Fantasy Football

When it comes to fantasy football forecasting, every owner has their own way of ranking players and positions. After all, correct forecasting is the key to drafting or auctioning a competitive team, isn’t it? Of course it is, but forecasting the upcoming fantasy season is not any easier than forecasting the future itself.

So…..how are you going about ranking your fantasy running backs for the 2007 National Football League season?

Are you simply looking at overall individual RB statistics from 2006? It could work.

Are you simply looking at how many points a RB scored in your league in 2006? It could work.

Are you simply buying a fantasy football magazine and taking its word as fact? Hey, it could work.

Are you breaking down individual RBs by their Yards Per Touch (YPT) and their Points Per Touch (PPT) in 2006? I’m telling you first hand, it does work.

Yards Per Touch is a very simple calculation, and it begins by adding together an individual RBs carries and receptions to get a number of total touches. That is followed by adding the RBs rushing yards with his receiving yards to get a number of total yards. Finally, the number of total yards is divided by the number of total touches, and we have the RBs Yards Per Touch.

In my mind, Yards Per Touch is the most significant statistic in determining how productive a fantasy RB was the previous season. The number simply tells us, on average, how many yards a RB was able to produce every time he touched the ball. Obviously, the higher the amount of touches a RB received, the more significant the number becomes.

Jones-Drew was a YPT machine in 2006.

Now that the explaining is over, lets take a look at the Yards Per Touch numbers (from best to worst) for every RB with over 100 touches in 2006.

Jerious Norwood- 6.62 YPT (111 touches)
Maurice Jones-Drew- 6.50 YPT (212 touches)
Brian Westbrook- 6.04 YPT (317 touches)
Frank Gore- 5.84 YPT (373 touches)
LaDainian Tomlinson- 5.75 YPT (404 touches)
Correll Buckhalter- 5.62 YPT (107 touches)
Fred Taylor- 5.46 YPT (254 touches)
Marion Barber III- 5.38 YPT (158 touches)
Reggie Bush- 5.38 YPT (243 touches)
Ladell Betts- 5.37 YPT (298 touches)
Steven Jackson- 5.35 YPT (436 touches)
Brandon Jacobs- 5.35 YPT (107 touches)
Joseph Addai- 5.29 YPT (266 touches)
DeAngelo Williams- 5.29 YPT (154 touches)
Leon Washington- 5.23 YPT (176 touches)
Kevin Jones- 5.00 YPT (242 touches)
Vernon Morency- 4.98 YPT (107 touches)
Sammy Morris- 4.97 YPT (113 touches)
Clinton Portis- 4.81 YPT (144 touches)
Larry Johnson- 4.81 YPT (457 touches)
Laurence Maroney- 4.77 YPT (197 touches)
Mike Bell- 4.72 YPT (177 touches)
Ronnie Brown- 4.69 YPT (274 touches)
Willie Parker- 4.66 YPT (368 touches)
Ahman Green- 4.59 YPT (312 touches)
Deuce McAllister- 4.58 YPT (274 touches)
Corey Dillon- 4.48 YPT (214 touches)
Travis Henry- 4.48 YPT (288 touches)
Julius Jones- 4.44 YPT (276 touches)
Tatum Bell- 4.44 YPT (257 touches)
Chester Taylor- 4.36 YPT (345 touches)
Wali Lundi- 4.33 YPT (157 touches)
Warrick Dunn- 4.25 YPT (308 touches)
Cedric Benson- 4.25 YPT (165 touches)
Ron Dayne- 4.18 YPT (165 touches)
Willis McGahee- 4.14 YPT (277 touches)
Thomas Jones- 4.11 YPT (332 touches)
Lamont Jordan- 4.10 YPT (124 touches)
DeShaun Foster- 4.08 YPT (259 touches)
Anthony Thomas- 4.01 YPT (129 touches)
Dominic Rhodes- 4.00 YPT (223 touches)
Rudi Johnson- 3.94 YPT (364 touches)
Justin Fargas- 3.93 YPT (191 touches)
Carnell Williams- 3.90 YPT (255 touches)
Maurice Morris- 3.78 YPT (172 touches)
Jamal Lewis- 3.76 YPT (332 touches)
Reuben Droughns- 3.75 YPT (247 touches)
Edgerrin James- 3.67 YPT (375 touches)
Shaun Alexander- 3.58 YPT (264 touches)
Cedric Houston- 3.48 YPT (120 touches)
Kevan Barlow- 2.83 YPT (138 touches)

Now, let’s break down a few factors that can contribute to a high or low YPT figure.

1. An extremely high or relatively low amount of total touches
2. A high or low percentage of receptions to touches (typically because Yards Per Catch are going to be higher than Yards Per Carry)
3. A productive or nonproductive offense
4. A solid or weak offensive line

Taking those factors into consideration, we can start to break down what these numbers mean for each player, and how it factors into ranking the RB position. For example, according to ESPN’s average draft picks, Shaun Alexander is the 5th running back coming off of the board as of now. Taking into consideration that Alexander was one of the worst RBs in the league at producing yards when he touched the ball in 2006, I find this hard to fathom. While I can appreciate the notion of a comeback season for Alexander, I can’t see a player who produced a measly 3.58 Yards Per Touch last season all of the sudden thwarting himself back into the top 5. If you want to ride Alexander in 2007 based on the fact that he was injured early in 2006, and the fact that the Seahawks still have a good offense, be my guest. I’ll gladly take Joseph Addai around the same time, who produced 5.29 YPT in 2006, plays in the Colts offense, and is going to see an increase in touches with Dominic Rhodes in Oakland.

Try this on for size. ESPN’s average draft sheet tells us that Maurice Jones-Drew is being drafted as the 15th best RB on the board, behind the likes of Rudi Johnson who is being taken as the 9th best back. In 2006, the rookie phenom Jones-Drew produced 6.5 YPT in his 212 touches, while Johnson produced only 3.94 YPT in his 364 touches. Not only did Jones-Drew destroy him in YPT, he also scored 3 more TDs than Johnson. To put it into perspective, Jones-Drew outscored Johnson in every standard RB league (1pt=10 yds rush, 1pt=10 yds rec, 6pts=TD) despite touching the ball 152 less times! While Johnson is likely to expect the same amount of Bengal touches this season, Jones-Drew’s number of touches should increase slightly, despite continuing to share the load with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville. So why is Johnson being selected 6 slots ahead of Jones-Drew in almost every draft? That is a great question, and one that I have trouble answering.

These are just a few examples of draft mistakes other owners are making that you should avoid. I will talk more about Yards Per Touch when comparing players and rankings in future blogs, which is why I spent so much time talking about it here.

Having said all of that regarding Yards Per Touch, it is only the first step in ranking the running back position. The YPT number doesn’t factor in the most important statistic in fantasy football, touchdowns. We have to take a close look at who is scoring them, why they are scoring them, and if they will continue to score them in the future. This is where the calculation of Points Per Touch will be significant, which will be the topic of my next blog.

Friday, August 17 Blog: Points Per Touch, The Touchdown Factor
Saturday, August 18 Blog: 2007 Fantasy Running Back Rankings