004.

Fantasy Implications: If you’re still reading this site for fantasy football all I can do is apologize. The URL has gotten very misleading in the past few weeks. In short: I expect a high scoring affair rivaled only by the Kurt Warner teams of old in St. Louis. Depending on how many moves you have left in the NFL.com Fantasy Playoff Challenge Extravaganza, I would put all my stock in this game except for my kicker and defense (Jeff Reed & Pittsburgh are the other viable options here) and fill the void in the Superbowl left by my vanquished players.

The Pick: If you can’t tell from the contrarian mess that was written up until this point, I’m not really taking this even a little seriously anymore. Earlier I asked which is the team of destiny to make the Superbowl and which to make the NFC Title game earlier. Well, since Arizona hadn’t won a home playoff game in 61 years and this will be the Eagles fifth NFC title game in eight seasons, it feels like Arizona’s destiny has already been met. I am taking Philly to win and to cover the four points they’re getting. It has been an unfathomable run for the Cardinals, but you can put asterisks next to both of their wins thus far (even if the win in Carolina was impressive).

Then again, this might be McNabb’s and Andy Reid’s fate: Relegated too good to great seasons but no Superbowl wins. To say the least, I can totally envision a scenario in which Arizona earns their trip to Tampa, but for a team that has won two games based on multiple freak occurrences that have constantly played in their favor, I have to take the Eagles.

AFC title preview tomorrow.