Fantasy Football

Now that I have given you a better understanding of the Yards Per Touch statistic (YTP), and why it is important when assessing the running back position, it is now time to add the Points Per Touch (PPT) statistic to the mix. While YPT will tell us what players are eating up chunks of yardage from goal line to goal line, PPT will give us an indication of who is both racking up yards and hitting paydirt.

PPT (in this case) is calculated using a standard fantasy RB scoring system, with 1 point being awarded for every 10 yards rushing, 1 point being awarded for every 10 yards receiving, and 6 points being awarded for every touchdown scored. To get the PPT statistic using the standard scoring system, we simply divide an individual RBs total rushing yards by 10, divide total receiving yards by 10, and multiply their touchdowns by 6. Those 3 numbers are then added together for the RBs total points, which is then divided by the RBs total touches (Carries+Receptions), to get Points Per Touch.

Total Points= (Rushing Yards/10) + (Receiving Yards/10) + (Touchdowns*6)
PPT= (Total Points/Total Touches)

While PPT does take yards into account, essentially the final statistic is heavily weighted on the amount of TDs scored, as is almost every fantasy football league in existence. Just as we did with the YPT figure, let’s take a look at the 2006 PPT numbers (from best to worst) for all RBs with over 100 touches.

Low YPT and PPT numbers indicate that Rudi Johnson is overrated.

Marion Barber III- 1.15 PPT (158 touches)
Maurice Jones-Drew- 1.07 PPT (212 touches)
Brandon Jacobs- 1.04 PPT (107 touches)
LaDainian Tomlinson- 1.04 PPT (404 touches)
Brian Westbrook- 0.81 PPT (317 touches)
Corey Dillon- 0.81 PPT (214 touches)
Clinton Portis- 0.77 PPT (144 touches)
Jerious Norwood- 0.77 PPT (111 touches)
Steven Jackson- 0.76 PPT (436 touches)
Mike Bell- 0.74 PPT (177 touches)
Reggie Bush- 0.74 PPT (243 touches)
Larry Johnson- 0.73 PPT (457 touches)
Correll Buckhalter- 0.73 PPT (107 touches)
Frank Gore- 0.73 PPT (373 touches)
Willie Parker- 0.73 PPT (368 touches)
Joseph Addai- 0.71 PPT (266 touches)
Kevin Jones- 0.70 PPT (242 touches)
Laurence Maroney- 0.69 PPT (197 touches)
Fred Taylor- 0.69 PPT (254 touches)
Deuce McAllister- 0.68 PPT (274 touches)
Leon Washington- 0.66 PPT (176 touches)
Cedric Benson- 0.64 PPT (165 touches)
Ladell Betts- 0.64 PPT (298 touches)
Vernon Morency- 0.61 PPT (107 touches)
DeAngelo Williams- 0.61 PPT (154 touches)
Ron Dayne- 0.60 PPT (165 touches)
Cedric Houston- 0.60 PPT (120 touches)
Travis Henry- 0.59 PPT (288 touches)
Rudi Johnson- 0.59 PPT (364 touches)
Wali Lundy- 0.59 PPT (157 touches)
Ronnie Brown- 0.58 PPT (274 touches)
Ahman Green- 0.57 PPT (312 touches)
Sammy Morris- 0.55 PPT (113 touches)
Kevan Barlow- 0.54 PPT (138 touches)
Willis McGahee- 0.54 PPT (277 touches)
Chester Taylor- 0.54 PPT (345 touches)
Jamal Lewis- 0.54 PPT (332 touches)
Dominic Rhodes- 0.53 PPT (223 touches)
Julius Jones- 0.53 PPT (276 touches)
Warrick Dunn- 0.52 PPT (308 touches)
Thomas Jones- 0.52 PPT (332 touches)
Shaun Alexander- 0.52 PPT (264 touches)
Lamont Jordan- 0.51 PPT (124 touches)
Anthony Thomas- 0.49 PPT (129 touches)
Tatum Bell- 0.49 PPT (257 touches)
DeShaun Foster- 0.48 PPT (259 touches)
Reuben Droughns- 0.47 PPT (247 touches)
Edgerrin James- 0.46 PPT (375 touches)
Justin Fargas- 0.42 PPT (191 touches)
Carnell Williams- 0.41 PPT (255 touches)
Maurice Morris- 0.38 PPT (172 touches)

As expected, just about every TD producer in the league is near the top of the PPT list. Once again, just as the case with YPT, the more touches a RB had, the more impressive a high PPT number becomes.

Given both YPT and PPT for every RB in the league, and taking all factors that lead to these statistics into consideration, it becomes much easier to make educated picks on draft day rather than to simply make guesses. From the numbers, we can see that Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the most explosive RBs in the NFL when he touches the ball. Not only did he average 6.5 yards every time he touched the rock last season, he averaged over 1 fantasy point as well. Considering that the Jaguars offense remains very much the same in 2007, there is no reason to suggest Jones-Drew won’t be able to repeat his 227 total points (ranked 7th) from last season. If anything, the second year back could see his workload increase, which would likely make him a top 5 RB in ‘07. Once again, he is currently the 15th RB coming off the board according to ESPN’s average draft list, which makes absolutely zero sense.

Rudi Johnson is a prime example of how breaking down YPT and PPT from last season can help you tremendously on draft day. His YPT(3.94) and PPT(0.59) are pathetic for a RB featured in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Johnson is a fantasy product of the Bengals offense, and of the amount of touches he receives, and that is the bottom line. As long as Johnson gets his 350+ touches in ‘07, he shouldn’t have any problem equaling his 214 total points from ‘06 (ranked 8th). However, when you contemplate that Jones-Drew surpassed Johnson in total points in ‘06 while touching the ball 152 less times, it puts into perspective just how unproductive Rudi is when he gets the pigskin. Drafting a RB in the first round that continuously shows low levels of YPT and PPT production is like playing with fire, and sometime in the next few seasons, owners will get burned with Johnson. My advice if you’re thinking about taking Johnson? Pass on Rudi, take Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush, or Laurence Maroney around the same time. Another strategy would be to pass on Rudi, take your top ranked receiver (mine is Chad Johnson), and draft a guy like Brandon Jacobs one or two rounds later. Jacobs shows outstanding YPT(5.35) and PPT(1.04) production, and should get close to 300 touches in ‘07 with Tiki Barber now talking politics. With this strategy, there is a good chance you will end up with a RB in Jacobs that will equal Rudi’s points, and you will have a stud WR to boot.

I will tie everything together tomorrow by revealing my overall RB rankings, along with my sleeper and bust predictions.

Saturday, August 18 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
Sunday, August 19 Blog: Draft Strategy, Take the Best Available Player