Fantasy Football

Alright, we managed to find the time to post the first half of our picks today. So brace yourselves, the holidays are about to get explicit. And by explicit, I mean slightly sarcastic and pessimistic. Oh yeah, it’s going to be crazy.

Also, I know the holidays are a time for self-reflection and giving. So I would just like that reflect on the fact that I went 11-5 last week, and give anyone who actually reads this site some more advice to put them in the red. We didn’t do so hot in the Sunday afternoon-Monday night games (a shittastic 3-4), but damn near swept the Thursday night-early Sunday games (a virile 8-1, God damn, Niners. I’m probably the first person all season that this team actually induced anger rather than pity from).

That brings our season (AKA five week) record to 43-33-4. I know it’s completely invalid to make exceptions like this, but if you took out our one losing week, we’d be sporting a 38-24-2 record. Not to be too self-aggrandizing, but if you had put $50 on every game and taken our picks for those four weeks and for some reason didn’t heed our advice in week 15, you’d be up a little less than $700. Again, you’re welcome.

Anyhow, onto the picks. These are always tentative because you have to adjust your expectations based on who is going to rest their starters and who isn’t. Usually you can make an educated guess, as an example: I suspect this Titans-Colts game might be a race to see whose least interested in winning. I certainly wouldn’t use it as a barometer for whose going to the Superbowl.

ATLANTA -14.5 St. Louis
Line Pick: This Rams team has really been pissing me off as of late. I don’t think I’ve correctly picked for or against them in the past three weeks, and its usually been some fluky bullshit as to why not. But with Atlanta soundly in the playoffs, I think I like St Louis to cover. That is lacking confidence to be sure, because this Rams team is awful and the Falcons might want to put on a spectacle for the home crowd. But St. Louis is going to be trying, as they seem to like Jim Haslett enough to want to convince management to keep him around. I have no idea how you justify that, though. Either putting money on this or keeping Haslett.

Fantasy Advice: Well, I like Jerious Norwood to just wreck this already hobbling St. Louis defense. While Atlanta might want to win convincingly, there is no doubt in my mind that their going to play it safe with both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. If you are actively participating in a championship game, bench virtually everyone whose isn’t in a contest contingent on making the playoffs. On the St. Louis side I can’t recommend anyone. There are too many available replacement players and backups that would serve you better than anything the Rams can guarantee.

New England -6.5 BUFFALO
Line Pick: Now this is dicey. I could totally see a scenario where Buffalo closes out the season being bracket buster to both the Patriots and the Broncos, getting their fans all riled up as the season winds down, then either moving to Toronto or having an epic collapse from their current state of mediocrity in 2009. On the other hand, this is the Patriots competing for a playoff spot against a team that is 1-5 in division. We’ll take the Pats to win by roughly ten or twelve, and get snubbed from the playoffs while a team they trounced last week by 37 hosts a wild card game.

Fantasy Advice: I don’t know, we’ll definitely find out how similar to Tom Brady Matt Cassel can be in this game. Basically you can’t go wrong with any of the stalwarts in this game. But since they run four different running backs and are playing a team a tad more interested than the Cardinals, I’d stay away from all of them. Also, I’m a little concerned about the Bills. I have no idea the strength of Belichick’s will, and if he wants to clobber his opponent in this game just so he and Boston Sports Nation can get all petulant about not being in the playoffs, then I’m afraid that is completely possible. Much like the Rams, I’d probably avoid every player on the Bills.

CINCINNATI -3 Kansas City
Line Pick: These are two teams that have looked a little more lively just in time for the season to end. We have no idea how motivated either of them are going to be, but we’ll take the Chiefs solely because they’re getting points. Also, Cinncy might be a little over-confident after being the fifth consecutive defense to shut out the Browns. I wish I was kidding.

Fantasy Advice: This seems like the type of game that Housh would shine in, and that KC defense has a lot of holes. You probably aren’t going to go wrong with either him or Benson. For KC, do we have any idea who there go to guy in the backfield is? Is it Larry Johnson? I swear I haven’t heard his name mentioned for about two months now. Go Dwayne Bowe or do not even bother with this team.

If it wasn't for that Lions game, this game might induce the most suicides. Now both franchises can just thank God they're not the Lions or Packers.

GREEN BAY -9.5 Detroit
Line Pick: The sadists game of the week. We do not care how bad this Lions team is, we expect them to at least come out of the gate with some intensity. Hopefully that will carry over into the second half. We’ll take them to cover, and potentially (but probably not) beat a Green Bay team that just might consider the 2008 affair a disappointment. I can’t bet on this game, though. It feels immoral. Almost like wagering on bum fights or something.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Smith should be useful, as should Calvin Johnson. We don’t want to get to excited with recommending you start Detroit Lions, though. For the Packers, as is the case with every team playing the Lions, everyone is a viable candidate. With Green Bay’s receivers, it’s tough to pick just one. We say you hedge your bets on this. If you have Greg Jennings, also plug in James Jones to improve your position with Aaron Rodgers.

Tennessee -3 INDIANAPOLIS
Line Pick: This might be the closest thing to a circus we’ve seen from two playoff bound teams. Both Jeff Fisher and Tony Dungy are way too pragmatic to actually give a shit about making a week 17 “statement”. Let me put it this way, whoever wins this game will probably lose if they square off again in the post-season. At least if both teams are trying. Since Indy seems to have struggled regularly with pedestrian teams (Lions, Jags, Browns, Chargers, Texans), well take the Titans to cover. Though there is no way we’re taking Indy to beat them in the playoffs so don’t listen to us. We’re a walking bag of contradictions.

Fantasy Advice: Anthony Gonzalez. That’s all I’m going to say for the Colts. He seems to be their only offensive weapon that is listed as questionable/probable/doubtful every week, so the risk in playing him is considerably lower. Also: Dallas Clark. Who was for this the first time since his injury listed as questionable for last weeks game against the Jags. As a result he ripped off over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. For the Titans, this might be a LenDale White special. If it starts to get embarrassing (for him and the Titans), they might put in a third stringer or even Johnson for a handful of carries. Really, though, I like White going against this run defense.

MINNESOTA -6.5 New York Giants
Line Pick: Uhhh, I know they’ve clinched everything but this is still the Giants that the Vikings are playing, right? You know, the same Giants that went full throttle in week 17 against the Pats last year even though they couldn’t improve their position as the 6th seed in the NFC. Given, the circumstances are different. But the idea of the Giants being a 6.5 point dog is a little too much for me to accept when Tavaris Jackson is quarterbacking the opposing team. I’ll roll the dice on the team that has nothing to play for, simply because I think should they meet again, the Giants would rather play the Bears than a team with Adrian Peterson coming out of the backfield.

Fantasy Advice: Well, Adrian Peterson, of course. Ahmad Bradshaw (who’s a perfectly suitable starter, much less a backup) should see a lot more carries than usual. Derrick Ward needs 52 yards to break 1,000, so that might be incentive for Coughlin to play him more than he should, unless the front office intervenes because there’s a bonus to be had if he breaks that milestone. It’s a judgment call, really. I also like both tight ends for differing reasons.

Carolina -3 NEW ORLEANS
Line Pick: Yeah, we like New Orleans to win this outright. We still are not all that enamored of Carolina, especially on the road. And New Orleans is still trying to put Drew Brees over the 5,000 yard mark for the season. Not to mention they’re 6-1 at home (accounting for all but one of their wins) and have an offense that’s as potent as any in the league. Oh, and Carolina’s coming off a game where they gave up over 300 yards on the ground. I don’t care who you are, if you’re giving up that many rushing yards, then I expect to see a Lions or Chiefs logo next to your name, not an emblem that indicates you’ve already clinched a playoff spot.

Fantasy Advice: Everyone seems to be a viable candidate in this game. I would steer clear of Jonathan Stewart, however. I know the Saints have a shaky run defense, but he’s not exactly himself without the cozy confines of whatever you call the stadium the Panthers play in. But yeah, Thomas, Williams, Smith, Muhammad, Moore, Colston: You have the green light on all of them.

PITTSBURGH -10.5 Cleveland
Line Pick: I have no idea if the Steelers are still playing for anything and frankly I don’t care. Not only are they at home and these two are pretend rivals, Cleveland couldn’t muster a single field goal against the Bengals in their own stadium, much less a touchdown. I fully expect the Browns to finish this season without having scored and offensive touchdown in the last six weeks of it. My God. You know, I am always hesitant to claim something best/worst of all time, usually because it sounds simple-minded and impossible to quantify. But with Ken Dorsey lining up under center, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team worse than these Cleveland Browns. And yes, I am including this years Lions, who I think would mop the floor with Cleveland if they were fortunate enough to be playing them on Sunday.

Fantasy Advice: Whichever Steelers running back is healthy because everyone will want to get this over and done with as quickly as possible. If Cleveland is going to score, it won’t be via Braylon Edwards that does it. I do not like any of these players going up against Pittsburgh’s defense, but you might be able to find a dark horse in Josh Cribbs or Jerome Harrison. Especially if Crennel would go out with a little foresight and given his options, play Cribbs at quarterback. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

TAMPA BAY -13 Oakland
Line Pick: Much to our chagrin, JaMarcus Russell has looked surprisingly adequate the past couple weeks. But with Tampa vying for a playoff spot at home I have to take them to cover. Especially since they lost 34-7 in the last road game they played. And that was just down the coastline. Oakland is traveling cross country and playing a 1PM EST game. That’s just cruel.

Fantasy Advice: Well, all of a sudden Tampa is running three running backs between Dunn, Graham and Williams. So your guess is as good as mine. Antonio Bryant is the closest thing to a lock on this Buccaneers team. Take that for what its worth. On Oakland: No one. Unless Johnnie Lee Higgins comes through for all us loyal members of Raider nation.

HOUSTON -2.5 Chicago
Line Pick: Houston seems to be one of the few teams that excels at home compared to on the road, but the Bears are playing for the playoffs. In short, I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Just because it wouldn’t make any sense based on what happened in week 16, I’m taking the Texans to cover and follow through on the back-to-back 8-8 seasons that I’m sure Texans fans fucking love. But this is one game I’d avoid like the Sex and The City movie.

Fantasy Advice: Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson always perform. Even against defenses as staunch as Chicago’s. Ironically we’d stay away from Matt Schaub, as we see him throwing 2-3 interceptions this game. Matt Forte is about the only player on Chicago anyone can ever recommend. If anyone ever tells you to start Devin Hester and attempts to give some long-winded explanation as to why, stop him in his tracks and tell him he’s an asshole. This might seem harsh, but there is no reason for anyone to ever have a “hunch” about someone like Devin Hester on this Bears team. Greg Olsen is pretty much the only other player you can take a risk on.

Alright, that’s it for the 1PM games. 4PM and prime timers later today.