Fantasy Football

Sometimes when I make predictions, I occasionally go back to see just how inept/clairvoyant I am. It seems like I am shooting about 50%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. It really depends on how you measure these things. For instance, I may have been right about Steve Breaston having a big week on Sunday, but I was incorrect about two other people on the same list. That would give me a 60% average for that particular post. However, you certainly do not quantify that the same as you would, say, predicting the NFL landscape for the entire season ahead. That might be weighted a little more heavily than a run of the mill top five we do here.

This is me on my good days, without the fake third nipple.

So remember when I railed for my first fucking week on this site about how expendable running backs are in the NFL, thus rendering them expendable in fantasy football? And that a top-tier receiver is actually more of an asset given the direction the league is heading in offensively? Yeah, well it turns out that is completely wrong. Not in the sense that the league is more pass oriented, but that it is so pass oriented everyone seems to be running three wide sets with a receiving tight end and a running back coming out of the backfield, so the ball is spread out to the point that even a Terrell Owens or Steve Smith or Greg Jennings is a week to week roll of the dice.

Now, there are obviously receivers having good seasons. Most of them surprisingly good: Roddy White, Santana Moss, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall etc. But with the format we use to score my league, there are currently only 13 receivers that have gone over 100 points, compared to 18 running backs. And most of those games come in droves. Look at the receiving leader this year in fantasy: Santana Moss. He is leading the league in receiving, sure, but he has three games with under forty yards (no more than five catches in any of those), and was completely shut out with zero points in week five against the Eagles.

This isn’t to say that you won’t have letdown games from running backs either. But if you look at the current running back points leader Reggie Bush, the only game he failed to go over 20 points in was the one he didn’t play. And when a running back in the top twenty has a bad game, it usually means he is held to ten points in a horrendous loss or something. He isn’t completely shut out with nothing to show for it other than a couple dropped passes.

The bright side of this current dynamic is the plethora of available dark horse wide outs that will put up big games. Take my team for example. I lost my first four weeks, but have won my last four with big performances from Vincent Jackson, Donnie Avery and Muhsin Muhammad because they had those aberration weeks in which they got in the end zone, or capitalized on a team double teaming the lead wide out or loading up on the run. These three are making it look like I never drafted Braylon Edwards or Marques Colston in the 2nd and 4th rounds.

But on a week to week basis, who can account for that? I am starting Donnie Avery this week against the Cardinals. Now, I can’t rightfully bitch if he is completely shut out of the game. After all, he is Donnie Avery. No one off of Houston’s campus had any idea who the guy was a year ago. On the other hand, he has scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks on plays for 40 yards or more and I need a receiver with two receivers on bye weeks. How do I not put him in the starting roster?

Now part of my argument about running backs still stands: they are expendable because of frequent injury and unreliability. This season alone I’ve won weeks with Dominick Rhodes and Corell Buckhalter going for over 20 points. But the unreliability of receivers is different. They do not sustain injuries with the same frequency, but as explained above, their weeks are so inconsistent. How many weeks does Donnie Avery have to out score Torry Holt for this to be obvious?

If you are looking for a running back to compare all receivers to, then they are all basically LenDale White. White needs those goal line carries to make his week look respectable, just like every receiver needs those two or three freak plays to make their fantasy week worthwhile. It isn’t to the exact same extent, but that is the best comparison I can come up with. And any receiver can come out of nowhere to make every fantasy owner look like an asshole, because every quarterback in the league simply wants to move the ball downfield.

Basically, if you have a durable running back that isn’t giving up more than 30% of his team’s carries, that is probably your safest fantasy bet. But too many of them split carries 60-40 and too many receivers are used as decoys as often as they are actually thrown to. This makes the entire concept of applying strategy to fantasy football a fucking sham. And why we have preferred fantasy basketball for the past two years (despite finishing in the money in football).

In short, we’re all fucked. Your fucked. I’m fucked. Some guy’s girlfriend is going to end up winning your league because she drafted a dozen guys she thinks are bangable or some other cliched reason that you use to not give her any credit (whether she deserves any or not). If you are seeking out advice, I think your best option is to find about five different sources, then go with the median of what is advised and then throw caution to the wind. That’s probably the best advice you will hear all season.