Fantasy Football

Well, we actually covered last night, but how in the world was it so close? Indy’s supposed to be one of three teams in the AFC with a legitimate shot at winning the Superbowl, not someone who needs 4th quarter rallies and blind luck to beat a teams like the Jags and Lions. But anyhow, from a fantasy perspective, it was a good night for your truly. I was sporting a Dallas Clark, Peyton Manning & Maurice Jones-Drew combination the likes of which I haven’t seen all season.

We’ll put this in perspective: in an average week, you’re all but guaranteed to win your game if you can amass upwards of around 140 points (I think only twice has someone eclipsed this number and still lost). After the performances of those three, I am currently on pace to score 250. Sorry for the bit of self-aggrandizement, but I’m sure some of you can also feel quite content about the onslaught of fantasy production last night.

Alright, only seven afternoon/Sunday/Monday night games. Whenever I write this post, I tend to wear out towards the end. Because at the very least, the manner in which we doll out fantasy advice is the same for each game, just with different names. Really, I can’t imagine there is anything I could say that will change your mind, so I just mail in some bullshit about what I expect to happen in each game, which is no more or less valid than anyone else’s bullshit. So, with that said, here’s my line picks and some fantasy “analysis” that took us roughly five minutes to conjure up.

DENVER -7 Buffalo
Line Pick: So, the Broncos are supposed to cover a touchdown with that defense. Am I missing something? I know Buffalo isn’t making the playoffs, but have they been getting blown out by average teams lately? Their last three losses have been 27-31, 16-3 and 10-3. The 16-3 game came at the hands of the Dolphins, and I’m willing to bet that Denver’s defense hasn’t held anyone under 29 points all season. I’ll take the points, though it seems too obvious.

Fantasy Advice: With that said, Cutler has been deadly at mile high and they’re starting to run thin at running back with their backup fullback now out for the season. If you want to gamble on Tatum Bell, be my guest. But you deserve to have your luggage stolen if you do. Buffalo is a sea of unreliable middle-tier players (Even Marshawn Lynch only has 7 touchdowns). But going against Denver, it’s a fire sale. I’d start Brandom Stokley if it wasn’t for my bias against white receivers not named Wayne Chrebet or Wes Welker.

Houston -7 OAKLAND
Line Pick: Well, I guess I have to start taking Houston seriously now. Seven points against the Raiders? Sounds like a go. On a side note, who the hell are the Raiders going to draft this off-season? Michael Crabtree? James Lauranitis? Some lineman we can’t name at the moment? Is there an aspect of their team that doesn’t need addressing? Personally, if I’m a Raiders fan, I like the notion of taking a quarterback as a second or third round pick. Just not Tebow in the first round (which given the way management has drafted, is something you might see yourself worrying about).

He'd look pretty good not producing in the silver and black because the franchise that drafted him is dysfunctional. Am I right?

Fantasy Advice: Yeah, everyone involved with the Texans passing game and Steve Slaton are mandatory starts, Oakland is a wasteland for fantasy football. We’ve made similar statements about other teams and players yesterday, but if you would consider starting any Raiders, you probably aren’t still in the playoffs anyhow. So don’t worry about it.

New York Jets -4.5 SEATTLE
Line Pick: Hmm, the Jets have been trudging along these past three weeks, in fact the only reason they haven’t lost three in a row was Buffalo inexplicably squandered away a win against them last Sunday. Actually, forget that. Buffalo squandering away wins is kind of there MO. There is nothing inexplicable about it. But still, this is the Seahawks we’re talking about. Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, it might be good enough to beat the Rams in St. Louis, but if Favre loses this week 16 game in a tight playoff race, it might the last nail that finally motivates him to hang it up. And since we’re convinced he’s never going to retire, we like the Jets to cover.

Fantasy Advice: I guess we can officially say we drafted Thomas Jones in the second round a year too early. It’s amazing what having a healthy threat at quarterback can do for a running back’s numbers, isn’t it? Anyhow, I like him and Leon Washington this week, along with Dustin Keller. On the Seahawks side of the ball: see my overview of the Raiders. Alright, maybe Deon Branch is a reasonable option, but we recommend against it.

MINNESOTA -3.5 Atlanta
Line Pick: We’re still waiting for this Vikings team to drop a tough game, but it has been four weeks now and every win has been convincing. We are hesitant to take any NFC South team on the road as stated ad nauseam here. What I need is a moment of clarity with this one.
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Alright, I’ll take Atlanta to cover but for Minnesota to win. Two teams that primarily run the ball and play relatively physical defense, a close margin of victory seems plausible, if not probable. Even still, just stay away from this one unless you’re on some sort of Nick Cage in Leaving Las Vegas conclusion.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I hate stating the obvious but both running backs are a go. Speaking of which, I like Adrian Peterson as the MVP this year, especially if they end up winning the division. The guy is probably going to break 1,600 yards with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson as his quarterback. Every team knows he’s running the ball, and yet virtually no team has been able to stop him. In short, he isn’t the standard, expendable running back that could be replaced with a 4th round draft pick in 2009. He’s a game changer, the likes of which I don’t think we’ve seen since Barry Sanders (though they have completely different running styles). Usually it’s about the machine, but in this case, Peterson is the machine.

Philadelphia -5 WASHINGTON
Line Pick: Why the hell is this a 4PM game? Anyway, outside of the NFC South teams, virtually everyone in the NFL is comparable on the road vs. at home, except for Washington. This team seems to be considerably worse when playing at RFK or whatever it’s called now. Still, Philly — despite three impressive wins in a row now — doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in me; but we don’t seem to have any other options. I hate to make such an uninspired prediction, but we’ll take the Eagles to cover five against the Redskins.

Fantasy Advice: Washington is turning into what everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season (Plug in “We are who we thought they were!” jokes here). And last time they played Philly, the Eagles completely shut out Santana and most of the passing game, except for Cooley. I like Cooley and potentially Portis if anyone can guarantee that he won’t walk onto the field dressed like Greenman. For the Eagles, they seemed to spread the ball around a little more against Cleveland, but like we mentioned earlier this week, Cleveland can make anyone look like a pro-bowler. Stick with the stalwarts (basically just Westbrook), and maybe Curtis or Jackson if you’re feeling frisky. Hey, what does Reggie Brown have to do to get cut from this team? He’s in James Thrash/Todd Pinkston territory at this point.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 Carolina
Line Pick: Yeah, they’ve let me down the past couple weeks, but Carolina’s bandwagon is mighty crowded right now. To be quite honest we’re surprised the Panthers aren’t favored. But Vegas appears to know better, and that the skewed perception of them is the result of two home blowouts against Tampa and Denver, and a road win against an apparently overrated Green Bay team, though it was impressive at the time. Still, there are a lot of caveats to these games that make the wins look much more impressive than they really are. Namely, the Packers blow and Carolina is 8-0 at home to explain the two most recent wins. In fact they haven’t had a close game yet against any respectable team on the road, which is what the Giants are with or without Burress. We’ll lay the points and expect the Giants to reclaim their thrown as front runners.

Fantasy Advice: I like Williams, Jacobs and Ward a lot more than I like Jonathan Stewart, who personifies Carolina’s struggles away from Charlotte. Hixon and Toomer should be serviceable. Or rather, if the Giants are actually going to cover three points, they’re going to have to be. I’d stay away from Muhsin Muhammad if at all possible (note: we don’t think it’s possible for us) and whatever wide outs Carolina is sporting not named Steve Smith; as we’re inclined to think Delhomme wets the bed on Sunday night.

Chicago -4 Green Bay
Line Pick: Did Matt Forte break his fibula last game? Why is this only four, especially with some of the less favorable lines the Pack have been getting against lesser opponents? Something’s afoot, or maybe it’s just the snowfall in the desert that’s fucking with everyone. Oh, that’s why. Right before Green Bay began this descent into complete shittery they shellacked the Bears 37-3 and everyone was declaring them the best team in the NFC not in the East. Anyhow, we’re still taking Chicago to dish out some comeuppance from that ridiculous performance.

Fantasy Advice: I’d stay away from Donald Driver (Again, I don’t know if we can) and anyone not named Greg Jennings on the Packers. Chicago doesn’t offer much other than Forte in the way of fantasy either. Put it this way, if you’re relying on this game to amount in a fantasy comeback for you, then I recommend watching a movie while it’s on.

Alright, that’s probably it for the week. Enjoy the games should we part ways until Monday.